My 2011 Projections For Mets Starters

An article by posted on January 19, 2011

Now that the dust has settled, and the Mets rotation has taken shape, I decided to come up with some pre-season projections for the Mets rotation in 2011.

I also included early projections from the esteemed Bill James which you can always get at Fan Graphs, as well as projections from CBS Sportsline which is a combined effort from their staff.

Here you go:

My Final Thoughts

Bill James seems to believe Mike Pelfrey will regress this year and I do too. In fact I believe he will allow more baserunners, but keep his ERA respectable by inducing more double plays to get out of trouble, and trusting his defense more and let them do their job.

R.A. Dickey is where I completely disagree with James who has him pegged for a huge regression in 2011. I don’t see it. While I don’t believe he will be quite as good as last season, I still believe Dickey will lead the staff in ERA and win 17 games this season. Even as last season came to an end, the National League was still baffled by his knuckler and couldn’t figure him out. I expect that to continue in 2011.

Jonathon Niese is the most difficult to project. Essentially, last season was a solid rookie season for the young southpaw, but his last seven starts of the season were very discouraging. Was it fatigue or was it the league catching up to him? Probably a little of both, but that said my projection for Niese is not quite as rosy as James, but I hope I’m wrong.

Chris Young is going to be a pleasant surprise this season. I’m not expecting a repeat of what Dickey did last season, but a solid comeback season nonetheless. I do expect the Mets to handle him carefully as far as workload, but I also have him pegged for 24 starts this season.

Chris Capuano and Dillon Gee could both see time in the rotation as well as the bullpen. I expect Gee to fade back to the same type of numbers he was posting in the minors before his callup, which weren’t that good. Capuano will have a few shining moments peppered with a few bombs as well.

Those are my thoughts – What are yours?

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