7
2011
My Obligatory Opening Day Roster Projection
An article by Craig Lerner
Seems like everyone from beat writers to bloggers are taking a stab at projecting the 2011 Opening Day roster, so here is my obligatory post.
Only 24 days from Opening Day, but things are starting too look less murkier and some players are beginning to solidify their chances of sticking.
The Starting Lineup
1B Ike Davis – Great defense, good power, iffy on-base skills, hey nobody’s perfect. I like Ike.
2B Dan Murphy - I’ve picked Murphy all along, so I’m not gonna stop now. He’s even made Collins a believer.
SS Jose Reyes – He should be the starter at least until July 31st. After that all bets are off.
3B David Wright - Mr. Met personified. Wright will lead the fight again at third and will make fewer errors.
C Josh Thole – He has no competition in camp, none, zero, nada, and I’m not complaining.
LF Jason Bay – Bay scares the hell out of me. Please don’t become an albatross, please.
CF Angel Pagan – Don’t tell Wright I said this, but Pagan had a better season last year.
RF Carlos Beltran – His numbers won’t be as gaudy in RF, but he took one for the team, he’s the man.
Final Thoughts – Like most Mets Rule 5 Picks, Brad Emaus will return home to Toronto so hopefully he packed a scarf and some warm gloves. As for Luis Castillo, I can’t stop thinking of the nightmare in the Bronx. Leave already!
The Bench
Mike Nickeas – He’ll back up Thole until Ronny Paulino is finally ready to play and if he ever shows up.
Nick Evans – No way the Mets risk him losing him. His bat and versatility are a big plus.
Chin-lung Hu – I don’t get what makes him better than Ruben Tejada, but apparently he can walk on water.
Scott Hairston – He got a major league deal, nuff said. Sorry Duda, I would have preferred you.
Willie Harris – Thought this was a bad move until I heard he plays solid defense at 2B too.
Final Thoughts - Castillo and Emaus are not versatile enough to be utility players. It’s back to the future er Buffalo for Duda, F-Mart and Captain Kirk – three players we will all see again. If Paulino don’t get his butt here already, he may miss a lot more than the first eight games.
The Starting Rotation
Mike Pelfrey – He will start on Opening Day, bad spring stats are the norm for him so don’t worry.
Jon Niese - Not ideally a number two, but I like him breaking up the two rightys.
R.A. Dickey - Just just call him Mr. Majestyk, Bronson’s got nothing on Dickey.
Chris Young – So far he’s healthy, throwing with more velocity and pounding the strike zone. A Trifecta!
Chris Capuano – He’ll get most of the action until July when Johan returns, then he bolsters the bullpen.
Final Thoughts - Dillon Gee and Jenrry Mejia will start in Buffalo and be the first pitchers called if needed. Pat Misch and Boof Bonser never really had a chance.
The Bullpen
Francisco Rodriguez – K-Rod is throwing in the mid-90s and is primed for a big season.
Bobby Parnell - The de facto setup man has yet to prove he’s up for the challenge, but it’s his gig to lose.
Taylor Buchholz – Yeah I’m buying the hype. I’ll even go one better and say he’ll ultimately be the setup guy.
Taylor Tankersley – He’s no Feliciano, but he’ll edge out both Pat Misch and Tim Byrdak for the LOOGY job.
Jason Isringhausen - I’m loving the improved curve and his velocity is up to 89-90, yeah so why not?
Mike O’Connor - He’s my dark-horse pick for the second left hander in the pen. Sorry Byrdak.
D.J. Carrasco – He’ll be the long guy and do a nice job for us. His two year deal makes him a virtual lock.
Final Thoughts - Rule 5 won’t save Pedro Beato from being cut. Pat Misch will join Mejia in boot camp. Manny Acosta is out of options and may pass through waivers, and if he don’t, no big loss. Byrdak, Boyer and Igarashi will also head to Buffalo – Hey, they need bullpen guys too!
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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Mejia, Tejada and Duda to AAA?
Looking forward to all of them making the team permanently by the 2nd half of the season. Though not sure where Duda would play whith Jason Bay on the team.
Assuming bay is on the team by then of course.
But the answer would have to be, his bat forced them to play him in RF.
Duda will come into play if Beltran gets traded.
Beato & Byrdak are definitely gonna make the pen over Tank. I’d like to see a 8-man bullpen. I also see Hairston cut. I just can’t see him on the bench. Could there possibly be a chance that the Mets & Jays make a trade regarding Emaus so he can remain with the team and the Mets can option him to Buffalo?
Maybe they can send them Hairston.
Don’t want to lose this guy,He’s one of our top prospects. So is Beato. Can’t see them returning to their old teams.There’s just not enough talent in the system to let that happen.
Unless Taylor Buchholz is pitching lights out, I would keep Beato. Just to have a young arm in sysytem.
Misch is out of options too for what that’s worth.
I think your roster is well presented and the reasoning is pretty solid. About the only thing I’d disagree with is that both rule 5 guys get waived.
It’s just a gut feeling but I think the Mets will keep Beato because to the best of my knowledge, outside of Bobby Parnell, the Mets don’t have much in the way of young hard throwing relief pitchers who would be cheap and under control for the next 6 or so years and I think Beato offers the organization something it really needs both right now and for years to come.
Emaus on the other hand seems similar in many ways to Turner who’s already here and at least in theory Reese Havens is about a year away. I’m unaware of any hard throwing relief pitchers likely to make the jump to the majors this season unless we consider Mejia a reliever (and I hope we don’t).
Parnell has options. They talked about him developing a secondary pitch. What about he goes to AAA as the everyday closer while he works on that and O’Connor stays here as they could use another lefty arm?
I am also thinking that although Emaus was the favorite heading into the Spring, he may be a goner, too.
Pat Misch=Nelson Figueroa=Brandon Knight…nice to have, won’t lose sleep over it if they’re gone.
Hu will be here because his future is as a utility player. They think Tejada could be a starter (as evidenced by his fine AAA numbers and his hot hitting this Spring). It’s better young, potential starters play every day, whereas a 27 year old who hasn’t ever earned a steady gig can be relegated to the bench to be late inning defensive replacement for Murphy.
Don’t forget Igarashi who, except for one appearance, has looked pretty unhittable this Spring (just as he did before he got hurt last year).
I agree with you on Emaus, I think the glitter on him has worn off. I dont believe Izzy has a shot, and they would be better served hanging onto Beato.
Great Picks I think Craig you are on the money. Those like Rubin and other think Emaus will be the one at 2nd base. Listening to Terry Collins talk Murphy is the one first mentioned. I think hes his man, or as said yesterday by the SNY booth its Murphys to lose.But he will succeed as he always has.
bay will only look bad compared to his contract.
i’d guess that compared to other LFs, he will be above average, but compared to other guys making 17MM, he’ll be a little below.
if you look at the FA signings since Bay’s, i’d guess that he’s not that much of a bust. Most of them have been so-so or a lot more expensive.
Why is Murphy already being annointed the regular @ 2B? Has he suddenly developed the ability to turn the double play? Last I heard he was still struggling with the glove work. Meanwhile, Emaus, while no Gold Glover, at least has significant experience at the position. Why can’t Emaus be the starter with Murphy being a super utility 1B/2B/3B/PH? I like Emaus better than Evans b/c he has better plate discipline and plays multiple IF positions while Evans is basically a 1B/LF.
From what I’ve been reading from these past few days from those at camp watching Murph and Emaus, there is no real difference between Emaus and Murphy’s defense at this point. If that’s the case, I think the nod goes to Murphy.
Can’t say I agree with you on Emaus’ bat over Evans.
Stop getting your panties in a bunch – this is all just talk at this point. Relax there.
I agree except for the pen. Beato and Byrdak over tank and O’conner.
other than that, if they actually stay on the field, it is actually not a bad looking team, with some real upside.
I think we can be a very good team,
We are going to have BOTH Reyes, and Beltran back. That is going to make a HUGE difference – If they stay healthy we are going to score a LOT of runs.
I’m a little worried about the pitching, but if they can just come close to what they did last year, which is possible, I think we’ll make the playoffs. Probably not the division because the phillies have such a great rotation, but I think we could get the wild card……
We just have to STAY HEALTHY, and we will be a very good team
The health is a big IF. Beltran is just chronic now, and Reyes is on his way to the “injury prone” stigma. It’s not his fault, it’s just soemthing that always pops up. A thyroid here, an oblique there. One of these days it’s gonna be a hammy or soemthing serious. And there’s nothing anyone can do about it. In a vacuum, the Mets are really good, but the roster’s been the same for three or four years now. If these guys were hurt when they were younger, it’s tough to imagine they’ll be injury free now that they’re older.
But, health is a big IF for every team. At this point you don’t know who is going to stay healthy and who’s not. For all we know maybe Reyes and Bletran stay healthy all year, and wright misses the whole year with injuries – none of us can predict the future, so lets see what happens.
Beltran though is not healthy yet.
Until he shows you he can play the outfield on a regular basis he is still not 100%
assuming he is here the entire year, I would consider 130 games in the field (with maybe 5-10 PH appearances) more than a full season for Beltran at this point.
don’t forget my 4 man rotation plan for the OF. They really need someone that can actually play productively for the 1 game per week or so that Beltran will be on the bench.
roster the same for 3 or 4 years? Not even close.
unless you mean just the 3 core guys on offense, and Pelfrey. Other than that, very little carry over even from 2009.
assuming of course (this better happen!) ollie and castillo get lopped off the roster, 5/8 position players are new from 2009 (murphy could carry over, at a different spot). 4/5 SPs, 5/5 of the bench bench, and probably 6/7 pen guys.
that is 20/25 (80) of the roster new since 2009, with johan on the DL.
I consider that to be quite a bit of turnover actually.
If reyes stays healthy this year it will negate some of that injury proned label he is getting.
He spent all of the 2009 offseason working on his legs and Reyes himself said that focus caused him to not do more OVERALL conditioning on the rest of his body. The Legs was his money and his priority.
Truth is most of his Injury proned rep comes from his early days with the Mets coming up.
he had all those hammy injuries early when he first came up until they hired a specialist to show him how to keep his legs in shape.
Will he be injury free? Well no player can do that!
What is the fascination with Byrdak? Have you looked at his career numbers? A career 1.556 WHIP, 1.3 HR/9, 5.1 BB/9, 164 walks in 260 innings. Some Mets fans are weird, heck lets just go with Oliver Perez if you want numbers like that. SMH
LoL when i read you talk about Byrdek’s past I can’t help to think of those others (not you squidoo btw) that like to say stats only show what you did not what your going to do.
I guess having a Byrdek in camp shows those that fear a FO that is only about numbers that maybe they shouldn’t have that much fear to begin with cause like you said look at his career numbers.
Clearly this FO must not be looking at his career numbers but something more deeper than that or at least you would think so.
Hey, if he were 24 or 25 I wouldnt have said anything, but at 37 is it safe to say his best years are behind him? And if those were his best years, oh my God what does he have in store for us this year?
Fair point indeed.
Squidoo, those are his total numbers. Against lefties, he holds them to a .202/.296/.380 slash line, a 9.15 K/9 ratio, .092 HR/9 and a 1.13 WHIP. Sounds pretty good to me for a team that’s planning on using him as a LOOGY.
Oh, one quibble. I don’t agree with your comment that Ike has “iffy OB skills”. He put up a .351 last season, or about what Reyes does in a normal year. And only about .015 below Wright.
not bad for a guy that did not have many MiL Abs (relatively), and had to deal with a rookie adjustment period.
very easy to see him bumping that up a bit now that he has had a chance to acclimate.
I took that to mean running skills not OBP. Not sure whose interpretation of that is right but you can say Ike isn’t exactly a speed threat on the bases. But good enough considering what he does with the bat!
Almost perfect, but ditch Tankersley and add Byrdak instead. I like your darkhorse pick, O’Connor has a good chance.
Nice going on Mike O’Connor, ignore the know it alls. O’Connor is ten years younger than Byrdak. Last year he had a great season 2.67 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.9 SO/9, and oh a 2.2 BB/9 and o.6 HR/9. Against lefthanders his numbers are even sicker. Yeah most Mets fans want to go with old man Byrdak. Same sentimental saps that wanted Julio Franco no doubt.
LOL old man Byrdak? Would you be calling Feliciano an old man if he was still here? Doesn’t matter how old Byrdak is as long as he’s still consistent & can still get it done. He’s gotten it done the last 4 years against lefties while playing for a crappy Houston team. Are you against Izzy too?
No matter who is in that pen for LOOGY(s), it’s going to be difficult coming out of the gate to replace 90 innings of work from the one man band that was Feliciano.
IMO, they’d better pick the best 2 of the lefty’s to = production from the lone Feliciano arm.
Well, maybe Utley ends up going under the knife, and is a non factor this year. Ibanez is already not much of one, so that leaves a declining Howard to deal with on Philly, and with no one behind him, anyone can pitch around him!
Braves have a couple young lefties though.
So hopefully Collins can manage the pen smarter, and not need to use 1 guy 90 times this year!
If our Starters could get to the 7th Inning more a guy like Feliciano really wouldn’t be necessary!
You forget about Perez in the rotation.
LOL JK
Todays two games say one thing. Brad Emaus made an error and this wasnt the firts time . The other day he should have been charged with an erro at 2nd base. His hitting is under .200. Daniel Murphy played a good first base and had 2 doubles and scored two runs to bring his average to .286. What does that say to Terry about Emaus chance to play 2nd base? Murphy now has the edge to all of them.
How about letting Terry say it instead?
I don’t understand this need to say who has the edge when the one who’s opinion matters most has yet to say anything at all on the subject as far as who has the lead or not.
Last I read Collins said by next Wednesday he wanted it down to the finalists.
Heck he may still want Tejada to be the starting 2b.
No one really knows.
Why dont you let Mets fans say what they want to say? If you dont want to play the spring battle game then dont play, but why dont you stop telling other commenters what they should think or not think?
If you dont like us opining or debating about who we believe should or shouldn’t win jobs, or belong on the opening day roster, you are welcome to just not comment on these particular threads and sit them out.
Jerry M expressed an opinion, great. We all know Terry will make the final decision it’s rude of you to insult our opinion when all we want to do is debate these things.
On one of my comments you did the same thing, but I chose to ignore it, and God knows you do it all the time to you know who.
Our way of rooting for and following our team does not revolve around your way. We are each different in our own way, and not one of us has a monopoly on who the best Mets fan is. We are all passionate otherwise we wouldn’t be heare taking every single issue to heart the way we do.
You know what Maniac in this case I will agree with you.
I think your right. Jerry simply was expressing his opinion.
My apologies Jerry.
I guess when I read him write “Murphy now has the edge to all of them.” I took it as him making a statement of fact by Collins rather than a opinion by Jerry.
All I can say is I’m sorry Jerry.
As far as this goes,
“If you dont like us opining or debating about who we believe should or shouldn’t win jobs, or belong on the opening day roster, you are welcome to just not comment on these particular threads and sit them out.”
I don’t recall saying anything regarding not giving opinions or debating. so I think you went over board to make a point but i guess you won’t agree.
“Our way of rooting for and following our team does not revolve around your way. We are each different in our own way, and not one of us has a monopoly on who the best Mets fan is. We are all passionate otherwise we wouldn’t be heare taking every single issue to heart the way we do.”
I again think you went overboard to make a point since I don’t see what you saying this has to do with what i said to Jerry since all i said was “How about letting Terry say it instead? I don’t understand this need to say who has the edge when the one who’s opinion matters most has yet to say anything at all on the subject as far as who has the lead or not.”
Again to the point of Jerry I in retrospect agree I should of not reacted the way I did I hope you as well can recognize that upon reflection of everything else you said.
I agree with you Jerry.
Emaus has looked like crap at second. Zero range, bad footwork, and hands of steel. The eggheads were wrong. The Toronto Blue Jay fans who were not sorry to see him go were right, he’s a man without a defensive position and that’s why they let him go.
Actually I guess I agree with you too Craig, there’s a first time for everything.
Don’t know who has the edge (my guess would be Murphy) but on a day where the Mets played two games with a split squad, Castillo never appeared in either of them. That speaks volumes, IMO on who won’t be getting the job.