7
2011
Garza Set To Go To Cubs – Now What?
An article by 
The deal seems to be in place where the Tampa Bay Rays would send Matt Garza, Fernando Perez and minor-league pitcher to the Cubs for Chris Archer, Hak-Ju Lee, Brandon Guyer, Sam Fuld and Robinson Chirinos. What does this mean for the Mets, and could they have swung a similar deal?
Garza is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a 6.6K/9. To get him, the Cubs sent their best pitching prospect (Chris Archer), their minor league offensive player of the year (Guyer) who plays all three OF positions, their sixth best prospect (Lee) an outfielder with MLB experience playing multiple OF positions (Fuld) and a converted infielder to catcher who hit 18 HR in the upper-minors (Chirnos.)
If the Mets were to attempt a similar deal, it would probably have been something along the lines of Jenrry Mejia, Lucas Duda, Fernando Martinez/Kirk Niewenhuis/Sean Ratliff and a lower-level arm from Double-A. What does that spell for the Mets?
The rights to arbitration with a pitcher who wears his emotions on his sleeve and can come undone in a flash for the best pitching prospect, the best upper-minors bat, a projectable outfielder and an arm that may or may not harness his potential. Its the kind of farm purging that may have been acceptable under other regimes – but wouldn’t be good for this Mets team.
As much as I love the Mets and wish they would trade for every great player dangling in the revolving trade door, this team is best off competing with what players they have now, because of all the Mets players I mentioned in a possible trade, everyone but Sean Ratliff has a shot at playing at Citi Field this year. Trading away the cream of the crop for one pitcher who is in Garza’s class (not elite, but good) is not a great idea for this Mets team.
Waiting on prospects can lose some of its value (Fernando Martinez is proof, a year or two ago he could’ve been the WHOLE trade) but to hedge bets to win this year, as the Cubs have done with this trade is too snap reaction.
Sometimes the best moves, are the ones you don’t make.
About the Author: Sean Kenny
Sean Kenny is a student/writer currently attending school at the City College of New York. For more Mets news, notes and thoughts follow him on twitter @TheSeanKenny
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Cubs have a lot of prospects still in the system. Lee was expendable because of Castro. Not ideal to have to trade a SS with as much range as Lee has but if your not developing your own Pitchers how else are you going to get one.
Archer hurts a little but there are still some possibilities down there.
In the OF the Cubs still have their Ball hawking power hitting CFer Brett Jackson in AA and Wellington Castillo at catcher so basically they gave up depth at 3 positions they have or will soon fill with graduates of the farm system (much more well rounded ones then Duda, Fern, Newenhaus) We don’t have that sort of depth to deal from.
All in all a big time gamble by the Cubs but at least it’s not gambling on older players staying healthy and while they dig themselves out of the spending abyss that we are sharing with them they have a good pitcher but the prospects that were lost today would be around when those horrendous contracts expire in a few years, will Garza? If he’s not bad move.
True, I still think its bad. Depth is never a bad thing. Castro could error his way out of shortstop. 27 errors isn’t great, unless your Hanley Ramirez putting up 20/50 or 30/20 lines. Catcher’s are a valuable commodity. The Angels horded catchers for years and now have learned that most of them do not come to fruition.
The Cubs really aren’t ready to compete as it is. These break the farm moves before having a solid foundation underneath you are as risky as they get. Realistically Zambranno continues his downward slide, Castro improves defensively a little every year and Castillo is 50/50 behind the plate part time with Soto and Jackson becomes a solid long term solution in CF but the dangers of counting on just one guy are well known around here and to do it in a year in which you cannot reasonably be expected to win is a very risky move to me.
Archer and the rest of them in a couple of years with the bad money off the books would have been a much saner strategy.
Is Minaya a consultant there? *giggles*
If Garza had been on injury rehab assignment last year I would have to say that must be it. Then again if Freid…..well, you know what I mean.
If the Cubs really are on a couple year purge and retool cycle (clearing out dead wood players and contracts), then they will be primed to compete right when Garza is abotu to hit FA. So, they either lose him or pay through the nose. Might as well just go FA if you are going to do that.
Love the Mets.
You really think a package of Jenrry Mejia, Lucas Duda, Fernando Martinez/Kirk Niewenhuis/Sean Ratliff and a lower-level arm from Double-A would do it?? I highly doubt it. The convo would have to start with Mejia, Ike and Neise. If you didnt offer 2 out of the 3 you’d get hung up on. F! cant stay healthy. Duda, doesnt project to play anywhere but DH( I hope its wrong but I digress) Ratliff has injury problems. Kirk is projected as a bench player. Until our farm has depth, all trades for proven players with talent will start at Mejia, Ike and Neise.
this makes no sense. the cubs traded only prospects, and not ones that were beating down the ML door. But you think the Mets have to trade a high end pitching prospect, along with what is now young, cheap established ML talent? Once you prove you have the talent to perform in the show, the price goes up.
Neise? You can slice the sabermetrics 8 ways from Sunday, but at best this is going to be a roughly lateral move in the ST, so why bother? Plus it costs 2-3 years of control, plus 5+mill/year right away.
Oh so Niese for Garza is a lateral move? Where do you saber kooks get this stuff?
comparing the numbers and their place on the time, it will not make the mets notably better next year to swap neise for garza in the rotation.
time was supposed to be team there. Oops.
Try Meijia, Harvey, Tejada and Flores. That’s the potential the Cubs gave up.
We should trade Matt Harvey to the phillies, so they can have the lee, Harvey, oswalt rotation.
That’s good Francis, that’s good.
Can’t trade Harvey, drafted this year. Have to wait a full year after draft. could only be a PTBNL
Who needs Garza when we have Boof Bonser? The last thing this team needs is a young pitcher who can give you 200 quality innings a season. The author of the post is right best move is to do nothing. As long as we continue to do nothing I predict great things for the Mets in this new moneyball era.
every team could use a good young pitcher. Or 2. sometimes 3.
problem is, they are in short supply, which is why they are so expensive to get (if you don’t grow your own).
who knows what if any contact Alderson had about Garza. maybe he made an offer they did not like. We don’t know.
silly to imply the mets don’t want or aren’t looking for pitching, and that they won’t continue to do so.
He had no contact about Garza! None, zero!!! Rubin and Klapisch just tweeted that Mets said they did not discuss Garza with Rays. Not surprising for this do-nothing front office.
Considering it would cost Mejia, Harvey, Flores, and Tejada to off set the Cubs offer all I can say is THANK GOD. This is exactly the kind of short term, high risk, damn the future the pressure’s on kind of move that we would have been regretting for the next 1/2 decade at least.
Mark my words, while the Cubs have their 3 more years of horrendous contracts to live through they’ll have Garza but what then? Pay him? Well until then I’m going to move my glass business to Wayland Ave.
This just in…Mets signed Chris Young.
Do you have a link for this? I don’t see it anywhere
The pitcher or the guy who beat up rihanna?
That’s Chris Brown.
The guy who was in the peanuts?
No, that’s Pigpen. Oh wait, you meant the bald kid?
The answer was Charley Brown
Yes, I know. I thought we were doing a bit. I guess I was a BIT mistaken.
MAN, I’m bored…….
At the cost of 4 young players? If Garza was signed to an extension, or moderately controllable, I’d agree. But even if he received arbitration raises this year of 6 million this year and 7-8 million next year, its paying to add a starter. At the cost of 5 years of every one of those players. trading 2 guaranteed years for roughly 20 years of player control.
BTW – it isn’t a Moneyball Era. its a “get 60 million worth of contracts off the books” era.
I like Matt Garza.
That being said, I am content. The Cubs overpaid and the Mets made a smart move by not giving up so much talent for Garza. This deal will probably bite the Cubs if those prospects pan out the way they can…but they’re prospects right now and that’s why we play the game.
Also, Garza’s fly-ball tendencies may not play the best in Wrigley.
Probably not, they are just gonna get a workhorse pitcher who’s ERA will probably work its way into the mid 4′s. Especially if his strikeouts don’t return to the 8 K/9 area.
Meh. The Cubs could have just signed Aaron Harang earlier this winter. They would have gotten the same pitcher for less dollars and saved all their top prospects.