18
2011
Spending Wildly Versus Getting Value
An article by Craig Lerner
I will be the first to admit that I am giving the new front office every single benefit of the doubt. I mean why not? They’ve only been in charge a little over four months – hardly enough time to pass judgment on the new guys.
Patrick Flood who writes for SNY, had me re-thinking my whole attitude on the matter after reading his excellent post which I suggest you all do.
Oftentimes, fans who are sabermetrically inclined are accused of being un-objective and relying solely on stats, and of course there is no logic or truth to that and it’s all unfounded.
Flood’s post proves that we can be as objective as all of you old schoolers who like to scoff at the idea of finding new and improved ways of evaluating players and thus making better decisions. He takes a very un-objective look at all the Mets offseason activity and asks himself, would I be defending this offseason with as much vigor if it was Omar Minaya making these moves instead. A wonderful question and one that should be asked – and answered.
Like myself, Flood is pleased with what the Mets have done this offseason. Basically, under the most difficult of circumstances and without a penny to spare, they made some decent moves and brought in a bunch of useful players on the cheap. Many of those players have the kind of upside that can pay of big this season in the same manner as R.A. Dickey did last season. Were there some head-scratchers in the lot? Of course there were and that was to be expected.
But getting back to Flood’s post, he writes:
Here’s the thing: Now I’m even starting to doubt myself. I think I like the players the Mets have brought in, I think I like what the team did this winter, but I’m wondering why. Not just because of what someone over at ESPN thinks; I’ve been wondering this for a while. Every minor signing the Mets have made this offseason – and they’ve all been minor signings — I’ve liked. I see the upside. But do I like new guys because I think they’re good . . . or do I like them because the new front office brought them in, and I’m just happily drinking the sabermetric Kool-Aid?
The sabermetric Kool-Aid, Ahh how refreshing – Shall I pour you some? Flood delves even deeper into his question and then brings an old friend into it – Omar Minaya.
See, at this point last year, I was ragging on the Mets for bringing Mike Jacobs and Gary Matthews Jr., among others, to the team. Part of that was because Jacobs and Matthews were . . . let’s just say they probably shouldn’t have been playing major league baseball. But it was also based on the assumption that, if Omar Minaya was doing something, it was probably a bad idea… Now I’m worried that, because I’m so excited about the team being run by the SABR Stonecutters, I can’t see any of their mistakes. I think I’m rooting extra hard for Alderson players to do well, looking for their positives, as if it’d be some sort of victory for facts if they did well. I’d love to have goggles that could let me see what I’d be writing if Omar Minaya were running the team and signing the exact same players. Would I be hating on everything?
I have felt the same exact way. In fact I would bet that thousands upon thousands of Mets fans who were thirsting for change, have felt this same way too. Furthermore I would add that because we are so focused on stats and performance, we couldn’t ignore some of the horrifying metrics of players that were signed this offseason, even if we tried.
But one important thing that many are forgetting and must be considered is this:
None of the players that were signed will have a guaranteed salary of over $1.5 million dollars.
None of the new players will get overpaid the way Fernando Tatis, Julio Franco, Jose Valentin, Luis Castillo, Jeff Francoeur and countless others were overpaid by the Minaya regime.
Therein lies the biggest difference between Sandy Alderson and Omar Minaya:
Spending Wildly versus Getting Value.
Unfortunately, we are seeing Alderson and Co. operating without the tens of millions of dollars that Omar was given each offseason to fund his insane and exorbitant spending sprees.
Imagine how much better off we will be next offseason when we use this new philosophy and couple it with the money needed to upgrade the team in a more substantive way?
Omar Minaya used to take great joy in being the highest bidder, while Alderson on the other hand takes great joy in finding value and giving the Mets the most bang for the buck.
Why would anyone disagree with an approach like that?
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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I have said more than I can remember that I am giving Alderson the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. This is the same that i did for Minaya when he took over as GM with his background and reputation for scouting and finding players.
By last season I had given Minaya 6 seasons to impress and me and I no longer was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. So of course when he brought Jacobs in I didnt look at it the same as i may have looked at it in his 1st year as GM where i was still giving Minaya the benefit of the doubt.
Now here is Alderson and maybe in 3 years i may start to feel the way I did with Minaya in his last season as GM and not to looking at his moves with the same eyes as I do today.
Come back in 3 years and I will know if Alderson too is going to start hearing the buzz saying maybe it;s time for him to go as well.
Omar may have spent wildly on the guys you listed but those guys are not important, they’re backups. So if Alderson is a genius for signing mediocre players at less than mediocre prices then glad you’re happy. Just don’t expect top shelf results.
As for top shelf, that’s the lineup. One of the better lineups around. That part was done by Omar Minaya. You forgot to mention that.
Genius?
Whoever says that I wouldn’t waste my time repeating their opinion Bayonne.
Clearly calling “any GM” a genius for signing a low budget player without knowing what that player will result doing in the season is getting ahead of oneself.
Ya, Valentin ,Castillo and Farnceour weren’t starters. Perez wasn’t paid to start. Putz was a low risk pick up. Not like we mortgaged the future on him. Moises Alou was never intended to be the full time left fielder.
You realize people are just saying give Alderson a chance, right? That the old ways have failed and that a new method is due?
I gave Omar a chance. I was excited that the Super Scout was going to come in and bring up a core group of home grown talent to go with Wright and Reyes. Thats what we were sold. He didn’t do that. It became evident by year 5 that if he did have a plan going in, he had scrapped it and was now grasping at straws.
So Omar didn’t bring up home grown guys. WOW!!! LIES or just plain old pure unadlutlerated hate for the guy. Let’s see all the homegrown guys he didn not bring up… Hmm.. First base ding ding …I guess Davis isn’t home grown…starters ding ding ding…. I guess Pelfrey isn’t home grown…I guess Niese isn’t home grown.. I guess Gee who will be in the rotation sooner vice later isn’t homegrown….. Gee bullpen…ding ding ding… I guess future closer Parnell isn’t home grown….. Hmmm even Pagan… ding ding ding…Omar let him go but I guess he was smart enough to get him back an’t homegrown. How about Tejada, He’ll be back sone… ding ding ding. not homegrown…How about Murphy, 2nd baseman or utility guy you he wasn’t hhome grown either… Ohh ohh lets look at the not homegrown guy the Mets have at catcher Thole/… Where oh where did he come from… Hey Donal, if you are gonna lie at least get it from the experts Sandy and Fred and Jeff. When you lie yourself it is just too easy to show you fro the fake you are. So tell us Donal; if you are telling the truth where did all those kids come from if not from Omar’s farm…???? REALLY tell us DONAL!!
OK, I’m going to try to answer you, but I don’t speak Lunatic too well, so you’ll have to give me some slack…
Ya, Omar had 1 good draft and put in the youngins at gunpoint because his $140 million payroll was a MASH unit. Why did it take 6 years to get a productive group of home grown players that he drafted to get 3 of them on the big elague roster Opening Day? Not counting Pagan because he was reaquired in a trade.
Why didn’t Omar think enough of Davis and Thole to have them on the Opening Day roster when the guys who did start at their respective positions were painfully bad?
Why were Milledge, FMart and Meijia rushed?
The last seven drafts before Omar got here produced only 3 decent players. The three drafts before that one produced 6 future Major leaguers but we only signed two of them. (AJ Burnett and Nelson Figueroa)
That’s ten years of drafts that resulted in only Wright, Pagan and Bannister returning any value for us.
Omar got a lot of depth to our system but between injury, washout, stagnation and being forced to draft less talented players because of slotting guidelines he ran out of time.
His early IFA’s didn’t come through, many of his pitchers busted, he gave away and then failed to take back numerous draft choices when he had the chance. He probably figured that with the Wilpon insistence of drafting less talented but easier to sign picks they weren’t worth it.
Most of his high risk/high ceiling prospects are centered in low A and rookie ball. The book on Omar will be open for another ten years.
His 2005 draft was very good but he did reassign the drafting coordinator a couple of months after that draft and subsequent drafts didn’t work out that well.
Pagan was drafted by Phillips.
Omar didn’t have anywhere near the tragic washout rate of early round picks of Phillips or Duquette and did have some bad luck with Havens and Holt.
Kunz was the singular most asinine 1st round draft choice I have ever seen.
Davis and Pelfrey were 1st rounders who look good as you hope all your first rounders will after all 75% of them make it here to varying results.
Niese at 5, Parnell at 9 and especially Gee at 21 were very good picks.
Omar tried to build a Champion at the same time as a farm. That’s a near immposability to do both at the same time.
Omar leaves the farm in the best shape it’s been since our last World Championship.
I wonder if he would have employed a different strategy if he was allowed to draft over slot prospects like everyone else does.
I did not know Angel Pagan was drafted by Steve Phillips. So now that’s 3 current Mets starters in that were drafted under Phillips watch. And he last worked here about 8 years ago?
That’s the way it always is with GM’s Bayonne. Typically what happens in the prior 5-10 years prospect wise has the most effect on what the next guys options are.
What a shot in the arm it is to have an Ike Davis come up and play pretty well for you. He didn’t cost you any prospects, draft picks or subtraction from your 25.
All new GM’s benefit (or not) from the work they or their predessor did (or didn’t do) in the previous 5 years.
Alderson should benefit from some of Omar’s picks, Omar benefitted from 3 guys Phillips produced and was absolutely crushed by Duquette’s asinine trade of Kazmir. Phillips was also the beneficiary of Mcillvaine’s and Hunnsiker’s drafts that included the following that he brought up and/or traded: Bobby Jones, Jason Izringhausen, Preston Wilson, Billy Koch, Vance Wilson, Terrance Long, Jay Payton and AJ Burnett.
Among the players drafted before Phillips became GM that really would have helped him were Darren Erstadt, Aaron Rowand, Garrett Atkins, Jeremy Guthrie, and David DeJesus.
Unfortunately, despite correctly scouting these future major leaguers we didn’t sign any of them and considering how many “holes” we always have to fill it is an area of the business that we cannot afford to let quality future Major Leaguers get away.
If you were to add Darin Erstadt’s 2000 with Anaheim to our 2000 World Series team I think everyone would agree that things could have been quite a bit different. Check out his 2000 w/Anaheim.
.355/409/541 25 HR’s, 121 RS, 100 RBI. Think we could have found room for him in our outfield?
This is where the Wilpon ownership has really failed the fans over and over again.
The list of players we have correctly scouted AND drafted, and then not signed is sickening and was then followed by 8 years of de emphasizing scouting, drafting, signing and developing the best talent possible in exchange for some of the worst free agent and trade acquisitions in the history of the game, going all the way back to the end of Frank Cashen’s run and encompassing the entire tenure of the Wilpon’s ownership.
PAY THEM to give up their free rides and convince them to start on their professional career’s early. In the long run it is much less expensive to do so then to go free agent all the time and frequently MUCH better for the team and fans too.
LoL your kidding right Bayonne? I have to believe your just having some fun with T Agee. Right?
Cause if you want to give Phillips credit for drafting a guy back in 1999 whose debut in a Mets uniform came a decade later in 2008. Well I just don’t know if I could take that seriously?
The point though MNJ is that Phillips and his staff did identify, draft AND sign a player who has played well here at the ML level. Granted his development was slower than you would like but nontheless he was a 4th round draft choice that had we taken someone who didn’t make it up here we would not have had his outstanding performance over the last year and a half.
I’ll take that over a flat out bust anyday.
All prospects progress at different rates, some washout, some can’t stay on the field, some are just bad choices to begin with.
The list of things that can derail even a great draft choice is endless. Car accidents, gambling, drugs, dog fighting anything can happen. Add those things to an already difficult assignment like prospect projection, signability and development and it becomes clear that you need to devote an enormous amount of time, effort, money, resources, attention and anything else you can think of to lessen the risk, increase the odds and hasten the development of all your prospects.
The more prospects you have and the more you do those things the less chances your going to “have holes to fill.”
The more holes you have to fill the more chances of making a mistake that costs you years and sizeable payroll as well as other assets like picks and prospects.
Reece Havens could have two bang up seasons and be here in September 2012 for good or he could develop slower like Pagan did. You never know how it’s going to work out but having more prospects is much better than having fewer.
thats too much of a stretch for me sorry. I know this is a stretch as well but that would be like giving credit for the man that drafted Dickey due to the year Dickey had last year.
Pagan didnt see the bigs till 7 yrs later after he was sold to the Cubbies. Then was traded for back to the Mets sometime later.
Sorry T Agee but on this we will have to agree to disagree.
drafting guys is one part of the puzzle. knowing what to do with them (keep/trade, and how to develop) is a whole nother issue.
like NJ said, pagan was given away for nothing. so what that they got him back? No different than saying Burnett was drafted by the mets, or any other player that they traded away.
Far be it from me to defend Phillip’s drafts but the fact is his staff did identify a guy who was 18 years old and has played well up here and that’s really the point I’m making.
Scouting and drafting is the lifeblood of building a baseball team. Trades come from having something desirable to other teams. Free agency should just be an ancillary approach as much as the other end (non-tenders, waivers rule 5′s)
Drafts and IFA’s should form 50% bare minimum of your 25 man roster and they should include 5 of your best ten players. Bare minimum.
Facts are Phillips did draft a guy in the 4th round who can play either OF at a gold glove caliber, with an arm, hit for average, some power and runs the bases like a demon and he was one of our top 5 players in 2009 and 2010.
All things being equal we watch (or not) GMJ all summer long last year.
For a team that is always as needy at so many different positions every single year, year after year, we really aren’t in a position to complain when one of our draft choices does turn out and play well for us.
Not the same ANY. Pagan, because of injury and illness didn’t develop quickly enough to avoid being poached by the rule 5 draft. Omar moved him out and then got him back and he HAS provided value to us.
Burnett also provided value, we traded him for Al Leiter.
That’s the whole point of the draft, IFA and the farm in general. To provide value for your organization. As long as you retain SOME of that value it can bring you more down the road.
Koosman brought us Orosco who became Viola who became our starting SS one year Tony Fernandez.
Jim Fergosi became Nolan Ryan who became Dennis Rasmussen who became Tommy John. That’s a lot of good innings pitched for a 30 year old SS over a 15 year period.
Start building enough “value chains” and it keeps you from making the franchise crippling disasters in the free agent market because you have so many “holes to fill.”
Know who’s a great example of this theory? None other than the Atlanta Braves who have been in the playoffs 15 times in 20 years.
Once the player is waived or retires any potential value he could have brought is over and you have to start a new one. The only way to do this is through your farm.
Most of our expensive free agents or trade acquisitions wind up being waived or retire. Any value going forward is finished. Even when we dump a salary (Matsui, Wagner, Francouer) we wind up waiving whatever “value” was received so that chain is ended.
We forfeit one of our top draft choices every other year while Boston usually has 3-4 in the first couple of rounds. Boston gets 3 or 4 chances every year to start a value chain, we get 2 or 3 every other year.
That’s why we always have so many “holes to fill.”
Another thing about Pagan is that Omar traded him to the Cubs for cash probably because he figured he’d get something for him since he would have absolutely been taken in the rule 5 draft and he wasn’t going to be able to put him on the 40.
At least he got Pagan back when he had the opportunity.
You use the words “just plain old pure unadlutlerated hate” yet go out of your way to slam Alderson, call people that are willing to give the guy a chance every name in the book.
So, you’re defending a guy that just didn’t get it done for this team, mean while KILLING a guy before a pitch has been thrown in his first season.
You are a joke.
Please. I agree the Mets lineup is better than what the median and beat writers like to portray, but let’s not even dare to say it represents a value.
Having Beltran in the lineup is great, but paying $18.5 million dollars is not. Jason Bay at $16 mil is not a value.
I’m talking about value. We have a nice lineup, but we are also overpaying and that’s the point I’m trying to make.
Value doesn’t win World Series. Good baseball does. He may have overpaid a bit for some stars but he’s not the only one. Not justifying overpaying just saying it’s not exclusive to Omar Minaya.
But you already know that. You see? You’re thinking too much about value and not about baseball.
That’s the thinking of the new breed…dark days are ahead.
New breed? Bayonne what is wrong with you? Your making no sense. It stands to reason that of you overpay and get a low return on your investment on a consistent basis you will end up having what the Mets have a string of failed seasons.
That’s not new breed that’s as old as free agency itself.
Value is part of building a good team. Omar overpaid a lot of places and sacrificed the farm to do it.
Ya, lots of teams over pay. the Yankees of the 80s. The Rangers of last decade. Seattle last season. The Mets of…well most of their existence.
Honestly, outside of the 1997 Marlins, I can’t think of any team that won by just piling on the high priced free agents. And we know how that story ended.
Yes, that’s what I’m advocating. Just signing high-priced free agents. Yes I’m glad that’s what you took out of everything i’ve been saying.
To be honest, you don’t say much of anything. you spout irrelevant and disproven cliches and attack a front office that hasn’t even had a season under its belt. You haven’t brought any real insight to any of this.
You claim you “understand real baseball” and that anyone with a different opinion doesn’t respect the game or something.
Did you really want to get into the bidding wars for Lee, Crawford and Worth?
No, I did not say that either.
Sigh. For the 679, 000th time. I had said spend just a little more, not a lot.
Harry is right. Sabermetrics & MB arguments aside, you are an idiot. Can’t you interpret ANYTHING correctly?
DID I EVER SAY ON THIS SITE I WANT TO GET INTO BIDDING WARS WITH LEE, CRAWFORD, & WERTH?
You’re problem is not baseball it’s retention and understanding where people are coming from
And again my point, you don’t say much of anything. Who did you want?
Who would Alderson bring to a press conference and wrap in a Mets jersey to make you say “oh, ya, thats the ticket. We’re going head to head with the Phillies now”?
What do you think Alderson should do different?
I keep asking you direct questions in an honest attempt to see where you are coming from, but all I get is empty cliches and vitriol aimed at a guy who has doen you no harm.
i’m not gonna answer that question for the 57th time. I’ve already laid it out before and u were here, look it up.
No, you haven’t answered that one for me. And the search function doesn’t work on comments.
Just respond to a direct question with a direct answer.
Hey Donal; when you tell us the “real story” of where all these Met kids came from maybe we’ll take you seriously. until then you are a liar. And I’m beimng nice, because if you weren’t lying about Omar then your false criticsims are based on racial hatred and I wouldn’t accuse you of that. Waiting Donal… Where did Davis, Pelfrey, Niese, Gee, Thole etc come from. Tell us where since you claim Omar didn’t bring up any kids. Tell us Donal. Did Sandy sign them all before he was GM. Maybe it was Phillips.. Tell us Donal.
RACIAL HATRED – You are a sick person, why you haven’t been banned for your false accusations is beyond me.
You’re confused Bayonne. The dark days are what we just went through. Alderson was the light at the end of the tunnel we have been hoping for.
Get down on your knees and worship him. (just kidding I added that last part in for effect!)
You? You’re telling me I’m confused? I don’t think so.
How is Alderson the light? What has happened? What has he done? The Mets are now embracing already failed methods.
In pure baseball terms I don’t mind the Young & Paulino signings but he should have and could have done a better job with what was handed to him. He didn’t need a lot of money to do it either
You got a lot to learn kid. We will see down the road.
“could have done a better job with what was handed to him. He didn’t need a lot of money to do it either”
like…?
You are the one confused kid. You embrace a BELIEF. Cult members embrace their leaders no questions asked.
I’m interested in baseball and baseball has one quite well without these beliefs. And if these beliefs proved innovative and successful I’d embrace them too. But they’re not.
then again, if Beltran didn’t get hurt the last 2 seasons and Bay didn’t get hurt your “Value” argument would be less impressive than it is now!
Oh boy…What’s next? A title for the team that gets the most band for it’s buck? You do realize that has nothing to do with winning, do you?
yes, winning is a function of how gritty the players are.
If the Mets got even a decent “bang for their buck” as you like to put it, they’d win 92 games a year minimum. They’re paying $140 million and a .500 record is their ceiling. How you can continually defend that kind of business is absolutely befuddling.
What is befuddling is you forgot one thing. Starting in 2009 these signings, while yes – some overpaid – also got injured.
No major injuries the last 2 years (pitchers’ included). It’s a different story and Omar is probably still here.
SO don’t forget the injuries. they DO matter.
You continue to harp on the what if’s. Well if not for the wild pitch in 86 the Mets may still be seeking to win a world series since 1969.
The fact remains the players got hurt the team didn’t win and Minaya is gone.
To dwell on what if’s as if they were not just going to choke again for a 3rd straight year is a waste of time imo.
Its not just the last 2 years. Look at the whole picture.
Delgado was 36 and had a bad back. Alou always had injury problems. Beltran was 30 with balky knees. Santana was 30 and a power pitcher who already had reports of discomfort in his elbow. Wagner was in the same boat and Putz was injured when the Mets aquired him.
All easily predictable injuries that should have been accounted for. None of it should have a surprise. Yet, none of them were even nominally replaced, with perhaps the exception of Wagner well after he was already done.
Its one thing to come up short because half your team catches the injury bug, its another to collapse because you have no contingencies what so ever.
Oh so none of the injuries were a surprise? Yeah right. What a load of you know what. Too bad any contingencies we had in 09 got injured too.
Wright and Bay were freak accidents. No planning for those, but every team gets them.
Contigencies? Like Tatis? Cora? Rushing prospects too quickly to the majors? Besides, if you don’t load your roster with guys who are injury prone, you don’t have to cycle through too many contingencies.
Isn’t “in theory” thinking wonderful? It looks so easy that anybody can do it?
So i guess now it’s time to sign guys that are already injured huh?
No, see that’s where your selective memory is faulty. The backup for first base never got hurt. The second baseman never got hurt. The backup for shortstop didn’t get hurt till the season was over in August. The third baseman didn’t get hurt till the season was over in August. The backup for CF was only hurt for two weeks during the time Beltran was hurt. The backup for LF I guess was Reed because he played the most games in LF in 2009 and he was never hurt that season (as a matter of fact, he never missed more than three games in a row all year). The backup for RF didn’t get hurt because F-Mart only missed four of the games that Church was out with a concussion (three of which was because he wasn’t even called up yet), and in those four games, Pagan played RF because Beltran was still active.
So quit it with that ridiculous “starters AND BACKUPS were all injured,” because it’s simply not true. The Mets did have to go to option C a lot, that IS true, but not because of injuries. Because Omar couldn’t get even a marginal option B.
Everything being relative – NO TEAM could have survived the injuries the Mets had in 2009. NO TEAM in ANY SPORT. Period.
Just noticed I forgot catcher and pitchers. Well, Santos and Schneider platooned till someone realized both were terrible and called Thole up, so no real injuries there. And as far as pitching goes, I’ll give you the 23 starts from Livan as a legit injury, but Pelfrey started 31 games, Johan still managed to start 25 and OMar went into the year with two options B’s already (Maine and Perez). So it was a bit tough for the pitchers, but the Mets didn’t suffer any debilitating injuries than marginal backups couldn’t have handled. Enough to keep them out of the playoffs, but shouldn’t have been the worst starting nine in the history of baseball, which is sort of what it was.
ummm……Schneider and Santos were not TERRIBLE. Maybe not as good as someone else but not TERRIBLE
Saber goons’ favorites words are ‘terrible’ & ‘simple’
Schneider & Santo were not terrible. I can think of a few catchers that I saw in my life that had terrible seasons though. Those 2 do not fall into that catergory.
OH and the Mets did not have the worst starting 9 in baseball history either.
Actually after everything that happened THE METS LED THE LEAGUE IN HITTING! THEY GOT ON BASE But had no one to drive them in.
You don’t field the worst 9 in baseball history and lead the league in hitting.
Bay had 6 HRs, 47 RBIs, and a .259 BA (and just to piss you off, a .374 OBP) in 95 games PRIOR TO GETTING HURT. So…maybe he would’ve ended up with 8 HR, 51 RBI if not for the concussion?
I love how all of us are “blind followers of Sandy” yet you’re still railing on Omar’s “too many injuries” tagline…
Listen: I admit freely that yes, the Mets had a RIDICULOUS amount of injuries in ’09, and those injuries WERE enough to keep them out of the postseason….
HOWEVER (and I need you to hear me on this), the absolutely putrid team we put on that field, the level of EMBARRASSMENT that watching the Mets came with in ’09, NONE of that would have happened if we had at least decent depth in our organization…depth that comes with finding affordable, VALUABLE players.
Other teams have been beset by huge amounts of injuries, but I’ve NEVER seen a club field a team so utterly pathetic like the one we did once we had to start looking at our Option B’s.
u mean the one that led the league in hitting in 2009? Yeah, the worst ever. All the RBI guys got hurt – the RBI guys are the most important in a lineup.
Now complaining afterward that we should’ve have better subs? That’s not 2nd guessing..that’s 3rd guessing now.
My personal favorite part of the offseason was when Sandy Alderson casually mentioned to Kevin Burkhardt that he “only” had about “$5mm to spend.” Guess what? It was randomly tweeted by someone and there is no other documentation behind it. Yet people stick to that like it was the gospel when in fact, Alderson has spent a LOT more than $5mm this offseason.
I’ve said it before, and Craig you nailed it — spending wildly vs getting value. Except I termed it as “Spending like drunken sailors vs Investing wisely!”
True, you no longer hear ppl complaining about that $5M spending budget do you?
Nobody can deny that Omar had very little to work with when he got here. Seven years of drafts had produced only 3 quality players. One was already here (Wright) one was beset by injury and illness and later traded by Omar to the Cubs (Pagan) The other (Kazmir) had already been traded for an injured starting pitcher before Omar got here.
He knew what kind of shape this organization was in, after all he had worked here not that long before.
All Omar had to work with was the owners check book. Period. Pedro was brought in to entertain with his brilliance and usher in the new era, hopeing that he would be able to start the first post season game of the Minaya era before giving way to the guys Omar brought in. Beltran was an elite, in his prime, low maintenance superstar who played a critical defensive position very well and produced offensively across the board. These guys cost 173 M and a 2nd and 3rd round draft choice.
Delgado cost Gsomes, Jacobs and Petit and 56 M, Once again the Mets take advantage of a Marlin fire sale. Great job. Wagner cost 44 M and a #1 pick. After Sisk, Benitez, Franco and Looper and Taylor for Izzy how can you complain but this was the beginning of seriously diminishing returns that A) didn’t work and B) cost us later.
Omar did fill out the bench very well (Endy and Valentin) and the pen expertly (even with the loss of Duanner- Bradford and Hernandez, got rid of Julio for a starting pitcher, Maine and Perez in the Hernandez Nady deal) Picked up El-Duque and Greene. All of these moves were either good or great and 100% due to Omar’s talent evaluation. Great job so far.
If only Omar had looked at the age. He knew there was nothing in the farm that wasn’t YEARS AWAY. This is when he started veering away gambling on the best case scenario instead of what was most likely and it’s illustrative to look at two deals two of our division rivals participated in and the thought process behind them.
Washington, seeing Minnesota signing Mauer for 10 years realized that their very highly regarded catching prospect Wilson Valdez might be available snagged him for Matt Capps. Now they have a very highly regarded starting catcher for the next 6 years, no long term contract, no big free agent deal, just a smart investment in the future.
Atlanta having re established value in Javier Vazquez was able to trade him to the Yankees extracting Arodys Vizcaino (no the trade target was not Melky although the Braves are not above living with the imperfect one year fit if need be rather than make the crippling 4 year big money error and Yes they did make the playoffs even with Melky, for the 15th time in 20 years)
Vizcaino is a HUGE ceiling future starting pitcher who will pitch in A+ in 2011 and AA in 2012 and if he lives up to 80% of his potential will be a #2 or #3 starter in the Braves rotation for 6 years and either merit an extension or return 2 high draft choices. At the very least Vazquez pitched for Atlanta commesurate with what he was paid and gave them a chance to have an inexpensive future All Star starting pitcher.
Valdez cost Washington a decent relief pitcher and almost certainly will be representing them in the All Star game by 2014 or 2015.
I contend that Omar’s evaluation of talent would have made him singularly able to swing these sorts of forward vision type trades with the best of them and if he had concentrated his efforts on 2-3 years from now instead of just THIS YEAR, every year he would have built us a powerhouse with the most talent, cost and team controlled and still in possession of it’s prime.
Thole has no where near the ceiling of Valdez. Perez had no where near the floor of Vizcaino and Maine had no where near his ceiling.
Ultimately Thole is a good draft pick and one half of a decent catching platoon. Maine and Ollie had their moments but one cannot deny that two of the neediest teams in all of MLB gave up on them both.
Considering that Omar COULD have done the same thing, and done it with even better results without being able to go over slot and starting from scratch with nothing at all in the farm AND without signing SO many free agents for every need makes the whole spending wildly saga that much more disheartning because at the end of the day we failed miserably and now we’re reduced to picking off the scrap heap.
The thought process has to be centered around 2-3 and 3-5 years from now. Do that well and you don’t have to worry about “filling holes every year.”
I just want to say thank you for using paragraphs now. It makes it that much easier on the eyes to follow.
Your welcome MNJ, after all it was your suggestion.
Perhaps some might be interested in your 9/23/10 post over on TRDMB on the ‘Where Did Minaya Go Wrong’ question.
A very detailed layout of Omar’s 6 years here and still a good read.
In a nutshell, (IMO) Omar had a good plan but somehow got off track after the ’07 collapse. Call it panic, pressure, whatever but it looks like that’s where it started going downhill.
http://realdirtymets.com/2010/09/23/where-did-minaya-go-wrong/
I would even venture to say that Omar Minaya panicked after 2006 – 2006, to me, was almost an accident – too much, too soon. They did good, and he couldn’t just sit back and rest while the farm was being built. He knew it was a win-now team, but managed to sacrifice the future for the now, by signing type A FAs and giving up draft picks.
I actually liked the Moises Alou signing, for ONE year. I knew two years would have been too much for him. Then what happened? As you said, after 2007, he panicked and started doing more of those stupid signings that hampered the team with years and money, and no players being able to be traded because of their prohibitive contracts. The rest of them were simply panic moves that prohibited him even more from doing trades or anything to benefit the team midseason. It’s too bad, because I think he was a victim of his own success.
That’s a good way to put it. “A victim of his own success.” I’d have to agree with that.
Mr NJ – I see we were two peas in a pod, writing about almost the same thing after the season was over – here is my take on it (with the same title “Victim of his own success”)
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2010/10/a-victim-of-his-own-success.html
Someone else said that he may have believed his own hype about catching lightning in a bottle. That is SPOT ON.
Graet post Coop. This line brought it all together for me.
“Omar Minaya did not do enough to support his “vision” of growing the Mets into a viable contender.”
That is it in a nutshell. Well said.
Lately, I’ve been of that same mindset. My opinion of Omar has softened somewhat.
After 2006, anything less than a World Series would be considered a failure. The Phillies becoming the dominant force in the NL probably didn’t help. How much would it suck to sit through another division rival going on a decade spanning run of success?
I think Omar had a lot of the same problems JPR had in Toronto. Came in with lot of hype,
didn’t have a lot to start with but found some success early,
meddling ownership,
an organization with no clear direction,
and really, hadn’t developed the tools to be a successful GM by that point.
Neither of them seemed to really know how to handle the media or the finer points of wheeling and dealing with other teams.
Omar is obviously a fine talent evaluator and maybe this experience will make him a better big league GM.
Well said Mr. Lerner. Should any of this off season’s signings not work out they don’t represent a road block to any future signings. $1.5 million players on 1 year contracts can be cut much more easily than $36 million players on 3 year contracts should they not pan out.
Whatever amount of money is spent on each individual player the ultimate point is to increase the probability that the team will receive value from the player during the contract. This season and coming seasons will reveal to us whether Alderson can do this successfully for the New York Mets. All I feel confident in asserting so far is that he has done nothing to hamstring the process going forward. The rest we’ll all just have to wait and see.
Well said
True that, even if Alderson’s plan is a bust, at least it won’t load the next guy with immoveable contracts and a depleted farm system.
Well thought out post, Craig.
Bottom line: Omar was here for 6 years and the Mets won nothing. More than enough time to evaluate if the organization was in good shape even with the ‘bad luck’ as some are using for the reason they won nothing in those 6 years.
My opinion? It wasn’t just ‘bad luck’ with injuries etc. that was Omar’s downfall. The organization from top to bottom wasn’t in all that great a shape considering the highest payroll every, the minor system being rated on the low end of low, and how many prospects on the top 100 list?
It was more than time for a change. I’m happy the Wilpons saw fit to spend money on the FO. It’s Alderson’s gig now. I’m more than willing to give him a chance to see how his philosophies shake out. And by chance, I mean much longer than the first 2 months of this season.
LOL I have to agree 2 months seems kind of short.
In the end anyone that has this misguided opinion that the Mets will no longer use scouting and instead use sabermetrics. Don’t worry nothing can be further from the truth.
It will a combination of both not 1 at the expense of the other.
Hopefully in a few years we will look back upon this as the start of a winning run that has never been seen by the Mets. If not it will be back to who will the next GM be?
if anything, a number of the players brought in this off season make more sense from a scouting, rather than saber, perspective.
and as others notied, the best part of his moves were that they included very little commitment beyond 2011 (dickey and carrasco, and carrasco is barely making more than minimum wage).
that, combined with hanging onto all of the farm prospects (I assume so they can see them in action, in light of the new systematic approach), plus all their draft picks AND a bonus one courtesy of Pedro F.
so for about the 2nd time in the last 7 years, they will actually have a few picks in the top of the draft. Not like the Rays, but it should get some needed life into the system.
They will also have a pretty experienced MiL group, with quite a few that should be knocing on the majors (if they are ever going to), and a good cahnce to develop some of the A ball guys with lots of upside.
Given the very limited money to spend, a certainly justifiable, logical off season approach. And IMO it is going to look a lot different next year (many more trades, and more expensive FAs in play).
Don’t get suckered in to thinking that this off season is indicative of who the FO plans to approach future years.
“Don’t get suckered in to thinking that this off season is indicative of who the FO plans to approach future years.”
Exactly!
I disagree with Patrick Flood in that none of Sandy and his staff’s moves this offseason had anything to do with sabermetrics. All of Sandy’s moves this offseason had to do with needing trying to fill numerous spots on the Mets roster credibly for as little guaranteed money as possible in the the FA market, the angle of so many mos. after surgery for a P, speaking to medical professionals and even considering both Chris’s workout routine in the winter. For app. 13 MM (not 5MM) to spend on new players this offseason Sandy and his staff had to come up with 2 new SP,rebuild the pen behind K-Rod and Parnell, rebuild the bench, bring in a RH back-up C and a RH bat challenger to Murph at 2B.I think Sandy and his staff did a solid job this offseason. For those that complain, exactly how would have you filled so many holes on the Mets for such little money?
They couldn’t Sach. There playing fantasy baseball GM. It doesn’t translate. They would have given Takahashi and Feliciano 8 of the 13 and then gone after a couple of the guys we did and then they would have been stuck. Run out of money like their Swami did. Start begging for “just a little bit more money”, Then they would blame sabermetrics, David Wright and call it a day.
There are a few moves I really like and no moves that I don’t. The one regret I have is that we don’t have any club options on any of these guys for next year. It’s pretty much one and done. Almost everyone Alderson has signed has had success in the Majors before and I would have loved to be able to hold onto the guys who did well for 2012 but I guess that would have raised the cost.
I’m really glad we signed Dickey for 2 years and an option. Perfect move. Some guaranteed money for RA, reasonable price considering the results of last year vs career to date but with a very high probability of success with that wacky knuckleball. Looking next for Reyes 4 years and Pagan 2 + option.
Why is it Frank Cashen took 4 years to make this team respectable, and Sandy Alderson is being killed before a pitch is even thrown?
I am NOT saying the guy is a genius, but can we give the guy a year or two before we claim to be experts?
Do you know what the Mets were like in 77,78, & 79? That’s what Cashen took over. Alderson inherited a lineup that is good enough for the Wild Card now. And the Mets of 08, 09, & 10 are better than the 77, 78, & 79 Mets.
All Alderson had to do was spend just a little more, not a lot. I don’t mind the Young & Paulino moves but I don’t think he spent smart and did a good job at all outside of that.
To answer Sach above he could have spent just a little more or a little wiser to pair Young with either Penny, Harang, maybe Webb? That’s the short answer.
He’s also made NO TRADES!!!!!
If anyone here was told that the Mets would have made NO TRADES by the time ST came along nobody here would have believed it. Another GM may have valued different players and made a trade for pitching by now.
But you don’t know if him not spending a lil more or making a trade for someone that frankly you dont even know who it would take to make let alone who would you get will turn out to be a bad move.
They have yet 2 play 1 game. “One game”.
How about just waiting for the season to pan out before you say what he did was a bad move.?
How do you know he didn’t discuss trades that he wasn’t able to get what he felt was the right return on? Maybe he feels the best return on a trade would be AFTER players have re established themselves. Many GM’s feel the best return is at midseason when time becomes the enemy of teams both in the hunt and in need. Mid season is also when he’ll have a better gauge of what he’s got here and how it fits together.
Not every newly appointed GM makes a trade or many trades very early in their tenure. Some like Omar do but Omar was a GM in the same division as the Mets for 3 years before coming back.
Even Steve Phillips, who was already here didn’t make any trades until after he had been on the job for 5 months and he already knew all the players on the team.
I’m not surprised one way or the other by Alderson’s lack of trading activity. I am positive that if he had been offered Bumgarner for Perez we might have had a trade already.
Just like the idea isn’t just to spend money as opposed to spending it wisely the same so is true about making trades. You don’t make trades when the return is less than you feel is in your teams best interest.
We have heard reports that he was talking extensively with both Boston and SF. If those talks didn’t lead to a trade I feel that it was probably not in our best interest to not make one.
I’m NOT asking to give him 6 years to get a WS title, 4 years to be relavant – but for the love of God you’re killing the guy from day one because he didn’t hire the Manager with NO MLB experience that you wanted.
Who is he going to TRADE? We have no one worth trading right now that would give a worthwhile return.
It’s easy for you to sit here and say “another GM……” It’s also easy to sit behind a keyboard and say trade this for that…….YOU ARE NOT A GM, no matter how much you say you know the game.
We’re not comparing them to the 1980 Mets. We have to compare them to the Phillies and Braves of 2011.
Harang is getting over $4 million from the Padres this year. Do you think he is worth that?
Webb, who hasn’t pitched in 2 years, is getting $3 million from Texas. I admit, he does intrigue me, but I really don’t see this as a very big upgrade from Capuano’s deal.
And Penny, who hasn’t been good since 2007, is making $3 million from the Dodgers.
Basically, just more expensive versions of what we already have.
You’d think that would be reasonable.
Change was needed, but there’s no way I’m going to concede that Alderson is smarter than myself or Minaya. He’s just another man in the industry. I’m glad he’s well respected. I’m somewhat pleased with the some of the pickups he’s made. I’m even willing to cut him slack since to me its clear the owner tightened the checkbook. But I don’t appreciate the statements he’s made since he’s been fired. Demeaning stolen bases and as such Reyes, and continually parroting a line about “patience and flexibility” when in reality the Mets were simply hamstrung by a fiasco that went above baseball.
Just like Minaya or anyone else, he’s going to have earned my respect and trust. I know that the success of his Oakland teams is marred by steroid use so in my mind he doesn’t have a huge track record. Minaya got results early, then floundered and was fired. This is New York, the biggest market in the sport. I have little patience for losing in a sport with no salary cap, a team with a new city financed stadium and some of the highest prices around. I know I honestly wouldn’t be sad if a new owner solves the Madoff mess and simply brings in his own GM which I can envision in 2 years. If the Mets surprise this year, then I’ll give Alderson some time but in my eyes he left some moves unmade and has already wrong footed the team and the fans with some comments. What I do know is men “smarter” than him have failed miserably.