16
2011
Mets Are Who We Thought They Were
An article by XtreemIcon
I remember Denny Green’s blowup almost word for word because it’s my second favorite unintentionally hilarious sports rant I’ve ever seen. I would love to have used my all-time favorite, I’m a man, I’m 40! but it was apropos of nothing regarding this post. After defeating the Astros this afternoon, the Mets have now completed roughly 25% of their season and have a 19-21 record after 40 games. They’re tied for last in the division, but it’s too early to look at standings. I generally don’t look at standings for comparison, anyway. All the Mets should worry about is winning their games. If the Phillies or Braves or Marlins go 9-0 on a West coast swing, well good for them. Nothing the Mets could do about that. Yes, they’re tied for last, but the two best records in the league and three of the five best are the three teams the Mets are looking up at. 6.5 games out of first place isn’t as bad when you look at it that way. And the Mets are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card, even with the dismal pitching our fearless leader outlined here.
But the Mets, and their pitching, have been much better as of late. Since their lowest point in the season at 5-13, the Mets have won 14 of 22 games. What’s changed? They’re performing better, yes. But I think it’s got much more to do with the schedule than it does the players. After going 5-13, the Mets reeled off six straight over the span of three series against the Astros, Diamondbacks and Nationals, then lost two straight series to the Phillies and Giants, won a series against the Dodgers, then the Rockies (only the second series win against above-.500 teams this season), and followed up with clinching a series win against the Astros again today. Add it all up, and the Mets are 8-14 against teams above .500 and 11-7 against teams that are below .500.
And they should be.
Before the season began, there were predictions abound. I’ve heard some predicting the Mets would win 73 games, and some that thought the Mets could put it all together and win 87 games. Some thought 87 wins could put the Mets in the Wild Card hunt, but the Phils, Braves, Marlins, Cards, Reds, Giants and Rockies scoffed at that sentiment and are doing all they can to put the Wild Card threshold at around 92 wins. Point of fact, the Wild Card winner in the National League has never won fewer than 88 games and has only won fewer than 90 just one other time.
If the Mets are going to win only 73 games, it would have to be because of injuries. That’s not profound insight, that would be true of every team in baseball. But what makes it different for the Mets is that injuries to key players wouldn’t be a surprise. Would anyone be surprised if Beltran or Reyes misses significant time? Was anyone surprised when Bay opened the season on the DL? Was anyone surprised Young went down for the year? This is much different than the key players on other teams expected to contend. Everyone would be surprised if Halladay or Lincecum or Uggla or Tulo or Pujols or Votto missed significant time.
For the Mets to win 87 games, everything would have to have clicked, and clicked immediately. And no team ever has perfect luck, so it was a stretch to begin with. Beltran and Reyes would have to play 150 games. Wright would have to put up traditional All-Star numbers, Bay would have to have rebounded, K-Rod would have to have put last season’s end behind him, and Pelfrey, Thole, Dickey, Ike and Pagan would have to have improved on last season’s forward progress. Beltran, Reyes, K-Rod and Ike have obliged. But Pelfrey and Pagan have been atrocious, Dickey’s been only slightly better than that, Wright’s mired in a two-month slump, Thole seems to have regressed and as good as Ike’s been, his stupid mental mistake caused a DL stint that hurts the team. After a quarter of the season, it looks like the Mets can only dream about 87 wins and would need some Inception-style hocus pocus for a playoff berth to be considered.
This is not a turn of events, though. If you split the difference of 73 wins and 87 wins, you’d get 80 wins, two games under .500. And .500 was always going to be this team’s measure of success. As much as the handful of former All-Stars looked nice on paper, the entire 25-man roster would determine the success of the team, and you’re just not going to get a whole lot from your team if you have to replace 12 players on 10-12 million dollars. The Mets are spending more on the two players they cut than on the 12 players they signed.
The Mets were always going to win 78-81 games, barring divine intervention. They’re beating bad teams and losing to good ones. It’s the mark of an average team. So the next time you want to throw something through the TV because the Mets lost to a good team, or puff up your chest because they beat a bad one, remember that the writing was on the wall before the first pitch was even thrown.
About the Author: Jesse Elgarten
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They are also a better team then when were at the beginning of the season irregardless of the schedule, especially the bullpen
A very very small number of Met fans want to can the GM already. They will hop on anything they can though to make their point. Begin their revolt. Start the petition.
I cannot recall ever having people calling for such action just six weeks into the new administrations first season. Not the NYY under Bill Bergisch, Clyde King, Woody Woodward, Sid Thrift. No one was mentioning revolt and petition drives in Isaiah’s first 6 weeks.
The simple fact is that things haven’t gone well around here for a very, very long time. Anyone that thinks one division title and two wild cards in twenty two years is no cause for changing the way we operate is in denial.
If that were KC or Pittsburgh that would be easier to comprehend but the fact is we have experienced those results WHILE having the LARGEST PAYROLL in the entire League. How is that even remotely possible?
One of our three post season appearances was really due more to Cinncinatti losing three of their last four and us beating Pittsburgh on a walk off wild pitch the last day of the season. All three of our post season appearances were immediately preceeded by a Division rival giving us their best players. For the team with the largest payroll to require such generosity from smaller market teams to even make the playoffs the few times we have speaks volumns about the effectivenenss of our philosophy.
The one common denominator in the last twenty two years is our reliance on other teams, expensive, aging, past their prime, often times injured or unproductive, frequently surly former All Stars who we usually cannot even GIVE AWAY FOR NOTHING.
These shells of their former selves almost never leave behind any prospects or draft choices. They just recede from memory leaving behind very little except the lingering disapointment of their play here.
The constant reliance on smaller market teams generosity and “getting” whoever is available every year has spawned a new breed of baseball fan. The fantasy GM Fan who thinks you can just plug A into B and get C, never taking into account that the RedSox lineup is as similar to ours as Fenway is to Citi.
Going “for it” every year instead of formulating a plan to go for it every year, and sticking with it) is the very REASON we have had such putrid results over TWENTY TWO YEARS.
Now the small minority threatens a “revolt” and a petition drive to knock someone with a different plan out of the running because there was no aging Fat Mo under their Christmas Tree to get all excited about this year.
According to these revisionists every thing that goes well was due to Minaya. Everything that doesn’t is due to Alderson. “If we win it will be because of Omar’s guys.” Well no ****. With the way he ran up the payroll there was no room for anyone else. Far cry from when Minaya arrived and committed 180 M in his first year and could have gone at least as high as 240 M if he had got Delgado. Far cry from year two when he committed at least another 100 M. Of course that’s easier to do when you inherit 2 young cost controlled future All Stars.
“We should have gotten healthier pitchers.” You mean like Pedro, El-Duque, Escobar, Wagner, Putz and Maine?
“we should have spent a little more on pitching?” How could we? We spent 20M this year on Perez, Castillo and GMJ. Besides there were no Reddings, Lawrences, Williams, Lima’s or Livans to spark a pennant run this year.
“Alderson put together a bad bullpen.” You mean like Sosa, Mota, Schowenweiss, Kunz, Julio, Aybar, Ayala, and Sele?
AHHHH yes. The good old days. Good times, good times.
Revisionism. It’s here. It’s alive. It’s trying to drag us back to the “good old days”……….for good.
Revisionism. Alive and thriving. Threatening to short circuit a coherant plan to build a title contender.
One that doesn’t rely on forking over at least one early round draft choice for a Vince Coleman, Kevin Appier, David Weathers, Roger Cedeno, Moises Alou or Jason Bay.
After all who could be bothered developing a LFer when we can just go out and get one whenever we need to.
You could believe that, it’s your right and it’s not a poorly written piece. But nobody was predicting championship for the Giants last year till they manned up and did it. This is still baseball without a salary cap, so every year the Mets fail to make the playoffs is still a gross disappointment in my eyes. Wasting the biggest market in the league.
Nobody was predicting a championship for the Giants, this is very true, but it wasn’t a surprise to anyone that they won as many games as they did. Winning 92 games is often the Wild Card threshold, and just as often 90 wins is the NL West threshold. Once the Giants made the playoffs, it was all over. With that pitching, no one stood a chance in a short series. Winning a lot of games in the regular seasons is a lot more difficult than winning eleven in three separate short series, especially since pitching wins in the playoffs.
I think the Marlins, with Johnson, Nolacso and Sanchez, have a much better chance of winning the World Series once they make the playoffs than they do of actually making the playoffs. The Giants were the same way, but the NL West is always a toss-up division. I wasn’t they surprised they won that division, but I’d be shocked if the Marlins won the NL East this season.
You wrote: “If the Mets are going to win only 73 games, it would have to be because of injuries”.
I disagree – if the Mets are going to win only 73 games its because of their lack of pitching. I predicted them winning about 76 games back in March.
As you correctly pointed out, the ownership didn’t really invest in this year’s team – so only 73 wins would not surprise anyone.
tlagee, I really think the Mets, despite their uninspiring pitching, are better than 73 wins. It remains to be seen. I hope you’re wrong.
I Hope I’m wrong too but hell, they deserved to lose the game today…and I that was an extremely well pitched game.
Bay up, runner at third, one out. Strikes out. Knockes in that run and the game is over in regulation. Turner on second, nobody out (I think it was the bottom of the 9th) he doesn’t score because Pirdie can’t lay down a bunt.
Other chances too – it’s just very frustrating.
I had us at 76 wins due to ALL the questions. Last year we had a few career years I didn’t expect to be quite as good, thought Beltran and Bay would be in and out and never really get going for a good long period and I expected 2B to both cost us and surprise here and there. Then there was the lack of a frontline starter and questionable starting depth and there was a very good chance we would be sellers at the end of July.
That to me equaled 76 wins. 71 wouldn’t surprise me in the least but 81 would shock me so if anything I think I picked high.
I think Collins a few times has picked this teams up and saved it from tanking. That 3rd game in Atlanta was the first one. Immediately getting guys out of here who are not getting it done sets the tone and the manager going over mistakes right away has put this team on notice and that’s why their fun to watch. They play hard and want to over perform not like so many other teams who did the opposite over the last 20 years. Hopefully no one will go crying to Jeff and he starts undermining the manager again.
Some guys and things are working out better than I thought, others not as well. Same as every season. Rarely does everything go as well as it possibly can or haven’t you noticed.
You’re right. Never does a team have perfect luck, as I intimated in my post. I think Collins is the drill sergeant this team needed, even though I sometimes questions his strategies (like bunting with Turner yesterday).
In 2006, the Mets out-hit their pitching (who was still much better than the 2011 rotation), but didn’t have a real, legit front line starter, unless you were real high on an old Tom Glavine. The Mets are 5th in OBP this year so far and 4th in runs scored, which lines up well. They’re also 8th in slugging and that’s pretty respectable given the park they play in and the lineup they tend to trot out there. If they could keep themselves around those ranking all season, they’ll outscore a few teams and .500 could be a reality.
I hope your right X. I do think that Collins will force a new culture here and that alone will result in less give ups, lackadasical play and selfish AB’s.
He’s not above critisizing things in the media but he doesn’t call guys out in public either. The right blend of taskmaster and team first at the helm.
That, and the fact that guys are fighting for jobs rather than having a whole team of older veterans on long term guaranteed contracts will keep us away from 90+ losses.
Now if Beltran or K-Rod were to be traded the talent disparity would get worse but .500 isn’t as far away from the realm of possibilities as I first thought. Playing 19 against Philly and Atlanta isn’t going to make it easy though.
The Mets have a real tough summer ahead of them. Besides multiple series with the Phils, Braves and Fish, their interleague schedule is brutal (A’s, Rangers, Angels and Tigers besides the Yanks twice). They also head back out to SF and LA. Even thought they beat the Dodgers here, LA is a tough place for them to play. The Mets could finish under .500 simply by nature of their tough schedule.
I thought they could finish a few games over .500 with some luck. After the 5-13 sttart I had my doubts. Now I think they might win 81-83. Ho hum. But i am not angry. Low expectations for this year.
I’m not angry either. I’m glad we’re not hampering the payroll for years to come on just whoever happens to be available.
If the right guys not available don’t sign the wrong guy just to look like your trying. The fact is we have signed the wrong guy many, many times over the last two decades and not only has it prevented us from winning this year, it prevented us from winning in subsequent years too.
This whole philosophy of “who are we going to get for (insert 5-10 positions) this year, every year hasn’t worked out very well or haven’t you noticed?
What kind of a plan is that?
It’s a plan that seeks to make up for the lack of work done five to ten years before.
In other words it’s no plan at all.
I agree X, They are what they are, but what are they really?
The team is a better team than last year save the fact the pitching has struggled.
If the Pitching comes back they have a shot but we need to remember that the team we have right now is probably not the team we are going to end the season with.
I belive they can win more than just 73 games this year as they are now but in two months we may not have Beltran and some other key players to help us maintain that possibility.
I certainly am not dissapointed in thier season so far as you said it was kind of what we expected.
We have seen Ike improve, Beltran to be healthier than anyone thought and Reyes have the kind of year he is supposed to but we all doubted he would!
I agree that this team, as currently assembled, is far better than 73 wins, but there is a factor other than injuries that could cause the Mets to win only 73 games – if they sell at the trade deadline. Getting rid of Beltran, Reye, Izzy, K-Rod, or even a Chris Capuano, would severely dilute the talent level, especially if those trades acquired not quite ready major league players.
You’re right, of course. Selling would lead to much fewer wins. But if one camp wants the team to try their best this year, win 82 games, go home after October 3rd and start all over again in November, and the other camp wants the team to do well, but get future pieces for players leaving anyway, win 73 games but have a real good outlook for the future, put me in the 2nd group.
Either way, there’s no playoffs for this team. If all the high-priced payroll-hampering players can get traded for young, inexpensive prospects that the Mets can control for a few years, that’s worth any amount of wins in the end for this year because it gives the Mets a chance to contend for many years down the road.