22
2011
Getting the Wright Return
An article by 
As time ticks away, and the Mets continue to lose games to inferior franchises, I get closer and closer to the thought that David Wright has to be made publically available for the good of the franchise.
It’s not a dislike for Wright, or a disgust for the Mets, the Wilpon’s etc. It has nothing to do with any of that. I’m not a Wright hater, I enjoy and appreciate him for everything he has done and has tried to do for the Mets.
What it is about is value, and the future of the franchise. We saw the Dodgers get taken over by MLB yesterday, and you hope that this never happens to the Mets. It’s an embarrassment that the Dodgers are in this position, and it would be more of a joke if it ever becomes the Mets.
Since 2004, when the Mets traded Wiggington, most Mets fans grew very fond of David Wright, and rightfully so. He’s a great talent, from all accounts he is great to the fans both young and old, and he’s been the face of the franchise since 2005.
In some ways, I feel the Mets owe it to Wright to trade him somewhere, where he can get another legitimate shot prior to his contract running out in 2012 (or 2013 with the club option.)
There’s going to be talks all season about Reyes, K-Rod, Bay, Beltran. If we’re talking about dealing those players away for youth, and a chance to quickly rebuild within 2-3 years, then the Mets have to consider the fact that David Wright can return the most value which would speed up the rebuilding process.
The Mets trade-able pieces in terms of value and other teams’ likely willingness to deal in my view are Wright-Bay-Reyes-Pelfrey-Beltran-KRod. I think people around the league still think Bay is a good player and just needs to get out of New York. Reyes being a free agent hurts, but he still could be a huge lift for teams. Pelfrey could be a quality middle of the rotation guy for teams right now, Beltran they’d be lucky to get 1 good prospect for, and K-Rod punches people in the head. (I don’t think they’d deal Pelfrey this year. Note — Santana is added to this list if he comes back.)
What is the point in keeping David Wright on board if every other veteran could be dealt? One could argue ticket sales, but I have to be honest. Fans would at least understand it if the Mets totally revamped the roster and were committed to turning it around in 2-3 years. Rather than keeping the most valuable trade bait they have, in order to sell tickets that nobody will buy anyway. If the Mets were to trade Reyes and Beltran, what are they left with on the field? A last place team with David Wright and Ike Davis? What is the point?
Consider that every day you do not trade Wright, his value drops. Look at all of the “experts”, when they talk about what the Mets could possibly get for Reyes. Why has Reyes’ value dropped? Because of his age, durability, but most of all, his contract status and likely demands.
A team acquiring Wright, doesn’t have to worry about signing him to a long-term deal until after the 2013 season. Therefore, they would be more apt to give a better handful of prospects for the 3B than a team would for a guy who’s a rent-a-player.
Wright will be 29 years old before Opening Day in 2012. Assuming his club option is picked up, he’ll be a 30 year old 3B, likely wanting a 4-5 year deal. What good does it do the Mets to sign him to a long-term deal after 2013? If they were to trade guys like Reyes, the Mets won’t have a shot in 2013 so how could they justify signing Wright to a long-term deal?
If you look at Wright’s numbers objectively, there is almost nothing about him since 2008 that warrants a huge contract. What good is an underperforming 3B over the age of 30 going to do for this Mets franchise?
Realistically, Wright’s numbers will likely never get to the 2006-2008 standards if he continues to play for the Mets. They will only get worse with age, because in the post-steroid era, players don’t play like 27 year olds when they are 33.
Sure, if the Mets won a World Series in 2006, things would be different. We’d look at Wright as our Jeter, but that didn’t happen. Instead we have a good third baseman, who never hit his true potential. There are going to be a ton of Wright fans who say Wright is great, not just good.
If that is the case, we’d already be projecting a Hall of Fame induction for him. If you’re not “projected”, to be a Hall of Famer by the time you are 28, 29 years old, you likely are a good player who never got over the hump. There’s nothing wrong with being a good player, we just needed him to be great, and it didn’t happen. We have to accept that, and move on.
If David Wright were to play at his current pace until he was 37 years old, he’d be on pace for less than 2,800 hits for his career. He would just barely crack 400 HRs, which if he’s a Met for his entire career, you know that is not happening. So, calling him a “great” player is just shy of the mark in my view.
In the winter of 2002, the St. Louis Cardinals paid 28 year old Scott Rolen $90 million for 8 years. By the time Rolen was 33, in 2008, the Cardinals needed to shed that contract, so they dumped him to Toronto, who then dumped him to Cincinnati. That turned out to be a bad contract by St. Louis, and Rolen won a World Series with them during it!
If Rolen’s deal was a bad one, what will Wright’s be? At 28 years old, Rolen was a better player than Wright is today.
That’s not a knock on Wright, that’s just a fact. Wright has health over Rolen, but you could swap their offensive numbers out with both sides being happy, however defense isn’t even debatable.
Again, if you look objectively, tell me a positive reason to keep David Wright on this team past his 30th birthday considering how his hitting has dropped off in the past 2 years?
If you can’t think of one in terms of his performance, then now is the best time to start thinking about trading him. The longer the Mets wait, the less likely they are to get players who are closer to ready.
Today, many teams around the league likely look at Wright and would accept him with open arms. If they have a legitimate team leader, or a superstar, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t. Wright is better suited to be the #2 guy, where there is a strong team leader.
In 2009, the only Major League teams who had their best player (and that player is still on their 2011 team) hit for a lower OPS than David Wright were Baltimore, Oakland, Atlanta, Cubs, Pittsburgh, Houston, San Diego.
In 2010, using the same metric, only Oakland, Seattle, Florida, Atlanta, Cubs, Pittsburgh, Houston, and San Diego qualified.
If you’re going to pay a player to be the best on your team and he isn’t better than 75% of the other team’s best player, then something is not right. It’s not to say he’s not a good player, it’s just that his greatest value to the franchise is through the trade market, not to be our best player.
If Wright is the best guy in your lineup, you’re in trouble. He’s not that type of hitter. Consider this:
Teams like the Angels with Torii Hunter; the White Sox with Konerko and Dunn; the Rockies with Tulo and CarGo; and the Twins with Mauer and Morneau.
All would be amazing places for Wright to land and would all have some serious young players that could be worked out if the two sides could come together. Wright’s career would be rejuvenated in any of those places, and the Mets could net some legitimate youth to get the franchise turned in the right direction.
I could be wrong, but outside of ticket sales, can somebody provide a reason why having a 29, 30+ year old Wright would be good for the Mets?
And if you can’t, can somebody tell why it’d be better to wait until next year or the year after to have this conversation?
Think about where the franchise is inevitably headed. If we see the giant iceberg ahead and have time to turn the wheel, why would we hit the gas and go straight toward it?
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
My time with MMO began in July of 2009 when I wrote a Fan Post defending Omar Minaya (before it was cool to do that.) I grew up a Mets fan with the mid 1980's teams. My favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, I like to think I meet in the middle. I believe thinking of new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the same way has not produced results. However, I think over-thinking certain situations can get you into trouble. I'm excited for the new regime, because I believe they have pieces in place to focus on several aspects of the Mets organization. I've waited this long for a World Series, waiting a few more years for another chance isn't going to kill me.
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Jessep, thank you for writing what I have been trying to find the cojones to say for awhile. You have opened yourself to a line of fire though, but I applaud you for that
. In fact, I tried to reason with some folks the other day in a forum who told me they hoped David Wright would go to to the Phillies to win a championship and shove it in our faces (you know, because they wouldn’t win one without him or someone like him anyway). Or the other one where “people still wouldn’t come to the park” like they are now anyway with these guys.
The best one though is when people say “We haven’t won anything with this guy, or that guy, or the other guy” yet when anyone suggests looking for value for the sacred cows of Wright and/or Reyes, all of a sudden it’s like “ANYONE BUT THEM!” I get the idea of emotional attachment, trust me, I will probably cry in front of my TV when/if that ever happens like my dad did during the Midnight Massacre — I mean, I am willing as much as the next person to see what the best is for the team. And I do not envy Sandy Alderson or the rest of his dream team for having to fix up the mess in Flushing. The “core” is shellshocked and right now, the only one with value is Wright. It’s not an unfair question to ask.
Coooooop!
You guys are crazy Wright and Mets haters. I’m convinced of that.
Well reasoned and written Jessep. I cannot disagree with your conclusion at all. I thin he should opened up for discussion and either sent on for a great package or continue to held out there until he becomes a free agent. I wouldn’t jump on the first offer but I would listen to all of them and I certainly wouldn’t resign him.
This July he’ll have a year and a half left, just like Texeira did. While not exactly the same player as Tex he’s not that far away either. Texeira brought back Feliz, Saltamochia and Andrus. That’s a good haul especially when your giving away a guy you’ve already extracted 75% of his ML production from and can then use the money saved to beef up your team elsewhere (maybe in the Latin America or the draft) and add other pieces too.
I agree, we should listen but proceed carefully.
great point on Tex’s value. that is exactly my line of thinking.
Couldn’t agree more. I’d hate to lose him, but if the Mets can get good young prospects in return, I think they have to seriously consider it. This team is at least 3-4 years away from being a contender – the entire pitching staff has to be rebuilt – at that point DWright will be on the wrong side of 30. And, as Jessep notes, it’s not like fans will flock to CitiField to see Wright in the middle of a crappy line-up. Blow it up, everyone’s available (although I’d hang onto Ike – he’s cost-controlled – and Beato).
Except, at this point, I’m not sure what Wright can bring back in a trade.
I’d hang onto Ike as well. No reason to deal him right now
without question your best post ever. well done.
thanks will
“… but outside of ticket sales, can somebody provide a reason why having a 29, 30+ year old Wright would be good for the Mets?”
After reading many posts on MMO about the importance of money to the Mets, why wouldn’t ticket sales be an important consideration is its own right? We, or at least some of us, laughed through our keyboards at how the Mets benefited by not having the Feliciano contract. Yup we saved the Wilpons money! Maybe even better, it came at the expense of the Yankees. Next, I read many posts about how to keep Frankie R. from reaching the vesting point.
Money means a lot to the Mets and their fans and ticket sales are part of it. Wright means a lot to the franchise and part of it is his community value and financial value to the business community, something that was not important in the Scott Rolen decisions. Comparing Wright and Rolen is akin to comparing apples and oranges.
Would keeping David Wright really help ticket sales? If the team is struggling, fans aren’t showing up anyway.
Are you asking, “How low can we go?”
We really don’t want to know, do we?
Des,
But why keep a player who’s greatest value to the franchise is buying tickets and not winning baseball games?
If you want to see likeable players, go watch minor league baseball. I understand you like Wright, you should like Wright.
But having him play for a potential 90 loss team that trades away veterans is pointless. All it does is half-heartedly start a rebuilding project.
If you want the Mets to rebuild quickly, they need to give something up with great value. Jose Reyes isn’t going to net the Mets a bunch of can’t miss prospects.
Wright may not even do that, but there’s a better chance Wright does than anybody else on the Mets.
Hi Jessep. Ever since the Dodgers left Brooklyn for greener pastures about 53 years ago, fan involvement has changed. There is less loyalty to the team and less loyalty to the players. The chain reaction which resulted in the movement of numerous baseball franchises and also the free agency decision, despite its liberation of the players, did that.
Getting rid of Wright and Reyes further destroys the fabric bonding the Mets to the Big Apple community. Do we want the kinds of fans who don’t distinguish between going to a baseball game and going to a local movie? To these fans, its just a night out. As I implied, comparing David Wright and Scott Rolen is like minimizing the difference between oil and water. Wright (and Reyes) have community value. Rolen was a less popular player who had little or none.
I’m glad you raised the question about Wright. I just want to share my 20,000 feet view.
Des: Thanks for the responses!
I understand that Wright & Reyes are beloved. However, fans like winning more…. and logically, keeping them both here as the Mets try to find their way in the future is not a smart baseball move. You cannot let the fans dictate how you handle your roster.
Wright & Reyes do not perform at a level that makes it acceptable to have them in the mid to late 30′s making 17-20 million dollars. Having them do-so hurts the future of this franchise.
Do you agree that if the Mets traded Wright they should be able to net some very good prospects?
If the idea is to shed the franchise of all of these contracts and to start over in the eye of Sandy (for better or worse he’s your teams GM) then you have to go all or nothing. You can’t half heartedly rebuild the franchise. And dealing Wright would make rebuilding the franchise in terms of talent, much easier.
The fans will be there when the games start being won.
I am as big a Wright fanboy as anyone, but I’ve come to the same conclusion myself and agree with your logic.
All well and good, but does the organization have the ability, the minds to identify talent as and when they get to pick young players, either in a trade or the draft? The big issue remains the Wilpons. Once they are gone, everything can and will change; not before
amen brother
For the most part, it didn’t under Omar. He gave some of the duties to Tony Bernazard and we all know about Tony’s bottom line contributions to the farms, the front office, and the clubhouse.
That Popster is the huge unknown and the one thing that could lift us up or sink us for another decade. We are in an extremely perilous position right now, one slip and…..
I think Wright should be the first to go. His rising strikeout rate is unacceptable and he has shown an inability to become the leader he was looking for. I wish him the best and he will be successful with another team not the Mets. I think we should sign Reyes because we can sign a shorter term deal, sign Beltran for 1-2 year contract, and trade away everything else especially Pelfrey who we should have dealt last year.
I am also hoping that MLB can push the Wilpon’s out of baseball. I love the Mets but I cant cheer for them with this family as owners of my team. It’s embarrassing.
Rich,
Thanks for the response!
I don’t see why Jose Reyes at 27, 28 years old would sign a short term deal. This is his big payday. In 2007, he accepted a hometown discount out of arbitration because he was on a team that he came up with and they were a few outs away from the World Series.
Fast forward 5 years, life is different for Reyes both on the field and at home. I am sure he enjoys New York, but there’s no reason for him to give a hometown discount to a team that is likely a non-factor for half the contract when he could sign somewhere else for more $ and more chances to win.
Wonderful post!
Important Things To Consider
-Most “rebuilding phases” fail.
-Most prospects never reach their potential.
-There is nobody that can step in and give anywhere near that type of production.
-2006 was a long time ago, we only have three players left from that team.
-He has not produced as much as 2008 – but obviously Citi Field is a big reason for that.
-Also, he hasn’t had much protection in the lineup over the past few years, due to injuries, and lack of performance of the hitters below him.
-He may not be a leader, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a roll.
-The future of the franchise financially has little to do with paying David Wright or any other player too much money. Ownership has mismanaged money & investments, and mismanaged this team in general.
-It is hard to find a player like David Wright – he is solid defensively, has some speed, is a good hitter, fan friendly, and plays everyday.
-If this is a question of value, then I believe right now he is being undervalued because of the teams poor performance.
Thank you for talking sense. The guy will end his career a met because he wants it that way. A little help and David would go back to being a monster…not to mention the amount of pressure taken off this guy. Also I truely believe in my heart that he believes in his heart that this team can be a winner in the near future. Not sure one other on the team feels that way.
I don’t understand that sorry. The amount of pressure taken off this guy? He has about as many offensive tools around him as anybody could have and he has tailed off the last 2.5 years. He’s a good player, not a great player and never will be a great player.
If you hang onto a good player simply because you like him, and he’s your best player, then you’ll be watching him for 10 years play for a losing team.
So Trade him for the sake of trading him? What did the twins get for Johan when he was their best player?
Also, He is the face of the team… that amounts to so much more pressure than an everyday Joe. And you can not be serious with as many offensive tools around him as anybody? Exactly Who? The reason you see Bud Norris and Wandy Rodrigez mowing down hitters in this line up is because they fear absolutely no one! Guy jumps into an 0 for 20 slump and we automatically forget he hit over .280 with 30hr’s and over 100 rbi’s last season…Again with absolutely no protection. And these numbers are pretty on course with his seasons a few years back…I admit not as good but certainly not the “tailing off” that you are indicating.
And just curious… What type of return does a “good player” that is currently tailing off bring in return? Enough to really speed up an entire rebuilding process?
Citi Field has killed Wright. He has hit at least 3 deep drives to right that would be home runs in more than a few parks this yr. He’s not the same player there and unless they move the fences in big time he never will be.
Fences, Schmecnhes. Wheel ‘em & deal ‘em. Not going to win a World Series with no pitching. Even with a 13-5 record. The Mets do not have an ace nor a solid 1-2 punch in the rotation. Nor ANY clutch players whatsoever. Start the feelers for the Fire Sale ASAP.
Jessup you are very correct that we should keep an open mind regarding moves and trades for any player.
And it is likely we will make SOME move at the deadline with a Veteran if the FO deems it neccesary to start that rebuilding proccess. Doesn’t matter which Veteran goes at this point, we could lose just one and we would still be losing a big part of our lineup that would not easily be replaced.
Beltran makes the most sense but his Bat is very important to guys like Wright, Bay and Davis. A switch hitting power hitter (like Beltran) is a very hard commodity to come by!
In fact all four are very important to the performance of each other.
If you trade Wright well you will probably be losing two big bats as Beltran will walk or not resign after the season. Result=Rebuild.
The reason why Wright isn’t discussed as much in regards to trades is because we are already scheduled to lose two core players at the end of the season.
And if the plan is to let them both go then what you propose should very much be considered.
Do you really build a team around Wright, Bay and Davis?
Davis I can understand but he too will be wasted in his prime as we try and find guys to play around him from the prospects we will get for making those trades. If your going to go that route then it makes a ton of sense to trade them all, be the pirates and wait until enough of those returned prospects pay off and get promoted before we go and look for some more big bats to go with them. And that will take 2-4 years which no Met fan will sit still through!
We should really cool to the idea of trades until we see where we are at the deadline.
If they start playing better the fast track way to go is to resign Reyes, trade Beltran for the prospects (I would look for promising SP in return) you can get and go after starting Pitching in the offseason. Let Davis be the clean up hitter and look for another OF in FA that can protect Bay in the lineup.
If we did that then Kirk, Havens, Mejia and Harvey could be promoted if worthy and we will have a pretty competitive team in a year!
But if we do have a firesale we are talking years of waiting for something good to result and the fans have shown no ability or inclination to wait that long.
They will go back to what they did when Omar took over and start demaning we give huge contracts to players who had a career year in their walk year and we will be right back where we started again.
Another FO change, A final appearance by Wally and a perpetuation of what has always been the story around here when impatience wins out over logic and reason.
Lots of promise, lots of moves but never enough to win anything!
I like David too. And I agree with everything you said. Met fans tend to drastically overvalue their own. Good management has to be cold blooded.