28
2011
The 2011 Rotation May Not Be As Bad As The Experts Say
An article by 
Skeptics and doom and gloomers aside, the starting rotation for the Mets this coming season may end up surprising even the most hardened of experts. Granted having Johan Santana on the shelf optimistically until June, realistically and probably until 2012, doesn’t warm the blue and orange blood running through a Met fans veins.
However, looking back at 2010, most Met fans will tell you that in spite of the fourth disappointing season in a row, pitching was far from being the root cause. In fact, it was one of the few saving graces we could hold onto.
Mike Pelfrey needs to build upon last season where he seemed to mature both mechanically and emotionally on the mound. Gone or at least lessened were the hapless ad-nauseum renditions of Pelfrey, cap tilted back cradling his crown, licking the tips of his pitching fingers in disgust; staring blankly up and into the crowd searching desperately for answers after yet another self-implosion on the mound. Sure he had his less than stellar moments; perhaps the expectations placed on him were far beyond what his talent could ultimately satisfy. But he endured and at times thrived, especially the first half of 2010.
His first half statistics absolutely should have earned him an All-Star nod as he won 10 of his 15 games before the break. Unfortunately for whatever reason he didn’t and his second half showed signs that his All-Star omission may have tapped into his fragile psyche. Post All-Star break he compiled a record of 5-7 with an ERA of 4.57. It goes without saying Mike Pelfrey’s biggest enemy at times can be Mike Pelfrey. There’s no rest for the weary since Pelfrey, by default, becomes the number one starter in 2011. The key to his success will be his ability to throw strikes especially early in the count while utilizing the natural sink on his fastball and refining his splitter.
Historically he’s now at that age, 27, where most talented pitchers seem to “get it” and evolve. It does seem every year we’re saying, “This is the year Pelfrey has to step it up.” 2011 may be his biggest and most vaunted opportunity. Again.
If someone made a bet with you that R.A. Dickey, a 34 year old journeyman knuckleballer, would become not only one of the best inspirational stories of 2010, but would also become the anchor in the Mets rotation, you probably wouldn’t have taken that offer. Signed by Omar Minaya to a minor league contract and given a spring invite, R.A.’s 2010 season, as his physics defying power knuckleball, caught fans and experts completely off guard. He filled a void left by Santana’s injury, and contributed 11 wins with an ERA of 2.84.
All this from a man missing an Ulnar Collateral Ligament. Now if he’s able to build upon that success, then re-signing him to a two year contract just under 8 million will come as a steal, even for a pitcher in his mid-thirties.
When Sandy Alderson was named GM of the Mets, the moniker of “Moneyball” began to find it’s way into the Met fan lexicon. Debates raged on all winter on MMO regarding the validity of Sabermetrics and it’s use by Alderson and company over the years. If Moneyball refers to using any and all gauges to find the value in an individual player and to use it to your team’s advantage, then the signing of Chris Young fits that mold perfectly.
Young who’s managed just 36 starts the last tree years has battled through injuries the past two seasons. He doesn’t boast a tremendous career record; he’s 48-34 with a 3.80 ERA for his career. Not exactly superstar material but when you dig deeper into the numbers you find that over the past three years he has a ground ball to fly ball ratio of .43.
He also has given up only 6.17% of his flyballs 417 total, for homeruns, in Petco Park. Pitcher friendly Petco Park. Alderson is hoping for two things out of Young, health and duplication. If he can achieve both, in pitcher friendly Citifield, it’s more than possible he’ll have success.
Jonathan Niese has the Big Apple by it’s stem and all he has to do is continue learning and adjusting. He was absolutely brilliant at times last year, as I can attest having attended his one-hit gem against the Padres. Shout out to Coop on that one! Considering it was only his 18th career start, Niese showed the poise of ten year veteran. It’s that poise and his cutter that he’s hoping to refine this season, which will help him build upon his record from last year. Don’t be shocked to see him win 12 to 16 games this season. Niese was the sixth Met pitcher in history 23 years or younger, to throw a complete game one-hitter. The others are Gooden, Matlack, Ryan, Gentry and Schourek. Hopefully Niese is more like the first four and less like Schourek. Wouldn’t that be nice for a change?
Lastly the Mets have Chris Capuano. He’s possibly the biggest question mark in the rotation with his not one but two Tommy John surgeries. Yet he too has shown success in the past having won 18 games with the lowly Milwaukee Brewers in 2005. Not too shabby considering the Brewers won 81 games that year.
His velocity is finally back in the upper 80′s and low 90′s. Consider this, Oliver Perez was injury free and could barely top out at 85. Now speed alone doesn’t equal success that we all know but there’s an overarching theme with this 2011 Mets team and it sticks out like an overly optimistic Madoff return statement.
This is a team with a huge, I mean huge chip on their shoulder, probably from ownership on down. You’d be hard pressed not to find someone who doesn’t have something to prove, or throw in the faces of the naysayers or the so-called experts. I absolutely love it. How can you not really? What fun is it to have everything handed to you and crowned before you even step foot on the field?
It disgusts me to think that the core of this team – Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Bay, Ike, Pagan, Santana and the others aren’t able to dig into themselves and play like Terry Collins has said, “Like the back of their baseball cards.” If they stay relatively healthy, this should be a pretty damn decent team. A contender? Who knows, but definitely not a team destined for disparity as all the experts have predicted.
I’m an optimistic realist, I’m not expecting anything in particular from them other than that they give 100% of themselves game in game out. If they do that, stay healthy, and dare I say get a decent dose of good luck, anything is possible. You truly have to believe people.
About the Author: Joe Spector
I'm just your regular Joe. Staff writer @ Metsmerizedonline.com. Happily married and a father to a baby girl. I attended my first Met game at the ripe old age of 3 where my father scored a foul ball and had it signed by Lee Mazzilli, Joe Torre and Joe Pignataro. It was my Holy Grail - 'till I buried it in the backyard. I have my own website where you can read my drivel at your leisure @ www.thespectorsector.net
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.0 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Capuano is by far the weakest link and if Johnan is back by June/July we’ll only have to rely on him for 11-12 starts. Niese to me is the one that intrigues me the most. He petered out on us last season but what a nice job ib his rookie year. His curveball is the best plus pitch out of all five. Of course when Johan comes back he’ll have the best plus pitch if he can still deal his changeup like he did before. Dickey’s knuckleball is a great weapon because it can miss bats or induce contact which often leads to a weak groundball. All in all it’s not a fab five, but it’s not a bad five either.
Maniac I don’t see Johan back here until September at best and I agree that Capuano is the weakest link. If his first 15 starts go well I’d love to see what a pitching desperate team might offer us and then go with Misch if he makes it through waivers or someone of that ilk.
Capuano and Young will both be free agents and if they pitch well, will be looking for the 3-5 year deal at big money which is just too much of a risk.
Their time buyers who could be turned into something that could be here for 5 or six years and provide options, depth and competition which this roster so desperately needs.
Next year we could have Johan back, Mejia and Gee establish themselves or get another time buyer until they do. In the mean time getting a good first half and a good prospect or two from each of them (or a pick) will go a long way towards putting a good roster out there in 2013 and on.
If we have 45 wins at the ASB we can always let it roll.
the wilpons love you idiots that can believe in anything, the pitching is minor league level, you ignoring the facts does not change that. keep you r head in the sand.
You obviously didn’t watch any game last year, idiot.
79-83 & i know you still believe, idiot
The pitching was better than whatever hack team you cheer for, brain moron.
would love to work for you, what standards you have. wilpon apologists
Well indulge us into what your teams rotation is? Your a Pirates fan aren’t you? Or are you a hack of a fan and jumped to the Phils because you need to offset your sad lonely life with some assemblage of a winning feeling? Or perhaps you don’t even watch baseball and surf the internet trying to make yourself seem tough. Please Billy, let me know which sad category you fall under.
Come now Will, tell us, how do you really feel? Part of me doesn’t like to respond to commentors who speak from the opposite end of their mouth but I’m feeling a little spry this morning. What differentiates the Mets rotation from lets say, the Pirates? If you want a real lesson in what makes up a minor league rotation perhaps you should go take a look at them and leave the heavy lifting to us at MMO.
BTW just in case you need help http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/differentiate
i know you need the mets to be relevant or mmo fails, so i unbderstand your blindness. look at the nl contenders and tell me how the mets pitching compares, it does not, most of the starters are in the minors.
Just getting rid of some guys who spent part of their time here “contractually comfortable” and exchanging their presence for guys with multiple competitors for their position changes the attitude and vibe of the clubhouse.
Getting rid of some of the entitled players given big contracts basically because there was no one else we could get for that spot and instead filling the roster with guys who weren’t guaranteed anything money or roster wise is a welcome relief to me.
Too many fat cats all in the same room take a lot of the competitive fire out of a rudderless team. The NYY (not that we should be comparing ourselves to them) might target a specific guy as a free agent but they don’t expect all their roster spots to be filled that way. The rookies who do make it through aren’t one dimensional, their not adding any one’s rejects in the hope that they can help do something/anything. Their reveiwing multiple options and selecting the best ones. Even with all that they have made many mistakes through the years, not that they live with them like us, but they have still made them.
Anyone going to the NYY knows right away what the deal is. Over here, who knows? I feel it changing, I like the way its trending but it has to reach the point where people start getting paid for what they do in OUR uniform.
Delgado, Beltran and Bay all either turned down our offer, were willing to take less elsewhere or waffled right down to the last second before signing. A player willing to take substantially less in the same City from the NYY says a lot. Things have changed since then but not all for the good either. More short term replacements were brought into the mix at big dollars and either couldn’t stay on the field or didn’t play well. There is no reason why so many AB’s should have gone to AAA level players on a team with the highest payroll in the whole league.
Compare how Ollie was treated compared to Pavano. Pavano was publically ridiculed by the players and management, Ollie was tolerated.
I look forward to the day when there are a solid 12 guys that form the core of this team that consider winning to be the most important thing and every new comer has to fit into that environment. Until that happens years like 2007 and 2008 are our ceiling and years like 2009 and 2010 are the norm.
Whatever happens this year at least that change in the environment is in the works.
I don’t think the fact that a player that is willing to take less money to sign with the Yankees than with the Mets necessarily means the Mets are a shit run organization. I think it merely states that a player is willing to take less money for a greater chance of winning a championship and that is the one thing the Yankees can offer that the Mets can not match. Luckily for the Mets, player greed for money is greater than their desire to win championships, thus the Mets are able to simply pay more money to steal players away from the Yankees.
I think if the Mets had a success track record similar to the Yankees, we would have no trouble acquiring all the big name free agents. But even if we had a similar track record, we would still need to pony up millions upon millions of dollars to match the Yankees spending budget.
Unfortunately, the Yankees right now have all the perks: Having a great track record for success and having tons of cash to pay big time players.
The Mets unfortunately neither have the success nor the cash to compete.
Spending tons of money does not necessarily translate into championships (maybe playoff berths, but championships are always up for grabs).
There is nothing out there that says the Mets can not go out there and surprise MLB and win it all.
Success for the 2011 NY Mets comes down to a single phrase, a single idea,
that is “You Gotta Believe”! And this isn’t directed towards to fan base, it is directed towards the players. If this ball club believes in itself and it’s ability, the sky is the limit. But if they start casting doubt, such as doubt in the new manager, doubt in the new pitchers added to the rotation, doubts to the offseason practice and preparation each player has made, doubts to the new philosophy the team has exhibited;
well then the old Mets will re-emerge and failure is all but certain.
Lets hope that this 2011 club, has learned just one thing from these past 4 years of struggles, that is, Confidence and Belief in oneself.
Let’s Go Mets!!!
Scotty, Of course if we had the NYY track record we would be a lot more appealing to the best players but it wasn’t always that way with the NYY. They had to go through 4 consecutive losing seasons before they were able to get their organization into a successful, sustainable cycle.
At one time (with the highest payroll) they were looked upon as the buffon. Free agents used them to drive up the price and signed elsewhere for less.
They got it under control but it didn’t just happen. They had to move the Mell Halls to make room for the Bernie Williams. They essentially got 5 key players who were here for a decade, four of whom were here for 15 years at least. That formed the core of a team that experienced success and grew a culture of competitiveness and even more important, competence. Players believe that the organization is competent, fans too. That competence is what makes guys want to resign with the NYY, come over in the first place, have to be booted out before they leave or even go year to year cause they just want to be there. The best guys just want to be there. That wasn’t always the case.
There is a feeling that the NYY have a plan, a well thought out one. One that encompasses all possibilities, not just the best case. One with multiple options and one that everyone from the players, coaches, FO and ownership expect to result in long Octobers and it’s not acceptable to let each other down.
It’s a plan that goes well beyond just throwing a bunch of well compensated former All Stars together and expecting to catch lightning in a bottle.
“Compare how Ollie was treated compared to Pavano. Pavano was publicly ridiculed by the players and management, Ollie was tolerated.”
Twenty or so words which are more truthful than a huge book.
Well stated. Couldn’t agree more.
I’m with you Mr Spector. I’ve been waiting all year for the season to start so the Mets can (hopefully) throw all the crap everyone is talking on the team right back in their faces. Some want to say I’m overly optimistic about this season but I believe the pitching will carry the success of the team and the offense can’t do any worse.than last year. I’m keeping my head up. LET’S GO METS!
LGM MetsMan!
i think the met fan shouldn’t get their hopes up about johan,i doubt we’ll see him this year and if we ever do he will not be the same old johan.it’s time to start playing without the idea of him returning.
I’m not even thinking about Santana coming back this year. If he does, GREAT! But there would still be that period of him getting back into the major league groove. The way I see Young and Capuano is that they are at or near that period after an injury where either they get back to what they once were or show that they will never be the same.
I would love to see what qualifications you need to have to be dubbed “EXPERT”
Can you go to college and get a Phd in Temporal Clarity?
Is having good writing skills, spelling and grammar a pre-requisite to being a “Baseball Expert”?
Does watching a game everyday qualify you as an EXPERT? If so then there are a LOT of experts in this world, more experts than non experts!
The closest thing to an expert regarding sports is the Vegas Odds makers. But all they really do is set the odds based on potential betting for that team and a team that is 3-1 today will quickly become a 20-1 in three weeks if they suffer one injury!
It takes a lot more than a Magnetic sign on the side of your pickup truck or van to be an EXPERT PLUMBING SPECIALIST!
The fact that some newspaper who picked you because of your writing skills and assigned you to a baseball team does not make you an expert.
None of the so called Experts gave the Giants a prayer of winning the WS last year.
Yet they did!
162 games is a long time! Despite what “EXPERTS” may say anything can happen over the course of those games.
Injuries, Players not performing as expected, A rival over achieving, just about anything that can’t be foretold will change the outcome of this season!
I will remind everyone that we were predicted to win the division 3 years straight since signing Beltran. Were the experts right then?
I doubt very highly they are right now as well!
If the game results were actually predicatble there would be no point in playing and going to see games!
And if you buy into the “EXPERTS” and decide to wait until they are a winning team before you go to see them then you will be responsible for them being ranked even lower the following year because they don’t HAVE the money to compete and get the players they will need to be a champion!
There is only one EXPERT opinion you should listen to.
Your HEART!
If in your heart you love the Mets and want to see them do well then go out and get some tickets so you can BE THERE whenever they transition from loser to winner and help to support them so they can add a winner or two to the roster on top of it and ensure the EXPERTS will pick us next year!
If you are a Met Fan (and I’m sure all of us here are) why wouldn’t you got to Citi Field? First of all it’s YOUR TEAM. It’s a great place to hang out, watch a ballgame and relax, have some fun.
Maybe the expectations aren’t as high as in years past but the dissapointment level will be lower too and if they do surprise, the joy that much more. Tickets can be had inexpensively and the way the stadium is you can buy the least expensive one and just walk around. Women like the stadium a lot more than they did Shea and there are fun free things for kids to do. The foods good, we have some really good players and real baseball fans love to see guys on other teams in person too.
Every team has someone I want to see. Ramirez/Stanton/Johnson, Zimmerman/Werth/Ramos/Norris, Lee/Rollins/Halliday/Brown,Utley, Pujols/Holliday/Carpenter, Castro/Garza/Soto, Greinke/Weeks/Cain/Fielder, Votto/Bruce/Chapman/Arroyo, Mccutchen/Alverez, Bourn/Wandy/Castro/Figgy/Keppinger, Tim/Matt/Madison/Buster/Aubrey, Tulo/Cargo/Ubaldo, Upton/Drew/Johnson, Maybin/Thatcher/Hudson/Bell and Kershaw/Furcal/Uribe and even Mattingley.
For 50 bucks a person you can catch a game, have lunch or dinner, a beer or two, meet up with friends in CF and root for YOUR TEAM. What’s wrong with that?
Might even allow you to come out and see Reyes 81 times a year down the road instead of 3 or God forbid, 9.
Don’t take for granted that you can see Reyes (or Wright) anytime you want down the road without at least helping in the effort and make sure your voice is heard by cheering loudly for them.
Well with food and parking it may be a bit more than $50 but it’s still a lot cheaper than a broadway play a football game and any other 2.5 hour entertainment activity you could go to save a museum.
And once you been to a museum it’s done until they change the displays!
And I don’t care how much money the Wilpons may or may not lose to the Madoff thing…
If the fans come out and buy tickets they will go after talent when needed and the ticket prices won’t need to go up to make up for the lack of attendance the previous year and MAYBE the players will get the energy they need from a large cheering crowd to rise above the predictions made on them!
Everyone agrees the crowd can turn the tide and affect the opposition in a football game.
Why would they not extend that belief to the HOME team and Baseball?
I didn’t count the parking cause it’s not necessary for many people and there’s even some free parking to be found but some tickets can be had for 20 bucks, 10 for dinner, 2 beers at 6 each and a yearbook gets you in at around 50 but even if it was a 75 or 100. What does it cost to do anything in NY?
Walking’s free, so is breathing but that’s about it. If your driving gas, tolls, parking and all that could be included in the cost of just about anything you do. What are you going to do? Hang out on your roof?
For Met Fans mix it up a bit. Don’t stay away because of lowered expectations on the field. Come out have a good time, cheer for Reyes and Wright, take a few seconds to appreciate one of the best CFers of all time before he heads on, root for Ike and Josh, Pelf, Niese and RA.
Remember how much fun it was when we were under dogs? Squeezing into the playoffs and then taking down the Big Red Machine? Sending the Birds back to Baltimore? Scaring the life out of the Braves in the driving rain?
Lots of good baseball to be seen at Citi this year. How much? That’s what we’re gonna find out.
Spend a buck and come see for yourself, it’ll be more fun than a lot of things you could do.
Amen bro. I’m lucky I’m a long walk or a short bus ride away, depending on how I’m feeling and the weather.
“I’m not expecting anything in particular from them other than that they give 100% of themselves game in game out. If they do that, stay healthy, and dare I say get a decent dose of good luck, anything is possible. You truly have to believe people.”
Nicely said Joe.
this WHOLE TEAM isn’t as bad as the “experts” say.
take a look at the Phillies lineup without Utley and Werth. It is miserable. Rollins is old and sucks now, and same with Ibanez. and they have no right fielder. they are garbage except for their starting rotation.
to be fair, they still have Howard. But other than that, a lot of guys that are average at best, and some below for their positions.
Howard’s one year away from (see: Rollins and Ibanez).
not to mention the fact that he has ZERO protection.
sure, johan is out (and I am not expecting to see him at all this year, unless it is a couple of late September “proof of concept” appearances.
but overall, the pitching was fine last year, and that included a full 10% of the starts going to Maine and Perez (in which they went something like a snappy 3-13). Not to mention another bunch to Mejia, Neive, and a few other luminaries that I have banned from my mind.
I did the math one day, and IIRC it was ~18-20% of the GSs that went to guys that were horrid, or had no business starting a ML game (borderline being in the pen).
simply replacing those starts with nominally qualified ML starters, and the team is instantly better, even taking into account losing Johan. And I am talking about the marathon of the regular season, not what happens in a short playoff series.
Let’s say Joahn is -5 wins (him to his replacement). Offset that by a +10 for all the crapitude not in the rotation now. Or be conservative, and say 5. That means you are at least break even to last year.
so start at 79 wins, add 2 for not having Jerry, and bingo, the team is still a .500 team. But, factor in the offense almost has to be better (and starting with Beltran and Reyes in the lineup goes a long way to that), and hard to see losing so many low scoring and 1 run games.
whatever, think what you want, but I really, truly don’t see how people are predicting this team to win many FEWER games than the train wreck from last year did!
Texas, Oakland and the Angels instead of Cleveland, Minnesota and Baltimore and Detroit again (how come no Seattle?) is a harder schedule by a few games. Johan’s 200 IP at a 2.98 ERA has to be duplicated. Dickey’s 175 IP at a 2.84 the same thing.
It’s not likely that we’ll only get better where we were weak and remain the same where we were strong from year to year. It’s more likely they’ll be a little give and take in both area’s.
I don’t care. I’m going down there and I’m gonna be LOUD. Have a good time, enjoy myself rooting for my favorite team.
A 15-12 start in April is bare minimum if we’re going to compete. With 3 game home series against AZ, Hou and Wash and Wash again 3 times on the road it would be inexcusable to not get off to a good start.