6
2011
There’s A Lot More Right With The Mets Than Wrong
An article by Tie Dyed
Gil Hodges must’ve been crazy! The Mets had just lost 101 games and finished in 10th place, 40 ½ GB of the Cardinals. Yet when Hodges was hired by the Mets in the off-season of 1967 he stated, ‘I see a lot more right with the Mets than wrong.’
Hodges first year as skipper provided us 73 wins, most in team history to date. And we all know what happened the year after. He and Mets management had the foresight to see that the Mets had a good foundation to build upon. No one talked of ‘rebuilding.’
Ten plus years later the Payson family sold the team to Fred Wilpon and Doubleday & Co. The 79 club lost 99 games and was mathematically eliminated in late August, finishing 35 ½ behind the eventual World Champion Pirates. Over the previous 3+ seasons Mets management had traded away everyone worth a damn. They sat by while the Farm System fell into disarray and Shea became a very dilapidated 15 year old stadium.
At this point in time rebuilding WAS necessary. While the players on that team tried their best, never gave up and played with heart, they simply were not that good. Lee Mazzilli was our big RBI producer, knocking in 79 while Joel Youngblood was our HR threat with 16. Only 2 players on the team hit over 275.
The pitching was just as anemic. After Craig Swan’s team leading 14 victories no one else had more then 6. Skip Lockwood
was our closer and ended the season with 9 saves.
It was clear that major work would be needed. Frank Taveras and Pat Zachary are NOT the kind of foundation you build around.
Three decades later we are rebuilding again. In 1979 it was necessary. In 2011 I don’t feel it is.
Do the Mets have issues? Absolutely. However, I see the Mets nowadays more reminiscent of 1967 then 1979. To echo Gil Hodges’ words, I also see more right with the Mets then wrong.
Perhaps I’m blinded by my faith to this team but when you have a ‘core’ of Wright, Reyes and Beltran and an ace like Santana, you’re never far away from being a legitimate contender. Granted, 3 of those 4 players have displayed an inability to stay healthy. But all things considered, I would gladly match a healthy Wright/Reyes/Beltran against the top 3 hitters on any team in the league. And on a good day I’d definitely match a healthy Johan against a Cliff Lee or Roy Halladay.
The big problem facing the Mets are attitude and injuries. No matter how much you spend, no matter if your GM is Omar or Alderson, injuries are an unavoidable part of the game. The point can be argued that had the previous GM provided us more depth things would be different. But when a player the caliber of Reyes or Beltran goes down no one from the bench can fill that void.
Am I the only one who sees this bigger picture? 1) The Wilpons lose tens of millions, if not more. 2) The Wilpons hire Sandy Alderson. 3) Alderson comes in and says we need to rebuild and stay away from signing big name players. 4) Mets fans agree.
In my opinion if it’s a choice between A) hoping Reyes and Beltran stay healthy or B) replacing those guys and praying someone else can have the impact they do, I’d quickly choose A. Would you rather wait for a healthy Reyes and Beltran or wait for some rookie to come up and hope he can become an impact player like his predecessors?
David Wright. Jose Reyes. Carlos Beltran. Johan Santana. When you start with a foundation like this, you don’t tear it down and start over. Instead you build a championship upon it. I am sure almost any other team in the majors would gladly build a winner and look to the future with these 4 players. But not Sandy Alderson and the Mets management.
In 2006 we were ready to build a winner around Wright, Reyes and Beltran. Now suddenly we are willing to build a winner without them?
About the Author: Rob Silverman
It was 1973 when my dad introduced this 7 year old kid to Baseball and the Mets. It's been a love and passion that has lasted for 40 years, much longer than my first marriage. Since I was little, there've been 2 things I've always dreamed of: 1) Being a successful author and 2) playing right field for the Mets after Rusty Staub retired. Although 4 decades have passed and based on the current condition of the Mets, I have not given up on either dream
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 24 | 18 | .571 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 20 | .535 | 1.5 |
| Phillies | 20 | 23 | .465 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 16 | 24 | .400 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 11 | 32 | .256 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/18/2013
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“3) Alderson comes in and says we need to rebuild and stay away from signing big name players. 4) Mets fans agree.”
I can only wish this was true.
Well Beltran is older now but other than that I do agree this core is capable of winning. There is a need for a true clean-up hitter. I am hopeing that Davis becomes this in the five hole. Are pitching is no were near in the condition that it was in 67. Our prospects are not that strong and the lead guy is still probably a year away. The team does need to shed some payroll with certain non contributors gumming up the works. I know they are preaching rebuilding but so far they have not traded anyone of consequence away. I believe they are in waiting mode. Waiting out some less than favorable contracts. That being said restocking the minors in a specific way should help the team long term. I really don’t see any true rebuilding like people have mentioned.
Nathan, me thinks as much of the “ribuilding mode” touted by mediatypes is as accurate a pronouncement as the suppositions surrounding Coughlin’s future with playoffless Giants a couple of weeks ago. I think Sandy may be cautous with players like Reyes & then Wright to see how they measure up in the short-term compared to what their agents propose when their respective contracts expire Alderson was ALL too eager to explain SB are only bad risks with avg players; not with exceptional basestealing types. Wonder why?
In his role of Monryball initiator, Alderson has far more freedom to alter it than the mimicing publicized by accolyte, Beane. With his position firmly solidified, surrounded by experienced interoffice warriors, Riccardi & DiPodesta, Alderson is in an extremely preferential position well guarded from the typical intrigues launched successfully against his isolated predecessors, Phillips,Duquette,Minaya. from this fortified position he can boldly question heretofor ballwarks of Wilpon interference such as the declared Slot guideline loyalty/affinity. Was voluntarily offering Arbitration to Feliciano a victory over Wilpon restrictive behavior/mandates? Let’s ho[pe so! While many touts focus on Cashen’s dealing of Mazilli for Darling/Terrell few ever mention Mazzilli despite being best young talent on those Mets pales in comparative talent to both Reyes & Wright individualy.
Unfortunately it appears we’ve wasted the opportunities presented by acquiring Beltran & Santana due to overly conservative executive decisions & injuries deminishing the anticipated productions to be received during their remaining PRIME YEARS(28-32)
Of the four remaining “core” players mentionec in this posting, only Reyes & Wright still have their complete PRIMES remaining before them, with Beltran(34) & Santana(32) most likely have already had their most productive seasons.
Just as the Phillies run in ’07 coincided with the commencement of the PRIMARY PRODUCTION periods for UTLEY,HOWARD & ROLLINS so to should we not sell the collective effect of the Phillies core aging past prime coinciding with the Met core’s entering it. Few choose to realize that Utley & Howard were witin 2 -3 yrs of their PRIME when debuting @ age 25 while Reyes & Wruight were comparatively early promotion 4-6 yrs removed from those top production years, now upon us. between their respective callups & their best productive seasons there’s certainly been too long a period to breed discontent from fans anticipating that which those players were not quite developed/matured enough to provide. Consider them as not quite ready for PRIME PRODUCTION players rather than disappoitments the Media tends to describe them as
THIS IS WHAT WE’VE BEEN WAITING FOR!
WHAT WE WERE PROMISED!
Love the Mets.
David Wright. Jose Reyes. Carlos Beltran. Johan Santana was the foundation and they tried to build around it. The attempt failed (see 2009, 2010 season)
Now you have a Beltran in the last yr of a contract that we don’t know if he can play for an entire season and Santana which until he is pitching again no one knows if he will ever pitch well again.
You have Reyes and Wright add to that Bay and there is (assuming Reyes resigns after 2011) your core.
You want to build around that? OK.
Here is where they are so far, Ike Davis, Mike Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese.
You say “I am sure almost any other team in the majors would gladly build a winner and look to the future with these 4 players”. If teams knew that Santana and Beltran were going to be fully recovered then I could maybe see that as a possibility but how can any team say that right now when Santana has yet to throw 1 pitch after his surgery from a mound and Beltran has yet to play a game without a brace?
2011 will be a changing of the guard type season in my opinion with some players playing at Citi for possibly the last time while new players emerge to be part of the future the hope is by this time next year there will be a much clearer picture of which players will be part of the future.
North, point of architectural order, u don’t build around foundations; byr upoon them & when the foundation crumbles it’s rarely due to the bricks laying atop it. remove the foundation & the support structure collapses. consider these #s…
GAMES PLAYED
CORE ’09 ’10
WRIGHT 144 157
REYES 36 133
SANTANA 25GS 29GS
DELGADO 26 0
To anticipate subsequent walls laid upon that foundation to stand is foolish, even had there been adequate ‘yutes’ on the farm for callup.
OK 1. your getting too carried away with the use of the word “build” for me. 2. If your suggestion is it’s foolish to try and build a winning team around Wright & Reyes I respectfully disagree.
Gil Hodges, did light a fire under that team. We need someone to come with the match to re-light that kind of fire again.We need a team leader. Maybe Thole or Davis will step forward as a leader? But untill then, we are still like a ship without a rudder.
Thole and Davis are too young to be leaders on the team. With Santana down for 1/2 the season and questionable afterwards the pitching staff will have to see who leads every 5th day. With Beltran already having one knee out the door and Reyes right behind him, Frankie worried only about his vesting option do you think anyone’s going to stop and listen to Thole or Davis? With another year like last and most of 2009 Angel Pagan will lead us on the field in 2012 along with Wright and the young guys will fall right into line.
No, this is a clean up year, with some guys in their walk seasons, should be motivated and could be competative but first and foremost this is a team, and franchise, in transition.
Hodges did a great job of lighting the fire, but it took someone on the field to make it happen. That someone was Tom Seaver. That is the ingredient that is required now. What is the name that will come forward to be the Tom Terrific of the current Mets?
You have to keep Reyes and Wright.
Sandy Alderson and his front office are good baseball people and I have to believe that they see this.
Radio heads and the newspapers talk about trading Reyes or letting him become a free agent because they want a big story…and to kill the Mets when he’s gone…nothing more.
Any Mets fan with common sense wants Reyes to be a Met in 2012 and beyond.
The 2012 free agent class is crap aside from JOSE REYES, Chris Carpenter (not mentioned by anyone as a picther the Mets should go after in 2012. I’ll be the FIRST!), Albert Puljos and Prince Feilder.
Here’s hoping that Beltran has a monster walk year…..that is a win win situation for the Mets.
In 2012 just for starters, we have to sign Jose Jose Jose Reyes and go after Chris Carpenter if we really want to compete against the Phillies.
There will be many bidders for Jose next off season. LAA, SF, LAD, Philly, Boston, NYY, Seattle, Atl, Balt could all be in on him. If he’s not extended by the All Star game he’s as good as gone.
Sooooo….If Jose does become a free agent the Mets are supposed to put their tails between their legs and run just because other teams will be bidding on him?
With that type of mentality the team should just move out of New York.
The Sissyfication of the Mets must stop.
Sissyfication of the Mets has been a business practice of the Wilpon for 25 years.
Looking good on paper in February in order to claim they did everything they could in order to avoid any criticism in October is the only thing the Wilpon has succeeded in, in over a quarter of a decade of failed leadership, vision, and results.
Expecting numerous IF’S to pan out every year in the face of convincing evidence that almost none of them ever do and continuing to do the same damn thing year after year under every single GM they have ever hired instead of having the balls to build a real team capable of kicking ass every single year, year after year is the literal definition of sissyfication.
Claiming they didn’t “sign Perez.” They gave Omar “everything he asked for” is just a continuation of the same old failure to ever plan ahead for anything except avoiding accountability for THEIR failure to identify, draft, sign and develop a continuing source of in house solutions to our numerous glaring defects.
Mark my words, come July 4th there will be no reason for Reyes to sign here rather than extract every single dollar possible and when he does we’ll fold like a sad sack of s**t because of all the freaks in the past that we did give too many years and too many guaranteed dollars to over the years.
Rock solid POST. 100 percent on point.
I can see how you might feel that if not extended by the A.S.B. Reyes is “as good as gone” but I am willing to take that risk rather than having the GM try to resign Reyes prematurely solely on the basis of what others may offer him come the off season.
I don’t like the idea of creating a fictional deadline to get a deal done on the basis of what one perceives a player may or may not be offered come the off season.
MNJ, Projecting the market ahead of time for a player you want to resign goes a long way towards deciding what type of offer your going to make. Reyes agent will certainly be projecting what he feels is likely come the next off season.
We don’t know one way or another how the Met FO views Reyes going forward. All we can do is speculate. I’m quite sure their not enamored with his OB% and considering that is the most important thing for a leadoff hitter I doubt they value him as highly as other teams will.
When evaluating other teams players that become available most overlook the warts and focus only on the potential (no one more so than us) but still with SO many teams, and big market one’s at that, lacking a bonafide SS and so few Major League close SS’s in the minors (Only LAD and BOS have anyone close) the bidding, assuming he stays healthy, is going to be Crawford like.
The most likely scenario by far is Alderson realizes this too and properly values Reyes contribution, gets turned down and looks for something better than two draft choices to rebuild with.
Reyes staying healthy and continued poor production at SS from LAA, SF, or injuries to Jeter, Lowrie, Scutero and not coming around with the bat by Iglesies could bring a bidding war and allow Alderson to use the money saved to get his kind of players here as well as a big time solution to one problem or a couple of decent solutions to more than one.
I understand your analysis and I don’t necessarily disagree with it but I personally just don’t like the idea of creating a fictional deadline for signing a player during the season out of fear of said player seeing free agency.
Let’s put it like this if it helps. If Reyes is indeed not signed by the A.S.B. I am not going to be worried that now he is lost to the Mets via free agency. If the F.O. decides to wait till the end of season to negotiate fine and if not fine also. It’s just I would hope that their decisions are not based out of fear of not being able to sign him by some fictional deadline.
T, I hope I’m wrong when I say, Alderson missed an oportunity when he didn’t offer to extend for a Jeter comparable deal. with Reyes being 27, I’d want at least to lock him in until age 32 as he exits his prime. for years the most popiular feeling was Reyes was underperforming EXPECTATION LEVEL. My belief is that those expectations were falsely set at a level too advanvnced for a prePRIME player as it also is witrh Wright. How rediculous is it to assume a prePRIMER araly 20s ‘kid’ should be expected to be an “Alexander” donning the leadership mantle? I’ve suggested here multiple times, I believe there is a certain level of bias in the NY media against players who are not absolurly fluent in interview English. Hell, on all too many occasions, a Perz, a Reyes or a Beltran misspoke in an obvious linguisticly challenged “ewrong word” selection process. yet, these media jockeys don’t ask, “do u really mean to say that, because people will hear…(typically totally different interpretattion) These are the same supposed A-holes who criticized Sosa foe intelligently hiring an interpreter when appearing before Congress, wouldn’y any of us in a foreignh country appwaring officially in fron of their ruling legal body? even if we’d had 7 years of studies? What if it ewere China & we’d mastered Cantonese & they were asking for info in Mandarin. While we claim to speak “English” here perhaps Aussies, Kiwis, Brits & Canadians may challenge us. Aye? Even American English has it’s dialects, just imagine a debate between a Brooklynite, a Bostonian an Atlantan & a Cajun; & those morons castigate him for requiring a specific honest understanding of the questions he was preparing to lie to(lol)!
Is it any wonder why these same morons who likely are not fluent in Spanish choose to proclaim there is no leadership in a Hispanicly dominated clubhouse after the typically avoid interviewing the majority of those Hispanic players Reyes,Beltran,Delgado, K-ERod, Castrillo if any one of those had assumed a leadership role would thery not have spoken Spanish to motivate the majpority of his teammates? can Madden, Harper, et al comprehend or understand any of whast these players are saying to one another? All too often, these same incompetant touts are measuring the heads of every possible Anglo for that leadership crown be it LoDuca,Wagner,Bay, Wright,Francoeur next up is likely Davis or Thole
By this standard, it’s most likely more than likely because of thia appareny bias they “unnamed sources” out of Flushing aretht day’s batboy.
I’m definitely in favor of extending Reyes but I’m sure that the OB% is troubling to Sandy and knowing he has many many spots to fill doesn’t want to close off any options and how can you blame him? Reyes was never properly developed to control the strike zone when he was in our system. That can’t really be bred into a player once he reaches the Majors. It’s just too late.
Reyes is a good SS and can be a great one. He can also set your offense in motion and make everything behind him work a lot more efficiently but as for properly evaluating him? That’s difficult right now. His game was spotty last year even to the point of looking disinterested at times.
Many leg injuries and even a brief illness scare cost him having full seasons the last two years. I’m still in favor of resigning him for 5 years but at how much? He is certainly going to get way more than anyone is thinking right now. His value after a full 2011 typical and highly motivated Jose Reyes is going to be sky high. Just being realistic.
Not sure where the language thing came from but the NY Media would love to talk to anyone that will give them some time. What do you think they purposely avoid Spanish speaking players? Give me a break ’62. Delgado told them not to bother, let the White Boys handle that unenviable task so we can get out of the locker room as quickly as possible without having to answer any pain in the ass questions.
Delgado should have been front and center during the last months of Willie’s tenure but he was no where to be found. He was certainly part of the story. Most likely the biggest part along with Bernazard. Think the media wouldn’t have LOVED to have gotten some insight from Delgado on the situation?
Wagner was right. F****n shocker that no one but him and Wright would take any questions.
There was Hispanic leadership in the dugout but it wasn’t team oriented leadership. It was more along the lines of poisining the well leadership.
The last time we had team oriented leadership on the Mets was when Cliff Floyd was here. He provided LOTS of team oriented leadership in good times AND bad.
Anyone who ever played on a team above say freshman football knows perfectly well that no one, not even coaches or anyone else annoites a leader anyway.
When people are looking for racism, subtle or overt, it can always be found even when it doesn’t exist at all and while everyone should be on the lookout for it in order to stamp it out before it can take root one does need to calibrate their racism detector to avoid getting false positives and thereby running the risk of making thing worse by making false accusations.
On a team of 25 players anyone the players look up to and listen to can be the leader. There can be more than one and they can all take turns. The Media has nothing to do with it and they would be more than happy to talk to anyone in order to have something to write about.
I’m sure that Proffessor Reyes would agree.
Well OBP may worry Sandy but OBP should only be important in regards to low RS. And I don’t believe it is in Reyes case. I really think the injuries are what are holding an extention up.
If the whole premise behind getting High OBP is because it leads to more scoring then Reyes’ OBP really should not matter in this case!
Reyes with all of his injuries was our second leading Run scorer behind (by 4 RS) Wright who played pretty much the whole season.
Reyes (.321 OBP, .428 SLG) scored 83 times in 133 games. .6 RPG (runs per game)
Wright (.354 OBP, .503 SLG) scored 87 times in 157 games. .5 RPG (Higher OBP, Higher SLG, less RPG)
So despite the counting stat being one way Reyes actually scored more often in his opportunities than Wright did!
The league leader in RS was Pujols (.414 OBP, .596 SLG) he scored 115 times in 159 games. .72 RPG and with that .596 SLG you can see why he got that extra 10th of a run per game.
Reyes in his best three (Healthy) years here he had.
2006 153 G, .354 OBP, .487 SLG, 122 RS .79 RPG (Almost .8)
2007 160 G, .354 OBP, .421 SLG, 119 RS .74 RPG
2008 159 G, .358 OBP, .475 SLG, 113 RS .71 RPG
Regardless of what you believe regarding OBP Reyes would appear to have the desired result even without a .4+ OBP.
If High OBP is desired because your goal is scoring more runs then someone who scores a lot has already met your goal regardless of what his OBP was!
You don’t throw out the baby with the bathwater here!
The baby in the High OBP philosophy is the RS. The OBP is the bath water.
No I believe that Sandy’s hesitance is based on many other considerations and most of them involve the rest of the team not Reyes!
The only ones that are directly related to Reyes is injuries and Money. If Reyes doesn’t get his games in then that .7 RPG is useless and not worth the money Reyes will command.
And IMO neither are really the reason to wait on Reyes. Put it this way, even if Reyes plays every game the risk he will get hurt and miss time again is probable! He’s not getting any younger and he is not going to turn into ironman overnight!
As for the Money it really isn’t a problem simply because no matter what path you take, extention or FA, your going to pay roughly the same money! Maybe a little more in FA.
No the real holdup on Reyes’s re-signing is the rest of the team. If the rest of the team is not worth keeping then Reyes is probably the biggest trade chip we have. He will command more prospects (and better ones) than Beltran would and even if you think you want to keep him, trading him at the deadline for prospects and then pursuing him in FA is still a possibility! You will spend roughly the same amount to resign him but get prospects as a bonus for the extra money spent.
SO by not extending him you leave your options open.
1 – You can extend him at any time next season
2 – You can trade him without any cash considerations getting in the way
3 – You can trade him for a farm and then go after him at the end of the year unless whoever you trade him to extends him which is prob not going to happen until after the season and Reyes will likely test the FA waters before doing so.
4 – If the rest of the team shows it is a competitive one not requiring a complete tear down you can Extend Reyes and lock him up for the prime of his career!
There should be no rush to extend Reyes at this point. Since the unknowns are many here the best possible course of action is to leave your options open and proceed cautiously.
And Extention or resigning is going to be a pretty big and LONG TERM investment. If the rest of the team sucks it might not be worth investing that kind of money on Talent that will be wasted by the rest of the team.
I personally like the trade and re-sign scenario.
I like to have my cake and eat it too! lol
But that poses the risk you may not be able to resign him.
Unless you tell his agent that you intend to resign him just before the trade. Not even sure that is allowed though. LOL
DO you get paid by the word?
I think there is a very simple concept involved with Reyes and his OBP (that really applies to every player, like Francouer).
If Jose could convert some of the times he gets himself out (swinging at bad balls for weak opp ups say) into getting on base (aka making less outs), he will score even more often. His RS are largely a result of the quality of the hitters behind him (at least the % of tiems he scores per time on base).
so, if the same guys are hitting behind him, logically if Jose is on base more, he will get driven in more and score more runs. which last I checked, was the goal of the offense, to score runs.
and conceptually, a higher OBP usually means more walks, which means more selective hiting (swinging at better pitches) and getting into favorable counts. And guess what? If you are hitting ahead in the count, you will normally get better pitches to hit and be more productive (more hits, not just more walks).
Even bayonne should support the idea that if hitters can routinely be hitting with a 3-1 count instead of a 1-2 count, they will get more hits (higher BA), more RBIs, etc.
I have to say a lot because guys like you miss the point!
If the guy already scores as much as guys with High OBP then his OBP is not a reason to NOT sign him!
You sign him right now and try to get his OBP up after he is signed!
But if the guy scores as many as a High OBP player does then obviously his OBP isn’t the problem just something he could improve!
What is the most important part of the High OBP philosophy the OBP or the RS you expect from High OBP?
But you did get the rest of it right.
Sure if the guys behind him drive him in then if it turns out those players are not very good then it doesn’t matter WHAT his OBP is.
If THEY suck there is no reason to keep Reyes!
Let’s use a hypothetical here. Let’s say the hitters behind a player (any player, let’s use Mr. Miyagi here because the rule is universal and applies to EVERYONE)…..let’s say the hitter behind Mr. Miyagi drive him in 30% of the time he reaches base. If he reaches base 100 times, he’ll score 30 runs. If he reaches base 150 times, he’ll score 45 runs. If he reaches base 200 times, he’ll score 60 runs. If he reaches base 250 times, he’ll score 75 runs. Are you seeing a pattern? The more Mr. Miyagi waxes on, the more the other hitters will wax him off. (Note: I laughed for 20 minutes and debated rephrasing, but decided against it).
Point is, reach base more, score more runs. Sure, if the hitters behind Miyagi were better hitters and drove him in 40% of the time, he’d score more runs, too, but Miyagi can’t worry about other players. He can only worry about himself and about getting on base. If an entire team reached base 38% of the time over the course of a season, they will score more runs than the team that reaches base 34% of the time, about 99% of the time.
42 of the 115 runs Pujols scored were him driving HIMSELF in from home plate. Reyes isn’t that type of hitter (who is?) Even Wright, 29 of 77 were done by himself from home plate.
As a leadoff hitter Reyes 634 RS and 74 HR’s career is more dependent on getting OB in order to score his runs. Obviously if no one behind him is capable of bringing him in he’s not going to score a lot of runs but that would be a good reason to replace the guys behind him, not to encourage him to walk at a below league avg rate.
I finally see your POV.
if you have a great player, but crap hitting after him, keep the crap and get rid of the great player.
The problem with your hypothetical is this.
How do you know that the reason the number is only 30% is because Miyagi wasn’t on base and not because the guy after him FAILED 70% of the time to drive him in when he DID have the opportunity?
Why not just get someone who can drive Miyagi in 50% of the time instead?
Then if Miyagi scored 30 times in 100 times it would increase to 50 times with the new guy after him! 150 would increase to 75. 250 times would increase to 125 runs!
You forget the fatal flaw in your logic. Miyagi being on base does not increase the following batters chances of getting a hit (or even OB) which is 100% more important than what Miyagi did in driving Miyagi in! And if you improve that followon player you will not only get increased RS from Miyagi when he gets on but increase the RS in times when he does not! Because you improved the IMPORTANT player in the proccess of scoring Miyagi!
Just because Miyagi gets on does not mean that the guy after him is going to drive him in more. Not when he already squanders 70% of his chances!
Unless you can show how Miyagi being on a base improves the guys ability to hit.
As for your reach base more, score more runs I will challenge you again and again you will retreat…
PROVE IT!
Show me a ranking that shows the guys with the highest OBP ALWAYS score more runs than a team with lower OBP.
And then I will ask you to explain the Blue Jays last year!
TAG – Exactly Right! Thats why I noted the SLG of Pujols is what gave him that extra 10th of a point in the comparison.
Always – I presume you were referring to Xtreem and I would agree!
IMO Mr Miyagi got on plenty but the guy after failed 70% of the time. That means for every 100 opportunities he will not score the run 70 times.
If he wastes that many opportunities then he is less likely to increase his percentage with more of them. More than likely the percentage will just go down because he isn’t capable of driving him in more and it would be better to get a guy who wastes fewer opportunities to bring Miyagi in!
I have to admit, you are relentless.
Look, if you can get better hitters to follow Myagi, get them. makes the team better. But that has nothing to do with improving myagi.
essentially what you are saying is that myagi is good enough, What Agee is saying is that if he was better, the team will score more runs.
up his OBP, and the team scores more runs with the same guys behind him, or with new guys. very simple concept.
The disconnect seems to be you are fixated on either/or. yes, better hitters will score more runs. So will better OB guys. Ideally, players do both.
real names. If the mets get pujols and hit him 2nd behind Jose (an exercise here, remember), sure they will score more runs than having castillo there. A given.
But, if Jose becomes more selective and can convert some of his outs to getting on (going from say .255 to .285), then the RS will go up EVEN MORE. Pujols will be the same hitter (and maybe better, having Jose on more in front of him), so he will get more RBIs just from having mroe opportunities.
conversely, if he is hitting behind a couple of lousy OBP guys, his RBIs will go down, just from fewer opportunities.
can you possibly argue about any of this?
Or are you simply saying you don’t care, just get better hitters (almost all of which have higher OBP BTW), and score more runs that way?
Always I will give you the same chance I gave Xtreem.
PROVE Miyagi getting on base more will make the guy after him DRIVE HIM IN!
Prove Higher OBP leads to higher scoring!
Go ahead it is a straight up challenge!
But teams with lesser OBP score more runs that high OBP teams do! This is a FACT!
Toronto Blue Jays last two years!
Explain how they score more runs than teams with a higher OBP than them!
Then you will be able to claim higher OBP is a FACT of higher RS.
I don’t know where to find it, but others have posted studies showing the long term correlation to higher OBP leading to more RS.
and there are of course outliers (exceptions to every rule). But if you want an example on the other side, look at the late-90′s yankees. Not actually any big HR hitters, but a ton of take pitches, high OBP hitters that just wore out pitching staffs and scored a bunch of runs.
Always, the “study” is a quick look at any stats website. MLB.com, ESPN.com, baseball-reference.com, fangraphs.com, anything at all.
Then sort the teams in each league by OBP and note their rank. Then sort them by runs scored and note their rank. Pretty uncanny, huh? A very vast majority of the teams don’t differ by more than two places on the list.
Sure, slugging is one of the outliers. I’ve noted myself that after OBP, slugging is the next best factor of run scoring. Metsie uses the Blue Jays to “prove” I’m wrong, but look where they place in slugging percentage.
However, note how often it happens. A team with a terrible OBP scoring lots of runs or a team with a high OBP not scoring many. You can count on one hand those occurrences each year in BOTH leagues.
It’s beyond a shadow of a doubt how true the theory is. The higher the team OBP, the more RBIs and runs they will tally.
Metsie I was reading where you mentioned about the Blue Jays OBP & RUNs asking for an explanation and while I can’t offer you one I do have to say that like all statistics there are always stats that dont always follow the rules as is the point you was making regarding why the Jays low obp rankings have them still with more runs scored than teams with higher obp.
In general the teams with higher obp will usually rank near the the same in runs scored just looking at the last 2 years in the AL.
2010 AL Rankings
Team Run/Obp
NYY 1st – 1st
BOS 2nd – 3rd
TBR 3rd – 6th
TEX 4th – 4th
MIN 5th – 2nd
TOR 6th – 12th
CHW 7th – 7th
DET 8th – 5th
LAA 9th – 13th
KCR 10th – 8th
OAK 11th – 9th
CLE 12th – 10th
BAL 13th – 11th
SEA 14th – 14th
2010 AL Runs: baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2010-standard-batting.shtml#teams_standard_batting::7
2010 AL Obp: baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2010-standard-batting.shtml#teams_standard_batting::18
_________________________________
2009 AL Rankings
Team Run/Obp
NYY 1st – 1st
LAA 2nd – 3rd
BOS 3rd – 2nd
MIN 4th – 4th
TBR 5th – 5th
TOR 6th – 7th
TEX 7th – 12th
CLE 8th – 6th
OAK 9th – 11th
DET 10th – 9th
BAL 11th – 8th
CHW 12th – 10th
KCR 13th – 13th
SEA14th – 14th
2009 AL Runs: baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2009-standard-batting.shtml#teams_standard_batting::7
2009 AL Obp: baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2009-standard-batting.shtml#teams_standard_batting::18
Metsie, I don’t know that X and I come from it the same way. I don’t “correlate” team OB to runs scored. I “correlate” line up composition to runs scored.
For instance, Vladimir Guerrero has a very low walk rate (K rate too) Does he have a place in my ideal line up. You bet your ass he does (or did)
Using him and for the sake of familiarity I’ll give you my idea of a well conceived line up using him and 7 former Mets and the stat that most reveals why I chose that player and put him in that spot in the order. I’m also not picking any poor defensive players because I hate looking at them.
Dykstra .375 OB
Fonzie .284/357/425
Hernandez .296/384/436
Guerrero .320/383/563
Piazza .308/377/545
Beltran .282/359/494
Wright .305/383/515
Reyes .286/335/434
Besides being a dream team (for Met fans anyway) Everyone has a HIGH OB but can hit, hit with power or both. A line up where no one feels that if they don’t do it, it’s not going to get done. Go ahead and take the freebie, pass the battan to the next guy because not only can he get it done, he’s gonna be able to get it done with one more guy OB than there was before.
That to me is the benefit of high OB throughout your line up. Whether it’s a by product of being a good hitter as you claim or the reason you are the best hitter you can be is irrelevant. High OB guys in front of my power hitters who in turn are high OB guys for the power hitter behind them.
you pretty much described the better teams using your example (such as the yankees).
of course you need power (slugging%) to drive runs in. But you need men on base for it to matter.
hey, I want players that get on base and hit for some power. One reason I hate having castillo, no matter what his OBP is. And no way do I think a team of slappys will be a great offensive team, even if they all have .380 OBPs.
but, if your top guys are getting on a lot, then your middle order guys will have lots of ducks on the pond to drive in. And it is huge if those mid-order hitters also have a high OBP, meaning that guys further down have opportunities too. Keep the line moving, wear out the pitchers.
Well whoever posted that Proof either fudged their numbers or manipulated the stats to try and get OBP as the leading indicator! Now this may or may not have been done on purpose and could be the result of simple oversight!
But I have showed the ranking realtionships showing RS,RBI and OBP. And OBP rank is wrong in predicting RS rank by a score of 21-6 when compared with RBI!
That RBI is the guy after Miyagi! HE drives in the runs!
The OBP is WAY WAY off and RBI is never off the top 10!
I will post my comparison again so you don’t have to go find your data if that is easier.
2010 team RS/RBI/OBP
Yankees 1/1/1
Boston 2/2/4 RBI better than OBP
Tampa 3/3/10 RBI better than OBP
Cincy 4/4/6 RBI better than OBP
Texas 5/7/5 OBP better than RBI
Minny 6/5/2 RBI better than OBP in fact High OBP failed to score more runs than teams with less! Epic Failof OBP factor!
Philly 7/8/13 RBI better than OBP
Rockies 8/6/7 OBP will get this one
Blue jays 9/9/26 RBI better than OBP
White Sox 10/12/11 OBP Closer
Lets look just at this year.
Yankees led in both so they tie in correctness.
Minny was #2 in OBP did they score more runs than Tampa (10th in OBP) Cincy (6th in OBP) or Texas (5th on OBP?)
If not then obviously higher OBP does NOT lead to higher scoring in every case and if it does not work in EVERY CASE than the statement HIGH OBP LEADS to MORE RUNS SCORED is a FALSEHOOD!
It is a LIE!
An INCORRECT assumption. Sure you can explain how it is supposed to work on paper but it does not work in the field!
2009 Same stuff!
Yanks 1/1/1 Same as this year! another push!
Angels 2/2/3 RBI better than OBP
red Sox 3/3/2 RBI better than OBP
Phillies 4/4/14 EPIC!
Twins 5/5/5 Equal
Rockies 6/8/7 OBP
Tampa 7/7/6 RBI better than OBP
Blue Jays (oh no!) 8/6/15 RBI better yet again
Brewers 9/9/8 RBI better than OBP
Rangers 10/10/24 RBI better than OBP
If what you say about High OBP were true why did the Philles who wer 14th in OBP make the top 10? Why did the Blue jays?
You can claim the logic of your theory but the RESULTS DO NOT MATCH!
If you say 1+1=2 then it had better not ever equal 4! if it does then your original equation was wrong!
2008 lets try it one more time maybe third time is the charm for OBP.
Texas 1/1/3 RBI better than OBP
Cubs 2/2/2 Both factor correct
Red Sox 3/3/1 RBI better than OBP
Twins 4/4/9 RBI better than OBP
Tigers 5/6/7 RBI better than OBP
White Sox 6/5/2 RBI better than OBP
Indians 7/7/11 RBI better than OBP
Phillies 8/8/15 RBI better than OBP
Mets (hey!) 9/10/8 Split
Yankees 10/9/6 RBI better than OBP
Why didn’t the Red sox lead the league in scoring? Higher OBP means higher RS doesn’t it?
Guess not!
So this PROOF and 30 YEARS OF RESEARCH obviously didn’t take into account the realities of the last three years. And if did and the proof used those examples of OBP not working as outliers but the rest was evidence enough then I now say that RBI correlates much more correctly and with less margin of error than that previusly posted proof!
And if that is the case My suggestion of improving the guy after Miyagi (the guy with the RBI) is better than worrying about how many times Miyagi gets on base! Get more than 30% of the 100 times Miyagi gets on. And once I do if I see someone who gets on more than Miyagi I might even entertain replacing him.
Truth is Reyes scores nearly as often as the guy who led the league in RS (How he did it doesn’t matter RS is RS) And if thats not good enough for you then you tell me how you can get a better player than a guy who could be the leader if someone behind him did better than 30% chance to drive him in!
TAG This should address some of what you said.
I will try and make a math compensation for you.
I will not count the RS of the HR. for both players and look at PA:RS ratio. Pujols has a higher OBP as well so lets see who gets drivin in more by getting on base.
reyes Reyes has a PA to RS By RBI ratio of 8.3 His OBP was .321
Pujols had a 9.0 and an OBP of .443
Why? Well mostly because some of that OB went out of the park with Pujols!
Also he WAS the guy charged with cleaning up the bases and probably didn’t have the guy after Miyagi to score him. Should Pujols need to increase his OBP too to make up for the lack of Hitting after him?
Opportunites are great but increasing the opportunity does not do as much as increasing the success rate of those opportunities.
This works for OBP as well as the ability to drive them in.
Should the leadoff guy try to get on more? Should he have to get on more than the next guy?
Going back to my original argument from the other Excuse for Moneyball being a book thread it is more important to have good hitters as a TEAM than it is to have a team full of guys who get on base one way or another. It is the Hitter that brings Miyagi in and it is the Hitter who increases the OBP while doing so.
The more guys you string together who can hit then EVERYONE’s OBP goes up and increases as a team!
Tamps Bay led the league in Walks (672). but their team OBP was .333 they had 1343 Hits, 769 RBI, 802 RS
Yankees were 2nd in BB (662), Had 57 more hits (859) 41 of those extra hits were HRs!
Thier OBP was .350. RBI were 823. RS is 859.
Is that Higher OBP because they took MORE walks than Tampa? Obviously not! It’s because they hit the ball pretty damn good and out of the park increasing both OBP, RBI (54+) and RS (57)
They got 100+ more Hits than Tampa
They hit 41 more HRs and 54 more RBI
Resulting in 57 more runs.
And did it by walking 10 fewer times!
Walking may be getting on a base but it is probably the worst way to do it other than a HBP of a K that went to the backstop!
The Yankees don’t RELY on the walk they rely on the BAT!
that is why they have such a high OBP each year because they don’t take walks when there is a guy on base and play for the OBP, They go for the hit and usually get it which increases the OBP AND everything that is supposed to make OBP so important!
30 Years of research was a QUICK LOOK!
No wonder when I did that and looked a little deeper than trying to make a point that is wrong and funny how OBP is terrible to match RS rank when compared to RBI!
Time to take another look my friend. 30 years of your life just went down the toilet!
Tell me how the Blue Jays made the top 10 in RS if OBP is so surely a run scoring machine?
Alwaysnextyear, Although you can hardly call it moneyball the players the Yankees have brought in since the mid 90′s all have the same basic profile.
They take a lot of walks. Same as the Red Sox. It’s just not being talked about or promoted in books and movies or anything else. Except in the clubhouse. It’s clearly the reason for identifying guys who will work in the structure of the lineup.
Look at the guys that they have brought in even in part time roles over the last 15 years and compare their walk rates with league averages. Every guy they bring in has at least a 10% walk rate. Boggs, Strawberry, Tino, O’neil. Knoblauch, Curtis, Rains, Fielder, Chili Davis, Ledee, Rivera, Leyritz, Canseco, Whitten, Giambi,Justice, Matsui, Damon, A-Rod, Texeira, Abreu, Swisher, Sheffield, Ventura, Granderson, Nick Johnson, Olerud, Hairston, Kearns. Every single one of them. Now maybe not everyone of these guys walked 10% of the time their entire career but they sure as hell did when they were with the Yankees. They did or they got shipped out. It was also bred into Bernie, Jeter, Posada, Spenser and Gardniner. If you want to play here you better get a walk once every 10 times. Obviously they have to do more than walk but still by targeting ONLY players that walk what do you think they’re saying? Coincidence? I don’t think so.
What Metsie fails to understand is that RBI are not a cause of anything, they are the same result as runs scored. RBI doesn’t CAUSE a run to score. The base hit or deep fly ball or groundout or bases loaded walk, etc. is the cause. The result is the run scoring and the batter getting credit for an RBI. The single Bay hit means nothing to scoring runs if Wright hadn’t doubled before him. If Wright wasn’t on base, the run doesn’t score. Or if Wright gets held at third or thrown out at home and the run doesn’t score, Bay doesn’t get an RBI. Three instances where the same single doesn’t credit Bay with an RBI unless Wright SCORES THE RUN first.
Of course, if Wright doubles and Bay doesn’t drive him in, the run doesn’t score, either. That’s a perfectly valid argument. But then it gives Ike the chance to drive in a run, then the next guy. If no one drives him in at all, the worst it does is negatively affect the opposing pitcher.
But 1 RBI can win the World Series. You guys over analyze yourself into a corner.
I remember the Mets once leaving 16 men on base and scoring one run. Give me the guy who drives in the runs over the guy that gets on base. Anybody can get on base but it takes more talent to drive them in.
Let’s not forget the Franceour’s and Batista’s of the world who have seasons of 100+ RBI despite being two of the worst hitters ever to play the game.
Talent, indeed……
Just show up 150 games, hit in the middle of a lineup with high OBP guys in front of you and you’ll fall kicking and screaming into 100 RBIs.
Naturally you always want your table setters to have high on base percentages WHEN YOU CAN, that’s as old as baseball itself. Life would be wonderful if it always worked out that way but unfortunately life isn’t always perfect so you have to be creative when building a lineup when your 1 & 2 hitters don’t have the highest OBP. Maybe one of them had great gap power – like a Jose Reyes, or just can make things happen with low OBP like a Mookie Wilson.
What you just said takes no thought at all. Of course you want your 1&2 hitters to get on base as much as possible. But the REAL GENIUS is what you are able to do with your lineup when you can’t have that. That’s the real genius.
The guys you mentioned had 100 RBIs in good years and for whatever reason you choose, now they can’t hit. But when they had the 100 RBI it was a good job. Horrible example.
That’s your argument? All of a sudden NOW they can’t hit? So they were good hitter before, when they drove in 100 runs, but NOW they can’t hit? And my example was horrible?
You talked about putting guys in the right situations when maybe you don’t have the luxury of good hitters, but that logic doesn’t apply to Frenchy and Batista because you don’t want it to? They weren’t put in good situations, they were good hitters before. Now they forgot how. Right, I got it.
And my example is horrible?
Listen pal, at least Metsie has some semblance of an argument. You have no arguments. All you do is tell me sabermetrics is garbage, and your defense is the garbage you spew above. Give it a rest. Take a nap.
“The single Bay hit means nothing to scoring runs if Wright hadn’t doubled before him. If Wright wasn’t on base, the run doesn’t score.”
And if Bay didn’t get the hit Wright didn’t score either!
He’s still on base doing nothing and contributing nothing to the score.
Twist it all you want but if no one gets the rbi HIT then Wright doesn’t score!
That makes the hit more important than the BASE! Especially since a player can score an RBI hit without Wright!
You can run from it but again you fail to grasp the simple concept that a guy on base does not CAUSE HIMSELF to score!
He merely put himself into a position where someone else could make it happen! And that same guy didn’t need Wright to score a run because he can do it without him by hitting a HR!
But Metsie, How could RBI NOT correlate most closely to runs scored? 98% of the time one cannot occur without the other? The other 2% of the time or so it is always because no RBI was given. So I’ll make a wild guess. I’ll bet that there are always more runs scored than there are RBI’s.
I’ll also bet you I can come up with a stat that more closely correlates to runs scored than RBI.
Earned Runs + Unearned Runs.
That correlates 100% of the time and tells us just as much as RBI/RS vs. OBP/RS.
RBI/ RS is like paint on a roller and then onto the wall. 98% of what goes on the roller, then goes onto the wall.
I believe your true point is that you cannot look first and foremost to amass a bunch of guys who cannot hit and expect to win any games. Only a fool would disagree but you also need to put as many base runners as possible in front of your hitters and especially as many base runners as possible in front of your home run hitters.
They all have to be able to hit, but if they can all draw walks in 10% of their AB’s your gonna have 10% (or so) more runs since they should score on the average as much as any one who hits a single does as long as they all do their part. This is the basic framework the Yankees have been working under for 15 years now only their not making a big deal about it.
Sometimes guys have very good years and drive in 100 RBIs, doesn’t mean they do it all the time. Maybe a guy can hit 320 one year, but never hit more than 280 before. Why do I have to tell you this when you can’t think of these things yourself.
That’s what I was saying. Frenchy (since he’s the example you people always use) had a couple of seasons where he drove in 100 runs and hasn’t done it since. I don’t know if he’ll do it again, maybe or maybe not. But he’s not a good hitter anymore.
To extreem imbecile,
No,
Sometimes guys have very good years and drive in 100 RBIs, doesn’t mean they do it all the time. Maybe a guy can hit 320 one year, but never hit more than 280 before. Why do I have to tell you this when you can’t think of these things yourself.
That’s what I was saying. Frenchy (since he’s the example you people always use) had a couple of seasons where he drove in 100 runs and hasn’t done it since. I don’t know if he’ll do it again, maybe or maybe not. But he’s not a good hitter anymore.
Thats the point Tag! lol
How could OBP actually correlate since they aren’t related in any way?
What is an RBI?
It is an OB sometimes
it is a hit sometimes
It is a walk sometimes
it is an out sometimes
It is always a run scorer!
My purpose was to show an example of a stat that is a much better indicator than OBP.
By successfully doing so I proved OBP was not the BEST indicator! The reason RBI was used was because that was just the FIRST stat I looked at.
I am sure there are many others which are an even better indicator but I chose to show one in the same BATTING category since the OBP was being used to judge that quality!
You are correct that any stat that has something to do with scoring runs will be a better indicator than OBP.
Which is why there are much better stats to look for to increase your RS BEFORE you even take a gander at the OBP!
Find those numbers and then when you got two or three guys who look the same take a look at whoever has the higher OBP and pick him!
OBP is not the most IMPORTANT stat because it is not really related. Get the guy who drives in those runs and then he can be the guy you drive in with someone else later in the inning.
You don’t need high OBP to get that conga line going. And if you get good hitters not only will you get the OBP but you will get the RBI as well!
How Many RBI is a very poor way to judge a hitter. Everyone who has ever played baseball knows when a teammate is stranding guys left and right. The percentage of guys driven in is a far better indicator of who is doing their job with men on.
When you come up and the basses are empty your job is to get on. When you come up with men on your job is to get them in.
If one guy gets 700 opportunities and knocks in 100 that’s not a good year. Everyone who’s ever played knows that.
It’s the guy who drives in the highest percentage (and highest leverage) runs that has the best year.
Francouer’s 100 RBI years were hollow because hitting behind so many guys with such great OB%’s would have got an average RBI producer 145 RBI. Look at all the base runners Francouer had on and he never took a walk so he was stranding loads of guys every game.
A couple Braves had avg league OB%. 8 or 9 of them had well above league avg OB which meant extra opportunities for Francouer. The only player that didn’t have those extra opportunities were the ones batting behind Francouer. His was the OB% below league avg.
T agee, in 2006, Francoeur’s career year, he ranked 69th (!) in OBI%, despite ranking 20th in runners on base. A few names who ranked ahead of him. Craig Monroe, Dave Roberts, Kevin Mench, Kenji Johjima, Mike Jacobs, Ramon Hernandez and Sean Casey. There’s a lot more “studs” he ranked behind, but you get the picture.
Agee, come on,
if you’re a middle of the order hitter, RBI is VERY important. I know if I’m batting 4th in a lineup one of the things I’m going to judge myself by is RBI. Why because that’s my job – drive in runs. My OBP is meaningless if i’m not driving runs in.
Alright Metsie, You got us. Now go out there and get us some guys that get OB and some guys that knock ‘em in.
Yeah but Vinny, YOUR OB is very important to the two guys behind you. Who are they going to knock in if your not getting on.
I’ve had a million guys I’ve played ball with through the years say the same thing to me. “but I’m driving in the runs” and I show them that even the guy who’s not that good a hitter that I have batting 9th (or 10th or even 11th with the EH) is driving in a higher percentage of HIS RBI opportunities then you are. Why is that? Because your swinging when you should be taking that ball. We don’t come out here so you can get RBI’s. We come out here so we can win the game, make the playoffs, win the league.
Everyone likes to accumulate their stats. Couple guys on, I want to get them in but it has to be done in a team context.
That’s why the Yankees won so many games in the mid to late 90′s. One guy after the other could hit and could walk if he didn’t get a pitch. One right after the other. Pick your poisin. Knoblauch, Jeter, O’Neil, Bernie, Tino, Posada, Straw/Rains/Fielder, Brosius. Everyone. They all hit and they all walked. No one had to go out of their zone to get a run in. We haven’t been burdened with a power house line up like that in years, probably 25 years. but that’s something the Yankees look for and if plate dicipline is lacking their not interested because everything is done in the context of a team line up. Wright hasn’t had that luxury the last couple of years. He has no one to pass the batan too if he doesn’t get his pitch. Our line up is completely disjointed, wild hackers, 1-2-3- innings one right after the other. No AB is connected to any other AB.
But again Vinny if your hitting 4th and you go outside your zone to drive in a run and fail then who’s going to drive you in?
agee,
The number 4 hitter’s job is to drive in runs. That’s it! That’s his job. Don’t overthink. You get too way ahead of youself.
But RBI’s is what you want from a 4 hitter not OBP.
Now if you want to talk about different kinds of #4 hitters that’s another story. If you’re #4 hitter is a .300 hitter then don’t worry about his OBP because it’s probably good anyway – just worry about his RBI’s. That’s how you win games.
and yes WINS is what’s it’s all about.
Bayonne, I don’t worry too much about OB with #4 or really even #5. I follow them up if they fail with a pure hitter to knock in the runs with a single but then I do start to worry about getting on cause I want to clear the bottom of the order.
I do start to worry when #4 or #5 start not getting x base hits because they want to hack away. You cannot make a pitcher throw you a strike but you can let him get away with it by swinging at them.
You can’t tell me that you haven’t had guys who would rather swing at s**t then take the walk in that situation and what do you tell them?
I know what you tell them. You tell them to take the freebie and next time you’ll get your pitch, don’t get yourself out. Take your base this guy’s not going to want to walk two guys in a row so get ready to score from 1st.
Metsie, I think your right about the general uncertainty of the team, along with injury and cost considerations are what is keeping Reyes from being approached about an extension. Perfectly understandable considering the situation.
Trade and re-sign would be the best possible scenario but very unlikely in my opinion, but I like the thought and the optimism.
Reyes is not a terrible bad ball hitter but I just don’t see how anyone wouldn’t think he would be a more productive hitter, not to mention a more productive leadoff hitter, if he didn’t swing outside the strike zone so much. I believe it was from losing almost a whole season, and then losing ST, but his pitch recognition collapsed at times last year. Maybe it was just a product of lost playing time, being in a line up with so many guys who didn’t attempt to work the count.
Everyone seemed to swing outside the strike zone way too much, (the Francouer effect?) could selfishness in the line up effect other players resolve? Of course it can.
All 3 years you cited as Reyes’ best included above average BB rates while his other years did not. Those 3 years together produced an average BA of .290 OB of .355 and a SLG of .460 as a young and less physically mature player. Last year is only one year (not even and with no ST either) but with his walk rate down, his BA and SLG followed.
You can say this about all players but in regard to Reyes, if he took more balls, even subtracting some of the bad ball hits, he would get more hits on good balls and do more with them, especially now that he is entering his peak strength age and being OB an extra 80 times a year couldn’t fail to score even more runs then he presently does. One walk every other game would make the pitcher come in more frequently and when they did…..
I posted some numbers yesterday, but if you look at Reyes after May 23rd (basically carving out his 1st 40 games), from there through the end of the year (93 games for him) he hit 11 HRs and had a higher than average slugging % (.485ish IIRC, but more than that .460). Oh, and ~.345 OBP, so very close to his normal .355 from the “good” years.
I know you can’t cherry pick, but I did this to account for the fact that he had missed about a full year, and came back with next to no strping training, and frankly looked like it for a while.
Next year, I think it’s fair to look at him when he was finally in midseason form after missing the previous year and ST. It does give you hope that it was more a regression due to missing so much time and that his pitch recognition skills needed a little more time for reinforcement.
I hope against hope that his 2009 injury didn’t cause us to lose the best SS we have ever had.
Metsie, In his 3 best years he was 3rd in the Majors in runs scored. Last year he was 58th with over 600 PA’s. Now I’ll be the first to agree with you that the absence of guys like Delgado and Beltran is a big part of that. No question. But with the prior demonstrated ability to score MORE runs than anyone else combined with an offense starving for runs AND the ability to put himself in scoring position (eliminating the need for one of the two hits needed to score him) and not being by enlarge the type of hitter who scores himself (Pujols 41 times scored “himself” out of 115 RS) and the fact that he will see better pitches and do MORE with them, to me, makes it imperative that he not swing outside of the strike zone 30% of the time like he did last year.
He’s a leadoff hitter, he should be scoring more runs than Pujols or Wright.
Now if he wants to be just a good hit, good glove SS who can hit anywhere in the line up and can do a bunch of different things that’s alright too but if he wants to put his foot on the accelerator and drive the car he cannot continue to swing outside the strike zone 30% of the time like he did last year. It hurts his BA, OBP, RS AND SLG.
Jose should be one of the last guys you want to walk and yet since he’s gotten here has seen less and less strikes. Why? Cause he’s not MAKING them throw strikes. Take the freebie, come back up and get better pitches to hit or take the freebie again. They’ll learn pretty quick why they don’t want to put him on for free and when they stop putting him on for free they’ll also remember why they don’t want to throw him a strike.
Tag there is no question that reyes could put up better numbers if he had some better dicipline at the plate but the entire team had bad plate dicipline last year and I believe it was because they were coached by a guy who was known for bad plate dicipline. What made HoJo a good hitter was not his selectivity, he was a free swinger but he did fight with two strikes on him and that carried him. If they do just THAT with Reyes then his OBP would go up not to mention is BA and just about everything else.
Reyes gets a lot of hits using his legs. He probably has more infield hits than anyone I know, and from the left side he can even bunt for a basehit and beat it out.
That said is there room for improvement there? Of Course!
But the fact that he does score as often as the league leaders makes his OBP a little less important since he scores due to other reasons. Could we get more? Sure but the fact that you get what High OBP is supposedly going to get you already means it is not that important!
It in fact is reason to SIGN him and hope to get that extra bit of RS you think more OBP is going to bring you!
Just because a philosophy says if this happens this will be the result, you don’t ignore the fact that the result of a player is exactly what your shooting for simply because the thing you think causes that result is not there!
If you want flowers that smells good and you believe Red flowers give you the best chance to get good smelling flowers you don’t throw away the good smelling flower simply because it doesn’t fit your theory on smelling good!
A rose by any other name so to speak!
Reyes scores those runs and at pretty much the same high level as anyone in the league.
Last year was a bad year all around, some can be blamed on Reyes, Some can be blamed on the Guys batting after Miyagi!
This is why Sandy is in his holding pattern. If the guys after Miyagi are not hitting and driving in runs then Reyes even with a high OBP will be stranded more often than not and we might as well trade him so the next Miyagi we find isn’t stuck in the wax booth of the car wash and get all washed up!
Sorry, Greg, but I already mentioned Carpenter.
http://metsmerizedonline.com/2010/12/can-someone-please-define-patience.html
Cool…and you’re right I’d consider him under the right circumstances.
1 year with club option or a 2 year pact at the most.
He’s 2 years older than Halladay!!!
Adam Wainwright currently may be the best bargin in baseball.
4 years/$15M (2008-11), plus 2012, 2013 club options
2011 @$6.5M, 2012@$9M club option, 2013 @$12M club option.
You’re right about Wainwright. He’s my odds on favorite to win the Cy Young next year.
I bet ubaldo is up there
Sure is. Wouldn’t be surprised if Ubaldo or Josh Johnson won, either.
Greg, I have to wonder exactly how many live abs of Reyes & Wright have actually been experienced by the entire Troika(Alderson,Ricchardi,Di
Podesta). Most likely Alderson is stalling long enough to get a GOOD FIRSTHAND feel for both of them, especially Reyes who’s the more immediate issue.
Few ever take into consideration the “lost” familiarization period regime changes take in MLB, esp if new one is entirely from “outside” the organization & in this case a new GM who was not involved with a specific franchise & close to the ONFIELD ACTION IN 2010. If I were to guess at what Alderson’s choice would be for viewing from the DR, I’d bet he would have focused on either Padres or A’s games being played by talent he had a hand in & with which he had a vested interest or failing that, more likely games featuring postseason contenders. I doubt he channel surfed for Mets’ games. So, he’s basicly armed with his stats pages & little firsthand knowlewdge, as an astute baseball man he’s going to insist on more before making irrevocable decisions on a CORE contributor..
Cmmon Sense should dictate this is S.O.P. for a competant exec. ONLY Collins(imagine if it had been another total outsider?) would have any recent firsthand references. Riccardi was an AL ONLY guy who paid people(scouts) to evaluate NL talent for him. DiPodesta on the West Coast as unfamiliar with our guys as we would be with a Dodger,Padre or Giant who’s never played elsewhere.
THINK ABOUT IT the press’ ill omens are as much to incite consternation & add readership as any”knowlewdgable” reference. The ver present “more to fillow” keeps them selling cage liners.
Forget Chris Carpenter he’s 35…dam.
well, I agree with NJ that Beltran and Santana are not part of any future core (actually, the core was usually considered to be the position players anyway).
So assuming Reyes is extended (a huge assumption IMO), then basically your core for the next 4-5 years of runs at the WS is Wright, Reyes, Davis and Bay. 2 guys just hitting their prime, 1 guy ramping up toward it, and 1 guy trying to hold onto it a little longer. Actually a good mix of prime time young vets, elder statesman but still productive, and young gun. Somewhat reminiscent of the 2006-2007 teams.
the key would be adding a couple more good to very good players. Some combination of Pagan, Thole being good, 1 of the 2B guys sticking, and the right FA signing, and you could have a team that is (position player wise at least) primed to be competitive every year for an extended period, and somewhat self sustaining (that is, not entirely young or old, but a nice mix and a steady replenishment).
The position side should be fine for the foreseeable future, playoff success is going to come down to finding enough pitching, and IMO that is where the FA $ will go the next couple of years.
However, I see the Mets nowadays more reminiscent of 1967 then 1979.
So, you’re saying you are willing to give Sandy and Terry this entire year, the next offseason, and 2012 before expecting results, even if they win fewer games next year than they did this year?
I know this isn’t what you’re trying to say, but it’s EXACTLY what you’re saying.
The Mets weren’t “rebuilding” but it took more than a year to become a contender, and the moves that the new regime made during their first year in power didn’t immediately show results.
And doing something differently this year than they did in 2006 isn’t “all of a sudden,” it’s “a half decade later.” And hoping our core all stays healthy and productive all year without a plan B is what we’ve been doing….for a half a decade.
It’s bad that your article is a perfect argument for…what you’re trying to say in your article.
The main difference between now and 67 is in the Pitching…
They had Seaver and Ryan to look forward to.
We have Mejia and who? Gee?
Not quite the same.
Xtreem [Off Topic]
Xtreem I’d like to ask you 3 questions if I may.
1. Are you or would you consider yourself a fan of sabermetrics?
2. If you do you also consider yourself a Mets fan.
3. This will sound silly but do you root for the Mets?
The reason I ask is that after a discussion with Mets Maniac he seems to believe that you don’t root for the Mets because he is of the opinion that if your a fan of sabermetrics you only root for stats.
Now to me that sounds absurd but before I jump the gun and presume something without asking 1st I wanted to see what your views on this are.
Xtreem read a book and he thought he has an epiphany…
15 years later he is looking for excuses as to why the Bible hasn’t showed him the promised land yet!
He blames the release of the book! lol
Yes, yes and yes. You’re right, completely absurd.
Thx for replying Xtreem.
Now Maniac you see why you shouldn’t paint everyone with one broad brush?
Xtreem just stated for the record that you are wrong to assume that he doesn’t root for the Mets.
I hope you take this as a sign not to stereotype people.
Mr. NJ, he said I don’t root for the Mets? Where? And why to you and not me?
His claim when I told him what you said is that I took it out of context. I don’t buy it.
For the record he didn’t say your name but rather he was referring to “saber people”.
That is why i asked you 1st if you considered yourself a saber person.
It was said in the shoutbox so it is no longer there but I have the screenshot since I have had him say later that I misinterpreted him in the past.
The focus of the discussion was that I said it was unfair if just because say James K said something that it then meant all saber people felt the same.
Thanks.
MNJ I’m going to answer you here since that thread is a mess.
Yes you are correct there are always outliers to any theory even My RBI comparison.
But it does show that OBP isn’t even the best at it in the last three years.
Granted if the outliers can be dismissed as inconsequential and the frequency is still close enough to claim as a fact, Is not the presence of a stat that has FEWER outliers just as much if not more a FACT and therefore the original evidence weighted with much less correctness?
X and I have two thoughts that are contending. One is his dataset’s relational validity and Two the causality of the RS.
On the topic of relational validity I have proved that RBI does what he claims OBP does with a greater degree of accuracy. Both have outliers which means that NEITHER is a PERFECT stat for judging RS which is not a claim I have ever made about RBI. X however claims OBP is the be all and end all. based on his backwards causality of RS. He assumes the base runner is needed, I have shown one is not needed to CAUSE an RS. the OB is consequential to what the batter did.
The Yankees walked just as much as Tampa did last year so why did the Yankees score and get on base maore? Because they hit the damn ball and they hit it over the fence!
I would suggest the only OB that is actually important is the OB that scores!
If walking more to get OB is not enough to drive in more runs then how good is the OB at all in RS? That shows the OBP can be inflated by actions that do not score runs at all and therefore if you can not guarantee that a percentage of OBP will score ANY runs then how the hell can you say making it higher will score more than you did already?
As I said long ago and was ignored by X, If I walk 5 miles and then go 10 what was the important factor in me going 10> the first 5 or the last? Couldn’t go the last 5 without first doing the first. But doing the first 5 didn’t force me to or mean without question I would go that final 5!
And if it can’t GUARANTEE it then there is no reasonable reason to believe that raising your OBP will raise the amount of runs you score!
And that is the case here.
Raising OBP does not guarantee you score more runs and since it fails in that guarantee it would be dumb to invest in something that has no promise to it’s investment.
But it is a given that if you get more Hits and RBI not only will the RS increase but the OBP will follow!
The Yankees lead the league in OBP because they hit! They hit because they don’t look much at the OBP they look at the stats that score runs! And while they are scoring runs they get all those bases Xtreem wants to see at the end of the day!
They not only make the 10 mile walk home they get to say hey and I walked 5 miles TWICE!
Anyways thanks for replying I will have to sit down for a day or two and try to crunch some numbers more accurately to try for myself better see if I can validate more accurately some of you assertions.
On the surface I can what you are saying but i’d like to dig bit further.
In any event I’ll keep reading the comments amongst you and the others and see how the discussion continues.
I will bet you (and anyone) any amount of money that there are even better indicators and correlators to RS than RBI. Both RBI and OBP are incomplete stats. Sometimes symbiotic and sometimes not.
Most stats are incomplete in telling a full story which is why there will NEVER be a holy grail stat! That is until some grand unified theory of everything is invented to plug all these numbers into! lol
Here is what I do know leaguewide.
There were
21,308 runs scored last year
20,288 of them were by RBI.
4613 were via HR
Only 1020 were recorded without an RBI meaning RS less likely to happen without an RBI.
4% of RS can be attributed to ON BASE with no help!
21% are due to a batter hitting a HR all by himself without any input or help from the guys on base (if any)!
the remaining 75% require SOMETHING with SOMETHING ELSE!
OB and RBI together. Neither is REALLY any more important than the other 75% of the time.
But when you factor in the 21% of the HR and the 75% of the remaining RBI 96% of all scoring involves the PA (Batter’s Box Activity) compared to the 79% of the time the OB is involved.
And THIS is the most important point I have tried to get accross to MMO and Xtreem in particular.
Something that is involved only 80% of the time should not be as important as something that is needed 96% of the time!
Especially when 21% of your RS comes from the batter not the runner!
The Yankees have led the league in OBP for a few years and it isn’t why they score all their runs.
Good teams have good numbers all around. They get a lot of hits, drive in a lot of runs and get on base while doing it!
They walk a lot because who wants to throw a strike to them they can clobber?
It all starts at what the guy does in the batter box. How good he hits will be indicative of how much he walks, gets on base, scores a run and drives one in.
In ALL cases the batter has to do something in the batter’s box to make any of it work. Getting on base is a result that does not tell you squat about what he will DO in the box. And if it doesn;t tell you that then really what good is it and how important should it be?
I look at the Box not the base. If he does his job in the box then the base will be a given!
This is why I am such a proponent to fighting with two strikes even if you think a pitch could be a ball. If it is close enough to call you had better try and hit it, even foul so you get one more chance to get that pitcher to throw me a mistake I can drive!
If there is no way it could be called, sure I will take the walk.
But I would much rather get the Mistake pitch than the base!
Cause with the mistake I can ensure an RS. If I take the base alone? Who knows?
How many runs did those 21% amount to? They weren’t all solo shots were they?
Can’t say because they don’t keep such records that I know of. They keep BA with RISP but they don’t include how many were due purely to HR. I simply calculated the 21% on the runs of the HR itself. I am sure an even higher percentage than 21% of all RS was attributable to those same HRs.
But the way I did it those are accounted for in the 75% that require both a OB and an RBI.
It seemed to be the fairest way to break it down given the data set we have to work with.
This is why I say the better Metrics are not available because baseball doesn’t record stats that could be important to better metrics.
Sabers tries to attempt to better use what is there but it too is limited by the stats that are actually kept by the MLB and which those metrics are based on.
They are usually kept on the scoresheet but rarely ever put into a statistical ledger.
Total Pitches a batter saw, BA with two stikes, little things that tell you about the PA which is where I think the most important stuff is happening.
Tampa barely walked more than the Yankees but the Yankees hit a lot better, slugged a lot better, got on base more, struck out less and Tampa lost some of their additional base runners to caught stealing.
There are some Rays that walk a lot and others that don’t. All the Yankees take the walk. Every single one of them. The Yankees haven’t brought anyone over here in 15 years that won’t take the walk. I think the last guy was Mariano Duncan. Every trade, every FA, every homegrown player and this has been going on since the early to mid 1990′s.
I really believe the whole money ball thing was a tactic to expose the Yankees philosophy after Beane and the A’s lost Giambi. The one player they really couldn’t afford to lose.
Basically they caused the market to over value what the Yankees were doing so it would cost them more money.
The A’s under Beane have always been about the pitching.
Let me ask you this because it also speaks to causality…
Does a batter do something to make a walk happen?
Or is it a lack of doing something that makes it occurr?
The Yankees take the walk cause it is given to them by the pitcher. Tampa takes what they get too. It is what happens the rest of the time that gets the Yankees those walks because no one wants to throw them a strike and I will bet Tamps’s has something to do with that too!
All in All the Walk is a failure by the pitcher not a success of the batter!
Ruben Tejada walked 22 times last year. No one was scared of him hitting. Every pitcher would have loved to start the next inning with the pitcher instead of Reyes but he worked it out. It is a part of the game. I would never prefer a walk over a hit but I would certainly prefer a walk to an out and I know by showing the Umpire I know the strike zone, that’s going to get me more pitches to hit and if I get walked I’ll take it cause as many cheap hits as I’ve had I also know that no matter how well you hit the ball it can be right at someone.
Always I’m starting a clean slate for our discussion as well.
“of course you need power (slugging%) to drive runs in. But you need men on base for it to matter.”
Why not just drive in those sluggers who got on and didn’t hit the HR?
You see why is OBP important when if you get the hitters who drive in runs they will also be able to be driven in as well!
So why the focus on OBP?
Why hire a guy simply because he walks a lot when you can get a guy who hits a lot and gets on base just as much but drives in Miyagi in the proccess?
Tag same for you…
As I sid they took 10 fewer walks than Tampa so why was their OBP much higher?
The Walks or the hitting?
They take walks because the pitcher won’t throw to them!
He makes that decision because of how he hits not because of his OBP!
This is the point I think is getting lost here…
And to a previous point I understand you were referring to the Leadoff position but I don’t think you have to have a leadoff guy in that mold.
Get a guy who hits .355 and his OBP will be somehwhere around .355 or better simply because he hits. Speed is a plus there but the ability or propensity to walk is not.
Not if you can get someone to hit! Then maybe he gets to 2nd or 3rd (note Reyes with the triples) and isn’t it much easier to score Miyagi then?
It’s a thin stat on the whole. It can make a bad BA look better but thats about it. you don’t even have to look much further than the BA to know how well the guy is at getting on base! If he hits well then he will get on and as a result the pitcher will try to stop the hit and give up the walk. Same result but maybe a base or three less than could have been.
think of the situation, You pinch hit for the Pitcher, guy hits a double.
Your leadoff guy is up, you want him to walk and put the DP into play or do you want him to hit and drive in the run?
If no one is on is a walk better than a hit in that scenario? Of course not.
So the idea I need a leadoff hitter isn’t all that great to me what I want is a hitter with speed if possible. If when he can’t get a pitch to hit he takes a walk thats fine but I would rather he get a hit even in that situation. Does a hell of a lot more damage to a pitcher’s psyche than a walk does.
Hitting is important not getting on base. Getting on base is a result of GOOD HITTING in both the cases of the hit and the walk!
A good Hitter will not get himself out by swinging at a ball!
OBP is just a number that tells you how often he did not make an out.
I already have an idea of that from his BA. So what do I really need OBP for? To make him look better than he really is?
“OBP is just a number that tells you how often he did not make an out.”
Isn’t the the most important aspect of hitting?
Look, let’s just declare a truce. I know you value OBP, just not as highly as I do. I think you have the wrong idea about what an RBI is, and you think I have the wrong idea about how useful a stat BA is. We’re not gonna convince each other.
If a topic or a post arises that we comment on, let it be. We don’t needs to reply to each other telling each other how wrong the other is. Let’s let Sandy buy and draft the tools he thinks most important. If the Mets win a World Series focusing only on OBP, I doubt you’d be upset. Same with me if he buys a bunch of 100-RBI guys from other teams.
Deal?
No how you hit the ball and where would be the most important. making contact with the bat and ball driving it to a location where a fielder is not is the most important aspect of hitting.
Not making an out might not have anything to do with a hit. He could have walked or got hit by a pitch! Those aren’t hits!
Not even as GOOD as a hit because neither has a chance to score a run unless the bases are loaded!
But hitting a single or better can CAUSE a run to score no matter what base a runner might be on at the time.
Hit a homerun and it doesn’t even matter if a runner IS on base!
sorry last lijne should read drive in a run not simply score a run. He could score but only if someone after him gets the job done!
Xtreem lets clear the air. I actually like you! I rib you because of your forlorn love affair with OBP. Never has someone been so dedicated to a stat that really for all intents and purposes is about as limited as could possibly be!
I know you are smart enough to one day realize why OBP is not really working and you will get there I am sure of it.
As for what Sandy is going to do If you have read my posts regarding it you would see that I am all for Sandy using any system, philosophy, belief he deems fit to do his job.
I personally don’t see him going in the direction you think is best here and I doubt he will conform to my way of thinking either but he has every chance in my book to prove to me that whatever system he employs will work!
What Sandy needs right now is time and he has it from me.
If he goes for all High OBP players well they had better do the other things well too or he won’t be here long.
As for the arguments between me and you I should hope you actually wanted to prove your case with real world data because in doing so you might actually make your point better!
And maybe in the proccess we would both find the better idea than both have put forth!
So I’m sorry for ragging you pretty good and I will look forward to a real statistical debate on different metrics and their components.
If I just wanted to be a pain in your butt I would not have spent the few hours doing those statistical comparisons to make my point.
At this point in time it seems like a much better conversation to engage in than talking about how many innings capuano is going to pitch for us.
You’re right about Capuano. And you and I share the same feelings on Sandy.
But as far as my real world data, the results itself are the data I use. You’re right, RBI matches up numerically to runs scored. But I contend they are essentially the same thing, the result of the batter’s action after a runner has reached base. You think the RBI is a cause. I disagee. OBP is a cause. So is SLG%. There are others. To date, none have proved a better method of scoring runs than getting on base more than the other guy consistently. I’ll be the first to admit when it stops working that way. Yes, there are singular games that don’t follow that formula, including the 20-inning marathon, but I look at larger sample sizes, 162 games, not one.
Until the most prolific run scoring teams STOP being the teams that reach base most often, I’m sticking to my guns.
Exactly how a team goes about reaching base is not a debate. You seem to think I would always eschew a base hit in favor of a walk. I don’t know how you arrived at that conclusion. I assure you it’s not true. I would always take a walk, however, over expanding the zone, swinging at a bad pitch, or swinging for the fences. I love OBP because it’s all-encompassing of reaching base, including walks AND hits. I’m more in love with wOBA, but I don’t bring it up because I’d be talking to a wall trying to discus that with someone who doesn’t even share my opinion of OBP.
I know you are smart enough to one day realize why OBP will always work and you will get there I am sure of it.
First off I wasn’t suggesting you would take the walk over the hit. But by using OBP you are saying the hit the walk and the HBP are all equal in value. SLG is just as bad as it says how many bases a guy is likely to get when he gets OB but again says nothing to the scoring potential of the guys who got on before him or how easy it will be to score him after! And this is true because not every OB is going to be as high as the SLG. Two unkowns can hardly make one known just guesses.
I see the hit as much more valuable as it provides the OBP AND the RBI when it can.
As for RBI being the same thing as RS, I would say there is a big difference.
The RS is recorded by the guy who scored who sometimes is the guy who got the RBI.
the RBI is guy who got the run in. He is more important because he doesn’t need a runner to get an RS. The other guy can’t get the RS on his own unless the RBI guy drove him in (with very few exceptions)
This is why we have had this causality issue.
You need to ask yourself did the runner cause the batter to drive him in?
Did he make him get a hit? NO!
Did he make him not make an out? NO!
Did he make him walk? NO!
Did he make the batter drive him in? No not unless he forced him to get that hit. sac fly or walk.
So his contribution to making the RS was not AS MUCH as the guy who drove him in. And the guy who drove him in may or may not have recorded the RS. Maybe someone else drives him in too, maybe he hits a HR, but the RBI is not the same thing as an RS. They count at the same rate because RS increases with RBI just an OBP increases with it.
This is what I was trying to get accross to you.
it is the act of doing something in a PA that causes not only OBP but RBI and RS to rise. So the fact that someone is on base is not as important as what is going on in the batters box.
There is the causality. What happens in the batter’s box not the base is the key.
The base runner can be a force multiplier and make that RBI or hit be twice as successful, Thrice as Successful even 4 times as good as he could do alone. But nothing happens if the batter doesn’t succeed.
That makes the batter the most important part of that proccess.
“But by using OBP you are saying the hit the walk and the HBP are all equal in value.”
You’re right, that’s an inherent problem with OBP. That’s why I said I love wOBA more. We can discuss that, if you’d like.
But as much as you’ve described the problem with OBP, it still remains the most correlated of the causes to run scored.
“the RBI is guy who got the run in. He is more important because he doesn’t need a runner to get an RS.” If he hits the ball over the fence, once he touches first base while rounding the bases, he’s a base runner. When he scores, the runs scored and the RBI is logged. If he misses a base and is called out on an appeal, the run or RBI doesn’t count, even though he hit the ball over the wall. A baserunner is always the first ingredient in a run scoring recipe.
A run CAN NEVER, EVER, EVER, EVER score without a baserunner, even if the baserunner was also the batter a second ago.
Doesn’t matter,
The guy who drives him in is the one with the talent. Eddie Gaedel could get on base but cannot drive them in.
Give me guys who drive in runs first to build a team ahead of guys who just “get on base” anytime. At least I know the guys who drive in runs can hit, can’t say the same about guys just knowing their OBP.
Naturally common sense tells you if you’re just told a guy has a .375 OBP he’s most likely a good hitter, but is he a leadoff hitter or a power hitter and if so how much power and does he strike out a lot..and on an on.
Give the the guys who can hit and drive in runs first anytime.
Sorry Metsie, When you come up and the bases are empty it is your job to get on. Period. If you do and then get driven in that person did HIS job. So combined both of you did your job and most importantly because both of you did your job the next guy in the line up gets a chance to do his job, and if he does his job…….so on and so forth.
No it is your job to score a run. That job never changes no matter if there are runners on or not, 1 or 2 outs your job is to score a run by any means neccessary not just get on base and hope someone else makes you a success!
You get on first you should try to steal 2nd and get into scoring position and hope someone makes your on base worth having. Thats really the issue, OB isn;’t worth squat till SOMEONE does something with it and thats why in the case of the HR the OB means squat because someone already did something with it before he got to the first base!
Metsie, I worry about getting on first, then worry about getting in. I’m not a HR type. My game would suck if I tried. Most runs require at least 2 hits and 100% of mine do.
If there is a guy on first do you worry about getting on first or worry about driving him in with a double?
You know what you SHOULD worry about when at the plate?
Putting the bat on the ball and hitting it where they do not have a fielder!
Thats all you should be thinking about. Then depending on how well you do that you will get either a single double triple and even sometimes a home run!
hell Santana hit one this year didn’t he?
Thats what is important. If you worry about getting on base you are worrying about something other than the task at hand.
Putting good wood on the ball and driving it!
Whatever base you get does not matter! If you do that consistently you will have a HIGH BA, and even HIGHER OBP and quite possibly more RBI as well because you are hitting the ball far enough to score a run even on a fly ball out! Or advance the runner so the next guy can.
Maybe even score yourself because you hit the HR.
You should not concern yourself with the OB or what base because that is putting the cart before the horse!
Making good contact and working the pitcher to get the pitch you can drive is the most important part of batting and scoring runs. Because everything else falls into the place you want it to be if you do that!
If your willing to settle for a walk you are basically leaving all the work for the next guy!
Not to make him look better than he is. More to see who can help you most and where. (.300 and .375) or (.300 and .325) at leadoff. Obviously the first example. Why? The first guy gets OB more and you want should want the guy who gets on the most in front of the guys who get the most hits (especially HR’s) because a 2 run HR is better than a solo shot. Combine an up grade from .325 to .375 OB in the first two spots in your lineup and you just added 70 extra base runners in front of your best hitters. Some will be erased by DP/pick off/not touching 3B/interfearing with the fielder ect but still 50 more base runners and the same production from 3 4 and 5 and that SHOULD, given all else remains the same score 15 more runs.
True if you can’t find a guy who can hit just as well as the rest of the team.
Then you try to get him on base early and hope the guys you have that do hit drive him in…
But is that the ideal or the consolation backup plan?
Get a guy who hits for average and a bit of speed and you will get the same and MORE as you will by some other guy with a high OBP and lower BA. And you will score more runs because he will hit when he has the opportunity of guys on base as well.
Get the hitters and the OBP really isn’t a concern.
On a rainy day if you see the rain did you really have to look down to see if the floor was wet?
Well if the guy hits with a high BA do you really need to look at the OBP to see that he gets on base a lot?
If not then how important is that stat really?
Sometimes you have a player who is so valuable elsewhere that you have to live with him as a poor hitter. Rey Ordonez was that type for us. Rey was never going to be a great hitter but if Rey never swung at a pitch out of the strike zone he would have gotten a lot more pitches to hit, a lot more walks and made a lot less outs. Considering that our offense was basically Fonzie, Olerud, Piazza, Ventura if he, batting 8th or 9th could have walked 50 more times a year that alone would have given all those guys more AB’s then they did get, more RBI then they did get and Rey would have gotten more hits too which would have provided even more of the same plus the team would have gotten more runs which is the idea of the offense.
But Tag once you have gotten to the point of SETTLING on lesser your no longer talking about the ideal candidate.
Circumstances always force a team to SETTLE and if your at that point then fine settling for OBP at that point is fine.
But you do not look for the OBP first until you are sure the ideal your looking for is not there!
Put it this way…
A Player’s OBP will always be higher than his BA.
It will never be LOWER! It simply can’t happen!
Because OBP adds all these extra Nice but not as good as a hit stats it should not be looked at FIRST, Maybe second but the BA will tell you what the player will do in the most important aspect.
High BA = High OBP!
But High OBP does not mean High BA ever! You CAN have a high OBP and a lousy BA!
So why bother looking at the stat that can lie to you about what is important instead of looking at the stat that IS and which also ensures that High OBP will follow as well?
I know that BA is more important but by itself very hollow. Lots of guys have had hollow .300 BA’s through the years cause their walking back to the dugout 70% of the time vs. the .300 hitter walking back 60% of the time.
That 10% by one guy is a help, that 10% by 3 guys is huge, that 10% by 6 guys is Yankee RedSox like.
Point of reference: Believe it or not you can actually have a lower OB% than BA. Barajas (or maybe Benjie) had that for a while last year.
Ok guys I have an early flight to Vegas to do Joy Behar and Miss America broadcasts out of there so I probably won’t be around for awhile.
So if I do not reply to anything else said here you know why.
I’ll oogle some contestants for you!
lol
Hey Metsie, Have a great time and don’t forget to let us know what Miss America’s OB% is OK.
WTF? Should I ask how many RBIs reyes had???