Forget Beltran, It’s Bay That Worries Me The Most

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• MetsMan86 February 6, 2011 at 12:20 pm

  Adjusting to the pressure of NY is BS. I can’t imagine the pressure between Boston and NY is that vastly different where a player would completely take a dump in the batters box
  • Metsie February 7, 2011 at 10:11 am

    It’s not the pressure it is the stadium. He went from a big green wall to the grand canyon!

    A right handed pull hitter will always do better in Boston than he will in Citi Field.
    • METS62FAN February 8, 2011 at 11:03 am

      Metsie, stop drinking the “easy excuse” koolaide. It’s convenient to try judstifying the production decrease by citing the Fenway-Citi discrepancy; but ONLY 23% of his career ABs were with Boston. the others, prior to NYM were with primarily “THE PIRATES” who play in nearly as spacious PNC.
      Truly, after Wright’s falloff it was a quick/dirty & easy excuse; but a deadwrong one. most likely it’s the most common excuse of ALL first-year,big-contract-itis.
      It’s funny as they say great minds think alike, just this morning I rendered my opinion on what we need from from Bay in ’11 for success. I’d love to share those thoughts ratrher than recreate them here. please exccuse the extensive CAPSLOCK I prefer for my personnel correspondence:
      …WHILE MUCH IS BEING MADE OUT OF SANTANA’S LATE SEASON START, MUCH MORE RELIES UPON BELTRAN’S HEALTH & BAY’S REJUVINATION(BOUNCE-BACK). JASON BAY CAN VERY EASILY BE TO THE METS WHAT JASON WERTH SUPPLIED THE PHILLIES ALL THOSE TORMENTING YEARS. NOT A STAR. NOT A STRAW FOR A DRINK(USED FOR STIRRING OR SUCKING); BUT AS A DEADLY JANITOR CLEANING UP THE REFUSE LEFT BY THE CLEANUP HITTER IN A DANGEROUS METHOD OF TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A PITCHER’S NATURAL EXHALE SHOULD THEY ESCAPE 1-4 (REYES TO BELTRAN) AS WERTH EXCELLED AT IN VICTIMIZING THOSE EXHALING PITCHERS AFTER SUCCESSFULLY GETTING ROLLINS THROUGH HOWARD. A SHORT GLIMPSE AT THEIR RESPECTIVE CAREER STATS BAY/WERTH
      WERTH, http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=150029

      BAY, http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?roster_year=2010&player_id=424726&c_id=nym

      GIVES BAY THE EDGE “ON PAPER; BUT WERTH SEEMS TO HAVE DISPLAYED A TREMENDOUS SITUATIONAL ABILITY TO BE HIGHLY OPPORTUNISTIC WHEN NEEDED, IF NOT OVERALL; ANYONE, WHO HAS WATCHED AS MANY PHILLY GAMES AS MOST OPPOSITIONAL FANS PROBABLY ARE MORE SUPRISED AT HIS OVERALL NUMBERS BEING LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THEIR PERCEPTION. BASED UPON LAST YEAR’S ABERATION, BAY WAS JUST THE DIRECT OPPOSITE THE SHOCK BEING HOW IMPRESSIVE HIS OVERALL CAREER NUMBERS HAVE BEEN AS OPPOSED TO WHAT THEY’VE SEEN.

      Futhermore, these Mets in this Park will need to live & die on their RBI totals not HRs. A key facilitator or baraometer will be the placement of Reyes & Psgan on the RS leadership column. I contend that while it’s SOP to have a low K high contact hitter @ #2. the XBH% of the Mets’ #2 will be a key factor since Reyes will score on nearly every one he’s on base for.these XBH% will be key as they’ll account most often for 2R, Reyes & the #2(Pagan) by Wright,Beltran,Bay. Consider how thesethese most frequrnt #2′s performed in % of XBH
      LoDUCA approx 24%
      MATSUI approx 27%
      Castillo approx 14%
      Pasgan approx 31%
      • t agee February 8, 2011 at 11:53 am

        Hitting in a line up with Pedroia, Ortiz, Martinez, Drew and Youk and no weak spots is a lot different than hitting in a line up with Francouer, Tejada/Castillo/Cora/Arias, Blanco/Thole/Barajas, and the pitcher.

        That’s 4 spots out of 9 that combined with Wright and Davis’ platoon splits really make it 5/9 in terms of working through the line up. (on the surface Davis has an equal platoon split but 9 of his hits vs. LHP were of the infield variety which as a non-speedster doesn’t prove to me he’s handling LHP and without those 9 hits his BA would have been .221) and Pagan has a huge platoon split too.

        In a line up who’s hitters have such a low OB%, low SLG% and such huge platoon differences Bay’s just not going to get a steady diet of pitches to hit. Perhaps if guys start getting on in front of him the pitchers will be forced to come in more often and he will see more stuff he can do something with.

        Comparing his 2009 with 2010 is unfair due to the comfort factor, the different type of off season he had, switching back to the NL and trying to live up to, instead of obtaining, the big contract.

        Jason Bay can be at least an average LFer but not in as disjointed a line up as he was last year.
• Chris February 6, 2011 at 12:59 pm

  It could very well be he just had a bad season. You have no idea that he wonr come back and give us a rebound season with 35 homers and 125 RBI. Pressure is very real and the player DO let it effect their at-bats. He is going to be fine and by the way, he dont have to show up early. He is a veteran with nothing to prove and is not battling for an everyday job.
• Pete February 6, 2011 at 1:01 pm

  FYI: 2005, Beltran’s first year with his NY Mets Megadeal, in 582 AB’s, he hit .266, slugged .414, with 16 HR’s and 78 RBI.
  • Squidoo February 6, 2011 at 1:07 pm

    He was injured and nearly was lost for the season after a collision with Mike Cameron in 2005. No tellig what he could have done had he been healthy. Now they want Beltran to do the same thing and play RF with a CF mentality. Recipe for disaster.
    • LGNYM February 6, 2011 at 1:27 pm

      That collision happened in mid-August, even later in the year than Bay’s injury occurred. There was plenty of baseball already played at that point and he had a lousy line of “.267/.325/.434/.759″ prior to the injury.

      If you want to dismiss Beltran’s lousy 2005 as being b/c of the collision and say we don’t know what would have happened the rest of the year if he didn’t get hurt, than the same should apply to Bay, and then we can use the injury as a reason to ignore his 2010 and say he got hurt in July and we don’t know how he would have done the rest of the yr if he didn’t get hurt.
• Squidoo February 6, 2011 at 1:10 pm

  I dint like the Bay signing from day one. The Red Sox pulled their two year offer off the table because they were afraid of a big decline. The Mets bid against themselves and dont forget that 2014 $17 million option. All he has to do is have 500 PA in 12 1nd 13. Terrible contract!
• LGNYM February 6, 2011 at 1:13 pm

  I’m not worried about Bay. He handled Boston just fine on a team in the pennant race so its not like he can’t handle any pressure. Of course there is always some concern whenever a guy has an off year, but I am not pushing the panic button on Bay yet. And remember Beltran in 2005? He was god awful…sometimes guys just have bad years.

  And its not like Bay was the one making excuses. Nor have a I really seen many people making “excuses” for him..just more speculating what could have caused his off year. I think more excuses were made of other guys…like you are making for Reyes. I fully expect Jose to bounce back as well, and I do think he deserved some leeway after missing ST and whatnot, but injuries weren’t the reason he forgot how to walk and posted a lousy OBP…thats an “Excuse”.

  And I also don’t see why Bay in particular needs to arrive at ST super early. Sure its nice to hear guys like Murphy and Wright are already there, but its not something guys need to do and overall probably doesn’t have much of any impact on the season. And just about everyone on the team could certainly stand to improve upon what they did last season, so if we are going to criticize Bay for not being in St. Lucie now, the same criticisms should be made about a dozen or so of the other guys.
• Charles February 6, 2011 at 1:36 pm

  This is just a decline and what the Mets get for signing a player on the wrong side of 30 that had injury concerns that kept the Red Sox from retaining him.
  • LGNYM February 6, 2011 at 2:09 pm

    If that was truly their reasoning it didn’t make any sense for them to go out and sign Lackey. Who is over 30, a pitcher (which is even more risky), and a guy with much more significant injury concerns.
• Harry C February 6, 2011 at 2:07 pm

  Its pretty obvious why Jason Bay is getting a free ride but not Carlos Beltran nor Jose Reyes. Its the same reason Sandy Alderson is getting a free ride while Omar Minaya did not. You just don’t want to say it or admit it publicly.
  • LGNYM February 6, 2011 at 2:17 pm

    People play up the whole racism thing way too much. Certainly there are people out there who stupidly have something against the Latin players, but thats not the case with the majority. And I’ve seen a lot of criticism for the white players over the years…Bay, Wright, Pelfrey, etc.

    And Omar got a pass for years. He only started getting questioned after the team completely tanked with one of the highest payrolls in the game. And even then, people tended to blame the managers or the coaches instead of Omar.

    Sandy’s been the GM for what..all of about 4 months or so? It’s a little bit early to jump on him, especially given the circumstances with ownership. But I’ve already seen people ripping on him anyway…probably moreso than I saw of Omar during his first 3-4 YEARS here.
    • Pete February 6, 2011 at 3:46 pm

      About the only thing that isn’t lying under the surface of the Mets, is any kind of racism. Mets fans base their allegiance on the laundry, let’s try and be real, ummm….Harry. When a player performs for the Mets, whether it was, Donn Clendenen or Rusty Staub, Masato Yoshii or Endy Chavez, R.A. Dickey or Art Shamsky, the fans loved these players for what they did on the field. As far as Omar goes, he got way way more rope than he really required, to hang himself.
      • LGNYM February 6, 2011 at 7:26 pm

        Well I do think there are a segment of people out there who are racist. There were some who complained about the Mets being “too Latin” in years past. So there are those people out there.

        But overall, I don’t see that as a big issue in this instance. I don’t think the “white guys” have been spared the criticism at all. And if anything I think Bay and Wright have received more criticism for their “bad years” than some of the others have for theirs. Certainly there are people out there who are critical of players for the wrong reasons, but I don’t think all those who are concerned about Reyes’ and Beltran (particularly Carlos since his injury isn’t one thats going to completely go away) ability to stay healthy are jerks who’s feelings are motivated by racism.
  • JerryG15 February 6, 2011 at 4:15 pm

    Since when is Bay getting a free ride? You have selective hearing. Don’t talk around it – say exactly what you are saying, WHY is he getting a free ride, which he’s not.

    Alderson DOES get a free ride when he’s been appointed and NOT ONE PITCH HAS BEEN THROWN YET.

    WHat fan base is dumb enough to give up on a GM before a season even starts.
  • Marla Hooch February 10, 2011 at 7:48 am

    Funny – tough guy makes very strong accusations then runs and hides like a child.
  • Metsie February 10, 2011 at 9:49 am

    AH HA! The piece of the puzzle that explains all your vitriol over the last few months!

    We always suspected that you were in love with Omar’s way of doing things but until today I didn’t realize your allegiance to the mets was an Ethnic thing.

    It really does explain every disjointed and unrelated thing you said now that we understand where the hatred is coming from!

    The wilpons are evil because of a Latin thing that the rest of us wouldn’t understand!

    I get you now!
• martin February 6, 2011 at 2:38 pm

  yoy say you couldnt care less about his walks and OBP, he was supposed to protect wright. walks are OBP are protecting wright. stop being wrong about everything. offense is offense. walks are terrific and a player with a good obp and lots of walks is helping everyone in the lineup.
• martin February 6, 2011 at 2:40 pm

  also we should stop caring about how people perform relative to their contracts. their contracts are not relevant. all players want as much as possible regardless of how they perform. it has nothing to do with the game. you shouldnt expect more from a player because of his contract.
  • Da Madd Genius February 6, 2011 at 4:18 pm

    I understand that sentiment, but have to disagree. When I hear that my team can’t improve in the present because of contracts given out in the past, it means that I must hold the players already on the team accountable to the size of the contract that is currently restricting me.

    That being said, I just think Bay had a tough time going from an extreme hitter’s park to an extreme pitchers park.
    • martin February 6, 2011 at 4:24 pm

      what does that mean held accountable? the players should not be expecteed relative to their contracts. they should simply be expected to perform. rookies, big free agents, all the same. play well or go down the minors. contract not relevant.
      • Des February 7, 2011 at 10:36 am

        Martin, you need to understand the mentality of any front office. Players with large contracts are often given more leeway so that the front office’s prior decisions can be justified what they hope is turnaround play. It has a lot to do with ego. This is a simplification but accounts for some otherwise mysterious behavior. (Contracts often exclude a player being sent down without their permission. Think: OLLIE.)
        • martin February 7, 2011 at 11:54 am

          you can care about that, but i care about baseball.
• Mark V February 6, 2011 at 3:43 pm

  One question to the writer of this article. When David Wright had such a Difficult 1st yr. in Citi did you say the same about him? He like Bay has had many yrs. of consistant good ball play. He learned to adjust and I believe so will Bay. Think about it, before you start shooting your mouth off. Town Crying is easy to do. Good analizing and reporting is a little harder.
  • Marla Hooch February 8, 2011 at 7:50 am

    While we talk about DW’s difficult first year at Citifield, which indeed include only 10 hrs, and an alarming amount of K’s.

    Keep in mind, he also hit. .307 with a .390 OBP and .447 Slg. , had 164 hits, with 39 doubles and 27 SBs.

    So I don’t think you can even put Bay’s bad year in the same breath as Wrights first year adjustment to Citifield.
  • Metsie February 8, 2011 at 10:26 am

    David Wright has been the most consistent player on the Roster!
    Yes he had a bad year in 2009 and he slumped badly early in the year and then again in July after the All Star break. But much of that had to do with who was batting around him. No protection means you don’t get pitches to hit and lets face facts here we were fighting for contention at that time and with no one else hitting David got over aggressive trying to spark and lead the team. It didn’t work.

    Now when I said before that david has to hit for reyes to stay that was not an indictment of David but a statement of the reality Sandy is facing this year.

    If we are not competing before the trade deadline then Sandy is going to think REBUILD and if thats the case even David Wright could be sold off for prospects.

    I don’t want to see him or reyes go but the truth is I can’t blame Sandy for not wanting to carry two big salaries when the rest of the team is going to look like they should be wearing Buffalo Unis!
• tlagee February 6, 2011 at 6:12 pm

  Hey Joe – Happy Super Sunday…

  I think the flaw in your argument – saying that you’re more concerned with Bay then Reyes and Beltran – is this line:

  “And in their last full seasons in 2008…”

  In Beltran and Reyes last full season IN 2008…

  Bay put up pretty significant numbers in 2009.

  Let’s say that there is a concern with all three of them and hope for the best.
  • any February 6, 2011 at 7:43 pm

    I think the key difference is that Bay was healthy but just looked old and suckadelic. Reyes and Beltran were slowed by injuries, but did have good performance last year for periods.

    at least I think that was the distinction.
• Metsie February 7, 2011 at 10:05 am

  Joe is correct that Bay isn’t getting a lot of talk (I seem to mention him more than others) but there is a good reason for that.

  Bay right now probably is the least tradeable of the players we have.
  So no matter what he does this year he is likely going to remain a Met.

  His performance will have an influence only in respect to the trade status of others and even then only a minor contributor to that status.

  If he has a poor year then he will make the trading of Reyes and Beltran more likely. Not on it’s own mind you it will require Wright and Davis to have poor years to ENSURE they are traded.

  If he has a good year then the chances we will retain Reyes increase a bit as Sandy might determine a blowing up of the roster is not needed. Beltran is likely gone before the deadline, Reyes is the only one of the pair that will be considered for an extention.

  And while Bay’s performance will have some sway in those decisions the sway it hold will pale in comparison to the sway the performance of guys like Wright Pagan, Davis and Reyes will have on those moves.

  If Reyes has a crappy year we may not get anyone to trade for him. Same for Beltran. If Wright and Davis do not hit (lets say Bay does) it still will lead Sandy to think let me get what I can for Reyes and Beltran and if nothing gets done he will let them walk and hope to get the picks for them if there are any.

  If Reyes and Beltran have a great year then the performance of Bay, Wright and Davis become more important. If those three have good years then we will likely be competing for the division title and that might put some pause in Sandy to consider keeping one or both to not upset the apple cart and hope to get that quick Playoff appearance.

  So your correct, what Bay does this year will have an impact. But it is much more important for Reyes and Beltran to have good years because if they do then we can actually get something for them if Bay, Wright and Davis don’t hit.

  Once the fate and future of Reyes and Beltran are settled then what to do with Bay and Wright will be front and center.

  So it may seem like he is getting a free pass but really he is just not the first guys in the line to deal with.
• sarge February 8, 2011 at 1:11 am

  David his 1st year adjusting = Jason his 1st year in NY as a 32 YEAR OLD proven vet is not the same thing. One is a rookie and the other an established star, no comparision please.

  Great to see you back posting your insights JoeD, hoping your health is better cause this coming season will try even the most healthy fan.

  I see where Bay is not mentioned but the fact that he is staying and Jose and Carlos might be traded gives them more possibilities for rumors, etc by fans and especially the anti NY Met press.\

  He, Bay, needs to step up and be the protection that even a on his way down Delgado provided for David, maybe that might help David stop trying to hit the ball out all the time and just hit gap to gap and the HR’s will come.
• t agee February 8, 2011 at 6:39 am

  The first year of a free agent is oftentimes not as good as his previous season because he hasn’t had the offseason to use to prepare as well as the previous off season. Too much business, uncertainty, looking for housing, schools all at the last minute usually in January when he’s got 6 weeks at the most till ST. Add in media requests, business “opportunities” and all sorts of other off field distractions and then changing leagues too? Forget about it. Some teams do a much better job of preparing the newly acquired free agent for his first year, we don’t. We expect him to play well while carrying the dead ass carcasses of all the failed dinosaurs that came before him now that he has started his decline as well.
  • Metsie February 8, 2011 at 10:30 am

    Don’t forget that he had just spent time in the American leagues and that also is an adjustment you need to get over as well. but the truth is if he had not got hurt halfway through the season his slump probably wouldn’t have been an issue right now.

    he started very slow, (so did Wright) and then got hurt before he could even it out to come to average.

    This year he either picks up his game or he could be traded justr as much as Reyes or Wright would be if they agree to pay some cash!