18
2011
From Left Field: The Power Of “If”
An article by 
If – A noun or conjunction: an uncertain possibility, a supposition, in case that, granting or supposing that.
The word “if” will hold much significance for the 2011 New York Mets.
Let’s start with the positives.
If Chris Young returns to his mid-2000s form and if R.A. Dickey pitches similarly to last year, the Mets will not be severely affected by the loss of Johan Santana.
If Jason Bay remembers how to hit, the Mets will have a consistent run producer in the middle of the order.
If Jose Reyes remains focused on baseball, the Mets will have the most dynamic leadoff hitter in the game setting the table.
If Carlos Beltran stays healthy and plays to his potential, David Wright will receive plenty of protection in the batting order.
If K-Rod puts his demons behind him, the Mets will have a shut-down closer available in tight games.
If the Mets rid themselves of Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, two younger players with more upside will be able to contribute to the roster.
If the second base situation is figured out early in spring training, that player can gain the confidence and experience needed to produce every day.
If Ike Davis and Josh Thole continue to develop, the Mets will have a strong batting order throughout.
If the Mets can get off to a hot start, the Madoff scandal may be moved to the back burner slightly.
If Terry Collins establishes himself as a leader, the Mets will respond with good hustle and plenty of heart on the field.
The problem with the word “if” is that there could be a negative side to plausible outcomes. Here’s what could happen if the above statements turn bad.
If Chris Young struggles coming off his injury and if R.A. Dickey proves last year was an anomaly, the Mets will have plenty of holes in their starting staff, especially without Johan Santana.
If Jason Bay continues his lack of production, the Mets will once again lack a consistent middle of the order threat.
If Jose Reyes loses focus, his abilities would be wasted.
If Carlos Beltran struggles offensively, David Wright would not see as many pitches to hit.
If K-Rod lets his demons haunt him, the ninth inning will be a wild adventure.
If the Mets decide to stick with Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo, they would be wasting roster spots on guys who have lost their ability to produce.
If the Mets drag out the second base competition, the winner won’t be able to settle into the role and just go out there and play.
If Ike Davis and Josh Thole regress, the Mets will have a weak bottom half of the order and rely too much on the top for runs.
If the Mets get off to a poor start, all we will hear about is the Madoff scandal and how it has affected the Mets.
If Terry Collins does not establish himself as the new order in Mets baseball, he will lose control of the team just like Jerry Manuel did.
So there you have it.
If things go right, the Mets may be the surprise team in the NL. However, if things go poorly, the Mets may find themselves in the cellar of the NL East.
I know it may sound basic, but it pretty much is. The team has some pieces that can make them a competitive team, but the success of the team will hinge upon if everything clicks at the same time.
Here’s to wishful thinking on the positive side of “if.”
Follow me on Twitter @JMMancari.
About the Author: Jim Mancari
Jim Mancari hails from Massapequa, N.Y. He recently earned a Master's degree in Journalism at Hofstra University. He is a devout Mets fan and takes pride in his team, despite their lack of success over the last few years. Like all Mets fans, Jim has plenty of hope. He also writes as the sports reporter for the Brooklyn Tablet newspaper and the senior editor of metroBASEBALL Magazine. Click my name to view my personal website.
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For those detractors of Daniel Murphy that he was a poor fielder, how about this stat. In 2009 Baseball Info Solutions ranked Murphy the 2nd best 1st Baseman in savings runs. So his fielding wasnt that bad. 2ND BEST
Is this a baseball comedy book? Fangraphs, Info Solutions…they all have some really reliable info – NOT
So Murphy was 2nd best? Considering all the players on MLB teams who actually have made a career out of 1B, out of all the players who make playing 1B an actual living – who was the only one to beat out Murphy. According to your allegedly reliable source.
Go to SNY Bayonne and read report there and then go over to there are only two who made the transition to 1st base. You will find that comment there, I did not make it up.This was for the 2009 year only.
I don’t have to read any reports, I’ve been around baseball long enough to know Murphy is not a starting 2B and was not good at 1B. He was just OKAY there. He was good enough at 1B to help increase his value as a utility player, utility players just fill in at spots…he’s not a starting 1B either.
With all due respect to what you “know” about baseball.
The fact remains that people way more knowledgeable than yourself have decided Murphy will get a chance to audition for the starting 2b job. If he is or isn’t the starting 2b is moot.
What is important is whomever wins it that they can contribute and in whatever capacity that Murphy makes the team that he contributes as well.
Don’t try logic with a closed mind. It hasn’t worked to date.
You do read reports and you do use statistics, so lets dispense with that nonsense, shall we? You just prefer some stats and reports to others.
It does not matter if you watch every play of every inning of every game. Human memory is faulty. We romanticize things. We ignore things that don’t fit our preconceived notions. We emphasize things that support them.
Thats why we use cold, objective, unbiased numbers when attmepting honest evaluations.
Yes, Donal certainly does not use his own judgement. Whatever Sandy says Donal regurgitates………. that is what he thinks is cold objective blah blah blah. Have you ever had your own thought on anything Donal? Try it once…. It might not kill ya.
Harry C. — sometimes I think you’re a genius. But of course I wake up then. LOL.
And how does playing a good 1B mean you will be good at 2nd? Those are two different postions.
Should we try Ike Davis at 2nd too?
If you want a disaster . . .
By the way Bayonne if Murphy makes 2nd base he will be in the company of Jackie Robinson who made the transition.
someone pointed out earlier I think it was A.N.Y. and I would have to agree that Murphy was never really a 1b to begin with. He was put there in the middle of the season to see if he could play the position to begin with.
and the list of guys who moved from 3rd to 2nd is a bit longer. At least for the mets, alfonso did it, and chase utley. Both seemed to do OK.
Pete rose played both, but I don’t know what order. and 1B too, but I believe that came later?
Patrick Flood: Coming to Daniel Murphy’s Defense (at 1B after the 2009 season)
“He (Murphy) didn’t look smooth playing first base, but he was surprisingly good. UZR ranked Daniel Murphy as the 4th best defensive first baseman in the majors last year (2009). Plus/minus ranked him as tied for first with Albert Pujols and Kevin Youkilis. Fan Scouting Reports ranks Murphy as a better defensive player than either Carlos Delgado or Fernando Tatis. He was not only solid defensively, but in fact he appears to be one of the best.“
“He played a grand total of 13 minor league games at first before 2009.“
“On the other hand, it would make sense for Murphy to be an above average first basemen. He was a +2 infielder in 213 minor league games (196 at third), though that is by iffy minor league Total Zone. He spent most of his time at third base, which is traditionally thought to be a more difficult defensive position to play – so first should be an easier job for him, once he figures out how to actually play it.”
“Turning double plays. Not something traditionally associated with first basemen, but it can make a small difference. This seems to be another strength of Murphy’s. He initiated 9 ground ball double plays in 2009, fourth in the league among first basemen – and he only played two-thirds of a season at first. Murphy also finished fourth in assists to second base with 19. He turned more 3-6-3 double plays than anyone not named “Albert Pujols” – though it should be noted that he probably had more opportunities to turn double plays than other first baseman because of the Mets staff’s unfortunate aversion to pitching within the strike zone, thus putting more runners at first with less than two outs. All this shows that Murphy plays an first base with a third baseman’s mentality – he loves to go after the lead runner. “
“Daniel Murphy, in his 707 major league plate appearances as a 23 and 24 year old, has a wOBA of .330, which is exactly average, and an OPS+ of 103 – so his OPS is 3% better than the rest of the league during his major league stint. He’s young, he’s still improving, he only played one game at the AAA level before being called up to the majors. Despite all that, he’s been a league-average hitter, he’s projected to be a league-average hitter this year as well. “
http://www.patrickfloodblog.com/2010/02/coming-to-daniel-murphys-defense.html
I am not sure why everyone keeps harping on K-Rod. Last year he was pitching better than his first year with the Mets, until he got hurt and was put on DL.
Hopefully his finger problem is healed and he does not change his pitching mechanics. I think mentally he should be fine.
He definitely was pitching great last year before the incident. He has to have learned his lesson and should be a huge part of the bullpen. He might not be as big an “if” as some of the other “ifs.”
I don’t see K rod being an issue due to his mental state. he is a nut job anyway. as long as he doesn’t punch anyone out and get suspended, he should be fine.
the thumb is the real issue, but he did come back and pitch in winter ball. Only a couple innings I think, but enough to make sure he could do it (I assume that was the reason).
Nice post Jim.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Yes good one. Did not mean you specifically on K-Rod. Just fans in general seem to think he had a bad year.
of your items, the one that I worry about the most is Young holding together. But, I have more confidence in capuano.
2nd wuold be beltran being clean up level productive. I expect he will be healthy enough to play, at least for a while!
most of the rest are reasonable to expect. not guaranteed, but not wild, pie in the sky prayers.