Mar
23
2011

What Can the Mets Expect From Carlos Beltran This Year?

An article by Robert Knapel

With just nine days left until Opening Day, Carlos Beltran has only appeared in one game as a DH and has had only three at-bats. At this point, it is getting very hard to believe that he will start the season anywhere other than the disabled list.

Earlier this week there was news that Beltran participated in limited batting practice, but he rarely swung at any pitches. In addition, he participated in some outfield drills. It has also been reported that when Beltran plays in a minor league game he will have a pinch runner when he gets on base. This means that he is not yet at full speed.

It is becoming clear that Beltran will not be on the Opening Day roster. If the Mets keep him in minor league games during the rest of the spring they can backdate his DL-stint so that he can come back sooner. The question is what can the Mets expect from Beltran once he is able to play?

For the first four years of his contract with the Mets, Beltran put up great numbers. However, since 2009 he has had an injury bug. Over the past two years he played just 145 games. However, he did hit 17 home runs and batted .295 over that span. Could that be what the Mets can expect from Beltran this year? Those numbers certainly don’t justify the $18.5 million that Beltran is owed for this year.

It is possible that Beltran will not play on a daily basis for at least a month. The move to right field should help Beltran stay healthier since he does not need to cover as much ground as he did in center.

Assuming that Beltran stays healthy, it is possible that he plays in as many as 135 games this season. If that does happen, it is reasonable to expect that Beltran could put up a line close to .280/.365/.490. The Mets could also see Beltran hit between 20 and 25 home runs and drive in 80 to 95 runners. Beltran will likely see his stolen base numbers drop to less than 10 in an attempt to keep his knee healthy. This would be the best-case scenario.

A possible worst case scenario would be that for the third year in a row Beltran struggles to remain healthy. He is only able to appear in 70 to 80 games. In this limited playing time Beltran posts a triple slash line of .260/.335/.440. He is only able to hit 8 to ten home runs and he does not drive in more than 45 runners. This is also a plausible outcome for Beltran’s season.

If Beltran is able to stay healthy this year and the Mets struggle then the team could trade him away to a contender and bring back a solid prospect or two that can help them in the future. If the Mets are still in contention, they can hold on to Beltran to help them make a playoff run.

The fact of the matter is that Beltran could be the key to the Mets season. If he is healthy, the Mets could be a playoff team. If not, the Mets could suffer through a long season yet again.

About the Author: Robert Knapel

Robert is from New Jersey. He is currently pursuing Bachelors degrees in both Finance and International Business at Washington University in St. Louis. He has been a Mets fan for as long as he can remember. Robert also serves as an MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

5 Comments + Add Comment

Dennis Ribant March 23, 2011 at 9:26 am

How can you assume anything based on Beltran being healthy? He couldn’t get healthy enough all Winter to survive one trip around the bases. If the guy plays more than Aolu did in his second year, you can call it a baseball miracle.
- t agee March 23, 2011 at 9:54 am
  
  I’m not counting on Carlos staying on the field or being Carlos when he does get on it.
scottydoesn'tknow March 23, 2011 at 10:17 am

Putting aside the previous 2 negative comments, I expect Beltran to do everything in his power to make a positive contribution to this team. Carlos has always been a team first guy, and I know this is not the first time I have written this.

His desire and want should never be in question by Mets fans. His health however, could very well limit his productivity for this season. However, unless his lower leg is dangling from his knee cap by a single thread of tendon, I would expect Beltran to go out there and play with the pain.

The fact that this is a contract year for him, his past reputation suggest that he has been willing to play with pay, for large extents of time, suggest that Beltran will make every effort to be on that field in a productive manner.

If his health and the pain prevents him from being productive, I would expect Beltran to allow some other player to step in and contribute, rather than be selfish and demand to be kept in the lineup despite poor numbers.

He is a class act, and always puts the club and his teammates first. He has had health issues with his knee (no mystery), but atleast he has not let his ego and pride get in the way of the clubs success.

I see Beltran playing a lot this season (obviously not everyday), but I think it will be enough to surprise most of the pessimists out there.
Mr North Jersey March 23, 2011 at 12:30 pm

Trying to predict what to expect from Beltran is just too difficult to do at this time. The man has yet to plat 2 back2back games in the outfield.

I need to see him do that 1st and how his legs respond to even begin trying to guess what to expect from him and even then that would be one huge guess for me.
tlagee March 23, 2011 at 11:12 pm

You Wrote “For the first four years of his contract with the Mets, Beltran put up great numbers.”

Really? The first year of his contract he batted in the .260′s with 16 dingers and 78 RBI – those are not great numbers.

Beltran is a notoriously slow healer. I look for this season to be another Beltran injury drama season – with him showing enough to get a good contract from some other sucker.

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