25
2011
FanGraphs Ranks Mets 21st, Say Darkness Among Fans Is Justified
An article by Hojo's Mojo
Eno Sarris of FanGraphs, posted his 2011 Organizational Rankings and ranked the Mets #21 out of 30 teams.
Quite honestly, I don’t agree one bit with his low estimation of the team and while I’m not saying the Mets should be in the top five, I certainly could make a case that the Mets could have ranked somewhere around 12-15.
The way they do it on FanGraphs is they break it up into Present Talent where the Mets were tied for 16th, and Future Talent where they ranked the Mets a lowly 26th despite pumping out several promising major league players last season alone in Josh Thole, Ike Davis and Jon Niese. Financial Resources (18th) and Baseball Operations (16th) were also considered, but I didn’t have as much of a problem there.
Despite the gloomy forecast, he says there may be hope in the name of Sandy Alderson.
So maybe a lot of the darkness among Mets fans is justified. Even with some bounce-backs from the present veterans like Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay, and maybe a step forward here or there from Ike Davis and Jon Niese, it’s difficult to move a likely third place team much further up than 16th in present talent. Even if you like Wilmer Flores and Jenrry Mejia a little more than some, the Mets system is not stocked full of top-end talent. And now it’s become obvious that even though the Mets have money in some respects, they also have money problems. Maybe Alderson’s small-market skills will come in handy after all.
You can catch more of Eno Sarris at Amazin Avenue.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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these rankings are a crapshoot. And I don’t think there is any viable way to be so specific as to rank them. That, and especially MiL systems can change radically year to year.
At best, they can probably roughly group systems (good/medium/bad?).
but, 16th means that the Mets themselves are roughly the mid point in MLB, so that has to at least be a .500+ team!
They haven’t come out with them all yet anyway. #21 out of 30 is about where we finished on the field the last couple of years. There are a lot question marks even on the so far healthy players here. Overall it doesn’t really matter where anyone ranks us. What matters is how we go about improving our Major League Team while simultaneously grabbing as many high ceiling prospects as possible and then developing them correctly. That’s the only thing that’s gonna restore our credibility.
where were they on this list in 2009 ?
where were the mariners last year ?
just want to keep them honest.
and still no mention of the loss of razor shines …
Not being a fan of “Fangraphs” I take these rankings with less than a grain of salt.
Darkness among fans is NEVER justified. This is still just a game right? This is way over the top, I expected more from them. (fangraphs I mean)
Almost every farm system ranking out there (BA,Keith Law,Baseball Prospectus and now Fan Graphs)ranks them in the bottom third of all baseball. Instead of denying it work to create a system that is in the top third!
A voice of reason and reality.
I have a feeling the reason we are so low is a lot of guys are in the low minors with a ton of room to either blossom or bust. And our top prospects in the upper minors have a ton of question marks. Hopefully once the younger kids start picking up steam our farm will start shooting up the ranks. And if the FO keeps it’s promise and starts going over slot and being more aggressive in the draft we could have a top 5 system on top of a 100-120 million payroll! Which would equal playoffs and WS championships =)
And prospects to get a frontline ace or two if need be.
I don’t think they would have to trade for one. Mejia looks to be a bonafide ace in the making. Harvey profiles as a solid #2. with Neise, Pelf, Gee, Familia, Urbina, Matz, etc. I think they should focus more on INF, C, even more pitching depth.
You might be right SF, if they come up big then we can trade our surplus for something else if need be. Tell you the truth I’m a little worried about the rule 5 situation with so many of these very talented but raw prospects in the App or Sally League. Not the worst problem to have but with 3 possible aces scattered between AAA and rookie ball, the chances of even two becoming true aces is remote. If it happens that’s fantastic but better build up the farm in case.
You point out a result of 2 years in a row hoarding prospects. Soon they are going to have a glut. As you note, they will have some pain at rule 5 time most likely.
I assume the plan of the FO after a season to evaluate is to make a lot more trades next year (deadline, post season) to reallocate resources.
I think your right Stick. In fact I’d consider the trading deadline to potentially be our “off season” and then expect quite a bit more restructuring as you say.
I think you’re right. But I wouldn’t expect anything this off season. The FO will want to have the draft completed. As well as the rule 5 before we see any trades. For all we know their plan is to build completely through the drafts and IFA. Then use free agency and minor trades hete and there to tinker with the roster. I just don’t see the FO giving up a bunch of prospects in a trade. Unless it’s for a stud in the 25-28 age range.
Those prospects have a couple of years to go before they have any value to speak of and some will fall off as well but their could be an outfielder of ours exchanged for a pitcher or catcher at the same levels. Get a better mix. That sort of thing.
you can’t keep prospects forever though. eventually they “age out” and you have to use them, lose them, or trade them.
remember when Omar got roasted for trading bell and lindstrom? that is exactly why they did it. Took guys they likely weren’t putting on the 25 man but who were out of options, and traded them for younger pitchers that were still under control for a few more years.
so, mostly likely this year they trade a couple for a ML guy, and a few others for younger guys and/or positions of more need.
Would love to see them do what the rays/twins did a few years ago (the young/garza deal). One team had too many prospect SPs, the other had too many OFs, so they each traded strength for need.
Yeah Stick. That’s what I’m thinking. That’s one reason I cannot understand how we could not have a decent prospect to stick in RF or 2B. I know we haven’t had much down there until last year but still there had to be a match somewhere. Like the way we got Hu. Not a future HOFer but at least someone you could give a shot to and put the money you save somewhere else. Much better than signing the wrong guy for too many years and then being stuck with him.
trying to balance the prospect pool never seemed to be something Omar was interested in. Or if he, based on results, nothing he ever acted on!
“Financial Resources (18th)”
…lol
This is really GREAT GREAT news!
We being 21st on FanGraphs is perfect!
They had the Giants at 23 last year!
LoL Good one.
So, who had the Giants in the top 10?
Well certainly none of the Saber sites…
This guy did however say they were #2 in the NL.
http://www.capperspicks.com/blog/mlb-baseball/2010-san-francisco-giants-preview-predictions-310310/
“What you see is what you get with San Francisco: great pitching and subpar hitting. It’s still a recipe for decent success in the NL West and the veteran bats at least won’t embarrass themselves. But, in the end, I’m not convinced the Giants will improve their offense enough to reach the postseason. A win total similar to last year’s sounds about right.
Giants Prediction: Second, National League West ”
2nd in the NL West. As in their division. He even specifically said he didn’t think they’d make the playoffs.
They did add to their O mid season but this year their D is a problem. Miguel Tejada at SS and Fontenot at 2B
Lot closer to what happened than Fan Graphs now wasn’t he?
No, not really. He didn’t rank them over all. In fact, he said they would finish 2nd in the NL West specifically because it was such a weak division
FanGaffs
These ranking have a very practical flaw: The information available at the time. When the first PECOTA rankings came out, they were assuming Castillo was our 2B and Oliver Perez was in the rotation.
They try and look at it logically, when not everyone who makes the decisions is logical. There is also probably a lot of information not available to the general public.
And of course, the season itself takes a toll. Guys get hurt, guys over/underperform and a lot of not basbeall stuff affects the teams themselves.
they also seem to assume that a weak performer will stay in the line up for the year. There really isn’t any viable way for them to account for running changes as the year goes on.