11
2011
What If The Mets Can Compete In 2011? Part 2
An article by Former Writers
Everyone knows I don’t have much confidence in the 2011 Mets and I’m already looking forward to the 2012 season. I honestly believe this is just a lost season, where .500 would be acceptable, but “what if” the Mets can compete in 2011?
Marvel Comics does a series of comics where they explore the road not traveled by their characters. Last week I looked at the starting pitchers and asked what if they perform?
This week I’m looking at the position players and asking “what if?”
What If: Position Players
Jose Reyes: Jose Reyes’ last season as a Met could be in 2011. Going into a contract year I expect big things from Jose Reyes. The last 2 seasons Reyes has suffered from injuries, what if this season he’s healthy? What if he cuts down on the strikeouts, takes more walks and gets on base more? What if Reyes steals not more total bases but steals bases at the right time, not just because he can? What if Reyes becomes the player we all know he’s capable of being?
David Wright: Wright is the face of the franchise, there’s no doubt about that. He also showed last season that the lack of power in 2009 was a fluke. Wright also struck out more last year than any other season in his career. What if Wright cuts down on the strikeouts and becomes the hitter he was before 2009? What if Wright’s defense gets back to gold glove caliber? What if David finally becomes the leader the Mets, the press and the fans want him to be?
Jason Bay: Last year was a horrible year for Bay. He hit only 6 home-runs, not the power the Mets expected when they signed him to that big contract. Also let’s not forget that he suffered a concussion and never returned for the rest of 2010. What if Bay rebounds in 2011? What if Bay can hit 25-30 HR’s and drives in over 100 RBI’s?
Carlos Beltran: This is Carlos Beltran’s last season as a member of the Mets. Going into a contract year what if he has a great season? What if he realizes that his days as a center fielder might be over and he moves over to right field? What if Beltran can stay healthy for the season?
Angel Pagan: Pagan had a breakout year in 2010. There’s not much to criticize there. What if he has as good or better season than 2010? What if he can stay healthy and contribute the entire season?
Ike Davis: What if Ike learns to fix that hitch in his swing? What if Ike’s defense actually gets better than it already was in 2010? What if Ike can cut down on the strikeouts? What if Ike can get more hits against left handed pitchers this season?
Daniel Murphy: It looks like Murphy is the favorite to win the 2nd base job. What if Murphy plays like he did in his rookie season? What if Murphy’s defense at 2nd is as good as his defense at 1st base in 2009? What if Murphy can drive up the count against pitchers like in 2008?
Josh Thole: What if Thole continues to improve on his defense behind the plate? What if Thole continues to perform well in the clutch?
Yes I know once again there’s a lot of what if’s and a lot of them might not pan out but it is fun to think about, especially with Spring Training getting closer by the day? If half these what if’s pan out, the Mets can possibly compete for the Wild Card I believe.
About the Author: Former Writers
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As a Met fan, what I am looking for this year is improvement by our young players and establishing a rookie or two on our roster.
Greg, u need to break out your standard version of Wbster’s & put aside the NY version you seem addicted to “Competitive” & “Contention” are NOT synonyms outside of NYC. BTW, throughout most of the baseball world .500 IS THE DEFINITION OF COMPETITIVE(equal opportunity to win or lose any given game). You seem to translate it to being a challenger of sorts, keeping pace with the frontrunners, I think Sandy may be more inclined to use the universal edition whereby he’s saying competitive & thinking .500, unfortunately his audience is thinking competitive translates into 90Ws instead of 81-82. Personally, I’m expecting 84 perhaps 85 with luck & health with an early June Santana return. Here’s how I’d translate it by the numbers as nearly 75% of my adult life has been spent outside metro NYC in the geographies claimed by PHL,ATL,LAD:
DISAPPOINTING = <81Ws
COMPETITIVE = 81Ws + or – 1 or 2Ws
CONTENTION GTE 90Ws + OR – 1W
There is a perception, I believe is often abused & that's a player's ability to increase his productivity on a whim at the Major League level. I find the concept of contract years to be an irrelevant 'no better explaination' for a player's having a career high point coincide with his final yr under a previous contractual arraingement. Does it happen? certainly as does typical CAREER YR PHENOMENON to determine a concousness between the coincidental concurranne of a CAREER YR with a CONTRACT YR? is more than coincidental is too far fetched for my preferences. This certainly rings more accurately described as coincidence than as a concouse increase in ability/oportunity.
I believe Reyes' OBP is more likely increased by his having played more in 2010 entering the box with less to prove to himself & less things to makeup for. a BB is less likely to be considered by him another lost opportunity for a BH he's uber hungry for.
Similarly, Beltran's effectiveness is more likely effected by whomever bats around him rather than the calendar/contractual yr. If, as I foresee, Beltran's batting 4th between Wright(3) & Bay(5),Davis(6) & they are having productive seasons, I fully expect Beltran's increased productivity to be explained as a "contract" push instead of as a result of extra work rehabbing & reestablishing his hand/eye. In a game such as baseball where a player's productivity is the result of his interractions with those around(teammates batting in front & behind) & opposed(pitcher) to him. the concept of selfdetermination as primary is much weaker than it is in other team sports.
I am not actually worried about Reyes’ OBP. Remember, he missed nearly a full year, and came back to play with next to no ST in 2010, and it really showed initially. Then he went through the whole hitting 3rd phase (shouldn’t matter is easy to say).
But, once he finally got settled in and his timing back, he was pretty much his old self. Over the last ~93 games (about 3/4 of his season), he had an OPS above .800, and his OBP was right about .345. He also hit 11 HRs in that span (a 162 pace of 20). So his power was as good (actually based on slg% better) than ever.
.345OBP is not fantastic for a lead off guy of course, but it is pretty close to his normal (he was in the .350s every year 2006-2009). and that includes the down stretch where he was playing thru a muscle pull and only hitting from 1 side of the plate.
given everything that happened last year, if he comes to ST healthy and in shape, and can stay that way, no reason to not expect at least the .350+ OBP and a big year out of him.
You have it all backwards. Don’t worry about his OBP, if he hits his usual self than the OBP will already be there. He’s gotta hit first. If he doesn’t hit his OBP will be low, if he hits than everything is okay.
I know they were both shortened seasons, but:
Jose Reyes
2009 BA: .279
2010 BA: .282
2009 OBP: .355
2010 OBP: .321
I don’t think alwaysnextyear is the one who’s got it backwards…
I have an idea why not let Bayonne worry about hitting and Alwaysnextyear worry about obp?
That way everyone is happy worrying about what they want to the most.
Just an idea.
I’m not worried about either one. Last year, once you back out his first omnth-6 weeks (effectively his ST on the fly after a long layoff), he was good, normal, whatever you want to call it. And interestingly, and maybe not surprising at age 27, his power (slugging) was actually UP last year.
No I don’t have it backwards Berb,
Batting Average is always most important because if you can’t hit than nothing else matters.
neither extreme works though (or ever actually happens).
a guy that hits .280 with a .285 OBP is bad, and will not be productive over the course of a season.
a guy with a .380 OBP but a .100 BA is also pretty useless (and much less common of course, since it is almost impossible to do this).
normal players live in the margins. And many guys over the years finally acheived success when they managed to implement some plate discipline.
when the .280/,285 guy stops swinging at pitches out of the zone and takes walks instead of outs, not only will his OBP go up, likely his BA goes up (from swinging at better pitches, and hitting in more favorable counts). Essentially he is converting outs made to free trips to 1st base, which absolutly makes him more valuable and productive (for the team).
BA is really only more valuable if you have some power (EBhits) factored in. For someone like castillo, there really isn’t any difference between a hit and a walk! But again, he is an outlier (Mark Reynolds is probably one on the other end of the spectrum).
But saying a guy who hits 280 with .285 OBP is not enough info. First of all most likely that combination is very rare, secondly you don’t know if that .280 hitter is hitting 35 HRs or 5 so that’s another thing.
Batting average is always the most valuable thing. Period. If you can’t hit than nothing else matters.
Everyone in the world likes guys who hit .290 with .370 OBP but unfortunately life doesn’t work that way. The real genius in creating a lineup is what have to do when you don’t have that convenience, which is most of the time.
It’s always smarter to not swing a bad pitches and take walks when you can and be a smarter hitter when you can. We all learn that in little league. But on the other hand you can’t change what makes a guy successful either.
What’s more important are guys that drive balls into the gaps and drive in runs. That’s more important than all the talk about OBP.
OBP is most important for 1&2 hitters. If you middle of the order guys not only hit for power but average too than their OBP will be good anyway so knowing it is not important at all, what’s more important to know is how many runs they’re driving in.
People come to the park to see hitters drive in runs with hits in the gaps, not guys OBP.
Bayonne makes a fair point people come to see players hit among other things but isn’t hitting also part of obp? bayonne keeps suggesting that obp somehow has nuthin to do with hittin but clearl it does or am i missin sumthin?
I know you abhor “saber” stuff, but that is exactly why so many people like OPS, since it accounts for getting on base and hitting for power.
BA is not really that important relative to this. As you harp on (for other stats) it is in and of itself empty. Hitting .300 sounds good, but if you have a lousy power output and not many walks, you still stink.
always,
You just can’t make a general blanket statement like that. You saber guys love to make it all about walks and that’s really what this is all about – people who walk a lot.
If my guy who is hitting .300 with not many walks is a slick fielding SS or a pt OF and fits in with my team’s needs than he may be a BIG help. You didn’t even mention of this .300 hitter with not many walks and not much power could possibly have 65 RBIs.
It all depends. The Mets went to the World Series with a guy like that as a PT outfielder – Daryl Hamilton and they did well. It all depends on what you need that’s why the blanket statements made by most all saber geeks are really dumb and arrogant if you don’t know what the rest of your team comprises of.
Also this .300 hitter with lousy power but a fantastic SS or pt OF, great bat handler, great bunter, great team guy may also be a fantastic clutch hitter. Maybe, maybe not. Just sayin because the Mets already have a power guy who puts up very good power numbers every year in Wright but you could throw that all out the window if the guy always pisses in his pants whenever the game is on the line – and that is his legacy.
The common miscomception that OBP is all about walks is asinine. OBP by it’s very definition counts both hits and walks. Other things, as well. The statement, “if a guy has a high average, the OBP will follow” is just a shortcut those who have no understanding on what truly makes a hitter valuable use. It’s just not true. There’s a bunch of examples of guys with good batting averages who were terrible hitters.
If the worst thing a hitter can do is make an out, why is measuring only how many hits a guy gets better than measuring how many times the guy reaches base in total, which INCLUDES hits?
What common misconception? Who said that? No friggin kidding OBP includes hits and walks. I know that.
“if a guy has a high average, the OBP will follow” is NOT a shortcut and don’t put words in my mouth saying I don’t know what a good hitter valuable or what makes a good hitter is false.
I know about good hitters and I know you know I know so don’t make stupid, arrogant statements.
If a guy is a good hitter is OBP WILL follow but you have to know what type of hitter he is first. The only difference between OBP and Batting AVG is walks and HBP. That’s it.
I dont’ believe getting on via errors or fielder’s choices adds to OBP so that’s it – walks and HBP.
Give me the guy who knows how to drive in runs first before the guy who has a great eye and is not afraid to be hit by pitches. I’ll think about that stuff when discussing what 1 & 2 hitters are available. Don’t tell me about OBP when we’re discussing the thumpers. That’s the last thing i want to know.
Darryl Hamilton was no RBI producer, no HR hitter. Darryl Hamilton had a decent BA but what made him an effective player was he added to that decent BA by getting on in other ways. He was a run scorer and a decent enough outfielder and yes, he did fit in with what Bobby was doing, and yes that helped, as did the fact that he played as hard as he could but he didn’t hit .360, he got on .360 which is why he was an effective offensive player. If he got on .290, without any power, great glove or arm he would have been out of the League long before the 2000 Series. It was what he did over and above that .290 that made him worthwhile.
Oh yeah? If we’re talking about thumpers, how can BA be the most important thing? Tell me how many home runs a .300 hitter hits? How many doubles? How many RBI does a .300 hitter have?
Just so you know, Luis Castillo has a higher career batting average than Ken Griffey, Jr.
x you gotta get your head out of your stat induced fog and use a little common sense. Common sense takes independent thinking – something that a lot of saber morons lack.
Like I’ve said before you guys like to take things out of context and run with and you just did again.
Every time your absurd comments are called out for what they are, you claim we’re taking it out of context. So much for independant thinking, right? Are you going to defend your comments, or just claim we’re all taking things out of context. Every single time.
What’s out of context? “Batting average is always the most valuable thing. Period.”
You have to understand that even those few times that Bayonne agrees with you, the need to disagree is too strong to avoid.
It is the most important thing. Period. We were talking about OBP and batting AVG.
You took that statement and ran with it and spun it around like you always do. That ridiculous Castillo/Griffey comment you made can be said for their OBP i could assume although I’m not bothering to look it up.
I said about the thumpers their OBP would be the LAST thing I want to know. Now you’re making this about semantics and as usual pulling the same garbage you always do by taking things out of context. Always pulling the same Garbage
I looked it up and Castillo’s OBP is only 19 points lower than Griffey’s so that means NOTHING. Nobody here needs me to explain the difference between the two players but this is where YOU wanted to take the conversation, not me, i don’t play those stupid semantic games. You do. You always do.
Like I said, I want to know how a player is as a hitter first before his OBP because if he can’t hit he ain’t playing in the bigs.
Oh, I get it. You change your stance from “It is the most important thing. Period.” to it’s only more important than OBP. I get it. Nice. Any other gems you have for us this evening?
Stop with your stupid game playing. ANYONE reading my words now can go back and read all my other posts and know where I’m coming from.
You’re just wasting MY time and everybody else’s with your stupid, idiotic game of semantics. That’s why i don’t respect you or your foolishly ridiculous opinions.
Only you can claim semantics when someone quotes you verbatim. I love our little chats.
Batting avg is not a good indicator of an great RBI producer in most circumstances anyway. The difference between RBI guys is not the percentage in which they succeed, that’s roughly the same. It’s the AMOUNT that they drive in WHEN they succeed as well as the AMOUNT of opportunities they are afforded.
The difference in RBI between Keith Hernandez and Jim Rice was that Keith would drive in one run (or 2) with a single or double. Jim Rice would drive in 2 runs (or 3) with a double or HR. Jim Rice would also drive himself in with no one on more often than Keith would.
Having all but a couple years of his career with such high OB types as Lynn and Boggs hitting in front of him certainly increased his opportunities and the more opportunities you have…..
right, in all my life I never confused batting average with being any type of indicator of an rbi producer so what’s the point?
Only in saber can these silly types of debates occur.
bayonne batting average is not the most important thing. thats a fact. why are you so proud of ignorance? batting average is simply not important relative to OBP.
OBP is a very important stat. And no SABR proponent focuses solely on OBP or would say that Castillo is as good as Griffey just b/c he has a high OBP. And actually those who are proponents of SABR are probably even more down on Castillo than the non-SABR people b/c he always has such a terrible SLG%.
Jose getting his OBP up is absolutely important. And Jose just hitting for a solid average does not necessarily mean he’d have a good OBP. Of course AVG helps OBP…hits are a big component of OBP, but its not the only part of it. If you play most of the year and walk only 30 times, chances are your OBP isn’t going to be good unless you are hitting .330+ like Tony Gwynn or Ichiro. Reyes hit .282 last yr, which was relatively similar to what he had done in the prior 4 seasons of his career. But he only walked 5% of the time and 31 times all season, which was a huge reason he was less productive than in other seasons.
And not that I put much stock into the “___ team won with X player” argument. But seeing “The Mets went to a WS with Darryl Hamilton” mentioned by the anti-OBPer about how players can be useful despite not having much power. In 2000, the year the Mets went to the WS Hamilton hit .276 and put up a .358 OBP.
It’s really a chicken and egg argument.
Does a hitter get better pitches to hit because he’ll take the walk (forcing the pitcher to throw more of the pitches that are easier to control) and in more hitters counts or is a good hitter more likely to be walked (semi pitched around) simply because he’s a good hitter?
In my opinion it depends on the type of hitter you are talking about. The HR hitter is going to be semi pitched around (made to hit the pitch the pitcher wants him to hit) more than the leadoff type guy due to the difference in damage each can cause. Dropping your K’s from 30% to 15% and allocating some of that difference to walks and hits is the difference between Dunn, Deer, and Reynolds from a Vladimir Guererro (equal BB to K) from a Pujols, Bonds (higher walk rate than K rate) You are not concerned with this type of players OB% because you WANT him hitting (not walking) but you don’t want him striking out like Reynolds, Dunn and Deer (33% of the time because that drags down the effectiveness
of what they do provide. You want them hitting, but hitting THEIR pitch. The more pitches seen the more chances of GETTING their pitch. If they don’t a walk beats an out and will only help them get their pitch in a future AB. Being in a good line up helps with this immensely.
Could Reynolds, Dunn and Deer change their approach and still do the things that make them good? That’s a different argument. My opinion is no way. Pujols is so much better because he can DO what Dunn and Reynolds cannot but would they (and their team) benefit from them getting better pitches to hit by not striking out as much? I say absolutely. First a walk beats an out any day. Second, one (or one more) runner on (regardless of how) with one less out certainly is better than the opposite, and thirdly your going to get an extra AB that inning, WAY more often than not and if that AB is positive you’ll be getting another AB (or more) which can only spell one thing. More opportunities to score more runs and your one line up spot closer, at least, to getting up again.
For Reyes taking more pitches would not by itself result in more runs but it most definitely would result in him getting OB more and since he can put himself in scoring position would by extension HAVE to result in more runs. Having someone up 2nd who does not actively put themselves into pitchers counts AND can hit would invariably create quite a few first inning RBI opportunities. The more opportunities, the more of them he’ll (and #3, #4 #5) will cash in.
Other than the first inning Reyes will be hitting far more often as a middle of the order hitter where his not getting himself into pitchers counts will really benefit him (and the Mets) Hitting HIS pitch rather than the pitchers pitch will really increase his value. Singles, Doubles, Triples and HR’s are going to be far more plentiful if he refrains from going outside the strike zone and MAKES the pitcher come in because the alternative (Reyes on 1B) is so unattractive he really has no other choice.
Reyes is not the kind of hitter that is being pitched around because of his HR ability. He should be the absolute last player not being pitched to because of what he can do once he gets on. Jose, like most hitters does his best work at 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2. He can easily benefit from his current reputation for fishing by simply looking FB early in the count and laying off the slider. This by itself will put him in more hitters counts and when the pitchers adjust he’s still sitting there waiting for the FB.
Through out his entire career, injury plagued to great seasons he has averaged a 5.6% walk rate with nobody on base. As a consequence of this he is progressively seeing less strikes and less fastballs. It is up to him to turn this around and he can do it simply by taking more sliders early in the count and forcing the pitcher to bring that slider back over the plate next AB and giving him a FB next pitch and that would improve ALL of his numbers.
Reyes getting OB more often then he has to date would result in more runs, more wins and hopefully a new 5 year contract here in Queens.
Neither Beltran nor Reyes will benefit from seeing more good pitches to hit in their walk season but hopefully they will benefit from good health for themselves and those around them. I expect that they will have good years.
Love the Mets.
if the SF Giants can win the WS with basically a bunch of scrubs (obv not lincecum, posey, and a few others) ANYTHING is possible! Lets go mets!!!!!!
Your hope for Daniel Murphy will be right on. I see 20+ HRs and a good defense at 2nd base like he played 1st base in 2009. The Kid is a hard wroker who will succeed. He in the lineup will make the pitchers on the other team having no one in the lineup to by pass.
That will be a great 2011 story. Lookin forward to many such stories in the years to come.
hope so. and quite often they come out of the blue, which is one reason it is so hard to predict what will happen in any given season!
No one predicted Dickey in 2010.
The only problem I see with Murphy is his defensive ability at second base. I have played A LOT of 2B in my life and to be a good defender at that position a player must have quick, agile feet. I have yet to see a quick and agile Daniel Murphy. If he makes this team as the starting 2B, it will be because of his bat.
“Every time your absurd comments are called out for what they are, you claim we’re taking it out of context. So much for independant thinking, right? Are you going to defend your comments, or just claim we’re all taking things out of context. Every single time. ”
You noticed that also?
Mr. NJ, I know I’m not the only one, either.
I just don’t understand why can’t those that like one stat over the other just be ok with exactly that? Liking their stat rather than this endless need to bash each other?
I say if Bayonne likes ba then so be it and if say xtreem likes obp great also. How bout it? a agree to disagree everyone? or am i being unreasonable
Your being completely unreasonable MNJ, as usual.
In any event for what it’s worth (verl lil i suppose) I find value in both stats.
Me too.
Unreasonable people can’t be reasonable. Metsie and I have an understanding. This “It is the most important thing. Period.” guy can’t handle anyone saying boo about his beliefs.
It’s the old saying about politics and religion except it’s more like:
Stats that aren’t on the back of a
baseball card
People who discuss stats that aren’t on
the back of a baseball card
David Wright
For me reading narrow minded opinions and closing yourself off to any new ideas makes the whole Wilpon/Minaya error easier to understand.
T, the biggest issue I find with the whole SABREMETRICS idolitry is simply, to me, it’s like averages of any kind, an average can either be way off positive or way off negative;but by definition rarely spot on. for instance half the “proven” numbers are too high, the other half too low; but they get you into the right church; but rarely into the correct pew let alone your assigned seat. All too odten Sabreheads treat the stats as the spoton instead of the neighborhood result(4 that u need to consider the human factor on grass/turf/dirt).
T, if everyone will excuse the CAPSLOCK I’d like to share my nonsabre, tip of my finger, estimation of what I see so far; I recently compiled an estimate of this season’s results which I shared the details,reasoning with my small intimate grpoup of family/friends NYM fans which, because I’m lazy, I’ll paste here verbatum;
I’d certainly be interested in how Sabres choose to contend my observations as a way for me to further develop my skills as a veteran observer of NYM baseball here it is:
FORTUNTELY WE ADDED ‘CAPPY’ BEFORE NYY CAME SNIFFING AROUND AS THEY HAVE WITH FRANCIS & DURSHERER, OBVIOUSLY KEEPING THOSE PRICES JACKED-UP BEYOND WHERE SANDY’S WILLING TO TREAD. CAPPY MOST CERTAINLY MAY BE THE “STEAL” OF THE NY OFFSEASON BEING CAPABLE, IF HEALED, OF SUPPLYING UP TO 15Ws FROM THE BACKEND OF THE ROTATION THAT SHOULD BY ASG BE MANNED BY SANTANA(EARLY JUNE RETN) DICKEY(11-9 2.84 1.18WHIP 104K,42BB) DESPITE MISSING FIRST 2 MOS OF SEASON GOING(4-2 2.23 37K, 8BB 1.00(WHIP) FOR AAA BUFFALO TO COMMENCE THE SEASON INCL AN 8.2IP PERFECTO ATTEMPT. WHOM, IN A FULL SEASON THIS YR I FULLY ANTICIPATE A MINIMUM OF 15Ws FROM DESPITE THE OUTCOME OF THIS UPCOMING ARBI HEARING. ROUNDING OUT THE ROTATION, I ANTICIPATE DILLON GEE WILL CONTINUE HIS POST MiLB EDUCATION WHERE IN 5 MLB GS HE WENT 2-2 2.18ERA,1.21WHIP 17K,15BB AS HE REDUCES HIS ACCEPTABLE WHIP BY COMMANDING THE ZONE BETTER. THOUGH IT’S CERTAINLY NO “BROADWAY” CALIBER ROTATION, IT’S CERTAINLY MAIN STREET LEVEL ESP IF SANTANA CONTINUES HIS EARLY PROGRESS(BEING CLEARED TO P/U BALL 1 MOS EARLIER THAN ANYIOCIPATED, LATER THIS MONTH. THEY’LL STRUGGLE AGAINST THE MIGHT OF A PHL,BOS,NYY LEVEL ROTATION; BUT FORTUNATELY THERE AREN’T TOO MANY OF THOSE AROUND IN THE NL, SIMILARLY WITH THEIR LINEUP I ANTICIPATE AS:
REYES(SS)
PAGAN(RF-CF)
WRIGHT(3B)
BELTRAN(CF-RF)
BAY(LF)
DAVIS(1B)
EMAUS/MURPHY/HU?(2B)Murph/Emaus platoon, Hu def repl
THOLE/PAULINO(C)
P
AGAIN, NOT A MURDERER’S ROW OR EVEN A MUGGER’S ROW; BUT CERTAINLY COMPETITIVE AGAINST THE PREPONDERANCE OF NL OPPONENTS. AS OF NOW MY BIGGEST REMAINING CONCERN IS THE BULLPEN WHICH AS OF NOW IS COMPRISED OF:
K-ROD
PARNELL
IGARASHI
BUCCHOLTZ
CARRASCO
MISCH LH (YOUNG(30) MLB RETREAD PROMOTED FROM AAA(11-4 3.23ERA,1.15WHIP)LIKELY AAAA SP)
O’CONNOR(NONROSTER INVITEE-NRI)
PEREZ
STONER(AAA PROMOTEE)
STINSON(AAA PROMOTEE)
HOPEFULLY PEREZ WILL BE JETTISONED PRIOR TO APRIL 1 OPENER; BUT THERE ISN’T AN APPARENTLY DOMINANT LOOGEY NOW THAT PERPETUAL PEDRO IS IN THE AL EAST PENNANT RACE WITH NYY. ALSO WITHOUT PEDRO THERE ISN’T AN APPARENT”RUBBER ARMED” EFFECTIVE RELIEVER CAPABLE OF APPEARING ALMOST NIGHTLY WHICH WITH “THAT” ROTATION I’D FEEL WAS A NECESSITY.
THERE IS, IN MY OPINION EVERY REASON TO BELIEVE FULL SEASONS OUT OF REYES & BELTRAN WITH A BOUNCEBACK COURSE CORRECTION FROM BAY THAT THIS ROSTER CAN CERTAINLY BE A .500 COMPETITOR; BUT I’D EXPECT A TON OF FORTUNE/LUCK, TYPICALLY ABSENT IN FLUSHING OVER THE PAST DECADE, WILL BE NECESSARY FOR A JUMP UP TO CONTENTION, EVEN FOR A W/C SLOT. UNLESS THE BULLPEN IS FUTHER IMPROVED WITH SOME OF WHAT I’VE DETAILED AS MISSING, 1)RUBBER ARM, 2) RELIABLE DOMINANT LOOGEY(LEFTY SPECIALIST) THEIR ABILITY TO JUMP FRPOM 81-81 TO 89-73(w/c minimum) IS COMPROMISED
THE OTHER KEY IMPROVEMENT WHICH SHOULD NOT BE A BUDGET BREAKER IS THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH AGE & RELIABILITY TO THE BENCH. YOUNGER PLAYERS LIKE EVANS,DUDA,PRICE WHO APPARENTLY HAVE ALREADY REACHED THEIR POTENTIAL AS SUSPECTS INSTEAD OF ‘PROSPECTS’ SHOULD BE SHELVED ON THE MLB BENCH REPLACING THE LIKES OF CORA & TATIS. WITH TC IN THE MNGRS’ OFFICE & SANDY @ THE HELM, I’M PREDICTING AN 84-85 WIN SEASON(JUST OVER .500 & JUST SHORT OF POSTSEASON CONSIDERATION AS W/C) WHERE IT FINALIZES IS ANYONE’S GUESTIMATE; BUT IT SHOULD BE INTERESTING AS LONG AS HEALTH PREVAILS.
’62, Like your ideas. Love your optomism. Don’t throw Misch away he could be a good swing man. Niese could go either way. Pelfrey I think will be the same. Capuano looks like he may be in a perfect spot in which to reestablish himself. Santana isn’t coming back as Johan THIS year.
I’m no Beanehead but I’ll look at saber articles and a lot of them are quite interesting. Like everything else, take what you like and throw away the rest.
Saber or back of the baseball card, I hope your right.
Metsie was just pulling your chain X.
Yes and no. If by pulling my chain you mean he was messing with me, I disagree. I think he’s very staunch in his opinions and very serious about them. The difference between him and other guy is Metsie understands that my views have merit. The other guy can’t see his way out of a paper bag.
That parts obvious. Metsie though is an engineer. He wouldn’t look at RBI as a predictor of RS. He was just kidding around. He knows their part and parcel of one occurrence. Just like with the Blue Jays low OB. An engineer would think to themselves “I wonder why they scored so many runs” An engineer that is also a baseball fan would have heard about Bautista, Wells, Buck, Hill, Encarnation and known right away where to look for the reason. Low OB but twice as many HR’s as the Mets and yet even with those extra 129 HR’s, assuming all of them were solo shots (not a bad assumption w/a .312 OBP) only scored 90 more runs than we did and WE had such a bad OB. He would have to have known he was actually proving your point.
Imagine if they had a league avg OB% in front of those HR’s. Their poor OB actually caused them to score far less runs than they could be reasonably expected to. Think about it, 743 RS vs. 257 HR’s. Theoretically they could have hit nothing but 3 run HR’s to score each and every run they scored.
Take the Twins a low HR hitting team last year. 142 768. They could hit a grand slam every HR and still have to find a way to score 200 more runs. No team in the Majors could have scored ALL the runs they did by hitting nothing but Grand slams and yet Toronto could have done it with 3 run HR’s. Kind of proves your point doesn’t it.
I’ve been on many sales calls through the years with engineers. They know exactly where to look and what questions to ask to get to the bottom line on anything. He was kidding around with you, probably just to disprove a blanket statement even though he has to know (especially by bringing up Toronto) that it IS a very reliable indicator (although not infallible.
THE HAPPY RECAP
OK let’s see if I am following this so far between Xtreem & Bayonne.
Bayonne: “Don’t tell me about OBP when we’re discussing the thumpers. That’s the last thing i want to know.”
A reasonable response? Yes. I mean if by thumper you mean a person that drives runs in (which I don’t wan’t to a$$ume that is what is meant for the record) then a “thumper’s obp definitely doesnt tell you how good he is at driving runs in. Also neither does a batting average.
So I “guess” Bayonne is saying he doesn’t want neither the obp nor ba since they both don’t tell how good a player is at driving runs in. Which is what Xtreem also said I believe.
Xtreem: “Oh yeah? If we’re talking about thumpers, how can BA be the most important thing? Tell me how many home runs a .300 hitter hits?
How many doubles? How many RBI does a .300 hitter have?”
Am I following this right so far?
Then to confirm xtreem’s point that ba has little use when discussing thumpers he said,
Xtreem: “Just so you know, Luis Castillo has a higher career batting average than Ken Griffey, Jr.”
Thereby comparing Griffey a known thumper to Castillo who is far from it.
Bayonn’es reply?
Bayonne: “Like I’ve said before you guys (I a$$ume saber people but I may be wrong apologies if I am wrong) like to take things out of context and run with and you just did again.”
Now I am not sure it is out of context since the discussion revolves around the topic of obp and ba but whatever.
Anyway if I am following things so far correctly Bayonne adds
Bayonne: “That ridiculous Castillo/Griffey comment you made can be said for their OBP i could assume although I’m not bothering to look it up.
I said about the thumpers their OBP would be the LAST thing I want to know.”
I agree 100% with Bayonne both obp and ba can be interchanged and the result would be the same. That Bayonne says that obp is the last thing
he wants to know is fair also. I would guess that ba is the 2nd to last thing he wants to know as well since both accomplish the same thing
when discussing thummpers.
Does that sound about right?
Nope, not right at all. You took the entire thing out of context.
You know I thought you was serious till I saw your smiley stickin its tongue out at me. LoL
That’s me. Sly humor.