What Are The Odds Beltran Gets 500 AB Or Young Makes 25 Starts This Season?

An article by posted on March 13, 2011

This is kind of a different type of article from Joel Sherman of the NY Post. He of course being the sports writer who wrote that the Mets should just pack it in this season, spare fans the agony, and just have a fire sale.

Anyway, he spoke to a veteran scout who summed up certain things in percentages, for example he asks what are the percetanges that Chris Young makes 25 starts or Carlos Beltran has 500 at-bats.

Here is some of what Sherman came up with, there’s more if you go and read the full column.

BELTRAN HAS 500 PLATE APPEARANCES (20%)
He has 612 combined the past two years and needed to be at least temporarily shut down after one game as a DH this spring.

JOHAN SANTANA MAKES 10 STARTS (30%)
A Mets official pointed out that the Phillies have problems, too, noting Chase Utley’s knee issues are as concerning as Beltran’s. Indeed. But Philadelphia has four aces to fall back on, and the Mets ace is playing catch from 60 feet. Every Mets person spoken with suggests that we will not see the best of Santana again before 2012. And, remember, shoulders are more concerning than even elbows, so maybe Santana is never going to be Santana again.

YOUNG AND CHRIS CAPUANO COMBINE FOR 50 STARTS (10%)
Like Beltran’s 500 plate appearances rather than a full season of 600-plus, the bar here is 25 starts apiece rather than 30-plus. Padres officials who know Young well admire him as a person, competitor and teammate, but have real concerns if his shoulder can get through a whole campaign. He has made just 36 starts over the past three years. Capuano has made nine. If they were the Nos. 4-5 starters of another club in which you did not have an emotional investment (say, Kansas City) how many starts would you think they would make? Probably nowhere near 50.

THE METS CURRENTLY HAVE A MAJOR LEAGUE SECOND BASEMAN (5%)
It is one thing to give up defense and have Dan Uggla playing second. It is another to do so with Brad Emaus and/or Daniel Murphy. Luis Castillo has lost almost all of his range and he is still far superior to either one.

Agree? Disagree?

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