Mar
30
2011

What Can Lucas Duda Do If He Gets a Shot on Opening Day?

An article by Robert Knapel

As Joe detailed, Jason Bay’s injury could be a concern for the Mets for longer than just the beginning of the season. Rib injuries tend to linger and this could affect Bay all year.

If Bay does start the year on the disabled list then the question because who takes his roster spot and who starts in left field. The roster spot will likely be given to Lucas Duda if the team feels confident that he can start in left. If the team decides to start Scott Hairston, then Duda may remain in the minors.

One of the questions surrounding Duda is what his production level would be if he were to have an extended stay in the majors. Right now, the ZiPS projections for Duda for the 2011 season are a .243/.323/.408 triple-slash line with 16 home runs and 70 RBI. This would certainly be acceptable. If Bay on the disabled list for an extended period of time, then Duda has the potential to earn a spot on the Mets roster for the rest of the year.

This obviously would be dependent on Duda’s production level. If Duda struggles, he will be sent down once Bay returns. If Duda is able to show that he can be an everyday major league player, then the Mets have a decision to make once Bay returns.

A successful campaign by Lucas Duda during the course of Jason Bay’s injury will likely lead to one of three different scenarios playing out. The first scenario would be that the Mets decide to cut Scott Hairston and let Duda be the fourth outfielder. The second scenario is that the Mets could just send Duda back down to the minors so he plays everyday.

The final scenario would only play out if Bay were to be on and off the disabled list for a few months and the Mets are struggling. The Mets could make the decision to move Carlos Beltran to open up a spot in right field for Duda.

With all of the uncertainty surrounding Jason Bay’s injury, Lucas Duda has a great opportunity to prove to the Mets that he should be an everyday player.

About the Author: Robert Knapel

Robert is from New Jersey. He is currently pursuing Bachelors degrees in both Finance and International Business at Washington University in St. Louis. He has been a Mets fan for as long as he can remember. Robert also serves as an MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

9 Comments + Add Comment

Metstheory22 March 30, 2011 at 1:58 pm

I would give the nod to Duda over Hairston if it was a long period of time. I think seeing his end of season last year, Duda should be able to handle it.
XtreemIcon March 30, 2011 at 3:42 pm

I think that ZiPS line is veeeeery conservative. If Duda had a whole season, his slash would probably resemble Bay’s. .260/.350./.480
- t agee March 30, 2011 at 4:02 pm
  
  It’s really not uncommon for a prime age player who doesn’t have a great or long career to post the same or even better numbers in his prime than the older, expensive post prime former All Star will and allows you to replenish your farm because your not giving away your draft choices.
  
  So you get the same or even better production while not being hamstrung from a roster or financial standpoint and being able to draft in the first couple of rounds allows you to keep the thing going rather than crash every half decade.
  
  Better now, and better later. What’s not to like?
  - XtreemIcon March 30, 2011 at 4:43 pm
    
    T Agee, that only works if the younger replacement gets enough ABs to warrant using the option. I don’t want Duda up here for two weeks, even if those two weeks would be better than the two weeks of Hariston or Evans. That would be better now and NOT better later.
    - t agee March 30, 2011 at 6:45 pm
      
      Completely agree X. That’s part of the whole deal. Having a bench capable of covering up for a couple of weeks 3-4 times a year. Otherwise you burn a lot of options and hamstring yourself down the road.
MetsMan86 March 30, 2011 at 3:46 pm

My vote definitely goes to Duda if this injury is going to hamper Bay for a while. Like Rob said, rib injuries are usually a nagging injury the whole or most of the year. Don’t be surprised if Bay sees the 60 day DL, so that his return is him at 100%. Duda does add a little bit more lefty / righty balance in an everyday lineup and brings the power a Hairston/Harris platoon would lack. If Bay got injured a day or two before he did, we would see Evans out there mo doubt.
any March 30, 2011 at 4:33 pm

too bad there isn’t a 4th option.

Trade Bay after he comes off the DL.
- Pete March 30, 2011 at 4:59 pm
  
  There is one more, very remote possibility, but it’s not impossible. Suppose that Bay is disabled, and they give Duda a shot, and he doesn’t hit, and doesn’t seem to be ready yet. There is another, shall we say “dark horse” candidate by the name of Fernando Martinez. He says he is much healthier now than he has been in years, and he could just get off to a blistering start in Buffalo. Could this be the time when the planets line up for FMart?
  - any March 30, 2011 at 6:07 pm
    
    I have him penciled into RF mid-year when Beltran leaves.

NL East Standings

Team	W	L	Pct.	GB
Braves	23	18	.561	-
Nationals	23	19	.548	0.5
Phillies	20	22	.476	3.5
Mets	16	23	.410	6.0
Marlins	11	31	.262	12.5

Last updated: 05/18/2013

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