3
2011
No, I Did Not Have A Metamorphosis
An article by 
Sometimes blogging about the Mets can be frustrating, especially when you get the kind of email I got yesterday from a reader who believes I’ve become some sort of saber warrior since we hired Sandy Alderson as the new GM.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Heck I still don’t even know what most of those anagrams are or what they are supposed to indicate.
Yes, I read the book Moneyball, but it wasn’t the idiots guide to sabermetrics a lot of fans seem to think it is. It’s a very interesting story at how Billy Beane managed to stay competitive and deliver winning seasons without having the luxury of an open checkbook like the Yankees, Red Sox and Angels. He found value and paid far less for similarly productive players than his counterparts, and his team’s production mimicked that of the big spenders for a whole, hell of a lot less. Nice job by him.
I am not affording Sandy Alderson the benefit of the doubt because of his philosophy. I’m not drinking the Koolaid lately because my views on baseball have been magically transformed. I still hold true to my views and still believe in things like heart and clubhouse chemistry and being clutch. Sandy Alderson might have a philosophy that doesn’t entirely jive with my own, but I will still give him the benefit of the doubt as I would to any new general manager.
Alderson has not even gotten the luxury of presiding over one game that counts in the standings, so I am not going to jump on him just because he sees things differently or values players differently than me. Any new general manager deserves at least one full season before we start piling our gripes behind the front door to his office.
I would have maintained my same optimistic points of views this offseason no matter who the Mets had hired. Any change was a welcomed change to me. I was so fed up with the way this team performed under Minaya that even M. Donald Grant looked like a shining light in comparison. (Maybe just a 15 watt light bulb kind of shining light.)
I’m affording Alderson the same courtesy I would have given any new general manager, and despite our differences in how we perceive the game, I hope he proves me wrong and makes me a believer.
Why does everyone think that there is only one path to success? There are literally hundreds of paths to success, just as the Mets have shown that there are hundreds of paths to failure as well. There are no absolutes. There can’t be, otherwise it wouldn’t be a sport worth watching or loving. We love baseball because of it’s unpredictability. The most important thing I’ve learned about being a baseball fan and even more so a Mets fan, is to ALWAYS expect the unexpected.
So to those of you who took the time to blast me lately because of your perception that I’ve changed my views in some profound way, I haven’t.
I’m simply inviting the new guy in and saying, “Thanks Sandy, for trying to help us turn this mess around.”
Thanks for taking a job that few people wanted, and thanks for changing my pessimism back to optimism.
But most of all, thanks for talking to us with the dignity and respect we deserve. Thank you for telling us what your plans are and why you’ve made all the moves you’ve made so far.
Thanks for looking us in straight the eye and being 100% honest with us. I hope you do great things with our team while you are here.
Lets Go Mets!
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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Sad. I’m glad you’ve kept an open mind about Sandy. You’re a better man that the e-mailer for arming yourself with knowledge before making up your mind.
Anybody who would write you an email offended that you may or may not be using sabermetrics when evaluating talent has problems. The first being that they do not understand what sabermetrics are. Perhaps Theo Epstein and his 2 World Series Rings could enlighten them?
Or Theo Epstein can send a thank you card to Pedro Martinez, Curt Schlling, Todd Papelbon (for one of them) And a steroid juiced induced Big Papi (who suddenly became a slugger after coming over from Minn) and Manny Ramirez. Oh..and Terry Francona. Or how about the energetic Kevin Millar one year? Johnny Damon anyone?
Woo Hoo – it took moneyball philosophies to win with that team
The Boston Red Sox argument to support this case is the biggest load of CRAP these guys use to support their case. If the Oakland A’s were perennial World Series winners then you have an argument.
Yep, all those guys were saber darlings. Good of you to notice. Had nothing to do with a book. Look at all the real stats, the important ones. Look at Ortiz’s and Manny’s OBP and SLG%. Look at Pedro’s and Schilling’s WHIP, K ratio, the real stats. Then you’ll see what they won.
X,
Look at Manny and Ortiz’ HR and RBI production. That’s what won games for Boston..not their STUPID OBP. It was their hitting.
You can look at Pedro or Shillings ANYTHING during their good years.
You truly have no CLUE about baseball.
derr…Babe Ruth had a great OBP….derr.
Yeah, it was a good thing their slugging percentage was so high. With the high OBP guys on base in front of them, it led to a high RBI total. Good OBP followed by high slugging percentage = RBI. The formula is as old as baseball itself.
And Babe had a great OBP. That’s a big reason why Gehrig had seven seasons of 150+ RBI and finished 5th all time, despite only playing 14 full seasons of only 154 games.
Bayonne dude, no matter how much you try to wish it not true the fact remains that Epstein is a fan of sabermetrics from the day he took the job as GM of the Red Sox.
You can call it all the names in the book but in the end nothing changes.
“Epstein is scrolling through a half-dozen scouting reports, poring over the page with the player’s record in the Stats, Inc. handbook—the manual of sabermetricians (named for the Society for American Baseball Research) that is never far from Epstein’s right hand—and highlighting lines on the thick statistical printouts that indicate why this player, whose name Epstein does not want to mention publicly, is such an attractive proposition. “Plus-plus walk rate, plus-plus isolated power,” he says.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1027837/index.htm
Just accept it already.
Isolated power, or ISO, is simply measured by subtracting a player’s batting average from his slugging percentage. This in effect “isolates” his extra-base hits, his power, by removing singles from the equation.
Just in case anyone wanted some more info.
Maybe using the science of studying marginal/mediocre ballplayers and getting them at a good price could account for getting a guy like Mark Bellhorn. I’ll give you that.
Also playing in Fenway Park could’ve helped him have one of his best statistical seasons ever. The other one? Wrigley Field.
But maybe Phoneyball could have helped the Red Sox net Mark Bellhorn? Nice lightning in a bottle for one year though.
While it’s now unusual for a team not to have use for sabermetrics at all what I find really hard to understand is that the sabermetrics guys had to come in and beef up the scouting dept. Which begs the question just exactly what WAS Minaya basing his decisions on?
Eddy Toledo (Reyes,Timo Fern, Carlos Gomez) was let go by Minaya who hired Ramon Pena (who immediately signed his nephew Francisco Pena) in his place and then fired him in 2009. Tony Tijirina (minor league field coordinator)was let go in favor of Luis Aguya was also fired at the same time as Pena (9/’09) and of course Director of player personal Tony Bernazard was the guy who got rid of Toledo and Tijirina was let go around the same time. Toledo was immediately hired by the Marlins and runs the DR for them and Aguya was immediately hired by Cleveland to be their minor league field coordinator and Pena took over there as Director of Latin American Operations. That’s a lot of upheaval in a very important area of the baseball operation over a relatively short period of time. Losing Toledo is especially disappointing.
And ONE scout for the entire NL?
Budgets being what they are notwithstanding, if I ran the show, I’d have a scout for each major league city. Just put them up there. They don’t leave the ballpark during their team’s homestand. THEN I’d have a separate division for the minor leagues and still a third division for IFA’s. That’s what I would hire Omar to lead.
But pipe dreams are fun, aren’t they?
Not a bad idea X. Seems to me that the sabermetric lovers have a lot more love for the scouting end of things than the talent evaluators.
You simply cannot have a successful organization without competent scouting. The numbers are there in black and white. I can look at a stat sheet and see who’s performing well and why, but I can’t get a feel for a player that way.
I mean, it’s obvious no organization can have 40 scouts on payroll, but think how well built the team would be if there were.
With the amount of money we have flushed over the last 20 years it would be hard not to justify having 4,000 scouts on the payroll.
If you were poking around at the upcoming amateur draft, thinking about this guy or that guy would you have just voluntarily handed over your #1 pick for a 40 year old LFer?
If you were focusing on high ceiling amateurs from Latin America for the July signing period, weighing which guys you liked the best, who you thought you might be able to sign and for how much would you have been spending 15 M on a 40 year old LFer?
If you were scouring the waiver wire, rule 5, non tenders and plan B free agents don’t you think you could have found a couple of guys who could have played LF for you for more than just 100 games in 2 years?
If you had scouted other teams farm systems don’t you think you could have exchanged a couple of minor leaguers to shore up LF so you could keep your draft choice?
Jordan Zimmerman, Tommy Hunter, Mike Stanton and plenty of other good players were available with that pick.
No wonder we have to go the aging free agent route for every position. No wonder we’ve had 1,000 different RFers and LFers and only 1 really good second basemen in 50 years.
No scouts. Just someone playing fantasy GM. And some people want more of the same.
It’s no secret why the fantasy stats in fantasy baseball are runs, RBI, batting average, wins, saves, ERA, etc. Those stats mean very little to real baseball. I’m glad the Mets have a GM who first and foremost understands the importance of scouting and also knows which stats tell the real story.
Me too. I’m sick of the kind of crap teams we put out there every year.
“Seems to me that the sabermetric lovers have a lot more love for the scouting end of things than the talent evaluators” – agee
Whoever said that the opponents of saber/moneyball don’t value scouting? That’s a 100% false statement.
People like Vinnie B, Metsie, myself, etc. never questioned the value of scouting and we certainly don’t value it less than you guys.
It’s pretty much the foundation of an organization. No kidding.
You just always talk about it. The debate could be about pancakes and you’ll go over the history of scouting in every answer. You’ve come up with the ultimate second guess…always go back to the scouting.
And EVERY GM values scouting, not just your cult leader.
Now Alderson is the only GM in baseball who values scouting. You guys make me sick.
“runs, RBI, batting average, wins, saves, ERA, etc. Those stats mean very little to real basebal”
That’s just such an ingnorant, FALSE, ridiculous, profoundly arrogant, uneducated statement. Only a clown who has NO UNDERSTANDING whatsoever about baseball would make such a dumb, dumb, stupid statement.
Not only that, you should have some respect for the stats that that have been part of the fabric of major league baseball throughout it’s history.
Now we have a bunch of goons with their noses glued to their fantasy baseball stats completely immune to the principles of real baseball and what makes it even worse is that the internet now gives them a voice, i would say even a louder voice than the traditionalists because the traditionalists – most SMART people are too fed up to even answer such garbage.
I think you missed the point.
Omar was supposed to be a big talent evaluator/scouting guy (IOW, a traditional BB guy), and not interested in saber stuff.
but if so, how come the big bad saber guys come in, and 1st thing they do is hire MORE scouts?
I do agree that Omar went the spending money route too much, that’s why I liked Phillips because he built a Mets team with smart trades.
If Alderson comes in and wants to hire more scouts that’s fine and probably a good thing. Why Omar did not operate that way? I have no idea but at the same time his team’s failures on the field were not the result of his scout hiring methods either.
“Now we have a bunch of goons with their noses glued to their fantasy baseball stats completely immune to the principles of real baseball…”
No, you mis-read. The runs, RBI, batting average, wins, saves, ERA, etc. are the fantasy stats. Go look it up.
And I do have some respect for them. Notice I said “Those stats mean very little to real baseball.” If I had no respect for them, I’d have said they had nothing to do with real baseball.
It’s shouldn’t even be about whther or not you support Alderson. All you’ve asked is that we give him a chance.
I love some of the “so called” experts that visit this site. I’ve never read words of such a short sided group of people in my life.
It’s either all or nothing with some, and if you are willing to give the guy the courtesy to see what he can do you get called all kind of names (which proves the intellect of those making such comments) and in most cases don’t even have a valid counter-argument.
This team has not be really successful in too many years, yet the change that 99% of the fan base screamed for, still comes with chants of those that “know better”.
Lets continue the passion filled discussions, but can we at least have counterpoints instead of insults.
“Growth means change and change involves risk, stepping from the known to the unknown.”
Joe –
You said exactly what I would have said.
“I’m simply inviting the new guy in and saying, “Thanks Sandy, for trying to help us turn this mess around.”
Thanks for taking a job that few people wanted, and thanks for changing my pessimism back to optimism.
But most of all, thanks for talking to us with the dignity and respect we deserve. Thank you for telling us what your plans are and why you’ve made all the moves you’ve made so far.
Thanks for looking us in straight the eye and being 100% honest with us. I hope you do great things with our team while you are here.”
Amen
Don’t forget that he buried his Dad during the holidays. And kept his collegiate teaching obligations on the West Coast.
And, he has made a difference in this team, for which we are thankful.
Nice post. I’m glad to see that there are a lot of people here who actually do “get it”. I’m so tired of seeing people on this site criticizing the new front office even before they showed up for their first day of work. All because they espouse a different philosophy. How would you like it if you were treated like that at your jobs?
The old “spend a little more” crowd can’t see past the latest guy we “spent a little more” on who did very little, let alone the dozens of them who came before him that we couldn’t even give away for nothing. Lets face it, spending hasn’t been the problem, it’s BEEN the problem. One disapointing free agent or big trade acquisition after another and yet some people think all we need to do is “spend a little more.” You just can’t make this kind of stuff up.
The highest payroll in the NL over 20 years and we have had more losing seasons than winning one’s. Three times in the playoffs in TWO DECADES and they want to continue to do the same old thing. SIX seasons of losing 90 or more games WITH the highest payroll in the whole league and they still think One Garland, Wang or Harang can fix the whole thing.
If it wasn’t so damn sad it would be pretty funny. Maybe it will be soon.
Anyone catch what Keith said in the bottom of the 7th inning? How he agrees that AAA is the best place for Tejada and Mejia and he agrees with the philosophy of Terry Collins and “Sandy Alomar? Oops, I mean Alderson?” I guess the guy I’m assuming e-mailed Joe won’t have much to say about that.
And for anyone wondering – no it was not me that emailed Joe. So that’s that.
Keith also said
Keith – you can’t put everybody into a machine and churn them out like robots expecting them all to behave the same. They’re all individuals and should be treated as such, it’s very difficult to change someone, you can make minute changes but that’s about it
So he said things both for and against this new way of thinking.
I don’t think the “new” way of thinking (which isn’t at all new) endeavors to change anyone. I think YOU think it does. Who are they trying to change? Or are they just trying to get a better idea of young kids against real competition over a longer period, as opposed to 40 plate appearances against guys who’ll be bagging groceries in three weeks.
I think he was probably referring to Sandy Alderson’s obsession with OBP and his beliefs that ALL players must have one walk in 10 At Bats and ALL players must act like leadoff hitters. Things like that.
You can’t change hitters into something they’re not.
That being said, you can work with a hitting instructor (which is why hitting instructors ARE important) to try and make some changes but to completely change a hitter’s approach?
You can’t do that.
Right. Because Sandy is trying to change everyone into a leadoff hitter. What team are you watching? And improving plate discipline isn’t “changing” anyone. It’s improving plate discipline. Very important. Being aggressive and having good plate discipline aren’t mutually exclusive. You should know that.
We knew last year that the Mets needed to be more patient at the plate and that a new hitting coach was needed.
That has nothing to do with anyone’s particular philosophy. That’s just good old fashioned baseball. You learn to try and be smart at the plate as young as little league so yes it’s nothing new.
And that’s my point. You call it “new” thinking and that Sandy wants to change everyone. No he doesn’t. And you just admitted it.
I’m very skeptical of his philosophy that he wants all batters to have one walk in 10 ABs and everyone behaving like a leadoff hitter.
That second statement is just pure insanity and like Keith said, they are not robots that can be churned out to behave exactly like you want them to.
That’s the part that concerns me. I don’t want to lose any good RBI guys just because they don’t walk once every 10 ABs. If a young kid could develop into a nice RBI guy, hit .280 or so, 30 HR power, maybe 40 walks in 500 ABs – that won’t bother me.
It all depends on what type of hitter he is – but to make EVERYONE adhere to what you expect them to be as a hitter? No.
But he’s not doing that. Where are you getting this? When did Sandy say everyone on the Mets has to walk once every ten at bats? And regardless of that, why does that make “everyone a lead off hitter?”
there really is no such thing as a nice RBI guy.
That is a good hitter with good hitters in front of him.
Now, if you said you’d be willing to sacrifice some OBP to get some power, I might agree with you.
And 40 walks in 600 PAs isn’t so bad so long as they aren’t accompanied by 160 Ks.
That one walk in ten AB’s is for minor leaguers to learn, hone and practice their discipline. He wanted it to be ingrained BEFORE they got up here.
Different drills and ideas have been in vogue about developing your batting eye since baseball began. You can take a guy who hits the ball twice as far as everyone else and yet if he swings at everything he’ll never make it.
Many prospects used to stand in the box, not allowed to swing, just calling out whether the pitch was a ball or a strike. Duke Snyder among others in his era.
One technique was to make everyone run a lap for each ball they swung at during BP.
It’s nothing more than a different way to try and achieve the same goal coaches have been trying to get prospects to learn for years. But not to learn up here. To know before they get up here and put into practice once their here.
Nothing to be afraid of.
No Donal, sorry but you’re not rewriting baseball history.
Yes, nice RBI guys do exist. You’ll hear it every day. Some hitters don’t respond as well with men on base.
Unbelievable that i even have to have this type of conversation.
Beyond belief.
“No Donal, sorry but you’re not rewriting baseball history.”
The concept of an RBI guy didn’t really become vogue until the 1980s. Up until then, they were good hitters. So, now we’ve established that thinking changes.
“Yes, nice RBI guys do exist. You’ll hear it every day.”
I hear lots of things everyday. The only thing I’ve learned from that is that the masses are idiots.
“Some hitters don’t respond as well with men on base.”
Yes, we call them “lousy hitters”.
“Unbelievable that i even have to have this type of conversation.
Beyond belief.”
I don’t remember putting a gun to your head. Besides, if you’d just learn to accept the facts, we can move on from this already.
we apparently didnt know that enough. not even close to well enough, because frenchy continued to get AB, and he was absolutely destroying any chance the mets had to win.
well not your perception of facts pal,
like i said to you before, half the time you have no idea what the hell you’re talking about. You are so clueless about this game of baseball it’s pathetic.
Sure i like to watch basketball and hockey but it doesn’t mean i’m gonna go on a forum and talk about a sport that i don’t know much about.
That’s you. You may like baseball and want to do podcasts and all but you are so removed from how this game works it’s unreal.
I know, me and stat head losers like Sandy Alderson, Theo Epstein, Davey Johnson, Bobby Valentine, and Josh Hamilton have no idea what baseball is really about.
You do.
I don’t understand why everyone is engaging and/or provoking this guy. He is either over seventy years old and set in his ways or too blind to grasp saber concepts that have a proven correlation with success. Seriously, are you guys just doing it to see the steam come out of his ears? Not accusing, I’m just genuinely curious why everyone is responding to the ignorance.
It’s not just about him. It’s about other people that might read or hear stuff by people like him.
He’s intentionally blind to the facts and that is fine for him. But when he lies or misleads about things, then other people still not aware of the facts may take him at his word.
And I do enjoy laying down the occassional snark.
ASSumptions of course, maybe he was talking about running drills, play cards etc….
Any chance for you to repeat AGAIN your tired old thoughts about SA and OBP, and the only one I think obessed with it is YOU.
I imagine the guy won’t have much to say about Darling stating that HE felt it was a mistake to have Mejia up here last year AND that it was bad idea to move him back and forth from the pen and rotation. He probably won’t have much to say about Darling’s assertion that the Met focus should extend beyond just this year for a change either.
Those types of thoughts are probably not often found in text books about baseball drills.
He also commented on the confidence factor of bringing up a player too early, to the detriment of it possibly being long standing.
All good points.
This is going to be a long season, for many reasons of which some have nothing to do with the players on the field.
As a 40+ Met fan though, I’m looking forward to some NY Met baseball.
That’s why it’s important to have success at each stop along the way in the minors. No one that we have brought up here in the last 5 or 6 years has been any good at all for more than a short period of time if at all except for Ike who went to a big time 4 year baseball school.
The sad thing is the fact that it even has to come to this. Where Joe felt the need to address the idea of being open-minded and giving the benefit of the doubt to a new GM.
Why some people have such anti sentiments to this new F.O. rather than being more open minded and taking a wait and see approach I will never know.
As usual another well said post Joe.
heart and clubhouse chemistry are absolute nonsense. get on base, score runs, make outs.
Martin. Shhh! Don’t let us know that you don’t know what you don’t know. Keep it a mystery. Terry Collins says that Daniel Murphy is a great teammate and he plays the game as hard as anyone he’s ever seen. To Terry, it’s a bit more than X’s and O’s.
Even if you were right, Martin, you run into trouble with your reductionist views when the team’s management makes decisions based on perceptions that are outside your frame of reference. Whatever you or I post on this website about Murphy, whether it’s good, bad, skeptical or indifferent, Terry’s and Sandy’s mindsets are all that count.
Test questions: Martin, if you doubt my words, translate Terry’s views into your “get on base, score runs, make outs.” Is it translatable? Is Terry mistaken? It’s not like a math function, is it?
P.S.: If it were as simple as you say, why did the Pirates sit Lastings Milledge on their bench last year when his numbers would have made him otherwise competitive with the guys who replaced him?
also it is “jibe” not “jive”
As society evolves so does their language and use of words. Webster’s New World College Dictionary already allows the jibe sense of jive. The two words have been interchangeable since 1996. A little knowledge can go along way my misguided fellow.
I find it mildly funny that an anti OBP sentiment and a pro RBI guy sentiment were conveyed in the same argument.
I wonder how an RBI guy would do if the players hitting ahead of him didn’t care about getting on base? Hmmmmm.
or if the guys on base would feel if the slugger didn’t care about driving them on. Otherwise they just become another LOB stat
joe ignore the haters.
Since people are saying that I’m cherry picking these quotes, I’ll try to link this article about the Director of Amateur Scouting for the Boston Red sox.
http://news.soxprospects.com/2010/09/q-with-amiel-sawdaye-red-sox-scouting.html
I hope that works….
So, is the Red sox’s success because of sabermetrics, or is it because of good scouting?
Irrelevant. You’ve invented this battle between sabermetrics and scouting where one never existed. The Red Sox have a tremendous scouting department and that’s why they always have either great farms, or great pieces to acquire great players. They’re the model organization the Mets should emulate.
That being said, this guy was just made the director of scouting this year, when the Red Sox didn’t even make the playoffs. He was an assistant director dating back to 2005, but was only an assistant in the department in 2003 and 2004, during the Sox most important seasons. So what is it you were actually trying to prove?
So you agree with me. The Red Sox’s succes is because of good scouting, not because of sabermetrics.
Where does it say that? It says they have a great scouting department, that’s all. Theo is probably the poster boy for sabermetrics. You picked the wrong organization to try and disprove sabermetrics.
They win because they have a great scouting department.
They win in part because they have a great scouting department. The other part is they use the right statistics when they look at that portion of a player’s profile. The sabermetric statistics. Very easy to understand. Scouting + saber >>>>>>>> scouting + traditional.
Yeah, they sure used the right statistics to get Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Pedro Martinez, Curt Shilling, Johnny Damon, Jonathan Papelbon, the leadership of Kevin Millar.
Lots of guys on that list that rise to the occasion, rise in big spots, clutch hitters, clutch performers on the mound.
Give some of those attributes to a couple of our cornerstones too and I’ll say we used great statistics too.
What a load of garbage. What a case of piggybacking!.
Like I said…i’ll give you Mark Bellhorn.
Yup, those guys respective OBP, SLG%, wOBA, WHIPs, xFIPs and K ratios were tremendous. And as for Millar, you can have his leadership. Leadership and a buck will get you a breakfast bagel. I’ll take his .383 OBP from low in that order, continually turning the lineup over and providing more base runners for the guys with the great SLG%. That’s how you score runs. It’s as old as baseball itself.
You have to realize this Bayonne: only sabermetrics could tell you that Martinez and Schilling were great pitchers.
If Theo never looked at them, he never would have know that Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling were good.
Yeah well thank God he hit .297 that year or his OBP ain’t worth a damn,
and at this level when they’re ALL professional athletes, in this type of environment you bet LEADERSHIP is very important.
And it goes with any sport, NO winning team, no matter how many great performances you have is not going to go anywhere with good direction, good leadership and people who can deliver under the most extreme condidtions.
You haven’t a God Damned clue about baseball or not only that about what it takes to succeed in competition, whether it’s in sports, the workplace and anything else in life that requires it.
You want to work for a boss you hate? No. You find leadership in sports, a team of engineers, a team of scientists working on a project, team of architects, etc.
Leadership and being able to deliver in the clutch are necessary ingredients in ALL aspects of life. Whether you have the horses to compete or not.
yeah, and then X starts using a bunch of stats he knows i’m not gonna bother looking up and why should I?
I have more baseball knowledge (and Vinnie B and Metsie too) in my pinky than people like X do in their entire LIVES.
I can find you a million .297 hitters ain’t worth a damn. You can’t find me one .380 OBP that didn’t greatly help his team.
“NO winning team, no matter how many great performances you have is not going to go anywhere with good direction, good leadership.” So clearly you’re twelve, or you’d remember the “25 Guys, 25 Cabs” THREE-PEAT WORLD CHAMPION A’s.
Note I put something in caps also, so it MUST be true.
Oh I’m sure if you looked hard enough you could find one that didn’t!
Nick Johnson of the yanks might be a good fit…
380 OBP and a BA under the mendoza line.
Be reasonable. Johnson missed like 80% of the season. If he played 150 games with his OBP where it was, he’d have been a tremendous asset to that lineup, and his batting average would have risen as a result, because he would have gotten better pitches to hit when pitchers determined they couldn’t get him to expand his zone.
1977 Yankees, great chemistry there. Leadership was obviously Reggie Jackson’s big addition to the club.
the 1986 Mets. Not a club house full of guys that couldn’t stand each other. Nope. Gary Carter wasn’t seen as a mercenery or a prima donna out to make a buck for himself.
2001 Diamondbacks. No d-bags in that dugout. Randy Johnson isn’t one of the most lothed players in the majors or anything. And its not like Schilling is a grating blowhard who wears thin on team mates. Although, I do like when he skewars the snakes in the media.
Seriously, I really believe that terms like “leadership” and “chemistry” are the baseball version of “a wizard did it”.
“Seriously, I really believe that terms like “leadership” and “chemistry” are the baseball version of “a wizard did it”. – Donal
If you seriously believe your own GARBAGE than you have not one clue in your life as to what competition is all about and I doubt you’ve ever been on a field or challenged in an athletic, competitive way in your entire life.
YOU DISAGREE WITH ME AND POKE HOLES IN MY LOUSY REASONING ON THE INTERNET! THEREFOR YOU KNOW NOTHING AND ARE A BAD PERSON AND A FAILURE AT LIFE! RAWR!
Stop getting mad at me because the facts are on my side. Has it ocurred to you to look at your own position to understand why there is a conflict?
Vinny & Bayonne are you still having trouble accepting that Epstein is a fan of sabermetrics?
Why do you two continue to have an issue with this?
“Epstein is scrolling through a half-dozen scouting reports, poring over the page with the player’s record in the Stats, Inc. handbook—the manual of sabermetricians (named for the Society for American Baseball Research) that is never far from Epstein’s right hand—and highlighting lines on the thick statistical printouts that indicate why this player, whose name Epstein does not want to mention publicly, is such an attractive proposition. “Plus-plus walk rate, plus-plus isolated power,” he says.
This is the vocabulary of the new-school G.M.; Epstein, like the Oakland Athletics’ Billy Beane, 40, and the Toronto Blue Jays’ J.P. Ricciardi, 43 (both of whom passed up the Boston job before it fell to Epstein), is a true believer in the value of statistical evaluation.”
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1027837/index.htm
Again when will you accept that just cause he is a fan of one it doesn’t mean he is not a fan of the other? By other I mean scouting.
Just get over it already and accept it.
Dude, I know he’s big of saber. The point I’m trying to make is their success has more to do with good scouting, rather than sabermetrics.
Good scouting = Success.
That’s cool. There’s no set ratio of scouting to stats when analyzing players. If team A chooses to spilt it 50/0, team B chooses to go 99/1 scouting or team C chooses to go 99/1 sabermetrics, that’s up to them. You are inventing a scouting vs. saber argument. It’s in your head. When teams analyze statistics, they are better off applying the sabermetric theories. How heavy they rely on those stats is entirely up to them. The fact remains the saber stats are better tools than the traditional stats. Scouting is an entirely separate entity.
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 3:18 pm
Dude, I know he’s big of saber. The point I’m trying to make is their success has more to do with good scouting, rather than sabermetrics.
Good scouting = Success.
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Dude who cares? The point is that they use the combination of both as are the Mets it seems.
Why are you so hung up on that it has to be 75% scouting 25% saber or whatever percentage you care to use?
Who is saying that Epstein is using more saber than scouting in this blog?
You are arguing a point that I have yet to see someone challenge you on. Find the quote from someone here saying it’s more saber than scouting that has led to epstein’s success?
Why you are so hung up on this I do not know?
What matters is they use both scouting and saber this idea that people are telling you that epstein uses more saber than scouting is one I only see you debating.
How can you not get what I’m saying? The Red Sox’s success is BECAUSE of GOOD SCOUTING, it isn’t because of sabermetrics.
How can you not get what I’m saying?
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 3:28 pm
How can you not get what I’m saying? The Red Sox’s success is BECAUSE of GOOD SCOUTING, it isn’t because of sabermetrics.
How can you not get what I’m saying?
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Vinny how can you not get that its a combination of everything?
Just accept it already.
Accept what?
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Accept what?
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That no one is saying its more saber than scouting. It is a combination of both that is all that matters in the end.
Why you need it to be more scouting than saber I sure do not know since i have yet to see anyone tell you its more saber than scouting.
An very underrated part of the Red Sox strategy for building a team that can compete every single year is to replace those draft choices they forfeit by signing free agents.
In the last 8 years the Red Sox have let go Cliff Floyd, Orlando Cabrera, Derrick Lowe, Pedro Martinez, Johnny Damon, Bill Mueller, Alex Gonzalez, Keith Foulke, Eric Gagne, Billy Wagner, Jason Bay, Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre.
This has resulted in the Red Sox obtaining 6 extra first round, 13 extra supplemental round and 4 extra 2nd round draft choices.
If you think that having an extra 3 draft choices every year in the the first 90 picks doesn’t make a big difference guess again.
Ellsbury, Buckholtz, Bard, Clay, Lowrie, and their just from their first 11 of those 23 extra picks from 2003-2006.
They not only got some of the best years of those players they lost, they also got fresh prospects when they left.
Incidentally 8 of those 23 picks came from the Mets who chronically have needs at 2B (Lowrie) SP (Buckholtz) OF (Ellsbury) and the bull pen (Bard)
When you combine these extra draftees with trades for guys like Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, IFA’s like Julio Iglesias, Their own draft choices like Dustin Pedroia, and Papplebon as well as LOADS of guys still coming up the chain it’s not hard to figure out why they have been successful.
Letting Cabrera go and signing Renteria cost them the #30 pick in 2005 but got them the # 23 pick (Ellsbury) and the # 45 pick (Lowery) Not a bad deal huh?
This is the same exact situation that Philly will be in next off season and scares the s**t out of me. They could lose their #30 pick, get a #20 AND a supplemental AND Reyes all for what it would cost them to address SS anyway.
It’s not by accident that Epstein has accumulated all these extra picks through the years. He actively seeks to pick up guys he can both get good production from AND recycle for fresh prospects later. That’s what the Wagner trade was primarily about. That’s why he took a flyer on a diminished Beltre, a guys playing well like Victor Martinez and Bay.
Targeting guys who are playing FOR their last contract instead of ON their last contract has resulted in much better production now and much more depth and quality later.
The older guys we have signed or traded for through the years have nothing left to replenish the farm with (Pedro, Beltran – can’t offer arb, Delgado, Wagner – gave away, Alou, El Duque, Green, Schowenweiss, Putz, Valentin, K-Rod – can’t offer arb to a guy making 12-17 M, Castillo, Perez, Bay)
Combine that with how many busts we have drafted, how many picks we’ve given away and prospects we’ve traded away (not that many of them were very good) and it’s not hard to see why we STILL have the same damn holes every single year and how we wind up with guys like GMJ, Sheffield, Cora, Cattalonotto, Sullivan, Feliciano, Reed, Hessman, Jacobs, A. Hernandez, A Reyes, Arias, Nickeas, Francouer, Castillo, Carter and Perez on the roster.
Ellsbury and Lowrie would have been much better choices in the OF and 2B than many of the guys we played there over the last couple of years. Perez and Castillo could very easily have been recycled for supplementary round draft choices but there was no one in the farm able to step up, so because we did a bad job of drafting in 2001-2004 we took a chance on them and not only did we get poor play, they like all the rest leave us with nothing when they go.
Agee, that’s a very good strategy….So they got Ellsbury, Bucholz, Lowrie, and Bard by doing that? Wow – No wonder why they are doing good, they do that, and then you add the good scouting that they have, plus they spnd a lot of money.
But saber is the reason why they are good – yeah right.
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 3:25 pm
“But saber is the reason why they are good – yeah right.”
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Dude again its a combination of everything. No one has ever said it is solely because saber.
Just get over it.
Get over what? what are talking about? All I’m saying is that good scouting is why they have success – why is that so hard to uderstand?
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 3:32 pm
Get over what? what are talking about? All I’m saying is that good scouting is why they have success – why is that so hard to uderstand?
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Get over that it is a combination of everything that they have success saber included.
Why is that so hard for you to understand?
Vinny you keep trying to prove something no one is even challenging. that it is more about scouting than saber.
The fact is it is a combination of both and the idea that you need to say it is more about 1 thing than the other is one that i dont know why you feel the need to do so?
Simply put scouting plus saber is used and thats all to it.
If you feel its 90% scouting and 10% saber no one can challenge that since you couldnt even prove it if you wanted to.
The fact is that it is a combination of both and that is all that matters except to you it seems since again i dont see anyone here telling you its more saber than scouting.
Mr North Jersey says:
March 4, 2011 at 3:34 pm
Get over that it is a combination of everything that they have success saber included.
Why is that so hard for you to understand?
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Sabermetrics wasn’t why they won, it was good scouting, and because they get a bunch of extra draft picks (read agee’s post again) they also spend a lot of money….
Is that what you mean by a “combination of things”
and I’m not arguing about saber vs scouting – I’m saying they won because of good scouting.
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 3:41 pm
and I’m not arguing about saber vs scouting – I’m saying they won because of good scouting.
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Exactly your saying its because of scouting i am saying its a combination of both.
Just accept it already.
But they used sabermetric stats when analyzing the players the scouted. That’s all. It doesn’t matter whether they place 90% emphasis on scouting. What matters is that the 10% emphasis on stats is on the sabermetric theories. That’s all I’m saying. Sabermetrics > traditional stats. Scouting has nothing to do with that comparison.
Vinny dude accept it already Epstein is a fan of saber they won due to a combination of both saber, scouting and whatever else you wanna add.
Just accept it.
Then who the hell did Boston get as a result of their sabermetric studies? Mark Bellhorn?
Using the Red Sox as a weapon in your sabermetric argument is pure baloney. Why them? Why not use Oakland?
Oakland is the perfect example so why not them? Because Billy Beane has had 13 years to revamp the organization 3 times over with his beliefs and they have gotten much worse? Is that why?
Why use Boston’s 2 World Series victories with any combination of Manny, Big Papi, Papelbon, Damon, Millar, Curt Shilling, Pedro Martinez.
Not only are some of those guys hall of fame baseball players, but some padded their stats because they were juiced and others are able to have legendary performances when the pressure is on. And that DOES MEAN SOMETHING. Being able to perform under pressure will win you championships. If you cannot perform under pressure than you’re not going to win anything.
Why not use Oakland instead? Show me where sabermetrics has been directly tied to a World Series Champion.
You can’t because it has never happened. Yet this is a philosophy that should be embraced? BS!
You can succeed in Major League Baseball without EVER having to look up a sabermetric stat or ever reading some book.
How about some books about the Twins?
Bayonne, do actually know how Ortiz came to the Red Sox?
“Why not use Oakland instead? Show me where sabermetrics has been directly tied to a World Series Champion.” Yankees, Braves and Red Sox to start. And Oakland has had the third most wins in the AL since 2000, and that’s including their recent four-year struggles. And I have no idea where you got this idea that sabermetrics and a large payroll are mutually exclusive. Saying sabermetrics didn’t help the Red Sox, it was Manny and Ortiz and Pedro and whoever else? How do you think the decision was made to acquire those players? Sabermetrics and scouting. Weight the two however you want.
dude bayonne epstein is a man that believes in the use of saber. What more do you need for him to tell you?
Exactly what saber stats he uses for every move?
What moves did alderson or beanne make that are solely based on saber? go get me the quotes on all of those.
Go find all those while your at it.
Sure X,
I need sabermetrics to help me to get Manny Ramirez. Yeah, right.
Ortiz was signed as a free agent, and I would guess after all his injuries with Minn that about then he started using his steroids and became a huge HR hitter. When he started using steroids? I don’t know but I’m just guessing.
Get the hell out of here with your sabermetric being the reason they acquired Manny. What crap.
Curses, that was supposed to be a longer question:
Bayonne, do you know how the Red Sox got Ortiz and Millar and when Papplebon was drafted and by whom?
Oh yeah,
Lets pick the Yankees, Braves, & Red Sox as teams who won World Series because of sabermetrics.
Now it’s becoming a joke. You guys know CRAP about baseball.
What about Oakland? They are getting worse. How many of those winning years were with a roster that Billy Beane inherited…you know..the roster that has gotten WORSE over time since he’s been there.
Bayonne Mets Fan says:
March 4, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Now it’s becoming a joke. You guys know CRAP about baseball.
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Bayonne with all due respect you are not exactly a beacon of knowledge either.
Now you’re implying payroll has nothing to do with success. It matters. Deal with it.
Vinny, I never said that saber is the reason they do well. I think it may be part of the reason they haven’t made some of the poor free agent choices that we have but I would say a bigger reason for their success is just common sense.
If you accept the fact that a player at 32-35 is not going to be a long term solution but could be recycled INTO a long term solution the choice with resigning your free agents becomes clear. But it’s all about looking at the team from a 5-10 year perspective as opposed to year by year. ie: “who can we get to play 2B, LF, RF C, SP ect. this year.”
That, combined with great scouting (why should big market teams settle for just good scouting?) and the willingness to go over slot to extract the most value possible from the draft pick is what KEEPS them from being dependent on more expensive ways of acquiring players.
I didn’t think Lackey or the years necessary for Crawford were good moves but I guess they did. Maybe that was sabermetrics that influenced them, I don’t know. Time will tell.
I do know that getting a supplemental round pick or a supp and a 1st round pick for all those guys they let go is a very smart move. Last year when they had the type of injury marred season we did in 2009 they had a lot of young guys they brought up and didn’t go 70-92 like we did, they went 89-73 in the AL East.
When Pedroia went down they had Lowrie, we haven’t had anyone like either since Fonzie.
When Youkliss went down they had Langerwhatever and still had another 1B in their system to get A. Gon (Rizzo) This year they’ll have Cameron, Drew, Ellsbury, Kalish and Crawford. Lowrie can back up Youk, Scutero, Pedroia and A Gon. or take SS himself. Iglesias is already Ordonez and their just waiting to see if he’ll hit. Beckett, Lester, Buckholtz, Lackey, Wakefield, Matsusaka isn’t bad and there’s more on the way.
Okijima, Wheeler, Miller, Jenks, Bard, Papplebon, What’s not to like?
How many of their guys cost them a draft choice? Drew, Cameron and Scutero were plan B’s. Didn’t cost them a thing. Lackey and Crawford, that’s it as far as I know.
Unlike us you won’t see Boston without a couple of guys who could play 2B or RF and that probably goes a long ways towards explaining why 89 wins in a very difficult division is considered a bad year for them while we’ve only won that many games twice in the last decade.
Agee, unlike some people on here I got what you were saying the first time – you didn’t have to explain what you meant.
you’re 100% right on this.
OK Thanks Vinny.
What exactly does he say that proves that advanced metrics play no role in Boston’s success? The author mentions how much more money the Red Sox are spending on the draft and their prospects, but that is actually something most sabermetrics supporters preach.
He gives his break downs of prospects, but it is mostly about mechanics and how the organization is working with them. He doesn’t really say anything one way or the other about advanced metrics.
And does it have to be one or the other? Are you even pay attention to what people are saying to you?
I think you have no idea what you’re talking about…..
Cool. if sabermetrics supporters preach spending on the draft and their prospects, then I agree with them there.
I believe the Red Sox’s success is because they have a great scouting department – Good scouting = success.
And advanced metrics is a tool of good scouting.
Why are you in a fight with shaddows? Why do you feel the need to spread lies, insults and misinformation?
“Why do you feel the need to spread lies, and insults and misinformation”?
Ummm…..Why can’t you just debate my points?
Well anyway….
The Red Sox’s win because of good scouting – How is that a lie, insult, or misinformation? So, are you saying they don’t have a good scouting department?
I can’t debate your points because they are fallacious. You attack arguments no one ever made and then ignore when people they try to set your facts straight.
Sabermetrics or moneyball or advanced metrics or whatever you choose to call it is nothing more than quantifying a player’s production to a deeper degree than was previously done. It has made us call into question previous assumptions regarding how we measure production, but that is another discussion.
No one has ever said it was to replace scouting. In fact, I and others have repeatedly stated that it is in fact a tool for scouts to use.
If you choose to ignore or dismiss the stats, fine. It’s your choice. But, please do not try to lie or mislead others about what is being said.
You know, i don’t think I have ever said stats would replace scouting………..So I think you’re the one trying to lie or mislead others – i have never said that.
And what do you mean by “I ignore people when they try tp set the facts straight?” who am I ignoring? You? I’m talking to you…..lol
You’re the one attacking arguments no one has ever made – I never said stats would replace scouting – please stop putting words in my mouth.
You claim proponents of sabermetrics think they replace scouting.
You’re so dishonest, you won’t even cop to your own claims.
Donal,
Just stay out of it. Let xtreemicon handle the debate, at least he has some idea what he’s talking about and understands us fine.
You can’t even understand the question or statements let alone engage in the discussion so as hard as it is for me to say this…let extreem handle it okay?
Bayonne Mets Fan says:
March 4, 2011 at 4:07 pm
Donal,
Just stay out of it. Let xtreemicon handle the debate, at least he has some idea what he’s talking about and understands us fine.
You can’t even understand the question or statements let alone engage in the discussion so as hard as it is for me to say this…let extreem handle it okay?
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Dude Bayonne really?
Donal is replying to Vinny and you feel the need to intervene and tell him not to share his thoughts on the subject with Vinny?
How about you worry about what u say rather than telling someone else not to share their thoughts on a topic.
I dare wonder how you would react if anyone asked you to stay out of it?
So, Vinnie isn’t accusing proponents of sabermetrics of saying that advance stats supplant scouting?
Is that it?
Because I can quote him and call you a liar.
It’s like we’re debating which apples make the best pie and he says screw the apples, the pies only taste good if the crust is good. One has nothing to do with the other.
I’d be interested in which moves (I read about Bellhorn) Epstein made that Sabermetrics influenced the most. I assume that Drew and Cameron defensively might have been two for that reason, can anyone confirm that and add others and the reasons behind them?
Whatever dude, I know what I’m saying, and I’m tired of having to try to explain it you, you won’t get it, and you never will – I’m just going to be wasting my time here – you’re just hearing what YOU want to hear, and not what I’m actually saying.
I know what I said, and I’m sure Bayonne, Metsie, and everyone reading this knows what I’m saying also.
Just so everyone knows I was responding to “Donal”
Vinnie if your saying boston won because of scouting you saying a half truth.
Boston won because of a number of things.
Among those thing saber was included.
If you can admit that then your fine.
If you feel the need to say it is more this than that than there is no way to to prove or disprove what percentage was used on whatever.
You want to say that in your “OPINION” scouting had more to do than saber? Fine.
The fact is in the end it was a combination of many things.
You can accept it or not if you do great if not than your in denial.
Of course I’m giving my opinion! Every time I post, do I have to write “opinion” just so everyone knows?
come on – and it’s you’re opinion that saber was part of their success – ALL of us are giving our opinions.
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 4:36 pm
Of course I’m giving my opinion! Every time I post, do I have to write “opinion” just so everyone knows?
come on – and it’s you’re opinion that saber was part of their success – ALL of us are giving our opinions.
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Vinnie dude it is fact that epstein is a proponent of saber.
That is fact no matter how u slice it dude.
If you think its your opinion sbaer didnt play a part you are wrong for the simple “FACT” that epstein believes in saber and uses it.
That would be like me saying Beane in Oakland didnt use saber to build his teams.
I can say it is my opinion but i am still wrong cause he in fact is also a proponent of saber.
This is not hard if you allow yourself to just accepot the facts in front of you.
Vinnie,
I wouldn’t respond to that guy anymore. I mean it’s up to you but wit that clown it’s never about the subject, it’s about the people.
Right from the beginning he’s been about how people say things and not about the subjects at hand. This is the jobless guy that has his nose up my butt wherever I go and believe me it is creepy.
He probably gets a nice erection the rare times i do refer to him, but it’s up to you…I would not respond to him anymore because you’re gonna wind up going off the subject and into how you express yourself. It’s insane. There’s other blogs for those types of things
Oh Bayonne get over yourself and your name calling.
I have been talking on topic all afternoon and here you come with your rant of needing to tell people that so and so is a clown?
Dude please if you dont have something to add on topic don’t waste the threads time.
I know Theo is uses saber, but in my opinion, that’s not the reason why theey have been succesful – good scouting is why.
Got it?
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 5:07 pm
I know Theo is uses saber, but in my opinion, that’s not the reason why theey have been succesful – good scouting is why.
Got it?
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Vinny scouting is part of it. Got it?
If you can’t accept that it is a combination of things than your saying a half truth.
The same way that Beane in Oakland or Daniels in Texas use a combination of things as well.
No one here has said scouting didn’t play a part in Boston’s success what is said is that Saber has as well for the simple fact that Epstein is a proponent of saber.
Got It?
Oh my god…..I know Theo is a proponent of saber – I never said he wasn’t. But I think him being a proponent of saber wasn’t the reason why they were good. Their good scouting was why they are good – that’s my opinion – accept it.
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 5:29 pm
Oh my god…..I know Theo is a proponent of saber – I never said he wasn’t. But I think him being a proponent of saber wasn’t the reason why they were good. Their good scouting was why they are good – that’s my opinion – accept it.
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Vinny dude who said anything against that your opinion that scouting was why they were good?
Not me that’s for sure.
The fact is it was a combination of many things.
Accept it.
Well I will just add that ANYONE who thinks they have a system that is the KEY to winning is really talking out of your…. errr…. you know!
Yes Epstien is a Saber guy, he won two WS not so much by building but by trading what he coul;dn’t build good enough to win to get the players he needed.
He won 2 WS. Yankees aren’t a saber team and how many have they won?
Oakland used moneyball to be competitive, People seem to think they were a winning team. I challenge them to show me what they have won other than a very weak division.
Who looks to be the storngest team in the league right now?
Boston? Oakland or the un sabermetric oriented Phillies?
They don’t look at numbers at all!!!
Charlie Manuel said they look at the players internal makeup and not so much the numbers.
Even their way they had to go out and import a bunch of pitching before they won anything!
Braves dominated a decade, granted Sabers weren’t really all that popular yet but they managed to win without using it.
So all this talk about number analysis and OBP is really just a false plan that will work around the same frequency as any other plan!
You want to win and make a WS winner you don’t need moneyball or the baseball reference.
What you need is a lot of good timing and luck!
You can create your OWN luck by making good and solid evaluations but what you use to make that evaluation is not as important as the application of the method used!
Team win who have superstars at every position and then other teams win with a bunch of unknowns who happen to gel as a unit and out perform whatever their previous stats and numbers would indicate.
It is folly to think that because a player did X for the past three years that that is what you are going to get next year.
Life and reality doesn’t work that way!
And the truth of the matter is if you THINK you have a system and stick to it you will probably miss out on other indicators that do not fall into your system that would have made you a success!
Why is scouting important? because as the Phillies do (and Xtreem said) you get to know the player. More than you will looking at his stat sheet.
And knowing if a player is a fighter or a leader or a if he will handle stress is even MORE important than how many doubles he might hit in 500 At bats!
Becuase that will speak to how he handles the pressure of the big game, the big at bat and the slumps that every player goes through on a yearly basis!
and even after you made all those decisions and evaluations perfectly you still have to contend with the fact that the human body breaks down without warning and schedule!
So even the numbers you predict are dependent on the conditions that player has to endure and his preventative conditioning regimen that keeps him healthy!
Thats yet another reason why makeup and personality is as important as the statistical history.
because a workhorse with a .350 slg will eventually hit more HRs than a lazy fat bastard who doesn’t stay in shape and misses games despite his having a .450 slg!
What is in the head and in the heart leads to more wins than what is in the statbook and the boxscore.
“Yankees aren’t a saber team and how many have they won?” That just simply isn’t true. The Yankees are very big into statistical analysis.
Yeah, maybe statistical analysis of their finances maybe. Signing Tex & CC and A-Rod – real statistical analysis. My foot.
Again the only guy I actually heard Brian Cashman say they used advanced stats to acquire was Steve Swisher..and what happens? They talk about trading him because he can’t play in playoff pressure.
And even if the Yanks do use statistical analysis to some degree, how much of it has actually directly resulted in success? Where is it?
Andy Pettite and his DECEIVING numbers has been more directly responsible for Yankee success than any statistical analysis they have EVER done.
Not to mention Mariano or eve Jeter. The statistical morons hate Jeter which should tell you more than you need to know about that nonsense.
You can’t find me on place or link or article that says anything about the Yanks looking to trade Swisher (Nick, you dingleberry) because he can’t hit in the playoffs. You made it up to try and look right. And why do you think the Yanks broke the bank for those guys. Because their saber stats are through the roof. It’s also how Boston operates to a degree.
I saw Brian Cashman interviewed on TV and he said he used advanced metrics to help acquire Swisher, I’m not making that up. He said they got him because he hit a lot of line drives that were caught and that’s why his average was deceiving. Believe me or not, it’s up to you. I don’t lie here.
I sure as hell heard on TV they were looking to move him and I’m surprised if nobody else here heard the same thing, and yes his performance in playoffs has been questioned. I know i heard it discussed and I’m sure i’m not the only one.
Of course they used advanced metrics to acquire Swisher. And he’s been very good in that lineup. He’s hit anywhere from 2nd to 7th. He’s a very, very good hitter.
What you heard on TV (which is like how you remember every one of D-Wright’s plate appearances from 2007-2008) was that the Yankees would look to move Swisher IF they can sign Crawford. Now that makes sense, as Crawford’s a far superior player. But never once did anyone ever say even for a second that the Yanks would trade Swisher BECAUSE of his inability to hit in the playoffs. I’ve heard the same discussions about that particular part of his game and how it’s not up to “Yankee standards”, but no one ever said they’d trade him because of it and after two miserable post-seasons, he’s still the starting RF.
But really nice try.
Nope,
Wrong again. He became a trade candidate because He was failing to produce in the playoffs and of course there were options out there including Crawford.
But yes, they were thinking of moving him because of his bad performance in the playoffs. That’s EXACTLY the reason
not your interpretation and as usual you are WRONG.
But it’s not my interpretation. It’s in every single report everywhere.
Yes, BUT HAVE YOU PLAYED THE GAME?!?!??!?
I didn’t read what you said, but I saw a bunch of caps, so it’s obviously right.
Every team is into Deep statistical analysis Sabers didn’t invent that.
Yes EVERY team does deep statistical analysis.
Doesn’t mean they use Sabers just means they use stats!
Do the yankees go by OBP alone as saber would have them do?
NO!
They use BA and HRs and all those other stats Sabers tend to want to ignore and say are unimportant!
This is the problem I have whenever anyone tries to claim the yankees are a saber team just because their GM says they analyze stats…EVERY team does but that doesn’t mean that sabers or the stats sabers says is FAVORED are the ones they actually use!
Where you got the idea sabers use only OBP to field a team is distressing. That person/website lied to you. And I could have been more clear. The Yankees are heavy into sabermetrics. Cashman is a big proponent of it.
Ok so what is the difference between analysis with sabers and analysis with traditional stats…
Please enlighten us on what the difference is?
Do sabers use HRs and BA and RBI?
Yes!
Sabers say those stats are not important!
You have said this many times yourself because you think they are team related not player related yet the only way the OBP (which you a saber guy deems is the MOST important stat) works if if the rest of the team has it not so much the player himself.
So you tell us what is the difference between analyzing with sabers compared to how it’s been done for the last 100 years or so.
I would LOVE for you to clarify that!
Who says HRs are not important? According to sabermetrics, the very best thing a hitter can do is hit a home run.
And nobody said OBP is the most important stat. It was a very undervalued and underappreciated stat for a while, but why one earth would you count the OBP of a pitcher?
Again, when you have to lie about what others are saying to support your position, you should probably rethink your psotition.
“It’s folly to think what player X did the last 3 years is what your going to get next year.” and yet that is exactly what every single GM we have had under the Wilpon’s (other than Mcilvaine) has done.
No he just dismantled the team you think Cashen grew!
http://archive.phillyarena.com/archives/2009-11-21/Phillies-not-interested-in-Sabermetrics
“Do you have a sense for how much the Phillies’ front office relies on sabermetrics and cutting edge statistical analysis in evaluating players? A lot? A little?”
Andy Martino: “None. Ruben Amaro and his men are savvy in many ways, but they are not interesting in statistical analysis, sabermetrics, etc. The Phils are a very traditionally-minded organization”
http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/2018/do-phillies-ignore-sabermetrics
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2010/10/sabermetrics-math-doesnt-add-up-to-philies-manager-charlie-manuel-/1
That’s great. That’s one team that won one World Series and have progressively gotten worse. Ruben Amaro is effectively killing all the good work Gillick put in there. That can’t be proven for another two or three years, but that’s how I see it. I can put a few words in caps for you if it’ll help get my point across.
But I thought advanced stats were the only way?
They are getting worse? Are you kidding?
Halladay
Lee
Oswalt
Hamels
How is that getting worse?
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 3:30 pm
But I thought advanced stats were the only way?
***************************************
Clearly you thought wrong.
“But I thought advanced stats were the only way?” And that’s where you’re wrong. Dude, even saberheads know that advanced statistics aren’t the only way. Stop inventing things in your head. It stands in your way.
“How is that getting worse?” Because they have a suspect defense, suspect bench and a suspect bullpen, plus an offense that depends on severely declining players nearing their mid-30′s, and there’s hundreds of millions of dollars tied up in all that. If they do make the playoffs, they’ll likely breeze through short series with that rotation, but can a team that old, frail, injury prone and in obvious decline stand the 162-game season to GET to the playoffs? Their chances decrease every year.
You’re right, you said:
“They win in part because they have a great scouting department. The other part is they use the right statistics when they look at that portion of a player’s profile. The sabermetric statistics. Very easy to understand. Scouting + saber >>>>>>>> scouting + traditional.”
What I should have said was:
“But I thought scouting + saber was the only way.”
With that rotation, I don’t care how suspect the rest of the team is – you’re gonna win a TON of games with that staff. You still have Howard and Utley on offense – Utley missed a lot of time due to injury, so I think that affected his numbers some – It was a little down but I wouldn’t be worried about him if I was a Philly fan. Howard really isn’t declining – he just had an off year, he also missed time with injury…in fact his OBP last year was higher than it was in 08 – he just had one bad year.
Vinny B says:
March 4, 2011 at 3:55 pm
What I should have said was:
“But I thought scouting + saber was the only way.”
***************************************
Dude really?
One bad year so far, but he ain’t getting younger. I can’t say with certainty I’m gonna be right because I left my crystal ball in my other pants, but as far as I can see, the writing’s on the wall.
Ruben Amaro is a placeholder for Pat Gillick. Gillick’s views and actions are what have driven the Phillies success. The book on Amaro will be read in another 3-5 years.
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