3
2011
The Future Of Michael Alan Pelfrey
An article by XtreemIcon
What are the odds that 2011 is the last season Mike Pelfrey plays for the New York Mets? What are the odds that Pelfrey is an ex-Met by August 1st? Maybe a lot higher than you think. It might be time to seriously consider trading Mike Pelfrey.
Pelfrey is under team control for two more seasons after this one, hitting free agency for the first time after the 2013 season. And he WILL hit free agency, make no mistake. Mike Pelfrey employs Scott Boras as his agent, so there will be no long term extension. That’s Exhibit A on my evidence table.
Exhibit B is Mike Pelfrey himself. We know what he is. He’s a good #3 pitcher, with the potential to be a solid #2 if he can mature a little. Remember, he’s only 27 years old, so adding some maturity is certainly not out of the question. But Pelfrey doesn’t have the stuff to be an ace. He’s never posted a K/BB over two in his career and his career best WHIP is 1.36 (48 pitchers in baseball have averaged a better WHIP than that since 2008, Pelfrey’s first full season). Pelfrey’s tERA has been stable, hovering between 4.20 and 4.51 for his career, despite the drastic fluctuation in his ERA. He’s not as bad as he pitched in 2009 and he’s not as good as he pitched in 2008 or 2010. He’s a nice addition to any rotation, a guy that can pitch 200 innings, keep the team in the game and generally save a bullpen from overuse once every five days.
So why trade a guy like that?
To preface my thesis, I will say that there are some “ifs” involved and it’s way too soon to pull the trigger, but it’s not to soon to think about and plan ahead. Pelfrey is making $4 million this season, and if the offense stays healthy, Pelfrey might be able to notch 17 wins or so. Last season, that total would have put him tied for fourth in the league in that category. As it was, he finished in the top ten (tied for ninth, to be exact.) That might bump up his salary for 2012 to $6 million. And if he could do it again, Pelfrey could be looking at an $8-$10 million salary in 2013. And that’s just arbitration year salary. Remember exhibit A? Now Pelfrey could be going to into free agency with Exhibit A negotiating for him having at least doubled his salary in the last two seasons. You all know what that can lead to.
Is Pelfrey worth the kind of money Exhibit A will ask for? Probably not. Is anyone ever worth the kind of money Exhibit A asks for?
Exhibits C, D and E are Jenrry Mejia, Dillon Gee and Johan Santana. Gee would probably have been more than able to hold his own as a 5th starter this season, and Mejia has showed enough for most people to think just one more year of seasoning will have him major league-ready.. If Johan can come back at some point this season and throw well late in the year and go into the off season healthy for a change, those three pitchers would be in line to replace the likely departing Chris Young, Chris Capuano and………Mike Pelfrey?
The Mets would have to be offered quite a package to part with a #2.5 starter with two full years of team control left, but let’s be honest. Johan’s a far better pitcher than Pelfrey, and Mejia has just a ton of upside and potential. I don’t think many people would argue that Jon Niese also projects better than what Pelfrey is, and R.A. Dickey’s under contract for 2012 as well.
And let’s not dismiss Exhibit F, one Mark Cohoon. Mark took some solid steps last season in thirteen starts each for Savannah and Binghamton. He absolutely dominated A ball and, after a period of adjustment in AA, finished the season with a flourish. Mark’s on the Binghamton roster to start the 2011 season and, if he picks up where he left off last season, could be starting in AAA Buffalo by June. He could be ready for a shot at the rotation as early as next season if he’s not derailed.
Again, that’s far too many “ifs” to pull the trigger now. That would be irresponsible. But it’s not at all a long shot that Gee and Mejia could get some major league starts this season with what we know about Young and Capuano and their injury history. What if they impress? And what if Johan has a real solid September and is 100% healthy in November for the first time in his Mets career? What if Cohoon makes his final ten starts in Buffalo this season and impresses there, too? Would the Mets field offers this coming off season? Maybe they should. The further away from free agency Pelfrey is, the better package the Mets would receive in return. They’d get more back in December of 2011 than they would in December of 2012. And if all those “ifs” actually work out, it might actually be the smart thing to do.
About the Author: Jesse Elgarten
21 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
Recent Comments
- Russell's Mets: on Murphy Batting Leadoff, But For How Long?: Collins said "we’ve got to get guys...
- Scott Rice's Arm: on Is Collins The Blame For Team’s Poor Performance, Or Is He Just The Patsy?: Patsy? He thinks I'm an every day...
- Charley: on Mets GM Tells Ike Davis He Has Until End Of Month To Turn Slump Around: And what are yours exactly?
- TexasGusCC: on Murphy Batting Leadoff, But For How Long?: Christine, he gave Valdespin a chance on...
- Charley: on Mets GM Tells Ike Davis He Has Until End Of Month To Turn Slump Around: Of course. Leave it to someone to...
MMO Mets Chat
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5358 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
When Pelfrey was drafted the Director of Scouting, Russ Bove, said Pelfrey’s main attribute was the ability to rack up K’s based only upon his fastball.
Pelfery was brought up to the Majors in his first professional season even though his walks in AA were high and his K’s in AAA were low.
He lost some velocity, never developed a change/curveball/split that would at the same time, give him an out pitch other than his FB AND give him a pitch with a different velocity.
He was rushed and never developed. He never moves anyone back, throws every pitch with the same velocity and now with Thole calling the game keeps going back to the pitch that worked the last pitch or AB.
He’s durable, has good command but never learned how to pitch to Major Leaguers. He got by on his FB in college and A+ but after that the walks went up, K’s came down and he settled into being a contact GB pitcher and one who hitters are very very comfortable in the batters box against.
Good #3, an option as a #2 with similar guys at 3, 4 and 5. It’s the composition of any rotation that he is in that determines if it’s good enough. Not him.
As usual the Mets traded potentially great for right now.
I tell you on reason why Pelfrey could be gone..Matt Harvey. You add him to Meija, and Niese and you have a pretty good front three. So looking forward your big three for 2012 will be those gentlemen. Not too shabby.
Turn him loose. Someone else will turn him into an ace, if they have the time. obviously we cannot.
Well, Mike Pelfrey is soft based on what we have seen last year and yesterday! He doesn’t have the intestinal fortitude for stepping his game up when needed. It’s time for getting whatever we can for him at the trade deadline and moving on towards talent that helps the Mets!
i will wait a little while longer before I make this judgement, but I am leaning this way. Pelfrey never seems to come up real big in the big spots. It is still a little too early to be certain and let’s face it there haven’t been a lot of really big spots in the last two years, so I am willing to wait.
And if he does show some toughness, then I think it depends on how the team is performing the next two years. Even if Santana can come back which is a BIG if, Pelfrey would be one of the better four starters in the league.
But if the team falters or he doesn’t step up and show some big game pitching then I would look to move him. Unless he makes huge strides, I don’t see signing a number four for what Boras is going to ask for. Especially since he will be looking for a 5 or 6 years at 29. I don’t want any contracts that end with a pitcher at 34 or 35.
Is this the same guy who pitched every game after end of April last year with an injury that required a shot to go out on that mound? This same soft guy?
I am not making a judgement on mental toughness one way another at this point. But playing through injury is not the same as pitching well in the big game.
Pelfrey’s problem has nothing to do with lack of intestinal fortitude but everything to do with the lack of swing-and-miss stuff. 5K and 3BB per 9 innings isn’t exactly ace material.
I would definitely move him, even by the trade deadline. Package him with Beltran or Reyes in a deal for a big pitcher that could slide into the ace slot. Pelfrey is not now nor will he ever be an ace. In fact, at best he’s a three and never been more than that. We have to stop overrating him because he was a number one pick. Jon Niese is better than him already. He’s soft, his body language is terrible and he’s not an intelligent pitcher. Move him!
Your not going to get a “ace” for any of these three. But you could get a couple of prospects or possibly a young number 2.
Thank you!!!
I agree with Mr. X in that Sandy should stongly consider trading Mike this upcoming offseason if the price is right. IMO, Pelfrey is never going to turn the corner as a true top 2 SP force because of his lack of a repertoire, his poor SO/BB ratio and his too high BAA. AS Mr. X said, Pelfrey is simply not going to be worth a lucrative longer term contract when he becomes a FA down the road under Boras who is a master at selling his clients. Hopefully, this season a clearer picture Of Familia, Harvey, Mejia and even Goeddel manifests itself. Even if Sandy has to bring in a 1 year stop gap measure SP next season to afford the aforementioned 4 SP prospects more time to develop.
2012 Mets could have a strange look. Possibly no Reyes, Beltran, Pelfrey, and/or KRod. New look Mets…but losing all those guys, will they be better or worse? Don’t forget after 2012…David Wright has a $1 million dollar buyout and after 2013 Johan has a $5.5 million dollar buyout. Going to be hard to afford to keep these players if and when attendance drops and Citifield looks like a ghost town. I hope the Wilpons and Alderson’s crew has a plan in place.
that is a long time in the future (projecting into 2013/2014). Players come and go all the time. Just because a few of the guys you mentioned will be gone, doesn’t mean that all the fans will abandon ship. it really depends on who they have in to replace them.
but mostly, are they winning!
my guess, Wright has his option exercised, and Santana is bought out (purely based on performance at the time).
reyes is the wildcard, but by 2013, people would have gotten over that! But, still possible he is still here.
and by then, maybe neise is a stud, Davis is a star, Havens is the next utley, etc. You never know.
I meant Citifield would be a ghost town due to the team’s lack of success after the possible loss of 5 all-stars. I didn’t mean fans wouldn’t show up based on the players themselves. I cheer for the name on the front of the jersey, not the name on the back…hopefully, all Mets fans feel that way.
who knows though. ghost town though might be overstating it. Even if they were a .500 team in the midst of retooling, they will still draw 2mill+.
besides, who is to say they won’t be winning even more? Stars leave, but by then, Davis and havens could be what howard and Utley were a few years back for the Phils. And maybe Neise is a top of the rotation stud.
It’s possible but not really worth thinking about until we see what he does this season.
While 27 seems young it is right around this point in age where the injuries start popping up.
I heard he even claimed he was hurt all last year!
It really is just a matter of time.
Trade is better than letting him walk in FA but your probably not going to get anything more than Kids for him.
Why is it that every time someone has a bad game we have to get rid of him. All our pitchers don’t have to be #1 pitchers. There aren’t too many real #1 pitchers. Also, stop trying to trade Reyes. Yes he is going to be a free agent, so what. We don’t have to trade him. He can re-sign.
Reyes is my favorite Met…would love for him to re-sign…but the odds of the Mets dropping Crawford money on him are slim…as sad as it will be to trade him, would rather got something in return than to have him just walk away and get nothing.
I’m cool with trading Pelfrey. I was never a big fan of his anyhow. I think, right now, assuming Capuano and Young are healthy, Pelfrey is the fifth best starter in the rotation.
I see us trading Pelfrey, Reyes (for the reasons stated above), and Beltran (if healthy and playing well). Maybe even FMart gets thrown in for the right deal. And, yet, Alderson has said that the Mets have the money to go out and get a good player if we’re “in it” at the trade deadline. So, who knows?
I agree, Boras will take him to free agency as soon as he can.