6
2011
Ram’s Rambles: Jose Reyes And OBP
An article by 
See those men pictured above? Jose Reyes and David Wright. Not too far back in the past, Reyes was “The most exciting player in baseball” and Wright was “The Prince of NY.” They are cornerstones of this organization and I hope I still respect them both as much as I did two or three years ago. Wright has fallen victim to a concussion, some struggles with runners on (.261 with runners on, .260 with RISP, .250 with bases loaded in ’10) and a sharp increase in strikeouts, seeing his rate rise from 118 in 2008 to 161 in 2010 – perhaps he’s trying to do too much. Reyes on the other hand, has fallen victim to injuries – playing only 36 games in 2009 – his lowest total since 2004, when he wasn’t even a starter (so throw the damn injury prone label out the window, please.) He went on to rebound to play in 133 in 2010 – but stole only 30 bases, a sharp drop from the 65 he averaged from 2005-2008. There is question to which Jose Reyes we will see this year. Indeed, that will determine how much money he’ll get in his contract, but it should not determine whether the Mets sign him or not.
Do you get what I’m saying? Regardless of how well he does this year, I think the Mets need to sign him. I have to disagree with my colleague Craig on this one. Now, if he goes out there, injures his leg and doesn’t play the whole season – that’s an extreme and I can understand not signing him after that. But let’s be realistic and a bit optimistic for a second. Let’s assume Reyes stays completely healthy this season and completely dispels the “injury-prone” idea. But then let’s say he doesn’t drastically increase his OBP and puts up a .285/11/50/100/60/40 line. So i’m saying he’ll hit .285, drive in 50, score 100 runs, walk about 60 times and steal about 40 bases. Unspectacular by Jose Reyes standards but still pretty good overall at SS. For argument’s sake, his OBP is about .340? Sandy might not like it, but he’s going to need to shell out the money to get Reyes.
Why do I think so? This is where I need to throw the stats out the window. Jose Reyes is our lead off guy. He gets on base, causes havoc, and even had the term “Reyes Run” coined for him by Gary Cohen. For the record, that’s a bunt single – SB – and two ground outs or something of that nature to drive him in. But that’s besides the point – I can’t see a single player stepping up to replace the gaping hole Jose will leave if the Mets don’t sign him. Citi Field is built for this guy. We always say that Reyes never reached his potential – but if you take his best year, let’s say 2006 (the year we made the playoffs…?) where he batted .300/19/81, stole 64 bases, and had an OBP of .354. Tough for a leadoff hitter but Jose Reyes was a damned dynamic player that year. As he was and will continue to be for years. Turning 28 this year, Reyes is in his prime and can provide at least 3-4 more years of dynamic play.
Without Reyes atop the Mets lineup, I think we are destined to fail. Now don’t get me wrong – he needs to improve his OBP and his play overall, but honestly, I’d take the 2005-2008 Reyes atop my lineup every single season. Even a watered down Reyes outranks most shortstops and most lead off men.
If it comes down to Reyes being passed on by Alderson because of OBP, i’ll have to reconsider my stance as a baseball fan. Nobody on the Mets has the potential to do what he does, especially in terms of stolen bases – don’t sit here and try to convince me that Angel Pagan can steal 50 plus bases because he’d have to be the replacement leadoff man… Heaven knows who our new SS will be. And for those of you that do want him gone…? I’d like to see how you feel the first time you see him in an opposing uniform. I am just a kid who watches baseball, yes…but this kid really can’t deal with the idea of the Mets losing their “rare” home grown talent.
About the Author: Satish Ram
I am a Senior Writer and Editor here at MetsMerized - where I specialize in Minor League coverage. I have been on the staff since 2007 and I am currently in my third semester of college in New York City. You can find me at www.facebook.com/SatishRam or @SilverHeatMMO. Feel free to message me - I love talking about the Mets or baseball overall with anybody.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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‘There is question to which Jose Reyes we will see this year. Indeed, that will determine how much money he’ll get in his contract, but it should not determine whether the Mets sign him or not.’
I agree with this statement. Sometimes, it’s not just all about the numbers. The FO will really have to do some spin job for the fans to justify letting Reyes walk.
Satish,
You can add me to that growing list that if Reyes is let go simply because he didn’t get a couple of walks, than I too will reconsider my Mets fandom. I’ve thought about it and it would really be hard for me to change and i doubt that I would but for the first time those thoughts have been crossing my mind.
I am rooting for the Mets in spite of Alderson. All this because of a couple of walks.
On base percentage of .340..whoa! How awful, how un-saberlike! Whoa, a .340 OBP? What horror. Never mind the the .295 AVG, never mind the 35 doubles, never mind the 20 triples in like you said, a park built for Reyes. Never mind the 15-20 HRs, seems like the moved back fences didn’t hurt Jose. Never mind the 70 RBI’s this guy is capable of during the course of a game when he can become a different type of hitter and drive in runs.
Never mind the stolen bases, never mind the way upsets pitchers when he’s on 3B and does a fake down the line, never mind one of the quickest transfers and strongest arms of any SS in the league.
I’ve criticized Reyes in the past but all I ever wanted from him is to be smarter, steal in big spots that’s it. Sure a couple more walks will help but I’m not gonna kill him for it, because he’s too busy hitting triples in the middle of the game and scoring runs.
Craig Lerner’s post was the height of sabermetric arrogance and it’s good to see people noticing that. His post had NOTHING to do with baseball knowledge and EVERYTHING to do with putting a belief system ahead of traditional baseball. Or should I say smart baseball.
It’s good to see so many people being so vociferous about this. This is New York, not Oakland. This is a different type of fan. People here are not gonna lay back and let a “Philosophy” a “Belief system” ruin their ballclub like it has in Oakland.
All this because of a couple of walks.
What a crack up you are – the person that calls others out for NOT knowing baseball, yet you are rooting for the Mets in spite of Alderson.
You are a drama queen extremist, this has NOTHING to do with “a couple of walks” and if you had half a baseball brain you’d know that, but NO, you’re rather just rag on about nothing because YOU don’t like Alderson.
Keep repeating yourself and keep on proving what little you know, this isn’t little league baseball, you are just another whiner behind a keyboard, a wannabee.
Pathetic……..inspite of Alderson…………the only good thing the Wilpons have done in YEARS bringing in Alderson.
A couple of walks……………yeah ok……….genius………
If you like hitting in 2-0 and 2-1 counts you have to learn not to be so gullible on the preceding 2 or 3 pitches. Everyone who has ever even just watched this game from the stands understands this.
If your up 2-1 you can look for a specific pitch in a specific location and your more likely to get something you can launch.
If your down 1-2 you have to shorten up, cover the whole plate, be ready for any pitch. It’s just harder to have to look for anything, anywhere, than just 1 thing in one place. It is MUCH harder to crush a pitch when you have to cover anything, anywhere. I just don’t see how this can be so hard for real baseball fans to understand.
No one should go up to the plate looking for a walk, what you do is go up there looking for a pitch to hit. Get it, hit it. Don’t get it, don’t swing at it. Pitchers are going to get you out but don’t help them by swinging at stuff you can’t do anything with. Take the walk. A healthy BB% is only indicative of a hitters good eye and his maturity at the plate.
you refuse to accept that in theory, in a perfect world, yes everybody would behave like that. What you’re saying is text book batting approach and I’m sure every professional baseball player is fully aware of that.
But in real life there are professional athlete’s who got to where they got today in their own way and nobody is going to change them. Reyes is a good example of that. You can remind them everyday, and some seasons will reflect text book batting approach more than others.
You just cannot change them. Like Keith Hernandez said on the broadcast the other day, they are not robots and you cannot churn these players out to all play exactly the same way.
And after all is said and done, again, the sum total (team) is greater than the individual parts and you’re going to have to win with players who excel in their own way and contribute in different ways.
I agree with what Keith says. You cannot change peoples swing, there are always going to be some hitters better than others. Vladimir Guerero shouldn’t be asked to hit like Wade Boggs, but there are some basic things that all hitters should do the same and one of them is to seek to work themselves into a good count, learn to help themselves to recover from a bad one to a neutral on or even better.
You cannot will yourself to be a good hitter by trying harder. It’s different than football. Gripping the bat and swinging harder usually lead to worse results. Learning to think along with the pitcher is a part of being a good hitter. Even if you never saw him before your leadoff man will tell you something, you can see something from the on deck circle, see what’s he’s got, patterns, favorite pitch to conclude an AB with, pitch he sets that up with, varies his routine, can’t get a certain pitch over. It’s all information that you process without even realizing it. At some point you begin to understand what the pitcher is trying to do to you. These guys face the same pitchers over and over. They know them like a book. They study them on film and in person, they get thousands of keys.
Jose is not a good “bad ball hitter.” Yet he continues to go after the bad pitch. Usually fouls it off or pops it up off his front foot. Pitchers know this so they keep throwing it because the worst thing that can happen is the count remains the same. They could also get him out or put him further in the hole. No downside for them whatsoever, unless they miss but that’s the same with every pitch.
If Jose would resolve to just NOT SWING at stuff off the plate his gullibility is so well known he would instantly be handed bushell fulls of good offerings to hit. Go ahead swing at the first pitch to open games with. For Jose this is probably the best pitch he’ll see all day. Change your routine, vary your approach. Play with the pitcher. Out think the pitcher. Set up the pitcher not the other way around.
With Jose’s combo of speed/doubles/triples/HR’s he really could be a .400 hitter, I’m not kidding. How do you defense the guy? 40 bunt singles, 100 singles, 30 doubles, 15 triples, 15 HR’s = a .300 BA with ZERO walks based on 667 AB’s. Does anyone doubt he couldn’t reach each one of these totals?
Same exact number but add in 100 walks and he’s hitting .352 but now that he’s taking the free pass he’ll be seeing a lot more hittable pitches. One more hit a week and he’s at .400.
Pitchers cannot help walking people. When your facing a Lee or Halliday that’s one thing but even players who can’t hurt the pitcher get loads of walks, Castillo, Thole, Tejada. How do these guys get walks?
Their just careful at what they swing at.
Outstanding article Satish. I couldn’t have made the argument better myself. If he puts up #’s close to what you wrote and Alderson let’s him go, I may have to stop following the Mets for the following 3 seasons (the years left on Alderson’s reign of terror as Mets GM). I won’t go so far as to changing affiliations, but my disdain for Alderson and his “moneyball” philosphy is so great I think I’d ignore them for 3 years until he goes away. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt until he does something stupid like letting Reyes go. Of course there are scenarios in which re-signing Reyes wouldn’t make sense (i.e., suffers a severe knee / hamstring injury which costs him the 2011 season & puts his future in doubt). In a case like that I’d be OK not bringing him back. But to let him go because of a few walks not taken is idiotic. Period.
I may think it’s a big mistake to let Reyes walk – however, I won’t stop watching or change allegiance – anymore than I did when they traded Seaver.
I think everyone is taking this Reyes thing way, way too far. Lerner’s piece was way right-winged, but he made some good points. But this way left-winged idea that Sandy will let Reyes walk if his OBP doesn’t surpass .350 regardless of what else is does is equally as ridiculous. People don’t pay attention if that’s how they view Alderson. If Reyes returns to his ’06-’08 numbers, then he needs to come back. Simple as that. And that INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO a .350 OBP. If he plays significantly lower than those totals, which INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO a .350 OBP, then a long-term, $100 million contract is simply not wise, no matter what “philosophy” a GM has.
I didn’t say he’s willing to let him walk or anything like that.
I was just noting that I feel he needs to be kept, almost no matter what (with the exception of a horrific injury plagued season) and that if he isn’t kept, there’s going to be hell replacing the guy.
I have nothing against Alderson or his ideals. I just worry that if OBP is going to be a defining factor into signing Reyes or not signing Reyes (and not the money), i’m going to be severely pissed off. Whether he gets a long term 100 million deal or a short term deal, it’s whatever to me. I think he just NEEDS to be signed.
Satish, I didn’t mean to call you out. You personally weren’t the subject of my post. I thought your post made a lot of sense. I, too, would be really upset if Jose’s let go because of a low OBP and ONLY low OBP. Who I was referring to are those people who think Sandy believes OBP is the be-all end-all of a player, and that’s just as wrong as the idea that OBP SHOULD be the be-all, end-all of a player.
Like I said, if Reyes returns to his ’06-’08 numbers, then he has to come back. But even if he’s healthy, and his season totals in 150 games look like this: .270/.330/.400 with 8 HR, 50 RBIs, 30 SBs and 15 CS and 18 errors, how can you justify giving him big money, regardless of what his “potential” is. Just because he’s a fan favorite and has tremendous talents, doesn’t mean he’s exempt from having to earn his contract.
Now that, I understand. I think the topic of resigning Reyes (and Alderson’s ideals) have created the distinct extreme sides of the argument, whereas I believe that his true ideals lie between the two sides. It’s sort of like…There are three sides to a recollection – What Person A says, what Person B says, and the truth.
You basically gave a statline close to last year’s numbers – and I get you, because I expect him to improve off those numbers this year – and it’ll justify a big contract. I don’t think he deserves the big money dependent on his past but logically, on his present. But I do think, right now, he deserves a fair amount of money and a contract.
I definately agree he should be given a contract. But do you think the Phillies are lamenting the loss of Jayson Werth? Sure, in a vacuum it would have been nice for them to keep him, but look at the contract he received! It was rididulous! The market does exist, it’s a real bitch, and it’s coming after Jose.
Even if he does put up a good season, at what point does logic prevail and people admit that his contract offer from another team just isn’t worth it. We won’t know that till we see his performance and what other offers might be on the table, but there’s a very large amount of baseball “insiders” who think even Crawford’s deal was way, way too rich.
Crawford and Werth were overpaid – no question.
The Rays knew they couldn’t keep him – but they do have OF prospects in Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce…etc.
The Phillies – They have Mayberry, Francisco, and top prospect Domonic Brown (even though he was recently injured) – so they weren’t afraid to let Werth walk.
What leverage do we have? We have nobody in our farm system that can replace Reyes. That’s a major problem. Reyes holds the leverage.
That’s why it’s real important Tejada gets his act together in the minors at short stop. Get that bat into working order and cut down on his errors. Then maybe Tejada can make a potential hole at the top of the order a little easier to take.
A little easier to take but…there’s a MAJOR difference between Tejada and Reyes – and we all know that…and we worry about it.
Damn skippy there is.
“But do you think the Phillies are lamenting the loss of Jayson Werth?”
They might considering the fact that unless Cliff Lee can make up the difference between his replacement and those 89-99 RBI he used to provide they could lose some games they did not last year with them.
But was he worth the money? Hardly!
I am sure they can find another 100 RBI for less money than Werth got!
And we might get more OBP from someone other than Reyes but if thats all you look for then your going to miss out on those 29 doubles (scoring position) 10 Triples (Scoring Position) 11 Hrs (Actual self generated scores) 54 RBI (43 not himself)
And if you don’t look at them you might not notice that his repleacement has .030 more OBP which consist of mostly singles and walks and very few RS because he doesn’t get into scoring position as much as the guy who got on base less but made better bases and got MORE MASES in total!
You’re right. They can stick most anyone behind Rollins, Utley and Howard (and barring any injury from those guys), Werth’s replacement will fall into 100 RBIs. And Reyes is definately more than just his OBP. Bust Sandy knows that. Everyone knows that.
All Jose has to do is correct the few flaws in his game this season. For one, he needs to stop getting under the ball, which results in him popping up constantly in foul ground like he did today in his 1st AB against Boston. He’s done it time & time again. Another thing is to play smarter when it comes to plate discipline, defense & baserunning. I’m really hoping Jose returns to the ’08 Reyes (with the exception of the April & September Jose) or even surpass the numbers he put up most of that season. The question is, can he do it? He’s capable of getting 200+ hits in a season, but there’s more he has to accomplish.
Reyes’ decline in numbers last season is due to his slow start after thyroid, Injury mid season and a lack of good batting around him in July and August when he was struggling with the injury and Beltran and Wright were both hitting .220 or less for the month.
If he stays healthy and the rest of the team hits Reyes will not only give you everything he gave us in his best year he might even improve on them!
FINALLY, common sense has prevailed. You cannot judge every players’ impact on a team based on his stats. Nice article, Satish
While I am with you in regards to wanting and hoping both Reyes and Wright remain Mets you can’t just say that you sign him to that money regardless of what he does. It will depend on what he does but even there HOW good he is puts other questions on the table.
If the rest of the team is putrid (And I am talking EXTREME putrid here) you have to ask yourself is Reyes more valuable WITH us or can he do more to fix the team as a trade chip to fill 3 or 4 other spots and have the whole be equal or superior to the part you lost to get it?
Giving Reyes a 150Mil contract would probably solve the issues at SS but what about the rest of the team?
You would now have less to fix those other positions which could mean a waste of whatever money you spent on Reyes because Reyes himself is not enough.
So yes what he does is not really all that important to sign or no sign as it is for Trade or No Trade! At least the way I am looking at it.
Here are the possibilities as I see them.
Reyes is GREAT this season.
Option 1 – everyone else sucks Reyes worth a BIG score in trade.
Option 2 – Team Great we win a WS or close to it!
Option 3 – Team Mediocre…The Quandry. Bad enough to need 3 or 4 players you can get in a trade or Good enough to re-sign Reyes and try to improve positions elsewhere with the money we saved by getting rid of the bad.
Reyes is GOOD (not great)
Option 1 – Again everyone else sucks, But trading Reyes doesn’t get you enough back to warrant losing him
Option 2 Team is great again, Is there a better SS to sign? Is there room elsewhere to lose something at SS so you can gain someplace else or some combination of somewhere else with a new SS that together can give you more than Reyes himself?
Option 3 Team Mediocre, Reyes not worth much but won’t get as much and might be in the affordable contract range to keep.
Reyes is Horrible, Injured, whatever…
Option 1 Again team sucks, Was it Reyes? Was it something else that hurt Reyes? He won’t get much in FA so unless there is someone who you can buy for the same price that gives you more you probably resign him or try and trade him to someone who thinks it isn’t Reyes’ fault and will give up more than they should!
Option 2 Team is great, For whatever reason Reyes Sucked the price is cheap and why not give him a deal to hold us until we develop or find a SS that is better or trade him for something else we need.
Option 3 Again Reyes will be cheap, Matter of finding something better at the same price or trade him
So really Reyes performance will affect his worth in general as far as what he will demand but his value to the team is really not AS dependent on that. His value will also be based on what happens around him and what move makes the most sense towards building a competitive team.
I hope Option 2 of Reyes is great happens. Thats the only scenario where he is not traded and we don’t have to worry about nthe state of the franchise!
Cause we will all then be bitching about how we can’t get WS tickets because we all canceled our season plans due to pessimisim about a season that hasn’t even started yet!
I think trading him is a completely different story. If the front office comes out and says “we’re not signing Reyes in the offseason for sure” (around the deadline) because of money, performance, or whatever it be…and then they trade him? I’d be less upset, but i’d still be pretty upset. Of course, 99% chance that if they trade him at the deadline, they won’t be saying anything about if they were gonna sign him or not.
Concerning the statement about the money, I’m not saying just throw the money at him no matter what. I’m saying throw a contract at him. The money should be worked out according to the way he plays this year (and taking into account his past performance) but…I just think the Mets need to sign this guy because he’s neccesary to our success.
Satish we are pretty much on the same page here…
I just bwanted to point out to some others that as much as Reyes means to us being here he could possibly mean as much to us in a trade.
And what value that has will depend on if he is traded or not.
It will be that trade value that will largely determine if we re-sign him as well.
If they decide he isn’t bringing back enough in a trade then they will probably resign him right after the Trading deadline to keep him.
I don’t see the issue of his contract waiting until the season is over so what he does for most of the season won’t even enter into the decision to sign. What he does before the trading deadline will be the key to the decision and what they get offerred for that performance.
Yeah but it’s all about money, and someone else will be paying him in 2012. Stats who cares? Excitement who cares? Winning who cares? This is the New York Mets we’re talking about here. The only thing important to the Mets right now is not spending any money. Doing everything cheaply from here on out. In case you missed it, the team is up to it’s eyeballs in hock. They can’t even get loans anymore. They aren’t going to shell out a plus $100 million contract to anybody. I just pray it isn’t the Yankees or Phillies that sign Reyes. Go Red Sox! At least he could help them embarrass the Yankees. I love Jose, but the window has closed. And you know whose fault it is? That’s right, it’s the idiot Wilpons. They have screwed us so bad that now that they’re drowning, they have dug their fingernails into our team and they’re dragging it down into the inky murk. The only chance the Mets have to straighten out the mess is to get rid of the owners. Cut out the cancer that has sickened this organization and it’s fans. If someone took over who was in a healthy financial situation, with Sandy’s help, they could start to sort out this mess.
Exactly, you have enunciated the sad state of affairs we are in. With this ownership, it is all about the dollars and they have none of them to spend. Jose’ is as good as gone and I’m not happy about that at all. This is supposed to be a team in transition. What we haven’t understood is that it is a transition down to reduced expectations, not up to striving for championship.
Now I know Mets baseball is back! Not one, but two MMO bloggers back from their offseason slumbers.
All of a sudden I feel like listening to Back in Black. BTW Ram’s Rambles? Nicely done.
Haha, thanks. I think i’ll be using that handle for my pieces now and then.
It’s definitely baseball time. I can’t wait. Spring Training isn’t good enough, ha.
Everyone is forgetting that Reyes missed most of ST with a thyroid condition, and he wasn’t able to do any athletic activity while he was out. That’s why Jose had such a slow start to the season. On may 19th his average was .210, and his OBP was .256. From that point on (may 20th to the end of the year) Reyes hit .310, with 11HR’s, and a .346 OB%.