20
2011
More Money In 2012? What Money?
An article by Craig Lerner
Adam Rubin grabbed an interesting quote from Mets COO Jeff Wilpon at a Mets-FDNY event today at beautiful, tropical Randall’s Island.
“I don’t think they realize the payroll is up in the $145 million or better range,” Wilpon said about casual observers. “I don’t think people realize that. Unfortunately, we were somewhat hamstrung by what had happened before. Sandy Alderson’s plan was to go and deal with it this year and make sure we have tremendous flexibility next year.”
Wilpon also applauded the front office’s performance and treated everyone to pina coladas and grilled mahi mahi afterward.
“I think Sandy and his staff have put together the best team we can to get on the field, and now it’s time to get out there and prove that we’re better than people think,”
Okay, let me get serious now…
Money, it’s a gas
Grab that cash with both hands
And make a stash. ~ Pink Floyd
It’s funny that Wilpon never mentioned this problem in which “we were hamstrung before” until now. In fact the day after the season ended, they refuted those claims saying that the “SNY network had record earnings” and that “the Madoff betrayal did not effect how we run the Mets”.
We all knew it was a problem and I’m glad they indirectly acknowledged it a little bit today.
That said, by the time all is said and done, we will once again be in the top five of payroll among all 30 MLB teams. So everyone please stop complaining that the Mets don’t spend or that they don’t spend enough, believe me, they spend plenty.
Here is my big concern and where I think the Mets are heading into trouble. There is this budding story that the Mets will have $60 million dollars to spend on free agents next season, but that whole idea is very flawed on so many levels.
Follow along with me please.
Lets take that $60 million (assuming that number is accurate) and first deduct raises for David Wright and Johan Santana which brings us down to $57 million. If we end up re-signing Jose Reyes you can expect him to earn at least $7 million dollars more annually in 2012. So far we haven’t signed any new players and $10 million has just vanished.
What happens if the $18 million dollar option on Francisco Rodriguez vests? The Mets can’t just stop using K-Rod in save opportunities to prevent it from vesting, it’s against the rules of the CBA and a grievance will cause the Mets to pay the $18 million dollars anyway, so stop ignoring the elephant in the corner.
So what do we have now, $32 million?
What about the 80% of our starting rotation who all become free agents or are expected to quadruple their salaries? I’m talking Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey, Chris Young and Chris Capuano. Pick any two names from that group and deduct $15-$20 million from our flexibility. (and even more if you want a third player from that group)
We’re down to $12 million.
Now go find a new center fielder (or right fielder), a backup catcher, two starting pitchers, a second baseman, three relievers, a whole new bench, and then get back to me.
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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Man that 18 million option on KRod just sucks the life right out of a person.
well, first of all, it is 17.5. 1/2 mill hear, 1/2 mill there, and pretty soon you are talking real money.
and for this exercise, it is 14mill not 18, since there is a 3.5mill buyout. So the net impact of K Rod coming back is 14mill (see how I just saved the team 4 mill?).
now lets see, bench, couple of relievers, back up catcher? Those are normally (for sure under Alderson) cheap roster spots. And since they are filled by guys already, there is NO net increase.
Basically, Craig needs to increase that 60 mill, since it did not include all the lower paid guys coming off the books (bench, relievers, etc) that will get replaced for roughly the same money.
Moving on here, 2B hopefully gets filled well this year, and should carry over or Havens takes over at minimum wage. And RF, remains to be seen, but I bet the plan/hope/prayer is one of the many corner OF bats takes over in RF. Cheap! CF is Pagan then.
Pelf and Dickey got big raises this year. Hard to tell what increase they get next year, but it will cost something.
If they do resign Reyes, than that is probably your big $ FA splurge. And there should be plenty of $ left to go after a top tier SP, the only other glaring need.
so IMO 60mill or so is plenty. Even if Reyes and K Rod are back, that is still close to $30 mill to spend (if you want) with only really a SP and potentially a RF to go after.
Unconfuse me. They already paid K-Rod the 3.5M this year? And it counts toward the 145M payroll this season?
If thats not the case, then what does net impact have to do with it as it still gets paid 17.5 next season anyway?
In otherwords you didnt just save 4M.
K Rod’s 2012 vesting option is 17.5 mill, but there is a 3.5 mill buyout if it is not exercised.
so essentially the Mets are paying him 3.5 mill for 1012, no matter what. That is a fixed cost against next years payroll.
so, it effectively only costs them an additional 14mill to have him actually pitch for the team (and conversely, that is what they will save if he pitches elsewhere)
may not even need to buy another starter if Mejia is ready for 2012. then you figure a rotation of Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Mejia. and THEN if Gee proves he is ready this year, we have a surplus of starters, which isn’t exactly a terrible thing. this is of course assuming we extend Dickey or resign him through free agency. If they let him walk, we could have something like Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Mejia, Gee, or you could always go out and get someone top notch but not incredibly expensive, like Edwin Jackson. Rotation of Santana, Jackson, Pelfrey, Niese, Mejia/Gee ain’t lookin too bad. I think the rotation will be the least of our worries in upcoming years, or at least 2012.
i think expecting dickey to be as good as he was last year in 2012 is a stretch. how often does a guy come in “off of the street” at 35 and put up 3 stellar years in a row.
if he does it, he’ll get his own book, Dickeyball.
Santana and Mejia — wow!
Where can I buy the rose-colored glasses? I think it’s just as probable we have neither for the bulk of the year. With Santana, press releases don’t make for quick rehabs, while Mejia is still so immature that his great fastball won’t carry him too far without some newly found control.
I hope you’re right, but ….
he is talking about 2012 at least, giving them both this season to get ready (helathy in Santana’s case).
Mejia might be more of a stretch, but we should learn a lot in 2011 about what he can do.
I agree. Sorry I jumped the gun on 2011.
Always, excellent analysis; but either way the Wilpon’s mindset lends itself to the cheap immediate, more lavish pushed into thevfuture mode here’s my way of examining the ongoing issue as I put it to some close friends thid morning, please excuse the extensive CAPSLOCK usage I prefer inmy personal correspondence;
GETING UNDER THE COVERS OF A FLAWED PLAN, MY PREDICTION IS MANY MORE HEAVILY BACKLOADED CONTRACTS IN AN ATTEMPT TO MAXIMIZE THE PRODUCTION ADDITION MINIMIZING THE PAYROLL ADDITION SIMULTANEOUSLY.
BASICLY IN A NUTSHELL I INTERPRET THIS TO MEAN THAT WHENEVER SANDY’S DONE THEY’LL REFER TO BEING HAMSTRUNG ONCE AGAIN BY OLDER PLAYERS MAKING MAX MONEY FOR DETERIORATED RETURNS ie BELTRAN NOW BEING 5 YRS OLDER THAN WHEN HE BEGAN AS A MET NOE WBEING PAID 185% OF HIS INITIAL SALARY AS A BROKEN PLAYER TODAY Vs A HEALTHY STUD TO BEGIN.
BELTRAN’S CONTRACTUAL REMUNERATION HAS BEEN:
05:$10M(28), 06:$12M(29), 07:$12M(30), 08:$18.5M(31, 09:$18.5M(32), 10:$18.5M(33), 11:$18.5M(34)
AGES ARE IN ()
CONSIDERING THE ACCEPTED RANGE FOR A BASEBALL PLAYER’S PRIME PRODUCTIVITY YEARS IS AGES 28 THROUGH 32, THE PAY/PRODUCTIVITY BALANCE ABOVE IS SKEWED TERRIBLY WRONG.
THIS WORKS BETTER ON A TEAM SUCH AS THE YANKEES WHERE DAILY RECEIPTS AREN’T AS HAEAVILY WEIGHTED. THIS METHODOLOGY FOR A TEAM IN A HUGE MARKET WITH HIGH EXPECTATIONS AMIDST OWNERSHIP’S MODERATE ASPIRATIONS IS CERTAINLY AKIN TO “HAMSTRINGING” YOURSELF WHILE PRAYING FOR A POSITIVE BOLT OF LIGHTNING!
I CERTAINLY HOPE SANDY ALDERSON IS MUCH MORE EFFECTIVE THAN OMAR MINAYA IN CONVINCING THE WILPONS TO INVEST IN THE FUTURE PRODUCTIVITY THIS TEAM WILL NEED TO STAY COMPETITIVE, GETTING INTO A MORE TYPICAL DRADFTING MODE, NOT AVOIDING SELECTION OF THE TOP PERFORMERS DUE TO PERCEIVED SIGNING DEMANDS.
ONLY BY ACQUIRING GOOD PRODUCTIVITY FROM LOW COST OPTIONS CAN THE METS EVER HOPE TO ESCAPE THIS DEATH SPIRAL OF CRIPPLING BACKLOADED CONTRACTS THAT ARE IMMOVABLE WHEN PRODUCTIVITY NATURALLY DECLINES DUE TO AGE OR INJURY.
JUST AS BACK IN ’86 THE BIGGEST PRODUCTIVE BOOSTS WERE FROM THE MOOKIES.DYKSTRAS,BACKMANS, STRAWBERRYS ON A DAY IN DAY OUT BASIS MUCH MORE THAN THE MORE EXPENSIVE IMPORTED TALENTS OF HERNANDEZ,CARTER,TUFFEL.
MOST LIKELY THE WILPONS CERTAINLY NEED CONVINCING THAST THEIR MINDSET WILL NOT TOLERATE A BATTLE FOR THE BACKPAGE aka YANKEE BUILDING MODEL; BUT WOULD BE BETTER SERVED WITH THE LESSER, BUT EFFECTIVE BOSTON MODEL ESPECIALLY IN THE NL EAST.
The new ownership will have this year to decide all of these decisions. I believe in this group,that by the august trade deadline they will now what direction they will go. The starting staff Mejia might be ready by August if not by 2012.What do they do with Reyes are they convinced in his abilities to give him multiyear contract? Will captain Kirk Niuewenhuis impress them enough that they see him as there Centerfielder for2012? I say we all just sit back enjoy cheering on these Mets.
Don’t be surprised to see Capt Kirk play or rather move to a corner OF spot in 2011. I don’t have the link in front of me but i recall talk of him eventually being moved possibly as he progresses through the farm system.
In any event don’t be surprised if Pagan winds up being 2012′s Opening day CF and who knows maybe possibly Duda in RF?
I could be wrong but I felt the “we were hamstrung before” was a reference to Omar’s terrible spending.
you can pretty much translate that to read Ollie and Luis there.
Yes, Wilpon was pretty much throwing Omar under the bus with the reference.
Edwin Jackson all the way.
The idea of the flexibility they talk about is to stagger big contracts, so you usually have at least 1 expire each off season, so you have money to reinvest if you have a hole to fill.
The other key component to maintaining flexibility is trying to blend at least 1 more rookie/young (read: cheap) guy into the core each year.
2010, Ike, Neise and the beginning of Thole.
2011, Thole becomes a regular (hopefully of course), and a 2B option steps up to stake down the job LT
2012, natural time for a young corner OF guy to step up and join the regulars. And hopefully a SP too.
you get the basic idea. Add 1 guy like this in a low pressure spot (hit bottom of the order) each year, and you build a sustainable core, as other guys develop into higher end players.
Then just grab a stud FA that fits a glaring need when the right situation appears, ideally in a year when a couple big deals expire.
I believe the Phillies 4 aces contracts are due to expire in a staggered method.
depending on Oswalts option (2012), he and Hamels both expire after 2012. But I don’t expect Oswalt to be back in 12, ut could be wrong.
you are correct that Lee is signed past when Halladay expires, and if hamels gets a LT deal, probably past lee.
This is big problem with how the Mets do business. Back loading contracts and never looking more than a season away. I hope they have a real plan over the course of the season. They may not suck but this team is pretty average. If Alderson can move money and get some young (cheap) guys they can control for a few years, I will jump on board. But so far, I think the plan is the same old thing. This would be a great time to get younger and develop some talent.
I may be stating the obvious- Minaya picked the players but Jeff Wilpon negotiated the contracts. Mets ownership has to do a better job of getting talent in the organization.
“Jeff Wilpon negotiated the contracts”
Really?
COO Jeff Wilpon stated specifically that He and his team negociated contracts. Unless he lied.
Which one is it? Either I’m not supposed to complain that a team in the biggest market in the league didn’t attempt to make an offer to the multiple cornerstone players on the market. Or I’m supposed to worry that the foolish smokescreen from the front office about having “flexibility” for next year has been a see through lie from the beginning.
it is not that complicated.
They have a budget (~145mill).
They have a large number of expensive cornerstone players already, courtesy of Omar.
therefore, they were not in the market for more super expensive guys this offseason.
Let’s not forget that the Wilpons lowered the 2010 budget by 10 million in last year’s off season. They kept saying that they would use the money in mid season. They said that the money gave them ‘flexability’.
They never used the money.
We are in the number one market in the US. We should be right behind the Yankees in payroll. Sure, the Wilpons are making money off SNY, they just don’t want to give it to the team.
They are the ones who put a stop on spending.
It wouldn’t have taken all that much to get an Ace and to fix the bullpen. This whole strategy of waiting for salaries to come off the books in a number one market means one thing – they don’t want to spend period.
I hope the empty seats gets their attention.
this was a tough year for the mets to get any big fish.
1) cliff lee. if the yanks couldn’t get him, what shot did we have ?
2) carl crawford. we already have a big name left fielder. ok he had a bad year, but he’s here to stay. ok, maybe we could have put him in center, moved beltran to right, and kept pagan as a fourth. but that’s completely unrealistic, especially for $160MM or whatever crawford got paid
3) jayson werth. i would be sick if we outbid the nats for him
4) zack grienke. the royals got a starter plus prosects for him. of this list, the only one we might have been able to swing, but it wasn’t really a money issue
5) adrian gonzalez. unlikely that we could outspend boston AND give up the prospects, plus we’re kind of invested in ike at first. i would have loved to see this one, but again, not likely.
Seeing what they do with Reyes will be the first true test of how willing these guys are to use this ‘flexibility’. If you look at the 2012 free agent class, he stands out as the one big name we need the most.
you make some good points
i don’t see what people were expecting us to do this winter, but jeez, a-gon would have been sweet.
i’d have traded ike in a second for him if he would have taken ‘beltran money’ for the next 6 years.
You’re right, tough year for us to get someone. But it’d be nice if the team tried. Why should we try as fans to support them if they won’t reciprocate. And then the lie about “flexibility.” For every person that says that the Mets spend since they have a high payroll, I respond clearly they ain’t spending enough. For every person that says spending doesn’t equal success, I respond it sure don’t hurt it either. What point is having a new stadium and exclusive tv deal if you aren’t going to wield those weapons in a league without a salary cap.
Agreed madd you should not support them if you don’t wish. Now that that’s settled you wanna talk about the weather?
that why I point to Reyes as the test. if they let him slip, they’re probably just looking to win cheaply. he’s easily in the top 5 free agents next year, probably 3rd.
there’s not much in the way of big names next year.
pujols and prince aren’t fits at 1B for 22+ MM per.
who’s left ? rickie weeks ?
It actually makes a lot of sense. I never thought or saw it that way but isn’t there some way we can use k-rod enough to were his 17.5 million option won’t vest so we won’t have to pay it ? After reading this my whole out look on 2012 changed because assuming Reyes has a good year he will want to re-sign and Wright will want an extension and it will be for a lot of money.
If the front office borrowed 4 million against next year and used 4 million this year to sign Takahashi then he could have taken some save opportunities away from K-Rod. He did a very good job last season.
So for this year invest 4 million to save 13.5 million (17.5 vesting option less the 4 million for Taka)
And get some starts out of it too.
That would of probably worked because your right Taka was very good last year. What about inserting him slowly into the closer spot this year and use his thumb injury as a reason to not give him the chances he needs to have his option vested.
Please keep in mind that the player union will be watching for any attempts to purposely try to keep KRod for vesting.
That should say from vesting not for vesting.
:] you guys got what I meant though. What if k-rod is doing good but were not contending and we trade him and have someone else deal with him ?
I would not rule out the Mets dealing KRod to a team needing a closer at the trading deadline with the Mets possibly agreeing to take on some of the costs if krod’s contract vests.
I can absolutely see that type of scenario.
I would be all for that.
Yeah I know they will have a close eye on him this year.
Well at the time when Omar signed K-Rod and Putz it was off the heels of the 2008 collapse with the bullpen being one of the reasons and I liked the move (so did many)..He addressed the issue and could have gambled the Mets would be in the playoffs in 2009 and possibly 2010 so the millions in revenue generated by 2 years of playoffs would have helped offset 17.5 million vesting option a bit.
Just a theory. We all know what happened in 2009 and 2010 so as it turns out it looks like a horrible move
Agreed
I actually agree with you on this Bayonne. In fact I think Minaya back-loaded some of these contracts like Bay last year as another example specifically hoping for the Mets possibly making a run into the post season in which he hoped fans would not then be as concerned at some of the contract structures.
he was doing the thing that plenty of Americans do. Buying stuff on credit, and hoping you find the money to pay for it when the bill came due.
I knew it Wilpon is a dolphin eater. I am not very concerned with what animal I consume but there is something about eating dolphin that I can’t wrap my mind around. This isn’t just me or they wouldn’t rename it MahiMahi lets be honest here your eating flipper. And that money could be better used on an arm or two rather than free dinners.
Nathan, Mahi-Mahi is also called Dolphin fish but is in no way related to the Dolphin. I have no idea why it got the same name but Dolphins aren’t even fish, their mammals, Dolphin fish are fish, no relation.
I caught one by the way in Maui, took about 45 minutes to bring him in, finally got ‘em on board, the crew of this catamaran I was on grabbed it and put it in the hold and seconds later he banged his way out and was making a break for it. They fileted him for me (keeping a large chunk for themselves) and that night we cooked him on the beach. Best fish I ever ate.
J. Wilpon’s taste in food is obviously better than his taste in ball players, perhaps he should be working in the shake shack, or even fileting fish for a living.
I was being sarcastic lol but yeah I don’t get out to fish as much as I’d like to. I live close to the big bend area of Florida so it’s kind of a big deal around here. I really don’t like jeff he just ticks me off and I was grasping at straws there lol.
Nice article by ESPN’s Mark Simon.
Here are a few excerpts.
“This will be the lowest potential payout that the Mets have put forth to free agents in an offseason since committing to only $8.6 million in potential payouts in the 1997-98 offseason. ”
“This year will end a streak of 12 straight offseasons in which the Mets signed at least one free agent to a contract with a total value of at least $10 million. ”
“It should be noted that one of the reasons for that trend ending is that none of the last four of those deals, given to Luis Castillo (4 years, $25 million), Oliver Perez (3 years, $36 million), Francisco Rodriguez (3 years, $37 million) and Jason Bay (4 years, $66 million, has worked out the way the Mets would have liked. ”
espn.go.com/blog/new-yorkmets/post/_/id/13552/its-rare-for-mets-to-be-this-frugal
The closing line to this article confuses me: “Now go find a new center fielder (or right fielder), a backup catcher, two starting pitchers, a second baseman, three relievers, a whole new bench, and then get back to me.”
Why should we have to go out and find all those guys for 2012? Is this year’s rebilidng all up in smoke after the 2011 season? If Beltran is done and we need a new CF, Pagan steps in. If we need a RF, shouldn’t we be looking to Duda or Nieuwehuis for 2012? Does Paulino die after this season? We are currently auditioning 6 SP’s plus Johan returns. Do they just go away? We just signed 3 relievers. We have a bench in place. Yes, these players are not on long term contracts. But do we really think resigning what we just put in place is out of the question? If they’re affordable this year, they should only be just as affordable next year even with some expansion of salaries to reflect hopefully good performance in 2011. I can’t get excited about what happens in 2012 if the 2011 season formula works within reason. Given the pieces that are in place are reasonbaly renewable, we should be able to find some ability to upgrade within reason.