Alderson Says Don’t Count Mets Out In 2011, Darling Disagrees

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• francis January 27, 2011 at 11:10 am

  LOL, outbidding Boston for Crawford, and paying him 17MM at 37 years old.

  Please.

  Things the Mets have going for them:

  Beltran and Reyes healthy and in walk years.

  K-Rod has a big money incentive

  Bay healthy.

  Ike, Pelfrey, and Thole a year older.

  No Jerry, Razor, or Hojo.

  Against:

  Bay, Dickey, and Pagan a year older

  No Johan

  All in all, I actually see the Mets can improve on last year. I’d say 84-78.

  However, if they trade Reyes by the break, forget it … 74-88 or so.
  • SFloridaMetsFan January 27, 2011 at 11:14 am

    I disagree with you on Dickey. I think he can be effective for another 3-5 years. He’s 35 and throws a knuckler. Neikro, Wakefield and a few others pitched well into their 40′s.
    • francis January 27, 2011 at 11:25 am

      sflorida, i don’t necessarily disagree with you about dickey, but i was trying to be unbiased as possible, and have to assume that he will regress a bit from last year.

      i think age is one variable, although less so for a knuckler, but I also think he took teams by surprise a bit last year, and that teams will be a little better prepared.

      lastly, i think dickey’s strength was the fact that he worked in a decent fastball amongst those knucklers. age will come into play there if he loses 2-3 mph on the fastball.
      • SFloridaMetsFan January 27, 2011 at 11:34 am

        You make valid points that I agree with. Dickey actually used a change up too. If he does regress a bit and puts up anything close to last year, he’s still the stud of the rotation.
  • Mr North Jersey January 27, 2011 at 11:48 am

    Can I play Devil’s advocate on some of your “Things the Mets have going for them”?

    1. Beltran and Reyes healthy and in walk years.
    - Can we truly say Beltran is healthy why he still is playing with a brace?

    2. K-Rod has a big money incentive.
    - Is him reaching that $17.5M option really a good thing then?
    • francis January 27, 2011 at 12:12 pm

      MNJ, i meant healthy relative to last year. Everything I mentioned should be viewed as relative to last year.

      As for K-rod, sure it’s a lot of money ( Jayson Werth / Barry Zito money ), but he should be allowed to earn it, and he probably won’t unless he converts most of his opportunities.
      • Mr North Jersey January 27, 2011 at 12:14 pm

        Fair enough. Thanks for replying.
  • Chris January 27, 2011 at 9:37 pm

    I don’t think age is really a factor for Pagan yet. He’ll play half the season at 29. He’s still in his prime. It’s actually probably better that he’s a year older. He’s in great shape and is prob the best pure athlete on the team he just has to stay healthy all year…..now if he could only hit right-handed.
    • stick January 27, 2011 at 9:42 pm

      well, given he missed chunks of time with injuries, and was a part time player at others, at least his legs have low miles onthem.

      Kind of like buying a 10 YO car with only 30,000 miles on it.
  • METS62FAN January 28, 2011 at 11:06 am

    Francis, check historic stats on knuckleball pitchers every one got better after age 34/35! It’s a unique phenomenon of the pitch, Tom Candiotti, Wilbur Wood, the Niekros, even Boston’s Wakefield blossomed more over the past 10 years since turning 35 so I would consider the uniqueness of having the ONLY dedicated knuckleball SP in the entire NL at a career adolescent 35 much more + than -! I too believe 84/85 Ws is within their capabilities.

    I’m also getting very tired of everybody’s highlighting Johan’s absence as a significan deterant. Santana’s best year as a Met was 16 victories. his absence is far from irreplacable on the field than most presume while it’s certainly a far stretch the singular past contibutions of Capuano’s ’05 season surpases, in my mind. Santana’s of ’07 in as much as,
    In 2007, Santana went 16-7 for an 88-74 team
    In 2005, Capuano went 18-11 for an 81-81 team.
    Santana is 32 yrs old & lefthanded
    Capuano is 33 yes old & lefthanded.
    Both are surgical returns.
    I WILL CONCEDE THAT SANTANA IS THE STRONGER WARRIOR/COMPETITOR.

    Capouano has a distinct advantage by drawing typically weaker mound opponents. Which may certainly favor his contibution level this season even should Johan return early(unlikely)
    It is my belief that the loss of Santana is being treated by the media/fans/soothsayers/prognosticators/guessers as equivilent to the loss of a Sabathia, Haladay or Lincicum which statisically is unfounded. When even an inadequate replacement starter might contibute 7 or 8 Ws over an entire season the overall loss is only the delta between what Johan can be penciled in for & what the replacement actually delivers.
    Over his 3 seasons as a Met Santana has contibuted 16,13 & 11 Ws sequentially, should the replacement supply 7 the actual loss felt will be more closely to 5-6Ws, not 15-16 as many are believing. Sorry about highlighting Emperor Johan’s nakedness; but it’s certainly no reason for despair!
    I’ve yet to see anyone point out that the Mets could actually give Reyes that 17-18M/y contract & still be cutting this year’s payroll by 11M by reassigning the Beltran accrued amount to Jose & saving the $ paid to both of them in overlap. The key is to not go overboard for a RFer to replace Pagan as he slides into CF, economically & effectively.
    • Mr North Jersey January 28, 2011 at 11:20 am

      Maybe you should go to a spa or something and take time to relax. Cause you seem to be getting tired a lot lately.

      1st it was you was tired about the whole Plate appearnce thing and now your getting tired of highlighting Johan’s absence as a deterent.

      Sounds like your getting ehausted.

      
    • Berbalerbs January 28, 2011 at 11:29 am

      Santana’s best year as a Met was 16 victories. his absence is far from irreplacable on the field

      Dude, really? You’re looking at wins/losses and deciding that Johan is “far from irreplaceable” and that Cap is anywhere NEAR comparable?

      You neglect to mention that in that 16 win season, he also lead the league in ERA and Innings Pitched, and was 2nd in the league in strikeouts.

      And good god man, I shouldn’t have to point out how many of Johan’s “losses” or no decisions were the result of having NO offense. How many times in the past 3 years have you watched Johan go 7 or 8 innings, give up 1 or 2 runs, and STILL not get the decision??

      Johan is a LEGIT ace. And just because I’ll bet you don’t like sabre stats:
      Cap’s 18-11 2005 Season: 107 ERA+ (league average for ERA+ is always 100)
      Johan’s 16-7 2008 Season: 161 ERA+
      • stick January 28, 2011 at 11:34 am

        “In september, capu got put back in the rotation, and for his first 5 starts, he averaged over 6 innings per start, with a 2.37 era. So he certainly looked like he was feeling OK”

        and that is a big reason why losing johan, while it will hurt, won’t necessarily lead to fewer wins. If say capuano (his replacement) can pitch like he did the end of last year, keeping the team in games, and the offense steps it back up, capu could easily replace the wins.

        now, it might keep the Mets from adding as many wins as they could, but it isn’t going to mean they win fewer games.
        • Berbalerbs January 28, 2011 at 12:20 pm

          I’m not saying the team will collapse in Johan’s absence, but Cap’s “A game” is comparable to Johan’s “Almost every single day game.”

          I mean, if Johan goes 6 and gives up 2 runs, we (maybe unfairly) get a little disappointed. So saying Cap did it for 5 starts at the end of last year, while encouraging, really doesn’t spell “adequate replacement” for me.

          And not to belabor the point (probably too late) but Cap has had an ERA under 4 once in his career, and since ’02, Johan hasn’t had an ERA above 3.50 (the closest he came was 3.33 in ’07).
          • METS62FAN January 29, 2011 at 10:24 am

            Berb, don’t get me wrong I don’t disagree with you and am not meaning to imply Capuano was ever as good; however my point of using Cappy was as an example of even an unremarkable pitcher could accomplish what Santana has given us, nothing more than refuting this unwarranted perception that Santana is virtually unreplacable.
            I’m sorry to inject reality here; but Johan for ALL his image & past success in Minn, in my opinion has been the greatest abject disappointment of the Minaya era. 2 seasons, 3 surgeries, 40Ws is NOT my opinion of an “OH CRAP!” pitcher, that being the sentiment of opposing teams learning he’s scheduled for an upcoming season.
            This erun Support issue is a lame excuse, as there has rarely been less staff runsupoport provided than that from this Franchise to it’s pitchers from ’62 throgh ’75 when not 1 100RBI season was ever recorded yet 16+ game winners were numerous.
            Hell, prior to the Mets’s first 100RBI season(Staub in ’75) Seaver was credited with more trhan Santana’s zenith 16Ws 8 timesevery single season he toed the rubber in front od a vewry aenimix offense Santana, with much more potential support has only accomplished that substandard for an ACE leervel only once in his 3 yrs.
            So, I’m sorry, I’m pasrticularly unmoved by this nonsupport excuse since I believe true winning pitchers win in spoite of their offense not solely because of it!

            I’ll concede Santana’s ERA has been extraordinary; however it obviously doen’t count towards winning games as strongly as I believe it should. ERA is an individual stat Wins is a key team stat, any ACE worthy of the title leasds his ‘team’ not his individuals. ERA looks nice on the back of his card, it’s sort of like Craig Swan’s pernial strikeout compilations placing him high on the Leagfue’s list, without the accompanyiong Ws totals it’s meaningless. it sort of reminds me of this pitcher’s season of:
            3.49ERA,193K, 17HR 81BB,32 GS 226.2 IP, 1.22WHIP being compared to this season:
            2.69ERA 200K 19HR,66BB, 32 GS,247.1 IP,1.10 WHIP
            both seem to be relatively close in many individual categories and represent 2 successive seasons from an iconic NYM LH SP, JERRY KOOSMAN.
            The first was 1976′s 21-10 season, tyhe second 1977′s 8-20 disaster.
            Berb, my point is that basicly without the prerequisiter Ws the rest don’t matter at ALL! 3 seasons of 16,13 & 11 Ws as the total compilation of Santana is unacceptable & highly disappointing from a socalled,sopaid ‘ACE’

            Wityh those levels of Wins, I fail to see the difficulty in replacing them.
            No, Capuano’s talent shouldn’t belong in the same sentence with Santana’s; but actually reality says it does and that’s unacceptabe to me.

            THE EMPEROR SANTANA IS BAREASSED NAKED! OPEN YOUR EYES & he’d not even on a golf course(low blow; but remarkably funny in a gallows humor sort of way)
      • METS62FAN January 29, 2011 at 11:15 am

        Berbs, here’s where we diverge; u hand Santana a pass because of;
        “How many times in the past 3 years have you watched Johan go 7 or 8 innings, give up 1 or 2 runs, and STILL not get the decision??”
        While, I’ve no clue to your age, Metfan experience, I can tellu that I’d easuily surmise that whatever number Santana had of those situations u can easily double it for Seaver; but somehow Seac=ver refularly managed to NOT SURRENDER THOSE 1 OR 2 RUNS TO DEFEAT merely insured he matched Carlton or Jenkins zero for zero.
        Actually, the one loss I agree to giving Johan a pat on the bacvk was the loss to Johnson when Murphy decided to be Vobby Flay & field with an iron pot inastead of leather glove. You may want to check the records & u’ll discover that HOFer Steve Carlton despite his dominance throughout his career strugled to a -.500 record vs. the then lowly Mets primarily because he most often matched against seaver, back in the days when rotations flexed to accomodate Ace V. Ace confriontations. Also a handsicap Seaver had to manahe througfh was his curios proclivity for surrendering early game runs he still had to post zeroes after. Aces rise to the occasion, What’s Santana’s record Vs. our biggest rivals ATL,PHL,NYY? dismal! Wjile opponents maintain they respect ghim, it’s relatively obvious few fear him, incl lowly Gnats. In three years, I can recall ONLY 2 signaturew ACE moments from him, last season’s openner Vs. Johnson & his final of ’08. Shoyuldn’t theer be more? How many leads has he surrendered, more than an above average Ace should ever do.I’ve only rasrely witnessed that EXTRA gear when his meager leasd is being threatened aces aren’t victims that many times. even if it’s only a miserable 1R lead, I’ll tell u batters wopuld’ve needed to come to the plate with actual bazookas to wrangle that run away from Seaver.
        Santana certainly swaggers like an ace, he puts up individual contibutory stats era,whip like an ace; however he still doesn’t determine his game’s outcomes like an ace. Don’t get me wrong, he’s truly a remarkable & excellent pitcher; just, in my opinion, not an elite one. Whether it’a age orthe accumulated injuries it’srelative ly obvious Johan’s days of outpitching the Haladays & ,Sabathias are in his rearview. When we acquired him he was considerd by many to be the best SP in MLB, tosday he’s barely in the yop 3 of LH SP.
• SFloridaMetsFan January 27, 2011 at 11:23 am

  I have to diagree with Darling as well in terms of Bay. The Mets didn’t have a “thumper” in the middle of their line up. They felt Bay was that power presence that could get them over thd hump. Crawford isn’t worth 142 million. He’s one injury away from being a below average player. Bay was EXACTLY what the Mets needed. Of course we all know it didn’t work out last year, but I really feel he will put up a .280/30/110 line and 15-20 steals with a .340-.360 OBP and solid defense. Do people forget that we have Reyes and a poor mans Crawford in Pagan? Let’s worry about beefing up the farm and not giving up draft picks! The offense will be great. And hopefully the pitching staff performs and keeps is in games. That’s all we need till Johan gets back whenever that is. And hopefully we get the old Johan, or at least close to the old Johan.
  • francis January 27, 2011 at 11:26 am

    i agree 100% sfla. bay is no worse than jayson werth at half the price.
    • SFloridaMetsFan January 27, 2011 at 11:37 am

      Don’t even get me started on Werth. That is the worst contract I’ve seen in a while. He’s so overrated and if he’s worth half his contract I’d be surprised. I died when I saw a 7/126 contract for a guy that was horrible away for the little league stadium in Philly. I think Werth made thd Nats a worse team. And the praise the Nats got from media outlets is laughable.
• Mr North Jersey January 27, 2011 at 12:06 pm

  The difference between Alderson and Darling is Alderson can’t say the Mets are a year away but Darling can.

  Personally I lean more toward Darling’s view of the Mets starting to turn things around.

  His quote saying “Panic or reactive spending has hurt the Mets for years.” Sounds a bit harsh but overall you can attribute that to signings like Castillo and Ollie I guess.
  • francis January 27, 2011 at 12:18 pm

    Of course you are right about sandy vs darling, but still I think the team should be better than last year, based on what I said above.

    That doesn’t mean that they aren’t a year away, so technically Darling is still right. I think they are better, but at least a year away from contending.

    As for what he said about Crawford, I think he’s falsely imagining a world where the Mets outbid Boston ( and NYY and LAA ) for him. Was n’t happening. Bay was a reasonable FA signing, despite his poor showing. Holliday was more possible than Crawford.
    • Mr North Jersey January 27, 2011 at 12:33 pm

      Yea I can see why you feel they will be better and you may be right.

      When I look at the team I can see both ends of the spectrum. The reasons why they may be better and the reasons why they may be worse. So I’m trying to stay away from predicting how they will do record wise cause i really just can’t tell at this time.

      I look at this year as a transition year so I am more focused on how well the team transitions. New GM New Manager New Philosophies. What will this Mets Organization look like at the end of this season compared to how they looked when the season started?
  • METS62FAN January 28, 2011 at 11:28 am

    Castillo & Ollie were pisspoor signings based upon hindsight more than forsight as 2 yrs is an inadequate amount of time to develop a 2B option that was obviously lacking in the system despite Minaya’s concentration on drafting middle infield types we’rew only recently hearing credable things about ie Tejada,Havens,Flores. Castillo had already spurned NY’s offer to play as an initial F/A opting for less $ to retr’n to FL., which possibbly explains the overage in time/$ offered

    Ollir Perez was obviously the Mets’ second choice & unfortunately for them the same uberagent represented both of their top choices, Perez & Lowe. attempting to outbid Atlanta’s successful 4/48M offer would have been just as unacceptable as Perez turned out to be.
    It’s certainly true that nearly every gamble that was taken during Minaya’s reign failed making bad luck the only kind of luck to be foyund in Blue&Orange. Fortunately Alderson’s gambles are not substantially make/break variety with long odds. they are far more educated gambles based upon statistical strengths not relying on repeated highpoints. players signed seemed to have been done so based more upon their usual production not their best production levels. A solid case can be made to support this roster’s winning 84-86 games, not 90+ based upon former top performances by many players simultaneously. I’m somewhat comforted in the continuity of the critics who similarly diiscounted Phl’s adding Werth/Victorino as the same people discounting Hairston/Emaus. Strong bastions are built out of bricks & mortar, we’ve upgraded the mortar holding our solid bricks in position just as the opponents that suprisingly out perform us have done these past few years.
    • Mr North Jersey January 28, 2011 at 11:35 am

      Are you a writer?

      “Strong bastions are built out of bricks & mortar, we’ve upgraded the mortar holding our solid bricks in position”

      That is just poetic. Seriously no joke your way with words at times is just fun to read.

      We had an author at my blog that had a similar way with words.
      • METS62FAN January 29, 2011 at 10:38 am

        Nrth, thanks; but stop it u’ll make me blush,lol
    • Berbalerbs January 28, 2011 at 11:43 am

      players signed seemed to have been done so based more upon their usual production not their best production levels.

      THIS. So well said. For serious, I think that’s the best explanation of Sandy’s fringe signings vs. Omar’s fringe signings I’ve seen, and I waste a LOT of time at work reading Mets blogs
      • t agee January 29, 2011 at 10:54 am

        Berb, well pointed out, Some very well thought out signings with not a lot of room in which to maneuver, all with upside in front of them rather than behind for a change. All playing for the big contract rather than coming here because of it.
• Bayonne Mets Fan January 27, 2011 at 12:31 pm

  I disagree with Darling here,

  In 2009 the Mets I think were tied for league lead in batting w/LA and had plenty of men on base but nobody was driving them in so that’s why Omar signed Bay.

  We need thumpers. We need RBI men, hopefully Bay will snap out of it this year much like Beltran did his 2nd year.
  • Mr North Jersey January 27, 2011 at 12:58 pm

    “hopefully Bay will snap out of it this year much like Beltran did his 2nd year.”

    Fingers crossed on that for sure.
  • Donal January 27, 2011 at 1:35 pm

    They were second in batting average and in grounding into double plays. They were in the bottom 5th in total bases and slugging.

    They had a bunch of old, slow guys slapping the ball. If Wright and Beltran can stay healthy and hit the way we know they can, that solves the slugging problem. Having Reyes and Pagan healthy and on base will help too.

    Still, way too much money for Bay. I think he really benefitted from hitting in Fenway.
    • Bayonne Mets Fan January 27, 2011 at 1:40 pm

      I knew somebody would somehow try and slip in the “on base” thing in to what i said.

      Doesn’t matter.

      If we had thumpers we would have scored more runs. We had plenty of men on base. End of story. Rationalize it anyway you want.

      I will admit that their own RBI guys were injured so…..but they’re still RBI guys.
      • Donal January 27, 2011 at 3:20 pm

        Dude, I was confirming what you said. They had guys on the paths, but there was not enough power to drive them in.
      • Berbalerbs January 27, 2011 at 3:40 pm

        Bay, he didn’t mention “on base” in that comment…anywhere.

        You complain that people bring up OBP on this site too much…you talk about it more than anyone BY FAR.
      • JerryG15 January 27, 2011 at 4:13 pm

        You are the one that has said many times, this team was filled with injuries, and I agree completely, but in 2009, while it was annoying to see off the men left on base, who was suppose to drive them in, the guy filling in the guy that got hurt filling in for the first guy? We had AA players out there.
        • Bayonne Mets Fan January 27, 2011 at 5:36 pm

          That’s why you need thumpers. Our Big boyss were hurt that year, i already said that. Read again.
          But bottom line.. if you want to win? You need RBI guys not the on base buys.

          The RBI guys are more important.
          • Mr North Jersey January 27, 2011 at 6:14 pm

            I agree as well with the idea you need guys that are adept at driving runs in. I figure if you have a player that drives 100 runs in a yr and can at least hit 25 hr’s you are on your way to buildin a solid lineup. Wait! We have just that type of run procer. David Wright.

            The RBI guys like Wright are important. I agree with Bay 100%
        • t agee January 27, 2011 at 6:19 pm

          We also had some older players running those bases and Razor, the year before had gotten a lot of guys cut down at the plate so maybe we were more conservative. We also had quite a few weaker hitters who don’t often allow a guy to score from 2B like Cora, Santos Castillo, Thole, Reed or Sullivan and Manuel must put the take sign on a fair amount cause 3-0 seemed to me anyway, to be an automatic take.
      • Chris January 27, 2011 at 10:10 pm

        holy geez Bayonne, “…and had plenty of men on base”. that is what YOU said. and in your very next post you say “I knew somebody would somehow try and slip in the “on base” thing in to what i said.

        my goodness am I taking crazy pills? You’re the one that friggin said it.
  • Pete January 27, 2011 at 10:02 pm

    Your a dreamer Bayonne, Bay sucks, and will continue to do so for three more seasons until his horrendous contract is over. Thanks Omar.
    • francis January 27, 2011 at 10:08 pm

      are you saying that bay always sucked, or that he turned into a pumpkin when he signed with the mets ( mo vaughn, jeff kent, robbie alomar, jeromy burnitz, OMG this list is long ).
      • Chris January 27, 2011 at 10:27 pm

        we got Vaughn at 35. he was just done. We have Bay for his age 31-34 seasons. can’t really compare. and Kent didn’t become great until AFTER he left the mets….but I see what you’re saying. The mets have a history of getting good players that magically forget how to play baseball. but it prob has more to do with always getting them past their primes, ala Alomar. Bay will be a Met in the latter years of his prime. We should view last year as an aberration for him and nothing more.

        bottom line is Jason Bay does not suck.
        • francis January 27, 2011 at 10:45 pm

          alomar and burnitz were also 34. i never realized just how ill advised those pickups were.

          henderson should have also been a bust at 40, but he was just so good that he wasn’t.

          i’m a bay fan, even his walkup music. and playing thru that concussion the day after took a pair.

          hope he proves all these haters wrong.
          • Bayonne Mets Fan January 27, 2011 at 11:06 pm

            ..and Alomar hit .336 w/20 HRs, 100 RBIs the year before he signed with Mets. Who would have guessed he’d fall off 70 points? I think anybody who’s says after the fact it was a bad signing is just purely SECOND GUESSING. No doubt.

            Including me…yes AFTER i saw him for awhile i didn’t like him but at the time we were signing a guy who just came of 3 straight .300+ seasons with the last one he had before joining the Mets being the highest of those 3.
    • Chris January 27, 2011 at 10:21 pm

      if you think Jason Bay sucks I would love to know what you think a good player’s numbers look like because he is 30/100/100 just about every year. man you have high standards. what do you need to not suck, 40/120/120? everyone just sucks I guess.
    • Mr North Jersey January 27, 2011 at 10:28 pm

      Sorry Pete. Bay had a bad year but to say he sucks is a big stretch. I think Bay was a good sign personally but I will admit his 1st year went about as bad as it could get.

      A 2011 from Bay that have him come close to his career averages and all will be forgiven. A repeat of last year and Bay better be careful where he shows his face or he may just get peppered with tomatoes.
• Deebo January 27, 2011 at 2:53 pm

  I just looked at the media session he did on the side with SNY and I have to say, not knowing the guy, he doesn’t take a real “family” approach with the Mets, which I thought was a criteria for being hired by the Wilpons, LOL. He kept it very professional (i.e., calling HoJo “Howard”, calling Ollie “Oliver”).

  I have to say I appreciate that. He also said that when it came to signing all of these guys who are injury risks that “a guy who pitched 250 innings” has a certain ampunt of risk associated with him and that he basically had to weigh the risks against the financial constraint.

  He sounds like he knows what he’s doing. I just hope it’s enough to look respectable this season.

  p.s.- If you go to the SNY webite and look for the 9 minute session (i’d link it, but I don’t know how), you’ll notice that Jay Horowitz is so far behind Alderson that he wouldn’t know if the guy said anything to the media. Definately a change.
  • francis January 27, 2011 at 10:11 pm

    jay horowitz should retire already. he’s had that job forever, and the mets pr is first class crap.

    what does he have on the wilpons ? madoff tapes ? rex ryan videos ?
• stick January 27, 2011 at 3:38 pm

  I will agree and disagree with Darling. But mostly, I need to know exactly what they are a year away from. .500? not sucking? being a viable playoff contender? being the class of the division?

  Like Francis, I think that overall, right now, they are a better team than last year. Assuming even league normal health, and guys performing at about their expected norms, and minus jerry, they should be worth ~ 10% more wins, so about 1 per month. Putting them at about 85 to 90 (90 being if the Karma gods finally give them a break, and things go right).

  Now, is that “arrived” for darling?

  the biggest issue I have with people thinking they will be also rans this year is, I don’t see a lot of improvement coming for 2012. Yes, money coming off the books, but what will they do with it? And if reyes leaves, they could end up being worse!

  Can they go get some good (and likely expensive) SP? Who exactly will be a FA? Are they going to break the bank for Prince?

  If not, then it will be the young core, but having to replace Beltran (and possibly reyes). Ideally there will be at least 1 young guy blended in (for the OF), but that doesn’t really put them ahead, does it?
  • t agee January 27, 2011 at 5:13 pm

    Agree completely Stick. At least our bench won’t all be DFA’d mid season this year. Reyes is the huge question mark for 2012. That and what if anything can Carlos leave behind. When it comes to free agency, your often times not happy with what’s out there. Better not to settle than make another huge mistake.
    • Chris January 28, 2011 at 12:06 am

      The real dilemma will be what if the Mets are in contention. you certainly can’t trade Beltran, and then we get nothing for him. I guess that is a good problem to have. would just be a shame to not get anything for him. Same with Reyes if sandy really has no intention of extending him. but at least we can get a couple of picks for him.
• alex January 27, 2011 at 4:16 pm

  everyone, the mets could suprise us this year i’d say they could be good this year if they stay healthy. people are just negative because of the past 4 years. The 2006 team’s starting pitching wasn’t very good at all but they won from offense,this team if reyes is healthy will have reyes and wright, not as good of a beltran but could still be good. A healthy bay and breakout year for davis will cause some serious damage on offense. (im not saying they will be as good as the 06 team but they could win 90)
  • francis January 27, 2011 at 11:11 pm

    they are also negative because their 2-5 starters are people that nobody had heard of last May.
    • stick January 27, 2011 at 11:29 pm

      well, young and capuano are pretty well known, having been around for a while. And any met fan should have been aware of Neise.

      I will concede that most people probably never heard of dickey, or if they heard the name, knew nothing about him!

      but this is this year, so they know of the guy with the 2.xx era last year.
  • Chris January 27, 2011 at 11:58 pm

    The ’06 Mets sure didn’t have a sexy rotation but they actually ended up giving up the third fewest runs in the league. I always thought it was their offense that carried them too but the pitching was surprisingly good compared to the rest of the league. Of course the stellar bullpen had a lot to do with that also.
• Jerry M January 27, 2011 at 11:44 pm

  This lineup one- eight is the best offensively Reyes,Pagan,Wright,Beltran,Bay,Davis,Thole and Daniel Murphy (hitting 20HRs)along with the pitchers who will not give up a lot of runs. If they all do their job we will get the WC and win 90 games. What pitcher on the other team would want to go through this lineup? They cant pitch around any one.
  • Chris January 27, 2011 at 11:52 pm

    I would switch Murph and Thole, and I think that’s the way it is gonna be (and I still think Eamus will get the job or at least split time with Murph). But you are right, there’s no one to really pitch around, save for Thole for obvious reasons. and for once there are no automatic outs. pleasant change from last year, with Ruben Tejadahelldoyouhitabaseball and barajas and blanco etc etc.
  • Bayonne Mets Fan January 28, 2011 at 12:45 am

    Daniel Murphy WILL NOT be starting at 2B. I can’t believe people actually believe this could happen

    - Could you imagine Murph running out and positioning himself for the cutoffs and doing the quick ball transfer you need for a quick throw to Home?
    - Or reacting quick enough to stop and throw out a trailing runner on the bases instead?
    - He had limited range at 1B, let alone for 2B?
    - Could you imagine Murph catching an errant throw by Reyes, leaping over a sliding runner at 2B ? firing to 1B anyway? I can’t.
    - What about running to 1B to take the throw when pitcher/first base have to charge the bunt? Is he fast enough to get there in time? I think not.

    I cannot imagine this guy as a starting second baseman! I can’t say I would be shocked if it did because I don’t believe it could happen!

    I think Murphy will make the team by upgrading our bench and filling in at several positions and pinch hitting.
    He should have spent time working in OF, and taking ground balls at 3B to help spell Wright.
    • Chris January 28, 2011 at 1:15 am

      A) Murphy had fantastic range at 1B.
      B) Have you seen him play 2B personally? because any scout and coach that saw him play said he looked fine there, so not really sure how you know better than them who actually saw him play.
      C) You’re worried about him running from his position at 2B to 1B on a bunt, but you want him to play the OF where he’s already shown he sucks, and run down fly balls in the corner and cut off balls in the gap?

      man o man. sorry he’s not hall-of-famer Ruben Tejada.
      • Des January 28, 2011 at 1:57 am

        As I said earlier tonight on another post, it Reese Havens is healthy, he’ll make folks forget Daniel Murphy and Ruben Tejada. As a complete ballplayer he’s far superior to either, especially Tejada.
        • Bayonne Mets Fan January 28, 2011 at 2:13 am

          Did Jerry Manuel fly coach or first class on that flight to Sacramento?
        • JerryG15 January 28, 2011 at 8:35 am

          As you said earlier tonight and every day since August. How much major league pitching has he seen?

          He may be very good, I don’t know, I’ve never seen him in the majors Then again, neither have you.

          Tejada belongs in the minors another year or so, he’s so young and it won’t hurt him, but I think that kid has a bright future and handled himself very well for 20 years old.
    • Des January 28, 2011 at 2:04 am

      Some of your comments are idiotic.

      “What about running to 1B to take the throw when pitcher/first base have to charge the bunt? Is he fast enough to get there in time? I think not.” FACT: He’s faster in a foot race than David Wright. That means he’s faster than the Ike Davis.

      “- He had limited range at 1B, let alone for 2B?”
      FACT: He had great range at 1B. Check out some of the analysis by Patrick Flood.
      http://www.patrickfloodblog.com/2010/02/coming-to-daniel-murphys-defense.html

      The fact that you can’t imagine it but others can says something about your analytic talent.
      • Chris January 28, 2011 at 2:15 am

        All of Bayonne’s comments are idiotic.
      • Bayonne Mets Fan January 28, 2011 at 2:25 am

        I think Keith Hernandez’ analysis of Murphy is good enough for me when he said on a telecast Murphy’s range was limited – don’t ask me to find a link to that broadcast – I’m sure other people heard it as well.

        For what I saw, I thought he was just there to catch a ball, terrible at scoops in the dirt, not the worst ever, i saw nothing special as far as range goes except that one circus play. His awkwardness is not imaginary as that ‘weak link’ suggests.

        His awkwardness means he’s not going to be any team’s regular first baseman anytime soon. He’s going to be a backup and do the same thing with any team he plays with – back up a 1B, and wherever the hell else he winds up playing – maybe even catcher one day!

        And as for Des taking his usual shot at Ike Davis.. you take that from where it comes and you don’t even acknowledge it with a response

        Des, you work at a Travel Agency? I think you’re better at filling out itineraries.
        • Chris January 28, 2011 at 2:49 am

          Keith Hernandez thinks every first baseman on earth not named Keith Hernandez sucks. I’ll take the actual numbers over Keith Hernandez’ analysis thanks. Daniel Murphy had the second best range in baseball of 1B with it at least 800 innings in ’09. Sorry Bayonne, numbers are better than your and Keith’s eyes. I know you like to think otherwise.
        • t agee January 28, 2011 at 8:46 am

          First base is a VERY difficult position to learn on the fly. I thought Murphy was more than credible in his range but that his awkwardness (good word) in the finer, more finese parts of the game would always hold him back at 1B.

          With a year under his belt he could have been a more than credible LFer. 2B, were gonna find out but I’m not all that optomistic but I am hoping.

          As I’ve said before I wish the Mets just would have gone ahead and made Murphy a catcher 1n 2007 rather than trying to jackass him in everywhere.
  • Mr North Jersey January 28, 2011 at 2:55 am

    i’m not sure why any1 is getting botherd at the suggestion regarding who is or is not playing 2b. Bottom line is “no one” knows who it will be . It may be Castillo, Emaus, Turner, Murphy, Valderspin, Tejada or someone we r not even thinking of. So relax let the process play out.
    • Chris January 28, 2011 at 4:09 am

      I think you can pretty much narrow that down to Castillo, Emaus, or Murphy. If it’s not one of those three I will be very surprised. Valdespin and Tejada are not in the major league picture, and Turner has options so I’m sure he’s just being viewed as depth.

      I really think it’s gonna be Emaus but that is just a prediction.
      • t agee January 28, 2011 at 8:47 am

        Turner does not have options. I’m wondering if Murphy has one left.
        • stick January 28, 2011 at 11:09 am

          murphy definitely does. And I thought after last year turner did not, but recently saw a few people (pros I think, not just commentors) saying that he did.
        • Chris January 28, 2011 at 12:43 pm

          pretty sure Rubin said he did. I could be wrong.
      • Mr North Jersey January 28, 2011 at 11:13 am

        I seem to recall a quote that Valdespin would indeed be in the mix as well and other than Tejada who they have admittedly said they expect to see him play ss down at AAA why would i eliminate any of these when the team publicly has yet to do so?

        The point is “no one” knows who will be the 2b yet.
    • stick January 28, 2011 at 11:12 am

      the ST competition is also the reason that I am not worried about murphy being able to handle 2B defensively. No one has (or is) just giving him the job. He will have to earn it on the field.

      if he can’t prove on the field, in games, during ST that he can handle the job, he won’t get it.

      also the reason Castillo will be in camp. If all the younger guys totally bomb out/get hurt, they will use him as a last resort.

      I am also on the Havens bandwagon. If he can get over his habit of muscle tweaks and stay on the field, he should be the future at 2B.