19
2011
Mets Cut Brad Emaus and Promote Justin Turner
An article by 
UPDATE: Sandy Alderson must have been tuned into MMO today… The Mets responded to my post this morning and designated Brad Emaus for assignment. Justin Turner has been called up to replace him.
Remember what I said, don’t shed any tears for him..
Original Post 11:30 AM
A recent article by Eric Seidman of FanGraphs had me wondering why there was such a large effort by the advanced metrics community to see Brad Emaus win the second base job in spring training. There has been much said about the enormous potential Brad Emaus has, simply because he tends to walk as much as he strikes out. His one and only season in AAA last year has left too many drooling – even though the stats were skewed by a ballpark that makes CBP look gargantuan in size.
Let me include an excerpt from the FanGraph piece:
Brad Emaus was supposed to be the man at second base for the New York Mets this year. At least that’s what any reasonable person could have anticipated after a Spring Training in which the team cut ties with Luis Castillo, sent Justin Turner to the minor leagues, and slapped the utility tag on Daniel Murphy. Emaus profiled well, as Joe Pawlikowski noted, comparing nicely to fellow former Rule 5 pick Dan Uggla. For every reason imaginable, it was easy to see why Emaus was the popular in-house candidate: a 25-year-old, cost-controlled player with potential seemed exactly what the Mets needed to get back on track.
But Emaus was removed as the everyday starter after only six games. And he’s started half of the last eight. It’s pretty easy to see why — he’s posted an anemic 162/.262/.162 in 42 PA — but is it the right decision, based on such a limited number of plate appearances?
Dan Uggla?
That’s a heck of a comarison to make based on one season full of bloated stats… It’s quite a stretch, but anyway let me move on.
Why does Brad Emaus have anymore potential then let’s say – Daniel Murphy?
They are a year apart, but for some reason Murphy gets no love from many of the Emaus supporters. Why?
The theme of the FanGraphs article is that the author believes that the Mets are giving up too early on Brad Emaus based on too small a sample size. And while that may or may not be true, isn’t what manager Terry Collins sees with his own eyes more important than what the numbers say? Does a manger with over 20 years of experience in evaluating players really need 200 or 300 at-bats to determine how good or bad a player really is?
I could see if the case was being made that Emaus is the better second baseman because he’s stronger defensively than Murphy. But in many of these articles supporting Emaus, his defense is never even mentioned. It’s almost as if defense has nothing to do with it. There is absolutely no mention of defense in this article, only an urgency to stick with Brad Emaus because the author believes that the best is yet to come.
I decided to look at both Emaus and Murphy a little closer. I promise to be as objective as I can. Please note, that I too will ignore defense even though from what I’ve seen thus far, there is very little separation between the two defensively - a fact even Terry Collins alluded to.
To begin, lets first look at a comparison of their minor league career numbers.
Because the differences in at-bats were so stark, I opted to use the common statistical percentages to better evaluate the two, and I also threw in walks and strikeouts as a point of reference since it it seems to be one of the things that makes Emaus so beloved in the saber community.
As you can plainly see, Daniel Murphy holds his own against Emaus and their strikeout and walk rates are not that dissimilar.
But there’s one thing here that really makes Emaus’ overall numbers look better than they appear, and that was his one season playing in the rarefied air of Las Vegas in 2010 where he posted MVP type numbers.
While examining the two players, I discovered that they both played in the Eastern League while in Double-A. A perfect way to measure them on a level playing field I thought. Let’s look, shall we…
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Murphy absolutely demolishes Emaus across the board, and even all the extra walks that Emaus compiled couldn’t help him overtake Murphy in on-base percentage. Amazingly, Murphy has nearly 150 points more in OPS.
Another way of looking at that remarkable 2010 season Brad Emaus had, was by using a tool developed by a big numbers cruncher. It is called a Major League Equivalency Calculator. I inputted the numbers that Emaus posted in Las Vegas of the PCL. I then changed the output to reflect Citi Field in the National League East. Here are those results:
Wow… That’s quite a drop-off in production and a clear sign of just how skewed his 2010 season was.
Now I’m not trying to build a case for Murphy, even though the statistics do bear out that he has just as much if not more upside than Brad Emaus.
Plus… unlike Emaus, Murphy can play a variety of positions. But then there is the fact of actual major league production.
It’s unfair to compare them at a major league level thus far, but ignore what Emaus has or hasn’t done and consider that Murphy has had the equivalent of a little more than one solid rookie season worth of at-bats. Why should that be overlooked?
In the end, the most productive player should get the most playing time. I will leave that decision to what Terry Collins determines is the best course of action.
Now, I am a big believer in defense at second base… Especially with the rag-tag rotation we’ve assembled that needs all the help it can get. So maybe the best second baseman is niether of these two and probably toiling away in the minors somewhere.
That said, I will leave you all to draw your own conclusions on Brad Emaus. But from what I’ve discovered he is hardly worth the fuss.
If Emaus does end up back in Toronto, the team that originally gave up on him and knew him best, I wouldn’t shed any tears if I were you.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 42 | 30 | .583 | - |
| Phillies | 35 | 37 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Nationals | 34 | 36 | .486 | 7.0 |
| Mets | 27 | 40 | .403 | 12.5 |
| Marlins | 22 | 48 | .314 | 19.0 |
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“In the end, the most productive player should get the most playing time. I will leave that decision to what Terry Collins determines is the best course of action.”
Bingo!
We had Brad, but he was bad. Now we got Justin, he’ll sure be bustin’.
Looks like TedQuarters and you Joe D felt that the FanGraphs post is not recognizing Murphy.
http://www.tedquarters.net/2011/04/19/are-the-mets-giving-up-on-emaus-too-soon/
Give Emaus 100 more ABs. Murphy’s rookie year, he had 131 ABs with a .313 average and a total of 4 errors. If Emaus can’t make those numbers, well then lets send back to Canada and give Murphy his starting second base job.
Very excellent research for this and the staistical evidence builds more of a case against Emaus than a case for him. I too was drawn in by the allure of his approach at the plate, but in the end the production still has to be there and clearly it’s not.
I wouldn’t lose any sleep either but I would first explore what limited prospect we have in an area of surplus that might fill an area of need in Toronto’s farm and simply make a trade, then we can ship him down.
Emaus never looked to me like a guy attempting to seize a golden opportunity. Murphy has a few times. Not that I think Murphy is a long term answer either but he would help support a trade of Wright if it came to that and can hold 2B to some extent until we can find a real player.
Opening up a useable roster spot wouldn’t kill us either as Acosta would provide much more than Emaus in a major area of need.
“And while that may or may not be true, isn’t what manager Terry Collins sees with his own eyes more important than what the numbers say?”
Actually, no. The Majors are all about production. What is the guy doing. Numbers rule at that.
Now, if Emaus continues to not produce, Alderson will be forced to figure out what to do with him. this is where Collins’ opinion becomes important. Why does he think Emaus isn’t producing. Does he think some time in Buffalo will help or is Emaus simply not a Major League talent.
Other than that, I agree with you. Maybe promote Turner to paltoon with Murphy.
The problem with ADVANCED Metrics is the problem of statistical bias and weighting.
If you favor walks over BA then your Metric will reflect that and the bias gets lost in the result.
The bias is hidden in the different methods which is why there are three different ways and theories on calculating WAR and it’s variants.
Tango Tiger is probably the worst offender in this category. He LOVES the walk and OBP.
A guy with a higher OBP will always look AS good as a guy who hits in his metrics because he weights the walks and lesser acts of OB almost as much as the 2B, 3B and HR.
He uses the Linear Weights which is a fancy way of just weighting based on what is more commonly ocurring as opposed to actual VALUE of the act.
This is why Murphy was not favored by many Metricians who subscribe to the OBP centric approach (Guys like Ricciardi and DePo) but when the reality hits you find that the better hitter does better because he is actually CAUSING the good while the OBP guy is waiting for the pitcher to give him something!
“The problem with ADVANCED Metrics is the problem of statistical bias and weighting.”
You do understand the whole diea behind the advanced metrics movement is that you have to actually prove what you are claiming, right?
“If you favor walks over BA then your Metric will reflect that and the bias gets lost in the result.”
How do you favor walks over batting average? A walk is an event and batting average is a heavily flawed metric.
“The bias is hidden in the different methods which is why there are three different ways and theories on calculating WAR and it’s variants.”
You mean its hidden in all that verifiable data.
“Tango Tiger is probably the worst offender in this category. He LOVES the walk and OBP.
A guy with a higher OBP will always look AS good as a guy who hits in his metrics because he weights the walks and lesser acts of OB almost as much as the 2B, 3B and HR.
He uses the Linear Weights which is a fancy way of just weighting based on what is more commonly ocurring as opposed to actual VALUE of the act.”
Its actually a combination. What value the event has factored in with how common it is.
0.72xNIBB + 0.75xHBP + 0.90x1B + 0.92xRBOE + 1.24x2B + 1.56x3B + 1.95xHR
This is a lot better than Batting Average, which declares a single and a home run are identical.
You do understand the RESULT and the metrics themselves were design to support a CLAIM not the other way around. The CLAIM part is used to define what data is used in the metric and weighted based on your belief of importance and weight for each variable!
Such as the one about OBP driving RS when it is actually the proccess of RS that drives the OBP since OBP is a requirement of RS where OBP does not require or induce an RS without some outside influence.
The claim says HIGH OBP is the CAUSE of High RS when in fact HIGH RS is the cause of HIGH OBP in the case of a team like the Yankees who score lots of runs and rackup OBP in the proccess. If you score a lot of runs then you are also going to have a high OBP but of you have a high OBP it does not always mean you scored a lot of runs, just that you COULD have if you did what the other high RS teams did when you had the opportunities. Only where Two teams score the same percentage of OBP will one with higher OBP actually score more runs. But if one scores 20% of their OB and the other scores 40% the 20% team would need TWICE the OBP to score the same amount of runs as the 40% RS team did!
For another example look at is the WAR metric.
If it was an actual SCIENCE then there would be a standard model for it. There are three. Each version weights and counts different methods and each comes up with a different result.
It’s not a proof because it doesn’t actually PROVE anything!
It’s just a math equation built to support a particular point of view!
As for how do you favor walks over BA?
Well thats simple. Use only OBP and ignore BA!
OBP includes walks and HBP as things a batter does well and does not consider how much of that OB is actually due to his own personal skill. A guy who hits .300 with a .350 OBP is less vulnerable than a guy who hits .200 and has a .400 OBP.
Because one doesn’t rely on the Pitcher missing the plate to succeed!
The guy with the high OBP low BA can be defeated merely by throwing him strikes!
Can’t walk that means you have to HIT the ball and at a .200 BA you will get one less OB per 10 PA than the guy who hits .300 and sees the same pitches!
And if you look at Tango’s weighting system for things like WAR you will see that a Walk is weighted MORE than an actual hit! A double is not twice as good as a single or walk and Triple does not even equal TWICE the accomplishment that a single or walk does and a HR is just a shade under twice the accomplisment of said walk and single.
So you can achieve the same WAR as a big run producer merely by walking more!
Why does he weight WAR this way? Because he CLAIMS OB is the most important thing and his weights reflect that bias.
He uses linear weights based on OCURRANCE so because a HR is rare and a single is common and he simply weights based on the LIKIHOOD one thing will happen his weights are more about probablitlity than an actuall assesment of who does the most work and contributes the most on an individual basis!
Which is what the METRICS are supposed to be judging!
If the Metrics they are creating is only to suggest the likelihood of one event then all they are really good for is betting on who will make the first hit in a game or who is more likely to do one thing over another but it is useless as a barometer of which player is better than the other! Which one contributes MORE than the other.
You ask and you shall receive Joe D.
Brad Emaus is out. Justin Turner will replace him.
http://twitter.com/#!/AdamRubinESPN/status/60392287766712321
Not to Toronto yet, but Buffalo works for me.
Welcome to The SHOW, JT!
So Joe D., What does this Metric stuff say about Ishiro, Jeter, Pujols and other slow starters for this year.
You are comparing a rookie with no track record to Pujols and Ichiro? Wow!
Only by this year. That is my point. He has no track record and the others do. Rookies might take a little longer to get established and settle down and are not given the time as the above are obviuosly going to get.
He might not hit well all year, we don not know. But after 37 at bats, way to early to give up on him.
Guess I’m wrong. Lets go Justin.
All I’m gonna say is that they better not just hand him back to Toronto. Work out a trade to put him in Buffalo.
And the beat goes on. Another offseason signing bites the dust. Great job Sandman!
This is from Adam Rubin: @AdamRubinESPN Take this for what it’s worth — just outside speculation — but an exec from a third team places odds Mets trade for Emaus at <25%
Im glad at the way this turned out. Good luck Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy. Everythong os now as it should be at 2B based on our situation.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes the Brad Emaus era. We thank you for your attention.
I’m a little bummed they cut Emaus so soon. They didn’t give him a fair shot, and what I mean by that is, either draft him and stick with him or don’t draft him at all. The very nature of a Rule 5 pick doesn’t lend itself to an immediate impact. If Sandy thought he was going to draft a minor leaguer who wasn’t protected by his former team and that guy was going to contribute immediately, then Sandy made a big mistake. I think Dan Uggla is the only one that made a decisve impact his first year. It has nothing to do with “philosophy” or “sabermetrics” or anything like that. It’s just a silly idea to draft a rule 5 guy and cut him after 40-odd PAs. What did anyone expect?
Event the best Rule 5 picks struggled their first year (Clemente: .255/.284/.382, Johan: 6.49 ERA, 1.814 WHIP, Darrell Evans: .231/.250/.231, Jose Bautista: .205/.263/.239)
I wasn’t always a big fan of Emaus, but just as stupid as it is to count on a rule 5 pick, it’s just as stupid to cut him almost immediately. If Sandy can work something out and keep his right, that would be a win, but if that was the end result, the Mets and Jays should have just worked out a trade in the off season for him.
Murphy and Emaus — “… from what I’ve seen thus far, there is very little separation between the two defensively – a fact even Terry Collins alluded to.” This is also what my eyes have seen.
Despite some catcalls, Murphy has played very well at 2B. He’s made some great plays and displayed tremendous range going to both his left and to his right, up the middle.
There will inevitably be references to Ruben Tejada. Here are snippets posted from the past couple of days:
“After the first three games, Tejada has cooled, as reflected by his 5 for 23 (AVG .217). In total this season, Ruben hit a triple in his first game but hasn’t got any other extra base. He is an offensive deficit. “
“Let’s put the Ruben Tejada hitting and fielding skills into perspective. We know right now that Tejada is a weak hitter. He may develop into a serviceable hitter but he’s nowhere near that right now.”
“What’s not known widely is that Tejada is also weak fielder. This season Tejada has been shaky in the field for the Bisons. He has five errors in ten games at SS. He’s had 50 chances, and is fielding .900 — no doubt he’ll improve but this is a bit of a surprise.”
“For his minor league career, encompassing five seasons at SS and three seasons at 2B, Tejada’s Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average is 3 at SS, but -2 at 2B. During the same time, Tejada has a .954 fielding percentage at SS. At 2B, his fielding percentage is .937. These numbers are well below those of top and even mediocre major leaguers. In the majors, average percentages at SS are around .975 and in the .980′s at 2B.”
“Tejada is a poor to mediocre middle infielder. In fact, Chase Utley, a guy who is viewed by many Mets fans as a inferior second baseman, has numbers way, way better than Tejada.“
“In 2010, Tejada played 50 games at 2B. How well did he play compared to all major league second basemen? Of the 91 players who played at least ten games at 2B, Tejada’s fielding percentage of .972 placed him tied at Number 77 with one other guy. Only 13 of the 91 players had a poorer fielding average.”
uh-oh, don’t let Bayonne see all that, he’ll have a heart attack.
I’ve been saying all along Tejada is a terrible player and completely overrated defensively. he is just not that good. he shouldn’t even be in AAA let alone playing second base for the Mets. Hasn’t shown he can make the routine plays at a reasonable rate at any level he’s played at so far. And hitting wise you might as well have Terry Collins up at the plate.
Hey wait a second Des!
This is what you wrote –
“There will inevitably be references to Ruben Tejada. Here are snippets posted from the past couple of days:”
And then all the snippets you listed in quotations – WHERE YOUR OWN QUOTES!!! They were your own quotes from this article on April 16th!!
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/04/realizing-its-time-to-rebuild.html
YOU QUOTED YOURSELF!! I thought I was reading quotes from some periodicals!
That’s like me saying “well there are some quotes from the other day that back up my claims…THEN I GO AND COPY AND PASTE MY OWN QUOTES FROM ANOTHER POST!!!
That’s what you just did!!!
Des has struck again!
Bayonne, calm down and get a grip. You’re hyperventilating and making stupid assertions. There have been a number of article written recently about the problems of the Mets and some of the articles have concerned 2B. The first article relevant to our discussion was a blog by Jessep. It was titled,”Realizing It’s Time To Rebuild.” There have been 97 comments made, including eight by me. I did a lot of research with Google and also directly in MLB and MiLB. I reprinted a lot of facts and made none of the facts up. It’s all 100% factual.
My first post was in response to a statement you made with an innuendo to Tejada:
Des says:
April 17, 2011 at 2:02 pm
“The very first thing I would do, right now, is trash this 2B experiment with Murphy and Eamus and restore some order to the infield and give Jose someone familiar to work with.”
Bayonne’s ‘someone familiar to work with’ is up in Buffalo. His name is Ruben Tejada and he is now 1 for 9 (AVG .111) in the his three games, after getting a quick start. After the first three games, Tejada has cooled, as reflected by his 5 for 23 (AVG .217). In total this season, Ruben hit a triple in his first game but hasn’t got any other extra base. He is an offensive deficit.
Let’s leave the managing to the pros. We don’t need another Emaus at the plate in Queens.
My second post, written in reponse to a bizarre accusation by you:
Des says:
April 17, 2011 at 4:59 pm
What’s this got to do with being happy? It’s about performance, which seems to make you annoyed. Besides you make your opinion equivalent to fact. It’s not. You’re just another point of view.
My third post:
Des says:
April 18, 2011 at 9:50 am
Let’s put the Ruben Tejada hitting and fielding skills into perspective. We know right now that Tejada is a weak hitter. He may develop into a serviceable hitter but he’s nowhere near that right now.
What’s not known widely is that Tejada is also weak fielder. This season Tejada has been shaky in the field for the Bisons. He has five errors in ten games at SS. He’s had 50 chances, and is fielding .900 — no doubt he’ll improve but this is a bit of a surprise.
For his minor league career, encompassing five seasons at SS and three seasons at 2B, Tejada’s Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average is 3 at SS, but -2 at 2B. During the same time, Tejada has a .954 fielding percentage at SS. At 2B, his fielding percentage is .937. These numbers are well below those of top and even mediocre major leaguers. In the majors, average percentages at SS are around .975 and in the .980′s at 2B.
My fourth post:
Des says:
April 18, 2011 at 12:25 pm
Because of the foghorn blasting of cliches about Tejada which turn out to be not supported by facts, I did a little research. My conclusion:
Tejada is a poor to mediocre middle infielder. In fact, Chase Utley, a guy who is viewed by many Mets fans as a inferior second baseman, has numbers way, way better than Tejada.
But he can hit …. LOL
My fifth post:
Des says:
April 18, 2011 at 5:13 pm
Here’s more evidence of Ruben Tejada’s mediocrity as a second baseman in the major leagues.
In 2010, Tejada played 50 games at 2B. How well did he play compared to all major league second basemen? Of the 91 players who played at least ten games at 2B, Tejada’s fielding percentage of .972 placed him tied at Number 77 with one other guy. Only 13 of the 91 players had a poorer fielding average.
There were likely many reasons Tejada was sent to Buffalo. Honing his skills at SS in case Jose Reyes doesn’t return for the 2012 season was one of them. But improving his play on the field was no doubt also important.
My sixth post, in response to a comment by t agee:
Des says:
April 17, 2011 at 6:51 pm
tag, I personally like the kid but facts are facts. Whether he’s another Dal Maxville or someone who grows into an offensive role is why he needs more MiLB time. As the old saying goes, the proof is in the pudding.
My seventh post, also in response to another t agee post:
Des says:
April 17, 2011 at 8:54 pm
Tag, I’m going to follow him a bit closer with my MiLB video account. Some of the AAA locations don’t give you much of a picture, but others give you a good product.
One thing is certain, despite bulking up, Tejada is not a power hitter. If he can make contact, hit some line drives, and get some doubles, he might be a serviceable player.
My eighth post, responding to t agee’s remark about Tejada possibly bulking up and wondering if he was getting slower:
Des says:
April 17, 2011 at 10:39 pm
tag,
The short answer is I don’t know yet. It’s too early to tell.
The International League season is just a bit more than a week old. The Bisons home games have good TV coverage but it was cold as hell up in Buffalo for the two late afternoon games I saw. No conclusions from there except that despite the announced attendance, it looked like there were only a few hundred fans in the seats.
The road game I wanted to see involved the Bisons at Scranton/WB. The single camera there was awful. It was up behind home plate and so distant that the infield and almost all the outfield was visible in the shot. I turned it off because there were no close-ups in the fifteen minutes or so that I watched.
The last couple of days I hung with the Mets on MLB.
In the eight posts I made on April 17 and April 18, a lot of ground was covered, including some brought up to me by t agee and Donal. Let’s get to the heart of the issue.
1) When I posted in Joe D’s article, I could cross-post everything I said in Jessep’s article, with the intervening comments by t agee and others. This would have taken a large amount of space and would have been wasteful.
2) I could reference everything I said, culling out the irrelevant stuff and publishing just the material I felt was relevant. I did this.
3) I could use quotes for the Step 2 material or I could disregard the need for quotes. I chose quotes to express that it was the same exact material I had posted in the original Jessep article. No facts were ever made up. All the material came from MLB, MiLB and other reputable sources.
In conclusion, Bayonne you’re once again making ridiculous claims and implying that something unsavory was being perpetrated. Everything was on the up and up. You’re wrong but I’m well aware of just how off base are some of the charges you have made in the past. They continue to exist only your mind. I don’t expect an apology from you. You’re working apparently to your capacity. But again, try to get a grip.
For whatever reason you believe they liked Emaus, it was clear why he failed.
I touched on it two days ago when I posted his current splits.
He was a passive batter!
When ahead in the count he had one hit and 4 walks. a .417 OBP and a .125 BA in 12 PA
When behind in the count he had 3 hits and no walks. .176 BA and .222 OBP in 17 PA
That is precisely what I said would happen to a guy with a high OBP and low BA.
Throw him strikes and he will hit to his Batting average and NOT walk. The OBP will drop like a stone!
And since the guy has a poor BA when ahead in the count he will look for the walk not the pitch to hit even when he gets it! Hence the 3 Ks when he was ahead in the count and took what he thought was a ball but was called a strike.
once again geniusalderson does the moonwalk with a player he wanted.our sage of roosevelt avenue looks like the same fool who didn’t know the bash brothers were juicing up.the scary thing is that this scad geniusalderson is gonna decide whether reyes stays or goes.or he will act like he is making that decision.so to u brad emouse i bid a fond goodby for now but keep this in mind the fickle genius who wanted u then cut u …might just want u again before easter!