28
2011
MMO Fanpost: Anatomy of an At-Bat!
An article by 
* * * Metsmerized Fan Post * * *
Submitted by Metsie
For months now I have tried to explain the concept of aggressively protecting the plate with two strikes. The concept is pretty simple. In any at bat you start off:
1 – You look for your pitch or a pitch you can drive and swing. (This is a key part no matter what the count!)
2 – Take whatever balls the pitcher presents to you until you have two strikes against you.
3 – Swing at pitches (with two strikes) that are close enough to call a strike and make enough contact to at least foul it off.
4 – Rinse and Repeat #3 until the pitcher throws an irrefutable ball or makes a mistake you can drive.
The idea behind this concept and why it works and is important is also simple. The whole purpose is to take fate out of the umpires hands so he can not punch you out on a borderline strike, and to see as many pitches from a pitcher as is possible in order to tire him out and hope he makes a mistake that you can crush.
Pitch Sequence:
Daniel Murphy, Top of the 8th, Two Outs, Score 2-1 Washington
- 80 Changeup Ball
- 80 Changeup Ball
- 93 Fastball (Four-seam) Foul
- 93 Fastball (Four-seam) Foul
- 93 Fastball (Four-seam) Foul
- 81 Changeup Ball
- 94 Fastball (Four-seam) Foul
- 82 Changeup In play, run(s)
Two Changeups – Murphy went up there looking for a fastball. What he got were two changeups that were outside of the zone. He waited, count 2-0…
First Fastball – He takes a good hack but just a bit behind. Count 2-1.
Second Fastball – Take another hack, Timing was good but was a little under it. Count 2-2 Defensive mode starts.
Third Fastball – (Could have been called a ball) Murphy actually is too fast on this pitch and fouls it off. Count still 2-2.
Another Changeup - This one in the dirt. Murphy takes the pitch Count 3-2.
Fourth Fastball - At 94 mph, the fastest pitch in the AB. Murphy is actually too fast on this one too but gets enough to foul it off and extend the AB. He decides that because he has seen so many fastballs and has had no problems catching up to it that he can wait a little longer in his timing and try to identify the pitch. This is only possible when you have had 7 Pitches and 4 fastballs to look at.
Final Pitch Changeup - Murphy identifies it because he has seen plenty of pitches and has his timing on the pitcher down pat, the pitch is a mistake with too much plate. Murphy crushes it! Game tied should have been Mets up by one if not for a bad Umpire call!
This at-bat is a classic example of aggressive plate protection that forces the pitcher to either fool you or wait for you to make a mistake. If you stay under control and don’t make that mistake then at some point the pitcher will tire out or make a mistake that leads to a very good hit. By fouling off close pitches you remove the ability of an umpire to make a bonehead call like was made in the case of Reyes last night and your fate is pretty much determined by YOUR ability, not someone else’s inability!
If you want to be a champion and win games you almost have to will yourself to do so. The Mets after being fired up by a bad call on Reyes and Murphy’s excellent batting approach did just that last night!
On a side note (because I know the replies will try to say this about me) You should read my past posting regarding Murphy, the glove and offense over fielding before you make some dumb uninformed post regarding my love of Daniel Murphy.
So far all of his mistakes have been in the fielding which is expected from a player who has the lack of experience he does at his assigned position. We saw this presented with his lack of covering second in the bottom of that inning – where if he had they might not have tied the game. But if he continues to hit and approach his hitting in the manner he exhibited in the 8th inning last night, then those mistakes are not an issue and in time they will even go away as he learns the position.
It was a good win for the Mets, and a GREAT at bat by Murphy.
If guys like David Wright and Ike Davis (who has improved in this area) learn to start protecting the plate with two strikes on them and forcing the pitcher to throw more pitches, that will lead to more hittable pitches and wins like these will not be a rarity, they will be the norm!
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This is what the Yankees preach to all their hitters going back to the early nineties. It’s a tried and proven recipe for success. Better at-bats leads to more hits which leads to more runs which leads to more wins. It sounds simplistic, but it’s what the game is all about.
The reason I brought it up was because I have seen too much attention paid to the OBP and trying to work walks in favor of increasing that OBP.
When we were in the doldums of our early slump, there were far too many CALLED third strikes and if this approach was implemented they would not have been called strikes.
Good Hitters protect the strike zone with two strikjes on them. Bad hitters try to work out a walk and in most cases get punched out because an umpire lives to show who is in charge.
Not only does this approach tire out the pitcher it increases the pitch count, and gets you to the bullpen quicker where the pitcher does not have the stamina to get into a rythmn not to mention the fact that he is likely to show more of his pitches to the batter at the plate and the guys due up after him.
It should be a fundamental approach taught to every major league player but in the last few years the OBP has ruled the day and the passive taking of the walk has led to abandonment of such fundamentally sound and PROVEN approaches at the plate.
Thats what infuriates me with many of Wright’s at bats. He takes too many called strike three. he has no concept about fouling off pitches until he gets one he can hammer. Wright never has good at bats, he only get great results when he does make contact. with a more aggressive approach and a better job of protecting the strike zone, he would have a HOF career.
Wright hasn’t been covering the outside corner for a while now. He’s been waving at stuff he can’t reach and lately taking it. Many of his AB’s follow the same pattern. Pitch 1 – called strike right down the middle Pitch 2 – high FB fouled straight back Pitch 3 – High FB up and in Pitch 4 – Slider he waves at on the outside corner.
The remedy for this is to look first pitch FB and CRUSH it. That will change the pitchers approach and now your up 1-0. If you then take the high FB for ball 2 your in command.
C’mon David it’s been two years of this.
Two years…Right about the time when everyone started saying where are all of david’s Homeruns?
His problem is they asked and he is trying to comply!
He is not a prototypical HR hitter!
Sure he hits some but they are a result of staying controlled, working the count, protecting the plate and getting 30 pitches a season he can crush.
For the past two years he has been going for the POWER instead of the average and that is what has turned 20 more ABs into Ks instead of the 4 or 5 HRs and the .030 points of average he used to have!
He is basically swinging for the fences when he should be swinging for the ball instead!
David’s problems are less to do with passivity than over agressivness.
Wrights problems have always been a lack of control on his swing and out guessing himself on the pitch. He is very vulnerable to the low outside pitch because he is too busy trying to hit HRs and over swinging. He sees something he thinks he can extend his arms on and unless it is actually a strike he misses it. On the times he takes a called third strike it is usually because he expected one pitch and got another.
This IS related to the approach, you should not be trying to guess what is coming and trying to PREDICT the pitch once you have two strikes.
You must switch to a REACTIVE mode where you look for something but are ready for anything.
Murphy did this successfully, Took his hacks on the fastballs and then with two strikes wasted another fastball forcing the pitcher to throw 5 in a row (which would have been dumb because the last one went straight back meaning the timing was right he just was a little under it) or throw something else.
That something else was in the dirt but because Murphy had seen enough fastballs and realize that he could turn on him fast enough to wait a little longer in the swing he was READY for that Changeup and not ahead due to a predictive anticipation and assumption on what was coming. He stayed back and waited for the changeup that came and that was because he could wait and identify what was coming and REACT accordingly.
Ike has really been the worst offender in taking a called strike three.
Pagan has done it a lot this year as well as has quite a few others during that bad early loss streak.
Nothing scares a pitcher more than someone out in front of their 2-2 FB, especially a 2 pitch pitcher like Clippard. In a situation where the hitter is the potential tying run the pitcher knows he cannot risk a walk. There was very little choice. Risk the FB again, knowing Murphy’s right on it or try the change but bring it into the strike zone. That’s what he did. Tried to mess with Murphy’s timing of his FB but it was Murphy not biting on the 3 prior changeups he threw that made him throw Murphy a strike.
Dude with no one on he could have easily threw that changeup for a ball, in fact it was probably his INTENTION to make that a ball on the outside part but he missed.
There was no reason to be scared of Murphy at that point, he had the lead the bases were empty and he could have easily just pitched to the next guy who has been an easy strikeout of late.
Murphy didn’t scare him he merely killed all of his attempts to paint a fastball by him and when he threw the change it hung.
Probably because he was damn tired throwing all those fastballs to no avail!
Dude. One of the things that gets an eighth inning guy mop up duty real quick is walking the potential tying run, especially with 3, 4, and 5 coming up next.
The change maynot have been exactly where Clippard wanted to put it but he most definitely was throwing it for a strike…..Because Murphy made him.
I also doubt he was tired. He had thrown 5 pitches in the 7th and 6 more in the 8th before the Murphy AB. I mean how tired could he have been? He had even had a few days off before last nights game.
Tag what you say would be true you know the only DUMBER thing you can do to get yourself in trouble than walking the tying run?
Throw a changeup over the middle of the plate INTENTIONALLY!
He tried to get Murphy to swing and miss at the Fastballs. He did swing but did not miss!
He then tried to get him to swing at the changeup in the dirt. He didn’t.
And then came back with a fastball. Didn’t work.
The pitch Murphy hit was a CLEAR mistake!
NO PITCHER in ANY SITUATION would intentionally throw a Changeup fat in the strike zone!
The pitch Murphy hit was a mistake not an attempt to strike him out! That pitch was probably also meant to be in the dirt or low and outside but the pitcher missed.
Your attempt to try and say the pitcher intended to throw that pitch because of previous changeups flys against the face of logic.
Most changeups are not meant to be thrown as strikes.
They are meant to fool the batter and get him to miss based on timing not location. And because Murphy fouled off all those pitches it actually HELPED his timing so that the change of speeds was not an issue and therefore could not fool the batter!
Metsie I cannot say for sure but I strongly believe that he was trying to to get him to miss on timing but because Murphy didn’t bite on the change low he brought it up.
He really only has two choices against LHP. 4 seam and change. The four seam was getting timed to the point that Murphy was now ahead of it. Good time to change speeds but at 3-2 He was at the very least forced to bring it up to look like the FB. Not saying he put it exactly where he wanted but Murphy forced him to bring it into a spot he would have preferred not to and then probably missed the exact spot he wanted.
No way a pitcher is walking the potential tying run in the eights inning. At 3-2 outside corner maybe but the intent of the pitch is to beat you on timing, location only matters if you don’t meet your primary goal.
Murphy made him elevate the change to give the appearance of the fastball by taking three previous changes for balls.
Dude, if he intended to throw a high changeup then that in itself (that thinking) IS the Mistake!
Anytime you throw a changeup that fat after the guy just fouled off four straight fatsballs you screwed yourself.
That changeup if you look at the setup was supposed to be low and outside. It was neither the pitch got away from him and it got crushed.
Bottomline is it was a MISTAKE! A Mistake that would not have been possible if he took one of those close enough to call fastballs because he would have been punched out by the UMP!
He was able to foul off those pitches because with two strikes he expanded the zone to be sure that the only thing that got by him was NO DOUBT outside the strike zone.
Placido Polance showed a lot of this last night. All the best hitters do!
With two strikes they expand the strike zone in their head and protect that zone by fouling off pitches until the pitcher makes a mistake be it throwing an obvious ball or throwing a fat pitch!
I would guess your confusing it with being aggressive at the plate because the same guys who like OBP use the opposite extreme to sell OBP! But we are not talking about being aggressive in the at bat we are talking about being defensive once the two strikes are on you.
Then you foul off pitches that are “CLOSE ENOUGH TO CALL” in order to extend the AB so you can try and get a pitch you can hit or as a consolation take the walk on a pitch the Umpire could never call a strike because it was outside even your expanded strike zone!
The changeup was a MISTAKE, Either a mistake of execution or as you think a mistake in strategy. That mistake was not possible if he let one of those close enough to call fastballs go un tipped and called a strike by the UMP!
Murphy took the decision away from the Umpire by doing so and forced the pitcher to throw enough pitches to be ready for anything and when anything was a mistake deposited it over the fence!
Nice job on this. Coming as it did right after the Reyes botched call, Murphy may have had a little extra motivation during that at bat. Definitely a lesson there for the whole team.
Nice post, very good job Metsie but OB is first and foremost about the hit and as you state hitting is about getting your pitch. The simple fact is that Murphy got his pitch because he didn’t swing at those 3 prior changeups that were all balls. HE MADE THE PITCHER BRING THE LAST CHANGEUP OVER THE PLATE BY NOT SWINGING AT THE PRIOR CHANGEUPS THAT WERE OFF THE PLATE. If he had the whole AB would have been different.
Batting average and slugging percentage are so much greater when your in a hitter count than when your in a pitchers count. If the pitcher can get you into a pitchers count without throwing a strike he will. You 100% right about protecting the plate with two strikes but it comes down to pitch recognition. Clippard (a two pitch pitcher against LH hitters) wanted to end that AB on the 6th pitch, a change. Murphy didn’t show the hint of gullability on it. He got his fastball on 3-2 but was a little quick but recognized the change and the situation (never walk the potential tying run) and because he had shown himself to not be gullable made Clippard bring the change to him rather than go out and get it.
The walks are just a byproduct of having a good AB. If that last change had been a ball like the first 3 Murphy would have most likely taken it too and walked down to first. As it was Murphy made Clippard bring it closer than he wanted and Murphy timed it impeccably.
Most AB’s are won in the first 3 pitches even when it concludes before or after the 3rd pitch. This one was no different, it was won by not putting himself in an early hole by fishing for something off the plate.
No BIG hits are about getting your pitch. But you can not FORCE a pitcher to give you your pitch you can only hope to waste as many of his GOOD pitches as you can in hope that he will miss and give you what you want.
But hitting/OB in general is about taking what is given and going with what is presented.
In some cases what is given is a walk. But with two strikes you better be damn sure it is a ball and if it is close enough to call then it was close enough to swing at and at least foul off. Sure this will sometimes lead to a ground out or pop fly but at least you did not give into the notion that the pitcher calls the shots. If you put the ball in play they still have to field it and we have seen many times how what looks like a bad hit turns into an OB due to a fielder’s error or bloop hit.
In some cases it is going the other way with a pitch that is outside. It’s not YOUR pitch but it is something you can hit where they are not!
But by fighting off the pitcher with two strikes you increase the chances that he will miss because that is simply a matter of the law of probability.
And as more pitches are thrown the chance of YOUR pitch coming also increased.
The whole concept is to make the pitcher work. Every pitch he throws is one more pitch closer to his tiring, mistake making and pitch count.
By doing this from inning one you can knock a pretty good pitcher out by the 5th inning if you do not give into him and let him dictate the terms of your result.
You will get fooled there is no way around that, You will MISS on YOUR pitch as well, that is also going to happen.
But the more pitches you see and the more pitches he throws the greater the chance of you not only getting th OB but one in a manner that can drive in anyone who did the same and got OB ahead of you!
Bottomline if you want to win you have to MAKE it happen not wait for it to happen or be given to you!
Which is what they seemed to be doing during that long stretch of losing!
I understand what your saying Metsie but I don’t think that AB really illustrates your point about fighting off two strike pitches. Murphy got what he wanted by not swinging at what the pitcher wanted him to, he just missed it.(was out in front of it) Having demonstrated that he could turn Clippard’s FB around he made Clippard go back to the change but throw it for a strike.
The whole key to that AB was the three change ups he didn’t swing at. That’s what made Clippard have to throw him the one changeup that he did swing at. The only one that was over the plate.
It was over the plate because Murphy dictated to the pitcher that he had to throw it over the plate or put the potential tying run on base.
The pitch he wanted him to swing at were the fastballs!
He threw two chageups out of the zone to try and catch him first pitch swinging. He didn’t.
What happened in the first 4 Pitches is irrelevant! What is key is what happened in the last 3 where the Batter was one strike away from walking back to the bench.
Fouling off the last fastball that was up in the zone and probably a ball is the pivitol pitch that showed Murphy he was timed correctly and that he had MORE time to size up and identify the pitch before swinging. If he lets that pass it was close enough for the unpire to call a strike, AB over!
So he waited on the next two pitches, The Changeup in the dirt identified and layed off. No Swing!
The Fastball that was again fouled off because it was not a very hittable pitch but close enough to be called a strike.
And the final changeup that was a MISTAKE not a pitch thrown to where the pitcher wanted it (unless he is dumb) and crushed!
The only argument you could make is that the pitcher intended to throw that chageup where it was. And by not swinging at the balls he made him throw one for a strike.
And if you think that then there is no point in even discussing this at all because your premise is dumb. NO PITCHER would EVER throw a changeup where that ball was INTENTIONALLY!
No matter what the batter did in the previous chageup offerrings or no matter what the game situation was.
EVEN if the bases were loaded in a tie game the choice would not be to throw a changeup over the fat part of the plate the choice would have been throw another fastball and hope to get it by him!
Very good job with this post and Murphy surprises me more and more each day. I did not have him pegged as a starter but right now I would not take him out of the 2 hole even when Angel comes back.
The defense I’m still very jittery about and luckily he did come through or else that mental lapse could’ve helped cost us the game. Somebody is going to have to work with him about the instincts, the coverage, and the overall strategy of second base too, not just the fielding part of it. That being said i am stunned he’s come this far as a second baseman. I still have to see more, though before I’m completely convinced he can become a regular second baseman – and I think that approach is STILL smart.
Yes Murphy does work the counts BUT in an aggressive manner looking to get a pitch to hit and NOT walk.
But those types of guys were probably like that they’re entire playing careers even going back to HS or before. I read somewhere that Ike had a good eye even in college.
That’s the problem with all these new people reading stuff like moneyball and saber, they think EVERYBODY should be doing things like taking walks and it’s simply wrong.
They all have one mind, unfortunately for them baseball does not operate in ONE way only.
All players are different and you coach them to their strengths, but trying to change them is almost impossible. You can’t take a free swinger and turn him into a selective contact hitter
If the bat can overcome the loss due to the glove then it’s not a big problem.
And as long as Murphy keeps making the routines and only a few experience foibles then the bat will more than make up for the fielding.
and I disagree with one point.
You CAN teach a proper approach to a free swinging batter.
WHEN you swing is a mental issue. If you have good swing mechanics (Swing Level, Good bat control, and Decent timing) you can be taught how to approach at bats and make good contact and reduce those strikeouts.
Just about ALL HR hitters have high K numbers because they are over swinging and do not control the swing in favor of increased power.
Power is the opposite of control! The more you control the less POWER is being used. This is why choking up on the bat leads to high BA but less power. You are essentially trading off power for control. It is when you can balance BOTH which guys like Beltran and K Hernandez do very well. The BA stays up and the Power comes as a natural extention of the right balance between control and power.
Wright needs to dial it down a notch on the power and get back the control he once had. He used to be a deadly two strike hitter before he made it to the finals of that HR derby and since then it would seem he has been swinging for the fences resulting in 20 more Ks per season!
Wright should try choking up with 2 strikes I don’t know if he does.
That’s another thing, how can you once be an outstanding 2 strike hitter then suddenly not?
Doesn’t HGH enhance eyesight?
No he doesn’t but he doesn’t have to choke up. All he needs to do is stop thinking Long Ball and start thinking CONTACT once he has two strikes on him.
He is strong enough to foul off just about any pitch that is close enough to call but not fat enough to hit.
He needs to stop thinking about the fences and the dingers. Just concentrate on making good contact then the HRs and fences will not be an issue. Neither will the low outside pitch!
A good eye is more than just being able to identify a strike and a ball. It also includes having the Eye to make contact with a ball that has movement.
I’ve been impressed with Ike’s development in his second year. His approach has changed and he often does situational hitting now. He’ll plunk a ball into left field when the team is in a close game and he wants to get on base or knock in a run.
David Wright doesn’t do much of what Ike is now doing. It seems to me that besides going to right field with a pitch, he’s always swinging with the intent of knocking the ball through (lol) or over the fence. It’s too bad because he’s lost some of his value with his predctable batting approach.
Getting back to Ike, he’s changed some aspects of his batting stance, according to Keith. He’s dropped his hands so he has less movement when he begins his swing. Also, he often spreads his legs farther in the batting box to minimize lower body moving parts. I’m impressed.
Yeah I saw the Keith bit last night. He did a better job explaining Murphy than Ike I thought.
But I agree Ike has changed his approach a bit and it has served him well.
He will still have problems with the high strike due to his swing and it will be interesting to see how they adjust to him this year and how fast he re-adjust to it.
Like I said so far he has really been the player of the month. Definitly the most consistent batter we have and he has made some very impressive fielding plays as well such as going home for the force to save the run last night.
“Wright needs to dial it down a notch on the power and get back the control he once had. He used to be a deadly two strike hitter before he made it to the finals of that HR derby and since then it would seem he has been swinging for the fences resulting in 20 more Ks per season!”
Metsie, I totally agree. That homer competition was the beginning of the slide. Too bad.
Sadly I think thats where he fell in love with the HR and it has turned a .300 hitter with 25-30 HRs into a .280-.290 hitter with 140 Ks and STILL only 25-30 Hrs.
OBP is not about looking to take walks, its about not swing at pitches out of the zone. Really it is very compatible with Metsie’s approach.
Frank Thomas was a feared hitter and during his prime years one of the great power hitters. But he also walked at a very high rate. Because he didn’t put himself in a hole and forced the pitcher to come to him. Particularly with men on base when the pitcher had no choice but to pitch to him.
Murphy know HOW to hit.
Well John all I can say is Frank Thomas had a high OBP because he was a good hitter, The reverse is not also true.
The problem is people want to use OBP as an evaluator stat. But in doing so they evaluate and give credit to a player things that he did not himself do.
A Walk and a HBP are both products of what the pitcher did not the batter!
You can have a high OBP and a lousy BA. But you can’t have a High BA and also a lousy OBP!
And to say to some player “Get the OBP numbers Up!” is telling him to walk more since he can’t just jump in front of pitches to get a HBP.
Mentioning OBP to a player or to pick a player based on OBP if favoring the walk to be as good as a hit.
Who is the better player?
Player A OBP .500 BA .200
Player B OBP .500 BA .300
If the pitcher does not throw a ball and merely throws strikes who will have the higher OBP at the end of the day?
OBP is a bad tool to use because it hides the actual player merit in it’s numbers and obscures what was ACTUALLY creditable to the batter.
And many who like the OBP stat say BA is unimportant. That is until they come to that situation I described above.
This is what happened to Emaus who had a bad BA but a good OBP when selected.
And they threw him strikes! When they didn’t and he had a hitters count he walked more than hit! (which blows the get a good pitch theory out of the water!) But when behind and no chance to walk he was forced to swing and when he did he actually got some hits!
It’s a matter of diminishing goals!
If you believe the lesser is AS GOOD as the greater you will tailor your apporach towards the lesser when it should be tailored towards the greater!
Metsie what are you crazy. Because Emaus (a rookie) looked for a walk in a hitters count it “blows the get a good pitch theory out of the water?” One guy? A Rookie rule 5 pick with 50 AB’s invalidates 100 year theory of getting a good pitch to hit? I don’t think so.
Swinging at pitches you cannot do anything with costs you more points of you BA than anything else, not to mention how many less pitches you get to hit because of your gullibleness. Just look at Murph last night. Didn’t fish on 3 straight pitches yet landed the whale.
Yeah how many good pitches did he get to hit by being ahead in the count?
How many did he actually hit?
He also had more strikeouts when ahead in the count why didn’t he swing at those? Why was he punched out on called third strikes half the time?
Because he was waiting for his pitch>
He had 1 hit when ahead in the count and all of the remainder behind in the count.
So the data shows he got HIS PITCH to hit when he was behind in the count not ahead.
If he had taken a few hacks at those whren ahead he might have actually got some BETTER pitches to hit no matter what he was ahead or behind in the count!
And don’t forget – pitchers will always make good pitches and make batters swing at bad pitches out of the strike zone too. The pitcher’s influence in all these new alleged “theories” seems to have been forgotten.
No shortcut to success in athletic competition saber boys. You did not figure out anything.