27
2011
One Way or Another: Part One
An article by 
Blogger’s Note: I have been thinking about writing a piece about this for awhile. It’s been a tough one to get all out on paper, so I have decided to break this into two parts: one today, one tomorrow. In the meantime, here is Part One of “One Way or Another.” ~ Coop
If you listen to one part of the Mets fan base, this offseason is a bust and Sandy Alderson is a “hack.” The other half says, Alderson is smart for waiting it out and not spending like a drunken sailor, like previous administrations have done. While sexy names like Cliff Lee or Jayson Werth (tongue-in-cheek) have stayed away from Flushing, Sandy Alderson has gotten a lot of the little things right by going after higher-risk and higher-reward types on the open market.
One of the first items on his checklist was to exercise Jose Reyes’ option for the 2011 season, which he did. However, when Reyes recently stated that he didn’t want to negotiate any contract extensions during the season, this perked my ears. The last contract extension he signed was mid-season, in 2006, when the Mets were riding high and they were winning and everyone was happy. So now there’s a bit of a standoff with Reyes and the front office. He is in essence saying “Negotiate now” and the Mets (perhaps rightfully so) are waiting to see how he performs.
One possibility is that injury-prone Reyes could indeed have his break out year, coincidentally with his “walk” year. Surprise, surprise, as he would hardly be the first nor the last to do that. The other possibility is that same injury prone Reyes could be, well, hurt for some time this season, and therefore they don’t want to put the cart before the horse and give him an extension now.
I say hogwash to that. There’s absolutely no reason why Jose Reyes should not warrant at least a three-year extension right now, as his value is probably lower not only for the hometown discount but for his not-so-hot recent playing years, namely 2009 and 2010. For an office that predicates their philosophy on “value,” the time is now for him.
However, barring that happening (it is pretty unlikely), the idea from bloggers, beat writers and the vocal fan is that come 2012, Reyes will no longer be a Met. Here’s the oft-repeated scenario: he’ll have a breakout season, and he’ll ask for “too much money.” The Mets will either: low-ball him in money/years, think he’s “not worth it” or “they’ll be too cheap” to sign him. Though I will attest till I am blue in the face that the Mets have demonstrated that over the course of my fandom, they are a) NOT cheap and b) just dumb with their money and who they spend it on…kicking Reyes to the curb WHETHER OR NOT he has a career year in 2011 at age 28 is an idea that horrifies me.
In Jose Reyes we lose a lot if he walks. We lose a shortstop [please spare me the whole “Ruben Tejada (or Wilmer Flores, depending on who you talk to) is the shortstop of the future” business], we lose a leadoff hitter, we also lose a guy that other teams love to hate. That intangible can’t be quantified yet it’s incredibly tough to replace.
Something people tell me is that Jose Reyes is the antithesis to what Sandy Alderson wants in a leadoff hitter. While I have a ton of respect and intrigue related to sabermetrics and using this as a way to quantify undervalued players, Jose Reyes when he’s healthy is certainly an elite-with-great-potential leadoff hitter. Let’s take a look at his recent stats along with some of the other leadoff hitters through MLB.
| Name | Team | PAs | BA | OBP | BB | K | H | RS |
| Jose Reyes | Mets | 603 | .282 | .321 | 31 | 63 | 159 | 83 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | Mariners | 732 | .315 | .359 | 45 | 86 | 214 | 74 |
| Rajai Davis | A’s | 561 | .284 | .320 | 26 | 78 | 149 | 66 |
| Shane Victorino | Phillies | 648 | .259 | .327 | 53 | 79 | 152 | 84 |
| Jason Bartlett | Rays | 532 | .254 | .324 | 45 | 83 | 119 | 7 |
2010 Stats: Baseball Reference
Please bear in mind the following: I have no idea how many of these Plate Appearances where the hitter was batting in the actual “leadoff” position in the lineup (remember: Jose Reyes even batted third in the lineup for a period of time), this was based on what ESPN has broken out as the “leadoff” hitter in the respective teams’ lineups, and that I personally chose these hitters because they were well-known as “the leadoff hitter” of their respective team in 2010. I also used Plate Appearances as opposed to “At-Bats” since I am paying closer attention to walks, and I feel PAs may be a better assessment for their actual percentages. And, as always, lies, damned lies, and statistics ~ Mark Twain.
Moving right along, the consensus is that a leadoff hitter should have the following components: they need to draw walks; they should be speedy; slugging is a lesser evil as they don’t need to hit them over the wall per se; they should have a reputation of being aggressive on the basepaths; essentially, they should model themselves after Willie “Mays” Hayes in Major League. The gold-standard On-Base Percentage for leadoff hitters should not be less than .350.
Interesting, as Ichiro Suzuki from the Seattle Mariners is widely known as the ideal leadoff hitter, and he’s the only one of the players I have chosen in this vacuum to have a .350+ OBP for 2010. Also surprisingly, he doesn’t walk that much, only 6% of his plate appearances accounted for that (his strength lies in that he’s a singles hitter). The one on the list who drew the most walks, perhaps not surprisingly to us, was Shane Victorino. Yet he and Jason Bartlett of the Tampa Bay Rays (now San Diego Padres) drew walks 8% of the time. Formerly of Oakland-now-Toronto’s Rajai Davis and Reyes bring up the rear, 5% of the time. Reyes’ numbers didn’t surprise me, as everyone was a bit “off” on the Mets this year; yet the speedmeister Davis was touted as some premier leadoff guy for Oakland.
Reyes’ strength is that he doesn’t strikeout all that often, but his real value comes to us in the form of hits and runs scored. I think I might be alone in this assessment, but I feel as though runs scored is sort of an arbitrary thing that ties into OBP. It’s more reflective of who is driving the guy in, but that’s sort of a chicken-or-egg analysis on my part which I’m sure someone will be happy to tear apart. But think about how abysmal the Mets were at scoring opportunities in 2010. Reyes had the highest scoring percentage based on his plate appearances out of the five I included here, slightly edging out Victorino and Bartlett, who are on respective offensive powerhouses and the teams who were the class of their divisions in 2010.
The common refrain I hear is that Reyes, ultimately, does not fit into the whole Sandy Alderson/Dream Team Executive sabermetric plan. “For a leadoff hitter, he needs to get have a higher OBP and draw more walks.” I can’t say I disagree with that statement, if he wasn’t getting on base at all. Sure, he could use some plate discipline but who didn’t on this team? If he’s scoring lots of runs and more valuable that way, perhaps then should we question if the whole OBP thing is overrated? I think it’s shortsighted if they were to view Reyes in a vacuum like that, just as I did with the five leadoff hitters I chose above. It’s simply not going to tell the whole story.
I would like to think that Alderson and his “dream executive team” are looking at the big picture when it comes to our current state of affairs. I just hope that if they do decide to “wait it out” with Reyes, that it doesn’t come back to bite us. They are the so-called smartest guys in the room, so I hope they are assessing the idea of Reyes being on the team for the longer-term.
One way or another, a future without Jose Reyes is not one I’d like to think about.
About the Author: Taryn Cooper
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nice piece. I do agree that they should have been aggressive, and made a priority, to get him extended early in the off season.
I am also on record thinking that he is going to have a big year, and most likely will get a crazy arse contract offer from some team (as in, crawford money) and the team won’t be willing/able (your choice) to match. And he will bolt.
I disagree that he should be put in the “injury prone” category. He had a tendon issue, that was finally diagnosed and fixed, in 2009 and which caused no problems since. Other than that, a thyroid problem (fluke illness, and resolved) and a muscle pull that he mostly played through.
Before that, 4 straight iron man years. And right now, he has nothing chronic or structurally wrong, so there is no reason to think that he will be hurt or miss significant time in the next few years.
he is also just entering his prime year range, exactly when he likely has his biggest years, and the time we want him signed for!
I hope that the FO gets there “want to see him play” evaluation out of the way during ST, and sign him to an extension (hopefully kept to 5 years) before the season starts.
if nothing else, the mets should have some money to spend next off season. And if you look at the list of potential guys, assuming Pujols does extend, the 2 names that pop out are Reyes and Fielder. And which one do you think the mets will actually have a need for?
Stick, there are a few things that come to mind…the mets – bad contracts and all – have a lot of $$ coming off the books this year (namely $18mm paid to the order of Castillo and Perez), and could very well afford Jose Reyes – no matter how much is “too much” – Jose Reyes probably won’t get $18mm per year anywhere…that raises another question – what would be a fair contract amount for Reyes providing he doesn’t get extended prior to the season? Another item I am addressing is the need for Reyes and another player. That should be ready to go tomorrow…I hope!
Nice article Coop.
Met fans are divided along the go for it this year type and the get it right for the long haul ones. I belong to the later group because we’ve been trying that borrow from the future approach for a decade now and where has it gotten us?
As for Reyes, I am in full agreement about signing him right now. Four years. How much? Impossible to put a value on him in my opinion, but I think he’s exactly the kind of player we should be taking a chance on.
I’m afraid of the whole Crawford Money thing myself. There very similar players and Reyes plays THE premium defensive position, Crawford plays the easiest defensive position (although he plays it well) One thing I was ecstatic about was the Angels taking on 100% of Wells’ contract. Reyes is THE perfect fit for Anaheim and Mike Soccia. Does this mean they might not have the funds for Reyes? I certainly hope so.
Putting aside the lead off issue, few SS’s in MLB are as good defensively AND offensively as Reyes. Of the leadoff hitters you mentioned above only Bartlett is a SS and really there is no comparison.
As for leadoff he HAS regressed in his pitch recognition and become too aggressive. Probably a combination of missing a lot of time, impending free agency, playing on a team last year who had FOURTEEN guys on it who got OB less than TWO starting pitchers did which is simply unheard of, and being out of the race by the end of July.
I don’t care how Jose does it but .350 OB is well within his grasp. Pitchers are using his aggressiveness against him and there is an easy way to solve it. Look first pitch FB and drive it, don’t get it, take the pitch and don’t be afraid to take a pitch with 2 strikes. Their not throwing him any anyway. He’s not getting a pitch to hit with 2 strikes, he’s getting something way off the plate. Take it. Make them come in with something good. Basically what I’m saying is Jose should only swing at pitches that he can drive. First pitch, 3rd pitch, 8th pitch, who cares. He’s swinging at too many balls, fouling them off and then getting something even farther off the plate and fouling that off too or grounding out. One month of this and pitchers will be afraid to lay strike one in there so there’s a great chance he starts 1-0. Then if he doesn’t chase he’s up 2-0. Now the pitchers screwed, he’s GOT to come in and Reyes is in control. Reyes has not been in control of his AB’s but if he does this he will be. Just make sure you get his signature before April 1.
Those stats are from 2010, right? I had no idea Reyes had over 600 plate appearances. It didnt feel like it that’s for sure. I thought the comparison to Victorino was the most telling. Even in an off year, Reyes matched him. As for fitting into the whole sabermetric plan, those people simply need to chill out. They want to field a team where every hitter has a .400 OBP and wont stop complaining until it happens. Unfortuantely the Mets dont have a $250 million dollar payroll to accomplish this illusion of theirs. Reyes may have a lower OBP but he makes up for it because he turns about 40 of his singles into doubles with his speed and it doesn’t show up in that other damned stat they love OPS. Reyes will have a solid year and be one of the games most dynamic players even without that .400 obp.
LAMF, I had the same idea. You’d think because he got off to a late start that he wouldn’t have had all those PAs, but he did. On the flip side, I don’t think that sabermetrics is really what’s holding them back — I think it’s his 2009 injury and down-ish year in 2010 (coming back from said injury, and who knows what effects from his thyroid issue) is making them be cautious. I can’t say I blame them in that respect, but they must look at the bigger picture. he will turn it around, if 100% healthy, he will be one of the top players in baseball…and they need to think about what another team would likely give him. Just because the Mets don’t pay him a lot doesn’t mean another team wouldn’t be happy to. Thanks for the comment!
I blame 2009 on the way his injury was handled. He was rushed into a rehab stint before he was ready and reinjured, losing the rest of the season. He’s been an ironman since 2004 except for that injury in 2009. Sandy had better sign him before his price goes thru the roof!
It seems to me that this is the time for Reyes to be able, if he stays healthy, and it sure looks like he should be that, he will be able to go all out, and give it the best of what he can do.
And what he can do is WAY BETTER then the states that he gave last year.
Last year he was all set to go all out until they found a medical problem just before the season started. This started his emotions to go down hill as he waited out his injury, so that he could start to play. Then he got all screwed up because the manager batted him 3rd, and he did not want that, so that slowed him down. Finally they batted him first, yet his bad emotions carried on and he did not get out of his going downward spiral until a month latter, when he came close to his real game. Remember I said close, but not all out. My guess is that he saw that the team, and the manager was not playing all out, so he did not do it.
Yet when you add it all up his states was comparable to the other good SS. Which means, if he was good all year long, his states more then likely would blow the other SS away.
So when they use his states of 2010, it is completely unfair.
And this year will be the time that we will see one of the best players in the game go all out. And hopefully the team will be able to sign him up for many more seasons. Because if he does go all out and he is not a Met after that, it would be bad, really bad, so bad that it will effect the team and the attendance for a few years to come.
I was going to use previous years, where he’s played full seasons and not injured – but I thought with the warts and all we heard about Reyes in 2010…his stats were not AS bad as we thought they were. Sure, this was not one of his best, but it’s unfair to preclude the previous years if in fact they are doing that (which I doubt, but we hear all these stories about Reyes not figuring into the Mets future, which is all speculation but we hear so much about them, they may as well be fact)
Nice piece, Coop. I loves me some Jose Reyes. I’m curious how you arrived at those four specific players for comparison, though. What made them stand out?
Hey Xtreem – thanks for the feedback.
I kind of drew them out of a hat, honestly. Victorino and Bartlett I chose because they were on teams that won their respective divisions so I wanted to see how important it was for OBP/BB/H/RS for those teams, Rajai Davis was mentioned to me as some premier leadoff hitter (yet, quite honestly, he really didn’t stand out – maybe he needs some seasoning, although I believe he’s older than Reyes), and Ichiro because he’s pretty much known as the gold standard. I was surprised that Ichiro wasn’t as much of an OBP maven as you’d think. he gets lots of hits, but not lots of walks. But he had one of the highest.
Seems like a good enough reason. In case you were wondering, since you did mention it, as a leadoff hitter only, Reyes had this line based on your categories above:
PAs BA OBP BB K H RS
507 .297 .333 26 49 141 70
HOW WERE YOU ABLE TO DISTINCT THAT???
)
(sorry – got a little excited there, I made myself go crosseyed trying to find that, since I’m admittedly not the best statistician in the universe
By day, I go as XtreemIcon. By night, I go by Kreskin. Actually, most websites has that info on their stats link on the player page. There’s always a link somewhere for the splits, and position in the batting order is a very common split. I found that info on baseball-reference.com, but also corroborated it on espn.com.
Ah -the splits. I shoulda had a V8. The splits are my favorite toy on Baseball Reference when I’m bored. Thanks again for the tip, I appreciate it.
Anytime.
I dont know if everyone take this into consideration… But do we all remember “Whos on 1st” this year… Mookie Wilson, Mookie knows the feeling of having the blazing speed Reyes has so he will most likely be very aggressive on the base paths with Reyes. I think Reyes will have close to 50-60 SBs this year with Mookie guiding him @ 1st.
I totally forgot about Mookie being that speedster feedback guy – that could be an X factor for Reyes. It seemed to me that Reyes might have been a little cautious last year, but it seriously could have been b/c of lingering leg issues.
Yea he admited he played through alot of injuries in 2010 because of what happened in 2009. But we have some great coaches on the field as far as the combo of Mookie and Hale.
I Can’t wait to see Mookie work with Reyes/Pagan/Wright/Bay at 1st base this season.
If Reyes can stay healthy this year, the Mookie/Reyes combo will reack absolute havoc on any team that allows Reyes get on base.
Looking forward to Part Two.
If anyone can find the won loss record of the mets with and without reyes since 2008, i would appreciate it.
Let’s cut the c**p and see what this team actually did with and without him.
I’m asking for hard numbers, because my gut says it’s about .520 with and .440 without, but I really don’t know.
Seriously? It’s pretty easy to find I think, but let’s be fair here…saying the Mets went on a downward spiral in 2009 after all those injuries and even in 2010 without a fully stocked team most of the year was in spite or despite Reyes is not telling the whole story. Reyes is part of a TEAM that has wins-losses with players who have individual stats. I don’t think the team’s performance is going to tell us anything at all.
2009 had lots of injuries but a huge power drop off by our All-Star 3B. Reyes AND Beltran (whom I have stated here and other sites I believe to be the true “catalyst” on the team) both went down at roughly the same time, along with all those other things.
coop i know what you are saying, i really do, but to me it seems like reyes has been the on/off switch for this team. i agree that in 2009, it was tough to tell since everyone went down. last year though, my limited memory recalls the mets starting off slow, getting hot in may and june, and falling off the cliff right after the puerto rico series with florida. that coincided with reyes being out and rusty in april ( he missed spring training ), 100% in may and june, and getting the oblique injury in the series in puerto rico.
i know that it’s a 9 man game and a 25 man roster, but i can’t get
over how night and day this team was with and without him last year ( and to some extent in 2009 ).
that’s why I’d like to get some numbers on it, but i’m a bit too lazy to do it myself.
I think what might be a better indicator (although it’s one I don’t particularly “approve” so take it with a grain of salt – lol), is the whole “Reyes it the catalyst” – then SNY or whoever/whatever uses when he gets on base the difference in games won/games lost. This is usually used in the context of “As Reyes goes, so do the Mets” when the reality is, I see it as an abuse of the lies, damned lies and statistics (which I also freely admitted to using in crafting this column so take THAT with a grain of salt as well).
I see what you mean – I think mostly, it was the team breaking down all at the same time. I don’t think Reyes was as rusty as people would think, given his numbers there was a drop off in many things but he was out/hurt/thyroid FWIW. Then take into consideration Beltran’s return – his defense took a MAJOR hit with his overcompensating for the knee brace.
It’s a mangled thing — I think we’re on the same page with how Reyes impacts the team and how they perform with vs without him. I hope to get that out of the way in Part II (which should go up tomorrow morning, barring me getting drunk or something and forgetting to do it).
Here you go Mr Too Lazy.
2010 Mets Record overall: 79-83 .488/PCT
Reyes Team Record in Appearances: 65-68 .489/PCT
Reyes Team Record in Starts: 64-68 .485/PCT
Reyes Team record in non Appearances: 14-15 .483/PCT
baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reyesjo01&t=b&year=
2009 Mets Record overall: 70-92 .432/PCT
Reyes Team Record in Appearances: 19-17 .528/PCT
Reyes Team Record in Starts: 18-17 .514/PCT
Reyes Team record in non Appearances: 51-75 .405/PCT
baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=reyesjo01&t=b&year=2009
Stop making my work easier for me, Mr North J! This is some stuff that may repeat in Part II.
What can I say? Curiosity got the better of me.
;-0
Thanks for that.
I’ll call that myth ‘busted’. 2009 is striking, but there is Delgado, Beltran, Pagan, Maine, etc. in there also.
Unless of course i decide to carry on about statistics meaning nothing because i ‘saw it with my own eyes’ ( see Wright, David )
still have to look at big picture for such a small sample.
remember,. most of the games reyes missed where early, like April, and the short period of time that Frenchy and Barajas actually imitated valid hitters.
in essence, it took those 2 having abnormal output to offset missing Jose.
If Reyes can stay healthy (big if), I think he can return to close to the level offensively from 2006-2008 (though it would probably look more like his 2009 line where the power numbers suffered due to the tougher park). His OBP during those 4 years was .355, his BB% was 8.9%, and his wOBA was .358, making him one of the best hitting SS in baseball. He was also elite defensively from 2006-2008. So all that stuff about Reyes not being an Alderson/Moneyball type of player is wrong. Over the past three years his defense has been steadily declining to below average, and BB% sank to 5.1%, his lowest since 2005. Reyes might want a long term contract, so it would be unwise to invest so much money to a player who can’t stay healthy or might have seen his best days already.
I don’t think him being healthy is a big if. he has no chronic injury to worry about, so should be starting perfectly healthy.
he also had a healthy slugg% last year once he got going. Over the last 2.3 of his season (about 93 games) he hit 11 9a full season pace of ~20) with a slugging % in the upper .400 range. Only his OBP was really down last year.