26
2011
2011 NL East Predictions
An article by Hojo's Mojo
As some of the predictions start rolling in from some of the major media sites, we will pass them along. This is the NL East as projected by the Star-Telegram.
1 Philadelphia Phillies: The pitching staff is MLB’s version of the Miami Heat, but with four of the game’s biggest stars. Even if the offense isn’t as good because of lingering knee problems for Chase Utley, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay anchor a staff that makes the Phillies the best team in the NL.
2 Atlanta Braves: Adding Dan Uggla was big for an offense that might have to rely on rookie first baseman Freddie Freeman to produce and Chipper Jones to stay healthy. Derek Lowe anchors a rotation that is solid but lacks a true No. 1.
3 Florida Marlins: The Marlins have the team with the most upside in the division. Outfielder Mike Stanton has the ability to be a superstar and Hanley Ramirez is as good as he wants to be. Adding Javier Vazquez should help an improved pitching staff that already has an ace in Josh Johnson.
4 New York Mets: Maybe they can be this year’s version of the Rangers. At least they’ve got the cash-strapped part down. But the offense has too many question marks, with shortstop Jose Reyes and outfielder Carlos Beltran at the top of the list. The rotation’s most reliable starter is R.A. Dickey. That’s not enough in the East.
5 Washington Nationals: The Nats made moves to offset the loss of Adam Dunn, overpaying for Jayson Werth and signing Adam La Roche. The offensive pieces are there for them to compete, but the pitching staff won’t allow that to happen.
The way I see it, the Florida Marlins may have a better ace at the top of the rotation, but overall I feel the Mets are infinitely better. And just as Michael Stanton has the ability to be a star, so does Ike Davis for the Mets, and we outnumber them in established stars with David Wright, Jose Reyes and Angel Pagan compared to just Hanley Ramirez for them.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
68 Comments + Add Comment
Recent Comments
- Metsie: on Lutz Is The Easy Choice To Replace Davis, But Satin Is The Right Choice: Because I can make nearly as much...
- BadBadLeroyBrown: on Braves vs Mets: Dillon Gee Opposes Mike Minor In Tonight’s Second Game: He kills every pitcher....has he put "Everyday...
- Bill J: on Braves vs Mets: Dillon Gee Opposes Mike Minor In Tonight’s Second Game: Gee was clearly running on fumes and...
- Hans: on Braves vs Mets: Dillon Gee Opposes Mike Minor In Tonight’s Second Game: The Fox announcers are learning how bad...
- RandomGuy: on Braves vs Mets: Dillon Gee Opposes Mike Minor In Tonight’s Second Game: Thats the second home run Gee has...
Need Tickets To The Mets Game?
Check Out These Great MLB Links!
Photographs From Gordon Donovan
5394 Fans Follow Us On Twitter!
1269 Fans Like Us On Facebook!
2341 Fans Read Our Feed!
1702 Fans Subscribe via Daily Email!
Hey will the MMO authors be doing NL Predictions this week?
Hojo, it’s time to dream. Mets are going to win it all. And I’m not even drinking!!!
The marlins have a few very nice players, but I think top to bottom, the mets right now have a better team.
of course, as with every team (including the Phillies) and season, which players stay healthy can really swing the results, along with unexpected seasons (bad from stars, good from young guys).
My prediction is that the Mets have higher upside this year (a better chance of making a run at the WC) than the Marlins do.
It’s amazing the bias of some of these predictions for example, this current Sporting News configures our dividsion identically as they site plausability of significant Chipper contributions while considering Reyes’ as iffy their most illogical consideration was overlooking adding the 2B with the League’s worst fielding %(18 E’s) to the roster ranked 26th(2010 rankings) in MLB fld% while swithching Prado to LF with only 4g of outfield experience while sinmilarly never mentioning the potential incr from a Bay full season over a 95g season. All very typical overhyping of non-NY potentialities while deenigrating NY options. Never mewntioned is replacinng dependable vet closer Wagner with 2 rookies with 1 MLB save in 5 SVO between them or moving onto FL where the losses of Maybin,Uggla,Ross being replaced by talented yet unproven rookies is considered even a speed bump; just as anticipating greater offensive production in NY from 1B,2B,SS,LF,#4,#5 SP(replacing 1-8 Maine/Perez tandem with 2 former #2s(Young/Capuano who were 6-4 in ’10).
One additional meaningful consideration for ALL 3 of these teams is they ALL are starting ’11 with different field mngrs than began ’10 Though Atl’s Gonzalez is a familiar face to their system & a respected, by me, mngr,or the loss of the Cox emtional drive from last season to provide him with a berth as a going away present is certainly an intangible worthy of consideration. Fl’s new mngr begins his first full MLB mngt gig with a team very heavily reliant on inexperienced talent, yet they dismiss the liklihood of a dip in W totals.
As far as predictions are concerned I believe with just an average # of injury issues to deal with in NY the 2011 outcome of the National League Eastern Division will be:
Philadelphia
Atlanta
New York
Washington
Florida
I also believe we will PUSH ATL in the last weeks for second place being nipped by them ultimately the last week of the Season.
I also propose giving Mr. Met an unofficial & well deserved hiatus from mascot duties & employing UNDERDOG as his temporary replacement in 2011. NEVER FEAR…. Remember ’69,’73,’00,’06 when preseason seers gave us similar reviews.
YA GOTTA BELIEVE!!!!! LGM
Braves 94 wins, Philly 92 (Wild card), Marlins 81, Mets 76, Nationals 71
no chance on the last 3. More like Mets at 86, and the other 2 below .500
I’m picking 76 for the Mets due to weak offense at times from four of the 8 positions. 2B, RF when Beltran is unavailable, Catcher when we face a LHP (if Paulino cannot play or play well) and LF if Bay doesn’t give us something along the lines of what we were expecting.
If you believe that Beltran will be healthy enough to play 120 games at a .275/.375/.450 clip and that Bay will do the same, Paulino will hit LHP like he has in the past then we could get by with whatever we get from 2B. I don’t. I think it’s very likely that through on again/off again managing of his knee Carlos will not have a solid consistent year and if he does could very well be traded. I think that Bay’s offense will be closer to last years than 2009 and include 150+ K’s. I also think Paulino’s medical report sounds very ominous and even if he is OK the loss of ST plus this new setback will lead to a lot of Nickeas. Emaus strikes me as a see what happens kind of guy rather than a make it happen type.
I see a lot of Hairston in RF, a mid summer Bay/Duda platoon (itself not a bad thing) and a constant watch over the waiver wire and other teams farm systems for catchers and second basemen.
I just don’t believe that this years team, without Jerry at the helm, is going to lose more games than last years team.
T, is it possible u could apply an even amount of skepticism across ALL 5 teams? You already explained in morbidly pessimistic terms your 76 W total for NYM, I obviously don’t concur; however I believe not ALL open questions will be resolved as negatively as u. unfortunately u seem to have used up all of your positive inclinations on ATL & FL. somehow adding the single worst defensive 2B of 2010,NL to the 26th ranked MLB defense accounts as a positive for Atlanta just as the substraction of Uggla, Ross & Maybin from FL’s 80W campaign warrants an additional vixtory in your estimation, yet u completely ignore, apparently replacing the (1-8 Maine & Perez 4,5 combo)with the two former #2SP Young & Capuano to somehow account for losing 3 additional gasmes in NY despiote getting increased abs from Bay,Reyes,Davis,Thole. Certainly past failures from ’06 through ’10 warrant your jaundiced eye perspective; however you can not possibly expect me to concur that everything Met will turn out crap while all questions Fl & Atlanta are rses & daisies..
You chose to discredit the Pauulino asddition dur=e to his curerent issues; however are u implying his use as planned Vs LHP will still be kless contrubutary than Blaco & Barajas contributed? Certainly, if nothing else, eaerly on its’ feasible that Beltran, though not the real Beltran, contibution wise should most certainly exceed the contributions from the ’10 version we got so little from. Even not looking @ Bay’s ’09 or prior seasions considering his vast # of performances in PNC overall his career rates of performance should over 162 games render a contribution nearly 30.4 HR & 106.2 RBI. those numbers are based upon his total 1,017 games played & doesn’t account for any productivity in excess of what he has proven capable of as a M:LBer. We are NOT talking about a player coming back from an injury that shrunk his productivity(concussion only shrunk his games played to 96) Based upon historical records it’s more often common that players signing their first “big” contract are overwhelmed by it enormity & swallowed up by their own inner pressures to outperform their capabilities. Throughout that same history the vast majority of those players bounced back to normal productivity stasndards their second year. T, anywhere in your prognostications did u consider the managerial effects? Atlanta’s no longer striving to reward Cox with his last berth, Fl toiling for a nondecript mngr in his very first full MLB season on thr hotseat whi;le similarly being steered by new hands, the Mets have a proven successful skipper not needing to be overly concerned over his past achilles’ spoiled vets languishing therough another season. Each & Every one of his vets this time around has a personal motive to exceed Beltran,Reyes,K-Rod. Though mngt changes are subject to heated debates as to the effect on onfield results, the simple fact is that all 3 of tyhese teams are in new hands & while Gonzalez is a familiarity in Atlanta he can not rely on the uplift the Cox emotional effort brought to that veteran team.
Sorry, T,; but I can’t possibly support any of your conjectures as I believe it is certainly reasonable at leat to anticipate the Mets getting improved productyion at minimum from 1B,2B,SS,LF,#4.#5 SP from 2010′s version. Certainly resulting, imo, in more wS than the 79 from ’10, not less as u purport. T, for all of these aforementioned reasons I truly angticipate less Ws for ATL & FL and more for NYM not by a lot; but at least significant enough to place us 3rd after challenging ATL late for 2nd with pergaps 84,85,86 WS sustaining no more than typical injury issues, geting at least 155G from Reyes.
N.B. I’m not including any contribution at all from Santna whom I don’t see pitching until perhaps 06/12.
I did go lite on the win total in my prediction. If Carlos cannot stay on the field or plays well and is traded we’re not going to get too much more than we got in RF the last couple of years. Bay could and probably will rebound but I don’t believe it’s going to be more than what the avg NL LFer does. I think the world of Pagan but I’m not of the opinion that it’s a guarantee he will be as good as last year. Dickey too. Capuano could be Maine. Young will be better than Ollie but how much? 2B could very easily be the same for us and if Paulino has had NO ST and who knows about this medical thing? Thole (IMO) will never hit LHP and a Thole/Nickeas tandem is kind of lite and who’s backing them up?
You could say this about any team but when you look at our lineup/bench we’re one recurrence of an existing injury, one pulled quad and one fastball of the hand away from a lineup of Harris, Hairston, Wright, Davis, Bay, Thole, Emaus, and Hu. without a dominant pitching staff to keep us in it.
Label it pessamistic, realistic or anything else you want. I just hope I’m wrong. Either way I’ll be there rooting all the way, enjoying the good times and I fell whatever happens this year better times are on the way.
If things do go as well as you could hope, we could add a dozen wins to my prediction but rarely does everything fall just right. More like a combo, some good, some not so good.
No one would be happier than me to have my prediction be way off ’62 and if it is I fully expect to hear about it from you my friend early and often and that’s not something I would mind in the least.
T, I CAN ONLY IMAGINE HOW NEGATIVE U’D BE IF THESE FACTORS WERE PINNED UNDER OUR TEAM THIS SEASON:
*FEATURING THE OLDEST ROTATION
* ADDING THE SINGLE WORST FIELDING 2B(18-Es) TO THE 4th WORST FIELDING TEAM DEFENSE(#26 IN ’10) FROM THE PRIOR YR
*REPLACING AN ALLSTAR CLOSER WITH 2 UNPROVEN OPTIONS WITH A COMBINED MLB SAVES RECORD OF 2 SV IN 7 SVO.(OBVIOUSLY KIMBREL/VENTNER IS A TAD SHORT OF McDOWELL/OROSCO, DID I MENTION THEY’RE BOTH BABIES?
*REPLACING A HOF CALIBER MNGR WITH A RELATIVELY INEXPERIENCED ONE WITH PAST PERSONNEL ISSUES WITH HIS KEY PLAYER
*A 39YR OLD #3 HITTER @ 3B WITH ALOU LEVEL GP OVER PAST 6 SEASONS(<100GP)
CERTAINLY I BELIEVE U WOULD BE APOPLECTIC IF ALL THOSE WORE BLUE & ORANGE; BUT DRESS THEM IN FEATHERS & EVERYTHING IS HONKY DOREY THEY'RE STORMING THE CBP GASTES TAKING THE DIVISION! WHAT! U'D HAVE NYM BURIED UNDER THOSE CONDITIONS & U KNOW IT!
T, LET'S NOT FORGET THAT ALONGSIDE THAT IRONGLOVED 2B WITH MIMIMUM EFFECTIVE RANGE THEY'LL BE FEATURING THEIR LATEST ROOKIE(1B).
AS FOR THIS CONJECTURE,"we’re one recurrence of an existing injury, one pulled quad and one fastball of the hand away from a lineup of Harris, Hairston, Wright, Davis, Bay, Thole, Emaus, and Hu. without a dominant pitching staff to keep us in it."
CASE U HADN'T NOTICED PUT EACH OF THOSE CONSEQUENCES APPLIED TO ANY OF THE 5 IN THE EAST & U HAVE DISASTER! CERTAINLY SOMETHING MUST BE ASKEW IN PHL IF THEIR SOLUTION TO UTLEY'S DISAPPEARANCE IS SOME COMBO OF 2 FORMER NYM REJECTS. WHAT? NO MINOR LEAGUE PHENOM? AVAILABLE?(MUST'VE DEALT THEM FOR THAT PITCHING)
_____________________________________________________________________
BACK TO US, T, I BELIEVE THE PROPER COMPARISON ALIGNMENT IN THE MAINE(R), PEREZ(L) REPLACEMENT CONSIDERATION IS YOUNG(R) FOR MAINE & CAPUANO(L) OBVIOUSLY FOR PEREZ. BOTH CHRISES ARE FORMER #2s YOUNG BEHIND PEAVY & CAPUANO BEHIND SHEETS THEN SABATHIA AS FAR AS THEIR USUAL COMPETITION LEVEL IS CIONCERNED. AS LONG AS THEY REMAIN HEALTHY(THE QUALIFYING REFRAIN EQUALLY APPLIED THROUGHOUT BASEBALL) ISN'T IT JUST AS TRUE TO APPLY THAT QUALIFIER U'LL LIKELY TAKE EXCEPTION TO ON YOUNG & CAPUANO & APPLY IT JUST AS EFFECTIVELY TO HALLADAY & LEE(OPPOSITE SPECTRUM) CERTAINLY ONLY IF THOSE 2 ARE HEALTHY ARE THE PHILLIES AS FORBODING AS THEY PRESENTLY APPEAR, WHAT IF, GOD FORBID, HALLADAY GETS MATLACKED TAKING A LINER OFF THE CRANIUM OR LEE'S BACK FINALLY GIVES OUT? OR HUDSON TOPPLES & LOWE'S SINKER LEVELS? THESE ARE ALL CONSIDERATIONS THAT MAKE A SEASON A CRAPSHOOT THE BEST NEWS IS REYES IS HEALTHY & HIS TRACK RECORD INDICATES THAT AFTER HIS SECOND SEASON INJURIES DIDN'T REOCCUR AS HIS ORIG HAMSTRING ISSUES WERE ALL MUSCULAR RELATED AS IN HAMSTRING MUSCLE STRAINS,PULLS & THE '09 ISSUE WAS A RARE UNRELATED HAMSTRING TENDON ISSUE, THAT TENDON WAS SURGICALLY REMOVED WHILE HIS OTHER D/L STINTS IN HIS CAREER WERE A SPIKED HAND('06), A HYPER-THYROID CAUSED BY DIETARY ISSUES('10) & AN OBLIQUE STRAIN('10) SUDDENLY FOR NO SUBSTANTIATED RATIONALE U PULL A QUAD ISSUE OUT OF YOUR "DESPERATE TO BE NEGATIVE" BAG? IS THAT EVEN A LOGICAL CONSIDERATION? WHERE'S YOUR POSITIVE CONSIDERATION FOR BOTH YOUNG & CAPY'S HAVING A JUSTIFIED PERIOD OF TIME SINCE THEIR RESPECTIVE SURGICAL PROCEDURES WITH BOTH PITCHING EFFECTIVE RETURNS IN LIMITED APPEARANCES IN 2010? REMEMBER THEY AREN'T SLATED 1,2; BUT 4,5 NEITHER IS PAT MISCH_ISH BOTH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED EASILY THE BEST 4,5 SINCE '86(FERNANDEZ,AGUILLERA) IN FLUSHING. CORA,TATIS,BLANCO TYPES AVOIDED HARRIS,HAIRSTON PAULINO'S EMBRACED.
CERTAINLY LIKE ALOU, IT'S LIKELY BELTRAN WILL BE MIA CONSIDERABLY; HOWEVER HAIRSTON OR HARRIS IN RF IS NOT BY ANY STRETCH EQUIVILENT TO TATIS,MURPHY,EVANS IN LF SO OFTEN! LOOK UNDER MORE ROCKS T, U'LL SEE WHILE WE CERTAINLY AREN'T A CONTENDING APPEARANCE TEAM AS MINAYA ATTEMPTED TO CREATE; BUT CERTAINLY A MORE STEADY, WORKMANLIKE COMPETITOR COMPRISED OF GUYS WHO KNOW THEY NEED TO DO MORE THAN SHOW UP.
NO NOT ALL THE NYM QUESTIONS WILL HAVE ROSEY ANSWERS NO ONE TEAM'S WILL; BUT NEITHER WILL ANY OF THEM BE BELEAGURED BY CONSTANT NEGATIVE FAILURES, IT'S JUST NOT REASONABLE BASED UPON WHAT WE'VE SEEN SO FAR IN CHANGES. NO BIG NAME ADDITIONS BEYOND BAY FOR MORE THAN 95G & REYES FOR MORE THAN 140G EVEB A POSSIBILITY OF A BELTRAN FOR MORE THAN A MONTH OF GAMES, EVEN K-ROD MAY PUT IN A FULL SEASON'S EFFORT. THOSE, MY FRIEND ARE CERTAINLY ADDITIONS BY ANY MEASURE! I CERTAINLY DO NOT BELIEVE I'M BEING UNREALISTIC IN ANTICIPATING MORE PRODUCTIVITY FROM 1B,2B,SS,LF,#4,#5SP DO U? NOTE I'M NOT INMPLYING CAREER HIGHS FROM ANY; MERELY CAREER AVERAGE CONSERVATIVELY I BELIEVE A .260 4,5HR,60RBI SEASON FROM EMAUS IS REASONABLE; BUT EVEN THAT SMALL ANTICAPATORY AMOUNT CONSTUITUES A VALID INCREASE OVER CASTILLO IN '10. T, I'M CERTAINLY NOT PROJECTING CONTENTION; BUT MERE COMPETITIVENESS AS I BELIEVE WHAT WE HAVE DONE THIS OFFSEASON SURPASES FLORIDA';S ANTICIPATED RESULTS DERIVED FROM REMOVING MAYBIN,ROSS & UGGLA IN FAVOR OF COGHLAN,STANTON,INFANTE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE INSIGNIFICANT DELTA BETWEEN AN 80W SEASON(FL) & A 79 WIN(NY) SEASON FROM '10. TO ANTICIPATE ALL THESE ALTERATIONS ADDING TO FL & ATL IS FAR MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN PROJECTING NYM TO WIN 1 LESS IS PESSIMISTIC.
T, U PROJECTED PESSIMISTICLY THAT HARRIS,HAIRSTON,WRIGHT,DAVIS,BAY,THOLE,EMAUS,HU LINEUP; BUT LET'S APPLY THE EXACT SAME LOGIC AT YOUR DIV WINNER ATLANTA WITH SAME INJURIES RESULTING IN McLOUTH,McCANN,UGGLA,GONZALEZ,CALLUP,GONZALEZ,FREEMAN,CALLUP RECALLING FREEMAN & HEYWARD ALREADY CALLEDUP. ROTATION?
WITH THAT LINEUP BEHIND THEM ARE U THAT ENTRALLED WITH
LOWE
HANSON
HUDSON
JURJENS
BEACHY
ARE THOSE 5 DOMINANT???????????? ARE THEY SO MUCH BETTER THAN OURS?
PELFREY
DICKEY
NIESE
YOUNG
CAPUANO
BE HONEST. WE SUFFEREED ONLY GETTING A 1-8 RECORD OUT OF 4,5(MAINE,PEREZ) IN '10 DO U REALLY BELIEVE THAT ISN'T OUR BEST SHOT AT IMPROVEMENT THIS YEAR?
UNLIKE U, MY FRIEND I LEAVE THE PAST BAGGAGE IN THE TRUNK BEHIND ME & DON'T OPEN IT EVERY CHANCE I GET. T, WHAT GOOD IS ANY NEW START IF YOU ARE FOREVER CONJURING UP PAST FOIBLES TO APPLY ONTO THE FUTURE? DO U REALLY BELIEVE WE ARE THE SINGLARLY MOST INESPT FRANCHISE IN NLE? REMEMBER, NOW WE EXCEED EVERY EXPANSION FRANCHISE IN POSTSEASON APPEARANCES, IT CERTAINLY CAN'T SUCK AS MUCH AS U LIKE TO BELIEVE.
RELAX, I'LL BE TOO BUSY APPRECIATING GOOD FORTUNE FOR A CHANGE TO BE BOTHERED DISSING U WITH "I TOLD U SOS"…SMILE, MY FRIEND THEC SEASON IS UPON US & WE'RE IN FIRST PLACE TIED WITH THE BEST/WORST RECORD IN BASEBALL! NO ONE IS BETTER. SANDY'S STILL A BREATH OF FRESH AIR & TC IS A GENIUS!
’62, I am optimistic over the the direction the team has taken but I just don’t see it paying off in wins this year.
There was a lot that went right last season that might not go as right this year. Dickey 175 IP 2.48 ERA, Angel’s great all around play. Either or both could have some regression, we’re not talking about guys who have had a long history of success.
I think it’s very reasonable to think that Beltran could play very well and be traded, or not be able to get into a groove because of having to manage his knees day to day.
Either one of those possibilities leads us to no getting much from RF this year.
Bay hitting .250/.350/.450 would be an improvement but is still ordinary for LF. I think that is about where he will wind up.
I like Thole but for us to get GOOD offensive production from catcher, the 1/3rd of games we face a LHP it is vital that Paulino do against them what he has done in the past.
Paulino has now not had any ST and in fact has been shut down from doing anything. This can’t help him in April and May (remember Reyes) and I’m concerned about him and his prospects for getting on the field at all in 2011. I am not of the belief that Nickeas could adequately fill that need.
Emaus does not impress me with what little bit I’ve seen of him and my feeling is we’ll get the same poor D/lite bat we got the last few years.
I am certainly open to and hoping that I am wrong about Nickeas, Emaus and Paulino’s medical/no ST issues.
I would have left Carlos in extended ST and kept Evans for a week and very likely kept him over Harris and backed Angel with Hairston and Neuwenhaus instead of Hairston/Harris because if Angel were to go down, the seasons over anyway. We might as well see what Newenhaus might be able to do in CF and had Duda/Evans or even Fern/Evans to give a shot to at the same time.
And whether or not Johan was the MAN, we still have to match his 200 IP at a 2.98 ERA in order to start even with last year.
Call it pessamistic but I have been foolishly optimistic in the past and I guess I’ve learned to temper that with some realism.
I will be at Citi Field rooting as always, hoping our results are closer to your prediction but that’s how I see it.
The season will play out and we’ll enjoy it for whatever we can get, if it happens to be more than I thought on April 1st I’ll count my blessings. In any event when I settle in to watch Opening Day I’ll be watching right alongside you.
T, WOW!
u choose to selectivly single out some very interesting concerns while neglecting the absence of so many obstacles to overcome.
While u selectively see 79Ws last season as the result of benevolent results from suprising pluses from Pagan & Dickey.
In addition to disparaging the anticipated results from LF as .250/.350/.450 you fail to accomodate that ordinary result being an improvement over the .269/.244/.402 from Bay that still contributed to 79Ws.
____________________________________________________________T, your self proclaimation of optimism over direction is a SHAM!
I conmtend that an optimist over mere direction would look at the absence of obstacles to overcome to achieve 79Ws like:
1B – JACOBS,TATIS
2B – CASTILLO
SS- TYHYROID & entire second half oblique issue eliminating headfirst sliding, seriosly constricting SB
#4SP – JOHN MAINE
#5SP – OLIVER PEREZ
COMBINED 1-8 RECORD OVERCOME TO ATTAIN 79Ws
T, CHOOSE TO IGNORE all THE UNANSWERED QUESTIONS THROUGHOUT OUR DIVISION IF U WILL; BUT DO NOT TRY TO DESCRIBE YOURSELF IN ANY WAY AS OPTIMISTIC THAT’S TOO DISINGENUOUS EVEN FOR THIS BOARD!
SOMEHOW, U CHOOSE TO IGNORE ADDING THE SINGLE WORST DEFENIVE 2B TO THE 26th RANKED DEFENSE & MERELY SHRUG IT OFF AS WELL AS IGNORING REPLACING WAGNER WITH 2 TOTALLY UNPROVEN OPTIONS WITH A COMBINED RECORD OF JUST 2 MLB SAVES IN 8 OPPORTUNITIES SHAKE THAT UP WITN A 39 YR OLD 3B AVGING ONLY 122G/Y PLAYED WITH 21HR & 76RBI OVER THE PAST 5 YRS WHO’S INCIDENTLY COMING OFF OF ACL SURGERY AND U ARRIVE @ A DIVISION CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON DESPITE OPPOSITION ADDING CLIFF LEE TO THAT MURDERER’S ROW ROTATION.
T, case u didn’t realize it, THAT ATLANTA PROPHECY IS WHAT’S GENERALLY CONSIDERED AS OPTIMISM. SUGGEST U BUY A NEW WEBSTERS & SEND ME THE BILL.
These predictions are fun to read. Everyone gets it on them from the Vegas line to SI.
The predictions are based on the team as it stands on paper on whatever day those predictions are being made. As any baseball fan can tell you, what happens over the course of a 162 game season doesn’t often play out on paper. So much has to go right – or wrong – for those predictions to stand.
Whoever first said it was absolutely correct: ‘That’s why you play the games’.
I see the Mets finishing ahead of both the Marlins and the Braves too. It’s ridiculous to think the Marlins are better.
Hojo you hit it on the head – until we see how the new signings pan out R.A. Dickey is the Mets most reliable starting pitcher
lol @Kevin thinking the mets are going to place higher than the braves in the NL east this season
How can you say the Mets are “infinitely” better than the Marlins? Their 6 top starters in their rotation have better WHIPs than Pelfrey (the Mets anointed #1 starter), with only 2 of them having worse career ERAs than Pelfrey (Nolasco and Volstad). Plus, their lineup is stronger/just as strong as the Mets at SS – Ramirez, RF – Stanton, 1B – Sanchez, 2B – Infante, C – Buck. Not to mention, the Marlins are not suffering through the health questions the Mets are. Now, I believe the Mets bullpen is much stronger than the Marlins, but I see no evidence that points to the Mets being “infinitely” better than the Marlins. Come on Mets fans…I love the Mets, but I am not looking through Mets blinders when evaluating this team and their opponents’ teams.
Stanton, Infante, Buck?? Are you on crack? You say their starters are all better than Pelfrey? And what about Dickey, Niese, Young? All you negative Mets fans make me sick! Go root for the Marlins.
Stanton and Buck are coming off of 20+ HR seasons and Infante is a .300 hitter. The Mets have a hobbled guy playing RF, a kid who is about to play his first MLB season at C and the Mets have no second baseman…out of the 3 players you mentioned, thinking the Mets are better off then the Marlins at the same positions…wouldn’t you be the one on crack?
I’m not being negative…I’m being realistic. Try it, it feels nice.
I’d take Pagan, Ike Davis and Thole over Buck, Infante and Stanton any day, and month, any year. Why dont you show some pride for your own, and maybe you’d see how good our players are.
I have a lot of pride in the team…I’m a season ticketholder…but, when you actually break down the players at each position…they’re very comparable. Pagan is the Mets CFer, I didn’t include the Marlins CFer (Coughlan) because I think Pagan is much better than him. As for Ike Davis…the Marlins had a rookie first baseman last season (Sanchez) who had a better season than Davis did. And for Thole, this is his first full season, Buck is a guy who hits double figure HRs every season and is coming off of an all-star campaign…As for Stanton and Infante, right now, how could you not rather have them over the Mets RF situation (injured Beltran) and 2B situation. Just because you don’t hear about the Marlins players every night on the local news, does not mean they aren’t as good or better than their positional counterparts on the Mets.
They lost Uggla who led them in runs, hr, rbi, slg, tb.
Ike Davis is better than Gabby. Davis has a higher OPS and is a better defender, maybe the best defender in the NL and should have won a gold glove.
Plus Sanchez ended season in a downward spiral .212/.292/.333 while Ike adjusted and finished .330/.427/.524.
Ike davis has the better pedigree was higher draft pick and has a higher ceiling. You stick with Gabby, I’ll take Ike.
Stanton struck out 123 times in 350 at-bats and looks like the second coming of Jeff Francoeur. Have fun with that.
It’s funny, ESPN had Stanton on their list of potential sleepers AND potential busts. Apparently this kid is all or nothing.
In the same show or segemnt?
Well I read a scouting report on him at BBTF last year that said when he makes contact he can crush a baseball, but he has yet to prove he can make consistent contact, hasn’t improved approach in 3 seasons, and hasn’t met a high and outside fastball he couldn’t resist.
It was the same segment. They were scrolling busts and sleepers on their bottom line and he appeared on both lists.
Stanton did have a high strikeout rate…but at 20 years old, he had 44 extra base hits in those same 350 at-bats…you say Franceour…at 6’5, I’m thinking more of a right-handed Adam Dunn. Considering Stanton’s age, I think the Marlins are going to have a lot of “fun with that,” not so much fun for the guys having to pitch to him.
As for comparing Ike to Gabby…sure Ike finished the season great in September…but, unfortunately, from May – August, Ike was .241/.323/.412…and Sanchez was .287/.344/.479. As for Ike’s pedigree, he is the son of a pitcher, not a first baseman.
Even with losing Uggla, in Infante, they get a better defender, and a better on-base guy to hit in front of Hanley, Sanchez, and Stanton.
You are smart, you must be right. You win, Mets suck, Go Marlins. (sarcasm)
SMH
Never said the Mets suck…just pointing out that the experts are picking the Mets to finish behind the Marlins because of valid reasons. Doesn’t mean it will happen, but on paper the Marlins appear to be, at the very least, equal to the Mets.
The slash lines give you LESS information than the old way which was better. If Ike Davis hit .241 in August of course his OBP and SLG will be lower and Sanchez hit .287 with a couple walks or so, big deal. These guys are potential power hitting first baseman and should be described as such.
Gaby Sanchez from May to August – 15 HRs, 70 RBI, .287
Ike Davis from May to August – 14 HRs, 51 RBIs, .241
(0 RBI in August but 14 in September)
There, now the reader has a better idea of what these guys did during those months. The reader doesn’t have to know their OBP because you can pretty much get an idea of it from those stats. The exact number of the OBP is not necessary. Not for these guys anyway and besides we already know Ike walks a lot.
And Ike’s father not being a 1Bman doesn’t make much any difference. If my Dad was once a professional pitcher for the Yankees and I happened to play 1B, having a dad who experienced what Ron Davis did will help immeasurable. I think just having a Dad who played any major league position would help, let’s use our heads.
Again saber thinking rears it’s arrogant head.
Thank you for clarifying for the reader how much more productive over the course of those 100+ games Gaby Sanchez was than Ike Davis. Pedigree or not, Ike had a great final month of the season, but Sanchez was superior for the 4 months prior to that.
Actually, the stats you just gave tells us WAY less about what the hitter did. The home runs are nice, yes, but the RBIs are useless, since they depend on the hitters in front being on base or not, something the hitter has no control of. And giving batting average tells us almost nothing. It just tells us the percentage of hits the batter got in plate apperances that only resulted in a hit or in a non-sacrifice out. It completely neglects other plate appearances in which something useful (or not useful was done). I’ll take the OBP and SLG%. It tells us everything the batter did, not just just cherry picking certain plate appearances.
A 20 year old with 20 doubles and 20 HR’s in 2/3 of a season is nothing like Jeff Francouer. Jeff did that once, in a full season. As for the K’s Francouer doesn’t K very often cause he rarely has a two strike count. Stanton does, and he’ll take his walks too which will only help him get more pitches to hit.
Disparaging other teams right fielders just because we gave the majority of RF AB’s to Church, Francouer, Felciano and Carter doesn’t make our’s better or even close. Fact is if Beltran doesn’t play 120 games out there the difference in production from that spot is going to be massive.
While I like Ike better than Gabby the difference between the two is a lot smaller than the difference between Stanton and anyone we played in RF in two decades, not to mention the respective payrolls.
True, they lost their second basemen but at least they got one. Maybe not a great one but nothing like we have suffered through.
The Mets and Marlins are pretty equal overall. I gave an edge to them because of their SP and depth at SP and come June Matt Dominguez gives them another young cost controlled rookie to add to Stanton and Sanchez.
If they had our payroll they would’ve lapped us about 7 times since they joined the league in 1993 and our only success since 1988 has come about partly because they can’t afford to keep their own players, or even compete at all in certain years.
Finally!! Someone who can look at these predictions rationally and not through Blue and Orange colored goggles.
what did albert pujols dad do for a living ? joey votto’s ? roy halladay’s ?
pedigree ?
what is this … the track ?
Yeah whats up with pointing out other teams have good players too? Stanton? Who needs a RFer? Infante? Who needs a second basemen? We’ve gotten by without one of those for years now. Lets just focus on SS and 3B. That’s all you really need. We have the best SS and 3B tandem in the league (at least until Dominguez gets up here) We’re the best. Case closed.
MATT, THIS IS THE FIRST REPLIABLE COMMENT FROM U FOR ME TO COUNTER YOUR CLAIM, “Never said the Mets suck…just pointing out that the experts are picking the Mets to finish behind the Marlins because of valid reasons. Doesn’t mean it will happen, but on paper the Marlins appear to be, at the very least, equal to the Mets.”
LET’S SEE, HERE’S THE SPORTING NEWS “SWEET SPOT” WRITE UP ON THIS YEAR’S FISH, Following the trade of 2B dan Ufggla, SS Hanley Ramirez will be asked to carry the offensive load. Although he hit .300 with 21 HR,76RBI & 32 SB last season. it was considerede a down year, Urged by manager Edwin Eidriguez tto assume more of a leadershuip role, Rmirez has vowed to do so, as well as bring numbers closer to rgeir ’09 levels(.342-24-106).
YOU MAY NOTE THAT NOWHERE DO THEY EXPLAIN HOW THESE INEXPERIENCED REPLACEMENTS ARE GOING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL LOSSES OF MAYBIN & ROSS FROM THAT FORMER;LY DECENT LEVEL OFFENSE. TODAY’S CONJECTURED LINEUP FOR FL FEATURES 5 PLAYERS WITH LESS THAN 250 GAMES PLAYED IN THE MAJORS MOST OF THEM BATTING IN CRITICAL PRODUCTION SLOTS IN THE LINEUP THIS IS THAT PROJECTED LINEUP WITH (MLB GP) ALONGSIDE THOSE INEXPERIENCED PROMISING CONTRIBUTORS:
CF COGHLAN(219)
2B INFANTE
SS RAMIREZ
RF STANTON(100)
1B SANCHEZ(127)
LF MORRISON(62)
C BUCK
3B DOMINGUEZ(0)
While certainly ALL 5 are PROMISING prospects; however the Fish are positioned to place too heavy a reliance upon ALL 5 promises coming through with little opportunity for sophomore slump recovery. True Davis poses the same issue in NY; however that’s ONLY ONE NOT 5 NEEDED TO RELY UPON. CAN ANYONE IMAGINE HANLEY BEING PITCHED THE SAME WITHOUT THE UGGLA THREAT BEHIND HIM ESP WITH STANTON’S PROPENSITY TO STRIKEOUT!
ALL FIVE? ARE U KIDDING ME? DO U BELIEVE THE SAME OPTIMISTIC VIEW WOULD BE SUPPOSED BY THESE SELF-APPOINTED EGGHEADS IF WE FEATURED SIMILAR INEXPERIENCE?
YOU QUALIFY THOSE AS VALID CONSIDERATIONS FOR IMPROVED RESULTS WITH A RELATIVE NOVICE MLB MNGR?
Matt, good 4 u; but why not contribute on a teal line instead of blue/orange. I don’t believe matching the two teams side by side with eavh other is going to lead to any compromise or agreement since I’d clearly take a somewhat healthy proven MLB topperforming Beltran(SWH) over a talented 100 game phenom suddenly thrust into the uberpressurized cleanup position with a “protect Hanley” requirement. While Beltran is unlikely to contrbute in as nany games as Stranton, his actual contributions at the dish \should certainly exceed if not be comprehble Here’s some other considerations brought up in the current Sporting News Fish evaluation; Stanton’s average and ONP will improve in his second season; but strikeouts will remain a problem Johnson won’t duplicate his NL best 2.30 ERA; but will remain an ‘ace’. Ramirez won’t casually jog after balls or get into dugout confrontations.
Now, Matt do those additional considerations add or subtract from tyour fuzzy warm anticipations for ’11?
Prerhaps your fintastic optimism would be served from Gabt Sanchez’ observations, on Stanton of whom he ‘s quoted as saying” He’s a guy that can hit 40,50HRs; but it’s hard to ask a young kid in his first full season to do that. All I am looking for him to play the whole year, stay healthy and be cionsistant”
Matt, I comend your team loyalty & optimism; however despite everything, look back at last yr’s ROY contenders & even should Stanto match them are u fulfilling your vision of grandeur? Certainly if healthy Sanchez,Stanton & Morrison are cogs in a very potent offense to be reckoned with; however, I doubt their time in NOW.
MATT, HERE’S THE REAL CONSIDERATION, IN 2010 FLORIDA FINISHED 80-82 RELYING UPON CONTRIBUTIONS FROM UGGLA,ROSS,MAYBIN.
THE METS FINISHED 79-83 SANS BELTRAN WITH CASTILLO & NON FULL SEASONS FROM BAY,DAVIS,DICKEY,REYES WITH BOTH PEREZ & MAINE IN THE ROTATION.
THE CONSIDERATION I WEIGH IS BY INCREASING ANTICIPATED PRODUCTIVITY IN NY @ LF,1B,2B,SS,#4,#5 SP DESPITE THE LOSS OF SANTANA(11-9).
IT IS CERTAINLY MORE LOGICAL TO ME TO ANTICIPATE BETTER RESULTS FROM THE TEAM ADDING CERTAIN PRODUCTIVITY THAN THE ONE LOSING PROVEN PRODUCTIVITY REPLACING IT WITH TALENTED UNMEASURED PROMISES.
STILL WANT TO TAL ABOUT SMOKING FUNNY SUBSTANCES?
YOUR HEAD TO HEAD CONSIDERATIONS “ON PAPER” IS THE TYPICAL MISTAKE WE NYM FANS MADE EVER SINCE ’06 & TAKE IT FROM ME SELF COMPARISONS ARE TRULY MORE RELIABLE IN TAKING OPPOSITION INTIO ACCOUNT.
Your wasting your time trying to work things out logically with that one. As closed minded as they come and seems to think he has 100 years of baseball experience and knowledge packed inside of him. Save your breath for those who would listem 62.
Braves
Phillies
Marlins
Nats
Mets
No way to Nats or Marlins finish ahead of the Mets.
You’re kidding, right?
i am not kidding.
ok, the nats are probably worse than the mets, but if you honestly evaluate the mets pitching staff from back to front, and that reyes and beltran are both gone by july, you’ll realize that it’s pretty close.
the marlins fourth starter ( vasquez ) is as good as the mets first starter ( pelfrey ). they are at least 5 games better than the mets.
You would trade Mike Pefrey for Javier Vasquez? Wow, there’s a new breed of stupidity invading the MMO threads this season I see.
Be fair. No one said anyone would trade anyone for anyone. The last time Vazquez pitched in the NL East, which was only two years ago, he put up Cy Young numbers. If Pelfrey ever sees that kind of year in his career, he’ll shock a bunch of people.
stache, if this was their last year in the league I would.
age is the reason you don’t make that trade, not current ability, but nice try.
for 2011 and just 2011, i’d take vasquez.
and again, vasquez is the marlins fourth starter, pelfrey is the mets #1 starter.
would you trade josh johnson for pelfrey ?
Vasquez has lost his velocity and it doesn’t look good for him but the rest of the rotation is not bad.
Vazquez will bounce back. Write this down. 3.20 ERA, 210 K’s, 1.25 WHIP. He can win 18 games fairly easily if the Braves stay healthy.
He’s on the Marlins.
He plays for the Marlins. And I’ll take that bet.
and I’m also taking the over when he pitches in CBP. Whatever it is.
a whip of 1.40 will match pelfrey’s this year. so would and era of 4.
and he’ll strike out more guys than pelfrey.
Right, right……..Marlins. I was channeling his previous NL East stint. I stand behind his stats, but his win total I’ll amend. Fifteen or sixteen, health of himself and the team considered.
yeah, like i said, vasquez is as good as pelfrey.
I don’t see Reyes gone by July but I do see Beltran gone by the deadline. In fact, I see the Mets pitching staff getting better via trade. If Capuano, Young, and even Pelfrey does well by the trade deadline, they could be showcased for better starters. Some front line starters could be trade bait at the deadline this year like Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals. No way St. Louis brings him back for next season so the Mets could jump on Carpenter. If the Mets take advantage of this year’s trade deadline, they MAY finish ahead of Atlanta and win the wild card.
i watched enough college hoops this week to understand that anything MAY happen, but the mets trading for chris carpenter for a playoff run seems highly unlikely.
i can’t see the mets in the hunt at the break.
i do see the cards in the hunt at the break, so i don’t see them selling.
I think the Cards are in trouble. Wainwright hurts a lot. Their MI situation is real bad. I can’t believe Pujols situation is going to make things better and their farm is in a shambles.
“i do see the cards in the hunt at the break…”
Not if Cincy & Milwaukee have something to say about that.
‘in the hunt’ means within 5 games of the wild card to me.
i’ll stick with that prediction for the cards and mets.
Besides their own problems the Cards now have two teams to beat in their own Division, Philly and Atlanta in the east and SF and whoever (probably Colorado) in the West.
The Cards without the Pujols headaches and with Wainwright got beaten out by Cincinatti and while anything can happen I’d say odds are much better they’ll be sellers come July.
i don’t know why having the best player of all-time in his walk year is a headache.
we have 2 mid level all stars in their walk years, i guess that’s twice the headache.
i agree wainwright is a big loss, i’ll equate that to losing santana.
either way, i see them ahead of the mets by the break. i guess we’ll see …
Francis, Reyes likely isn’t as much a goner as u wish!
Here’s your staff comparisons
PHILLIES BRAVES FISH METS GNATS
HALLADAY(1) LOWE(4) JOHNSON(2) PELFREY(3) HERMANDEZ(LIVAN)(5)
LEE(1) HANSON(2) NOLASCO(4 DICKEY(2) MARQUIS(5)
OSWALT(1) HUDSON(3) VAZQUEZ(1) NIESE(5) LANNAN(4)
HAMELS(3) JURRJENS(1) SANCHEZ(4) YOUNG(1) ZIMMERMANN(4)
BLANTON(1) MINOR(5) VOLSTAD(1) CAPUAN0(1) GORZELANNY(4)
You may note that certainmly it’s arguable my ranking them, in my eyes 1-5 in their respective rotational slots, ties are represented by egual # designator & based upon my expectations for their perfotmances over an entire season for exanmple in the #1 slot I expect Pelfrey to be regularly outpitched by both Halladay & Johnson while he outpitches both Livan & Lowe throughout most of their encounters from April through September. While this is primarily my observer’s opinion based upon merely my more than 50 years experience as a baseball fan. I did not conjure these rotations out of the nexis; however I did rely upon the Sporting News’ latest speculations on the rotation slot assignments in the NL East. I learned yesterday that the Braves announced Beeches(sp?) as replacing Minor in #5 slot; but as it did not alter my evaluation I chose to stay wiyj the SN source.
’62, Beachy making the rotation means Minor is opening in AAA? If that’s true the Braves have no LH starter and three in the pen.
T, MUST BE I LOOKED TODAY & MINOR’S NO LONGER ON THE ACTIVE ROSTER SHOWN BY MLB.COM THOUGH BEACHY IS.
Thanks ’62. Braves must have thought Minor needed more time.
WRONG! SHAKE IT(8-BALL) AGAIN!
PHILLIES
BRAVES(barely over NY)
METS
GNATS
FISH