24
2011
The Battle For the Back End of the Rotation
An article by 
Last week I wrote a piece on the position battle currently going on at second base. This week I will take a look at the back end of the Mets rotation. The Mets have four players who will be in the running for two spots.
The Contenders:
Chris Capuano- 4-4, 3.95 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 2.57 K/BB, 0.5 WAR, $1.5 million, 32 years old
Chris Young- 4-6, 5.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.25 K/BB, -0.5 WAR, $1.1 million, 32 years old (all stats from 2009)
The Darkhorse:
Dillon Gee- 2-2, 2.18 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 1.13 K/BB, 0.3 WAR, $400K, 25 years old
The Very Longshot:
Oliver Perez- 0-5, 6.80 ERA, 2.07 WHIP, 0.88 K/BB, -1.1 WAR, $12 million, 29 years old
It appears as if the Mets rotation is pretty much set going into the season, but there still is some uncertainty as to who will fill out the last two spots. It goes without saying that both Chris Capuano and Chris Young will make the Opening Day roster. However, it is definitely possible that one of them may actually pitch out of the bullpen.
Chris Capuano has now twice undergone Tommy John Surgery. Last year, Capuano appeared in 24 games and started only nine of them. However, he does have a track record of success when he is healthy. Capuano won 18 games in 2005 and was named to the All-Star team the following year. Capuano needs to prove that he is still healthy and that he can go deep into games if he wants to make the rotation.
Chris Young is another pitcher that has undergone surgery. Young had his shoulder repaired during the 2009 season. Young managed to pitch four games in 2010 and performed very well. He had a 0.90 ERA in those four starts. He also has the best track record of any pitcher on this list with a career 3.80 ERA. He appears to have the most solid hold on a rotation spot out of those in this group.
Dillon Gee was very impressive when he was called up to the majors late last season. However, Gee did struggle a bit in the minors. He posted a 4.96 ERA in 28 starts at Triple-A. At age 25, Gee is a bit old to be considered a prospect and now could be his chance to earn a spot with the big league team. He has a bit of a challenge ahead of him to make the roster, but with a good spring there is no reason that he can’t make the rotation.
There is only so much that can be said here about Oliver Perez. The only reason that he is even getting mentioned is because of a report that Perez has been promised a chance to make the starting rotation out of Spring Training. This seems highly unlikely however. Perez struggled in the Mexican League this winter and this is not a good sign for his chances of making the team. He will need to be lights out this spring to have any chance of making the roster, let alone the starting rotation.
It seems very likely that Chris Young will win the fourth spot in the rotation. If he proves that he is healthy during Spring Training, the spot should be his. If not, then things will get a bit more interesting.
Working under the assumption that Young is actually healthy, the fifth spot in the rotation is still up for grabs as well. The current favorite appears to be Capuano by a slim margin. Spring Training will be very important in determining who actually wins the spot. This may be going out on a limb here, but Dillon Gee will round out the Mets rotation come Opening Day.
The next questions are obviously what happens with Capuano and Perez. It makes sense that Capuano would serve as the long man out of the bullpen and he would also be the team’s spot starter. If Gee struggles early on, he can be moved into the rotation while Gee is sent down to the minors.
Oliver Perez obviously presents a much more pressing question: Will he be cut? This is a very difficult call to make based on the Wilpon’s current financial situation. While Perez’s contract is a sunk cost, the Wilpons may ask Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins to get some value out of their “asset”. It is difficult to see how this is possible. If Perez is willing to accept a minor league assignment than he will remain with the organization. If not, it appears that he may get cut.
About the Author: Robert Knapel
Robert is from New Jersey. He is currently pursuing Bachelors degrees in both Finance and International Business at Washington University in St. Louis. He has been a Mets fan for as long as he can remember. Robert also serves as an MLB Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 23 | .410 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Hey Des, Donel, check this out…http://metsfever.blogspot.com/2011/02/video-murphy-sloppy-while-castillo.html
And what? Castillo made one good play and Murphy made one bad one. During a drill. In February.
Are you affraid the judges will take runs away from the Mets for style?
Why did I even indulge this? This should be about the starting rotation.
Hard work and hustle doesn’t field a ball up the middle. Strong defense up the middle is what every GM in baseball strives for. Ever wonder why? “Are you affraid the judges will take runs away from the Mets for style” NO! I am afraid of what Johan will do when scrubby Murphy cost him another win ala the butcher job in LF. Emaus will win out
“Hard work and hustle doesn’t field a ball up the middle.”
Neither does Castillo, in case you haven’t been watching the last few years.
“Strong defense up the middle is what every GM in baseball strives for. Ever wonder why?”
Because that is where the most balls go and is the most ground to cover.
“NO! I am afraid of what Johan will do when scrubby Murphy cost him another win ala the butcher job in LF.”
Which is why there is an ongoing competition. Although, I’m sure Johan will appreciate the extra run support Murphy would bring over Castillo.
“Emaus will win out”
He may. How about we wait a little longer than February 24th to make judgements?
Touche. I will agree with the 2/24, but for the record, I can’t stand Castillo either. I never want to see him out there again. Just don’t want to see Murphy either. I will say this Donel and hope you would agree…the future Met starting second baseman isn’t on this years 40 man roster. I extend an olive branch!
Where is Havens starting the year?
I would hope triple A, but my guess is double A. He is our best prospect at 2B, just hope he stays healthy all year and maybe get a September call up.
I’m sure if he stays healthy and stays on course, we’ll see him by September 1
DONAL, I BELIEVE IN AN INTERVIEW ON “HOT STOVE” SHOW LAST NIGHT WALLY MENTIONED HE’D HAVE HAVENS IN AA THIS YR.
Hey, I thought this thread was about pitching competition, & as piching is what wins seasons it’s certainly more important than 2b circus whereby TC just unburied Tejada’s name from the AAA SS position & threw his uni in the ring @ 2B
Back to pitching, as I see it despite the health stamina concerns surrouding Young & Capuano; both would appear to be upgrades over their ROTATION PREDECESSORS,Maine & Perez, is the similarity in polarity mere couincidink? Maine, Young both RH, Perez,Capuano both LH? maintaining L/R balance in rotation, 2 RH, 2 LH 1 near ambidextrious with knuckler! Regardless who makes the “Fab 5″, I predict Dickey is leader in all major categories: ERA,Ks,Ws,WHIP,GS! and should have been named openner!
Cerrone has said Emaus been looking a lot more comfortable on field than Murphy. I’ve said it 2, 615 times – Murphy will NOT be starting at 2B.
But he’s a class act and will be valuable to Mets off bench. I can imagine Murph pinchitting in big spot and getting clutch hits.
Next thing for me is to actually see Emaus play in game situations. I know most people disagree w/me but I still believe Tejada has shot, especially if he hits better..Collins said Tejada not out of picture and impressed with how much he’s worked out.
The games will tell.
If Collins did indeed say that “Tejada not out of picture” (not that i am saying he didnt just that i havent seen him quoted yet) that goes to show that nothing said early is set in stone so ppl should relax more.
there was a tweet that want by a little bit ago to that affect (something about collins being impressed by how Tejada looks stronger than last year).
but yeah, those early comments were part of a “big picture” overview of where things stood at the moment, and what assumptions they were working under at the time. All subject to change (well, Mejia probably not, but other than that).
Here you go hattip to Hitman.
“furtherHey, hey! Collins praised Ruben Tejada this afternoon. He has an outside shot to be the Opening Day 2B, Collins said.”
http://twitter.com/Ledger_NYMets/statuses/40839475047170048
Young and Cap were interviewed last night on SNY’s Hot Stove. They said all the right things but both impressed with their attitudes. They’re serious, they’re here to pitch and both had quiet type confidence they could be in that starting rotation.
Perez…..I know early comments from camp are ‘he looks good’ but IMO he’d better look a damn site better than good. Truthfully, I don’t see anyway where he has a shot at this rotation. In fact, I really don’t want to see him in the BP either. On a good day with Ollie starting, you never knew what you were going to get: good or bad Ollie. Can you see him coming out of the BP in say the 7th to face Utley and Howard, for example? We would all be holding our breaths.
His salary is a sunk cost, period. I don’t see the point in getting ‘value’ out of that 12 MIL unless they truly mean ‘value’ – as in he’s more than good enough to get the job done. Otherwise, just release him. It should be about winning ballgames, not getting value out of his last year on this contract.
One play in ST doesn’t mean anything but just look at the difference in how guys cover the ground, make the flip, turn it, field it, throw it. Took thousands of games and a lot of natural ability to get to that point.
For some reason the Mets always feel that they can just plug guys in and they’ll just play there as if that had been their position all along.
Wilmer Flores will be the next guy asked to break in AND learn a brand new position at the same time. Duda and Evans hardly played the OF at all last year so when they get up here where do they go? Mejia gets jackassed between the pen , rotation and five different leagues last year, that’s why he has no chance this year. Mets were so confident in Murphy at LF they even traded away Endy Chavez. What a plan for player development.
this isn’t the NFL. Players have to play offense and defense. and pelnty of guys that may not have been th emost graceful have played the field due to their bats!
duda played a good chunk of the MiL season in the OF. Might still have some room for improvement due to experience, but he was fine out there. It isn’t really rocket science to play corner OF (being as it is where they send most guys that can’t field!)
Odds are they played out there during their lives anyway.
Really a very poor analagy. The mets, despiter your failed effortsd at revisionist hidtory dumped Chavez because he was merely a backup, and they unlike you are your lies were smart enought to evaluate his rapidly diminishing speed sionce his sever hamstring ijury took away the only thing that made him a major league back-up. You of course in your blind and pure hatred of everything Met twist him being dumped into a major fiasco. Unlike your analysis, the Mets properly did their legwork and smartly dumped Chavez. And as for minor leaguers being moved, if you would get off your false high horse you would have learned that most kids who are infielders are started at SS if possible and moved over in time and outfielders are put in Cf if possible and moved over. But, of course you just like to spew venom so you talk nonsense and pure jibberish incessantly. Your theories are nothing more than hate.
You are 100% correct my friend. I tried to make a point last week that Murphy is and always will be a hitter without a position. He has cement hands and zero athletic ability. He will be an absulute butcher if he played second base, yet people here love him over better players simply because he hustles, or works hard. Can’t wait to say I told you so!
Ollie only makes the rotation if something goes horrible wrong (horribly right?) Make that both. Right, he has to have an incredible revival spring. and wrong, the guys ahead of him need to stink and/or get hurt.
Right now, Capuano and Young have to be considered the “incumbents”, meaning they are pencilled in and it is their spots to lose. Gee will most likely be needed anyway during the year, and will get plenty of starts along the way. So send him to AAA to start and be ready to step in.
Neither young or capuano really belong in the pen. They are both SP. Capu also was only there last year on a sort of rehab assignment. Once he was ready, he went back to the rotation (very successfully too). Total waste having him as a mop up long man.
and someone needs to tell Cerrone that he has never pitched back to back days, and having a guy with 2 TJs on his record try to warm up quickly in the pen might not be a good idea! (Cerrone seems to think he should be the new loogy).
Long man? No way is Capuano the 11th or 12th pitcher on the roster. If he isn’t starting he’s a setup guy for Krod, coming in in the 7th or 8th inning. But I’m very surprised if he hasn’t already been given a starting job. It’s his job to lose.
No way Capuano will be a setup guy. We need someone who can snuff out the opposing teams and can bring the heat like Bobby Parnell.
Barring a complete meltdown, Capuano and Young will win the last two spots in the rotation. I do not foresee Gee doing anything but starting at Buffalo. Oliver Perez has a slight chance to be a LOOGY. That’s what I think.
What about Mejia? Why isn’t he included?
Aldreson is trading him for a 5’2″ 300lb short stop to replace Reyes.
I couldn’t help but notice that the name “Jonathon Niese” did not appear at all in this article. Is that because he is homegrown talent and we, as Mets fans, generally, value our homegrown talent to be far better than they actually are? Jonathon Niese was very inconsistent last season. He had 8 starts where he gave up 5 or more ER and 4 other starts where he gave up 5 runs in a game…sure, in those 4 starts some of the runs were unearned, but had he been able to end an inning, those unearned runs may not have scored…therefore, he had 12 starts where his opponent scored 5 or more runs against him. His last 7 starts of the season were atrocious…38.2 IP, 41 runs (30 ER), 19 walks, 6 HR’s allowed. Plus, in 30 starts last season, he averaged only 5.7 IP. I like Niese, and I am rooting for him to do well, but I think we should not give him a free pass because we like him…he should feel a lot of pressure this season due to guys in AAA (Gee, Mejia, Harvey) knocking on the door to the majors, and when Johan comes back, if Capuano, Young, and Dickey are pitching well, Niese may find himself pitching in Buffalo.
I think it’s fair to guess Niese does not consider himself a safe and established major leaguer. So as far as him feeling pressure goes I think it is fair to say he knows he can be sent down and replaced if he doesn’t perform up to snuff.
I think you just made the case why Murphy’s fielding is going to be key to his making it as the starter.
Niese wasn’t inconsistent, He tired out late and most of his really bad implosions came on extended innings due to sloppy fielding and errors.
Pelfrey also sufferred from those as did every pitcher we had. Dickey’s worst game started with an error and snowballed on him.
That doesn’t mean Niese can’t regress and lose his spot in the rotation.
But he is not one of those you can say would be a failure if he did. Just means he needs more coaching as all guys who don’t have 5 years of ML experience do.
Based off of this article, it seems as though Niese has been anointed the Mets #3 starter by bloggers and fans alike, and the other 3 pitchers mentioned are battling for spots #4 and #5. Looking at Niese’s numbers, he is more of a #5 starter at best and by giving him a free pass to the #3 spot is more wishful thinking than anything else and it will probably hurt this team in the long run, unless Niese can find consistency, because up to now…he has not had much success as major league pitcher.
The great thing is that the bloggers don’t have any say in who pitches where. The Mets decide that. When camp breaks we’ll see who they have slotted where to start the season.
I think most fans just feel the 3 most likely to make the team are Pelfrey, Dickey and Niese and of course when you look at those 3 names Niese ranks 3rd best among them but I don’t expect Niese to be the #3 starter if the Mets see that Young fits that slot better and frankly I don’t really care. I am just looking to see the best 5 make the rotation.
The darker horse is Boof Bonser
a very dark horse.
anyone that is signed to a MiL deal and can thus be stashed in Buffalo as emergency depth is going to really have to blow away the ML contract competition to win a spot.