18
2011
Spring Update: Ike and Homeruns, Beato, Ollie, Johan
An article by Hojo's Mojo
It was a busy day at Port St. Lucie as more players arrived to camp including Johan Santana and Jose Reyes who both spoke to reporters and also appeared on WFAN. You can hear both clips over at the Real Dirty Mets Blog.
Sandy Alderson told reporters that he hopes Johan Santana can rejoin the team by June or July, and Reyes reasserted his desire to re-sign with the Mets.
Rule 5 selection Brad Emaus has been getting most of the attention this offseason, but RHP Pedro Beato who was also selected, may have a good shot of making the team according to the New York Post. The article says that if Beato can show any effectiveness, his minimal salary could give him all the edge he needs.
Team owner Fred Wilpon told reporters that he did nothing wrong and in the end he will be vindicated. “I love the New York Mets” he said, I’ve been around here for almost 32 years. This is part of my DNA.”
It’s the end of the road for Howard Johnson and the Mets as HoJo (Cool Nickname!) has decided to leave the organization. The Mets had promised him another job after he was yanked as hitting coach, but after being left in limbo all this time, he figured he wasn’t wanted.
Remember the Maine? Well John Maine, who the Mets non-tendered after the season, has signed a minor league deal with the Rockies. The contract will pay him $3 million dollars if he makes the major-league team this Spring and includes an out-clause if he doesn’t.
Jon Heyman believes that LHP Oliver Perez will be given more of a chance to make the team then second baseman Luis Castillo. Considering the difference in their salaries, that would make a lot of sense… I mean cents… I believe that if Daniel Murphy wins the 2B job, Castillo is out. However, if Castillo wins the 2B job, Murphy will stick as a utility infielder.
Unlike last spring training, first baseman Ike Davis has no competition for a job this year, but he is hoping to correct some flaws that caused him to have a few prolonged slumps last season. He also told Adam Rubin of ESPN New York that one of his goals is to hit more than 20 home runs this season. That shouldn’t be a problem and in fact I think 25 homeruns would be a good bet for Ike.
According to Terry Collins, newly signed catcher Ronny Paulino is not yet in camp due to some visa issues, but he is expected to be in camp and ready to go by Saturday.
Speaking of catchers, according to the Associated Press, an arbitrator ruled that the Mets did not back out of an official deal with C Yorvit Torrealba after coming close to a three-year, $14.4 million deal in November 2007. ”The terms signed by the team and Torrealba’s representative said the deal was subject to a physical that was satisfactory to the Mets. The team concluded it had concerns about his throwing shoulder.”
A pretty eventful day for our boys.
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 23 | 18 | .561 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 19 | .548 | 0.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 22 | .476 | 3.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 23 | .410 | 6.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 31 | .262 | 12.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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Thanks for the R.D.M. mention.
Real classy Mr Alderson, in your dealing with Howard Johnson. You promise someone a job and leave them hanging in limbo for 3 months without the promised job? Yeah, that’s REAL class right there folks. Is this how he’s going to run the Mets? Is he going to tell Jose Reyes and his agent that he’ll make a contract offer at the end of the season and then never make it? I was all for Alderson’s hiring in the beginning. But after having time to digest the Moneyball ideas on how the game should be played on the field (walks and homeruns while de-valuing NL style baseball) and now seeing how he treated HoJo I find myself looking forward to the day he leaves office.
Yea I’m a big HoJo fan as well.
HoJo was offered two different jobs. He declined them both and the two parties mutually agreed to part ways. Take your Alderson bashing elsewhere, at least the un-educated bashing.
Excuse me sir, but facts and double checking your statements for veracity are not welcome here.
Please, just make your claim, and write some iteration of “I know the game, you can’t tell me nothing” and be on your way.
Yeah, on the surface that does sound arrogant and too assuming but when it’s true? What can you do?
But that’s u fantasy guys. Like with Frenchy you guys take on idea or one statement and run with it for an entire season. Or in the case of Jeff Francoeur – we’re now in out 2nd season and some of u guys still run with that.
Wow, what real sellers, what real ambassadors for MB/sabermetrics….the stupid things you guys say really want to make me embrace your belief system. NOT!
You said it 86mets,
I was onto this guy after about a week I can’t stand him and I think the Mets ownership may have made a HUGE mistake in hiring this guy & his cronies. If this is the way the Mets are going to play baseball while he’s here we could be in for another dark period in the years ahead.
It’s his belief system that is forcing Collins to try Murphy at 2B, sacrificing defense for a little offense. Bad move in this case. He believes ALL players in the minors should have 1 walk per 10 ABs – while wonderful in theory you can make an entire system act like robots, each player is different and must be coached that way. He believe all hitters must behave as leadoff hitters. That’s an insane statement right there, no explanation needed.
There’s a lot of funny things going on and it’s gonna be interesting too see what the broadcasters have to say as the season plays out.
It’s a dark period for me. I hate this new front office, i don’t agree with their beliefs, their belief system has been proven to FAIL – see Oakland after 13 years. And it makes it very hard to root for this team. At the beginning i’ll just be watching blankly cuz I’m in a tough spot. The Mets are a team i rooted for all my life but I cannot root for this belief system. I put my beliefs in baseball and how it should be played ahead of any single team I root for.
“And it makes it very hard to root for this team. At the beginning i’ll just be watching blankly cuz I’m in a tough spot. The Mets are a team i rooted for all my life but I cannot root for this belief system. I put my beliefs in baseball and how it should be played ahead of any single team I root for.”
Don’t you think your getting ahead of yourself? I mean Dear God they have yet to even play a Spring Training game.
Your entitled to root or not root for whomever you want but it would be a shame to deny yourself the pleasure of following your team based on preconceived notions that you have yet to see if it will manifest itself on your favorite team and if it does will it be negative to boot.
I hope you don’t cut off your nose to spite your face Bayonne.
“I was onto this guy after about a week I can’t stand him and I think the Mets ownership may have made a HUGE mistake in hiring this guy & his cronies.”
We are all aware you never had any intention of giving Alderson a fair shake.
“If this is the way the Mets are going to play baseball while he’s here we could be in for another dark period in the years ahead.”
You mean expecting results from their employees? Not just using the coaching staff as a glorified Old Timers’ Day?
“It’s his belief system that is forcing Collins to try Murphy at 2B, sacrificing defense for a little offense. ”
You mean executing a plan the organization has been attemtping for 2 years by letting Murphy compete at 2B during Spring Training?
“He believes ALL players in the minors should have 1 walk per 10 ABs ”
I’m not familiar with him saying that. It may in fact be a good thing to help develop plate discipline amongst all your farm hands, but I think most of us agree that is kind of a lofty goal.
“while wonderful in theory you can make an entire system act like robots, each player is different and must be coached that way.”
True, but there is nothing wrong with an organizational philosophy.
“He believe all hitters must behave as leadoff hitters.”
No. He has never said or done anything to make me believe that. Wanting more plate discipline throughout the line up is not the same thing as demanding everyone draw lots of walks.
“That’s an insane statement right there, no explanation needed.”
Are we talking about the thing Alderson never said, or pretty much anything you have said?
“There’s a lot of funny things going on and it’s gonna be interesting too see what the broadcasters have to say as the season plays out.”
Given the editorial freedom SNY’s on air talent has, you’re probably right. But then, they’ve been pretty critical in public for a while now.
“It’s a dark period for me.”
Try Prozac.
“I hate this new front office, i don’t agree with their beliefs”
You know, you can disagree with someone and not hate them. Especially people whom you have never met, have never done you harm, and haven’t even been able to fully execute their plan.
“their belief system has been proven to FAIL – see Oakland after 13 years.”
And Boston and Tampa and SF and the Yankees recently and the Indians of the 90s…
You have a weird definition of “fail”.
“And it makes it very hard to root for this team. ”
Because its been a big damn picnic up until the last 4 months.
“The Mets are a team i rooted for all my life but I cannot root for this belief system. I put my beliefs in baseball and how it should be played ahead of any single team I root for.”
The game is constantly changing. Deal with it.
Well stated Donal.
The Yankees won because they went out signed Sabathia and Mark Teixeria. That’s a very good belief system right there: Sign an ACE pitcher and a star first baseman in FA – I like that strategy.
The Red Sox won because they traded for TWO dominating pitchers, and signed one of the best hitters in the game. Another good belief system: Trade for two of the best picthers in the game and then sign one of the best hitters in the game – Another good plan.
So that must mean the sabermetirc, moneyball(whatever you want call it) belief system is good right?
No it doesn’t actually. It proves if you sign some of the best players in the game in FA, and trade for some of the best players in the game, you will do really good – now THATS’S a really good belief system!
And the one time I actually heard Brian Cashman say metrics made a determination in signing a ballplayer was Nick Swisher. The science was the before he came to Yanks Swisher hit a lot of line drives that were caught so his average was not indicative of what he was capable of doing.
What happened next? They talk about trading him because he can’t perform in the playoffs. So much for that. The problem is the guys who come up with these things think they’re smarter than the game. They can actually calculate themselves right into making a DUMB decision rather than a smart decision.
Baseball is like life, when you least expect it, it bites u in the ass. NO numerical belief system is bigger than the game.
You are lying. No one has ever claimed to be “smarter than the game”. All the new methods of stat analysis, which has been part of the game since it began, do is challenge old assumptions, look deeper into analyzing production, and try to eliminate variables.
This way, when you do hit a rough patch, your whole franchise doesn’t go down the drain and you end up struggling to stay ahead of the Nationals.
He’s also lying when he states that the Yanks tried to trade Swisher because he failed in the playoffs. That’s about as true as……..well……anything else he’s said.
Face it Bayonne. Sabermetrics is used in just about every organization in baseball. The Twins which by some articles are the last to use sabermetrics from what i understand. I believe i read even they will implement some form of use of it this season.
This constant battle against the use of it in baseball I do not understand for the life of me.
Unless your saying that every mlb team now is dumb for using sabermetrics in their organization your harping on Alderson’s supposed use of it when everyone else uses it as well is imo a waste of time.
Mind you these are people that make a living at this (player evaluations) and they depend on using what is available to them to get the best results possible. People that are way more knowledgeable than you or I will ever be at player evaluations.
You may think the use of it is dumb but when most of mlb uses what you claim to be dumb I have to lean to the side of mlb knowing a bit more than you do. No disrespect intended.
The Twins used to outsource their advanced stat building. Now, suppsoedly, they hired “a guy”, whatever that means.
The Yankees won because they had a homegrown core and signed a couple pieces to put them over the top.
“The Red Sox won because they traded for TWO dominating pitchers, and signed one of the best hitters in the game. Another good belief system: Trade for two of the best picthers in the game and then sign one of the best hitters in the game – Another good plan.”
Again, core of home growns and two guys they got very young on the cheap (Poppi and Manny)and using free agency and their deep farm system to aquire pieces to fill remaining holes.
“So that must mean the sabermetirc, moneyball(whatever you want call it) belief system is good right?”
All sabermetrics is is a deeper method of evaluating talent and production. Thats it. Its been going on in baseball since the Civil War.what is happenign now is teams are questioning old assumptions and gaining new perspective.
Moneyball was book written by Michael Lewis which chronicled the experiment that went on in Oakland. Everyone involved has already said Lewis took liberties in order to make a more appealing story. Please stop being stuck in 2005.
“It proves if you sign some of the best players in the game in FA”
Assuming they will fill the need you have. And assuming said free agent wants to come to your team. Free agency has value, but it shouldn’t be the center of your organizational philosophy.
” and trade for some of the best players in the game,”
Assuming you have assets the team you are trading with wants. How do you do that if your farm system is depleted?
Or are you a Yankee fan and just assume everyone wants to flock to your team and every other team exists simply to provide you with talent?
huh?
Saber is just a watse of time. The only thing the people who use them are right about is OBP, which isn’t even a saber stat. but they way overate it. Everything else is like WAR and BABIP, are just a waste.
And yes getting a good core of homegrown talent is another good plan. Nobody every thought of that one before….. But what does that have to do with sabermetrics?
I don’t care about the book moneyball, it’s just a term people use now. Do you have another name that I should call their belief system? It doesn’t matter anyway, you know what I’m talking about.
And I have no idea what you mean by “Please stop being stuck in 2005.” what are you talking about?
Its not a belief system. It is simply a method of analyzing and predicting production. thats it. Just an attempt to aquire more knowledge and eliminate outdated thinking.
“It is simply a method of analyzing and predicting production. thats it. Just an attempt to aquire more knowledge and eliminate outdated thinking”
You mean scouting? Maybe BABIP can help u determine what mediocre players is better than the other but good scouting takes care of the rest.
They already know what type of park the players play in and all those other things u like to put into numbers so u don’t need to see it numerized. I know, saying xFIP and oBWA does make you sound smarter though.
I wouldnt waste my time Donal. Bayonne knows that most teams already use a combination of scouting and sabermetrics in mlb. He just is having a hard time accepting it that’s all. In time he will come around.
The use of saber in the MLB is overated.
Former Angels GM Bill stoneman:
“We look at OPS, but it isn’t the sole deciding factor to whether we want a guy or not. What it is, it’s a measure of offense. Shoot, if we only looked at OPS, a year ago we wouldn’t have gone with Scott Spiezio as our first baseman.What we rely on very heavily are our own judgments and the judgments of our scouting people. We’re a scouting organization, and we really lean on our pro scouts as to what they see in a player. It’s really not what the guy did last year; it’s what you think he’s going to do this year or in the future.”
White Sox GM kenny Williams:
“I lean on my scouts, first and foremost. After my scouts tell me this is a player we should have interest in, I’ve got a few different methods in how we come to decisions.
I’m an old football guy, so I believe in film. I’ve spent a lot of hours watching film and breaking down some of the things numbers don’t tell you that scouts can’t see with the naked eye.”
former d-backs GM Joe Garagiola Jr:
“Maybe I’m hopelessly old school in this regard, but to me statistics that you can derive from sort of the basic building blocks I think have real value. I look at ‘Baseball Prospectus’ from time to time, and some of those stats are so arcane, dense, impenetrable–whatever the word you want to use is. I guess this is meaningful to somebody, but not me. It drills down so deeply, it’s like, ‘OK, when you hit the bottom, there are three people in the world that this matters to.’ ”
And those guys actually WON something unlike Billy Beane.
Vinny, that is exactly the point why ppl should not be freakin out over sabermetrics.
Teams use it in addition to other things to then form a better decision.
No one is saying teams r using it to replace scouting.
Why the Mets just recently announced they implemented a new covergae system for their scouts.
It is the combination of both scouting and sabermetrics that is what is being done around mlb not the use of one at the elimination of the other.
Great work Vinnie!
GREAT JOB! I’m saving that info.
Actually, I only count one World Series title among them. Where as three of the last seven World Series have been won by sabermetrically minded GMs.
Well. I was wrong. All three won World Series.
Stoneman and Williams don’t contradict anything I’ve said. I’ve never said you replace your scouting department with algorithms or anything. Its just a new tool to help evaluate the productivity and potential of players.
Garagiola just sounds overwhelmed.
There is no way in hell I am investing millions of dollars in an asset without getting as much information as possible. that includes statistical data and a human representative to go out, gather more data first hand and give his impressions of the prospect.
All that is really changing is the amount of data being gathered and just exactly which stats are given the most weight.
OPS is really just a quick glance stat. Not even a fantasy player wouldn’t want to look under the hood of it.
Scouting and projection is the life blood of an organization.
SABR is progressively less useful as you go down the ladder, from the Minors to college to high school.
SABR probably evolved from focused examination of things like OB and platoon splits. These have been around for 50 years.
Someday some of the SABR stats will be as widely used as ERA is now. Other ones will be discredited and still others will pop up.
I like some of the new numbers and if someone else doesn’t, that’s cool with me.
HOF GM Pat Gillick:
“I think you have to watch the game. The statistics tell you one thing and they don’t want anything happening emotionally on the field or anything on the field to really tinker with those statistics sometimes. So I think you have to use both. … I think you have to see the player and you have to see him on the field—how he plays the game. Is he intense? Does he have passion? Get his body language. See how he interacts with the other players on the team.”
special assistant to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr Charley Kerfeld:
“I think defensive statistics are the most unpredictable stats there are. And since I’ve been here, we don’t have an in-house stats guy and I kind of feel we never will. We’re not a statistics-driven organization by any means. I’m not against statistics. Everybody has their own way of doing things. But the Phillies believe in what our scouts see and what our eyes tell us and what our people tell us.”
So like I said saber isn’t as big in the MLB as some people make it out to be.
so………
Joe Garagiola Jr WS titles 1
Kenny Williams WS titles 1
Bill Stoneman WS titles 1
Pat Gilick WS titles 3
Billy Beane WS titles…..0
Sounds like the Mets should emulate the way the Phillies organization does things but they chose to do things like the A’s do.
Go figure. And you know what? Probably wind up with the same results.
Maybe now we’ll have 2 sets of post season awards – those celebrating World Series champions and another set for those who get the most bang for their buck even though they didn’t even make the playoffs.
footnote- People should remember Charlie Kerfield as that big, setup guy with the funny glasses for Dave Smith for Houston in 1986
Pat Gillick
“So I think you have to use both”
Ruben Amero’s assistant whose team has not won a WS under Amaro even though amaro inheritted a champion
“I think defensive statistics are the most unpredictable stats there are. ”
He’s right. It’s very hard to break down defense. Baseball Prospectus, Bill James, Fangraphs, pretty much everyone who is understands advanced stats says this. It probably will happen one day, but right now its a work in progress.
“And since I’ve been here, we don’t have an in-house stats guy and I kind of feel we never will. We’re not a statistics-driven organization by any means.”
That does explain Ryan Howard’s contract.
“Everybody has their own way of doing things. But the Phillies believe in what our scouts see and what our eyes tell us and what our people tell us”
As we all know, your eyes are never wrong. Just ask Hall of Famer, Kevin Maas.
Why does Billy Beane get so much credit? Larry Beinfest actually WON The WS with a 54 million dollar payroll for the Marlins – why didn’t anyone write a book about him?
“We’re not a statistics-driven organization by any means.”
That explains why they won the WS in 08 and made it back there the next year. and won the NL east 4 consecutive years.
This is what Donal’s arguments are all about –
Let’s pick one wrong element about the 1927 Yankees and focus on that. I”m sure their GM did something wrong……somewhere.
That’s the way Donal argues.
The fact that Cashman doesn’t discuss his philosophy about which players he imports doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a philosophy one way or the other.
The yankees under Gene Michael deviated from a philosophy that produced zero World Championships in 17 years and zero playoff appearances in 12 years.
That’s right. In the not too distant past the Yankees did not qualify for the post season TWELVE straight times. I’ll say it a different way. The “We must win the World Series every single year” Yankees did not even qualify for the post season TWELVE YEARS IN A ROW.
Gene Michael got some decent players to hold the fort and went to work on building a team that could compete for a World Championship every single year. He then dumped the Mel Halls, Danny Tartabulls, Charlie Hayes’, Mike Stanley’s, Matt Nokes. He even lived with Stankewitcx, Gaellgo, Espinosa, Sax and players of this sort in order to avoid taking something away from future teams.
He assembled a very talented core of players who all came up together, made some well thought out trades, added just a free agent or two and wound up with a team that formed the core of more than twice the number of World Series Championships that their early forays into free agency produced.
That, and the fact that the last low OB% position player the Yankees obtained was Mariano Duncan has formed the framework of a team that now has qualified for the post season FIFTEEN TIMES IN SIXTEEN YEARS AND WON 5 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS.
To not be able to see a correlation between the two things is to not be able to view why and how a baseball team achieves the results it does at such an unfathomably low level as to be almost beyond description.
The Indians? That’s a new one. I guess forget about big HR seasons by Manny, Jim Thome, David Justice, & old Giant Matt Williams…oh…and Albert Belle. Wow, can’t imagine the science & calculations used to get those guys.
Oh sure, the Yankees. Not only did signing Tex & CC seal the deal but breakout and historic CLUTCH performances out of nowhere by Alex Rodgriguez certainly helped too. Give me a break. Not even gonna get into Boston, been down that road before.
As for Tampa Bay, you mean solid scouting for guys like Langoria, Pena, & Upton had nothing to do with it huh? What about Troy Percival?
Gimme a break with these imaginary arguments.
The Indians of the early 90s focused on their young talent and used free agents to plug up some holes.
Bayonne, you really need to actually pay attention to what people are actually saying. When you make up lies about people and misrepresent what they say and omit other things, you portray yourself as a very dishonest person who should probably be ignored.
You’re not, are you?
“The Indians of the early 90s focused on their young talent and used free agents to plug up some holes.”
Umm, I never heard of a team that didn’t foucus on their young talent.
And how does that make the sabermetric belief’s right? That has nothing to do with saber – all teams try to do that, that’s nothing new.
No, all teams don’t try that. The namesake of this site hasn’t tried it for years. The Yankees of the 80s and early 90s didn’t try it.
They tried it your way. By signing big name free agents and trading for the name of the week.
So Omar never foucused on the farm?
yeah okay.
My way, what’s MY WAY? I believe in buliding the team through the farm also, so? does that mean I use saber? Then after that sign good players in FA or trade for them.
That’s my way, Donal, and I don’t use saber – go figure.
“So Omar never foucused on the farm? ”
He did but not good enough and after 6 years that was his downfall imo.
You have GOT to be kidding me right? SA should spend more time worrying about a BAD hitting coach then getting this team in order?
How he treated HOJO? I’ve read it all now.
I liked Howard a lot. He had a lot of pop as a player, less as a coach.
What Sandy did was offer Howard a ‘creative outplacement.’ It’s done all the time in large firms. I’m not making excuses for Sandy, just explaining that he might have been late in seeing a mismatch. Howard didn’t go for the outplacement. The Mets are poorer for losing a good guy.
The square peg and never goes with the round hole, so to speak. Howard might make a good staff person. I hope he catches on somewhere else soon.
In regards to Hojo or any past/future Mets player turned coach…
This is why I hate it when past fan-beloved Mets players are brought back to be coaches, because a coach is hired to eventually be fired, and it is like that in all sports. For all Mets legends out there, feel free to be a team consultant during spring training and whatever, but please don’t agree to be a coach, because the way this team is run, job security is not something that is common around here, and the last thing we need is another scourned Mets Legend who hates this team.
You mean Mookie is next?
Coaching has a pretty high turn over rate in most sports. And I don’t think a guy should be hired to coach just because he was good 20 years ago.
Not to worry Donal… When your boss sees what you do for HIS dollar you’ll be with HoJo. Employees who screw off all day vice doing their job aren’t long for their job either. Enjoy the unemployment line. You certainly are worthy of it.
I am the boss.
And once again, you prove yourself a hypocrite.
Harry C. — Mind your own business!!!
Vinny B All these quotes your posting don’t change the fact that in today’s MLB many if not most teams use Advanced Statistical Analysis along with scouting.
1.) Former Angels GM Bill stoneman:
“We look at OPS, but it isn’t the sole deciding factor to whether we want a guy or not.”
- Again establishing the point that it is a combination of both Advanced Statistical Analysis and other things in helping establish a decision.
2.) White Sox GM kenny Williams:
“I lean on my scouts, first and foremost. After my scouts tell me this is a player we should have interest in, I’ve got a few different methods in how we come to decisions.
I’m an old football guy, so I believe in film. I’ve spent a lot of hours watching film and breaking down some of the things numbers don’t tell you that scouts can’t see with the naked eye.”
- Again he is saying he has a few different methods in how he comes to decisions. He is not saying that people that use Advanced Statistical Analysis are wrong cause it doesn’t work.
3.)former d-backs GM Joe Garagiola Jr:
“Maybe I’m hopelessly old school in this regard, but to me statistics that you can derive from sort of the basic building blocks I think have real value. I look at ‘Baseball Prospectus’ from time to time, and some of those stats are so arcane, dense, impenetrable–whatever the word you want to use is. I guess this is meaningful to somebody, but not me. It drills down so deeply, it’s like, ‘OK, when you hit the bottom, there are three people in the world that this matters to.’ ”
- Again he is saying it is just something he doesn’t relate to.
4.)HOF GM Pat Gillick:
“I think you have to watch the game. The statistics tell you one thing and they don’t want anything happening emotionally on the field or anything on the field to really tinker with those statistics sometimes. So I think you have to use both. … I think you have to see the player and you have to see him on the field—how he plays the game. Is he intense? Does he have passion? Get his body language. See how he interacts with the other players on the team.”
- Again no one is saying Gillick is wrong for what he believes. His is one opinion among many GM’s and front office personal in baseball. It’s not about having to choose one or the other.
5.)special assistant to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr Charley Kerfeld:
“I think defensive statistics are the most unpredictable stats there are. And since I’ve been here, we don’t have an in-house stats guy and I kind of feel we never will. We’re not a statistics-driven organization by any means. I’m not against statistics. Everybody has their own way of doing things. But the Phillies believe in what our scouts see and what our eyes tell us and what our people tell us.”
- Again like he said everybody has their way of doing things. BTW I agree with him as far as defensive.
In the end none of these quotes prove anything more than that for them they don’t subscribe to Advanced Statistical Analysis in the capacity other teams do.
Red Sox use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Rangers use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Rays use Advanced Statistical Analysis
A’s use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Yankees use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Braves use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Mets use Advanced Statistical Analysis
To name a few.
My point is they use of advanced statistics in the MLB are overeated.
Sure some teams use them, but how much of an impact do they make on teams decisions? Not much.
Kenny Williams “I lean on my scouts, first and foremost.”
special assistant to Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr Charley Kerfeld “We’re not a statistics-driven organization by any means.”
Pat Gillick “I think you have to see the player and you have to see him on the field—how he plays the game. Is he intense? Does he have passion? Get his body language. See how he interacts with the other players on the team.”
Joe Garagiola “I guess this is meaningful to somebody, but not me.”
Bill Stone man “What we rely on very heavily are our own judgments and the judgments of our scouting people. We’re a scouting organization, and we really lean on our pro scouts as to what they see in a player.”
Sure they look at them, but it makes a very little impact on their decisions.
I don’t give a s**t what they base their decisions on as long as they turn out right for the Mets.
I agree I don’t think anyone is saying they are the major part but rather a part.
It’s about the union of all your resources not the use of one to the detriment of the other.
You follow me?
This idea that the Mets are going to abandon scouting for advanced statistical analysis is just in some people’s heads.
The reality is that the Mets will use both.
You not that i know you do but rather if you do should not feel threatened by the use of scouting / advanced statistical analysis.
Like I said other teams use this it’s not like the Mets are treading new ground here.
Red Sox use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Rangers use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Rays use Advanced Statistical Analysis
A’s use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Yankees use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Braves use Advanced Statistical Analysis
Mets use Advanced Statistical Analysis
We should be open to new ideas and judge them based on the results it provides the Mets not what it has provided other teams.
If after sometime we see its not working for us then by all means act accordingly.
Does that seem even semi reasonable to you?
“This idea that the Mets are going to abandon scouting for advanced statistical analysis is just in some people’s heads.”
Wow wait, I never said anything close to that. I don’t believe that the Mets are going to abandon socuting – I never said that.
Sorry was not referring to you specifically but rather people in general that argue that point. I should of made that more clear my bad.
Hey Donal, I’ll wait here. You go find five or six random quotes from sucessfull GMs with a saber background and post them. The I’ll cyber-back slap you, champion sabermetrics, and feel satisfied that those random quotes have completely proved and justified all of sabermetrics and shamed everyone that doesn’t use them. That sound good?
All I’m saying advanced statistics don’t have as much of an impact as some people would have you to believe – that’s it.
And I’m saying you’re right, because it’s in it’s relative infancy. All these new fangled statistics have been invented in hte last ten years or so, and new ways of looking at old stats are just as new.
But within the last decade, the list of teams that have embraced sabermetrics in any form have had combined successes far too large to ignore. Yanks, Red Sox, Rangers, Rays, A’s, Braves. Even the Padres have embraced it, and they missed the division by what, two games?
You can claim that signing CC and Tex were the keys to the Yanks winning, and that’s about as profound as someone saying the sun is hot. But what stats do you use to determine how good Tex is? His career .286 average? That’s solid, but what about that makes him the great hitter he is? You look at his OBP% and SLG% and see that those numbers are elite. That’s all it is. It’s a very simple concept.
You mentioned Gonzalez and Crawford. Well, Gonzalez has a career batting average of .284 and Crawford’s is .296, much better, but still not elite. How did Theo determine Crawford was an elite player? His steady progression of a .350+ OBP? His consistent .450+ SLG% from the leadoff spot? His 82% success rate stealing bases? Gonzalez’s .930 OPS his last two seasons, which are Hall of Fame numbers?
You gotta understand that sabermetrics is not at all what you think it is.
First thing I’m gonna look at with a guy like Mark Tex after his batting AVG is his HR & RBI, not his OBP. He’s paid to hit HRs and drive in runs. When I see his BA i’ll have a good idea is OBP is probably good so that exact number is not necessary.
That’s how you look at your good power hitters. Not OBP.
Crawford is a different story because he’s not a power hitter.
no sabermetrics needed.
That’s fine. Look at it how you want. The rest of it will look at it the right way.
No,
I think the right way is looking at Tex’s HR & RBI. That’s the right way.
I don’t care how many times he walked since I already know what type of hitter he is.
You just called the 2009 Mets the worst starting 9 in history..but they led the NL in hitting? They were on base. The problem was, the most important hitters – the RBI guys were all on the DL.
The way it’s always been done is the right way.
The Mets led the NL in hitting, and look where it got them. The Royals led the AL in hitting this year, and that worked out well for them, too. Batting average and a buck will get you a breakfast bagel.
And RBIs are an even worse tool. A high slugging hitter behind two or three high OBP guys = RBI. It’s not an innate talent. It’s your lineup that’ll determine who gets the RBIs, not the other way around.
The Mets led the NL in hitting and look where it got them? Again that’s because all the RBI guys were hurt.
The Royals led the AL in hitting? Did you know that nobody hit 20 HRs on that team? The most HRs hit was 16. Almost like the 2009 Mets – no RBI guys to drive them in.
You think driving in RBI is that easy huh? No pressure? That’s your job buddy. Look at David Wright? Lots of RBIs but……lots of men LOB in key spots too.
“A high slugging hitter behind two or three high OBP guys = RBI”
If you’re a power hitter that’s your job. Sure I could put Jose Reyes cleanup and he’ll probably get more RBIs but that doesn’t make sense now does it?
SO you think just because a guy is in the middle of the lineup he should get more RBIs and it’s not a talent. How do you think he got that job in the first place?
If the Blue Jays had had any base runners last year they would have scored 1,000 runs. Easy.
If you mean BA Mets were 13th in the NL in 2010. .249 BA. First?
Getting RBIs is not a talent. Hitting for power is. You’re right, it wouldn’t make much sense to bat Reyes cleanup, because he’s not a power hitter. And this:
“You just called the 2009 Mets the worst starting 9 in history..but they led the NL in hitting? They were on base.”
Stop with your lunacy. That league leading average resulted in a 7th place OBP.
7th in OBP? Not bad considering all their regular hitters were hurt. Haven’t teams won World Series with an even lower league OBP? I think so. In fact, I KNOW so.
Put some RBI guys there it changes everything. Period.
That’s pretty bad when you consider they led the league in batting. And of course teams that finished lower in OBP have won World Series. The Giants finished tenth. But we all know a high OBP doesn’t equate to winning. So what’s your point?
agee – we were talking about 2009 Mets- X knows that
If i said 2010 it was a typo. The 2009 Mets led the league in hitting – tied with LA I believe.
Got ya. Should have thought of that.
You can’t score with just OB or with SLG. You need both.
Higher HRs, or Higher BA, or Higher RBIs equate more to winning than just higher OBP.
OBP is better than HRs and BA. That’s easy to prove. Go look it up. It’s been that way for 150 years. As far as RBIs, it’s a result, the same as the runs scored number is. It’s not the factor that BA, OBP and SLG is. But you know that already.
HRs and BA is better than OBP. Again all the Mets power hitters were hurt in 2009 despite leading the league in hitting at .270
Oh, and if all the HR/RBI guys were not hurt? The team OBP would’ve been higher too.
It’s been that way for over 150 years.
No, go ahead and look it up. Which teams score more runs, the teams with the higher OBP, the higher BA or the higher HR totals. Go ahead.
X, I have to question Theo’s decision to go 7 years with Crawford.
The length is a little concerning if I were a Red Sox fan, but the type of player he is now is without question.
I never even look at stats like SLUg% and OPS and I knew those guys were great players.
So you think I only look at their averages? Teixeria hit 30 HR’s and drove in over 100 Runs almost every year. That’s what I use to determine how good he is, and his average is good too. Same thing with Gonzalez.
Oh and I do look at OBP’s for somebody like Crawford, I just don’t value it as much as you do. He hits for a good average, he steals a lot of bases and has some pop, so yeah he’s a good player.
You realize that the job of a hitter is to not make outs right? That’s why OBP, OPS & wOBA are better tools to utilize than BA. BA is pretty non-descriptive & doesn’t tell you what kind of hits the player is getting. Also, RBIs are primarily dependent on the hitters in front of you, and counting stats are really bad to use in general.
RBI’s are NOT primarily dependent on the hitters in front of you, they are depending on the guy at bat to drive them in. Saber people look at things backwards.
The entire sentence “You realize that the job of a hitter is to not make outs right?” bugs the hell out of me. It’s baseball backwards.
That’s like saying you wake up each day not to die.
The slugger has been just that all his life & if you’re good enough you become a professional. A team full of table setters is gonna score LESS than a team full of middle order men.
For someone like Gonzalez his job is to drive in runs, so that’s one of the things he should be measured by.
The game is about HITTING, if you can’t hit you’re not going to make it in this league, so at stat that shows you how good you hit is a good stat.
And for middle of the lineup guys RBI is very important. I’d want to have that 100 + RBI guy in the middle of my lineup, you know the guy that steps up to get big hits for you’re team, rather than a guy who has a high OBP or a high slug%, that hits a bunch of meaningless solo HR’s in blowouts.
Of course RBIs are primarily dependant on the hitters in front of you. If they’re not on base, who’s the guy at bat gonna drive in? You have it all backwards.
Nope, you have it backwards X,
The guys on base depend on the RBI guy.
Again, a team of table setters with allegedly high OBP will score less than a team of sluggers. Your middle of the order guys are good hitters anyway.
The RBI guy can do the table setter’s guy but not the other way around.
If you switch the lineup up and led off with Texeira and A-Rodz and put the top of the order guys in the middle – you will score LESS RUNS
It’s pretty obvious Tex and A-Rod at the top of the order and Jeter and Gardner 4th and 5th would score fewer runs. They don’t hit for enough power. Nice analysis, coach.
But you said RBIs are less important than OBP.
Let’s put Canseco & MacGwire up 1&2 and put Ricky Henderson & Carney Lansford in the middle….Henderson may actually pull it off a little but still that’s not how it works. You’ll score less runs.
The RBI guys are more important than the OBP guys. That the point.
It will ALWAYS be that way.
i’ll assume u never coached so……..
hey, being involved in the game for many years doesn’t hurt and gives you a good perspective as long as your smart.
Finally you get it! Putting the power behind the OBP will result in more runs than putting leadoff-type guys behind sluggers. Tremendous job.
Right, smart use of RBI guys will win you games.
OBP guys? You can put them anywhere even at the bottom of the lineup if u want to hit the pitcher 8th.
Baseball knew what was most important right from the beginning.
Eddie Gaedel has a career 1000 OBP – but he wouldn’t be able to drive in runs.
Smart use of the power guys will win you games. The RBIs will accumulate if there’s enough guys on base in front of him when he gets his extra-base hits.
nah,
He can win a game in the bottom of the 9th with a HR and nobody on base.
You can have 3 guys walk, have a great OBP inning…and lose.
The more I see this debate about RBI and OBP I get the sense it sounds more and more like which came 1st the chicken or the egg?
Sure. No one said OBP guarantees winning. But you also used a very extreme example. Name me one guy or one team that hits more home runs than draws walks. OBP is a better stat because it works more often than any other. But not all the time. But you already know that.
Oh please,
RBIs is the thing. Off the top of my head Joe Dimaggio & Yogi Berra would probably come close to HRs and BBs being equal.
I’m only interested in WINNING, an RBI or HR in bottom of the 9th WINS. Not a walk.
You can have an 9 innings leave the bases loaded all 9 innings, do that 162 times a year, not score and have the highest team OBP in history.
Give me one hit a game, a HR against that team and my team wins with the WORST OBP in history.
Those are extreme examples but it’s to drive a point home.
Back to regular baseball give me the HR guy, RBI guy, or high AVG guy anytime of the high OBP guy
That’s if you want to WIN. That’s what i’m interested in more than statistics.
But i concede to you this – if they one day have an awards night for Most Bang for the Buck…you’ll probably be nominated.
I dont’ think that will have anything to do with winning though.
oh god, the RBI vs. OBP debate again. so much fun the last 10 times!
BA is not important by itself. no more so than OBP. A team of .300 hitting Castillos from 2009 still won’t score any runs, with no power. same with his .387 OBP.
no one is arguing that OBP is all that matters, but it has been proven that if you can increase the OBP of the whole lineup, including the sluggers, the team will score more runs. And without having to depend on HRs.
wonderful if your #4 hitter can hit .300. But if he has a .400 OBP instead of a .320 OBP, the #5 hitter is going to have way more RBIs, and the team will score more runs.
late 90s Yankees perfected this. Not a big HR hitting team (individuallY, but they all worked counts, and had high OBP. wore out pitching staffs, kept the line moving, and score a boatload of runs.
High OBP players with little power up top, and in the middle power guys is obvious. But the superstar middle order guys (Manny, Bonds, Pujols, etc.) were special not just from their HRs (Kingman could hit plenty) but because they also had huge OBP.
Yogi Berra: 358 HRs, 704 BBs
Joe DiMaggio: 361 HRs, 790 BBs
What else do you have off the top of your head?
“I’m only interested in WINNING, an RBI or HR in bottom of the 9th WINS. Not a walk.”
Wait, who said anything about a walk? I’m talking about a high OBP.
there is a tiny flaw with the argument that Sandy is a “saberdevil” and is running the team from a spreadsheet.
One of the key changes he has done so far is implement MORE scouts, and having scouts spread a lot less thin.
seems a saber only guy would have less, not more!
there are plenty of quotes from the big saber fan FO guys that it is another tool in the toolbox. Not a replacement for scouting, not an end all be all, just one more thing to look at.
the whole point of talent acquisition is getting an edge over the 29 other guys doing the same thing. Any possible edge you can come up with is huge. so hell yeah, a GM is smart to look at advanced statistics to try and identify trends that lead to more wins.
and bottom line, all a GM wants is wins. Not saber #s, not accolades for being smart. And the core goal of sabermetrics is to try and analyze thousands of games, millions of ABs, to try and figure out what has the highest correlation with generating those wins.
but it makes no difference if you know what makes a player good if you can’t find those guys. meaning scouting.
Everyone knows that Werth is good. and Crawford is good. But no one, eyes only, can really say which one (given a choice) is likely to lead to more wins.
and why get so upset if all the saber analysis says that defense is worth spending on, or power is worth more than OBP, or whatever it shows? The GM still has to go out and find players, not numbers.
scouts look at tons of guys that put up showy BB card #s, and don’t consider them to be good future players. and other that they project to be better. based on experience, and that isn’t going to change.