8
2011
What If We Had Used OBP To Create Our Lineup In 2007?
An article by Craig Lerner
In 2007 and again in 2008, the Mets missed clinching a playoff berth by just one game. No matter which team it is or even which sport, missing the playoffs by one game in back to back years is not a comfortable place to be.
As the Mets enter into a new era with a brand new philosophy based on tried and true principles, lets hope that it never happens again.
That said, I wonder sometimes if something as simple as a lineup tweak could have altered our destiny, especially in 2007 when getting shutout of the post season really hurt Mets fans the most.
While browsing through Baseball Reference, I found that the most used lineup during the 2007 season was as follows:
- Jose Reyes
- Paul Lo Duca
- Carlos Beltran
- Carlos Delgado
- David Wright
- Moises Alou
- Shawn Green
- Jose Valentin
Of course, throughout the season there were days off, injuries, etc., but for the most part this lineup or a slight variation of it was the norm.
I took a look at each players on-base percentage and wondered what the lineup might have looked like if we constructed it from highest OBP to lowest OBP. (SLG and OPS added for reference) Here is what it would have looked like:
- David Wright .416/.546/.963
- Moises Alou .392/.524/.916
- Jose Reyes .354/.421/.775
- Carlos Beltran .353/.525/.878
- Shawn Green .352/.430/.782
- Carlos Delgado .333/.448/.781
- Paul Lo Duca .311/.378/.689
- Jose Valentin .302/.373/.676
It probably would have given the Mets better results as their best four players would have garnered the most at-bats, and more importantly extended many an inning be creating less outs.
Interestingly enough, it points out what most of us already knew and that was that Paul Lo Duca had no business batting that high in the order. Oddly enough, in the second most widely used lineup of 2007, Jose Valentin replaced Lo Duca at the number two spot; an even more futile choice.
Although such a change would have probably resulted in at least a couple of more wins and vaulted the Mets into the post season, a better approach might even be as follows:
What if we stuck to the same philosophy except for one dramatic change. Take your two highest OPS players and stack them in the number three and four spots of the lineup and leave all else the same. The result would be this:
- Jose Reyes
- Carlos Beltran
- David Wright
- Moises Alou
- Shawn Green
- Carlos Delgado
- Paul Lo Duca
- Jose Valentin
Ahhh, perfection. This would have certainly been the best way to go, and I have no doubt it could have impacted the Mets in the most spectacular of ways.
One of the things I’m most excited about for the 2011 season, is that I know great thought and emphasis will be placed on things that were all too often taken for granted by the old regime, like filling out a lineup card.
This new focus on “win probabilities” is why I am confident we will see a much more competitive Mets team in 2011 than in years past, even without the big back-page signing that hasn’t gotten the Mets anywhere in the last four seasons.
Optimizing our current roster and putting them in the best possible position to win, will have the same effect as signing Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth and keeping things the way things were before. Getting more with less is always better than the alternative.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
11 Comments + Add Comment
NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
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Who cares about the 2007 and 2008 lineups? The only players still on the team from those lineups are Wright, Reyes, and Beltran. Those lineups are completely irrelevant to what the 2011 lineup will be. Also, to say optimizing the current lineup will have the same effect as signing Lee or Werth is just an absurd statement. Lee is a top 5 MLB pitcher and Werth is a much better offensive player than any Met outfielder, maybe even any current Met on the roster. Met fans need to get over the failures that were the 2006-2008 seasons. Sure, they had the potential to be more successful, but they weren’t.
It was an interesting article, well constructed and most certainly better than reading about what little money the Mets have to spend on a starting pitcher. No reason to post like a clown.
Wright (and Alou) would have seen far fewer LHP and Green and Delgado way more. In fact Delgado would have never seen a pitch in a close game in this line up.
They’re is WAY more to line up construction then just what guys did in other line ups. For instance the guy with the best platoon split (Beltran) helps keep your bigger platoon split guys from being lefty’d and righty’d to death in the later innings. If he’s hitting 2nd he’s not protecting anyone.
Well Wright was better against righties than Beltran in 2007. As was Alou (though that difference was minimal). Maybe some argument could be made to split up Delgado and Green, but that whole alternating the lineup LRLR thing is overrated, and Delgado was pretty terrible against RHP that yr as well.
I do like that lineup. Wright and Alou were by far the best hitters on the team that yr. But I don’t think lineup order makes that huge of a deal when you are just talking about flipping a few guys around in the middle.And a big problem with the heavy focus on the impact of moving Alou is that Alou only played about half a seasons worth of games that yr. Him actually playing would have had more of an impact than him just moving up a spot or two in the order.
Wright was quite a bit better against LHP in 2007 (and for his career)
Beltran was in 2007 as well as for his career better on a per AB basis against LHP although he’s no picnic the other way either which helps others in the line up. Green was absolutely dismal against LHP and shouldn’t have faced it as often as he did. Delgado had WAY better power numbers against RHP both in 2007 and for HIS career.
I can’t see why tweaking your line up, if possible, in order to get your best hitters more AB’s against the handed pitcher they hit the best would be a bad idea.
If Beltran was behind Wright the opposing manager would be less likely to bring in a righty especially if Delgado was then behind Beltran. Now they might then bring in a LHP to face Delgado but if he was backed with Alou there’s a great chance that lefty’s out of the game after 1 batter.
Conversely when facing a RHP going Delgado, Beltran, Green, Wright Alou may encourage an opposing manager to bring in a LHP for Delgado, pitch carefully to Beltran and then face the RH platoon partner for Green meaning that if you want the loogy to get 2 outs (Delgado Green) he’s really going to face just one (Delgado) no platoon split/benefit Beltran, RH RF platoon partner for Green and then neutral split Alou so he’s out after Delgado. One and done.
I’m not trying to say by any means that this works all the time or that it’s even possible many times but when your line up features such huge platoon splits you make it easy for opposing managers to match up in LIPS. One of the big reasons Wright fails in these situations the last 2 years is that he never faces a LHP. There is nothing in the line up or bench to encourage a manager to even leave in a LHP (even pitching carefully) against him.
Of course you have to have a well conceived roster as well as a complimentary bench to get your hitters more AB’s in situations in which they thrive and fewer in which they don’t and with the kinds of bench/role players we have had the last couple of years that hasn’t been an available option but with so many hitters having such huge platoon splits it is something that merits consideration and in my opinion trumps OB if it’s an either or scenario.
“Optimizing our current roster and putting them in the best possible position to win, will have had the same effect of signing Cliff Lee an Jayson Werth and keeping things the way things were before.”
As much as I agree with your lineup construction according to OBP, research shows that optimizing your lineup doesn’t increase run production from any other lineup by more than 15 runs, so there’s no way lineup construction can have as much impact as improving the team with one of the best pitchers or OF in baseball.
Most of us already knew that Paul LoDuca should not have been batting 2nd in 2006?
Maybe most of the saberheads but not most regular fans. I don’t want to speak for any group of people but I think most fans would look back and not even give that a 2nd thought.
The Mets almost went to the World Series with LoDuca batting 2nd. Loduca batting 2nd was NOT the reason the Mets did not make the World Series. Didn’t Randolph take LoDuca out of the #2 spot for awhile that season and realized it didn’t work so he put him back?
He was the perfect number 2 hitter that year because he did the job and that’s the way the lineup worked, not because of “statistics”. They know what they’re doing, not some kid studying sabermetrics on a piece of paper and playing fantasy baseball. This is not fantasy baseball.
apparently you still do not understand what outs are and how they hurt the offense.
Love the Mets.
I agree.
Coleman was never a good hitter. He was useful in Whitey’s offense because he could do a few things that Whitey wanted and he did them because he wanted to score a big contract and didn’t want Whitey chewing his ass out.
Once he got the contract and was surrounded with other guys who didn’t give a shit his game went in the tank. His defense sucked, he had no arm and only concentrated on stealing bases and playing golf.
He was just one of dozens of expensive couldn’t care less types brought in here by the Wilpon to cash a few years of big checks.