17
2011
Final Decision On 2B Will Be Made By Alderson Not Collins
An article by Hojo's Mojo
After this afternoon’s loss to the Minnesota Twins, Mets GM Sandy Alderson talked to reporters about the state of the team and addressed some of the rumors that have been floating around the web in the last few days.
I am going to briefly summarize his comments, but if you want all the detail I suggest going to Adam Rubin’s blog on ESPN New York.
Carlos Beltran
Basically, Alderson is not ruling him out for Opening Day, but then said something ominous which led Rubin to believe it was a warning of sorts.
“It is fair to say it was unrealistic now for anyone to expect him to be able to play center field on a routine basis all season,” Alderson said. “At this point, we just have to see where he is at the beginning of the season.”
This leads to the question, If Beltran can’t play center on a routine basis, how could he play right regularly?
Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo
Alderson is very aware of how badly Mets fans may want Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo gone. Alderson said that although he does consider what the fanbase thinks, it won’t be the basis for his final decisions on either player. The GM believes that Perez has a very legitimate chance to stick as a left-handed reliever. He also took a shot at reporters, wishing they would find something else to write about.
“It’s a little odd,” Alderson said. “I think it does distract one from taking a look at the team as a whole and having a more balanced view of the team as a whole. It’s easy to focus in on a couple of negatives and kind of ride that into the ground.”
I agree.
Second Base
Alderson echoed what Terry Collins has said about second base being an “offensive position”. He also added that in the next few days the field will be narrowed once again. This could mean Justin Turner being cut from the spring roster, and after that who knows. He did make it clear that the second baseman with the best offensive numbers will not necessarily win the everyday job. That seemed like a knock on Castillo and Murphy who are the only ones hitting, and a vote for Brad Emaus who is having a terrible spring at the plate thus far. His final decision will be based on his offseason evaluation rather than the spring numbers, which again sounds like he’s paving the way for Emaus.
“This decision will not be made on what happens this spring, but also what we projected over a whole body of work over a whole period of time. Don’t assume that if somebody goes 3-for-4 they just won the job.”
I guess we will all find out soon enough in the next 5-7 days, but this is totally looking like a victory for Emaus from what I can tell. We’ll see.
Who Makes Final Decisions
This morning Terry Collins said he believed it was going to be his call on who will be the second baseman, and Mike Puma of the NY Post, wrote this quote:
“Sandy has never put restrictions on anything we’re doing here. We discuss things every day and know exactly where we stand. I know where he is on every player and he knows where I am.”
But Alderson erased any doubts that the final decision would be his when he said,
“Obviously, you’d love to have a consensus. But at some point, who’s on the team or not on the team, is probably my decision, with strong input from Terry and the coaches.”
There you have it. That’ll show Terry who’s boss. Just kidding. 
I’d love to hear your thoughts and comments.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
101 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.0 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 6.5 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Alderson loves his job running the Mets. Ultimately, he will do what he thinks is best for the Wilpons and, if it fits, best for the team.
Because of the staggering amount of money due to Castillo and Perez, every effort will be made by Alderman to keep both players on the roster.
If one of those two are dropped it will be Castillo because he’s owed a lot less then Perez.
Keeping Perez as a lefty specialist is not in the best interest of the club. If Perez was making a couple of million a year then he would most likely be dropped because he can’t start and you don’t want a lefty specialist in the bullpen who walks a ton of batters and has a fastball that tops out at 87 mph.
So, if Alderman keeps Perez on the roster he is doing it because the Wilpons want him to. He is not doing it for any big picture reason and he certainly isn’t doing it in the best interest of the club.
And, if Alderman keeps Perez on the roster look for the Mets to start shopping Reyes in the middle of the season because Sandy’s credibility on putting the best team on the field will go down the toilet.
I agree. The only possible baseball reason to keep Perez would be to see if he could do anything and trade him. That plainly isn’t going to happen. He should have been canned last year either in camp or when he refused to go down. There is no reason to lose someone who could do something in favor of someone who cant.
If he comes North Collins should put him on the mound for a hitter every game until he begs to go to Buffalo. If he does come to Citi though I won’t be there. I’ve had enough of this freak show.
Agee, what difference does the money make at this point? It is sunk cost, they are paying it regardless, it is gone, history, wasted.
And it is well, well past the point of being embarrassed about having signed the contracts in the first place!
\
Heck, if they want to make more money, cut them and they might sell more tickets!
Oh, and near and dear to your heart, if they get rid of these 2 pieces of dead wood, it will allow them to keep a couple of younger players that can add to the organization well past 2011.
Oh, just realized I was responding to the “other” agee. The heart comment was for T, not TL!
So now I’m the ‘other’ Agee? (only kidding)
Your the original Cuz, You had it first. I’m the other Agee.
my apologies. I’m relatively new here. Did not mean to insult either one of you!
Now I’m not even the ‘other’ Agee.
Stick – it would take a bit more than that to insult either of us.
No insult Stick, just fun.
You guys are giving me whiplash. Any other ‘agee’ out there?
stick, the difference is that if castillo is on the roster, you pay $6MM for him. If somebody else is on the roster, you pay whatever for that guy, plus the $6MM for Castillo.
It sounds crazy cheap to do this over what amounts to at or near league minimum money, but you are dealing with some really desperate owners, and they’ve looked mighty cheap so far.
When did you get a chance to mind meld with Alderson in order to relay his most hidden thoughts directly to the fans? This is incredible. What does he think about extending Wright? Next year’s payroll? The future rightfielder? Please do share.
“When did you get a chance to mind meld with Alderson in order to relay his most hidden thoughts directly to the fans?”
That’s what blogging is all about son. Looking at a potential situation – in this case keeping Perez on the roster – and giving an opinion of what potentially that move means to the club and the immdiate future of the team.
In my humble opinion, there is no reason to keep Perez on the roster except to appease ownership and their investment. If it is done then look for other things to happen as well.
I assume it’s ok to give my opinion – I wasn’t aware that I needed your approval. I didn’t get the memo.
It’s fine to give an opinion provided you are clear that it is YOUR opinion but to give your opinion and sell it as if it is something Alderson said is a bit unethical in journalistic terms.
Not saying that is the case with this article but it is the case in many other articles that have been posted here.
Such as the one where it was suggested that Collins promised Perez a roster spot despite him saying nothing of the sort because all he said was Perez will get a chance to win a start and failing that a chance to win a Pen role and that was broadcast as Perez guaranteed a roster spot.
At this point I would rather get rid of Castillo then Perez. Even if Perez makes team he will never make it out of April. . If Castillo made the team chances are he will stick around longer. Just give Emaus a shot and move on. Murphy is probably better in utility role and will be very good lefthanded bat on bench
Sorry, Mojo. I gotta dissagree. I couldn’t believe the Ollie signing and hate Castillo soooooo much, I’d rather cut my nose off to spite them, Alderson, Warthen and anyone who supports the bums, than play them!
We’re not going to win the division, no less a pennant anyways! So Put Lucas Duda in RF, Murph at 2nd and anyone with a left arm in the pen – LOL!
Barbella, you make sense. There’s obviously no room for you here!!!
“Alderson loves his job running the Mets. Ultimately, he will do what he thinks is best for the Wilpons and, if it fits, best for the team” – tlagee
I have a big problem with this statement. Alderson should be doing what’s best to win a World Series, not what’s best for the owners first, team second. What’s best for everybody is building a contender then you’re gonna make your money..
I happen to think (..and yes, before the first pitch is thrown) that the Wilpons made a huge mistake hiring this guy. I liked it at first myself to be honest but now as I learn more how this guy and his henchmen operate there is NO WAY i would’ve hired these guys. No Way!
Leave the plate discipline to the coaching staff and let them handle it on a individual basis and just see what you can do to help build a contending franchise with good, winning, smart, hustling style ATHLETES…not clunky guys regardless of their attitudes w/power who like to walk. Trying to build a winner based on the type of player you like based on a philosophy and putting that ahead of just trying to get the best guys you can regardless of ‘how’ they are successful is a recipe for losing and at best just so-so ball.
Don’t try to be too clever, Sandy you’re not smarter than the game.
“I happen to think (..and yes, before the first pitch is thrown) that the Wilpons made a huge mistake hiring this guy. I liked it at first myself to be honest but now as I learn more how this guy and his henchmen operate there is NO WAY i would’ve hired these guys. No Way!”
Like everyone else your entitled to your opinion on thinking the Wilpon’s made a huge mistake n hiring Alderson but just as you said you liked it at first in time you may like it again say for example liking them if they win a W.S. I have to be honest though the fact that you call the FO “henchmen” makes me wonder if your looking at this with an unbiased and open mind?
In any case If you think Alderson was a huge mistake I can respect that I just would have to disagree with it at this time.
Right. Hu, Hairston, Harris. Look at all the clunky, unathletic power threat Sandy’s acquired so far. What a joke.
you’re right, i forgot about cheap, bargain basement talent as well. But to be fair it looks like the Hairston & Harris signings may work out we’ll see.
Cheap, bargain basement talent is all you’re gonna get for backups when the farm is still a year or two away from being ready. And seeing as how some of those guys are probably going to have to start, well, you see where I’m going here with the lack of depth Sandy inherited.
Right because he could have spent a TON of money of bargain basement talent like his predecessor did and perpetuate the problem of how badly this team has been run like the last 6 years.
I don’t get the griping on the new GM. You’ll want to check out direct quotes from Sandy over on AA during a short interview with Rob Castellano.
These two below in particular should ease the worries of those who’ve dubbed Alderson ‘Saber Sandy’:
# In terms of his preferred player valuation methods, the old standard of on-base ability came up of course, which he pointed out he looks for even over power. In terms of the process, he likes to cast a wide net using a couple of general tools like OBP or WHIP and continue to drill down using more subjective things like scouting reports or power potential to thin the group.
# When asked about more in-depth SABR-metrics Alderson stated that though he certainly keeps tabs on the cutting edge stuff, he doesn’t regularly utilize the newer, extremely high-level statistics stating that sometimes you can ‘lose the forest for the trees.’
***********************************************
The owners are Alderson’s bosses. When was the last time you held a job where you went merrily on down your own road without any input from your boss and/or guidelines/regulations/company policy that you were required to follow?
Anyone that thinks Sandy does not have some type of constraints or limits set forth by ownership is kidding themselves. Even Cashman and the Steinbrenner’s apparent unlimited pot of money doesn’t always have the final word. Re: the Soriano signing.
I’m confused by what you meant there. Steinbrenner’s money did have the last word. They gave a top 10 closer contract to a guy they’re going to use as a set up man.
DMG, I think he meant that Cashman had no interest in Soriano, and the bosses made the deal over his head, similar to the notion that Collins and Sandy may not agree, but in the end Sandy is the boss and his word goes.
Yes, exactly.
Sorry if it wasn’t clear.
It’s more likely that Cashmen didn’t want to give up his #1 draft choice (especially in a deep draft) and allow the Rays to get TWO extra picks in that same deep draft.
One good pick now is going to be the difference in the NYY getting an Ike Davis that provides a solution at no cost or allowing Tampa to get him.
Tampa now gets two chances at a great young player while the NYY lost their chance.
Cashman knows you can’t buy a solution on the FA market for every need your ever going to have, plus he knows that that’s one less piece that he has to trade.
The pick we gave up for Wagner was 50% of Roy Halliday and happens to be one of the things this team so sorely lacks.
Losing Wagner helped the Phillies obtain two of their starting pitchers. Getting Wagner helped us close games two years out of the four we paid him to close.
First off Bayonne stop attributing what TL Agee said to Alderson!
Alderson said nothing of the sort about doing what is best for the Wilpons!
One more thing, Mr. I think I know everything about Baseball, tlagee said it NO ALDERSON………
Your hatred for the guy is so misguided it’s laughable.
I say give SA a chance to see if his moves work or not but the Ollie and Luis situation will be the biggest one this year.
I believe you allow the manager to request the players he and coaches want and let the GM have some input but Collins is the one making out the lineup and bringing in the pitchers from BP so he needs to be given at least 90% decision on who makes team.
I think, and Collins also, that Mets can compete this year but he shouldn’t be hamstrung with players that can’t produce, field or stay healthy.
I am hoping that SA does not let his “love” for certain players, whether they produce or not, to make Collins keep a player he has no confidence in.
Sarge, the relationship between Sandy and Terry will determine who has the upper hand making final decisions on not only who is on the roster but also who plays whatever position. Unless Sandy is more deferential than it appears, it will be like the Omar-Willie situation. Omar won, Sandy will win. It’s the nature of the beast.
I say give SA a chance to see if his moves work or not but the Ollie and Luis situation will be the biggest one this year.
I believe you allow the manager to request the players he and coaches want and let the GM have some input but Collins is the one making out the lineup and bringing in the pitchers from BP so he needs to be given at least 90% decision on who makes team.
I think, and Collins also, that Mets can compete this year but he shouldn’t be hamstrung with players that can’t produce, field or stay healthy.
We shall see what or whom our 2011 Metsies will be when spring training camp breaks.
I am hoping that SA does not let his “love” for certain players, whether they produce or not, to make Collins keep a player he has no confidence in.
I think the manager should certainly be asked for input, but the GM does need final authority and the right to overrule him. The GM is the one that should be looking at the big picture, including stuff like option years, service time, and keeping more talent in the system. A manager is more likely to focus on right now, right here.
Remember last year, with Jerry getting a hard on for Mejia, and the GM not telling him no?
Sarge you got it right,
Second base is Terry Collins’ decision, not the GMs. Terry is living with those guys for 7 months.
That’s on the field and of course there’s always discussion, heck Bobby V and Steve Phillips fought all the time and hated each other and i’m sure GMs have had their way in some cases in the past but the final decision is on who is the best 25 is the manager, that’s what you hire him for.
If Alderson over rules Terry Collins and demands Emaus play when clearly there’s a better option than Alderson is not acting in the best interests of the team and I think that would be unbelievable. It would be a news story.
No you hire him to manage the guys you give him. GMs are the ones determining the organizational philosphy, goals and long term strategy. Of course, you seek his input, but at the end of the day, Alderson is going to be held accountable if the Mets don’t produce.
i don’t doubt that geniusalderson is a genius…. but did he ever hear of right guard ? check the picture under the right arm pit.i think even broke freddye wilponzie has a few right guards in the locker room.maybe geniusalderson feels he is to intelligent to need to refresh himself!
Really?
yeah really!!!! perhaps proper grooming is not high on your to do list either. in the photo above geniusalderson is not digging ditches he is looking at something with a smug smirk on his face.
we haven’t played a game yet and geniusalderson is taking shots at reporters and telling them what to write about. is it any wonder he is sweating? hey geniusalderson u think because the owner want’s u to break this payroll down we are oakland.maybe in your mind we are small market…but this is new york pardner before the summer ends u will see what we are about!
New York is gonna kick this guy right in his johnson if he tries to tell everybody, even the reporters what to do. If this is what he does then you KNOW he’s gonna tell Terry Collins exactly what to do.
What the heck are talking about now?
someone forogot to tell alderson that NYC is not on the west coast. but not to fear, all those giving sandy a free ride will come to his rescue by saying all the beat writers are morons. They can’t defend sandy so they’ll revert to their standard name calling routines.
I’ve been calling beat writers morons for most of my life. Alderson has nothing to do with it.
Maybe their experience is telling them not to focus so much just on spring training. Maybe Emaus never has a good spring and others do. Some players start slow and heat up while others leave it all in Florida. We have seen that plenty of times. You never know who is going to start the season and who is going to finish it.
This is obviously not the team that Anderson and his “team” has in mind. It might take a couple of years for that to happen and not a month, two months or one season. How long did it take for F. Cashen to turn it around?
Four years. But that’s of no consequence to the Omar disciples.
Reese Havens is undoubtedly, at least in my mind, the best guy for 2B next year. what is troubling though is that he’s currently sitting out a few days because of what’s called ‘soreness.’ Looking back to last summer at Binghamton, the same term was used before Havens was completely shut down. I hope it ain’t so, but no one can say at this time.
des u keep talking about this guy u are the only one mentioning the havens kids name.if i remember u have been talking up this kid for over a year.it looks like he can’t stay healthy …i am sure geniusalderson will help him out.perhaps geniusalderson has some left over medication from his glory day in oakland. u remember the oakland team that certified geniusalderson as a baseball genius.the players on that team loved to NEEDLE each other.if geniusalderson thinks he can lecture the media,even if they are collecting a wilponzie paycheck like the daily news,he will be destroyed in a new york minute.methinks this summer is gonna b fun.
you should pay more attention. havens gets mentioned a lot, especially by people that really follow the minors. Probably the best overall prospect (based on production and upside) in the system.
he had a problem with his oblique, caused by some rib rubbing, which he had corrected over the winter (they shaved down part of a rib). Since that was causing the problem he had (a sore oblique that wouldn’t get better), hopefully that issue is behind him.
He was having a monster year last year before the rib acted up, and if he plays like that again this year, he will be up for 2B before the ASB most likely.
as i stated des keeps talking up the kid. he basically talked up this kid a year ago. that much i have managed to attain.i don’t follow the minors since the mets usually never develop a superior position player.it seems that for the past 32 years the mets have developed as many superior position players as they have made the playoffs. i wish havens well and will keep an eye on him.
I’m getting sick and tired of Des talking about Reese Havens myself. Has he even ever seen the kid play? The other day was the first time i even saw a video of the kid. I know nothing about him except for what I read on this site.
He’s gonna make me hate the kid the way he incessantly talks about him. Chill out Des.
Let everybody see what this kid does for awhile first..Have YOU ever even seen him play and when? And how much of him have you seen?
The Mets usually NEVER develop a superior position player?
Another one living under a rock
Have you seen the guys playing the infield for this team? Have you ever heard of Wright, Reyes, Thole, Davis to name a few.
thole is superior ..after a couple of major league abs….ike davis after one year…that to you is a good % after 32 years of wilponzie?u are either verry young or very ….
I would even warn Jerry not to jump the gun on saying Thole is a superior position player or even Davis until he proves that last year was not a fluke I would definitely not call him a superior player in my opinion.
thank u …once again the voice of reason.
The final decision will be made by Jeff Wilpon and reported from his lapdog Sandy Alderson. Who didn’t see this coming when Bud Selig forced Alderson down the Mets throats?
If Selig forced Alderson on the Mets, why would he be a mouthpiece for the Wilpons? What would be the point of sending Alderson?
It would be more like Selig telling the ‘pons, “this guy is running the baseball team. I am sending him there specifically because you can’t do it. He’s in charge. Keep Jeff out of his way.”
And you are what teams fan?
u forget geniusalderson was a world series winner with oakland! wasn’t that the same oakland team that was ground zero for the steriods disgrace in baseball? what was geniusalderson doing while jose was juicing mark?perhaps looking at his stats…he certainly wasn’t looking at his players becoming the size of buildings!geniusalderson won his world series because his team was ahead of the curve….steriods.u think geniusalderson is edgy now… wait till he has to xplain the wilponzie mob’s trading reyes or not signing him.
Is Sandy a genius? No…Einstien is a genius!
Sandy is a smart guy but lets face facts here he has an adequate resume with only one WS win and an demonstrated ability to think outside the box when he was forced to (Moneyball)
Does he use Sabers? Sure, why wouldn’t you? They are no worse or no better than any other stat that exists when used correctly.
The more data used for any analysis will always lead to a more comprehensive conclusion.
Is he all Sabers?
Hell no! No one is all sabers not even Epstien who seems to be the sabermetric poster boy!
As was quoted, the Sabers may be used to weed out the chaff and whittle the list of potentials considered but it is not the deciding factor in players being aquired or let go!
The question of how good Alderson will eventually be judged to be will lie on how he weights certain statistical criteria over others.
And time will tell how well he drills down and makes decisions based on his chosen criteria.
So far he has done ok with what he has brought. Hairston and the two Chris’ seem to be solid selections if they stay healthy. Pretty much true about every player we have aquired recently.
Emaus seems to be the closest thing to a bad selection at this point.
Emaus is a classic SABER selection! High OBP, Low BA and not great glove work. Most Saber guys will readily admit they don’t think fielding is all that important as long as the guy gets on base. It might even be true for AVERAGE fielders but when the fielding is overlooked that WAR (which most Saber guys feel is an “All Inclusive” stat) is worthless if he is giving AWAY outs in the field.
If you believe “Getting On Base” is important all your really saying is not getting out is important! Ok Seems logical but what about giving away outs with your glove? Isn’t that just as bad as making an out at the plate?
WAR when used in pitching would be a useful stat if it wasn’t team based. The numbers are dependent on the guys behind him making the plays that were made(Same thing said for avoiding RBI). Ignoring the fielding in the name of Offensive WAR means you lost some WAR of your pitchers because he has guys who will not turn all those outs that pitcher had attributed to him with someone else behind him.
Only time will tell just how smart Alderson really is. And a quick success will not really be proof of it either. The Majority of our team is made up of Minaya Aquisitions. a Win this year would be more on Omar than on Alderson unless Young and Capuano turn out to be #1 and #2 in the Cy Young voting this year or Hairston wins the MVP.
In three years (and maybe even by next year) we will see what Alderson’s vision truly is.
We will also see just how much money will be a factor in our team building.
And attempt to characterize Alderson’s vision or skill now would be premature!
I don’t know why everyone is in such a rush to anoint or indicte him.
If he is smart we will see signs of competitiveness in 2 or 3 years. Maybe even 4!
If he is not then he will be fired!
I say let them play and stop worrying about every fart and quote Alderson makes!
And if all your really going to judge him on is what he does with Castillo and Perez you should at least wait until the FINAL decision on both is made!
Cause how can you complain about what someone hasn’t actually done yet?
“If you believe “Getting On Base” is important all your really saying is not getting out is important! Ok Seems logical but what about giving away outs with your glove? Isn’t that just as bad as making an out at the plate?”
You’re right about that and it’s a good point. That being said, the propensity for one far outweighs the other. A hitter will generally have four PAs a game, right? It’s very likely he goes 0-4 and makes four outs. The best hitters fail seven out of ten times. But it’s far, far less likely a fielder will make four errors a game. It’s a bad season for a fielder when he makes what, 20 errors? A great hitter can make 20 outs in two or three weeks.
That’s not to say offense is “more important” than defense or that defense is “unimportant”. Just to say that comparing making an out at the plate and giving away an out in the field isn’t quite as symmetrical as you imply given the frequency of the occurance.
Yes it is unlikely but then again when you make an out at the plate it only leads to one Out (DP isn’t recorded in OBP and probably should be) and that out might even score a run but if you make an error and extend an inning the result could be multiple runs and that is far worse than one simple out in an AB.
Now to take it one step further,
The OBP selection system or the ignoring of fielding at one position may be a product of evaluation philosophy ie. If you ignore one player’s fielding in the name of OBP you also very likely to do it with the rest of the positions as well which would lead to the situation where that INDIVIDUAL is less likely to make 4 erros in an inning but the team as a whole is not less likely since the same critera and philosophy was used to select them as well.
It is basically the flip side of thinking get lots of OBP will get a lot of RS because everyone will get on and at some point there won’t be a place to put them.
In the case of fielding, if you ignore it it has the same cumulative affect, one guy makes an error many guys might also make an error and then whatever they do as a whole is amplified.
Now that doesn’t mean that high OBP means bad fielding, how could it as it really has nothing to do with each other.
But if you are looking at the potential contribution of a potential player you have to
take into account the affect the deficiencies will offset the gains.
Ignoring leads to IGNORANCE which can never be a good thing when trying to achieve a goal.
HR- METSIE
And attempt to characterize Alderson’s vision or skill now would be premature!
I don’t know why everyone is in such a rush to anoint or indicte him.
Metsie, I meant this part
“If he is smart we will see signs of competitiveness in 2 or 3 years. Maybe even 4!
If he is not then he will be fired!
I say let them play and stop worrying about every fart and quote Alderson makes!
And if all your really going to judge him on is what he does with Castillo and Perez you should at least wait until the FINAL decision on both is made!
Cause how can you complain about what someone hasn’t actually done yet?
I do want to see Emaus take position. Maybe he can be a Jeff Kent type and get better.
GMs make these selections hoping for a find and projecting on minor league numbers. Some players are better Major leaguers than minor leaguers.
Bottom line is we are going to require the team to CARRY the 2B position until such time as Havens is ready or fails and we decide we need to go fix that position.
I have no problems with what ALderson is doing simply because why go and get a 2B and then find out Havens is ready to be promoted and waste that FIX aquisition.
I don’t really care who they start at 2B right now because 2B isn;t going to transform this team into a WS player all by itself.
It is going to depend more on what the Beltrans, Wrights, reyes’, Pagans, and Davis’ do!
I’m just cutting into the biggest innaccuracies.
“Does he use Sabers? Sure, why wouldn’t you? They are no worse or no better than any other stat that exists when used correctly.”
No. Sabermetrics are decidely…DECIDEDLY…better than certain classic statistics. There isn’t even an argument there.
“As was quoted, the Sabers may be used to weed out the chaff and whittle the list of potentials considered but it is not the deciding factor in players being aquired or let go!”
Statisical analysis is indeed the deciding factor in aquiring talent at the major league level. If a guy doesn’t produce, you don’t put him on your team. Simple as that. The first thing you look at when evaluating a major league player is how well he produces. All that other stuff is gravy.
“The question of how good Alderson will eventually be judged to be will lie on how he weights certain statistical criteria over others.”
No, it will be judged on results. How he get there is important, but the primary thing will be where he ended up.
“Emaus is a classic SABER selection! High OBP, Low BA and not great glove work”
And again, you show you don’t get it. No one says low BA is a good thing, simply that BA isn’t as telling as we once thought it was.
“If you believe “Getting On Base” is important all your really saying is not getting out is important! Ok Seems logical but what about giving away outs with your glove? Isn’t that just as bad as making an out at the plate?”
Depends. Define “giving away outs”. This is part of the problem. Throwing around cliches and calling it insight.
“WAR when used in pitching would be a useful stat if it wasn’t team based. The numbers are dependent on the guys behind him making the plays that were made”
Except Wins and ERA aren’t calculate in WAR. WAR for pitchers specifically emphasizes Fielding Independant Pitching (FIP).
“Only time will tell just how smart Alderson really is.”
Alderson is smart. There is little doubt about that. Whether or not he is right for the Mets at this time is another story.
“And attempt to characterize Alderson’s vision or skill now would be premature!
I don’t know why everyone is in such a rush to anoint or indicte him.”
Who is annointing him? You should should be talking to the people who want him fired before the first pitch has been thrown.
“No. Sabermetrics are decidely…DECIDEDLY…better than certain classic statistics. There isn’t even an argument there.”
You can’t calculate OBP without those stats you say are unimportant!
I can tell you how many outs a guy made without any look at OBP!
It is a Pre-Package mini bite not a anything new that was not possible to discern BEFORE Sabers were accepted as a PUBLISHABLE stat!
If I know PA, HBP, Hits and Walks, I can find the same information OBP tells me.
WAR is nothing more than traditional stats mixed up in a jumble and compared to some PHANTOM replacement that has no stats whatsoever!
I can do just as much DEEP STATISTICAL analysis with the traditionals (AND MORE!) without ever once looking at a Sabermetric!
In fact Sabermetrics is nothing more than recipies of traditional stats and only as good as the stats that are included!
Take OBP. Is a player who only walks 3 times out of 10 (OBP .300) better than a Player who gets a hit 3 times out of 10 (OBP .300)?
Certainly not! The HITTER is better because walks can’t drive in a run unless the bases are loaded (3 guys on base) and a hit can drive in a run with nothing more than ONE guy on base!
But you see two players with OBP of .300 and you only have a 50/50 shot at picking the right one using just the saber. It isn;’t until you then look at the TRADITIONAL stat of BA or Hits than tells you which one is really better!
Sabers do not REVEAL anything new!
In fact they OBSCURE more than they reveal when compared to the traditional stats because it hides which stats and numbers CREATED the metric in the first place!
WAR and FIP are all dependent on the fielders doing their job!
A ground ball pitcher with the same WAR/FIP as a Pitcher who strikes out most of the guys he faces is not as good UNLESS the fielding is there.
One doesn’t need good fielding the other does!
One player is better than the other and you won’t know that unless you look at the PARTS (traditional Stats) that make up those metrics!
Without those traditional stats you say are no good there IS NO Saber!
Cause 0 + 0 = 0!
If you want proof try calculating OBP without using PA, Hits, HBP and Walks.
Can’t do it vcan you?
But I can tell you what percentage of time a batter will make an out without ever looking at OBP!
This is the point lost of most guys who follow Sabers as if it is some new reality that has never been discovered until now!
They are just Traditional stats, Pre chewed and spit out which makes it easy for those who aren’t intelligent enough to actually do math to spout something they were told is relevant without really knowing WHY it is relevant!
Kind of like saying equals 4 without knowing what led to it. 3+1? 2+2? -50 plus +54!
Just to clarify for those who actually have a clue as to what Sabers are…
The RECIPIE that are SABERS can not be more important than the INGREDIENTS used to make that recipie!
If I want to go deeper into analysis then the way to do that is to KNOW the base variables and mix them and match them to get the results I want.
But if all you know is the END RESULT, (the BREAD so to speak) you can’t duplicate it or know WHICH breads which seem similar actually have better ingredients unless you know the ingredints that went into each recipie!
Two players with the same metric will have different ingredients that went into that result.
So the end result is never as important as the ingredients that comprise the end result!
as I said before…
IGNORING leads to IGNORANCE!
Ignore the components of anything and you will not make the right selection when the whole seems similar on first look.
Two Toasters make toast!
Only one does it better than the other!
And it does so because the COMPONENTS of one toaster are better than the other.
Sabers are the toast!
But the things that made one toast better are all in the components used to MAKE that toast!
“You can’t calculate OBP without those stats you say are unimportant!”
RBI, Wins, Runs Scored, Saves, ERA, Fielding Percentage…should I go one?
“I can tell you how many outs a guy made without any look at OBP!”
With one stat? No you can’t.
“It is a Pre-Package mini bite not a anything new that was not possible to discern BEFORE Sabers were accepted as a PUBLISHABLE stat!”
No it isn’t. It is average based on several raw stats.
“If I know PA, HBP, Hits and Walks, I can find the same information OBP tells me.”
So, if you have all the information we use to determine OBP, you can figure out a guy’s OBP? Well, my mind is blown.
“WAR is nothing more than traditional stats mixed up in a jumble and compared to some PHANTOM replacement that has no stats whatsoever!”
No, it is not.
“I can do just as much DEEP STATISTICAL analysis with the traditionals (AND MORE!) without ever once looking at a Sabermetric!”
No, you can’t. the whole point of sabermetrics is because traditional stats are not deep enough. In fact, they are often superficial with little indication as to the player’s true talent.
“In fact Sabermetrics is nothing more than recipies of traditional stats and ”
No. Stop lying.
“only as good as the stats that are included!”
Yes, your outcome is only as good as what you put into it. Thats life.
“Take OBP. Is a player who only walks 3 times out of 10 (OBP .300) better than a Player who gets a hit 3 times out of 10 (OBP .300)?”
Ignoring the sample size issues, you’re example still falls flat. what are they both doing the other 7 times? Are they all outs? What hits are the second guy getting? Is he slapping singles like Castillo?
“Certainly not! The HITTER is better because walks can’t drive in a run unless the bases are loaded (3 guys on base) and a hit can drive in a run with nothing more than ONE guy on base!”
Unless it’s Luis Castillo.
“But you see two players with OBP of .300 and you only have a 50/50 shot at picking the right one using just the saber. It isn;’t until you then look at the TRADITIONAL stat of BA or Hits than tells you which one is really better!”
Y&es, you need more than OBBP to get a complete picture. No one has ever said otherwise. you need to stop lying.
and again, BA doesn’t tell you what kind of hits he is getting. You don’t just look at hits, you also look at the type of hits. Slugging, which is still flawed, is also used.
“Sabers do not REVEAL anything new!”
Yes, they do.
“In fact they OBSCURE more than they reveal when compared to the traditional stats because it hides which stats and numbers CREATED the metric in the first place!”
No, they are used to get a deeper understanding. RBIs, Wins, Saves and such obscure a player’s actual production.
“WAR and FIP are all dependent on the fielders doing their job!
A ground ball pitcher with the same WAR/FIP as a Pitcher who strikes out most of the guys he faces is not as good UNLESS the fielding is there.”
OK, I specifically told you what FIP was already. A strikeout pitcher will have a much higher FIP than a groundball pitcher who relies on his defense because of the very defenition of FIP. ERA, on the other hand, relies on fielding. Wins relies on fielding and offense and relief pitchers.
“Without those traditional stats you say are no good there IS NO Saber!
Cause 0 + 0 = 0!”
Yes, sabermetrics does use some traditional stats. Mainly raw stats like Ks, HRs, BBs etc etc RBIs, Wins, Saves on the other hand, are not used.
“If you want proof try calculating OBP without using PA, Hits, HBP and Walks.
Can’t do it vcan you?”
Of course not. Its the very defenition of OBP.
“But I can tell you what percentage of time a batter will make an out without ever looking at OBP!”
OBP is the inverse percentage of times a guy makes an out.
“This is the point lost of most guys who follow Sabers as if it is some new reality that has never been discovered until now!
They are just Traditional stats, Pre chewed and spit out which makes it easy for those who aren’t intelligent enough to actually do math to spout something they were told is relevant without really knowing WHY it is relevant!
Kind of like saying equals 4 without knowing what led to it. 3+1? 2+2? -50 plus +54!”
Ya, you’ve got no clue as to what you are talking about.
the whole point of sabermetrics is that the information is there for everyone to disect and criticize. Its not just wisdom handed down from On High.
Two players have .350 OBP
Which one is the better hitter?
Comon tell me without knowing anything else…
Can YOU?
EPIC FAIL!
OBP tells you nothing unless you know the stats that go into it!
Who is better an OBP of .350 10 RBI or OBP of .250 with 100 RBI?
RBI Useless?
Who is better the .350 OBP guy with 10 RS or the .350 OBP guy with 75 RS?
RS Useless?
Think that pretty much covers your ignorance.
“Two players have .350 OBP
Which one is the better hitter?
Comon tell me without knowing anything else…
Can YOU?
”
Of course I can’t tell. Because as I have said over and over and over
OBP IS NOT THE ONLY STAT YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO LOOK AT!
“EPIC FAIL!”
Yes, your posts are.
“OBP tells you nothing unless you know the stats that go into it!”
OBP tells you often the player reaches base safely.
“Who is better an OBP of .350 10 RBI or OBP of .250 with 100 RBI?”
OBP of .350. RBI require the guy in front of you to be good.
“RBI Useless?”
Yup.
“Who is better the .350 OBP guy with 10 RS or the .350 OBP guy with 75 RS?”
It depends. Is the guy with the 75 RS hitting a lot more extra base hits than the other guy or are his team mates hitting a lot of home runs?
“RS Useless?”
For individuals? Yup.
“Think that pretty much covers your ignorance.”
No, but it displays yours.
Now, I fully expect a response with false dichotomies and lies.
“OBP IS NOT THE ONLY STAT YOU ARE SUPPOSED TO LOOK AT!”
Ok then which SABER tells you who is the better hitter?
Remember BA and Hits are not sabers so which Saber tells you which is the better hitter smart ass?
“RBI require the guy in front of you to be good.”
Oh yeah so the guy in front of me has to be good for me to hit a HR?
YOU SAP! You Walked right into that one!
“It depends. Is the guy with the 75 RS hitting a lot more extra base hits than the other guy or are his team mates hitting a lot of home runs?”
Which Saber tells you THAT smart ass?
NONE! Again proving you haven’t a clue how to use Sabers just look them up on Baseball Reference!
And befotre you go and say .SLG…Tell me how many HRs a guy with a .450 SLG has without using a traditional stat!
Go one I dare you!
Can’t do it can you?
You should stay out of these things because you really are overmatched in every way!
GET A CLUE! Even Xtreeme doesn’t agree with you on those points.
Sabers are COMPLIMENTARY but they are not the ONLY ything that is important and they are flawed as even many of the popular like WAR do not take into account everything a player can do or not do to make you win or lose a game!
And to say the flour and water is not important as the bread just shows how limited your thinking proccess really is.
Without those traditional stats there is no WAR there is no OBP, there is no SLG there is NO SABERMETRIC!
Which makes Sabers much less informative than the stats that are used to calculate them!
Oh, look, false dichotomies and lies. Didn’t need advanced metrics to see that coming.
“Ok then which SABER tells you who is the better hitter?”
You use several. As I have said over and over and over
“Remember BA and Hits are not sabers so which Saber tells you which is the better hitter smart ass?”
Piss off, you’re not lying about what I say and then resetting the parameters. Hits are a raw stat and are used to determine a player’s production.
“Oh yeah so the guy in front of me has to be good for me to hit a HR?
YOU SAP! You Walked right into that one!”
Walked into what? You aren’t clever. HR is its own raw stat.
So, all you need is a 1-8 where every guy hits 60 HR. Good luck finding that.
“Which Saber tells you THAT smart ass?”
None. which is why RS is useless. If I want to know what his teammates are doing, I look at their stats.
“And befotre you go and say .SLG…Tell me how many HRs a guy with a .450 SLG has without using a traditional stat!”
If I want to know how many home runs a guy hits, I simply look at how many home runs a guy hit. Its a raw stat. No calculations needed.
“Go one I dare you!
Can’t do it can you?
You should stay out of these things because you really are overmatched in every way!”
You are incapable of honest discussion. You haven’t a clue as to what I’m saying and then you lie about.
When I call you out for that, you move the goal posts.
“GET A CLUE! Even Xtreeme doesn’t agree with you on those points.”
Xtreme is an adult who has proven himself more than cpapable of intelligently expressing himself. So why don’t you let him do that? and maybe learn from him while he does.
“Sabers are COMPLIMENTARY but they are not the ONLY ything that is important and they are flawed as even many of the popular like WAR do not take into account everything a player can do or not do to make you win or lose a game!”
Yes, they do. At least, they try to. Unlike ERA, RBI, RS etc etc
“And to say the flour and water is not important as the bread just shows how limited your thinking proccess really is.”
When have I said anything like that?
“Without those traditional stats there is no WAR there is no OBP, there is no SLG there is NO SABERMETRIC!”
So, RBIs, RS, and ERa tell you OBP? No, they don’t.
Yes, you need raw stats to figure out eprcentages. Who has said otherwise?
“Which makes Sabers much less informative than the stats that are used to calculate them!”
Except that they take the raw data and put into a context.
If you don’t even understand the difference between raw data and percentages, you shouldn’t even attempt to discuss sabermetrics.
As I expected you got caught and now claim I’m lying!
“You use several.”
Yes and you couldn’t name one because you know I would poke holes and show how they are not possible without the stats you claim are irrelevent!
“Walked into what? You aren’t clever. HR is its own raw stat.”
Who is using dicotomies and lies now!
SO I will ask again what did the guy before me have to do with me hitting a HR and getting an RBI?
And before you try to say I’m lying about what you said I will quote you so there is NO mistake about the crap you spewed!
Sap Donal said “RBI require the guy in front of you to be good.”
Pretty clear what you said and p[retty clear that you were dead wrong! LIES!
“If I want to know how many home runs a guy hits, I simply look at how many home runs a guy hit.”
So are Sabers better than HRs? NOPE! Then they must not be DECISIVELY better can they!
“You are incapable of honest discussion. You haven’t a clue as to what I’m saying and then you lie about.”
I know excactly what you are saying in fact I quoted it…
Your problem is YOU don’t know what YOU are saying because you have not quite grasped the english language yet.
You say RBI is about guys before you. I proved they are not!
You say Sabers are decidedly better than Traditional stats yet you have to look at5 those same stats you claim Sabers are better than to actually give any meaning to the Sabers!
But thank you for playing the role of the typical unknowing Saber guy who spouts numbers that can’t answer simple questions without going away from the sabers to get the answer!
THEY ARE COMPLIMENTARY numbers. Not Decisive ones!
They don’t work unless they are accompanied by the same stats you claim are useless!
Now go lick your wounds and stop trying to rewrite and recontext your quotes in a feeble attempt to back out of them!
You don’t understad math, statistics, or English for that matter.
You haven’t proved antyhing other than you are bad at trolling.
“Yes and you couldn’t name one because you know I would poke holes and show how they are not possible without the stats you claim are irrelevent!”
Slugging, Home Runs, Hits, Runs Created etc etc.
“Who is using dicotomies and lies now!
SO I will ask again what did the guy before me have to do with me hitting a HR and getting an RBI?”
Nothing. why would I look at your RBI total if I want to know how many home runs you hit?
“So are Sabers better than HRs? NOPE! Then they must not be DECISIVELY better can they!”
According to Sabermetrics, a Home Run is the best thing an individual player can do with an plate appearance. I have no idea where you get this “sabers are better than home runs” crap.
We really can’t continue this discussion until you leanr about metrics, statistics, raw data and the like. You’re simply not prepared to contribute.
Dude if you REALLY knew anything about Metrics you wouldn’t make the dumb statements you have made time and again!
I asked you to show me Sabers that were decidely better than the Traditional.
But you can’t name a single saber that does not RELY on the traditionals or need a traditional to EXPLAIN the Saber.
Runs created was available long before Bill James ever wrote a book!
The only thing Sabers can do that the traditionals couldn’t was make idiots who can’t do math for themselves be able to see what we DEEP STATISTICAL ANALYSIS folks have been seeing for a century!
Because the hard part of creating the Metric is now done for you by baseball reference where before we did it ourselves!
Go ahead and try to calculate any metric without knowing the traditionals!
Kind of like trying to make bread without flour and water!
Can’t do it!
And you KNOW this but you stepped into yet another conversation you really don’t have the stones or intelligence to be a productive contributor to and got showed to everyone again just how LIMITED and NARROW MINDED your brain is!
Seriously, stop, you keep showing how over your ehad all of this is.
You don’t know the difference between raw data and metrics, you don’t understand why sabermetrics are considered better than certain older stats, and you don’t even know what the stats are.
You’re the one that tried to claim that FIP relies on the defense behind the pitcher.
You keep repeating the same crap I’ve corrected you on over and over.
How many times do you need to be verifiably wrong before you shut up and start learning?
He IS incapable of honest discussion. He flat out makes stuff up to support his point of view, grasps at anything possible to support his opinion and then pretends that the circumstantial evidence corrobaorates his and only his opinions even when that conclusion flies in the face of all reality. He knows he’s right yet he has to make up or invent events to back his claims. His opinion is proof that he’s correct 100% of the time on every topic. No one else has ever had a meaningful point on any topic, only him. He debates only for the sake of debating, to prove his opinions are facts he will back them up with the most arcane, least likely possibilities, pronounce them as proof positive and everyone else an idiot.
It’s never about the topic with Metsie, it’s about “winning” the debate. Nothing is gained by claiming your opinion as fact yet that what he does. Nothing is gained by discounting opposing facts as not relevant, yet that’s what he does 100% of the time.
His opinions are fact, your facts are irrelevant. He’s right about every nuance of every topic every time.
There is only one thing Metsie knows, he, and he alone, is right about everything, but he’s wrong about everything else.
This from the guy who says some data isn’t important!
Or that a fielding Metric hasn’t been invented yet…
Ever hear of fielding percentage? Or is that one of those NOT IMPORTANT stats because it isn’t a saber?
Get a clue!
And Tag (you USED to debate) just reposts lists of Cherry picked history ignoring vast amounts of data and hoping by repeating it over and over that someone might be convinced!
Why not post your list of CAN’T MISS MLers like Jay Payton and Paul Wilson (both of whom missed!) again for nostalgia sake!
I mean your still living in the 20 years ago thread which was about 3 weeks ago!
Come on up to the present why don’t you and join the rest of the world!
“This from the guy who says some data isn’t important!”
Some data is unimportant.
I didn’t say there was no fielding metric. I said there was no truly accurate defensive metric.
Fielding Percentage relies on a guy sitting in a booth looking down on the play. Whether or not a player comitted an error is competely his opinion. Its very suseptible to the “Jeter Effect”. It also doesn’t take into account how well a fielder covers his position and several other things.
Those players were never claimed by me as can’t miss prospects, yet another false assertion on your part.
Not that facts matter, but Payton, (29th pick 1st round), went on to have the best career of every single other player drafted after the 14th pick of the 1st round with the exception of Troy Glaus, (2nd round), Javier Vazquez (5th round) and Keith Foulk (9th round).
You can only draft those players that are draft eligable. Some drafts are weaker than others, 1994 was one of those. Payton had a better career than all but 3 players taken after him through the 10th round and all but 3 players taken before him in the first round.
Context is something Metsie also doesn’t understand and at least those players actually WERE taken by Mcilvaine unlike Metsie’s claim of Omar drafting players for the Mets while he was employed by other teams.
Paul Wilson was a consensous #1 draft choice that every single baseball team would have taken #1. He got hurt, started only 26 games for us, that was that. It happens.
Debating simply for the sake of debating is, I guess, a harmless activity but sheds no light on the subject being examined and at the very least both parties should be aware that the debate is only for purposes of debating and not for any useful activity.
Now you do.
With the exception of this quote “Most Saber guys will readily admit they don’t think fielding is all that important as long as the guy gets on base.” since I know nothing that shows this to be true and your opinion on WAR which i just don’t know enough to say I agree or diagree with Metsie about it. I agree with most of everything else you said here Metsie FWIW.
It’s actually a point of debate. Most agree that offense is more important, but since there is no accurate measure of defensive ability yet, its hard to really nail down just how much defense adds to a team.
Most, again most, will agree that your best athletes should be up the middle, since they will have to cover the most ground.
Its all a matter of how much offence you are willing to sacrifice to get it.
I’ve read speculation that one reason Oakland fell behind and the Seattle is having trouble right now is the increase emphasis on defense which is taking away from the offence. Beane saw teams like Boston getting in on his strategy and got away fromthe plan Alderson laid out for him.
Not that this is a bad thing. You need progress and innovation if you want to maintain success. Its just that this particular attempt fell flat.
“but since there is no accurate measure of defensive ability yet, its hard to really nail down just how much defense adds to a team.”
Translation – because Baseball Reference hasn’t posted one yet it doesn’t exist!
Those of us who ACTUALLY do “DEEP STATISTICAL ANALYSIS” have made up our own metrics regarding fielding for years!
It is however not a complete metric since Baseball has not yet decided to attribute a stat that states how many runs were scored due to a particular error!
The UnEarned run is not specific enough to attribute to a particular fielder’s contribution to Wins and Losses. As a result the Defensive WAR is attributed to the PITCHER because unearned runs ARE collected and show up in his statline!
OK, smart guy, what is the metric?
Show me your data, your process and show me your results over a large sample size.
well, be default, if saber people believe in WAR than they believe in the importance of defense, since that seems to be a major component of WAR (and the reason that a guy like Ike can be “worth” (in WAR terms) as much as Howard.
Well there are two types of War Stick…
One is Offensive (and it is offensive ONLY!) It is used for the positional players but does not discuss their fielding in any way.
Then there is the Pitcher WAR. That does take fielding into account in a backdoor way as it attributes those numbers to the pitcher which would be fine if the pitcher has the same fielders behind him every time he pitches.
That doesn’t mean that a Fiedling WAR could not be created for each individual fielder it just hasn’t been created (or has and hasn’t been published)
FIP does not take fielding outs into account, so your claim is wrong. Again.
I’ve seen modifications of FIP that take fly ball\ground ball\line drive into account, but the results of the play aren’t figured, unless the fly ball results in a home run.
The whole point of FIP is to figure out how good a pitcher is without his defense. Which is why it is called Fielding Independant Pitching.
And Pitching WAR?
Nice try to switch to FIP in a conversation about WAR!
How do you think pitching WAR is calculated?
Well MNJ perhaps the problem with my Quote hinges on MY definition of a Saber guy.
You see simply USING Sabers does not make you a Saber guy.
But beliefs such as Donal who think Sabers are better than traditional so Traditionals can be ignored are the group I identify as SABER GUYS.
Guys who think that sabermetrics is an Analysis that was not possible before.
Folks who think that Sabers are a form of DEEP STATISTICAL ANALYSIS yet also say the things like Fielding is not important are the guys I was referring to. I mean how deep are you analysing if you are ignoring things or throw data OUT of an equation?
The rest who use sabaers but do not subscribe to it’s predjudices are merely Statistical fans. Sabers are just another tool used in thier analysis. They don’t throw data away, They don’t put Philisophical beliefs ahead of the data to skew the data to fit thier desired answer. They simply do the math and let the numbers tell the story.
The truth is the Bill James writings are really about TWO things. Yes he uses the statistical analysis and explains that part of it very well. I do not know that he intended those to be the “Be all and End all” of analysis but merely a demonstration of how the traditionals can be used/melded/weighted and combined to show more than they might all by their lonesome. Being a smart guy I am sure he fully expects people to come up with their own combinations and metrics to fit their philosophy.
The second part of the books (and remember he wrote a few) IS Bill James’ Philosophy regarding team building which I would define as BIG ball without the bunt and steal!
The examples he cited as a demonstration of sabers were used to demonstrate his Philosophy but I did not take his writing to be saying that his philosophy was the ONLY way. It was a pragmatic philosophy that assumed despite the HR being the best thing you could do you could not get a HR hitter at every position. Therefore you would get what you can and surround them with a lot of OBP so the HR hitter could drive him in. Earl Weaver used this philosophy for years before the book came out! So did Johnson with the NY Mets in 86! It works in those cases because the OBP on both teams were largely due to HITTING not merely taking a walk and inflating OBP. Those Hits also drove in runs from the back end of the order as well, which is why Hitting is better than Walking. It’s a small middling difference of opinion but not a problem with James’ Philosophy more a problem with how the OBP is being used (IMO)
It’s not a bad philosophy and it is not entirely wrong. But it is not the only way to build and aquire players. The problem is that some (less intelligent) folks read that part of it and ASSuME that the sabers are only meant to achieve that goal!
They are not!
There is nothing wrong with the metrics themselves but I do find probalems with his philosophy.
I’ll go into that if anyone wants but the monarch notes version is this.
Yes gets lots of guys on base in front of power hitters will work but power hitters don’t always hit for power which means an OBP of .350 or more before that power hitter is more likely wasted and stranded where if you get good BA all around not only will there be many guys ON BASE but many will drive in runs the power hitter will not when he doesn’t get a hit. Im my philosophy a .350+ OBP does not negate or is not the same as a .300+ hitter! Look at Emaus I think he is above .350 in OBP but he had a .200 BA which says to me if the pitcher just throws strikes at him he will not HAVE that high OBP anymore. HE is vulnerable and those stats you used to pick him can be blown away by the adjustment of a pitcher’s approach to him!
But if he does have that high BA then his OBP will likely be above that not just because he will get a few walks when he doesn’t hit but because he is even MORE LIKELY to get walked intentionally due to his BA.
A Pitcher can not throw as many strikes at a .300 hitter as he can to a .200 hitter!
But that is really a debate for another thread or post and if someone would like to discuss those philisophical differences please take it downstairs where there can be a complete reply chain.
At this point I am not a huge fan of Alderson (which may be a good thing for the Mets considering I thought Omar was going to be a great GM, and we saw what happened there), and here is why…true, the Oakland system became rich and fruitful under Sandy and then Beane, however, he didn’t become “SABR Sandy” until the new owners forced him to cut payroll. He was GM there for all the big teams too, so I’m sure (although I could be wrong)that he got a huge amount of high level prospects to reseed the farm after breaking down a World Series contender. Higher level then you would get from say breaking down a team w/ a couple good players and a few “has beens” as well it is major knowledge that the Mets finances are a mess which will make it even harder to get fair market value for trades.
True: Alderson has worked both sides of the fence as a GM small market and in Oaklands heyday, you could consider them big market… here’s the thing in my view, the financial world of baseball is alot different now that it was in the early 80′s when Sandy was building that 3 headed monster of an A’s team. I don’t even remember the term small market being used in baseball until after the strike in 94-95. Look how many teams can’t even compete since then. It’s a different world now, we’ll see if Alderson is up to the challenge. (BTW I don’t count his time in San Diego because he was the CEO not a GM.)
Next: I’m not sold on Sandy choosing who makes the cut, I feel the GM supplies the Manager with a pool of choices in which the on field manager makes the final call. I think that leads to a healthier and less tense clubhouse. I understand the need for a direction and philosophy, but then don’t bring guys to camp that don’t fit that mold and there won’t be any problems. Don’t you think that if Emaus gets the starting nod over somebody more deserving (just cuz that’s Sandy’s guy) that can create a situation. Maybe the other players resenting him, or Emaus feeling uncomfortable b/c he knows he didn’t really earn it, or even worse, him not listening to Collins at all because he now developed an attitude that he doesn’t have to b/c Collins legs were already cut off at the knees before the season started. And once one guy has that attitude, you know where it goes from there.
I feel that Alderson should publicly back every move that Collins makes, and reinforce that in the clubhouse. Now if they don’t always agree, that’s fine let them argue in the GM’s office or over a beer as long as it’s kept private and the players are not aware.
Hey, that’s my 2 cents, take it for what it’s worth, cause it’s probably not worth much.
He did dabble in some of the Sabers before Moneyball.
But moreso the concept of deep statistical analysis which does not mean SABERMETRICS per se but really just means looks at the components of recorded stats and trying to quantify them in a meaningful way.
You didn’t need Bill James’ book to be published to come up with OBP. I am willing to bet that some similar calculations were made long before then. The only thing is that Sabers (The FORMULA) has been accepted as a publish worthy stat but the calculation was easily possible long before Bill James ever wrote a single page of his book.
He did however convince some who were NOT doing such a deep look at the numbers to start so IMO Bill James’ contribution wasn’t so much the formuli we call SABERS but in advancing the practice of looking at more than just the SURFACE of individual stats, by combining them and drilling deeper into the COMPREHENSIVE analysis that may or may not have been done before the book came out.
Your absolutely right with what you say, and SABR was founded in 1971 I think, I’m sure people were putting together deeper stats before Alderson or SABR. I’m not even sure if SABR started out as an organization to research deeper into the numbers or not. I also believe Bill James just brought it more to the spotlight with the immense amount of material he published over the course of time.
SABR is actually more of a historical society. Bill James used their index of games to put together his new metrics. Thats why he named it Sabermetrics.
Yes, there were people looking deeper into advanced metrics for a long time. Bill James is credited with being the guy who pushed it into the spot light.
Oh, and by the way, I don’t think any of us will actually have a gauge on how good of a job Sandy is doing till at least August of next year, as long as all the Madoff stuff is finally over and there is some sense of stability with the owners.
It’s St. Patrick’s Day. Of course it’s going to be Murphy at 2B!!!
Paul Depodesta did an interview with Baseball Prospectus today. I found this particular response one that resonated well with how they are approaching the 2b position.
James (NYC): Hey Paul, what are your impressions so far of the players competing for the 2nd base job?
Paul DePodesta: James, one of the things we have to keep reminding ourselves, and by “we” I mean all of us in the front office and our field staff, is that our Opening Day roster is just that – a roster for Opening Day only. We can change it the next day and the day after and the day after. Though there’s a certain cache to the Opening Day roster, it’s really just one day in a long season. All that means is that the 2B job will probably continue to be a competition until somebody makes it their own, and I suspect somebody will.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=823
Well said in my opinion.