22
2011
Beltran Won’t Play Any Grapefruit League Games, Bay Ditches New Plate Approach
An article by Hojo's Mojo
Obviously, the Mets blogosphere was rife with articles and posts on Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo today, but it was this quote by Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal that really summed it all up for me. He writes:
For all the attention they got this spring, there are about 50 more important reasons the Mets will win or lose this summer. Among them: Carlos Beltran’s knees, Johan Santana’s shoulder, Jose Reyes’s legs, Chris Young’s shoulder, Chris Capuano’s elbow and Jason Bay’s power stroke. That isn’t to say the Mets made the wrong moves in cutting Castillo and Perez. Whatever edge Castillo had in talent over his competitors for the second-base job wasn’t substantial enough to justify the headache that would come with keeping him. And Perez’s audition for a roster spot was a charade to begin with. If anything, the Mets waited too long to release them, allowing them to overshadow just about everything else going on in spring training.
One of the keys to any Mets success this season will fall squarely on the broad shoulders of slugger Jason Bay. There’s a lot riding on Bay this season who seems to be spending most of this spring still trying to find himself as a slugger and continues to find a comfort zone with his swing and approach at the plate.
According to Steve Popper, with just ten days left until Opening Day, Jason Bay trashed his new approach at the plate that he spent most of the spring working on. He went back to his previous approach and was 2-for-3 with three RBI on Monday. He had drawn four consecutive walks before yesterday’s outburst, but I’m pretty certain that’s not why the Mets gave him $66 million dollars. Hey, whatever works.
It looks like Carlos Beltran may not play in ANY Grapefruit League games this spring as a precautionary measure in case he has to start the season on the DL. Adam Rubin explains:
Collins indicated the Mets have pretty much resolved to hold Beltran out of Grapefruit League games. That way, if Beltran landed on the DL, he may only have to miss the opening three-game series in Miami.
A 15-day DL stint can be backdated 10 days into spring training. And because March 31 is technically the MLB season opener even though the Mets open the following day, and because the Mets have an off-day on April 4, Beltran would be eligible to return from the DL for the second series in Philadelphia. That is, as long as he doesn’t play in the Grapefruit League. “We are conscious of it,” Collins said.
Beltran may play in some minor league games soon as a designated hitter, and someone will pinch run for him if he gets on base.
That’s all for today.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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I really hope that Bay’s new approach will help him clobber baseballs over the fence.
Two things. One, Jason Bay is a bust, I just dont see him returning to form and has that deer in headlights look in spring games. Two, Beltran wont have 75 AB this season. Embrace the reality. The good thing is that Duda and Fmart will be able to help and look good.
“The good thing is that Duda and Fmart will be able to help and look good.”
Now how awesome would that be? Fingers crossed that your prediction about these 2 come true.
Yeah but what do you do with a non-productive Bay? At over $16 mill a year he’s just as untradeable as Ollie was. If he doesn’t start to hit soon, his contract will be just as disgusting to Mets fans as Ollie’s.
I’m not so sure we will have an upproductive Bay. Maybe not the Homerun Bay of the past, but he’s hitting better up the middle and if he adds 20 more RBI’s in trade for 10 less home runs it’ll all even out. I say Bay will have 17 homers and 120 RBI’s. that’d work wouldn’t it?
Bay will hit more than 17 homeruns. I think he will hit about 30 this year.
Bay won’t ever hit 30 home runs again. Unless he DH’s for Texas after his Mets contract is up.
So why can Wright hit 29 HRs at Citi but Bay can’t hit 30? The same thing that happened to Beltran his first year couldn’t have happened to Bay?
So you’re saying Bay will NEVER hit 30 HRs again? Why? Because he hit 6 a year ago that means he’ll never hit 30 again?
Wright has already proven he can hit 30 in a pitcher’s park, and he’s younger. Bay is now 32, coming off a serious head injury and his only 30 home run seasons have come in hitter’s parks in his mid to late-20′s and he’s never hit close enough to 40 to prove he has legit slugger power in any type of park. That’s why. Pretty simple, actually.
I always thought Pittsburgh was a pitchers park.
He hit 36 just the other year. That’s close to 40. And he hit more on the road than he hit at home.
PNC’s park factor was right in the middle of the pack for runs in 2005 and 2006. Maybe NOW it’s considered a pitcher’s park because the Pirates play there 81 times and can’t hit.
And also, of Bay’s 21 home runs on the road in 2009, 14 of them came in parks in the top half of park factor in the league, so there’s that. He also hit one in Philly, and I don’t have to explain their park to you. Then he hit 15 in Boston, which is 9th in the AL because of RF. It’s much, much higher when you split for righties. So, is it fair to say that 30 of his 36 home runs came in parks that favored the hitter? Fourteen in the easier AL parks, one in one of the easiest NL parks and fifteen in one of the easiest AL parks for righties.
okay cool, PNC is in the middle of the pack. And it’s not a hitter’s park like you said it was earlier. He put up very good power numbers there. So now we don’t have to worry about him only hitting good in hitter’s parks.
Oh and how do you know that those Hr’s he hit in those stadiums wouldn’t have been HR’s in Citi? Just because they were hit small stadiums doesn’t mean they were cheap homeruns. Maybe you should look at how far he actually hit them? Instead of assuming they were cheap HR’s just because of the park it was hit in.
Look at the line up he was in in Boston. Pedroia, Youk, Ortiz, Martinez, Drew, Varitek, Ellsbury, Cameron.
Not every single guy scares you but their all good hitters you have to be careful around. In my opinion Bay’s season depends on having a healthy functioning Beltran in the line up as well as Reyes, Pagan, Wright, and Davis.
If we’re getting the same thing again from RF and 2B as we get from the pitcher, we’re not getting anything out of LF.
Who was in his lineup when he was in Pittsburgh?
So you’re saying it’s pretty simple that anyone should know that Jason Bay will never hit 30 HRs again Because of the reasons you stated?
I’m not saying that’s not good reasons because you did make a good case why it may not happen again. But it also doesn’t mean it’s true either. So why is it simple?
He can’t do it at 32, 33, or even 34 years of age? Or 2 of those 3 years?
He also hit 35 HRs while playing for Pittsburgh in 2006 what’s the park factor breakdown there?
He’s hit 30 or more HRs 5 times in his career including 2008 w/2 teams combined so he gets no credit for that?
Also who batted after Bay while he was with Boston? He was one of their most feared hitters right? And a feared hitter in big spots too so wouldn’t there be plenty of times he was pitched around?
He gets tons of credits for his production. I’m not taking anything away from his past. But those 30+ HR seasons came in seasons where he was under 30 and not coming off a head trauma. I never said he’d never hit 30 again, I said he’d never hit 30 as a member of the New York Mets.
All that being said, I never said his career was over. I expect him to bounce back, put up a line of around .260/.360/.450 with around 40 doubles, and 22-25 home runs. That’s really all he can control. The RBIs will be there if he reaches those numbers and the guys at the top of the lineup do their jobs. And that would be a really good season for Bay. And if he DOES reach all those numbers because the top of the order is doing their job, that could lengthen the lineup, then that means the Mets could see some success so long as their defense and pitching stay status quo. Hell, they might even pitch better than status quo if Young and Cap stay healthy and put up a fight this season.
It’s hard to pitch around guys when their in a deep line up. You know that Bayonne.
Well still, even if it was a deep lineup he replaced Manny Ramirez and I’m pretty sure Bay batted after Big Papi and Pedroia so i’m sure there were many times pitchers would pitch around Jason Bay to get to the next guy.
It looks like Mike Lowell hit after Bay a lot so wouldn’t you want to pitch to Lowell instead of Bay in a big spot? I think i would…depending on who’s hot and who’s not.
c’mon..knock it off
When he was 24-29? Aramis Rodriguez, Matt Stairs, Brian Giles, Kenny Lofton, Reggie Sanders, Jason Kendell, Jack Wilson, Freddie Sanchez, Adam La Roche, Jose Bautista, Xavier Nady, Sean Casey, Ronny Paulino, McClouth, Doumit.
It wasn’t as empty as everyone assumes in Pittsburgh, and again, He was 4-8 years younger and no one gets pitched around when your losing.
Knock it off? What do you mean, it’s a relevant point. As you know yourself AL line ups go 9 deep to begin with, so in a fully functioning line up there is no break. That’s what Boston has. They have lots of guys who work their AB’s. Sooner or later someone’s getting a pitch, plain and simple.
Like it or not our line up other than Beltran have big platoon splits and last year featured wild hackers at C, RF, and zero offense at 2B and then you had the pitcher. That equals less hittable pitches for everyone else.
So Jason Bay hit 30+ HRs in Boston because of the lineup? Even though he had Mike Lowell batting after him? Wouldn’t you pitch around Jason Bay in a big spot? I would. And I bet he was up in a lot of important times in games especially in September.
And hit 30+ HRs in Pittsburgh because of the lineup? That’s what you’re saying. You over analyze yourself into a corner.
Can Bay get ANY CREDIT at all for hitting 30 HRs? He’s done it 5 times.
If it’s not park factor than it’s lineups. Give me a break. I’m sure those factors do come into play at times but you make it sound like it’s the only reasons. Mets have a good lineup in 2011 but he can’t hit 30 HRs this year?
The lineups he was in with pittsburgh were AWFUL.
Aramis Ramirez, Reggie Sanders, kenny Lofton, and Brian Giles weren’t on the pirates in any of Jason Bay’s good years. They played with Bay in the 03 season, Bay played 27 games that year. Look at what their lineup was in 05 and 06 – Which are Bay’s GOOD seasons.
Oh and Sean Casey only played 59 games for them, and Jose Bautista wasn’t good with PIT, NOW he’s good, but he wasn’t back then.
and your argument that we had hackers at C, RF, & no offense at 2B last year is just plain silly.
I don’t think Jason Bay would have went from 6 to 30 HRs even if everybody on the team was healthy last year.
Last year was on Jason Bay much like 2005 was on Beltran so maybe he’ll be better this year
No Bayonne, I give him plenty of credit for the numbers he put up but I also dock him because of Fenway, again because of Citi, because of our line up (if he doesn’t have a healthy Beltran) and again for his age.
I’m also concerned about all the strikeouts as I am if he gets off to a bad start and begins to press.
Time will tell but I see him as a 20 HR guy tops which is not to say he couldn’t be a more effective 20 HR hitter than a guy putting up 30 but that’s how I see it.
Do you attribute all of last years struggles to changing parks, team, league, routine, living up to the big deal, hectic off season or what? Some, any or all of that and you expect what .280 30 100?
I’d take that in a second, I just feel .250 20 85 is much more likely. Hope your right.
Here’s food for thought. In 2009, Bay had the bulk of his PAs hitting cleanup. Ortiz had the bulk of his PAs hitting 5th. Lowell had the bulk of his PAs come from the 7th spot.
Now go look up who was hitting behind Bay in 2006….
I just want to thank XtreemIcon, t agee, Vinny B and Bayonne Mets Fan for such a passionate discussion about Jason Bay’s HR Potential.
Discussions like this is when I enjoy MMO the most.
I tip my hat to you all.
Vinny, Those Pittsburgh offenses he was on (2006-2008 when he was still in his prime) had better slugging percentages than we have the last two years and nowhere near what the Red Sox had.
To expect him to put up the numbers he did in our park and line up that he did in Boston’s is IMO looking at things with the best possible outcome. I’m not. I’m looking at it with a more realistic view. I see him at .250 20 85 but I hope your right.
No, you look it up. I’m not doing your research for you. You want to be educated, take the initiative. Whoever it was probably was average at best. I feel like it might have been Burnitz, but that’s just an educated guess. But good luck finding guys who’ll get behind your argument that Bay can hit 30 now after a concussion in a weak lineup because he did it once, six seasons ago.
Vinny, How do you find a line up from 2006?
If I can help.
In 2006 with Jason Bay hitting in the 4 hole for 134 games The most common person to hit in the 5 hole that year were:
Burnitz-49
Nady-31
Wilson-26
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2006-batting-orders.shtml
In 2009, the samples I took from several months all had Ortiz batting in front of Bay. It still doesn’t matter, depending on who’s hot and who’s not i’m still most likely gonna pitch around Bay to get to the next hitter when he was on Boston. And Big PaPi hit .238 in 2009
Jason Bay replaced Ramirez and was one of, if not, Boston’s most feared clutch slugger when he was with them and he’s going to be pitched around to. You guys didn’t figure that in when just blurting out Bay hit 30+ HRs in Boston because of the park and the lineup.
You do know that the green monster in Boston also takes away plenty of line drive HRs too right? So maybe he should’ve hit over 40 instead?
Well, that’s the problem with sample sizes. Bay played most of his games hitting 4th and Ortiz played most of his hitting 5th. You just picked the wrong games, or cherry picked for whatever reason. And I don’t care what Ortiz’s batting average was. It’s not relevant. He still hit 28 home runs and was power threat. He also had a .253/.345/.505 (.850 OPS) line in high leverage situations, so it ain’t like pitchers were begging to pitch to him and walking the guys in front.
OK so why through 2/3rds of the season do you feel Bay only hit 6 last year?
No I did not cherry pick, I did it randomly. If I cherry picked that means I’d have to go through many more lineups and then pick the ones that support my argument. I can honestly tell you I didn’t do that.
And NO Batting Average is NOT irrelevant. I hate even bothering with addressing such stupid, ridiculous comments.
He hit .238. If he hit .319 with the same power numbers then you’d day it wasn’t irrelevant but now we’re going in another direction and off topic.
I think you know well enough by now that I think batting average is largely irrelevant whether its .238, .319 or .419.
Beltran playing like BELTRAN in those 120 games is what’s important. Plus how would Bay having more AB’s helped us score more runs? He was having a consistently poor season right out of the box.
Of course, but I think he’s going to play like BELTRAN.
Bay would have helped us win more games because he’s a good hitter. He would have hit better if he played in more games last year. And even if he did play the same way, it would still be better than starting Duda, Evans and Carter in LF. And his injury gave Francoeur more at bats because Pagan was playing in LF when Bay first went down.
You said he could hit 22-25 homeruns. So it’s not possible that he hits five more HR’s than what your projecting him to get?
and our lineup isn’t weak.
The lineup is very weak. The same core guys have been in that lineup the past few years when the Mets have been near the bottom in runs scored. They have the talent, but not the production. Until they prove they’re not weak, they’re weak.
And it’s possible he could hit five more than I project. Just not likely.
I agreed with sandy alderson 100% when he said that if we got more AB’s from Beltran and Bay last year our offesne would have been better. I also think now having Jose Reyes healthy is going make our lineup a lot better. Everyone forgets he missed most of ST with the thyroid problem, which was why he had such a horrible start to the season.
If we have those three healthy we will be a very good offense. and yes I know Beltran probably spend some time on the DL this year, but I can see him playing about 120 games, which would be almost double of what he played last year.
I’ll try it again Vinny. What do you feel is the cause(s) of Bay’s poor season last year?
And if that happens, then yes, the Mets will have a good offense. No one is denying that the Mets have the talent. I already said that. But it’s been a couple of years now and for a variety of reasons, Beltran and Reyes and Bay and Delgado haven’t supported Wright the way they need to for the WHOLE lineup to be productive. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck……
Now it’s to the point where they have to prove they’re not a duck.
I really don’t know Agee, but I’m sure missing 67 games didn’t help.
If he drives in 120 rbi’s he can hit 1 hr for all i care.
Well point is I don’t think we will see the Bay of old and I don’t think we’ll see the Bay of last yr. either. So, hope for 20 plus homers and 100 plus RBI’s. I could see that. What do you guy’s think of Wright as the 3 hole hitter? I don’t like it so far. He’s a 5 hole hitter. Trouble is so is Bay. I’d like to see it be like this…. Reyes, Thole, Pagan, Davis, Wright, Bay, Harriston Jr. (or Harris)Emous, Picher. Now I know you prob. think I’m crasy, but I like Pagan in the 3 hole since we don’t have a lagit 3 hole hitter. Besides Thole hits well and is a tough out at the plate he’d move Reyes over and then Pagan being a very good hitter could bring him in + now we have another base stealer on. What do you think???
Against RHP it looks good.
just a thought.
Where’s Beltran?
No disrespect to him, but do you really think he’ll be a factor? I’m sorry but I just don’t see him there enough this yr. to make the diffrence. I hope I’m wrong, but I dout it. I think he’ll be shut down for the season by May.
I think he’s going to have a very good season. I just think they are being very cautious with him.
If you think Beltran will be shut down in May of a walk year, you are crazy.
at this point, I would rather see reyes/pagan/wright/davis/beltran/bay.
until ((if?) Beltran comes back, bay bumps up to 5th.
I’ll take a deer in the headlights that hits .333
Can the Mets use a designated runner for Beltran at the plate and in RF this year?
i am sure the mets would be happy if he does things like draw 4 consecutive walks during the season. barry bonds did that all the time and i bet his bosses didnt complain.
bonds also managed to hit more home runs than anyone ever when he didn’t walk.
i guarantee that the home runs made the owners happier than the walks did.
and those walks in games 6 and 7 of the 2002 series didn’t get the giants anywhere.
Albert Pujols walks a lot too. GOOD! Who cares that not only it’s his natural approach to hitting but being a future Hall of Famer pitchers probably will pitch around him every chance they get.
But hey..i’ll make the saber guys even more happy and walk Albert Pujols every time up if I were the Mets
I would give him all the walks he wants.
Bay, I think he isn’t going to put up the HR #s he was signed for anymore. I just hope he can adjust into a productive hitter without them. Maybe something like Werth was for Philly?
something like .280/.380/.450 with a lot of doubles, 20 or so HRs, and a lot of RBIs.
my fear is he sells out swinging for the fences, and his Ks soar while everything else sinks.
That’s roughly the prediction I had for him a few posts back. Maybe 20 points higher for you on the BA and OBP, but even a .360 OBP and .450 SLG will net him 100 RBIs if he’s hitting behind guys with similar OBPs. That would be great, and all the Mets need from him.
if bay puts up werth’s citizens bank park numbers in citi field, that would be impressive.
i’d be happy if he hit .290 15hr / 95 rbi / 80 runs scored.
t agee —
The defensive lineups and box scores of the 2006 Pirates for every game can be found at Baseball Reference.com:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2006-lineups.shtml
To get the box scores, click on the GAME (left hand) column.
Hey that’s cool. Thanks Des.
“If anything, the Mets waited too long to release them, allowing them to overshadow just about everything else going on in spring training.”
Since ‘everything else’ had to do with the Mets inability to fill roster spots with credible players for financial reasons – that might not have been a bad thing.