15
2011
No Francis? No Problem: Why Young Is A Better Option For The Mets Than Francis
An article by 
LHP Jeff Francis has agreed to terms with the Kansas City Royals on a one-year deal, I say good riddance. The Mets are much better off going after Chris Young than Francis. Although both have had more than their share of injuries the past two seasons, there is much more upside to Young.
Even at a quick glance the stats show that Young is the more reliable, proven and overall better pitcher. Young has a career 48-34 record and a 3.80 ERA to match, while on the other hand, Francis has posted a career 4.77 ERA with a 55-50 record. Young has four seasons with an ERA under 4.0, Francis’ best season ERA-wise was a 4.16 in 2006. Without even going into the split stats and specifics, Young already looks to be a better direction.
While a great deal of the attention this off season, once Lee went to the Phillies, had been devoted to Francis, he is pretty overrated. The 30-year old southpaw had spent his entire career with the Colorado Rockies, an offensive powerhouse. Francis after missing all of 2009 due to shoulder surgery did not exactly dazzle in his 2010 return going 4-6 with an even 5.00. the When the Rockies scored 0-2 runs in a game, Francis was 1-25 with a 5.77 ERA. When the Rockies scored 3-5 runs, he was 18-20 with a 4.80 ERA. Given this fact, Francis would not have been a smart move for the Mets granted their inconsistent offense shown in 2010. If it wasn’t for the massive run support from the Rockies, Francis would have been at the level of a 6th starter this winter.
Young has been more under the radar, the perfect cheap option for the Mets. He missed nearly all of 2010 due to injury after just one start in April and would return in September for 3 starts finishing the year 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA. He has spent most of his big league career with the San Diego Padres, a ball club not known for having a stacked lineup. When Young’s team scored 0-2 runs, he is 7-18 with a 2.61 ERA. When his team scores 3-5 runs, Young is 13-9 with a 4.42 ERA. The ability to pitch well with little run support is an excellent quality to have, especially with the Mets streaky hitting. Unlike Francis, Young would be able to keep the Mets in the game when runs are scarce.
Francis signed a one-year $2 million base salary deal. Both Francis and Young had their options declined by their respective teams this winter. Alderson said that he will not pay more than $1.5 million for a starter. Francis does not fit into that payroll, but Young does.
If the Mets can sign Chris Young it would be an excellent cheap addition for the 5th starting spot until Santana returns. He would be a lower risk, lower salary and higher reward than the likes of Jeff Francis.
About the Author: Clayton Collier
Clayton, a Long Island native and die-hard Mets fan, started writing online about three years ago. He is currently a Journalism major with a minor in Broadcasting at Seton Hall University. Although very disappointed with the current state of the team, Clayton remains hopeful that the young prospects in the farm system will bring the Mets back to a respected franchise in baseball once again. Besides writing for MMO, Clayton is also a staff member at 89.5 WSOU, Seton Hall's modern active rock radio station. You can contact Clayton by following him on Twitter: @Clayton_Collier or E-mailing him at MaybeNextYearMets@yahoo.com
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 26 | 18 | .591 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 22 | .511 | 3.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 24 | .467 | 5.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 25 | .405 | 8.0 |
| Marlins | 13 | 32 | .289 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/21/2013
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I guess all that is left is for the Mets to sign Young and see what if anything Young does as a Met.
If you haven’t had access to Young’s medical reciords you don’t have a clue as to whether or not Young is good cheap alternative for the Mets. As for the rest of your article, its really filled with missing info to slant your bias toward Young. You boast Young’s recordrd and better ERA but you totally fail to recognize the difference in hitting in SD and Colorado. Only a miniiscule omission I presume. lol Then you further your fraud by ignoring the fact that Young has failed to make even 20 starts since 2007. So for three years this guy has been damaged goods and you don’t even mention it. By the way, how many damaged arms does it take for the Mets to have a perfect rotation. 2,3,4,5 ?? just wondering. There’s still John Maine out there. He pitched well just as recently as the great Young did. The cheapo mets can get him even cheaper than Young. That must make him the super perfect fit. Want some bogus “facts” to back it up?
If you would like some other stats look up the rest of Young vs. Francis’ splits. Young beats him in nearly every category. Young has a lower On Base Percentage against, one of the few statistics that is barely affected by the ballpark.
Career BA, OBP, SLG splits:
Young vs. righties: .219/.291/.371
Francis vs. righties: .288/.347/.465
Young vs. lefties: .227/.307/.372
Francis vs. lefties: .260/.317/.399
Francis is outpitched by Young in virtually every single one of these statistics here
Also, may I ask, when did Maine pitch well this season? I can only think of the 1 good start he had at citi field vs. the Dodgers and another against the Reds at the Great American Ball Park. Otherwise, he was 1-3 with a 6.13 ERA.
We don’t need Young the entire year, just until Santana gets back. He is cheaper and he is currently healthy, so his “medical records” are irrelevent as far as signing him to a one-year deal.
Young came back from him injury and showed he can still pitch successfully, Francis has failed to do that.
Would you rather have 1/2 the season of a guy who will post a 3.50 ERA who can pitch with limited offense or a guy who will post a 4.50-5.00 ERA who had been lucky enough to have a stacked offense to produce runs for him and has used it as a crutch his entire career.
Harry: Then you further your fraud by ignoring the fact that Young has failed to make even 20 starts since 2007.”
Collier: “Although both have had more than their share of injuries the past two seasons, there is much more upside to Young.”
_________________________________
Harry brings up a fair point of where the pitchers pitched so here are their career records on the road.
C. Young – 23/W 16/L 4.16/ERA 70/GS 379.0/IP
baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=youngch03&year=Career&t=p
J. Francis – 25/W 28/L 4.98/ERA 77/GS 454.0/IP
baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=francje01&year=Career&t=p
harry, i agree. i like young if he’s healthy also, but if he’s signed on tuesday and under the knife on friday, i don’t want him.
i’m sure the only offers he’s getting are low base, IP incentive laden deals.
if he pitched 200 innings, i’d be happy to shell out 10MM for him. 5MM for 150 innings.
The Mets have done a wonderful job of convincing the fan base that players like Chris Young and Capuano and Carrasco are worthy additions when in fact they were persona non grata by their original teams. The Mets have spent three months cultivating these undesirables but at the same time did a wonderful job of conditioning the fans and convincing them that these players were exactly what the team needed to contend. It’s a bunch of hogwash.
Me wanna brains…. uuug…..
What a silly post. At no time have I felt the front office is promoting these pitchers as anything other than stop gaps and adding inexpensive depth. Nobody has been “conditioned.” Do you really think Sandy Alderson is stupid enough to try to pull the wool over the eyes of sophisticated Mets fans, which you obviously are not one.
C’mon Tom, what about those big press conferences at Citi Field? Those autograph signings at Models? The 20 story mural of Boof on the Westside? The Fan Caravan? The seats next to Spike? The……
Great article Clayton. I agree with everything you said.
Although i would add one thing to that list. Sandy Alderson and Paul DePoestra (apologies for the misspelling), have a great relationship with Chris Young, so that helps the interest factor.
Thanks Brandon, I actually did not know that but given that they were with the Padres organization, that makes sense.
Thought i would let you of that!
It certainly is a comedown from the heady days of trying to decide which, or how many of the top shelf candidates we should be going after. Even last year there were lots of these kinds of guys hanging around and Omar paased preferring to count on Ollie again.
Marquis, Garland, Wolfe, Harden, Sheets, Penney, Bedard, Padilla, Duchscherer. Only Garland panned out, most likely due to his home field which is similar to ours. This year teams were scared off by looking at his medical records. I would bet we were one of those teams.
Last year Omar was still in his I can fix this thing with one more big signing mode and completely ignored the one guy who would have been perfect for us (as long as we improved the D at 2B) Joel Pinero signed for 2 years 16 Million in late January. A severe GB pitcher would have made it nearly impossible to hit HR’s against at home and wouldn’t have hurt on the road either. He walks very few and after two years with Dave Duncan really seems to have figured it out. He was a plan B so he wouldn’t even have cost a pick and he had no health issues like the others.
Starting pitching is so fickle but many people were calling for Pinero last year and there really is no good reason why we didn’t go after him. Maybe if we could ever provide some ready for prime time position players of our own we would have a little cash for starting pitching. 8 Mil a year for 2 years for a guy who pitched GREAT the year before seems like a pretty good deal to me.
Im sorry but what team won the World Series last year? The Giants. They weren’t a team based on big free agent signings. Just because a player doesn’t have the name Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford doesn’t mean they are a bum signing. The Giants star players like Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Buster Posey, Brian Wilson, etc. came up through the farm system.
Other major factors were players were the likes of Aubrey Huff, someone under the radar and considered a bum signing. He had a great season and now is a cornerstone of their offense.
They were the self proclaimed “island of misfit toys”, players like a Chris Capuano or a Chris Young who all had a great seasons and did something the Giants hadn’t seen in over 50 years, win a world series.
In fact, the only type-A free agent signings that were on the Giants staff was Bengie Molina and Barry Zito, both of whom did not end up on the Giants postseason roster. So unlike popular belief, signing the type-A free agent doesn’t always pay off, not to mention giving up cruical draft picks. sometimes these minor signings are the ones that end up paying off.
On the Mets staff, who were the biggest bright spots? R.A Dickey, Hisanori Takahashi, Mike Pelfrey, Ike Davis etc. The Farm system and unexpected under the radar signings who made a difference and earned a permanent spot onto the Mets staff. Who were the lower points? Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, Jason Bay, etc. Big front-end big money signings that not only cost us draft picks but have wrapped up a large chuck of the Mets payroll.
It is easy to spend $200 million on the top tier free agents, please the fans and create a championship team, but it creates real skill and talent to create a dynasty based on prospects and signing the R.A Dickey or the Hisanori Takahashi out there. Even though you guys would rather see a team like the Yankees, outbidding everyone for the best freeagents, become the Mets, I would rather see a team based on true homegrown talent and the breakout years from minor signings.
I don’t care where the guys come from, as long as the team is good.
I could not possibly agree more with you Clayton. You HAVE to develop your own position players and take a few years evaluating them while here. Extend some of them and let others go when you have other ready prospects and pick up two more amateurs. If we had had a LFer from our farm it would have saved us 95 million dollars and 1st and 2nd round pick over the last 4 years. Our own prospect at 2B would have saved 24 million and maybe we would finally have gotten our own RFer for a change.
SF developed 4 starting pitchers which allowed them to overcome a bad signing. If we had done that Ollie would have just been a footnote rather than a continuing source of aggravation and controversy. SF also didn’t lose 2 high draft choices which could have been Kyle Drabek and Mike Trout and blow 93 million in the process of obtaining a closer for a total of 5 years.
Add it up 95 24 and 93 million dollars. 212 Million dollars to fix 2 positions twice and 2B once and what did we wind up with? 13.4 more wins out of them (so far) then the average AAAA minor leaguer could have provided us with.
Is it really any wonder we’re picking off the scrap heap now?
The past few GMs have really messed up the Mets. Minaya did not believe in developing players in New York. We needed a GM like Sandy Alderson that won’t bend to the fans’ whims and sign the big free agent while compromising our future. I love the fact that Alderson doesn’t care about what the fans want, he will do what is best for the team.
If it wasn’t for trading away almost every half decent prospect weve had in the past decade we would’ve had Nelson Cruz, Scott Kazmir, Heath Bell among many others. A RF, a SP and a closer, something we have been dying to replace for years. imagine what the Mets could have been if they retained these guys?
And we could have drafted Hamels or Cain instead of Kazmir, Pedroia instead of Matthew Durkin, Brian Mccann or Jon Lester instead of signing David Weathers or drafted Mike Stanton instead of signing Alou or drafting Eddie Kunz.
The forfeiture of the #1 pick for Alou is just especially galling to me. We signed him on Nov 20th 2007 before SF even had to decide if they wanted to offer him arb. If we had just waited, played it cool and not been in such a rush we more than likely would have kept our pick because if SF didn’t think there was much of a market for a 40 year old LFer, they probably don’t offer it to him.
How can a team with as many holes to fill as we do every year just voluntarily hand over a #1 pick? And for a 40 year old OFer at that?
Mike Stanton was drafted in the 2nd round is 21 now, good RFer big arm 22 Hr’s in his first season and will cost next to nothing compared to the guys we keep bringing in here.
We did have a supplementary pick that year but instead of spending that on someone useful we drafted a college RELIEF PITCHER. I mean if they can’t start in college…..Ugh forget it.
I hated the Alou signing and basically we have had the players for most of the 2000′s but after Valentine left we havent had anyone even decent in our management or front office besdies Ricco.
Agee I believe you said that you are not a fan of Moneyball tactics but I thought you might like to hear how good our new VP of player development and scouting, Paul DePodesta is:
While the scouts were throwing out names for the 2001 draft, DePodesta sat in on the meeting, sitting in the corner with his computer looking at the stats of college and high school players. Here is a quote from “Moneyball” by Michael Lewis:
“Paul had said the scouts ought to go have a look at a college kid named Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis was a fat 3rd baseman who couldn’t run, throw or field. What was the point of going to see that? (Because, Paul would be able to say three months later, Kevin Youkilis has the 2nd highest on-base percentage in all of professional baseball, after Barry Bonds.)”
“Grady and his scouts had ignored Paul when he said they ought to check out a college pitcher named Kirk Saarloos. Sarloos was a short right-hander with an 88-MPH fastball. Why waste time on a short right-hander? (Because, Paul would be able to say less than a year later, Saarloos is one of the only two players from the 2001 draft pitching in the big leagues.)”
I am currently reading Moneyball and there is entire chapter devoted to how Alderson mentored Billy Beane and how he transformed the A’s franchise. I highly suggest reading Moneyball to fully grasp how solid our front office is.
I have Clayton, twice. Once when it first came out, and just again recently when it became a hot topic around here.
I do like the idea of “performance identifying” if I can coin a phrase (I’m sure it already has though) but I have really mixed thoughts about drafting for plate discipline. Turned out great with Youkliss but not only for that reason. Jeremy Brown was another story entirely. A player looking for the walk in college probably isn’t the best hitter. Worth a look? Sure, why not, but a #1 draft pick, especially with no one else onto him?
I’m pretty sure this was during the A’s theory of a good eye and the ability to not swing being innate or learned. I agree that it cannot be learned at the Major League level but I do feel very strongly that it IS a learned discipline and one that is a good part of what makes a great hitter, a great hitter.
I’d be more in favor of disqualifying college hitters who just don’t walk or limiting them to drive by scouting but I wouldn’t seek to only draft those who already have fully developed that skill.
Not swinging (if that’s what it takes to get promoted) can be taught in rookie and SS ball and reinforced all the way up to the Majors over the next 3, 4 or 5 years. If it’s a part of your environment, it will become a part of you.
I don’t think the A’s gave up too many trade secrets in that book anyway, the Yankees have been only targeting good eye, high OB hitters since Gene Michael was at the helm in the early to mid 90′s.
The whole making up in pieces what they lost in Giambi OB wise provides much better results anyway. Giambi was a guy you didn’t even care if you walked but chaining together your AB’s is what really turns your line up over, get MORE guys on, advances them with no risk and lowers the need for 3 hits down to one to get a run in.
The part of the deal I’m hesitant about is the lack of regard for defense and the love of the HR because of our home field. But I am certainly glad to see a new approach and am more than willing to support them as I did Omar for years.
Oh okay, im sorry I should’ve asked if you had read it before. Yea I was concerned about Alderson’s love for the homerun coming to arguably the biggest pitching ballpark in baseball.
The method of how Beane created a continuously successful club, up until recently, was letting guys like Giambi go and getting more 1st round picks.
The difference between the Mets and the A’s is that the Mets have the money to retain their star players. Whether Alderson would rather retain a Beltran, K-Rod or Reyes after 2011 or receive the 1st round picks remains to be seen.
As for the issue of whether plate discipline is learned or not; I think it depends on the player. I think Beane’s goal was to avoid drafting players like himself and Jeff Francoeur, those who were so promising and who had so much potential but simply couldn’t learn plate discipline.
I also agree that if you have some guy like Jeremy Brown, an under the radar prospect, shouldn’t be chosen so highly in the drafts.
I did not know about his lack of caring about defense but I think having Chip Hale on the staff will help that matter. Hale was the reason for the improved defense on the Mets staff in 2010.
Clayton was it more about positioning or just overall better talent with less Cora and Castillo and Davis at 1B?
I think it would be a mix of both but many of the players credited Hale with the improved defense and more “heads up” smart baseball that was played in 2010. I think that both the upgrades in defense at 1st, catcher, left field and patially 2nd base, and Hale combined for a much improved defensive season.
It was a very welcome change. 2009 was practically unwatchable.
indeed it was, for many more reasons than just defense. Everyone was injured and if whatever replacement starters hadn’t let the game get away, the lack luster offense, defense or bullpen would blow the game. Even though 2010 wasn’t a postseason team, it was a good building year after the disaster of 2009 and disappointments of the prior years.
Beane signed all those under-the-radar prospects partly because he didn’t have the money to sign the more heralded prospects.
The Mets already have a younger Jeff Francis…Jon Niese. That said Alderson needs to sign Young and get this over with or this post is moot.