23
2011
Alderson Can Put His Stamp On The Mets By Trading For Francisco Liriano
An article by Craig Lerner
In an article entitled “Is Liriano fit for the Big Apple?”, Michael Rand of the Star-Tribune writes,
If you’ve been fascinated — either in an intrigued way or a disgusted way — by the Twins’ willingness to entertain offers for pitcher Francisco Liriano ever since it became part of the landscape a couple of weeks ago, perhaps you should add this notion to the mix:
If the Twins are serious about listening to possible deals involving Francisco Liriano, the Yankees have the potential to be the best suitor.
Rand chooses the Yankees as the best suitor not because their prospects are any better than other teams, but because he believes they are so desperate after losing out on Cliff Lee and not coaxing And Pettitte out of retirement, that they would be willing to overpay for Liriano in prospects and money.
I don’t buy that one bit.
If anyone should know better about trading a quality arm for a package of schleps it’s the Twins, and they need not look any further than their terrible return for Johan Santana, a return that has netted them no profit or serviceable players.
It was Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune who first reported that the Twins “don’t plan to sign Francisco Liriano long term” and added that he’s surprised how open they are to the possibility of trading Liriano, citing discussions with team officials.
I like Liriano a lot, and not because of his 14 wins and 3.62 ERA last season, but because a deeper look into his metrics reveals a young southpaw who is far more superior than what those common, out-dated stats would tell you.
Liriano is a dominating pitcher and at 27 years old he is embarking upon his prime years.
His 201 strikeouts and 9.4 K/9 rate were first rate and even more remarkable was his K/BB rate of 3.47. Liriano’s 3.06 xFIP was the best mark in the AL last season. (xFIP is an improved version of ERA that eliminates unwanted variables so you can accurately compare all pitchers on a level playing field.)
Liriano’s WAR (wins above replacement) was an amazing 6.0 last season. To put that into perspective, it would have led all Mets pitchers including Johan Santana (4.4 WAR) and R.A. Dickey (3.4 WAR). Heck it was even better than Angel Pagan (4.9) and David Wright (4.1).
Nobody knows all of Liriano’s remarkable metrics better than Alderson, JP and DePo.
If there is a way for the Mets to somehow pry Liriano away from the Twinkies, the Mets should be all over it like white on rice.
Liriano would instantly become the ace of the Mets even when Santana returns. Liriano has one year of arbitration left after settling on a $4.3 million dollar contract earlier this month to avoid arbitration.
If Sandy Alderson wants to put his own stamp on the Mets, getting Liriano would be a fantastic way to do it.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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isn’t he injured ?
ERA has served baseball well for over 100 years, so have a little more respect for it. Last time I checked an MLB scoreboard in any park it still read ERA NOT FIP!
His ERA was included in the article. When looking at pitchers it’s the first thing I want to see. It was there. I don’t mind looking under the hood one bit either.
I think Liriano would be an outstanding acquisition depending on cost of course. If he could be had for Gee and Fern I’d do it in a second but that’s not realistic. Alderson hasn’t really had a chance to form his own opinion about any of our prospects and with so many glaring weaknesses this year and on into the future he’s not really in a position where he can take a chance.
The guy to ask about Liriano would be his DWL manager Ken Oberkfell who led the Escogido Leones to the DWL title in the winter of 2009-2010 where Liriano was the best performer on that team. Fern also played on that team as did Jesus Feliciano. Speaking of which, where is Oberkfell?
Gee & F-Mart for Liriano? I WISH..don’t think so though…try adding one more guy you don’t want to add, lol.
I know bayonne. Maybe Newenhaus, Carson, Niessen or Cohoon. Definitely not Flores, Tejada, Havens or Mejia, Familla, Urbina, Rodriguez, Harvey or Matz on the pitching end.
Keeping our high end prospects and adding to them is very important for our future with a choke hold being put on the cash and ultimately will serve us better than many of our higher priced acquisitions did.
But your right, I wouldn’t like to add that extra guy.
factoring in his contract status (2 years of control), he is going to be expensive.
FIgure Mejia to start. Then F Mart and someone on the younger end. That might get the conversation to continue.
there is a huge difference here vs. santana. They don’t need to trade him now, since he can’t walk at the end of the year. If they don’t get an over the top offer, keep him, and try again next off season.
I don’t think their going to be as concerned with keeping him out of the AL this time around either. I wouldn’t even consider Mejia unless it was even up and even at that I’d rather bet on Mejia reaching his ceiling over six years than Liriano remaining at his for two.
Oberkfell is the bench coach.
“I like Liriano a lot, and not because of his 14 wins and 3.62 ERA last season, but…”
probably a good time to look under the hood (and I assume that he forgot to add the JUST before the because!)
if you are looking just at wins and ERA, then he is really just Mike Pelfrey (15 wins, 3.66 ERA)
Also, the 213 Ks and 58 walks were not listed as well as Innings Pitched. Those 3 “OUT-DATED” stats as the other so kindly put, will tell the reader more than his original post. In his original post yes he does give ERA but NO innings pitched. He gives us the BB/K ratio per 9 innings but does not tell you the ACTUAL number of walks and strikeouts. That’s essential to know the exact numbers AND innings pitched…you know…the way it’s always been done.
You can figure out the rest of his advanced metrics after you list the stat line the old or the normal way.
Oh okay – he did list the 201 strikeouts…
I must have gotten confused with all the other numbers comparing Francisco Liriano, the pitcher, to Angel Pagan and David Wright, the hitters.
IP is certainly important, so you know if he was durable.
But the total K and BB is not really needed, since you have the K and BB rates, saving the math. The raw numbers are really only important in relation to IP.
I’ve told you this before about that argument. Its 6 of one half dozen of the other.
You want the Ks, BBs, and IPs? No problem. I can work out the rates from there.
If I give you the K/9 and BB/9 and the IP, you can do the same.
Nobody ever said Ks and BBs were outdated.
You are free to write an article if you like instead of just being so critical of other writers. I mean if they let Pomes have some space, why no you?
Nice post and I hope this happens, but I’m afraid I have to agree with the article you posted. Liriano will be a Yankee before the trade deadline.
Never mentioned was his 191 2/3 innings pitched.
So he struck out 201 and walked 58 in 191 innings so yea, by using the old “out dated” stats I could tell that his K/BB rate was almost 4 – 1. I guess if u need that exact number okay for you but I can tell the same thing by looking at the old “out dated” stats…you know…the ones most people still use…even the people on TV. He also gave up 184 hits in those 191 innings.
His numbers also got better in Target Field which opened last season, so yes, a big park like Citi Field, and facing the pitcher instead of DH could help him.
alderson will never do it,it might actually make us better.besides he hasn’t had enough surgeries to be aldeson’s kind of pitcher.
2009 was the only year he gave up a lot of HR’s even pitching in the Homerdome. He is primarily a GB strike out pitcher and gets his pop outs off the change up.
He neutralizes LHP very well, is dependent to some extent on his infield D but could even allow you to take a chance on playing Duda in RF once in a while.
Besides the additional recovery time from surgery one thing I noticed was he had lost a lot of weight last year. I’d like to know if he kept it off this off season.
High risk because of the injuries. High rewardbecause of the talent. He’ll probably be a Yankee though since they’re going to pull out all the stops to get a starter. But if the Yankees pass, would love to see this guy in a Mets uni
not that much risk unless you sign him immediately to a LT extension. Otherwise, it is a 2 year commitment (possible 3 with arbitration).
The Yankees don’t have a deep enough farm system to do it. And Cashman doesn’t want to mortgage the future for one guy again. The Steinbrenners might over rule him, but that would only hurt the Yankees.
And I’m not sure that even if the Mets do have enough to get the trade done, Minnesota would be willing to deal another stud lefty to us. They got burned the last time.
Let’s see there was Viola then Santana and next on the list is Liriano?
Hey, they won a World Series with some of the guys in the Viola deal.
But the current FO is going to be very slow to answer Sandy’s call. Even if the Mets had enough pieces to make the trade happen, which I don’t think is the case.
I guess but right now all this was just fun speculation to pass the time by.
Uhh.. the yankees farm system is ranked 9th with potential 4 superstars. Banuelos betances montero who is the number 3 prospect in ALL of baseball according to baseball america (I value their rankings a lot) and a stud catcher in gary sanchez. They can afford to give up a lot, Considering their payroll restrictions. Liriano will be a yankee.
Yankees have 6 of BA’s top 100 prospects. After losing out on Lee and at the very least costing themselves a World Series appearance, your probably right.
He’s going to St. Louis or Cincinati.
Be very careful with pitchers coming off arm trouble, the Mets already have a Twins pitcher with arm troubles.
It would be nice but again, what is the status of our farm system, do we have to give up any of the “prospects” that would be called up if someone got hurt?
Things to think about.