4
2011
Did Alderson Take A Swipe At Jose Reyes?
An article by 
I wrote this original post on Reyes a few days ago, but recently Jose has been in the news again due to some comments GM Sandy Alderson made at a Cancer Awareness event in NYC. Newsday’s David Lennon, who was in attendance, tweeted:
Alderson said “stolen bases are a footnote” when it comes to winning games. Looks like he’s already cutting Reyes from 2012 payroll.
It is discouraging that Alderson would undercut the one true value that Jose Reyes brings to the table; his speed.
Yes, you could say he has other merits for example you could argue that Reyes is very solid defensively, but wouldn’t his speed be a contributing factor there as well?
I wonder if his ability to steal 40-50 bases a season is being unfairly glossed over by Sandy Alderson?
I also wonder if they are failing to see how valuable those stolen bases are and if they are grossly underestimating them?
We’re not talking about someone who haphazardly runs amok on the basepaths here, Jose Reyes has a career 80% stolen base percentage.
In his last full season in 2008, Reyes stole 56 bases. He also hit 37 doubles and a league leading 19 triples. Factor in all of those 56 stolen bases that turned singles into doubles, and doubles into triples, and you are talking about some huge production that came as a result of his blazing speed.
I took a quick look at his profile on ESPN.com and found that Reyes produced a .475 slugging percentage in ’08, a pretty remarkable mark for a leadoff hitter and most likely the reason why Jerry Manuel wanted to bat him third in the order.
What is far more remarkable is that his slugging percentage doesn’t include the additional total bases he produced with his stolen bases.
When you add those 56 stolen bases in, it gives him an incredible 383 total bases which translates into a .557 slugging percentage. Mind boggling, to say the least. (BTW, did I unknowingly just invent a new stat?)
That would have ranked him 5th in the National League that season behind sluggers like Albert Pujols, Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman.
One more very important thing to note is this… His 42 swipes of second base put himself into scoring position without costing the Mets an additional out. That’s huge in my estimation.
For years we as Mets fans, have always said “As Reyes goes, so go the Mets”…
Now, his biggest attribute and value to the team, is being labeled as a “footnote” when it comes to wins.
This is certainly a head-scratcher…
Sorry Mr. Alderson, but with all due respect, Jose Reyes’ stolen bases were more than just a footnote for many of the team’s wins during his career as a Met.
Your remark seems more like an attempt to steal his thunder and gain a public perception advantage should you decide to let him walk at the end of the season.
Original Post 2/2 6:20 PM
With the news that the Wilpon family is now in search of a buyer to form a strategic partnership, there’s so much speculation running rampant on the web.
One of the things I now wonder about with this team is the financial uncertainty. Will this uncertainty affect or change how the Mets will operate when it come to making financial decisions regarding keeping players or going after higher priced players in a trade or free agency for the rest of this season and beyond?
My biggest concern right now is the status of shortstop Jose Reyes. Buster Olney of ESPN, speculates that the current Mets situation will make it difficult to retain Jose Reyes and force the Mets to move him to another team before the trade deadline.
“Some rival executives are convinced that the Mets’ financial situation all but ensure that Jose Reyes – who stands to be in the running for a nine-figure contract as a free agent next fall if he stays healthy and has a good year – will be traded before the July 31 deadline. That’s all speculation at this point.”
This season is going to be a huge one for Reyes and he knows it.
Nobody understands better than him that if he can put up the kind of numbers he did in 2006 and 2007, he can command a contract similar to what Carl Crawford got from the Boston Red Sox this offseason.
If the Mets are still in the hunt for the NL East division come July 31st, would the Mets dare to trade Jose Reyes for a few prospects just to get some salary relief and undermine their chances to compete for the rest of the year?
I sure hope not…
I don’t think there’s any chance of that happening, but maybe I’m being to unwilling to see the reality of this current financial quagmire and the impact it will have on all decisions going forward.
At a potential cost in excess of $100 million dollars, is there any chance, no matter how slight, that the Mets could still keep Jose Reyes beyond the 2011 season, or am I just chasing butterflies?
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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I guess it’s just too early to tell Joe. Here is what Rubin wrote today regarding the same topic.
“Even if the Madoff matter never existed, perhaps Sandy Alderson would conclude it’s wise to part with Reyes at the trading deadline if the Mets are out of the race and if it seems likely Reyes can get a $100 million-plus contract elsewhere as a free agent. After all, given Alderson’s beliefs, it’s possible the GM would conclude that’s not a worthwhile investment at that cost. ”
proxy.espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/13768/true-sense-at-deadline-during-10-11-offseason
well, at this point, people are going to decide on their own what the reason was for any move. And in this case, it will be that they are broke, the team is going under, etc. if he leaves. Next to no one will beleive it was for sound BB reasons, or was a legitimate financial (value) decision.
The ownership’s financial status, and Reyes’ success or failure this season, are not the only factors in his future with the club. Ruben Tejada’s performance as the everyday SS at AAA will have an impact in the process too and should be monitored by Reyes watchers just as closely as Reyes and the Wilpon finances.
Some guys are convinced body always equals body b. Guess what Jay…it don’t work that way.
I’d be happy to debate what it is you’re talking about but I’m afraid I have no idea what point you’re trying to make here Harry C. “Body always equals body b?” What?
Honestly, Jay, not worth your time to argue with him. It doesn’t really go “up” from here…
Good points by always and Jay. Alderson is looking at Reyes as a leadoff hitter. Despite the SB’s he really is not a leadoff hitter. He’s a good defensive SS who can hit. That alone merits him a big contract since there are so few SS’s that can do both as well as Reyes can.
Alderson is not a big believer in the running game but he will have to become one unless he chooses to bring in the fences. That being said your SB guys should be hitting in front of your singles hitters where the SB helps you the most, not in front of your HR hitters where it helps you the least.
I also believe that sabermetricians undervalue the SB because there is no way to value residual effects of the threat of the SB.
Also Joe D. Good job with the “new stat” I would recommend subtracting out 3X the number of CS’s from the stolen base totals before adding that to slugging since a CS is 3 times more costly than 1 SB.
My biggest worry with Alderson is that he has been out of the game so long (when did he leave oakland about 10-12 years ago?) that he is picking up with a theory that might have worked then but doesn’t really work now. Mostly because the rest of the league has caught up to the OBP part of his plan by now. It is no longer the undervalued metric it used to be.
Not liking SBs is a central tenet in Bill James’ theories where the out is the great evil. He believes all outs are equal and you should do nothing that could cause an out such as sacrifice or steal a base, which is where I have issues with the theory and disagree. As you said TAG, That works if your the 89 Athletics and have a team full of doped up HR hitters but it will not work in a cavernous stadium where the HRs are few and far between. You can’t sit back and wait for the big hit because it only goes to the warning track in Citi Field.
There are many kinds of outs and some are much better than others. Some do positive things while being recorded (Sac Fly) and others are worse (Hit into a DP)
So lets make a scale:
0 = K or plain out. Only the batter himself is recorded as an out I would say CS is neutral.
+1= any out that moves a runner over or scores a run
-1= any out that causes another out in addition to the out the batter made.
JoeD is correct in that things like SB, and advancing a runner should be reflected in a stat similar to SLG (prob not SLG itself) since those actions do increase the team total bases.
If a batter makes an out but a runner gets an extra base closer then the batter should get some credit for it. While he himself did not GET a base he did cause someone else to get one. This is an aspect of the game that is largely ignored by the newer metrics since the newer metrics take all the nuances of TEAM out of the numbers.
and as Joe suggested. If a batter gets on with a single but then steals second should he not have that extra base reflected in his SLG or something similar? He did get two bases on a single at bat despite the fact the original hit only counted as a single. Maybe a new metric called Base Potential where all recorded bases (Move runner over, Stolen Base, taking first on a K) are accounted for.
I think that is my major issue with the OBP SLG sabermetric theories. It is so focused on OUTS and treats all outs as the same evil when the focus should be how productive your outs are. Every team gets three outs per inning, But only 1 of those outs is a fatal nail in the inning coffin. What you do with the other two outs is almost as important as what you do with the hits.
If an inning consisted of three walks and three outs it is what happened in the first two outs that will determine if one of those three score or not. If say there are two sac fly’s can you really say they are as bad of an out as a strikeout or a DP that erases a runner? I certainly think not.
By the same token a “productive out” differential might be a useful stat as well.
Take all the outs a player has and factor in a plus or minus to see how many or what percentage of his outs actually produce a good result. Combined with OBP you might see that a player with a lesser OBP actually does some good stuff when he is not getting on base. This would be very useful when looking for a guy at the back end of the order who maybe isn’t a great OB guy but does manage to plate a few of the stragglers LOB after the heart of the order has done it’s work.
And while I am worried that Sandy might be coming in with a bit of an outdated theory, that doesn’t mean I am too worried about him because he has shown the ability to adapt to situations quickly and I do believe he is smart enough to make the adjustment and come up with a new more up to date theory.
interesting post. reminding why I love baseball. i’d like to see a metric like this develop
IT’s not like this productive outs jazz hasn’t been studied. They help, but not that much. There is a very strong correlation between teams with high OBP and teams with high runs scored. Not so with “productive outs.”
That said, I believe Bill James admitted that he was too negative on the Stolen base early on (80s) because he wasn’t thinking situationally enough. Stealing with an 0-2 count and 2 outs in front of Alex Cora is a different type of risk than stealing with no outs and Barry Bonds behind you.
If Jose Reyes is going to have a .330 OBP, then he is going to have to move down in the lineup even if he is wearing skates.
Joe, an additional consideration MUST be who’s doing the strealing Reyes stealing a vbase has to be considered MUCH more valuable than say, Ike Davis, for no other reason as potential % of success just as OBP is relative to batting success very low CS% with very low SB accunmulations is ,to me, a situational negative conversly low CS% combined wigh HIGH SB accumulations is a TRUE WMD(Weapon of Mass Distraction) failure to use efectively will lead to an accumulation of Ls.
Joe since this is the first time I have discussed this with you and you may not be privy to previous conversations on this subject I will tell you that it is quite clear that the people who Looked at the Productive out and also stated that there is a high correlation to OBP and RS did their research with a distinct BIAS towards OBP and did not do a proper analysis.
As for the correlation to OBP and RS well I will repost for you what I have posted in the past regarding the correlation and importance of OBP…
You will see that there are OTHER stats that correlate much better than OBP does.
2010 team RS/RBI/OBP
Yankees 1/1/1 (Both sides correlate)
Boston 2/2/4 (I win one)
Tampa 3/3/10 (thats two!)
Cincy 4/4/6 (Thats Three!)
Texas 5/7/5 (you win one)
Minny 6/5/2 (My correlation is closer to actual than yours! thats four!)
Philly 7/8/13 ( Again my ranking is closest to correlation thats five for me one for you!)
Rockies 8/6/7 (I’m gonna give you this one! I still lead 5-2!)
Blue jays 9/9/26 (OHHH that had to hurt! I lead 6-2! but EPIC fail for OBP!)
White Sox 10/12/11 (I’m generous today I’ll give you a match! 6-3!
2009 Same stuff!
Yanks 1/1/1 Same as this year! another push!
Angels 2/2/3 (score now 7-3)
red Sox 3/3/2 (Another one for me! 8-3!)
Phillies 4/4/14 (Ohhh abother Blue jays incident! 9-3 my favor!)
Twins 5/5/5 (hey another push!)
Rockies 6/8/7 ( 9-4 oh I feel the heat now!!!)
Tampa 7/7/6 (Sorry charlie 10-4)
Blue Jays (oh no!) 8/6/15 (You hate them don’t you? 11-4)
Brewers 9/9/8 ( Sorry close but I was closer 12-4)
Rangers 10/10/24 (OUCH! bet you wish they were more like the blue jays! 13-4!
2008 lets try it one more time maybe third time is the charm for OBP.
Texas 1/1/3 (All Mine! I lead 14-4)
Cubs 2/2/2 Hey a push!
Red Sox 3/3/1 ( 15-4 my favor)
Twins 4/4/9 (16-4 Oh the agony!)
Tigers 5/6/7 (whose your daddy? RBI! 17-4 now!)
White Sox 6/5/2 (Oh well 18-4 in RBI correlating better than OBP!)
Indians 7/7/11 (19-4 and only 3 more teams to go in 2008!)
Phillies 8/8/15 (20-4 and you must feel pretty foolish by now!)
Mets (hey!) 9/10/8 (I feel bad so will give you this one despite both being equally off by one 20-5)
Yankees 10/9/6 (21-5)
So RBI spanks OBP in RS correlation 21 times to 5
of those 21 I correlated EXACTLY with RS 15 times!
Of your 5 you correlated EXACTLY with RS ONCE!
If OBP correlated to RS then the Blue jays would be no where near the top 10 of RS two years running!
The causality is key. it is not the ON BASE that causes the run to score it is the Hit or what happens in the PA that directly correlates to RS.
A guy on second can not force or cause a batter to do something that would score him. Once he is on base he is not an operator any longer. the Batter is!
Since a batter can produce a run without getting on base before he does it or without anyone on base at all, the batter not the runner is the cause. And since a batter can make a Sac Fly that ALLOWS a runner to score again the PRODUCTIVE OUT is the reason for the RS with only marginal help from the runner. yes the runner contributed running to the RS but without the batter hitting the Sac Fly the runner could not advance without some help from the defense via error or fielders choice! No matter what happens in a game a runner can not CAUSE a run to score without some HELP be it offensive via the batter or defensive via the other team.
I know many read these Saber books and take what is in it as gospel but you have to understand the scientific approach that is required for statistical analysis and identify that the bias of the analyst can skew the truth and numbers to favor any statement they wish to make. Most of the sabers are derived to make OBP the most important stat. But it is not a CAUSE just a CONSEQUENCE of other GOOD THINGS (Mostly good PA or ABs)
OBP correlates because hitting and walking BOTH cause a guy to get on base. Good teams hit good and as a result walk more because pitchers pitch around them!
You can compile a team of high OBP players but without the BA being good they will not continue to be high OBP players and they will not score a lot of runs either! High OBP team with bad RBI will strand most of their runners! And Pitchers will make them swing instead of walk which negates their ability to get OB!
Someone needs to drive in those runs! Someone needs to HIT! If you can’t hit then they will not walk you they will pitch to you and get you out! So a high OBP player with no BA will no longer be a high OBP player and therefore will not score all those extra runs!
OBP is a product of GOOD HITTING! Sure you increase it with a walk but the ability to walk is proportional to your ability to hit. Hit well you walk a lot, hit badly and no walks for you!
The Yankees lead the league in OBP because they hit for average and hit for power and when a pitcher faces them he does not throw strikes but tries to pitch around him.
Sure you can pick a number you like and find some way to say it is a CAUSE of something else. But unless you look at it from an impartial view with no prejudice you will ultimatly come up with the answer you want not the right answer!
It is the BA that drive the OBP, not the other way around!
And a productive out that scores a run is WAY more of a contribution than just getting on base and waiting for someone else to contribute!
Cause one actually changed the scoreboard. The other helped but did not FORCE or CAUSE the run to score.
I’m sorry, did you just attempt to prove something by correlating RBI to runs? Why not just correlate runs to runs? Of course RBI will more closely correlate to runs than OBP or almost anything else. What a waste of words.
OF course you could have a team that gets on base at .400, slug at .300, and be below average in runs while leading in OBP. My quibble is with the alleged value of “productive outs.” I like players and teams who get on base rather than make outs (even productive ones). Doesn’t everybody?
you have to watch the games not just the stats.
in 1986…wally backman’s BEST year was when he ONLY had 36 BB…27 RBI…18 2B…67 Runs…a .385 SLG %
but he also had a .320 batting average which led to a .376 OBP…almost ALL of that was attributed to BASE HITS, not walks
not to mention the things that dont show up in stats, ( breaking up DP’s, running over infielders and catchers, getting in your SP’s face when he is losing his control..communicating with ur rookie 1B when a right handed hitter who loves to go the other way is up at the plate and ur pitcher is going for the outside corner…u see the sign because ur at 2B, and u relay it over to ur 1B )
communication and preparedness is a HUGE part of playing a game.
none of that shows up in a stat. Cal Ripken Jr for example was big for his position..often CALLED the game from SS so he of course knew where to position himself, which increased his total chances…
this is why u have to WATCH the games….if that wasnt necessary, there would be no need for scouts
an RBI is not an RS! Unless it is a HR. There is a difference!
Of course RBI is related and therefore CO related!
Thats the point of a CORRELATION!
An RBI will ALWAYS result in an RS!
Will an OB always relate to an RS? NO!
Well if it can’t PRODUCE as RS all by itself then it is not the CAUSE of the RS and by fact NOT CORRELATED to RS in anyway shape or form!
It doesn’t correlate BETTER than any other stat! It does not CREATE or DRIVE the other stats! It is an accumulation that is COINCIDENTALLY ADDED in the proccess of doing the things that really and truly CAUSE the run to score!
Stepping into the batters box is JUST AS IMPORTANT as OBP is to RS! You can’t do one without the other!
You can’t score a run without also increasing OBP.
Just as you can’t walk 10 miles (RS) without walking 5 first!(OB)
Walking 10 miles FORCED you to walk 5 miles Twice!
But the fact you walked 5 miles did not DRIVE, CAUSE, or FORCE you to walk 10!
OBP is nothing more than a BY PRODUCT of good hitting.
In your view marriage would be the leading CAUSE of divorce cause you can’t get dicorced without first getting married!
So is marriage the cause in that scenario too?
I think you need to watch the games a bit more and just look at how much WASTED OB doesn’t score!
10 Hits in a game and only 3 runs scored. if your looking for production you really need to look at a stat that is more consistent at indicating the RS your likely to get. Such as RBI!
remember RBI get credited to the hitter not the runner as RS does.
The runner didn’t CAUSE the batter to get that RBI. And without it the runner would be stranded!
CAUSALITY is what statistical analysis is all about!
Finding the action and contributions that helps you score runs and win games! Quantifying it and trying to get more of that trait on your team!
And in the end you know what you find out?
the STATS mean squat! It is the makeup and mental toughness of the player that drives the numbers, not the other way around!!
EXACTLY !!!!!!!!
The Mets trading Reyes is the equivalent to trading Seaver. I don’t see how the Wilpons’ looking for another partner would mean trading Reyes. With all the salary coming off at the end of the year, the Mets could extend Reyes at Crawford money and still save $11M. Who do they have to replace him? Tejada can field, but can’t hit to save his life. Flores is still too young, and he is far too slow to play shortstop. Valdespin is years away also. Jose Reyes is the longest tenured and most talented Met. Citi Field was built for his talents. Large gaps for triples, the overhang in RF for Reyes’ high flying homers from the left side. Trading Jose Reyes would destroy this franchise for years to come. Mark my words. He will win MVP this year. How can we not resign an MVP?
I AGREE
I don’t remember the Seaver trade but I always though Seaver held a much more higher status amongst mets, Mets fans, and Mets history than Reyes ever has. So it surprises me to read you say “The Mets trading Reyes is the equivalent to trading Seaver.”
I do remember the Seaver trade and I can’t remember one single Met fan that was in favor of that. When you read today what many of our reactions were back then, you can believe it. Everything they said about M. Donald Grant is true. Cheap SOB…..lol.
It seems to be divided on Reyes, although from reading around I think the majority would like to resign him.
You didn’t see the divided comments because there weren’t places for fans to write endlessly about this or any other subject. All you had was your friends and the one sports talk station WNBC, unless it had changed its name to WFAN by then.
it would not be the same magnitude, but in many ways, it would send the same message. So from that standpoint, it would be like the 2nd coming of that deal.
I do. We recieved nothing that would compare to his talent. Dan norman was suppossed to be the top prospect and did nothing. Flynn was a good glove, could not hit. S. Henderson was a ordinary to less than ordinary talent and P. Zachery was a 4th in rotation. We should have gotten one of their starting players like Dan Dreissen or Geronimo.
North, as someone who lists “THE FRANCHISE” as his ALl time favorite Met & who purchased a Wright T-shirt long before a Reyes. I must concur with “the ADVOCATE inasmuch as replacability.Eventually one might concede that Gooden ostensibly had talents to replace Seaver; however in ALL of baseball’s grand history exactly how many truly electrifying, “yet to enter his prime” players have been considered peers to Jose’s delivered package? Reyes’ image has suffereed from today’s media who never honestly considered his “FACTS” ie AGE, MiLB training period(fasttracked), surrounding players, hitting posituion. They demanded Jeter like leadership, never accounting for the liklihood of a teenaged (19) player only English fluent <2 yrs of commanding center stage in NYC. as such, he had no where to go but down in their expectations. despite his being a 'fixture' in Flushing longer thasn any other on this team; no one ever decreases their expectations based upon his yet to enter PRIME productivity years(28-32) as a perfect example, recently on SNY's Daily News Live show, the topic of Reyes' continued longevity in Flushing was brioached, one of those 'beaters' favoring his Met demise did so with this explanation,"it's not like he's ever led them to a Championship. It ewas all I could do to not get apoplectic at the screen, screaming" who was the last leadoff hitter to drag their disappointingly productive team into the playoffs, let alone a Championship? They would much rather tear down this energetic dynamo player than rally behind him with logical thought. Occasionally not busting to 1B, though an aberration is met with disclaimers calling him a dog, yet not one of them ever recanted when just days later, Reyes is sidelined with mysterios leg issues upon deplaning in SF? This same stupid negativity stays alive, even on this knowledgabe board even after ALL the facts have occurred. Why? & from the same lemings that will excuse Santana's being eaten alive by PHL or NYY for various reasons never including spitting the bit. Reyes electrifies the team & fans with celebratory handshakes that get him pilloried in the Press that once proclaimed Rex Ryan all time seer despite Jose's production "on the field" & not in interviews, he electrifies, he cellebrates his teammates, he accomodates every stupid frontoffice/mngr request with a smile(moves to 2B,alters his run style,surrenders, his leadoff spot.) I'm sorry; but when was the last time Ramirez or Rollins were that team accomodating?
ALL in all North, Reyes on the field is LARGER THAN LIFE; off he's Clark Kent, mild bespeckled reporter.
Seaver, the greatest Met ever was wearing his cape 24/7.
Agreed. Not that he will win the MVP, but that not re-signing him would leave the Mets without a game-changing dynamic that could take a decade to replace.
I was around when Seaver was traded and losing Reyes will be equal to that horrible night. M. Donald Grant (I feel dirty just typing that name) did not believe in free agency, and paired up with Dick young of the Daily News to assissninate Seaver’s charater. By the way…..Young’s first name speaks for itself…because he was one. Needless to say….the Mets sucked for many years thanks to Grant refusing to sign free agents.
I’ve been a Wilpon supporter only because they were getting hatted on by dam near everyone. Now with this financial dealings….I’m hoping that they sell the team to the guy who bleeds Blue and orange…
The wilpons have been stubborn and loyal to near-do-wells in their front office beginning with that kat who replaced Frank Cashen, through the sex maniac Steve Phillips and their “pet” Omar Miniya They have been known to let the inmates run the ship..such as john Franco, Al Leiter and the brown nosing Tony Bernazard….
If they cannot give Reyes what he will earn…a $100 million dollar contract….they should sell before next years free agent season begins.
And if they let Reyes walk…and sign Wright long term…they will come off as racists. losing reyes is a no win situation. Reyes has been nothing less than loyal to this team. He has not bitch and moan about being switched to 2nd base for a lesser talent, nor has he bitched and moaned about the way his hamstring injury was handled….to being mis-handled by Willie and Jerry.
Awesome post. Forogt bout the Kaz BS whe
If they sign Wright but let Reyes walk that may be portrayed as racism by some but I think it will be based on the fact that Wright has missed only a total of 37 games in his 6 full seasons with the team due to injury or manager’s decision while Reyes has missed a total of 179 games in his 7 full seasons with the team and that has nothing to do with what color either player is or where either was born.
But Reyes is a much better player.
Who cares about race ?
He is more talented YES, better player, not necessarily.
defensively, reyes plays a more defensively premium position, has more range, an equal glove and a MUCH more accurate and stronger arm than David. His range ALLOWS David to play closer to the line. David knows a slower shortstop means playing closer to the hole, which means less chances as more balls down the line get by him.
Offensively, they play different roles and I see them as equals in what they do.
Wright is an AWESOME 3/5 hitter…has power, speed..his faults are he K’s too much…and has had a tendency to disappear in clutch situations after the 6th inning. bases loaded, 2 outs, down by 1, DW up…im not confident anymore…its like the same feeling u got when tatis was up with a runner on 1st..u KNEW he was hitting into a DP
Reyes is a premier leadoff hitter…he is a top 3 basestealer…can get 15 triples/35 doubles in his sleep…has added bunt singles to his repoitore.
his faults are he tends to loft the ball in the air too much…doesnt make enough contact…doesnt work the count enough..needs to develop a lil more patience…funny enough, if he hits like Scrappy Castillo…he probably hits .310-.320…
old Scrappy was patient…could drop a bunt single with the best of them…had a good OBP…
if reyes focused on getting on base more than hitting doubles/tripes. he could cause so much more damage..
either way, i give the edge to reyes but slightly…
and yes…if they extend wright ( who they have shoved down our throats since 2005 ) and not even make a competitive offer to reyes, then yeah…this will reek of advertising > production
i dont think the wilpons are racist as much as they have traditionally catered to the crowd they feel will spend money on them. Omar came in and said, why dont u also include the latin population in that marketing campaign. the same country club mentality that pervades the media went ape-sh*t and then u have stories, articles, and BOOKS of Omar building a latin dynasty after he signs TWO latino players…lmao…
ADAM RUBIN actually WROTE A BOOK on Omar “latinizing” the mets…
the entire BOOK was about Omar courting Pedro, Beltran, and Delgado…
next thing u know, the mets have hispanic heritage night…merengue night…salsa night…have los mets jerseys…Professor Reyes having fun teaching folks how to speak spanish…all this was GREAT for bringing in a crowd that lives within walking distance to Shea…but served to alienate some white fans ( particular the suburban ones who never lived around hispanic folks )..if u notice, 99.9% of the folks who cover the mets are white….and suburban…and related to what the newly alienated crowd felt…and their articles reflected that…
what they dont realize…is that the culture at shea stadium was lilly white for YEARS…with no one complaining about it…in 1994 u didnt hear naughty by nature on the loudspeaker…u heard the Beach Boys…
the mets have always catered to the 50 year old white dad of 3 taking his wife and kids to the game…which is why they had no problem signing Bobby Bo and his million dollar smile but not Barry Bonds and his controversial mouth ( 1993 )
also why they shipped out Kent…and Cone…and Lenny…
to say its all about race is stupid…to say race has NOTHING to do with it is naive..
Sorry but trading Reyes is NOT the same as the Seaver trade – not even in the same universe.
I also think this is another Lets Hit the Panic Button for no reason at this point.
I agree.
Trading Reyes will be much worse.
You really have no idea what you are talking about, seriously.
More simply put..NO REYES = LOWER INVESTMENT VALUATION as the ‘Advocate” implies the 2010 payroll allocation is:
REYES(SS) – 11,000,000
BELTRAN(CF) – 18,500,000
PAGAN(LF) – 3,500,000
TOTAL 3 POS 33,000,000
POTENTIAL FOR 2011
REYES(SS) – 17,000,000
PAGAN(CF) – TBD MOST LIKELY <5,000,000
TBD(LF) – 750,000
TOTAL 3 POS 22,750,000
As the in house SS candidates at best would be TEJADA,HU,HAVENS,FLORES
and the diminished winning potential should a combo of BLUE CHIPPERS be acquired even the best pitching requires RS sans Reyes RS would be the biggest issue to replace & it's unlikely any pkg received would resiolve that humongous elephant dominating the room. it would remain highly unlikely that a team in a downward winning/attendance sprial having traded it's most key ingrediant for winning is hoping to command a substantial investment in lieu of the overall investment climate likely to exist for a number of years. While I can make an easy arguement for easily replacing any other member of the roster with similar talents in existance, it certainly would present a substantially more difficult asignment to replace Jose & all he means to the Metfans outside the negative Nellie metro area. Wright by Zimmerman, Beltran by Hunter, Santana by Lee,Sabathia,Haladay, Johnson,etc,etc & so forth. As an electrifying leadoff presence who plays an impressive defense, Reyes at present has NO equal in MLB today or in the forseeable future! Like him or not Jose Reyes is a unique entity that will only improve substantially over the next 4 yrs(his 38-32) prime/peak performance years!
While the naysayers detract from him over nitpickery, like not running full tilt while nursing a bothersome hammy. few ever credit him with his walking the walk of a team oriented player as he attempted to overhaul his running style for the team, relinquished his SS position to a far lesser player for the team, surrendered his beloved leadoff slot for the team; but somehow some old geezer in the Bronx is refusing to even discuss a SS position change for a younger rangier model is their epitome of A TEAM PLAYER! WAke up Met fans, THE PRESS DELIBERATELY POINTS TO YTOUR SHORTCOMINGS TO SELL CAGE LINERS!
+10
+11 METFAN
Great to see you back and adding your perspective.
Reyes is important to team plus having Tejada means what?
You can’t replace a leadoff hitter like Reyes easily and if they do, I hope they don’t, it will be reflected in the lack of manufactured runs on team plus having to play long ball in a pitcher’s park.
Wow, this post is definitely in my top 3 posts, i’ve ever read on the internet.
If the Wilpons sell the majority of the team, then the chances of retaining Reyes are higher. If they sell 75% of the team, they would get around $700 million and they would still earn revenue without having to be the decision makers.
MARK CUBAN!
That would be the best thing to ever happen to the Mets!
Mark Cuban would make this team a winner, no doubt!! You know he will spend whatever it takes to win a WS.
this is silly. cuban didn’t even spend whatever it took to buy the last 2 teams he tried to buy.
If Reyes is traded, it means Mets are rebuilding.
Seaver was great but he was a pitcher; a great short stop who can field , hit and run is very difficult to replace.
And his smile!!!!!!
Without Reyes, the Mets will be hollow.I don’t know I will be able to endure it.
probably they will be, unless they turn around and sign another established star with the money. Prince Fielder? If Pujols extends, who else will be on the FA market to get big money besides reyes and prince?
although it seems like a 28 YO reyes is a guy you rebuild around. So if they trade him, Bay better be out the door right behind him. Pagan too, being 31 in 2012. Beltran is going anyway.
Don’t know if you are old enough to have been around for the Seaver era.
If Seaver and Reyes were hitting the FA market at the same time today, Seaver would be worth more. He was just that good.
Absolutely – Reyes and Seaver do not belong in the same sentence.
Sorry I love Reyes too, but……….not even close. HOF Seaver, WS ring, CY Young.
Reyes…..nadda GREAT POTENTIAL but……………
“nadda GREAT POTENTIAL but……………”
Immature?
Why don’t you fill up the sentence for me?
Why don’t you make assumptions.
I love Reyes – one of my favorites, but what has he won? Seaver is in the HOF, 300+ winner, Cy Yount winner, WS winner.
Reyes has not met his potential yet, due to injuries, and frankly trying to swipe too many bases early in the season, makes him toast late in the season. It takes a toll and when we needed him most, he wasn’t there.
Jerry, Thank you,Thank you,Thank you
for uillustrating whast’s wrong with the Reyes perception in NY. Not living up to his potential yet? held asgainst him? Can u please explain in what Universe, players are supposed to reach their potential BEFORE entering their PRIME produvtivity years?
Clearly it is relatively evident thet players like the annointed Seaver & the ultimately disappointing Gooden peaked early Seaver @ age 25, Gooden age 21;
However, for this example as history proves Seaver’s best year(’69) was behind him when dealt & considering a player’s prime productivity years are between age 27-32, contemplating dealing Reyes in his 28th year(2011) would be more foolhardy as, in his case, it’s obvious the BEST is YET TO COME! Dealing potentially the 3 best years of a significant player’s career away is decidedly more destructive than dealing him after(see Nolan Ryan) his best has been produced
I am old enough.
Still Reyes worth much more in my opinion.
I’m not old enough. Can I ask you then based on what Seaver did in his 1st six years of MLB why is it that you think Reyes would have been worth more?
Seaver’s 1st 6 years were simply awesome. Seaver would have been heading into free agency at the age of 27 just like Reyes and when looking at what he did in his 1st 6 years i just am trying to understand how you see Reyes worth more?
Tom Seaver
baseball-reference.com/players/s/seaveto01.shtml#1967-1972-sum:pitching_simple
Jose Reyes
baseball-reference.com/players/r/reyesjo01.shtml#2003-2010-sum:batting_standard
Difference between an everyday player and a pitcher.
Especially short stop which is the most important position along with catcher and centerfield.
How about Jeter and Clemens?
Thanks for replying. I was hoping you would specifically explain how Reyes has more value than Seaver and I guess your saying it’s because Reyes is an everyday player and Seaver was not.
I’ll just have to disagree in that to me if I have a team that has Jose Reyes and say Roy Halladay on it. Both in their prime headed into free agency In my opinion Halladay would be worth more.
Now an everyday player like a Pujols as opposed to a Reyes is a different thing in my opinion in that Pujols can carry a team and Reyes can not in my opinion which is why I find it hard to think Reyes has more worth to a team than a Seaver in his prime did.
Again I do appreciate and Thank you for at least explaining why you feel the way you do.
MNJ,
Plus I like Reyes a lot.
Jeter and Holiday?
I watched Seaver on TV, but started to go Shea in the mid 80s. Nosebleed seats.
I just never seen a player who electrified the whole stadium like Reyes.
It is not just fans. Our players and visiting players , too.
I mean he is everything and more. And he is a leader by just playing.
Whenever People talk about immaturity about Reyes, I sense a racial bias.
He just loves playing BB and unbelievably great at it.
This is just my feeling.
Understood
You never saw a player electrify a stadium like Reyes ? I guess you werent a Met fan in 1984. No one electrified a stadium like Dwight Gooden
With Seaver, it wasn’t just the fact that they traded him. It was more about the GARBAGE that they got for him. Hopefully, if the Mets do trade Reyes (which I hope they dont), they will get some decent players in return.
How many times has Alderson said that this team needs to be built centered around speed and defense? Ten times? Twenty times? What makes you think anyone else will be playing shortstop other than Jose Reyes who fits perfectly into Alderson’s master plan to win a World Series? Jose Reyes will be a Met probably for his entire career just like Wright.
I really hope all these people who keep claiming Alderson is trying to turn the Mets into a small market team and wants to trade Reyes first chance he gets will publically apologize for this crap.
you don’t spend much time on the internet, do you?
j/k there.
Oh, I know better. But, the thing is, people put too much faith in anonimity of the internet. Some people see a thing where they can say whatever they want and remain safe from people knowing who they are.
I know the truth, however. I know that whatever you say is forever kept in cyberspace. And that all it takes is pateince to find out what someone said and throw it right back at them.
Not that I’m the kind of guy to do that. I’m just sayin’.
Steve, both those guys have ingratiated themselves with most Mets fans. Wright and Reyes have faults, but which pair of players don’t? I’d like to see both around for another half dozen years.
The Jose situation is not the only one coming up cause David’s contract is up after 2012 and then we have the same situation as with Jose.
The only difference is that other than the concussion David has remained healthy but he doesn’t depend on legs like Jose does.
I think that with all players healthy this season and Jose performing as Jose does that Mets will compete for wild card, especially if we get a Johan that come out pitching like he can.
I remember when Jose came up and that HR he hit in Oakland and I saw a special player. Along with David Mets need to keep them both, of course Jose has to stay healthy, and have them both finish their career as Mets.
When was the last time we could say we had a Gwynn type player retire with his original team, and he never won a WS.
The fact that Madoff took all those people for their money is sad but lets look at some of those, not all, who saw a tremendous return on their money and instead of questioning the “investment” just went along with what others were saying. Sometimes if something is too good to be true then it is.
I have many problems with the Wilpons and their mgmt of team but the vitriol that is being thrown at them by the press, with the Daily News leading the way, is just uncalled for cause Madoff was a friend and now this “friend” has ruined what future the Wilpons had planned and probably the team.
Hey what is wrong with Mets having multiple owners? Yanks have had the same thing and they still run the team but you also have other voices in the room making sure you are putting a good product out there and not just wanting to fill seats as Wilpons have done? Just a thought.
Anyway I say keeping Jose along with David, adding in Ike, Pelf, Niese, Parnell Mets have a good nucleus going forward. I don’t want the tream blown up.
actually the Mets have a team option for Wright for 2013, so he is locked up for 3 more years. No real reason for mets to worry about him until next off season at the earliest.
It took the Mets 7 years to come close to replacing Seaver’s talent. That was Dwight Gooden.
It will take at least 10 years to replace Reyes.
Ruben Tejada?!?! GTFOH…he can’t even fill Doug Flynn’s shoes.
The sad thing is that we still haven t come close to replacing Gooden.
name 5 shortstops that will outperform reyes over the next 5 years.
Why?
Hansley? probably, but not worth the headaches, Tulo? 100%, Castro 40%, Yuniel Escobar? 25%, Stephen Drew? 10%. Alexi Ramirez? 5%.
That’s it. One guy for sure and one guy probably but really just not worth it.
All you have to do is look at all the dinosaurs playing SS right now to see how valuable a two way SS in his prime really is. Jeter, Uribe, Scutero, Miguel Tejada, Cabrera, Renteria, then look at some of the guys playing SS right now. Combine that with the fact that there really are only a couple of blue chip prospects at SS in the high minors and even some of them are highly questionable if they’ll stick at SS.
If you don’t think Reyes is going to be one of the most highly sought after position players ever (with a big 2011) your not evaluating the market correctly.
Even the Phillies could lose their #1 pick (probably #29 or 30) gain a supplementary round pick (around #35-40) and also get another pick (#18-30 or 45-60) and UPGRADE the position as well. In other words they could get a BETTER #1 AND a supp pick, get younger AND better all the while spending money they would have to spend anyway.
The Angels, Yankees, Mariners, Giants will definitely be very interested. Toronto just cleared a lot of cash, Boston or the Dodgers could decide Reyes is better than their high minor prospects and trade those guys for pitching or some other need because of how few of them there are.
SS are in very short supply right now and will remain that way for another 5 years or so at least. 5/125 is not completely out of the question.
I agree with my cousin T Agee
Thanks Cuz. I noticed that you sponsored the Tommie Agee page on Baseball-Reference.com. Cool move T L Agee.
yup – impressed you noticed. Been using this moniker since the days I was on the New York Times Mets forum in the late ’90s. Agee will always be my favorite player.
Trading Reyes does absolutely nothing for the Mets. Let’s play out this scenario:
Reyes is under-performing/injured and the Mets are out of it by July. They put Reyes on the market and get some middling offers from Cincy, San Diego, San Fran, or some AL team. No top line prospect will be coming due to the under-performance/injuries.
How about if he’s healthy? Well, teams are still likely to try to lowball the Mets by not offering a top-prospect, (because he would only be a two-month rental) and try to force their hand. Maybe some team get’s desperate, who knows?
Plus, who replaces him? No team gives up a top SS prospect for a rental. Reuben Tejada can’t hit. Reese Havens can’t stay healthy. Valdespin has attitude probs.
I say hold him, then go for extension or picks at the end of the season. Unless some team makes a game breaking trade, I do not trade him.
I’m in big time favor of signing Reyes so I don’t want to see him traded at all but it’s untrue that he’s “just a rental.” First of all it does give a team the inside track on signing him long term and whatever it costs to acquire him can be made up for with the two draft choices if you don’t.
Mike Hampton was just a rental and when we “lost” him to Colorado wound up drafting David Wright and Aaron Heilman.
Basically anyone can try him on for size, get the inside track and then decide. For a team with a deep farm that is not going to be able to protect from the rule 5 next year all the prospects they would like to, a “rental” can be just what they need, an upgrade now, less prospects to protect and 2 more coming down the pike that don’t need to be added to the 40 for 3-4 years. For a team in this situation a rental can actually help now and later.
Good job TL Agee. Me too. I loved the way he played. Very nice guy too. He used to accuse me of selling his autographs in school when I was a little kid.
You can say all you want about the past decisions made by the Mets and the Wilpons…but the decisions being made now by Sandy Alderson are based upon good judgement. Let’s face it….most of the recent failures of our team is due to the health of our core players. What team can lose players of the caliber of a Jose Reyes, a Carlos Beltran, Johann Santana and a Jason Bay for the period of time they were inactive and still be competitive. Knowing that these guys other than Bay have been saddled by injuries the last couple of years is why the organization did not go into the free agent pool for any big name players. Until our core guys prove they are healthy what is the sense?
In order to have signed a Cliff Lee or any major pitching talent the price would have been ridiculous and of course a long term contract to pitchers is a huge risk that has already bitten them big time in recent years.
The answer is to wait and see if Reyes is healthy. He is the biggest key to the future. Beltran, if healthy can be trade bait for some pretty good young talent as it is unlikely they will resign him after this year. If not healthy….he won’t bring much back. Santana will pitch a half season and hopefully will be good but he is no longer the stud of a few years ago.
Wright,Bay, Thole, Davis will be the regulars and should be fine….but we are just going to have to wait and see….
I have enjoyed watching Jose play and would be sad to see him go. If this is what is needed for ownership then thats the way the ball bounces and noone has any control over that. Teams have traded away stars before and then started the rebuilding process. I hope the Mets do not have to do this but if they do I’ll still tune in and watch. I do not, for one, believe that our team could not compete without Jose. He does bring an amazing element to our team but without him we would get by. I would rather see him play out the season and then leave via freeagency rather than trade him. This could change with the right package but I see the draft pick as quite important.
Can we perhaps get a context for those 5 words?
Or is it just really slow and you don’t know what to say about the Madoff thing that hasn’t already been misstated before?
It’s time for a new saying! As David Wright goes, so go the Mets. Wright is our future. I used to think Reyes was, but he never improves and makes too many mistakes in the field. Get whatever you can for reyes, but lets also give Wright an extension that will keep him on the Mets for the rest of his career.
As Wright goes, the Mets will go nowhere,believe me.
hmmm. one of us has to change our name.
I think it is premature to say what will happen with Reyes. I want the Mets to keep him, and I believe he will have a great year. I guess it’s a matter of how this financial debacle is spin and plays out. I would prefer they move Bay & Rodriguez before moving Reyes.
“Your remark seems more like an attempt to steal his thunder and gain a public perception advantage should you decide to let him walk at the end of the season.”
I can’t say for any certainty that you are not right Joe regarding your opinion but I think you may be reading a bit too much into “stolen bases are a footnote” comment.
If indeed Alderson was trying to do as you suggest attempting to steal Reyes thunder and gain a public perception advantage should Alderson decide to let Reyes walk at the end of the season. Then his later comment when he says, “What we need in the future, lots of Jose Reyes if we want to be a good team. ” would have never been said by Alderson.
twitter.com/StevePopper/status/32616404268097536
I remember when Alderson did his 1st interview with Francesa he had this to say regarding Speed in the post season.
Alderson: You typically build your team…
Francesa: To get there.
Alderson: for the full season.
Francesa: Right.
Alderson: But you also have to be mindful that perhaps in a short series maybe speed is a little more valuable than it was over 162 games. I know that sounds odd to suggest But,
Francesa: No, cause run building is more important in the post season.
Alderson: I think it is.
realdirtymets.com/2010/10/30/audio-alderson-vs-francesa-round-1-talk/
Speed is a major asset (weapon) even without a lot of SBs. Plus, plenty of analysis has been done to try and determine the break even point for SB% (75 or 80%, not sure which).
so just getting a bunch of SBs is not in and of itself important, it is when you get them, and how successful you are.
and even the threat of running can distract the pitcher, and cause the IF to cheat.
stealing at silly times pads stats but doesn’t really add value.
also, it is not usually good to take one sound bite or comment of Sandy and run with it, you really need to look at a bigger amount of what he says for context.
ANY, I’m pretty sure it’s 80%, and Reyes’s career SB% is higher than that, so that aspect of his game does help his team.
But it’s true that Reyes (or anyone) hurts his team far more stealing 60 bases and getting caught 20 times than stealing 40 bases and getting caught 10 times. I’d prefer the efficiency over the total, especially when you consider that he’s already in scoring position on first base with that expansive outfield and the huge Mo Zone.
Wow, I thought we got rid of three stooges when Minaya and friends were let go. If JoRey is ever traded then it would not surprise me to see DWright following his steps. Reyes is an emotional player and if Alderson is trying to light a fire under his butt he better be careful cause I think he’s using the wrong approach.
2013 – No Reyes, no Wright.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see both in Philly, Rollins is a FA after this season and they have no third basemen. Good luck Jose and David, I hope you end up somewhere with management that appreciates your abilities.
management DEF appreciates David Wright…I think a big reason they were hanging onto HOJO for so long was b/c the relationship he has with DW.
management def does not appreciate Jose Reyes.
They have mismanaged minor injuries 2 years in row that became huge ones.
the contract he signed back in 2006, one day before David signs his was a tremendous slap in the face. David with less service time signs a 6 year 55 mil contract with a 1 year team option making it 71 mil, while Jose signs a 4 year 23 mil contract with a 1 year option making it 39 mil..
55 mil guaranteed vs 39 mil guarenteed
( doesnt surprise me that one of reyes agents is a former mets PR intern )
now when it comes to the fans…I think neither one is really appreciated.
if David/Jose played in KC, LA, St. Louis or Chicago, those fans would be idolizing them. u certainly dont see those fans making fun of players with thick accents, “los mets” jokes, or making fun of guys b/c they are nice and polite.
sorry, but the past few years has left me with a real bad taste in my mouth w/ regard to met fans.
delgado/reyes/beltran rank as #1/#2 in terms of their production as Mets all time. yet those were the 3 main players fans were blaming all the time.
I think you are overreacting. SBs are nice, but there are definitely more important aspects of the offense and of the game than just steals. And there is more to Jose’s game that just the SBs.
steals are in fact pretty insignificant. the value gained by an 80% stealer is marginal because of the tremendous cost of getting caught. its slightly better than a wash. steals are not a way to win games. a tremendous base-stealer is a minor advantage. better to just get on base.
Well, an 80% success rate is actually fairly valuable. It’s just that going under 80% and you risk doing more harm than good.
Of course, with Reyes’ speed, it’s questionable if he really needs to risk the SB rather than just try to advance an extra base on a ball in play.
with 80% success is it worth doing, but again, not a tremendous producer of runs. a “footnote” as alderson said. of course any player than cannot steal at 80% should never try as it destroys the offense.
I don’t think he took a swipe at Reyes at all and I think some Mets fans are overly sensative and are sensationalizing everything just for the blog “story”.
Stolen bases are absolutely essential to any team’s success. It all depend on what type of team you have too. It was pathetic reading the 2 morons above me try and talk stolen bases when the only thing they have to go on is what is on a piece of paper.
It’s also funny Saber Sandy says that then when he had Ricky Henderson on his team at one time.
Ironically, Citi Field is the perfect park to have a team built with speed and utilizing that speed as a major weapon.
I certainly hope Mets fans just don’t start walking around like zombies on blind faith and start believing anything this IDIOT Alderson says just because he’s the new GM (and I’m fearing it even worse than Minaya right now). Especially since the Cardinals break our hearts more than they should have in the 80s and what was their major weapon? SPEED and it was utilized by a very smart manager in Whitey Herzog.
I don’t think we have to be reminded of that.
So according to his beliefs Alderson says speed is a footnote and a manager is not that important – see Cardinals and Whitey Herzog.
It can get real bad around for the next few years and I’m not talking about the Wilpons.
……one more thing – Alerson’s remark was DEFINITELY a swipe at Reyes. No doubt about it.
If i’m the boss of a company I’m not gonna make a public statement like that about one of my employees strengths like that. This guy is an alleged Ivy Leaguer – he knew exactly what he was saying…and it’s ramifications. Another bad move by Alderson.
the same guy that recently was quoted specifically talking about reyes saying he was one of the top players inthe game (top SS, something like that), and even discussed the dynamics of his speed?
No, take a 1 line snippet with no context to assume that Alderson thinks SBs are worthless, and it is really part of his devious play to run Reyes out of town.
SBs have a place, but he is right that they are less important than other aspects of the game.
and speed does not mean just SBs. Defense is improved, and running the bases (taking extra ones, scoring from first on a ball up the gap, etc.).
Not sure if it was here, but someone posted a follow up transcript of Sandy talking to your boy Francesca about this in more detail, and he did say that they are more important in a short (playoff series).
That’s his opinion. There may be other who believe stolen bases are an essential part of winning. Again it all depends on the type of team you have, where you play, etc.
I think it’s arrogant of Sandy to paint it with a broad brush.
I can say the same thing about bunts. Maybe I think bunting and when you do it is more important than someone else. Again it depends on the type of team I have, where I play, stuff like that.
When I said speed i knew someone was going to go well – speed can be used this and that way.
I already know that. I was talking about speed in the context of stolen bases.
How are stolen bases more important in a short series? Practically everything is more important in a short series. Alderson sound so self-absorbed with his own Ivy League education that he sounds stupid when talking about baseball.
Clearly Alderson was taking a swipe at Reyes. I mean why else would he say, “What we need in the future, lots of Jose Reyes if we want to be a good team”?
twitter.com/StevePopper/status/32616404268097536
You say “Stolen bases are absolutely essential to any team’s success. It all depend on what type of team you have too.”
So which is it? Are they absolutely essential or absolutely essential depending on what type of team you have?
Look do stolen bases have importance? Of course. Now how much is the question.
Unless I misread something this is what I found.
In the last 7 years only once (2008) was more than half of all the teams in the playoffs that season among the top 10 in mlb for stolen bases.
3 of the last 7 W.S. winners were below the MLB LgAvg in stolen bases.
Only twice in the last 7 years has a team that won the W.S. also finished in the top 10 for stolen bases in MLB. None higher than 4th.
***************************************
2010 Playoff Teams Stolen Base Ranking
Above MLB LgAvg:Rays, Rangers, Phillies, Yankees
Below MLB LgAvg:Reds, Braves, Giants, Twins
3 of the 8 MLB Playoff teams were in the top 10 in Stolen bases.
W.S. winner Giants ranked 30th in MLB in Stolen bases.
baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010-standard-batting.shtml
2009 Playoff Teams Stolen Base Ranking
Above MLB LgAvg: Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, Dodgers, Phillies
Below MLB LgAvg: Twins, Cardinals
4 of the 8 MLB Playoff teams were in the top 10 in Stolen bases.
W.S. winner Yankees ranked 11th in MLB in Stolen bases.
baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2009-standard-batting.shtml
2008 Playoff Teams Stolen Base Ranking
Above MLB LgAvg: Red Sox, Angels, Rays, Dodgers, Phillies, Brewers
Below MLB LgAvg: White Sox, Cubs
6 of the 8 MLB Playoff teams were in the top 10 in Stolen bases.
W.S. winner Phillies ranked 4th in MLB in Stolen bases.
baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2008-standard-batting.shtml
2007 Playoff Teams Stolen Base Ranking
Above MLB LgAvg: Angels, Yankees, DiamondBacks, Rockies, Phillies
Below MLB LgAvg: Red Sox, Indians, Cubs
4 of the 8 MLB Playoff teams were in the top 10 in Stolen bases.
W.S. winner Red Sox ranked 15th in MLB in Stolen bases.
baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2007-standard-batting.shtml
2006 Playoff Teams Stolen Base Ranking
Above MLB LgAvg: Yankees, Twins, Mets, Dodgers, Padres
Below MLB LgAvg: Tigers, A’s, Cardinals
4 of the 8 MLB Playoff teams were in the top 10 in Stolen bases.
W.S. winner Cardinals ranked 25th in MLB in Stolen bases.
baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2006-standard-batting.shtml
2005 Playoff Teams Stolen Base Ranking
Above MLB LgAvg: White Sox, Angels, Padres, Astros, Braves
Below MLB LgAvg: Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
4 of the 8 MLB Playoff teams were in the top 10 in Stolen bases.
W.S. winner White Sox ranked 4th in MLB in Stolen bases.
baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2005-standard-batting.shtml
2004 Playoff Teams Stolen Base Ranking
Above MLB LgAvg: Angels, Twins, Cardinals, Dodgers, Astros, Braves
Below MLB LgAvg: Red Sox, Yankees
4 of the 8 MLB Playoff teams were in the top 10 in Stolen bases.
W.S. winner Red Sox ranked 21st in MLB in Stolen bases.
baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2004-standard-batting.shtml
Correction 4* of the last 7 W.S. winners were below the MLB LgAvg in stolen bases.
You should go to sleep.
I think Alderson needs to watch Reyes plays.
BB is not just numbers. Momentum change plays huge in BB.
Reyes puts the pressure on defense like no other player.
.
you should take your own advice.
of course bb is not about #’s. no one suggested it was.
when alderson says “What we need in the future, lots of Jose Reyes if we want to be a good team” should tell you what he thinks of him.
twitter.com/StevePopper/status/32616404268097536
that should of read “of course bb is not just* #’s. no one suggested it was.”
Bayonne, there is nothing alleged about Alderson’d educational pedigree, BVesides, in front of parsing NYC press, the letterhead on top of your sheepskin doesn’t indicate a more or less liklihood for misspeech, remember extemperaneous speaking is the bane of ALL irrespective of College affiliation. Besides, consider this, Sandy Alderson, Harvard Law graduate reports directly to Jeff Wilpon graduate of Palm Beech Community College (AA degree). Is Alderson likely to say anything publicly that might refute a Jeff opinion? Unlikely!
Don’t ever be so naive as to credit superior intelligence with a higher veracity score see heads of failed fin’l institutions of late Collapse.
Well I sympathize with those who think trading reyes would be akin to trading Seaver. I personally don’t feel that way (probably because I’m older and much less emotionally tied to the players than I was when Seaver got traded) but I respect that others might be that attached.
The question to ask is Reyes (all by himself) worth the kind of money he will get paid? Short answer is probably YES! He is a great player and has earned that kind of payroll!
But the question of “Is he worth paying that much?” is not a question (In my mind anyway) of his own personal performance but of the performance of the rest of the team.
Reyes on an island is probably worth 10-15 mil per year. But does it make any sense to pay ONE GUY 10-15 mil if the guys around him don’t make that investment pay off? is reyes worth keeping if you have a team comprised of Francouers and Barajas’?
A Hummer I am sure is worth every penny you spend on it’s own but if you do not have gas to put in it then what good is spending that kind of money?
As I have said many times, the resigning or trading of Reyes will have a lot more to do with what the rest of the team does than anything Reyes himself does.
If the rest of the team hits .220 then it won’t matter that Reyes is on base and stealing. To carry a 10+ mil player during a rebuilding proccess is a waste of talent and money regardless of how much the player is EARNING that money!
Reyes could have the greatest season of any player in baseball history this year but if Beltran, Wright, Bay, Davis, Thole and Pagan do not hit then we will be rebuilding and that will mean Reyes will probably be traded to get players to replace all those other guys!
And as much as I like Reyes I have to agree that if we are to rebuild there is no sense in paying ANYONE big bucks until a new core has been established that we can build around and once done, ADD those big money players to succeed.
Now if it turns out that we do not have to blow the team up then it makes sense to keep, pay and carry Reyes’ contract while we try to find a few pieces to add.
But if we are blowing up the team it really makes sense to sell eveything and collect as much prospect capital we can so that we can try and build a team that is worthy of signing a player of Reyes’ performance and Salary! because that 10+ Mil investment will have the support around him to make that investment pay off.
Way to much analysis on every comment and every quote. Put the team on the field and let them play. The lineup ain’t bad and the pitching has some darn good potential.
also i should not that it is critically stupid of joe to intepret that statement as a “swipe” at jose reyes.
Why is it that it’s not enough to disagree but that you have to insult someone by calling them stupid for simply posing an opinion?
Even in doing so Joe prefaces it with a “with all due respect” to Alderson.
That is the difference with people like Joe and those others that feel it’s not enough to just disagree but they must insult you or somehow disagreeing without you doesn’t mean as much.
If there is 1 thing that I dislike of the internet is that it allows people to say things to people they would never say to their faces simply cause they know they can get away with it.
I see how some may misinterpret this line so let me better clarify.
Even in disagreeing so Joe prefaces his interpretation of Alderson’s comment with a “with all due respect” to Alderson.
if you would read you would note that i didnt say joe was stupid, i said his interpretation was stupid, which it was.
My apologies then. To me i read it differently but i must of overeacted at reading where you wrote “critically stupid of joe”.
Not a new stat especially considering that you didn’t account for the times he got caught stealing and losing that on base percentage by creating more outs as well as losing that slugging percentage because that single or double turned into an out instead of a double or triple as you suggest. Plus, an added benefit of a double or triple rather than a single or double and a SB is that it advances the runner and produces more runs.
Wow,
I’ve read simpler explanations for worm holes. Pathetic..especially the last sentence:
“Plus, an added benefit of a double or triple rather than a single or double and a SB is that it advances the runner and produces more runs”
a revelation of biblical proportions! – doubles and triples are better because they score more runs than singles.
saber – traveling around the world only to wind up where you started in the first place.
Wouldn’t you have to factor in caught stealing and other things he would to detrimental to the offense?
Yes. Simply totalling successful stolen bases while ignoring the caught stealings doesn’t make sense. The success rate is more important than the raw total.
The positive value of a successful stolen base is far less than the negative value of a caught stealing.
Well,
Sometimes you gotta take a gamble if you want to win right? And usually the higher the stakes, the higher the gamble.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we didn’t have to take chances at all and just simply rely on the percentages of things? Simple right?
Simple.
Anybody with ANY common baseball sense knows you want to steal more in big spots in big games. That was Jose’s problem..and if he’s afraid to steal in big spots then you AS MANAGER must make the decision to call for that steal.
Or is that too risky?
well to be fair, he played almost his entire career under 2 very offensively conservative ( practically brain dead ) managers
Hi Joe,
Alderson is right about stolen bases, and here’s why I think that. Here are the 2010 Mets’ National League ranks in various stats:
Runs scored: 13th
OBP: 14th
SLG: 12th
Stolen bases: 1st
And 2009:
Runs scored: 12th
OBP: 7th
SLG: 12th
Stolen bases: 1st
The Mets were 1st in stolen bases both seasons but 13th and 12th in runs. Meanwhile, their OBP and SLG were more in line with runs scored. This is just a two season example, but I can assure you that the correlation is the same across the league.
Stolen bases do help an offense score runs, but only if the success rate is high. Anything below 70% or so is actually detrimental to a team. Even an 80% success rate isn’t nearly as valuable as having a high OBP and SLG. It’s not even close, really. Stolen bases are nice to have, but ultimately they are a footnote when it comes to what helps a team score runs.
I’m open to the possibility that I’m wrong here, but it’s going to require some evidence to convince me.
Oh you’re wrong, You usually are,
ummm…probably using the Mets, a team that was HUGELY affected by injuries the last 2 years is not a good example.
The use of stolen bases is relative to the type of team you have. See St. Louis Cardinals of the 1980s with Whitey Herzog as manager. Stolen bases & manager, 2 things your cult leader has minimized.
Difference is…Sandy and the Google Boys THINK they know about winning. Whitey and the Red Birds have EXPERIENCED winning.
Your trying to create a broad formula for something that is only relative to the type of team you have and also the type of park you play in can come into play as well.
you absolutely have no idea what the hell you’re talking about. Baseball doesn’t need sabermetrics. A team can win without ANY regard to that stuff whatsoever. NONE. If you want to hire a couple of interns to use that stuff when evaluating mediocre ball players at all levels than be my guest.
You say “Stolen bases are absolutely essential to any team’s success. It all depend on what type of team you have too.”
So which is it? Are they absolutely essential to all teams or absolutely essential depending on what type of team you have?
Look do stolen bases have importance? Of course. Now how much is the question.
Unless I misread something this is what I found.
In the last 7 years only once (2008) was more than half of all the teams in the playoffs that season among the top 10 in mlb for stolen bases.
4 of the last 7 W.S. winners were below the MLB LgAvg in stolen bases.
Only twice in the last 7 years has a team that won the W.S. also finished in the top 10 for stolen bases in MLB. None higher than 4th.
BMF,
Stealing bases certainly helped Herzog’s Cardinals, but the foundation of their success was getting on base. They weren’t successful when they couldn’t get on base. Here are the numbers showing that — from 1984-1988 (too lazy to do any more years) the Cards stat ranks:
1984
Runs: 7th
OBP: 7th
Stolen bases: 1st
1985
Runs: 1st
OBP: 1st
Stolen bases: 1st
1986
Runs: 12th (last)
OBP: 12th (last)
Stolen bases: 1st
1987
Runs: 2nd
OBP: 1st
Stolen bases: 1st
1988
Runs: 11th
OBP: 8th
Stolen bases: 1st
Do you see the pattern? They were consistently at the top of the stolen base leaderboard each season. But when their OBP was poor, they failed to score runs. This suggests that OBP was the foundation of their run scoring.
This isn’t about sabermetrics or calculators — it’s just looking at evidence and drawing conclusions. None of these stats are complicated. Stolen bases <<<<< OBP and SLG. That's all I think Alderson was saying, and he's right.
…or you can say when they hit less they scored less.
Saves a lot of time when you know the game.
“when they hit less they scored less”
Agreed! That was my point and I’m glad you agree. I’ll keep it shorter next time.
Glad we agree that batting average is more important than OBP. Gotta get those runs home.
batting average and on base percentage are equally as important. You need people on base in order to score runs but simply getting on base is not enough b/c you need someone to actually drive in those runs.
They are not as equally important,
You have to be able to HIT first of all, in order to play
- how you do it is another story
OBP can always lead to LOB
RBI will never lead to LOB
RBI is more important than OBP as well.
The first thing you learn as a kid is wanting to get on base, I figured we outgrown that by now. Evidently not
That’s only the beginning of the story. There are also players who can get 100 RBIs in a season but be awful in big spots. wink wink.
But that’s another argument for another day…just sayin
well in order for a player to drive in a run (not including their own run on a HR), doesn’t someone need to be on base???
You say OBP is not very important yet in order to get lots of RBI you need the guys before you to reach base. You can be the best hitter in the game but if the bases are empty when you step to the plate you will never lead the league in RBI.
We’re gonna go around in circles here, I know it
I didn’t say OBP is not very important – i said AVG & RBI are more important because you need hitters that drive in runs to win games.
getting on base is something you’re supposed to do anyway. Eddie Gaedel got on base but he can’t drive them in.
“You can be the best hitter in the game but if the bases are empty when you step to the plate you will never lead the league in RBI”
Give me the best hitter in the game if I want to start building a team.
Not a leadoff hitter.
Now don’t come back here and say that I don’t think leadoff hitters are important….just…..get it.
my point is you are contradicting yourself. You are saying that OBP is not as important b/c “you are supposed to get on base anyway” but aren’t you supposed to get hits too.
I 100% agree with you i’d take a guy that drives in runs over a guy that sets them up any day of the week. That’s not even debatable. But the most important quality of a lead off hitter is their on base percentage not their stolen base total and that is what Sandy was saying. Someone who gets on base 35% of the time and only steals 30 bases is more valuable than a guy who gets on base 32% of the time and steals 60.
Right, i’d take a .350 hitter over a .320 hitter any day as a leadoff hitter. I wouldn’t care if he stole a few less bases either.
agreed but all else being equal a .300 hitter with a .360 OBP is less valuable as a leadoff hitter than a .280 hitter with a .380 OBP. (notice how i said as a leadoff hitter)
While im sure you will disagree with that i will explain. A leadoff hitter is not likely to find themselves in many RBI situations so, over a 162 game season, putting themselves on base for your big bats is more likely to result in runs…
They can get on base anyway they want i don’t care how they differ.
We were talking about why I thought RBI guys were more important to win games and I will take RBIs over OBP any day.
To answer your question – it’s a good one. Give me the .300 hitter because he leads off only once in the game, the rest of the game he can drive in runs, especially if you have a strong lineup. Reyes is like that.
How many opportunities does Reyes get to drive in runs when he follows the 7th, 8th and 9th hitter. The pitcher is almost an automatic out and unless you are the yankees and have an all-star at every position, chances are your 8th hitter isn’t very good either. RBI are less important for the leadoff hitter than it is for a the middle of the order guys b/c over the course of a season Reyes will score more runs than he will drive them in.
look at any leadoff and #2 hitter in the game and you will see they have more runs than they do RBI and almost every #3 hitter and every #4,#5,#6 hitter awill have more RBI than R. That’s why OBP is key in the first few batters. Getting on base is the most important thing to have in the top of the order and driving in runs are the most important thing in the middle and back of the order. there just is no argument otherwise
i know OBP is mort important in your table setters. I know your table setters will most of the time have less RBI than the middle of the order. You know what when you first learn about the game. Runs scored? Not so sure about that
I know leadoff guy will have less RBI opportunities than the middle of the order.
“Getting on base is the most important thing to have in the top of the order and driving in runs are the most important thing in the middle and back of the order.”
No kidding. What is this? A beginner’s course?
If you want a .280 hitter w/380 OBP fine…btw that’s a big split!
If you want .300 hitter w/360 OBP -fine…i’m not overly disappointed in either one but i would prefer the .300 hitter..since all things being equal.
On it’s own…it’s a tough call
Yes the .300 hitter and .280 should come up with less RBI opportunities but a .300 hitter has a better chance of driving them in.
I’ll take the more balanced attack.
Again, knowing the rest of your team definitely helps to make your decision
Oleo I will point out that since you can drive in a run (themself) on a HR that you do NOT need lots of guys on base to score lots of run. It sure helps but is not required!
if you don’t NEED guys on base to get an RBI then getting on base is NOT required by anyone except the guy that drove the run in!
But don’t let me get between you and bayonne here!
ok you got me really confused now…
“all else being equal a .300 hitter with a .360 OBP is less valuable as a leadoff hitter than a .280 hitter with a .380 OBP.”
Why is a guy with a 1 in three chance of getting a hit better than a guy who makes an out more than 2 times out of 3 but walks 200ths percent more than the first guy a better leadoff hitter?
A POSITION that usually only leads of ONE guaranteed inning per game!
I don’t care what a guy’s OBP is if he hits better than another player he is BETTER than another player because I’m not just looking for a guy who walks a lot I want a guy that will get on AND drive in anyone who was left on from the bottom of the order!
your going to give up .020 worth of hits for .020 walks?
really walks are better than hits?
batting average is more important than OBP
case in point…
batter 1 – walk
batter 2 – walk
( double steal )
batter 3 – walk
batter 4 – K
batter 5 – infield pop-up
batter 6 – K
OBP for the inning is a stellar .500 w/ 2 SB
but with a batting average = .000
u score NO RUNS
this is why using isolated stats are so misleading…
Well I can hardly say you made a linkage there…
Truth is all you showed there was that jumping 7 teams in OBP had minimal affect on RS if any REAL affect..
SLG remained constant, SB remained constant, OBP jumped 7 spots and RS only one?
I don’t see where those numbers cited proves anything about the usefulness of stealing!
the SB obviously helps the numbers of the guy behind the runner. Just look at what Wright and Beltran do with and without Reyes at the top.
Here’s a link from Sports Illustrated from awhile back about the value of stolen bases, for anyone interested:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1125906/1/index.htm
im sorry but your interpretation of his quote is way off base. You are assuming that b/c he doesn’t value SB, he doesnt value speed and in turn, he doesnt value Reyes enough to bring him back.
If Jose plays like he did from 06-08, he will be brought back. Heck if he plays like he did last season (when healthy) he’ll be back too. Unless of course you are in the “Mets can’t afford him/too cheap crowd”
Also, there is a great statistic that incorporates everything a batter does and mashes it together in one number — wOBA. All the offensive outcomes are properly weighted. This includes singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, outs, stolen bases, caught stealings — everything! And it correlates extremely closely with runs scored. It’s the best offensive stat we have right now. Here are the Mets team rank in runs scored and wOBA in recent years:
2010
Runs: 13th
wOBA: 13th
2009
Runs: 12th
wOBA: 11th
2008
Runs: 2nd
wOBA: 4th
2007
Runs: 4th
wOBA: 4th
2006
Runs: 3rd
wOBA: 4th
You get the idea. The stat is already out there, it’s just a matter of learning about it and incorporating it. Here is a primer:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Everything-you-always-wanted-to-know-about-wOBA?urn=mlb-208135
wOBA is one of the better Metrics I will give you that.
But again it is about getting on base and is the goal of a team to get on base or to score?
You can’t assume that just because you get on base your GOING to score!
This is the bias I was referring to before!
All of these IMPORTANT metrics are predicated on the belief that OB drives RS. Well how can something that does not CAUSE RS drive it?
When you hit a home run does the fact you touch first give you a free pass to run to home plate?
or was it the act of hitting the ball over the fence that allowed you to not only touch 1B but all the others until you get to home?
CAUSALITY is probably the most important operator in any statistical analysis.
What happens at the plate determines if you get on base, how many bases and if you are going to score or not.
Don’t believe me then show me an example where a guy got on base and then did something to allow himself to score without any help from a batter or a fielder.
If you can’t cite an example where there was no help involved with a guy from second scoring then I say say you just proved getting on base didn’t cause any runs to score someone else did!
Players with career an OPS+ of 101 don’t command $100M contracts.
OPS and it’s counterpart OPS+ is probably the worst statistical practice that you can do.
take two disparate stats and mash them together and come up with an arbitrary number!
If you really want to mash them together then you should weight the OBs in the first place when calculating OBP, Not make two seperate stats and then ADD them together and divide by two!
This is why wOBA is better than OPS…it’s really just lazy math!
u mean like jayson werth ?
who is 4 years OLDER than reyes…just got a 7 year contract for 128 million…and …..despite hitting in one of the best ballparks in one of the best lineups in all of baseball….has hit over 30 HR only once…never had over 100 RBI ( despite hitting behind Victorino/Rollins/Utley/Howard )…was injured in 2005, 2006, almost half of 2007, missed another 30 games in 2008..
I think if Werth can get 128 mil for 7 years, Reyes might be able to crack 100 mil….especially when Philadelphia, Boston, LA, the Yankees, and the Mets (aka damn near almost every major market team ) may be in need of a SS.
its hilarious when u see met fans try to downplay reyes, beltran, and santana..
ted berg just came out and said that the santana trade was not a steal.
lol
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