Apr
2
2011

2011 Mets Over/Under, Predictions

In most circles, the Mets are pegged for fourth place in the NL East with roughly 77 victories. Considering their offseason and the issues around the team that seems about right. I’ll throw out a number and you tell me if you’ll take the over/under.

Mets victories: 78

Phillies victories: 98

Mike Pelfrey wins: 16

R.A. Dickey wins: 11

Jon Niese wins: 12

Different Mets pitchers to make a start: 11

Francisco Rodriguez game-ending appearances: 50

Rodriguez saves: 25

Ike Davis homers: 21

Games played by Jason Bay: 110

Bay homers: 19

Times Bay will appear on the DL: 2

Games played by Carlos Beltran assuming no trade: 110

Jose Reyes steals: 55

Reyes games with Mets assuming no trade: 145

David Wright homers: 30

Wright strikeouts: 130

Wright RBI: 107

Angel Pagan average: .280

Pagan stolen bases: 30

Jose Thole average: .275

Date we’ll see Johan Santana: Aug. 9

My picks:

NL East winner: Phillies

NL Central winner: Reds

NL West winner: Giants

NL wild card: Braves

NL champ: Phillies

Mets finish in NL East: fourth

NL MVP: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado

NL Cy Young: Matt Cain, San Francisco

AL East winner: Boston

AL Central winner: Minnesota

AL West winner: Texas

AL wild-card: New York

AL Champ: Boston

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez, Boston

AL Cy Young: CC Sabathia, New York

World Series winner: Boston

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About the Author: John Delcos

I am an active member of the BBWAA and have covered Major League Baseball in several capacities for over 20 years, including ten in New York working the Mets' and Yankees' beat. I covered the Baltimore Orioles for eight years and the Cleveland Indians before that. I currently serve as an editor and senior staff writer for Mets Merized Online. Follow me on Twitter @jdelcos.

12 Comments + Add Comment

  • My picks:
    Mets victories: 72

    Phillies victories: 90

    Mike Pelfrey wins: 13

    R.A. Dickey wins: 15

    Jon Niese wins: 12

    Different Mets pitchers to make a start: 9

    Francisco Rodriguez game-ending appearances: 48

    Rodriguez saves: 27

    Ike Davis homers: 28

    Games played by Jason Bay: 118

    Bay homers: 22

    Times Bay will appear on the DL: 2

    Games played by Carlos Beltran assuming no trade: 110

    Jose Reyes steals: 57

    Reyes games with Mets assuming no trade: 155

    David Wright homers: 31

    Wright strikeouts: 110

    Wright RBI: 102

    Angel Pagan average: .290

    Pagan stolen bases: 30

    Jose Thole average: .280

    Date we’ll see Johan Santana: Aug. 15

  • Okay Mr. Delcos, here’s my over/under based on your picks…make sure you jot this down:

    Mets victories: 78 – I’ll take the over
    Phillies victories: 98 – under
    Mike Pelfrey wins: 16 – under
    R.A. Dickey wins: 11 – over
    Jon Niese wins: 12 – over
    Different Mets pitchers to make a start: 11 – under
    Francisco Rodriguez game-ending appearances: 50 – under
    Rodriguez saves: 25 – over
    Ike Davis homers: 21 -over
    Games played by Jason Bay: 110 – over
    Bay homers: 19 – over
    Times Bay will appear on the DL: 2 – under
    Games played by Carlos Beltran assuming no trade: 110 – over
    Jose Reyes steals: 55 – under
    Reyes games with Mets assuming no trade: 145 – over
    David Wright homers: 30 – under
    Wright strikeouts: 130 – over
    Wright RBI: 107 – under
    Angel Pagan average: .280 – over
    Pagan stolen bases: 30 – under
    Jose Thole average: .275 – over

  • Actually on ‘different Mets pitchers to make starts should be over not under

  • Mets victories: 78 – over (87)

    Phillies victories: 98 – under (92)

    Mike Pelfrey wins: 16 – under

    R.A. Dickey wins: 11 – over

    Jon Niese wins: 12 – over

    Different Mets pitchers to make a start: 11 – under

    Francisco Rodriguez game-ending appearances: 50 – over

    Rodriguez saves: 25 – over

    Ike Davis homers: 21 – under

    Games played by Jason Bay: 110 – under

    Bay homers: 19 – way under

    Times Bay will appear on the DL: 2 – over

    Games played by Carlos Beltran assuming no trade: 110 – over

    Jose Reyes steals: 55 – under

    Reyes games with Mets assuming no trade: 145 – over

    David Wright homers: 30 – under

    Wright strikeouts: 130 – over

    Wright RBI: 107 – under

    Angel Pagan average: .280 – over

    Pagan stolen bases: 30 – over

    Jose Thole average: .275 – over

    Date we’ll see Johan Santana: Aug. 9 – July 15

  • Mets victories: 78 – under (71)
    Phillies victories: 98 – under (94)
    Mike Pelfrey wins: 16 – under (14)
    R.A. Dickey wins: 11 – over (12)
    Jon Niese wins: 12 – over (13)
    Different Mets pitchers to make a start: 11 – under (9)
    Francisco Rodriguez game-ending appearances: 50 – under (47 followed by an MLBPA grievance)
    Rodriguez saves: 25 – over (33)
    Ike Davis homers: 21 – over (24)
    Games played by Jason Bay: 110 – over (131)
    Bay homers: 19 – over (21)
    Times Bay will appear on the DL: 2 – push
    Games played by Carlos Beltran assuming no trade: 110 – under (102)
    Jose Reyes steals: 55 – over (57)
    Reyes games with Mets assuming no trade: 145 – over (153)
    David Wright homers: 30 – under (26)
    Wright strikeouts: 130 – over (149)
    Wright RBI: 107 – under (102)
    Angel Pagan average: .280 – under (.277)
    Pagan stolen bases: 30 – under (28)
    Jose Thole average: .275 – over (.282)
    Date we’ll see Johan Santana: Aug. 9 – over (opening day 2012)

    MVPs – Tulo and Gonzalez
    Cy Youngs – Lincecum and Sabathia

    NL – East – Braves Central – Reds West – Giants WC – Phillies
    AL – East Red Sox Central – White Sox West – A’s WC – Yankees
    W.S. – Boston over SF in 6 games

  • over on the Mets, under on the Phils.

  • Mets victories: 78 – Under (76)

    Phillies victories: 98 – Under

    Mike Pelfrey wins: 16 – Under

    R.A. Dickey wins: 11 – over

    Jon Niese wins: 12 – over

    Different Mets pitchers to make a start: 11 – push

    Francisco Rodriguez game-ending appearances: 50 – over

    Rodriguez saves: 25 – over

    Ike Davis homers: 21 – over

    Games played by Jason Bay: 110 – over

    Bay homers: 19 – over

    Times Bay will appear on the DL: 2 – under

    Games played by Carlos Beltran assuming no trade: 110 – under

    Jose Reyes steals: 55 – over

    Reyes games with Mets assuming no trade: 145

    David Wright homers: 30 – under

    Wright strikeouts: 130 – over

    Wright RBI: 107 – over

    Angel Pagan average: .280 – over

    Pagan stolen bases: 30 – over

    Jose Thole average: .275 – under

    Date we’ll see Johan Santana: Aug. 9 – over

  • Mets victories: 78 (Over
    Phillies victories: 98 (Under)
    Mike Pelfrey wins: 16 (Under)
    R.A. Dickey wins: 11 (Over)
    Jon Niese wins: 12 (Over)
    Different Mets pitchers to make a start: 11 (Push)
    Francisco Rodriguez game-ending appearances: 50 (Push)
    Rodriguez saves: 25 (Over)
    Ike Davis homers: 21 (Over)
    Games played by Jason Bay: 110 (Over)
    Bay homers: 19 (Over)
    Times Bay will appear on the DL: 2 (Push…but I won’t be surprised if it’s Over)
    Games played by Carlos Beltran assuming no trade: 110 (Under)
    Jose Reyes steals: 55 (Over)
    Reyes games with Mets assuming no trade: 145 (Over)
    David Wright homers: 30 (Push)
    Wright strikeouts: 130 (Over)
    Wright RBI: 107 (Over)
    Angel Pagan average: .280 (Over)
    Pagan stolen bases: 30 (Over)
    Jose Thole average: .275 (Over)
    Date we’ll see Johan Santana: Aug. 9 (Over)

  • 11 pitchers starting? what’re you on drugs?

    • You must be the one on drugs chris, or just a casual baseball fan.

      The Mets used 12 starters last season, 11 in 2009, 12 in 2008, 13 in 2007.

      So 11 starters in 2011, under or over? I say over. I’m going with the odds.

      • remember shamsky, chris is a wilpon apologist, who thinks the mets are great and do no wrong ever, that is why 86 was 25 years ago, but dont worry chris will tell you the mets had a great off season and will compete for the playoffs this yr…lol such a homer

    • Chris, all teams go through 10 starters or so every year.

NL East Standings

TeamWLPct.GB
Braves4230.583 -
Phillies3537.4867.0
Nationals3436.4867.0
Mets2740.40312.5
Marlins2248.31419.0

Last updated: 06/19/2013

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