Project Prospect released their Top 100 Prospects list for the 2011 season today and surprisingly it features six Mets, including Reese Havens (42), Matt Harvey (48), Fernando Martinez (53), Jenrry Mejia (83), Brad Emaus (94) and Wilmer Flores (100).
These prospect ranking may seem very odd compared to other recent lists like those from John Sickels of Minor League Ball and Baseball America.
The reason for that is because the guys at Project Prospect not only consider a player’s ceiling but also his floor.
In other words, yes Wilmer Flores may have a high ceiling. but he also is at great risk of being a very poor player or below average. Reese Havens on the other hand is expected to have great upside, but even if he doesn’t meet that expectation he will still be a very solid MLB player.
A good recent example of this would be in the case of Ike Davis who did not appear on any top prospects lists last season, except for Project Prospect.
Nobody expected Ike Davis to be a cant-miss phenom with a high ceiling and so you saw that in how everyone else snubbed him as a top prospect. However, PP ranked Ike Davis at #57, because they felt he had a higher floor which meant he would be at minimum a solid major leaguer. They also ranked Jon Niese #48 and he came up and proved he belonged in the majors.
It’s actually very encouraging to see six Mets on this list for 2011.