I say both Ike and Beltran finish around those numbers of 20-25 and 75-85

6 hr, 20 rbi (24/80 pace).
.295/.369/.504/.872

basically those are at or very close to his career numbers, even with the brace.

30 might be pushing it. 25, easy.

then again, it is entirely possible he does much of it for another team.

Otherwise I agree more or less with the predictions. Nice Piece!

40 is certainly reasonable. and plenty, especially if they are in high leverage (important) spots.

Philly, Atlanta and Florida had about 400 of them.

The loss of just one of our starting pitchers would leave behind a hole that I just don’t know how we would fill and would probably cause the bull pen to break down.

The loss of two position players could be even worse. It’s a tightrope we’re walking now because we just don’t have any margin of error.

The only true way to examine our competitors prospects in the future is with true impact players who will be there in their primes. Strasburg, Harper, Heyward, Freeman, Brown, Stanton, Zimmerman

We have addressed the same positions over and over again, usually with the oldest and most expensive option, to ever more diminishing returns while our competitors reload with guys that will be tormenting us for years to come.

Strasburg and Harper were beyond our reach but the others were drafted where we could have gotten them.

Second base has been filled adequately only a couple of times in 50 years. Boswell/Weiss, Millan, Backman/Teufel, Alfonzo, Valentin (for 100 games or so) Other guys were shipped out too early Vina, Veras, Relaford, Kent. Baerga, Alomar, Matsui, Castillo, when is it going to end? Valdespin, very spotty, Satin too old to be labeled a prospect, Tejada, not ready now and may never be or may be the SS, Havens, you can’t count on just one guy and a bunch of suspects. That’s not a plan, that’s a prayer.

The Red Sox drafted Dustin Pedroia with a 2nd round pick (65th overall) while drafting without a first rounder or a supplemental pick in June of 2004. We had two chances at drafting him. We chose Phillip Humber (3rd overall over Jeff Niemann) in the first round and Mathew Durkin (RHP bust)in the 2nd round 44th overall.

This is just one small example and everyone knows that the draft is a very hit and miss proposal but one thing everyone knows about the draft and that is hitters are much more of a sure thing than pitchers. Pitchers bust and washout FAR more frequently than hitters. If you have a team that has SO many problems filling everyday positions why aren’t you attempting to address those problems. 197 different right fielders in 50 years. 40 years of s**t at 2B out of 50. 3B is legendary until Wright (obtained by offering arb by the way to Hampton) LF, 3 expensive free agents and a rookie infielder over the last dozen years. SS, Reyes is the only good two way SS we have ever had in 50 years.

Getting back to Pedroia, if we had a type A AND a type B free agent to let go we would have had an extra 1st round pick and two supplemental picks and consequently 3 extra chances to draft Pedroia who would have made such a difference in the line up over the last 4 years it’s not even funny and certainly would have put us in the playoffs in 2007 AND 2008 AND given us an extra 24 million to spend elsewhere.

We spent most of 2003 and 2004 in salary dump mode for players no one else would give us anything for and now we find ourselves a few years later in exactly the same position because once again we went after the most expensive players possible at the end of their shelf life. We pay so much, get so little and at the end our mercenary’s just ride off into the sunset. They never leave behind a prospect or two. Vaughn, Burnitz, Alomar, Coleman, Bonilla, Delgado, Murray, Baerga, El Duque, Pedro, Alou. Even when we COULD get a couple (Wagner) we give them away. Too much trouble. Scouting, drafting not to mention signing, developing, who could be bothered with that crap. Scan the FA list in November and be done with it.

Free agents can make a really big difference to your team but without adding them to high impact graduates of your farm like Heyward and Pedroia, Stanton, Brown, Freeman, Zimmerman ect aren’t going to be able to make enough of a difference by themselves.

Draft for position players, spend the FA money on starting pitching that has already made it up here and LEARNED how to pitch and operates more independently than the everyday position players do. Re work your pen every year and have enough prospects to get an ace and fill in your bench and recucle a free agent every year in order to get a few more prospects. 197 RFers in 50 years WOW. The Yankees have had less than that going all the way back to 1900

The real difficulty though is getting these numbers out of ALL of them. Each one on it’s own is obtainable for the most part but collectively not realistic unless there is that one year where everything goes as well as it possibly can.

There is an awful lot of self interest on this years team. Much more so than in years past and you never know where the next lightning bolt may hit. Beltran and Reyes are playing for another contract. Not in and of itself a bad thing but impossible to say for sure how that will manifest itself into winning baseball games. It could very likely do that but there are downsides to that as well. Everyone who has ever played baseball can think of a selfish teammate who put the numbers ahead of the team. I’m not saying this is likely with these two but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities either. (since we’re talking about possibilities)

K-Rod is first and foremost interested in finishing 55 games. Not being called on to finish the game at Citi is what precipitated his “incident” last year. What happens and how does it effect the team when he doesn’t get the call to finish a game?

The Castillo and Perez situations haven’t resolved themselves yet.

There is no guarantee that Emaus/Murphy/Turner will be even average at 2B although I think they will but I also think there might be a couple of games lost by D at 2B and if Pelfrey and Dickey don’t have as much confidence on the mound in the D how will THAT affect their pitching?

I don’t think Bay is on for a GOOD year this year or the rest of his contract. I think he’ll be OK and that his D in LF at Citi will trend downward which won’t help Neise or Johan. Speaking of….

Will he be the same Johan? Unlikely in my opinion this year. Subsequent years probably 85-90% of what he has been since he got here.

Thole/Paulino will be decent but their not going to be difference makers but if they can just keep innings alive with their OB% and Emaus the same that will stretch the line up out considerably. The major difference in the 2006 and later Mets was that LaDuca and Valentin stretched the line up. Castillo would have except that his primary offensive weapon (the infield hit) is negated when runners are on base so he was only effective offensively with no one on. That’s not conducive to scoring runs.

A well conceived bench is vital. I cannot think of a manager who was more hamstrung by his bench than Jerry Manuel was the last couple of years, certainly not one who was considered to be a contender.

Capuano HAS to give us a first half of 10 – 12 quality starts and not wear out the pen.

Young pitchers are up and down. It’s just as likely Niese backslides as it is he takes a step forward. No one discusses his last month with anything other than “he was worn out.” Maybe it was something else. That possibility cannot be discounted.

K-Rod, Parnell, Accosta, Dessens? Bukholtz and the waiver wire.

Health is the biggest issue with this team. One starting pitcher goes down it’s gonna be ugly. Wright, Davis, Beltran or Reyes goes down, I don’t want to think about it.

All in all WAY too many if’s, hopefuly’s and maybe’s to expect anything but considering the horrendous luck we’ve had who knows. It would take a perfect storm but it’s not a flat out impossibility.