11
2011
Splitsville: Brad Emaus Inside The Numbers
You can call this a companion post to Jim Mancari’s earlier post on Brad Emaus. I want to touch on another few concerns I have with Brad Emaus and this fan-wide enthusiasm that he was the steal of the Rule 5 Draft and that he’ll win the second base job this spring. Not so fast.
In addition to the points Jim laid out, I found some troubling information from looking at his splits.
Sometimes you can look at a players stats for an entire season or career and you come away with a certain perception of that player. But it’s amazing how dramatically that perception can change once you look at that players home/road or left/right splits.
Rule 5 selection Brad Emaus, is the perfect example.
Emaus has garnered most of the attention this offseason mostly because he has the most upside among the few low-key signings on offense this winter. Many fans, bloggers and beat writers alike seem to have him pegged as the favorite at second base, but I’m still very skeptical. As most of you know by now, I’m very high on Daniel Murphy.
Home/Road Splits
Last season, Emaus split his time between Double-A and Triple-A for the Toronto Blue Jays. His stats were very promising to say the very least.
| Lev | G | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA-AA | 125 | 534 | 79 | 15 | 75 | 13 | 81 | 69 | .290 | .397 | .476 | .874 |
The first thing that jumps out at you is his very high .397 OBP and even more impressive is his BB/K ratio. Anytime you have a hitter who can walk more than he strikes out, you know you might have someone special on your hands. Both marks indicate a player who knows how to get on base, but also exhibits great patience at the plate 0 a selective hitter. His SLG and OPS also show he has some pop in his bat. So far, Emaus looks like a prototypical number two hitter to me.
However, we have to be aware of two important things that these stats don’t tell us:
1. The fact he put up most of these numbers in one of the most hitter-friendly environments in the minor leagues.
2. His home/road splits leave plenty of room for doubt.
Last season in Triple-A, Emaus hit .298/.395/.495 with 25 doubles, 10 HR and 50 BB and 50 K in 309 AB in 87 games.
Check out his home and road splits.
Home: .338/.408/.609 – 12 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 17 BB, 27 K – 41 G, 151 AB
Road: .259/.383/.386 – 13 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 33 BB, 23 K – 46 G, 158 AB
Look at his home run split of 9 vs 1, as well as his disparaging stat line which shows his OPS to be almost 300 points higher at home in the thin air of Las Vegas.
Now imagine him playing half his games at the gargantuan Citi Field.
Left/Right Splits
Even more troubling are the lefty/righty splits which give me even more cause for concern.
Emaus opted to play winter ball this offseason for the Tors del Este in the Dominican Republic.
Versus LHP 29 AB - 13 H - 4 BB - 0 K - .448 BA - .515 OBP - .690 SLG - 1.205 OPS
Versus RHP 98 AB - 21 H - 9 BB - 29K - .214 BA - .294 OBP - .378 SLG - .671 OPS
Those 98 at-bats against right-handed pitching scream PLATOON! Small sample size? Possible, even though it represents a full season of winter ball. If anyone else has minor league splits for his career, I invite you to post them on this thread.
All I’m saying is don’t discount the fact that Daniel Murphy will get the majority of at-bats at second base this season. It can, and I believe will happen.
Not much has been made of this because minor league splits are very difficult and almost impossible to come by, but I just happened to get lucky and came across these splits via his Dominican Winter League profile.
It’s not just the splits!
FanGraphs posted that “his defense is below average for second base”, while Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, threw another log into the fire and said:
Emaus didn’t make the Jays’ protected roster because of a roster room issue most likely. He had a reputation at time of being a baseball rat – and at other times of not always giving 110%. I’ve heard various running times at first base when talking to scouts. He was much better this year, but his numbers at Triple-A were highly inflated because of the park.
I said it before and I’ll say it again – Emaus might be the favorite for the second base job going into spring training, but I’m betting Daniel Murphy actually wins the job when all is said and done. At the very least, Murphy will win the lion’s share of playing time in a platoon.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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An article by Craig Lerner




Right on Craig. Murphy will win the job. Emaus may be a backup or maybe Evans with Hu taking S/S and 2nd base. Your comments about not playing 100% are troubling.Maybe thats why he was moved out. That cant be said about the Murph who plays 150% at all times. Terry notices players like Murphy and wants them on his team.
Murphy WILL NOT WIN THE STARTING 2B JOB for this team or any other team. You got that?
Do you realize what you have to do to excel at 2B? Do you understand what type of athlete it takes to play 2B? And at this level?
Knock it off already or put your money where your mouth is!
Maybe Craig Lerner is a idiot like you Bayonne. All blogers if they mention Murphy are wrong. Give it up Bayonne.
I’m all for Murphy playing 2nd if he can field. Otherwise you can not base an opinion on 98 AB’s. Means nothing, we have no idea what this kid is, to me the best thing I’ve heard is he plays hard. AS does Murphy and Jason Bay, if we start to assemble guys like that it could only be good
Obviously a good hitter’s park will inflate the numbers but take a look at his road OBP, it’s still high and he seems to improve his ratio of BB to K’s on the road as his average drops. Also his doubles stay the same and he gains more triples, the only thing that seemed to really suffer on the is his HR power and his BA.
I don’t think the Mets took him because they thought he was going to provide power at 2B, I think they took him because he’s a selective hitter, the anti-Francoeur if you will, and that doesn’t seem to suffer in the road splits.
Oh how the mighty have fallen…. happy little metsies used to wonder if Wright or Reyes could be league MVPs and if Santana could be Cy Young. Now you wonder if some clunky Rule 5 draft pick can be your savior. SNL can’t match you guys.
Just remember we will all meet at the Shea Apple 90 minutes before gametime on Opening Day OK? Don’t forget to wear your Blue & Orange Mets Jersey on the outside of your clothing that day.
Also Jim Mancari pointed out that Emaus has a rep of not giving 100%. The numbers don’t tell you that, that’s a red flad and should be watched because I don’t want players who don’t give their all on the Mets. Those type of players usually belong on losing clubs.
bayonne it doesnt matter how or why you play well. if you can hit and get on base without max effort, then you are helping the team.
I fully support a platoon at 2B. Perfect solution when you don’t have an obvious option to be a FT guy, and when a number of your choices have notable L/R splits, defensive issues, etc. But mostly the splits.
If Emaus and Murphy both show basically acceptable D the odds are that the total production from them platooning will be much higher than either one playing every day.
I would actually love turner as the RH part of it too. He absolutely mashed LHP last season (OPS above 1.0), and not in a hitters park.
Hell, maybe havens will show up all nice and strong, and blow everyone away in ST and take the job. He is just as reasonable an option as Emaus, with no ML experience!
and if he doesn’t win it, if whoever does get the job doesn’t light the world on fire, Haven could be on the Ike plan. Couple big (and of course, healthy) months (weeks?) at AA/AAA, and get him on up to the show.
Murphy at second? did anyone see him in left? At first? If he could hit he might be a DH.
Thanks for the shout out Craig
i must have missed the memo….when was luis castillo traded?once again,now more than ever,if freddye wilpon pays u he plays u.at what point does reality set in with this group.maybe opening day when castillo is kicking balls all over the infield.or maybe dropping a two out ninth inning popup!or maybe when he srikes out looking with the go ahead run on third with one out.that point will never come for some people.habitual whimsical speculation seems to be the norm….hey its better than facing the cold,hard truth.
Sorry Craig didnt mean that you were an idiot and I hope you didnt take it that way.Bayonne and his comments are always against Murphy saying he will never play 2nd base anywhere. I hope that Murphy will prove him wrong.
Here’s a simple conclusion, Emaus will likelyy platoon with Murph @ 2B as Murph is the LH compliment he’ll naturally get the prponderance of abs since most pitchers are RH and regarding Emaus’ H/R splits since when is a .259/.383/.386 a BAd THING? .383 OBP? Sign me up for a few of them right now! Uggla,Kent & Utley are ALL defensively less offensively more 2B options not that Emaus will everreach those hights; but I certainly recall Teuffel having a yeoman level career. as a less than Alomarish 2B. Possibly between Murph & Emaus we may all be screaming even for Castillo’s D to return.lol
c’mon 62, you’ve been around awhile – no way is Murphy gonna be playing 2B, can you imagine him diving in the hole and throwing from his knees? Or leaping over sliding runners and firing to 1B? Or running over and backing up Reyes on stolen base attempts – much less actually receiving the throw and applying a quick tag? No way. He’s not that type of athlete – HE COULDN”T EVEN PLAY LF!
That’s what he should’ve done in winter ball – work on OF play.
Bayonne, you’re 100% correct I can’t possibly imagine Murphy doing any of those things; but neither can I imagine the Braves’ Uggla doing them either let alone @ 2B in an ASG in the late innings no less!
Bay, it’s called PERSPECTIVE!
It’s called talent. You project Murphy to hit like Uggla? I don’t. Also Uggla may not be the best defensively but he’s still a trained 2B, Murph is not.
No Bay, I’d never expect Murph to hit like Uggla just as u should never demand him to field like Alomar. as examples each are comparable on the rediculous scale. Your litany of aerobics around the basg couldn’t be relied upon from Cano 2-3 yrs ago.
When did I demand him to field like Alomar? My opinion is I don’t see him being able to play the position. He couldn’t play LF or 1B that good, how can he play 2B? Not happening. And he’s magically not gonna develop into one. His best bet is as a fill in at all these positions. He’ll be very valuable to the Mets off the bench.
My scenario wasn’t about aerobics either. It’s what you have to do to play the position. Thought you knew better.
Bay, see your criteria copied here;” can you imagine him diving in the hole and throwing from his knees? Or leaping over sliding runners and firing to 1B? Or running over and backing up Reyes on stolen base attempts – much less actually receiving the throw and applying a quick tag?”
As I said I have difficulty envisioning many 3b performing those aerobics Ugla,Utley,Kent,Johnson to name a few. I liosted Johynson because I noticed he can’t go to his right hardly at all.
He made about 5 bad plays in LF that he wouldn’t have made if he had a full year of playing there under his belt. His arm was not that good out there but he did have some range when he took the right route.
Subtracting Endy in that injured JJ Putz trade hurt Murphy in two ways. He lost the risk mitigating Chavez who would have or should have been out there in the 7th 8th and 9th innings which would have been a huge help and then they went out and got Shefield to pair him with.
imagine if your trying to break into the Majors, hit enough to stick, are asked to learn a completely new position and then at the last minute your GM brings in a guy who’s probably going to the HOF and is probably only interested in getting 10 more HR’s to reach 500 for his career. Some well conceived roster idea that was.
Murphy covered so much more of 1B compared to Delgado it was unreal. Unfortunately he was very rough around the bag and with all the finer points of 1B. That is one very very hard position to learn how to play on the job, let alone while your fighting for your Major League life.
Overall Murphy’s bat was never going to be even average from a HR standpoint at LF or 1B and a doubles hitter with no one on base doesn’t do much for your bottom line.
Whatever Murphy’s failings were in LF and 1B were more the failings of the organization in counting on a rookie infielder to be an everyday outfielder on a team expected to compete for a pennant. The organization failed to properly project where Murphy would have the most upside. 15-20 HR’s as a ceiling usually prohibits you from playing 1B or LF,(unless you do some other things great) his arm precluded him from RF, he’s not built for the middle and yet he can put up 50 or even 60 xtra base hits. What else was left? Catcher at the very worst he could have been a 3rd catcher, pinch hitter, backup in LF, 3B and 1B which would have been a good use of a roster spot. At best he could have been a LH hitting Brian McCann.
Just like no one thought about putting Izzy in the bull pen (and just think about how different things might have been if they did) no one properly projected where Murphy’s all around assets and detriments would play the best.
That’s nothing new around here it’s been going on for decades.
Failing to Project WHERE our prospects will most likely play has been 2nd only to drafting bust after bust in the early rounds of the draft.
Murphy’s best chance to be a full timer would have been at catcher and the worse that could have happened is he could have been a 3rd catcher and backup LFer, 3B and 1B and pinch hitter.
His bat really isn’t enough for LF or 1B on it’s own and his feet aren’t quick enough for the middle.
Get lost Bayonne, you Murphy Hater.
What is a baseball rat Craig. Is it like ratting out people to others?
every here of a basketball gym rat? Same thing, but a guy that is always hanging around the field, looking to play.
Thanks for your answer.
i say once again is luis castillo still on this team.ignoring him will not make louie or his salary go away. nice try peoples…..