14
2011
2011 Mets: A Risky Proposition
An article by 
While the Yankees go about their business of building the best bullpen in baseball, and the Royals pluck one of our remaining free agent pitching options out from under our noses, lets turn to a topic that is always near but never dear to a Mets fan’s heart; injuries, or in Mets-speak, “Prevention & Recovery”.
Those words were being championed during spring training a year ago by a Mets organization that endured a historic season full of injuries and days lost to the disabled list in 2009. There was going to be a renewed focus on prevention through more drills and better conditioning, and recovery was not going to be the nightmare it was the year before due to better procedures that were adopted. So how did that work out for us?
Not that good, as this graphic from ReadTheApple.com will remind you. The team’s highest compensated players all missed significant chunks of the season and two of them, Jason Bay and Johan Santana, would never return.
All teams have injuries, one might say, but not at these unprecedented levels. Fan Graphs charted dollars lost to the disabled list for every Major League team and not surprisingly, the Mets topped the charts in 2010 just as they did in 2009. This time the damage was not as bad as two years ago, but still substantial at $24.7 million dollars lost or better yet, 18.4% of their total payroll in 2010.
You would think that regime-change would put a stop to this disturbing trend, but I’m not so sure, and in fact I believe we are more at risk going into this season, than we were a year ago.
I decided to analyze our current 40-man roster and recent transactions, and I looked at every single player. I created an injury risk scale from 1-5, with 1 being the highest risk for injury and 5 being the lowest. Some of the criteria I used for determining each players level of risk is as follows.
Level 1: High Risk – These are players that ended the season on the disabled list with a major injury, pitchers who have had recent surgery on their elbow or shoulder, players who have found it hard to stay healthy in the last two years especially those with leg injuries whose game is based on speed.
Level 2: Medium to High Risk – These include players that have had recent minor surgeries, missed significant time last season, or have had injury plagued careers. For example I included Angel Pagan in this group because at age 30 he is coming off his first season that didn’t require a trip to the DL. (Although he did have a close call.)
Level 3: Medium Risk – This includes players who may not have suffered a significant injury last season, but are at risk due to other circumstances. For example the Verducci Effect, young pitchers who had an extremely high innings load as compared to the prior season. This would also include players who used performance enhancers in the past year. Players who suddenly stop using performance enhancers are usually at higher risk for injury than an otherwise clean player under the same circumstances.
I then took the players that fell into the the three highest risk categories, and included them in this chart I created.
When I saw the results of my analysis charted out like this, I couldn’t help thinking how precarious this season is already starting to look. Due to budget constraints, the Mets were forced to take chances with players who are at a high risk for injury, and more of these type players could still be on the way.
I caution all of you to not only keep your fingers crossed this season, but maybe your toes as well.
* * * * * * * * * *
Site News - I’ve been spending a lot of time trying to recover from some health issues I suffered during the holidays. I’m getting better, but won’t be back to my usual pace of posting for another week or two. In the meantime I want to thank all the other writers who have stepped up to help. I particularly want to recognize Kelly Horn, Joe Spector, Ed Leyro, John Delcos, Doug Branch, Greg Pomes and Jim Mancari for their always solid efforts. The same goes for the Mets blogosphere’s best known group of aliases and nicknames; Tie Dyed, The Coop, Annie Savoy, Hojo’s Mojo, Jessep (Congrats on your new baby daughter!) and XtreemIcon. I also want to welcome Clayton Collier, Craig Lerner and Brandon Butler to MMO. They’ve already been at it for a few weeks and you can already see what great additions they are going to be for us this season. Thanks to all of you!
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73 and '00, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 41 | 28 | .594 | - |
| Nationals | 34 | 34 | .500 | 6.5 |
| Phillies | 33 | 37 | .471 | 8.5 |
| Mets | 25 | 39 | .391 | 13.5 |
| Marlins | 21 | 47 | .309 | 19.5 |
Last updated: 06/16/2013
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Continued good health Joe and I hope you get better quick, we definitely need more of your input. I was just about to ask you what you thought of the off season so far but I think you already answered my question.
Take your time Joe your people are doing solid work holding things down here at MMO.
Your counter says 35 days till pitchers & catchers. How about using that as a goal?
That chart says it all. Three of the high risks were new recently signed players! As if we didnt alreay have enough concerns with Johan, Beltran, etc. we go out and add more concerns to a season that hasnt even started.
Also, I dont see why Bay wasnt in the redzone? He should be there also.
I hope you get better.
Best wishes Joe.
Is it any wonder with SO many older players that we have led the Major leagues 5 times in 17 years with the most dollars parked on the DL?
The fact that we spent so much money on these past their prime players who then, not unforeseeably, got injured that we had to back them up with the least expensive possible alternatives. Other teams rejects, players too young to contribute (who shouldn’t even have been on the 40 man roster and are right now hampering our ability to make some moves) or guys who just flat out shouldn’t have even been playing Major league baseball anymore, for anyone. Certainly not a team with a top 5 payroll.
Right now we’re limited to pump and dump type projects. Buy low, hopefully get something productive, raise their value and see if anyone wants to give us something useful for them come July. Failing that we could net some picks if any of them make it to free agency as plan B or even type A performers. These are the types of things we have to do now because of all the damn the future moves this franchise has specialized in ever since the Wilpon took the helm.
Examining how we crashed yet again is important in order to change the way we have been doing business over the last 25 years.
Looking back at the Mo Vaughn situation for example is a good case study. Mo was injured and despised in his own club house and had to be moved by the Angels. We had just signed as a type A free agent (giving up a #1 pick – Jeremy Bonderman) Starting Pitcher Kevin Appier who over all pitched very well for us even if his games were 4 hours long.
Having decided to go very old at every position for the 2nd time and seeing an injured and unpopular player that no other team wanted (to pay or to play) the Wilpon decided that this was too good of an opportunity to pass up, so we traded a useful starting pitcher (who we obtained by giving away our #1 draft choice for) in order to plant him at 1B. After paying him well and receiving very little for it he retired leaving us with no picks, no prospects, no title, no nothing.
When you think back to all the older past their prime players the Wilpon has collected through the years and tried to foist off as “key parts of a winning team,” and then after the inevitable injury’s and under performance received back absolutely zippo for them is it any wonder we keep running out of players? Is it any big surprise that we exchange one bad player and contract for an even worse one? Can anyone really come up with anything else that we could have done other than swooping over the landfill like a flock of seagulls?
We can’t afford to give up anything cause we really HAVE nothing to give up unless you want to open another hole somewhere else.
Most of the value that we COULD afford to trade that would both bring something back AND not kill us today is at it’s lowest value. Trading that now would get us very little, waiting will get us something between nothing or something pretty good. That’s a chance we have to take.
The most valuable commodities are inexpensive proven ML quantities with many years of team control ahead. Is anyone in favor of trading Ike Davis? I’m not. Who else is there? Pagan? OK. Then who plays CF? Beltran more than likely cannot play it anywhere near as well as Angel and who will play it in 2012? Newenhaus? Very questionable. Trade Mejia, Flores, Tejada? Their value is very low right now compared to what it might be, and in my opinion will be in a few years but what that will just open up more holes in the future. What will we do for SP, SS/2B, or LF then? Rob from the future again? Isn’t that what got us into this mess?
You can talk all you want about Pelfrey, Niese, Thole, Parnell and Davis but none of these guys are Linsecum, Cain, McCann, or Bard and there have been many many washouts of the few draft choices we have held onto through the last decade.
Year Round Pick Could have been
2002 1 Kazmir Hamels, Cain
2002 2 Lost pick (David Weathers) Jon Lester, Brian McCann
2003 1 Milledge Hill,Murphy,Cordero,Billingsley
Barton, Adam jones
2003 2 no pick (Floyd) Sweeney, Either, Baker
2004 1 Humber Walker,Weaver,Drew,Hughes,St.
2004 2 Durkin Pedroia, Suzuki
2005 1 Pelfrey McCutchen,Bruce,Ellsbury,Garza
Rasmus,Bukholtz,Lowrie
2005 2 no pick (Pedro) Headley, Yuniel Escobar
2006 1 no pick (Wagner) Drabek,Bard,Coghlan,Joba
2006 2 Mulvey Trevor Cahill
2007 1 no pick (Alou) Tommy Hunter
2007 1s Kunz (R. Hernandez) Mike Stanton, D’Naurd
2007 1s Nathan Vinyard Jordan Zimmerman
2007 2 Scott Moviel Freddie Freeman
2007 2 Rustich (R. Hernandez) Austin Romaine
Now the last thing I’m suggesting is that the first, supplemental and second rounds are sure things but the fact is there is plenty of talent out there and we have done a very bad job in either identifying it, drafting it, signing it or developing it. One way or another we’re screwing it up with the end result being that we always run out of players, which in turn causes us to have to trade prospects for help now further diminishing our future and causing more dependence on whoever happens to be a free agent in a particular year which then causes us to give away yet another high draft choice. Talk about a dog chasing it’s tail.
I’m sure that there will be plenty of people eagerly defending us voluntarily giving away our #1 pick for a 40 year old outfielder, 34 year old closer, 34 year old pitcher and then turning our noses up at taking back some draft picks by letting Wagner, Castillo and Perez go free agent because “who else were we going to get for that spot.” I’m not buying that argument because the reason we had no one is because we gave away so many picks through the years and then drafted poorly when we did have the picks.
This is the reason we are scavenging over the landfill after spending a billion dollars over the last 7 years and having 1 post season to show for it. Spin that.
well, if having a well above average agewise team means you are pirmed to get smacked by injuries, 2011 should be the Phillies turn. Easliy the oldest team in the league now, including many of their key guys.
T, ok, it’s official, u finally succeeded in blurring my vision while attempting to find some current significance to your ramblings. Mo Vaughn? is that the best u could come up with & while we’re at it. PLEASE finally repond to my age old request to each of these similar rants of yours & defend your ludicrous comnments like “with so many old players” by responding with rlevant names not those from pre2006 where we actually went over PRIME. For sake of sanity I define a positional player’s productivity as bewtween the ages of 28-32. All I’m asking for from you is the name of one such player added to the roster with the expectation of getting at least 150 games played(disqualifies Alou,Tatis, Cora) because they were benchers or part-time solutions mainly since even when Omar inked Alou, he stated his expectation level was for only 100 games played. You repeatedly choose to ignore the simple fact that as regards roster age over the past 2-3 seasons, Philadelphia, Atlanta & NYY have ALL exceeded our avg. According to the latest data available from ESPN on avg roster age;
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rosters/_/sort/average_age/order/false
U’ll see our ranking is #13 in a measurable statistic I personally believe it best to be dead center in(#15) not too old nor too young.(see Goldilocks, lol)
On a totally separate issue I disagree that Reyes fits Joe D’s criteria set as: ” players who have found it hard to stay healthy in the last two years especially those with leg injuries whose game is based on speed.”
Since Rees’ legs had been totrally sound last season while he did miss time due to a dietary issue causing a “malfuntioning” thyroid & certainly not an injury. rucurrable or not!
Personally, as with any consideration for past incidents/behavior, I DO NOT believe Bay particularly belongs on this list in any category for not even those loathesome auto insurance companies hold a one time occurance against a regularly stable driver.
I think it’s just as logical to cite KARMA as anything else since from 2003 through 7/31/06 the Mets’ were quite fortunate on the roster health issue it’s just as sensible to consider our good fortune has caught up & the 2 devasting years as counterbalances to ’03-July,’06.
#*$/ HAPPENS! However, I do believe the new reginme should certainly be independent enough to wuithstand any medling from above that adversely effects tyhe management of injuries & the d/l!
’62, I did make a long listing of the older players Omar acquired and then resigned and counted on again and I will not adhere to your 150 game barrier because with a team you never know how much time a starter or backup is going to get.
The Mo Vaughn example is relevant in determining why we always run out of players. We gave up a #1 pick for Appier, then traded him for Vaughn who did little and retired. Had we kept our pick maybe we draft Haren. Maybe we draft Theriot or Hairston and avoid the “well who else were we going to get to play 2B.” bad signing of Castillo. At least we would have had someone who could do something.
If your argument is going to be that we would have screwed up the pick or developing the prospect that is a different argument.
14 of our 25 players on the 2006 post season roster wer anywhere from 32-47 years old. We had no farm. The steroid era was over. Where we’re we going to go from there? Only one way ’62. Downhill.
Considering that we gave up prospects for 1B, and later for an ace and an injured relief pitcher, Draft picks for CF and starting pitcher and closer and then did the same next year for LF and then did the same for closer and LF again, drafted poorly when we kept the picks and didn’t hit on ANY of Omar’s early IFA’s how exactly we’re you expecting to replenish a team that had 14 players aged 32-47 years old?
The prospects we traded didn’t turn out to be that great but we didn’t draft them with the idea of ripping off our trade partner. At the time of the draft they were considered either to be the best players available or the easiest to sign I don’t know which. Maybe we just screw up the developing.
32 year old who needs surgery on BOTH knees. How is he supposed to be ready for 2008? Tim Redding? Schneider, Santos, Church, Francouer? GMJ, Cora, Jacobs, Shefield, Sullivan, Feliciano, Hessman, Reed, Cattalanotto? In year 5 and 6. Sorry ’62, bad job.
Miss on some free agents, give up draft choices, draft poorly, develop poorly, get unlucky with injuries, have 1 ace and 4 question marks, bad production from expensive players, and have to cheap out on the bench and the minors and the draft and IFA stagnation = 71 and 79 wins in year 5 and 6. Omar would have done it differently if he had to do it over again. Count on it.
’62, Hope the blurry vision goes away before the NFL playoff games.
One thing I want to re-clarify (once again) in regard to age is position player age. I want younger more athletic position player because they have their best years from 24-31. They play their best defense and run the bases the best during those ages.
Pitchers peak a round 30 years and can frequently remain dominant into their mid 30′s. Position players due to the more athletic nature of their jobs, and the day to day grind, especially when backed up by incapable reserves, are more injury prone and more in need of days off.
La Duca, Delgado, Valentin/Castillo, Blanco/Barajas, Alou/Bay, Green had ALL of their contracts in the past the prime area of their career’s.
Younger position players Francouer/Church/Schneider/Santos/A. Reyes/A. Hernandez just really weren’t very good.
Pedro/El-Duque/Wagner were older pitchers who did break down.
Pelfrey/Neise/Gee/ are or were young pitchers who by nature tend to take 2 steps forward and one step back.
Maine and Perez should have at the least given us 4th and 5th spots with 4.50 era and 6+ IP bare minimum. This could not be accounted for.
Draft for corner players ability to hit like corner players. Draft for middle players who can play in the middle. Stockpile catchers. Trade for or sign the big FA aces. Make sure your bench compliments your starters and is young enough to play good D. Expect to re work your pen every year. Don’t burn #1′s on closers (Kyle Drabek, Mike Trout) and pay them 10, 12, 17 million dollars to get 3 outs every 3 games. Extend your best position players in year 4 to get you to age 32, then offer arb, let ‘em go, replace them with new prospects GROOMED to be successful up here from their first moment in the Majors, have two more capable prospects in case of need and scout, draft, sign and develop well.
I would move a few guys into a lower catagory. Reyes, bay and K Rod at least. Although I am more looking at it from the perspective of how likely do I think it is they will be hurt in 2011, not so much from what happened last year (if that makes sense!)
Get well Joe.
Good post 69, I enjoy your replies filled with facts not just opinion.
I also believe that Jose belongs on the orange/yellow list cause he spent a chunk of time getting ready for 2010 and then a diet problem shelves him and delays his return to lineup, !#$% happens and Mets have been snake bitten lately especially with concussions to Church, Bay and Wright; that does not make them prone to injury, it is just bad luck.
Hey JoeD missed your posts, I have dealt with health issues in the past and it takes time but you want to be 100%, hope Mets “Doctors are not yours
”, to be able to finish out the season. Best Wishes.
PS
The fact that we came up short in 06, injuries to Pedro and Sanchez, made Omar believe that he needed a “veteran” precence on team and he went and signed older players that were more likely to be hurt than younger players.
That as much as the collapse by team in 07 and 08 have hurt the continuity of this team getting better, IMHO!