13
2011
Can Niese Be A 15 Game Winner For The Mets This Season?
An article by 
Dan Martin of the NY Post, had a nice column the other day in which he included comments from an interview with Mets starting pitcher Jon Niese.
Niese made the decision to come to Spring Training early because he wanted to get a jump on the season and prepare his body for the rigors of an entire season.
Some of you may remember that Jon Niese started the season on a positive note and was for the most part very consistent until the end when he seemingly ran out of gas.
He finished with an unimpressive 9-10 record with a 4.20 ERA in 173 2/3 innings. Those numbers suffered due to a terrible finish in which he went 1-3 with a 7.11 ERA over his final five starts of the season.
This year, Niese is a man on a mission and his goal is too finish strong.
“I think I need to work on my focus, especially at the end of the year. I have to focus on finishing the season instead of coasting. It’s all mental. My body is up for the task. I don’t think I hit a wall. It was one of those things that I felt good before and after games and even during games in the first part, but in later innings, I felt myself get fatigued a little bit.”
One of the things he hopes to get out of Spring Training this year is to increase his endurance and stamina.
“I think I’ll try to condition myself better. Maybe not throw as much or have it more controlled, and that will help going deeper.”
Terry Collins is confident that Niese will be get it done and be more improved in his performance and this time better prepared to pitch well and keep it going for a full season.
“Now he knows what it takes to get through 162 games and 30 or so starts,” Collins said. “I think he’ll be a better pitcher. I think he knows how to take better care of himself so in September, he doesn’t wear down.”
I love a lot of things about Jon Niese. In many ways he can be crafty like Tom Glavine was in his prime, but he also has the intensity and ability to get those big outs when it matters like Al Leiter.
We saw Niese at his absolute best last season when he hurled a complete game one-hitter against the Padres in June. He retired the final 21 batters to earn the win.
I think it’s very possible that Jon Niese can win 15 games for the Mets this season, and I see him becoming a reliable number two starter for the Mets by 2012.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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I think he is going to have a good year. Pretty much what he went through last season seemed to be part of the normal learning curve.
he has very good stuff, and seems to know how to use it.
so sure, if they offense doesn’t abandon him, and the pen doesn’t sink him to many times (the part that qualifies as “luck” for a SP) he can win 15 if he pitches the full year and gets 30+ starts.
I know I’m probably in the minority on this but I would have traded Niese to the Rays for Matt Garza in a heartbeat. While we might have to wait 2-3 years for Niese to MAYBE become a number two pitcher, Matt Garza already is a bonafide number two starter.
Who cares? Steve Trachsel won 15 games for the 2006 Mets, and he was awful all the time.
That is so untrue,
Tracks may have got hit very hard a few times and that inflated his ERA but he did a nice job for us overall that year. He’s gets an unfair bad rap because of a few real bad starts that made his numbers look worse than the actual performance he game.
You haven’t a CLUE if you’re gonna say something like that
No, IKD is actually right on the money there. Look it up yourself. Nothing about that season was good for Traschel. His ERA was 4.97, his FIP/xFIP/tERA was 5.50/5.56/5.37, he walked almost exactly the same number of people he struck out, his WHIP was 1.60, he gave up well over one home run per nine innings, his BAA was .283, he startd 30 games and only had 13 quality starts, and quality starts is a joke of a stat. As a matter of fact, he had more starts where he failed to go at least six innings than he had quality starts. There’s no meaningful stat, sabermetric or otherwise, that would say Trachsel was even a decent pitcher in 2006. His 15 wins was due to his league leading 9.02 run support average. And that’s all there is to say about Steve Traschel in 2006.
Like I said – the numbers were misleading,
Obviously you’re trying to make a point here other than talking about Steve Trachsel when u put up stats I’m not gonna even bother looking up. You already know that.
Back to the point.
He had a few horrible starts that inflated his numbers. In the end the numbers looked worse than the actual performances.
A guy pitches 9 innings, gives up 1 hit & 0 runs & gets the win, next time he pitches 1 1/3 gives up 9 earned runs, no decision. Then he pitches next time – 7 innings, 3 runs, gets the win.
Sure he gives up 12 runs in 17 1/3 and gives you an excuse to lay out every single statistic imaginable to make him look bad but it doesn’t tell you what really happened.
Even ignorant people with little common sense and little baseball knowledge can post a whole bunch of numbers up to make them look smart.
And ignorant people can completly ignore statistics when it proves their archaic opinions wrong basically all the time. In more than half of his starts he failed to get out of the 6th inning. How can you twist that? And not once did he go past seven innings! He made 30 starts and only pitched 165 innings. Only twice did he go seven innings and give up two or fewer runs. As a matter of fact, he failed to get through four innings more times than he actually got out of the 6th.
If you don’t feel like looking things up, fine. But when your awesome, infallible memory is wrong, don’t try to disparage what actually happened to make yourself look better. Be a man and cop to the fact that things didn’t go down the way you think they did.
I dont care what you say, I didn’t say he was great or untouchable
Like I said he did okay for us despite his numbers. His numbers may not fit your insanely devoted ideology for statistically inclined beliefs but he wasn’t that bad for us at all. He may not be your type of player because you fantasy baseball players live by statistics but there were a LOT more behind his numbers.
He kept us in games but when he was bad he was REALLY bad and those bad starts inflated him numbers astronomically.
I remember it well, in fact I remember it VERY WELL. He was OKAY, just not as bad as you guys make him out to be.
Too bad you have to run to the Church of Statistics for guidance because you guys refuse to go by anything else
I don’t even know what that means, the Church of Statistics. Do you mean the Church of
I don’t even know what that means, the Church of Statistics. Do you mean the Church of What Really Happened?
The thing about your “analysis” that discredits you is how wildly inaccurate it is. A few “REALLY bad” starts inflated his ERA? If you bothered looking up something even as simple as his game log, you’d see his one bad start on July 21st, eight earned in 4.2 innings. Other than that, he gave up six earned three times, and no starts of five earned. So in his 30 starts, he gave up more than four earned runs only four times. It was the other 26 starts where the norm was three or four earned over five or six innings that inflated his ERA.
So it wasn’t a few inconsistenly awful starts, it was his his very consistent bad starts. Get a clue.
“Other than that, he gave up six earned three times”
each time he gave up those 6 earned runs, how many innings did he pitch in each start? That can have a huge effect on ERA and bloat his numbers.
“So in his 30 starts, he gave up more than four earned runs only four times.”
How many innings did he pitch in each those starts too?
“It was the other 26 starts where the norm was three or four earned over five or six innings that inflated his ERA.”
Actually that sounds about right for Trachsel. Inflated his ERA? Maybe – depends on how many innings he pitched in each of those starts – it’s all relative. 3 runs in 7? 5 in 5 innings?
Like I said – he was okay, a few really bad starts bloated his numbers to make him look worse than what he was.
But I’m with you a little bit here. This is where your sillly moneyball/sabermetric beliefs are put to best use – trying to get the most bang for your buck, the science of trying to decide which marginal players could help you the best.
Steve Trachsel got 15 wins for us in 2006. Period. 15 wins. End of story. It’s about winning and we finished in 1st place that year and he played a big part of that as a back of the end rotation guy.
He was 15-8. That’s not an accident. I bet if you were to ask him team mates who were on the field doing battle with him that year I bet you they would speak highly of him. He did a nice job for us as a back of the rotation guy..and yes….i put stock in wins. WINS matter. Period.
Your science, your study of trying to get the most bang for your buck out of marginal players is exactly that. You base EVERYTHING on that you’re gonna wind up with a ‘marginal’ team..kind of what the A’s have been turned into by Billy Beane…after 13 years they continue to decline.
Just out of curiosity, Bayonne, is 2006 Steve Trachsel better than 2010 Felix Hernandez?
Well, for your reference, in the four starts in which he gave up at least six runs, he pitched 18.1 innings. I’ll bet you were hoping for a much smaller total so you can “told-you-so” me about BALLOONING his ERA in just a handful of innings, but unfortunately for you, no dice.
Also, I don’t have any kind of moneyball beliefs. I put no stock in it. Maybe you shouldn’t paint all saberheads with such a broad brush.
sigh..stupid question or set up question…whatever.
No. If that was King Felix he probably wins 22 games and we may even go to the World Series.
Steve Trachsel is not Felix Hernandez. Trachs was a back end guy not an ace…now here come a slew of “what ifs”
But Trachsel had more wins. 15. Period. End of story.
Why doesn’t that make Trachsel better than King Felix?
Good job.
Like I said on this board before..this is some use for you saber guys after all. You can hired as interns to go fetch some numbers for me when there’s down tim. I’ll be the GM you guys just go fetch some numbers for me to take a quick glance at that’s it. But I’ll make the decisions.
Good intern, I’ll get you a couple of extra tickets to go along with your college credits at the end of your internship.
I asked a straight forward question. I don’t think its too much to expect a straight forward answer.
Why is it you consider King Felix the better pitcher?
That’s cause it went over your head Bayonne.
I don’t get it. At what point do we say “that guy just isn’t good”? What would we have to show you to prove to you that the Mets were winning in spite of Trachsel and not because of him?
Is there some objective standard to evaluate a player’s ability, or should we just check which guys make you feel warm and squishy?
He wasn’t that great, he just did a nice job for us that year. That’s what makes winning teams. You think every winning team has players with great statistics?
Do you even know what I mean by a winning unit? We’re talking about a back of the rotation guy who did a NICE job for us and HELPED us to 1st place in 2006.
I’ll say it again – he did a NICE job for us in 2006, went 15-8, which is no slouch any way you cut it. And he helped us get to 1st place.
Marginal or not so good players can have good or even GREAT seasons sometimes you know. Doesn’t mean they do it all the time…but that’s a matter of understanding life more than it is sports competition
“He wasn’t that great, he just did a nice job for us that year. ”
No, he just wasn’t good. He was well bellow average.
“hat’s what makes winning teams. ”
No, sending substandard pitchers to start every 5 days does not make a wining team.
“You think every winning team has players with great statistics?”
Yes. Thats exactly what happens. There may be different levels of talent distribution throughout the roster, but every contending team needs guys who perform well above the average.
“Do you even know what I mean by a winning unit? ”
Apparently its not a team that wins more often than it loses, which is how the rest of us define it.
“We’re talking about a back of the rotation guy who did a NICE job for us and HELPED us to 1st place in 2006. ”
I have no idea who you are talking about, but I’m talking about Steve Trachsel.
“I’ll say it again – he did a NICE job for us in 2006, went 15-8, which is no slouch any way you cut it. And he helped us get to 1st place.”
You can say it until your keyboard wears away to nothing, it will not change reality.
“Marginal or not so good players can have good or even GREAT seasons sometimes you know. ”
Sure, it can happen. this is not one of those cases.
“Doesn’t mean they do it all the time”
Of course not. That is why they aren’t called “great” players.
ha,
That long post by Donal quoting everything I say reminded me of that 20 year list by agee – a whole lot of responses and information but not really saying anything. I looked at that and went…wwhat?
Zzzzz
Ya, quoting you pretty much is saying nothing.
Out of curiousity, what do you use when comparing pitchers?
Donal,
This is where we part ways. Go to your mom and dad to talk about things like life and common sense.
My folks are retired in Florida. I’d love to spend a few days with them, but I’m in the middle of a major over haul for a client.
Do you know what Einstein said about common sense?
Apparently the person that posed the question cares, and it was in the hope that it is a good 15 game winner, why do you have to be a jerk and bring up 06 Trachsel? Are you incapable of participating the conversation posed?
I brought up ’06 Trachsel to make two points about the posed conversation. Those points being that pitcher wins signify nothing, and that a conversation that assumes otherwise has no value. All but one participant in the ensuing conversation understood that.
So yes, I am incapable of participating in the conversation posed, because that conversation has no value. I am glad to have sparked another, much more entertaining conversation, and I don’t feel like a jerk for having done so.
My bet is with run support by 1-8 Pelfrey,Neise,Dickey will all win 15 Games. This is the year for a sleeper. Now I will tweek Bayonne with Murphy and Thole in the lineup we will have lots of runs.
Jerry, with enough run support, anyone could win 15 games. Even Steve Trachsel.
You know what I mean. 2 Runs a game are not going to get it done. This team should be able to generate at least a descent amount of runs each game. Not the Santana runs 2 per game.
He knows what you mean, he’s just more interested in an ideology than winning…kind of like Moneyball – Billy Beane is the only genius I know of who gets worse every year.
What does Billy Beane have to do with the run support Niese will get this year?
Well if we are all OBP and no RBI a lot really! LOL
Sorry dude I just couldn’t resist!
Carry on! lol
Give me 15 game winners anyday i don’t care WHO they are or HOW they get it. Just get me 15 wins and help get me to the playoffs.
I’d rather the pitcher that gives me the best chance to win as many games as possible. If he’s some mook that has an ERA around 6, he’s not the guy.
You never answered the question of why it is you think King Felix is a better pitcher then Trachsell? It would be much appreciated if you could respond in a succint matter to the question
you can answer that yourself – don’t waste my time
But you said that the other stats don’t matter if a pitcher has wins. 2006 Trachsel had more wins than 2010 King Felix.
Doesn’t that make 2006 Trachsel better than 2010 King Felix?
2006 Trachsel had more success than 2010 King Felix did. And in this case that’s all i’m interested in – success. I’m not gonna bother answering who’s the better pitcher…that’s just plain DUMB.
I don’t care if he got bailed out a million times, if you kept your teams in the games and they come back and win and you have 15 wins. That’s all you need. I’ll take 4 of our pitchers doing that this year. I don’t care if one gives up 15 runs in 1 inning and loses one game and the next 10 games he gives up 3-5 runs an average of 5-7 innings a start – if he keeps your team in the game and gets 15 wins. That’s all it’s about.
Now lets put different pitchers on different teams and see if they have the same results. Maybe King Felix in 2010 is a 15 game winner if he was with Pirates..or Astros? or Orioles? Worst teams but maybe circumstances are different.
Don’t waste my time anymore.
But, if you have to get bailed out, did you really keep your team in the game? And why do you want a pitcher who “keeps you in the game”? I’d rather the guiy who gives me the best chance of winning. And its proven over and over that it wasn’t Trachsel.
And the problem isn’t just that he had a bunch of bad starts. Its that he didn’t have any good starts.
“and the next 10 games he gives up 3-5 runs an average of 5-7 innings a start ”
So, you are OK with a 9.00 ERA?
Wow, not sure what your problem is, but you certainly have one. You posited your theory on Trachsell, but are unable to engage with others questioning your statements.
You must be new.
15 Games relies on run support no doubt…
But it also does more for your stamina as a pitcher which would be a key to Niese not running out of gas late in a season.
If he has to fight his way through the early part of the season with very little run support just the mental energy alone will tire him out.
But if he can get decent run support so that he does not have to go to that second level to stay in a game then he will be in much better shape late in the season so he can do it when it probably counts the most.
[...] D. from Mets Merized Online recently wondered if Jon Niese could win 15 games this year. The simplest and most honest answer I can muster up is, “Who knows?” I [...]