28
2011
What Are The Odds Jose Reyes Is Still With Mets Next Opening Day?
An article by Hojo's Mojo
Jose Reyes is really lighting up the Mets blogosphere today with several posts debating the merits of giving him an extension that will keep him in Flushing. But what are the odds that that can really happen? Is there a number that would make both sides happy?
MetsBlog was asked if 5 years at $85-95 million would get it done, and Matt Cerrone responded by saying Reyes would be offered less than that, $75 million over five to be exact. I would have to think the Reyes camp would view this as an insult and move onto a team like the Red Sox, Phillies or even the Yankees. If that happens expect the odds at Vegas to heavily favor the team that wins the Jose Reyes sweepstakes this offseason.
I also believe this will have an adverse affect on some of the other players on the Mets, most notably David Wright who would be shocked to see a homegrown star like Jose Reyes low-balled like that.
Last night Jose Reyes showed some fight and it seemed to charge up the team. With the Mets trailing 2-1 in the 8th inning and nobody out, Jose Reyes lined a blistering gapper to left-center that had all the makings of a triple. As Reyes slid safely into third base with a head first slide easily beating the throw, he was called out by the umpire who thought Reyes came off the bag and was tagged. The ump got it wrong and Reyes went wild over the blown call.
Reyes needed to be restrained by Chip Hale who did an excellent job of keeping both himself and his shortstop from being ejected. Collins would also come out to argue the call and get in the umps face, but it was to no avail and setting the stage for pinch hitter Daniel Murphy who would tie the game with a resounding homer.
Afterward, Reyes explained what happened:
“I went a little bit crazy,” Reyes said after the game, looking quite proud of his actions and the team’s effort. “You know, my hand never came off the base. That was an important point in the game, down, 2-1. But we won the game, so that’s the best part. It was a huge win for us.”
It was by far the most satisfying win of the season for the Mets who came from behind to win a game that in the past would have probably resulted in a loss.
That’s one of the stark differences between these Mets and the Mets from the last few years; they seem to be snatching victory from the jaws of defeat more often than not.
So what are the odds that Jose Reyes is still a Met next Opening Day?
Gotta tip my hat to Adam Rubin of ESPN on his post last night in which he says Reyes has more value than OBP.
Sandy Alderson can take into account the sabermetric value of having a leadoff hitter with Jose Reyes’ career on-base percentage. He can question the sanity of a player in his late 20s who is dependent upon his legs getting a six- or seven-year deal if another team will go to that length once Reyes hits free agency.
Yet when the New York Mets’ general manager decides whether to Reyes walk as a free agent next offseason, or even to trade him before July 31, Alderson better take into account nights like Wednesday at Nationals Park too — because there also is a value in having the type of energy and passion that Reyes displays when he is wearing a uniform.
I couldn’t have said it any better.
Read the rest of his post here.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
39 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
Recent Comments
- Metsie: on Keep Daniel Murphy In The Leadoff Spot: And Connor? the RBI is AWARDED to...
- Metsie: on Keep Daniel Murphy In The Leadoff Spot: And your completely missing the point that...
- Metsie: on Keep Daniel Murphy In The Leadoff Spot: Let us all know when you have...
- Paul: on Sacking Terry Collins Now Would Be Unfair: In 2+ years, every Mets fan thinks...
- Metsie: on Keep Daniel Murphy In The Leadoff Spot: No what IS telling however is you...
MMO Mets Chat
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5363 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
Beautiful post – just pure baseball and on the money
Except there was one out and that makes a world of difference. Pops
Thank you, Adam Rubin. That was voice of reason-esque.
There’s no way we could replace him leading off or even at SS.
applause!
meaningless and based on nothing.
again, if you want to see energy and passion, i suggest being a fan of the special olympics. if you want to play winning baseball you look at stats.
these sorts of silly opinions are equivalent to saying “its about more than what is on the scoreboard.” it isnt. the score determined the winner.
Good luck trying to convince this crowd.
I hear you Martin, you hardboiled chap, you.
Do you agree that the Mets have never had a better leadoff man than Reyes? Henderson would have been our best, but we got him when he was almost blind and crazier than ever.
Shut your mouth and take that bullcrap elsewhere!
Reyes has been a clown for years. Don’t confuse his ‘passion’ with the real problem.
His lack of leadership on a team full of ‘near-leaders’.
And near is a stretch.
Please trade him, get value, and let’s finally rebuild this thing. 07 still haunts M_ts fans.
Don’t be foolish: the Mets have never had and probably never will have a leadoff man who will be the equal of Reyes. BTW, he’s a pretty amazing SS!
Reyes fired this team up last night and I laugh at how many people want to see Reyes gone to let Hu take over or Tejada from minor leagues. If Anderson doesnt re-sign him or trades him, he will be the worst gm in team history and run out of this town.
100% true. Reyes has great heart and passion and it shows. But it’s only worth mentioning because he’s a very good player, one of the best at what he does. All the heart and passion in the world means a truck load of nothing if the guy’s a bad player. It’s a great secondary trait to have, but most importantly is talent. Matt Franco had tremendous fire and passion. Where did it get him?
I’d always rather have a fiery, passionate All-Star than a glum, despondent All-Star, but I’d always rather have a glum, despondent All-Star than Matt Franco.
Reyes is a must resign for this franchise as long as it’s reasonable money that doesn’t take away our chances of adding elsewhere. The more Jose get on the more runs he’ll score, that’s the deal with OB but it’s is not close to everything when it comes to a SS who can fully defend his position AND hit. That’s not something too many teams have and certainly not in their prime.
18M over 5 years with maybe a club option would be worth every penny. Let’s see what we can get done here.
100% agree. I think maybe $90 mil is a little high, but if it doesn’t prove debilitating to the pursuit of other pieces, then it works for me. I think five years is right on the nose. If his agent even mentions Crawford’s name in negotiations without adding “not looking for” before it, I wish him well in his future endeavors.
How is $90 million too high? Isn’t that the market rate for a player like Reyes? Jason Bay makes $18 million a year why shouldnt Reyes get at least as much? David Wright will soon get $20+ million a year and he isn’t even a catalyst. Where do you get your numbers from and what are you basing it on because clearly you have no idea what the market will bare for Jose Reyes.
“Jason Bay makes $18 million a year”
And he shouldn’t be making close to it. Thanks again, Omar.
“David Wright will soon get $20+ million a year”
And I have no idea what the market will bear?
“Where do you get your numbers from and what are you basing it on”
My superior knowledge of the game and of the business of baseball.
Let me make clear the fact that I’m not saying Reyes WON’T get Crawford money, I’m saying he’s not worth it and it better not be from the Mets. If some other team wants that burden, let them have it (the contract would be the burden not Reyes).
You forget one thing here…
Crawford hasn’t been earning that money he got so far.
If Reyes’ agent even hints that Reyes should get Crawford money or that he is a player LIKE Crawford it would only work against him as the response will be look at how that worked out for the team that gave it to him.
My guess is Reyes will get near that and while we all complain about giving big contracts away, the truth of the big contract is that by the time the contract is halfway through your probably getting a discount compared to what you would pay a comparable replacement player (if one is even available) in a NEW contract.
The risk is really all in WHAT makes Jose Reyes a great player!
The fielding aside, he is really a player about his legs and will his legs still be a weapon when he is in his mid 30′s? Hard to say!
Ozzie Smith is an example of someone who actually kept his legs and even increased his batting average well into his 30′s. But he had a monumental work ethic that I simply don’t see in Reyes.
In the end the decision will be made on the state of the team around Reyes. If they show they can make Reyes worth keeping then he will get his money.
If they show they can’t win even WITH Reyes then there is no reason to keep him OR THEM and we will be rebuilding for the next 3 or 4 years.
So anyone who wants to see Reyes resigned had better do two things.
1 – Hope and pray the rest of the team does well and makes signing Reyes worthwhile
2 – Get the ticket window and start buying some tickets so they can give him the money he has probably earned because they aren’t taking loans from the MLB and can actually afford to pay him!
You make it sound like one bad contract scares all GMs away. Look at the deal Braun just got. Besides, its only april. Crawford can still turn it around and put up MVP numbers.
For some odd reason, Barry Zito’s deal didn’t scare a couple teams from getting into a bidding war for Cliff Lee. Or keep the Yankees for backing up the money truck for Sabathia.
Didn’t say it would scare Sandy away but if they try to attempt to say Reyes is the same player then they can say Oh Yeah well this is what we can expect from him and we will pay accordingly.
If this were arbitration then the Crawford deal would have some sway. reyes would have better numbers and then they would have to prove he isn’t worth more than Crawford.
But thats not going to be the dynamics when they negotiate.
And it really doesn’t matter what Sandy thinks Crawford is worth or if he is gun shy about a deal like that.
Reyes’ market will be based on what other teams are or are not gun shy in relation to Reyes’ numbers.
And if we are still only booking 20K fans per game at the stadium it really won’t matter HOW much Reyes is worth unless it’s cheap because they won’t be able to afford the contract with no one in the stands to pay for it!
Whatever. You have fun with all that superior knowledge pal.
David Wright is not worth $20 million per year.
05-08 David Wright was. this David Wright isn’t. I’ve never heard of a player getting WORSE going into their prime years. Mets destroyed their own player by building that park. It’s a shame.
If Wright doesn’t have a HOF career, I’ll be stunned. He’s worth lots.
As the column pointed out yesterday, there is no NL lineup right now–from 1-6 that looks more intimidating than the Mets, if you think of all these guys with their best #s.
If SP and BP prove good, I am confident the Metsies will win more games than we lose.
if jose reyes played with a quiet determination, a sort of understated classiness, never too excited, never too down, would that make him a worse player? not if his numbers were the same.
But it would make him a lot less fun to watch and cheer for.
And maybe the bravado and swagger and goofy dances are what makes him good.
is the goal to have fun players to watch, or players that win?
players play. teams win. all an indidual can really do is produce runs on offense and save runs on defense. Over the course of a season, Jose does both those things better than almost most other SS.
Can’t it be both? This is a form of entertainment after all.
We’re talking about grown men playing a game, not curing cancer.
it can be both, but one doesnt cause the other. reyes is either good or he isnt. and that is indicated by his numbers, not his passion. he could be passionate and awful. be he couldnt be terrible if his numbers are good.
No, they aren’t dependant and production is the #1 factor, but they certainly aren’t mutually exclusive, either.
right. but if winning is your goal, the issue is numbers and production, not energy and enthusiasm. reyes is no more valuable to the team because he gets angry at bad calls or smiles alot. he may be more valuable to the fans, but you have to consider that in the log run, the fans would just prefer wins, so this nebulous “energy” or “grit” is a non factopr relative to performance, as measure by stats, primarily OBP.
well, 5/$75 is not exactly a low ball offer.
really hard to say what he could get on the open market, but since that is all speculation right now, it does not directly impact an extension. that is, team Reyes does not have an actual offer on the table to beat, just what they hope/think they might get (assuming, of course, he does not have a catastrophic injury later in the year, a risk they take going to FA).
My WAG, they coupld probably get him signed for 6/108 (18mill/per). maybe do 13/19/19/19/19/19 to make it more “Picard friendly” in the ST! An offer like that would have to get serious negotiations to happen.
so start at 5/16 offered. They ask for 7/20. Split the difference, maybe finagle some protection on year 6 (health), and lock him up.
even with 6 years, that only puts him at about 33 at the end (or hitting 34 in year 6?). Not exactly ancient, and not too much of a risk that he won’t be able to walk. And way younger than Crawford will be during his deal.
From Jose’s perspective, a shorter deal has the benefit of letting him go for 1 more payday at 33/34 (like Beltran was supposed to do).
and Jose is NOT all about his legs. He has quite a bit of power for a lead off guy, and easily can mature in the next 5 years into a more middle of the order hitter (fewer steals, more pop).
and for the endless OBP debate, his career # is meaningless. That includes when he was rushed up at 19/20 (not fully ready), and a chunk of last season when he was doing ST on the fly in the majors. From 2006-2009 (well over 2000 PAs), he was dead consistant at .350-.355, and last year, after the first month, was still (oblique and all) in the mid-.340s.
actually pretty good (certainly good enough) for a lead off guy, especially for one that can put up slg% like he does. The dude is not slappy castillo or Juan Pierre.
Bottom line: like him or not Reyes is a star. He is incredibly important to the fortunes of any team he is playing on. He must be finacially compensated starting next year and the Mets are fools if they let him go elsewhere. How bout $100 million over five, with a team option for a sixth year?
$20 million a year? Not happening.
He’s worth it, and someone is going to pay him more than that, Mr. Genius.
It makes me sad when I hear the rumors going around on shows like Sportcenter, and etc. We all know what Reyes brings to this team, the energy, heart and the skill we brings to this team. So I 100% agree with Adam Rubin on what he says, and if Sandy does not take this into account by the trade deadline, or when it is the offseason, the Mets will definatley lose a lot of fans because of this. The Mets just need to look at Reyes at a whole, and us fans need to hope that Alderson doesn’t make stats his number reason on why to get rid of him. It would be a sad day if they get rid of him. Something to make you sick, to all Mets fans. I absolutely believe that they will give Reyes a reasonable deal, and I hope that for everything he says about how he loves the Mets, his team mates, the city, and the fans, he takes the deal they give him.
Production is the #1 reason to have a player. Even you added a caveat that Reyes should accept a “reasonable deal”. I love all that stuff about Reyes too, but if he wasn’t as good as he was, none of us would give a damn about his “energy” or “heart”.