5
2011
SI.com: Blow Mets Up And Start All Over
An article by Hojo's Mojo
As I was reading through the team by team previews on SI.com, I came to the Mets preview where Sports Illustrated graded the Mets offseason a “C”. Not a big deal and pretty much the same assessment we’ve seen all over the web.
The three key questions for the Mets in 2011, which you can read about here, are:
1. Can they withstand the loss of Johan Santana?
2. Is Jason Bay back?
3. Will Jose Reyes be traded?
They picked an X-Factor for each team, and I agree with their choice of Carlos Beltran for the Mets:
One way or another, this is Beltran’s last season in New York. His controversial, injury-filled and at times successful tenure — he did make four All-Star teams with the Mets — will end when his seven-year, $119 million contract does after the season. But despite his knee problems, scouts from other teams have continued tracking Beltran’s progress, feeling that if he’s healthy enough to play for a rebuilding club like the Mets, he might be healthy enough to help a contender down the stretch. The Mets would undoubtedly love to trade him, both to save the money they still owe him and to try to replenish a farm system that is in dire need of a talent injection.
What I really found very curious was their scout’s take on the state of the Mets. Here is what he said:
“Johan Santana may be more of a No. 3 starter now and they’re loaded down with them. Playing in that division, where your No. 1 and No. 2 are basically a three and a four, God help them. Their system is really thin and there’s not a lot there. I don’t see an impact player coming from within and they have to change the climate. If they’re smart, they’ll blow the club up and start over.”
Blow the club up and start over? Really?
I’m no scout, but when your team is centered around a young nucleus featuring players like David Wright, Angel Pagan, Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell and Josh Thole, I just can’t see why anyone would believe we should blow that up and start from scratch.
Of course the Nationals and Marlins received high grades and they apparently are oozing with potential and high caliber prospects. But the Mets got no credit for adding three quality players from their minor league system to their 25 man roster in Niese, Thole and Davis.
A little objectivity please….
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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Every thing I read and hear is how bad the Mets farm system is. I think part of the problem is they OVER hype the top ones like Fertnando Martinez , Alex Escobar and so on that they do not get credit for there farm system as a whole. Isn’t the idea to produce major leaguers,
Josh Thole, Ike Davis , Jose Reyes, David Wright, Angel Pagan (drafted traded and traded back) Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy, Mike Pelfrey, Jon Neise, Bobby Parnell. How many more do they need, if this was the Phillies we would be hearing how great there farm system is .
Vinnie, let’s be truly realistic, if THIS WAS the Phillies there would be a Rollins,an Utley & a Howard with a couple of MVP trophies in their closets. Another thing to consider is how few highly touted, full of expectation level draft picks reside somewhere on our farm, given the writers are as lazy as they can get away with. While we’ve certainly done well to increase our homegrown %,high performing 7th rounders are less respected than overachieving first rounders, it certainly isn’t garnering the respect u desire because they are more or less not among the upper echelon of their peer group @ their position(excl Davis) How can u expect Thole’s little campfire light to be apparent when drowned out by Posey’s forest fire of ilumination, Pagan @ 30 is a non-condideration at this point, a local feel good story, more of “it’s about time” on the national scene.
The rest, Duda,Murphy,Pelfrey,Niese compared against their peers Hamels,Lincicum,Prado,Strassberg, have accomplished what outstanding sccomplishment that is noteworthy.
Myself, I’m more perplexed at why no one has established an over/under regarding the number of games to be played by Beltran & Chipper being as Chipper has avg only 122g/season since ’06. yet while despite this, Chipper is too often referred to as a dangerous contributor to the Atl lineup worthy of consideration, the same so called experts are subtractibng value points for Beltran’s suspect game total.
As far as succeeding without Santana? How badly do we need an 11-9 #1 SP? one, who when backed by the most potent lineup he’ll likely ever experience in his career, Reyes,Beltran,Delgado for a full season in ’08 only managed a mere 16Ws in the weaker NL he was supposed to dominate. Santana,even before this shoulder surgery proved incapable of out pitching his counterparts Johnson,Carpenter,Smoltz,Halladay incapable of out zeroing them on a regular basis as the delta between his fastball & change shrunk to neglibility. Nearly EVERY divisional LH slugger salivated in the box against him, McCann, Utley, Howard, Ibanez as his change was totally ineffective with a #1 heater incapable of overwhelming their anticipation.
We’ll most assuredly have our difficulties dealing with those Aces; but not only because our’s is shelved & our fillin is less than advertised.
It’s just lazy journalism. No wonder people flock to blogs, b/c even though they’re written by fans, they can provide a more realistic and objective view. It seems like the writers just want to cater to the OMG THE SKY IS FALLING crowd and not actually say what the positives are for the Mets.
Spot on Coop. The “in style” thing these days is to bash and beat up on the Mets. But what I find comical, is the guys (or gals), beating up on the team could tell David Wright from Orville Wright, or Ike Davis from Sammy Davis.
Whether or not you agree with a blog writer, you know they follow the team an idea of what they’re talking about.
And no one seems to give Jon Niese his due. This guy has been nothing short of awesome in his first year and really got his stuff together in his first start of the year after looking a bit unhinged in the first. I know it’s early, but please. Enough with the negative! It’s bad enough on Twitter!
Well in an attempt to play devils advocate I will note the following:
“I’m no scout, but when your team is centered around a young nucleus featuring players like David Wright, Angel Pagan, Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell and Josh Thole, I just can’t see why anyone would believe we should blow that up and start from scratch.”
saying this team is Young is really stretching it. They are all in the 25-29 age range which is younger but not exactly young. Especially since guys like Reyes are up for renewal and that contract will likely cover him well into his 30′s where Legs (which is Reyes’ strength) tend to start deteriorating. In fact they have been a constant thorn in his side, the older he gets the more they will have issues.
Pagan had a great year but he needs to repeat it before anyone will believe him. I believe he can but again it’s a belief on my part not a fact.
As for impact minor leaguers well F-Mart has lost the world because they forget his is only 22. But considering how long he has been with us he should have had plenty enough coaching to be able to make this team but has not. Some blame injuries but lets face facts here, when he WAS healthy and brought up he didn’t do a damn thing to show he belongs. We can’t keep hoping a light is going to go on or that he will all of a sudden become a healthy stable prospect until he shows something.
I like Duda, Made a great catch this weekend but as great as it looked a guy like Pagan or Beltran with good knees would not have had to dive for that ball they would have gotten under it well before the ball dropped. Duda is slow footed and while he has some pop in his bat he is not the kind of guy who is going to comprise a core player you can build around. Great for depth and I allow the fact he could improve and change my current opinion of him.
Murphy is not going to be anything but a pinch hitter and depth. He might become a HOFer if he was playing in the AL where he could be a DH but his glove is just not good enough to put in the field. The Blown save ground ball went right by him and he was close enough to get it. Maybe he would be a good 3B but with Wright there his bat is good but not AS GOOD as Wrights to warrant playing him there other than depth and rest for wright.
Murphy’s best destiny for helping this team is to trade him IMO. Either to the AL for some pitching (we would have to package someone with him) or to a team who needs a 3B so he could play his natural position.
You can’t blow them up. Then you’d be left with nothing. They don’t have enough resources to start from scratch.
Omar should get credit for getting us some possible solutions, lots of depth and a few truly talented prospects especially since he was starting essentially from scratch. He also subtracted what little he had at the beginning for Church/Schneider and his early work on Santana but the problem is the difference in talent level as well as the developmental part of it.
Basically speaking the Braves have first round talent at every position, 5 on the mound within the next 2 years and 3 spots in the bullpen already.
We have a lot of 7th – 13th round talent. Compare Venters or Kimbrell to Parnell, Thole to McCann. Heyward to Duda. That’s the difference. One place where we have a slight edge is first base Ike first round – Freeman 2nd round but overall the difference in talent is noticeable and moving rapidly in the wrong direction. Even where we can hold our own with the Braves Pelfrey-Jurjens, Niese-Hanson after that the gap widens.
Mejia/Teheran, Harvey/Delgado, Gee/Vizcaino, Matz/Beachy, Cohoon/Minor, Collins/Urbina, Perez/Rodriguez. all of these are huge matchup wins for Atlanta from either a talent or a development stand point or both. They are also closer to the Majors so they are a little less likely to get hurt before getting up here (although Vizcaino may have an elbow)
Stop for just a second and tell me who do you think will develop their young pitchers better, the Braves or the Mets?
The Braves also have a very well run organization. They get lots of talent in the major leagues (not just minors) from their IFA’s and they use many of their IFA’s as trades to get top shelf talent from other teams a couple years before free agency and they develop them properly.
Our most talented young players are Wright, Reyes, Davis, Niese, Pagan Tejada, Mejia, Familla, Flores and possibly Parnell, the Braves most talented are Hanson, Heyward, Freeman, Prado, Venters, Kimbrell, McCann, Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino. I hate to say it but that is a huge talent difference that favors the Braves. Again we can hold our own with them matchup wise for a few spots but after that…..They also have one guy soon to be free agent while the rest are making the minimum, we have three soon to be free agents meaning it is more likely that gap will widen simply for that reason alone.
Look at the difference in the way the teams are run. We both need a 2B, the Braves bring up Martin Prado, we sign Luis Castillo. We need both need a LFer the Braves trade for Uggla and move Prado, we sign Bay to an 80 M dollar deal. Uggla (30) 5/60 or Bay (32) 5/80 with Prado/Emaus rounding out the equation? Better talent, less money Atlanta.
One of the reasons baseball is a such a great game is because anyone can win. It all comes down to what happens on the field and many times the less talented team wins over the more talented one. 1960 Pirates, ’73 Mets over the Reds and millions of other examples but in the regular season marathon talent and depth trump everything else almost to the point where nothing else matters. Just talent and depth. The Braves have both well above us and what talent advantages we have are about to become either very expensive or out the door. Many of their talent advantages are making league minimum or will be as soon as they get up here.
We’ve gotten a bit of possible first round talent from Niese (7th round), Parnell (9th round) that helps lower that talent chasm. Good job Omar. and getting a possible 5th starter who I think will be good in Gee (21st round) is absolutely huge for us but most of the true talent level of our prospects is 7th-13th round. Duda, Evans, Murphy, Thole, Gee, and the IFA’s either one dimensional, stagnatted or improperly developed.
It’s great that we are getting something out of the IFA market and later round draft picks but in tangling with the Braves over the next decade, no way it’s gonna be good enough. Not even close. The talent disparity is just too huge to overcome in a 162 game season.
good thing you don’t go to the playoffs based on where your MiL guys are ranked. And plenty of 1st rounders miss, and 5th rounders become excellent players.
75% of first rounders do make it compared to about 25% of 5th rounders and those that do make it from the first round are the players that make up a much larger percentage of All Star roster spots, win Cy Youngs and MVP’s.
Maybe 75% MAKE it to the majors, but how many are GOOD major league players? I’m sure when your just counting guys who “make it” your counting a lot guys like Kunz, who only play like one game in the majors.
Technically Kunz was a supplemental round pick but yes, there are plenty of guys like him that play a few games or don’t even get up here at all. Others are on the bench, fill a spot for a couple of years so you don’t have to sign a Luis Castillo, others get traded in packages for front line aces, some become starters, some All Stars, some Cy Youngs or MVP’s.
Not to say an MVP couldn’t come from another round, after all Pujols did (13th) but most of MLB’s biggest stars come from either the first two rounds or amatuer international free agency.
Lincecum, Cain Bumgarner, and Posey came from the first round. I’d rather draft there.
T, this comment is rather obvious, DUH!;
“Lincecum, Cain Bumgarner, and Posey came from the first round. I’d rather draft there.”
HOWEVER, NEARLY EVERY PERSON ON THE PLANET WOULD LIKELY AGREE THE FIRST ROUND, IS THE ABSOLUTE BEST PLACE TO PICK FROM; HOWEVER, IF YOU’RE PROHIBITED FROM OFFERING WHAT THE LIKELY CHOICES WOULD WANT, & THEY OPT TO PASS ON U, EXACTLY WHAT HAVE U ACTUALLY ACCOMPLISHED? BESIDES PASSING ON A POSSIBLE F/A THAT ACTUALLY MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED SOMETHING INSTEAD OF A TOP AMATEUR REJECTING U & NEVER CONTIOBUTING ANYTHING, EVER! SURELY IF U ACTUALLY HAD THE ABILITY/FLEXIBILITY TO ENTER INTO NEGOTIATIONS IN A MEANINGFUL WAY THAN GAMBLING ON THE YOUTHFUL DEVELOPMENT IS A MORE SOUND FUTURE CONSIDERATION, AS WELL AS BEING MUCH LESS EXPENSIVE OVERALL. AND WHILE U HARP ON CASTILLO & OTHER’S NONEFFECTUAL CONTRIBUTIONS ISN’T NONEFFECTUAL ACTUALLY MORE THAN ZERO CONTIBUTIONS?(FORGET LUIS $$$ VALUE; BUT SUPPOSE HE’D BEEN SIGNED FOR 3Y/12M GUARANTEED INSTEAD OF 4/24? COMPARED TO UNSIGNED PICKS?
T, WHILE U REGULARLY & USELESSLY RAIL AGAINST HOW OMAR REGULARLY SURRENDERED PICK POSITIONS, I FIND IT ABSOLUTELY INCREDULOUS THAT U CALIBRATE SOME VALUE TO THESE LOST CHOICES OF MOST LIKELY UNSIGNABLE AMATEURS.
I CAN TOTALLY UNDERSTAND WHY OMAR TENDED TO REASSIGN HIS BEST SCOUTS AWAY FROM THE BRYCE HARPER & STEVEN STRAUSBERG FOLLOWING CROWDS TO THE NONDESCRPT HINTERLANDS HOUSING THE MOST LIKELY LATE ROUND(6-10) SELECTIONS. U KNOW THOSE GRASSLANDS WHERE TOILED THE MURPHYS,EVANSES,NIESES,PARNELLS,THOLES THOUGH THAT LEVEL SELECTION POPULATING YOUR SYSTEM DOES NOT GARNER U RESPECT FROM FARM EVALUATORS DUE TO LOW CEILINGED PROJECTIONS FROM THAT ILK SELEXTION.
T, U KNOW I DISAGREE WITH THE SLOTTING PRACTICE ADHEREANCE AS VEHEMENTLY AS ANYONE; BUT THAT DOES NOT PRECLUDE MY GRUDGING ACCEPTANCE OF IT AS A FACTUAL IMPEDIMENT TO BE DEALT AROUND/ACCOMODATED. AS SUCH, & ONLY AS SUCH, DO I STRIVE TO UNDERSTAND THE OMAR TENDANNCY TO DEVALUE THE PICK Vs THE F/A RATHER THAN CONDEMN IT OUT OF HAND!
’62, I want the best talent at least some of the time, not never. I mean would it be too much to ask that once a decade we could develop one good player for each position, and bring up one fully developed arm for the pen or rotation every year?
That’s on average two well developed prospects every year from the draft, trades for other teams minor leaguers, or international free agency.
I’m not talking about each guy being an all star, Obviously I’d like some to be, but others could be along the lines of a Mark Lemke who could adequately hold down a position like 2B for a decade for instance until you find an Edgardo Alfonzo to take over for him. Lemke was a 27th round pick, Marcus Giles played 2B for the Braves for a long time, went to an All Star game and won MVP votes a couple of times. He was drafted in the 53rd round.
It’s not only an overslot issue ’62. It’s a philosophy issue. The resources are not being put into the scouting and development dept even where slotting is not an issue.
The Braves, despite drafting behind most teams over the last two decades, are getting better early round, mid round and late round talent. Their also getting the best Caribbean talent. Those are not all slotting related problems, their philosophical and scouting one’s.
I think blowing up the team is a little dramatic, but changes must be made to the teams philosophy regarding it’s farm system.
The Mets refusal to pay overslot in the past has KILLED us, big time. It is not like we are paying NFL rookie contracts here people, we are talking a few hundred thousand to a couple of million more. It’s not like the Mets wouldn’t fork up money for the #1 pick in the draft, it is they are too cheap to pony up a little extra for the 12th or 15th pick in the draft.
The Mets need to change their draft philosophy from which player can we draft and sign at slot price to Draft The Best Player available regardless of their price (obviously within reason).
Having a shoddy farm system is a double whammy in that it limits what trades the Mets can perform, plus it leaves the Mets with crap players to develop in house. This thinking must end and we must always be thinking about the future of this club.
Omar decided to dump all of the Mets money into Free agents and contract extensions, thats all well and good because on paper it put us in a position to win now and win for a couple of years. Obviously that did not pan out the way we all visioned, but the side nobody saw at the time was that it forced us to not spend on the draft and ultimately left us with no championships and no future talent either.
I don’t fault Omar, personally I felt he was brought in to win now and he did everything in his power to try and position this club for just that. I think ownership was tired of the poor attendance and fan outcry that they put all their marbles into 2006-2010. It didn’t pan out, and the fact that we have nothing for 2011-2015 doesn’t help alleviate the pain of the 2006-2010 misery.
The past is the past and nothing can change what has been done, but the Mets can right the ship by changing their philosophy and invest more into the draft and young talent and not be tempted by the high priced Free-agents dangling above our heads.
I know I am being a hypocrate since I have been clammering about the Mets signing Albert in teh offseason, which would be the direct opposite to everything I just wrote, but come on, it’s Albert Pujols.
Anyways, hopefully Alderson will change the Mets organization thinking and not be bullied by the Wilpon’s and hopefully we will see the beginnings of a New Mets Thinking with this year’s draft.
That philosophy also hurts us in another way Scotty. When the players we signed (and gave away draft choices) leave, that’s it. We get nothing for them. Some of them we can’t even give away at any price. Alou, Pedro, Delgado, Probably Beltran, Castillo, Perez, El-Duque all either cost us a draft choice or could have brought one back, but when they left we got zippo. Wagner left behind a DH. Great. And this has been going on for TWO DECADES. This is why we haven’t had a RFer since Strawberry, had EIGHT free agent LFers, Coleman, Henderson, Shinjo, McReynolds, Cedeno, Floyd, Alou, Bay all the while paying a fortune and getting less than average and then nothing again after they leave.
More of the anti Mets journalism that is prevalent in the media.
I think that Collins of what we have seen so far might be part of the new philosophy in NY Mets land, notice how many walks Mets drew this weekend?
They still need more wk on the hitting with RISP but they are working on things that were a problem in the past.
How do you blow up a young teen? Trade 23 year olds for 15 year olds and start them in the majors?
LOL. Young team*. Had youth on my mind.
As Mets fans, it is hard to hear all the criticism of the team we love, and sure the team has brought up some prospects recently (Davis, Thole, Parnell, Niese) and that is great. I think the problem outsiders and analysts have with the Mets farm system is, even though they have a few good looking prospects, they are all centered around the same positions. Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Vaughn, Puello, Ceciliani, F-Mart (if you still remember him) are all outfielders. Mejia, Harvey, Gee, Cohoon, Familia, Urbina are all pitchers. The Mets have very little talent elsewhere. Nobody, besides Mets people, think Tejada is a top flight prospect, and Flores, as good of a hitter as he is, he has Daniel Murphy syndrome, which means he has no position. Also, Havens is yet to play a full season in the minors so no one knows if he is a top prospect or not. The Mets have some fine OF and pitching prospects, but they have very little at every other position, and I believe that is why people are so down on the farm system.
The problem with the Mets’ minor league system is a matter of comparison to other teams. I always hear Met fans saying things like, “Our minors aren’t bad! We have {insert highest ranked Mets minor leaguer here}, and he’s projected to be good!”
That’s like saying, “Why does everyone say the Pirates are bad? They have Andrew McCutchen, he’s a good player! What about him?”
So yes, the Mets have some guys in their minors that I’m sure will be decent MLB players in the future. The problem is that most other teams have more such players than we do, and more players with higher ceilings than we do.
There are MANY objective rankings of minor league systems out on the market, done by people who have no bias for or against the Mets, and all these rankings list the Mets as having a mediocre farm system compared to other teams.
Sandy Alderson himself said the same thing. He said our farm system is mediocre, and he plans to invest in it to make it better. So I’m confident in a few years, we’ll have a good farm system. But as of right now, no, sorry.
Comparing Minor league systems also has a lot to do with Timing.
If Ike, Thole, Niese and Pagan were in the Minors, people might say we have one of the strongest Minor league systems of any MLB team.
But they got promoted! They MADE the team. They are no longer minors and the guys who are behind them may not have had the chance to show how good they really are yet.
If you want to talk about who has the most IMPACT players in the Minors well none of them are impact players yet. Not until they make a team and make an IMPACT!
There are guys with potential either realized or raw that still have yet to prove they belong in the Majors.
The truth is your percentage of TRUE impact players is no lesser or greater than any other team.
a HIGHLY TOUTED minor leaguer is no more than someone you think COULD be good but isn’t yet.
FMart was once highly touted but has failed at the major league level.
Hessman was a HR leader in the Minors was he a highly touted player? Hell no!
It’s all about hope and guesses and means squat!
And how good your minors is should be judged by how many players it actually develops into Major league players not based on how many guys came up and blew the lights out of the place.
Look at Strausborg. PHENOM, NEXT GOODEN, Blah Blah Blah…Blew his arm out less than 10 games into being promoted!
It’s not a total crap shoot but it is all a product of good timing even more than good drafting!
And you will always see as many great players who were given up by one franchise only to see them become stars with another.
You make the best educated guesses you can in the drafting an aquisition of youth and the rest is all a product of good coaching and grooming.
You can pick dead last in the draft and come up with as many impact players as someone who picks first but can’t harness all the skills that made him a top overall pick in the first place!
In our case it is obvious that we are weak in the strength and conditioning area on an organizational wide way. FMart has the tools, can’t stay healthy, Havens has the same issue or he would be our 2B right now. Even Murphy has sufferred and lost his position due to it.
If Mejia comes up and becomes an Ace then all this talk about a minor leagues who produced quite a few ML players for us will be all Blooey!
Ike, Niese, Thole, and Pagan were never really considered top shelf prospects in the minors. Certainly not enough to garner a system a high ranking.
Ike was considered to be a bit of a potential bust after his 2008 short season in Brooklyn. 2009 he had a breakout year, with a couple of cautions, but by May 2010 he was already up here. One poor year and one good one by a #1 draft pick isn’t going to move your system up or down on it’s own.
Thole was a failed first basemen who put the gear back on, had a good approach and worked his ass off to catch up including winter ball in Caracas. The only reason he was brought up here so quickly was because Santos was all we had. A player of Thole’s skill set won’t move the system ranking unless you had the same type of player at every position and then only for depth.
Pagan was either hurt or suffering from a serious infection during his minor league years. He hardly even played and when he did it was in the Cubs system.
Niese was ranked 77th in the top 100 in 2007 and 7th in 2008. This moves the meter, plus he was actually in the system for 4 years. That’s the only way to “help” the system’s ranking.
nO they weren’t yet guys who were valued much higher than them and given the PROSPECT label have never or did nothing once they got to the MLB.
Just goes to show that the LABEL is a LABEL not a VALUE!
It’s about potential. Those they think are destined for great things get the label even when they don’t forfill that attributed destiny yet guys who don’t have much expected of them do well in the MLB!
It’s like looking at an apple pie and saying boy that could be the best tasting apple pie I ever saw. Then you taste it and is tastes like crap.
It was a prospect pie.
And then there are the pies that you say oh it looks ok then eat it and go Wow that was good!
The PROSPECT label is an expectation not a real trait!
A guy who makes it to the MLB and sticks is a better player than a HIGHLY TOUTED prospect who never gets there!
And since a prospect hasn’t got there when he gets the label it is useless to even think one guy is a prospect and another is not.
They are ALL prospects!
Some live up to expectations, Some exceed their expectations and no matter what your value was as a Minor leaguer it is all moot until you make the team!
Well Metsie it’s a “projectable value” When looking at Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Brian Kimbrell, Venters, Prado, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Freeman, Beachy, Minor ect, there is a certain feeling that ALL of these guys are future Major Leaguers and that quite a few are All Star caliber players, some even have MVP or Cy Young capability.
That Projectable value is in comparison to where they are in relation to their peers, both in the same league or their age group in another.
Heyward was dominating AAA as a 19 year old with no holes in his game. Glove, arm, legs, plate discipline, power, OB, BA. Had it all.
Freeman dominated as a 20 year old in AAA without the power, at an easier position. That’s why Heyward would get an A+, Freeman an A-.
Ike as a 22 year old, struggling in short season ball in Brooklyn would have been somewhat lower.
Ultimately it only matters what they do up here but for the purposes of ranking/comparing farm systems those returns are not yet in while their still in the minors.
It’s FEELING…not a VALUE!
Not and intrinsic skill or anything BUT a FEELING.
If a guy tears it up in A ball then he is a prospect in AA. And if he fails in AA he is no longer a prospect.
Problem is some guys don’t change and just do what they always did, It may not be what the FEEL a prospect will do but at least he actually does it!
Most of the ML is made up of guys who were NOT prospects.
And more than HALF the prospects you hear about never make it to the bigs or if they do don’t last very long.
So the fact that no one thinks we have PROSPECTS has a lot to do with the fact half the guy who WOULD BE are now on the team already.
They are not Prospects anymore but they ARE baseball players which isn’t a feeling it’s a fact!
So in your opinion all prospects in every farm system are exactly the same? None has any value because there not in the Majors yet?
I have no idea who your listening to about prospects but I would change sources if I were you. Well more than half, in fact 90% of the prospects in farm systems that I read about, hear about and talk about DO become Major Leaguers, many of them outstanding one’s.
If you have no interest or belief in developing your own players that’s cool with me, I don’t feel we have to share the same opinion on that or any other topic but If you can’t see the correlation between a team drafting and developing prospects like Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Josh Venters, Brian Kimbrell, Brian Beachy and Tommy Hanson and how that impacts their future win totals then I just don’t know how to respond to that.
I really hope your not suggesting that we are the only team to have recently brought prospects up to the Majors cause I just gave you six names the Braves have brought up in the last year and whether you like it or not they were all highly rated and all but one of them has experienced some success at the Major League level and the one that hasn’t yet only has 3 games up here.
Those 6 were added to others drafted, signed and developed by the Braves farm system who have experienced quite a bit of success as well including Jurjens, Prado, McCann and Chipper. But I guess it was valueless having them in the farm system too.
I have plenty of interest in developing my own players.
What I don’t have an interest in is the PROSPECT label that is given to ANY player a team picks until they decide not to try and tout him anymore so that maybe people will forget they picked them in the first place!
I also don’t have an interest in what some guy who isn’t a GM or a ML scout ranks my PROSPECTus based on his belief.
Tell me what does it take to get the prospect label. Tell me what it takes other than the potential to make the team!
Then tell me why a guy who makes thr major leagues NOT a prospect when compared?
And don’t use hindsight in your definition.
Don’t say if the guy wins a cy young he is a prospect and use Smoltz and Glavine as examples because there were not prospects when they did that.
Tell us all the minimum requirements to being a PROSPECT and then tell me why a guy who HAS made the major leagues doesn’t fit!
There are many people who follow the minors and many non GM’s or scouts that write for publications or websites like Baseball America, Project prospect, Scouting the Sally, Minor league ball, Major league bonus baby, Mets Minor League and many other websites as well.
You may not be interested but many other people are interested in the opinions of these writers, some of whom are former scouts and many fans look beyond just this year and like to know who we might have for a spot down the road so we can avoid the old “well you else were we going to get to play ____.” to explain away yet another bad free agent signing.
Your last post was kind of hard to understand.
Potential is the primary attribute of a prospect.
“then tell me why a guy who makes the Major Leagues NOT a prospect when compared.”
I’m not sure what your trying to say here. Is it a lower valued prospect who surpasses a more highly rated one and goes on to have a good career? If that’s what your trying to ask then I would tell you that prospects status goes up and down with their results. Hitters who lower their K’s, raise their BB’s, turn some of their singles into doubles and some doubles into HR’s see their stock rise, one’s who stay the same see their stock wane.
I don’t know how to respond to your question about Glavine and Smoltz. No one can win a Cy Young when their in the minors. Glavine was drafted in the 2nd round. Obviously the Braves identified him as a potential future starting pitcher. Then drafted and signed him and then set out to develop him. This paid huge dividends for the Braves Organization. Smoltz was a 22nd round pick by Detroit. When the Tigers came calling for Doyle Alexander someone in the Braves organization decided they wanted Smoltz. Why? They saw potential. His results in A ball his first year were mediocre and his second year (the year that he was traded) flat out bad. The following year his results were great and a year later he’s in the Majors.
I find that sort of thing interesting because there can be no question that Glavine and Smoltz were a big part of the Braves success for a very long time.
I like to see what works and why not just in baseball but in everything. Clearly this is an example of something that worked great for Atlanta.
If your arguement is that prospects cant be prospects until they make the Majors then I just don’t know how to respond to that.
It is MY opinion and belief that if you need someone else to make an opinion FOR you it is a sign that you can not or are not smart enough to make your OWN opinion and instead require others to THINK for you!
Do you let someone else tell you how you should vote for president?
Do you have some person you hardly know tell you where to invest your money?
Do you let others make every decision for you?
I personally like to make my OWN evaluations not be led by some guy who got his job because he was merely good at spelling and grammar!
And since you insist on talking about the Braves…
Tell us when is Jujens and Prado getting into the Hall?
Anytime soon?
If not then why were they PROSPECTS and Ike Davis not?
DEFINE what makes a kid a prospect before he actually makes a major league team please.
If you can’t then it is not a FACTUAL label just a gut feeling which means your basing your decisions of who is good not on fact but belief!
Well Metsie. I don’t have the access to minor league games or the expertise to differentiate between two similar young players. I am however smart enough to realize though that drafting or signing Javy Lopez, Brian Mcann, Ryan Klesko, Adam La Rouche, Freddie Freeman, Mark Lemke, Martin Prado, Rafeal Furcal, Yuneiski Escobar, Chipper Jones, Ron Gant, Andruw Jones, David Justice, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery, Mark Wholers, Kerry Lightenberg, Rick Camp, John Rocker, Adam Wainwright, Brian Hunter, Kent Mercer helped produce those 16 playoff seasons in the last two decades as opposed to our expensive free agent or end of his career trade acquisition model which produced three.
I’m also smart enough to understand that having a Jair Jurjens coming up through the farm can help prevent you from signing an Ollie Perez just as much as a Martin Prado coming up at 2B can eliminate your need to sign a Luis Castillo. Most people understand this.
Futhermore I never said Ike wasn’t a prospect. What I said was after playing in low A he was considered to be a potential bust. He was a little older than most in that league and yet he displayed no power and played two positions traditionally associated with power. This was in response to your saying that the Met farm system was ranked low because of recent graduates. That’s not true. Ike had only 1 year where he would have moved the opinion of the Met farm system positively and he also had a year where he would have if anything moved it negatively.
Not sure what my investment strategies or political leanings have to do with anything but yes I do listen to my accountant and the people I invest with as if that has anything to do with the minor leagues.
You have provided us with an interesting insight Metsie. Apparently you don’t listen to anyone. That’s because you know it all. Only your opinion is correct and it is so 100% of the time even when it’s in direct confrontation with actual factual results, or just made up to support your position.
I suppose anyone can have their own opinion of what exactly a prospect is. For myself I would define it as anyone who signed a professional contract, after that it’s up to them to justify that label, enhance it and take it to the next level and do the same. At some point one would either graduate to the Majors, drop out of pro ball or remain as organizational filler. Any of these would end someone’s status as a “prospect.”
Now that we have surrounded that pressing concern we can go back to our own opinions about the value of a good farm system. I believe it’s vital. I see the success it has brought teams that develop high ceiling talent and fill in behind it, I’ve also seen teams try it the free agent way and fill in behind with scrubs. I feel the first way is far more productive. You would prefer to debate the meaning of the word “prospect.” I don’t find that to be productive in the least, I mean if you have to ask……
Dude will you stop with the cut and pasting of every player the Braves ever drafted especially since half those names SUCK!
They are nothing more than guy who made it to the majors and not even on the level of what Davis has accomplished…None were ever in the running for rookie of the year.
Yes I understand you don’t have access to the minor league games but that doesn’t make someone else’s opinion valid.
Your using a belief system to judge success and hindsight to show correctness while you have not allowed the Met counterparts the time or benefit of hindsight.
Just because they haven’t had 10 years to show you like the Braves guys did doesn’t make them lesser players than the guys the braves brought up.
If that were the case then EVERY BRAVE prospect also is NOT a prospect because they haven’t done squat compared to the guys the mets have just recently promoted.
If you want to compare you have to make comparisons based on IDENTICAL criteria. You are not doing this you are dismissing the youth the mets promoted and dismissing their potential and not dismissing the Braves guys because they have 10 years worth of numbers and they only have it because they got promoted 10 years ago!
They are not Better and like I said half those names are nothing more than decent ML players who have achieved not a single accolade since they were promoted.
Yet you are calling them PROSPECTS!
Why?
EXPLAIN?
Is it because they made it to the major leagues is that all they have done?
Well then the Mets have a ton of prospects just look at all the rookies that fill the roster!
Javy Lopez got ROY votes, won a silver slugger and got MVP votes and went to All Star games, so has Brian McCann, so has Andruw Jones (plus gold gloves),so has Rafael Furcal who WAS a ROY, so has David Justice (a 4th rounder) who WAS a ROY.
Prado came in 9th in the MVP ballotting and went to an All Star game. Chipper Jones has gotten MVP votes in 12 of his 17 seasons and WON one. Ron Gant went to all star games 4 times, got MVP votes 4 times won a silver slugger andd came in 4th in the ROY. Escobar came in 6th in the ROY and got MVP votes in his 3rd year. Glavine won 2 Cy Youngs, came in 2nd twice and 3rd twice went to 10 all star games got MVP votes 5 times and even won the silver slugger twice. Klesko went to an All Star game and came in 3rd in the ROY. Avery came in 6th in the Cy Young one year and went to an All Star game. Mike Stanton went to an all star game and came in 8th in the ROY. Even a guy who didn’t win any of those awards is valuable like Mark Lemke. He played a competent 2B for Atlanta for a decade on both sides of the ball while we have gone out and gotten Alomar, Matsui and Castillo. And it’s your feeling that the products of the Braves farm system are the one’s who suck. That’s an opinion that very few other people share Metsie.
Heyward will win an MVP (he got votes in his first season and came in 2nd in the ROY and went to the All star game) Kimbrell is my pick for ROY this year but he might have to beat out his teammate Freddie Freeman.
Your right Metsie, half of these All Stars, MVP and Cy Young candidates, silver sluggers, gold glovers and rookies of the year suck and had nothing to do with the Braves going to the playoffs 16 times in 20 years.
* meant MVP votes (not awards)
So Metsie, in your opinion the Braves drafting, signing and developing Javy Lopez, Brian McCann, Ryan Klesko, Adam La Roche, Freddie Freeman, Mark Lemke, Martin Prado, Rafeal Furcal, Yuneisky Escobar, Chipper Jones, Ron Gant, Andruw Jones, David Justice, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery, Mark Wholers, Kerry Lightenberg, Rick Camp, John Rocker, Mike Stanton, Adam Wainwright and Brian Jordan had nothing to do with them going to the playoffs 16 times in 20 years?
Jones and Glavine maybe…but you forgot Maddox and Smoltz.
The rest were all bit players
And 16 playoffs but how many WS wins?
Well I didn’t include Maddox because he was a free agent and I didn’t include Smoltz because although he fits my definition of homegrown (he was identified by the Braves Scouts albeit while in someone else’s system) and then developed by the Braves, he may not fit yours.
But those 4 players surrounded by guys like Castillo, Perez, Alou, Bay, Putz, Murphy, Francouer, Barajas, Santos, Schneider, Church, Redding and backed up with guys like Cora, Jacobs, Sullivan, GMJ, Catalonotto, Reed, and a pen with Schowenweiss, Mota, Sosa ect would have provided the same results that we have experienced the last few years.
Getting to the post season is the truest test of a team. 162 games, not 3-19. In a short series in this sport anything can happen especially if you run into a team in the World Series that was put together the same way like I showed you last week. A team like the NYY who had 13 homegrown players and got 4 more main pieces in trades for their farmhands giving them 17 of 24 players directly produced or acquired by their farm and only 1 compensatable type A free agent.
Thats an assumption not a fact on your part. And where did Francouer come up from? Wasn’t it the Braves?
They were not a great hitting team they were a good pitching team with enough hitting to make a sub 3.0 ERA work.
Jones is not much better than a Wright is.
Justice is not much better than a Pagan or Davis.
You only think they were better due to hindsight. And Davis and Wright could have much better careers than either of them when hindsight is applied!
They were just a good team with GREAT pitching and NO COMPETITION (including us and the Phillies) which made them look much better than anyone else in the W-L columns but showed how they were merely mortal when they had to beat the rest of the league in the playoffs and WS!
Wright is not even close to Chipper Jones. Not even close. Wright has huge platoon splits, Chipper has none. That not only makes Chipper much more dangerous, it also makes everyone else better (like Beltran does, or did, depending)
Justice might not be a bad comparison for Ike, but still Ike has a long way to go.
Prado could even be a good comp for Pagan but Pagan hasn’t gone to an all star game or gotten MVP votes. But again at the very top echelon of Atlanta’s farm you have multiple Cy Young’s, and MVP and about a dozen different guys who’ve actually gotten MVP awards and plenty more who have gone to All Star games. It’s not just that they have so many more guys at the very top, but at the middle and bottom too. That depth allows them to field a competitive team every year while our lack of depth leads to crashes and free agent signing we soon come to regret.
One product of the Braves farm system was Marcus Giles. He played very well as a 53rd round draft pick. He went to an All Star game and won MVP votes twice. Our second basemen since 2004 have been the worst in the Majors and yet the Braves while getting 10 times better production paid 100 times less for it.
Not in any business, in any industry can you remain competitive while paying the most and getting the least.
Homegrown players that have gone to the All Star game and gotten MVP votes in the last 2 decades for us are Alfonzo, Hundley, Reyes and Wright. Not even close to what the Braves have done, not even close.
If anything our farm system has been overrated. The stagnation of Fern, collapse of Holt, injuries to Havens and lack of properly developing Mejia and Tejada has resulted in both slower development and poor production in the Majors when they got here.
At one time all those players were considered to be the farm teams true strength but despite the promising signs that moved the Met farm system up the rankings the slow down in their progression has lowered their status and shown our system to if anything, overrated.
Anybody else excited about what this team could look like for the forseeable future? my prediction is that Emaus/Murphy pan out as a viable platoon at 2B, they let Reyes walk and move Havens back to SS. That wouldn’t be such a terrible thing, if you consider what you lose in speed you are gaining in on base ability. Not saying I want it to happen but I wouldn’t hate the idea. But let’s face it, best case scenario is an infield next year of Wright, Reyes, Havens, Davis. which is pretty elite in my book. and the rotaton is pretty set. maybe package Pelfrey in a deal for a solid top of the rotation arm or something. lineup and rotation could realistically be…
C – Thole
1B – Davis
2B – Havens
SS – Reyes
3B – Wright
LF – Bay
CF – Pagan
RF – Duda, F-Mart, Kirk
SP – Johan, Niese, Dickey, Pelfrey, Mejia/Gee/Cohoon/Harvey
RP – Parnell/K-Rod
“these guys don’t look too f****n bad” — major league
Color me shock, an article talking crap about the Mets and their future? Is this anything new from what we’ve been seeing for the past 2 years or so? I mean really, most of us believe its hit or miss this year with good reason as the potential is there but at the same time, We’re the Mets.
If anything, I’d love to see the Mets come close to if not make the postseason, not just for our benefit, but to just stop crap like this from being written every time someone asks about the Mets.
Also, blow up the Mets? This guy on crack? Seriously? Oh, did you guys know that Pelfrey is a 3 or 4 at best? And I know Young has to stay injury free, but, he looked pretty damn good last night.
Keep playing good defense and timely hitting. Quiet all the morons out there who want us to give them our best players.
I have been watching baseball for a long time. My thing is the Mets oganization is all about who they like and not who is best for the positions. That’s why I think they will never win a world series or even come close. I was down spring training for a couple of days. Had the opportunity to chat with some players. Outstanding preformances and come home and a few were released. My feeling is they already know who they are going to keep before spring training even begins. Take for instinctance Chism. Lowest ERA last year. Outstanding job on the mound in spring training. And he didnt even make a long season team! They never have even giving him a chance like many others on the team. They need to get rid of Sandy and put a pitching coordinator who loves the game of winning!!! Not the boys!!!
He’s only got 50 IP in two years, 40 of them over two seasons in rookie ball and at 23 they may not consider him to be a real prospect. Alderson hasn’t even seen him until February. Hopefully he’ll do well, get moved up and get his chance.
My exact point! Only 50 IP…Like so many pitchers in the league. Not even given the chance to prove what he has…To me having the lowest ERA out of the whole organization in 2010 would be prove enough for a chance. ..(and mind you, the next ERA in pitcher wasn’t even close to his) Oh that’s right!! He’s not Latio!!!! What about Flagg…his release..and alot of others…I just dont get it. I realize its a business fighting for a position…but some of this guys never even get a chance…My thing is if your not going to give them a chance, release chism…I would put money on it..someone would pick him up!!!! Why wait like they did with Flagg @ 25 and no place to go! Considered to old…
Really? We’re still doing the “Los Mets” garbage?
It couldn’t possibly be that it would better for Chism to get some more reps in the minors? You saw him pitch some glorified batting practice and you know better than the guys who evaluate talent and scout players for a living?
How many starting pitchers in the big league today had only 50 IP in the minors?
I didnt say he pitched glorified batting pactices. My statement was that he had the lowest ERA in the whole Mets organization and why not give him the “chance” he earned it!
you say, quote:
How many starting pitchers in the big league today had only 50 IP in the minors?
How many were close to his ERA? numbers!! Thats what I thought you looked at!!!!
and if he had the lowest EAR..you tell me why he only had 50 IP?!! ummm I could only imagine if he had pitched more innings!! Afterall, the more you pitch the stronger you get! I would think! Look I just see good strong guys play, whether he be a pitcher, catcher, fielder..and I have seen them get released.
KC, u really need to get out more & away from the 2K platforms as there is so much more to successful MLB pitching than u obviously are willing to account for 50IP?, A uselessly small sample, if absolutely nothing else the NYM pitching situation,should at the very least prove there is much more that has to do with the pitcher’s psyche than his ability, I’m rather certain in stating that Aaron Heilman, John Maine, Oliver Perez, Mike Pelfrey and many many more have at least 50 innings of HOF quality pitching somewhere in their resume’. Just as non Met examples, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Tyler Clippard so it’s not just Flushing related. 50IP? Really? thats’s what? 6 starting appearances of 8 innings each?
Do u have any clue, how many gambles have been taken on seemingly miraculous socalled phenoms promoted too soon to “THE SHOW”? nearly 90% of which remain mere curiosities among the footnotes of a Season.
ABILITY IS OF LITTLE ACCOUNT….WITHOUT OPPORTUNITY