19
2011
My 2011 Projections For Mets Starters
An article by Craig Lerner
Now that the dust has settled, and the Mets rotation has taken shape, I decided to come up with some pre-season projections for the Mets rotation in 2011.
I also included early projections from the esteemed Bill James which you can always get at Fan Graphs, as well as projections from CBS Sportsline which is a combined effort from their staff.
Here you go:
My Final Thoughts
Bill James seems to believe Mike Pelfrey will regress this year and I do too. In fact I believe he will allow more baserunners, but keep his ERA respectable by inducing more double plays to get out of trouble, and trusting his defense more and let them do their job.
R.A. Dickey is where I completely disagree with James who has him pegged for a huge regression in 2011. I don’t see it. While I don’t believe he will be quite as good as last season, I still believe Dickey will lead the staff in ERA and win 17 games this season. Even as last season came to an end, the National League was still baffled by his knuckler and couldn’t figure him out. I expect that to continue in 2011.
Jonathon Niese is the most difficult to project. Essentially, last season was a solid rookie season for the young southpaw, but his last seven starts of the season were very discouraging. Was it fatigue or was it the league catching up to him? Probably a little of both, but that said my projection for Niese is not quite as rosy as James, but I hope I’m wrong.
Chris Young is going to be a pleasant surprise this season. I’m not expecting a repeat of what Dickey did last season, but a solid comeback season nonetheless. I do expect the Mets to handle him carefully as far as workload, but I also have him pegged for 24 starts this season.
Chris Capuano and Dillon Gee could both see time in the rotation as well as the bullpen. I expect Gee to fade back to the same type of numbers he was posting in the minors before his callup, which weren’t that good. Capuano will have a few shining moments peppered with a few bombs as well.
Those are my thoughts – What are yours?
About the Author: Craig Lerner
I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 25 | 18 | .581 | - |
| Nationals | 23 | 21 | .523 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 21 | 23 | .477 | 4.5 |
| Mets | 17 | 24 | .415 | 7.0 |
| Marlins | 12 | 32 | .273 | 13.5 |
Last updated: 05/19/2013
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Looks great for a team in Pittsburgh
Will try to take that NYY philosophy of 10 AllStars(5 Cys) out of your consideration, how many times have we been beaten by much less than that group? not only us; nut in season those Yanks have also been woodsheded by similar starless workhorses; but remember our headliner is unavailable, yet still being paid hansomely.
Personally, I’m a very simple guy who believes Dickey & his “trick” pitch is totally underrated for these reasons. #1) a knuckleball is a singularity whereby like snowflakes each is a bit different from any other making it historically difficult to be on the receiving end of, be it batter or catcher. #2) there has NOT been a NL knuckleball SP since Tom Candiottie retired in 2000. #3) the premere hitters in the NL(PUJOLS,HOWARD,UTLEY,ROLLINS,FIELDER,UGGLA,ETC) all have debuted post 2000 & none of whom have any prolonged AL exposure where they may have encounterd a knuckleball pitcher with any regularity $4) Video study has become a central preparation tool for most ALL pro hitters & the unrepeatable flight of the pitch negates video as a means of predicting what a batter will be facing. #5) historically the most renowned knuckleball pitchers have experienced their highest effectiveness from age 35 through mid to late 40s, negating the Dickey age consideration. #6)of the 6 pitchers being considered their 2010 ERA/WHIP acheivements reflect Dickey’s are certainly lowest.(2.84 ERA, 1.19 WHIP)
Contrary to conventional wisdom; but for all of these aforementioned reasons I would choose Dickey as my #1 slotted starter until Santana returns because I believe ALL of those reasons support his liklihood of being the most likely candidate to match zeroes with the Halladays,Johnsons,Hudsons, the #1 is likely to be opposing early in the season Aptil 1 thru Johan’s guessed return of June 15.
While I an aware my suggestion is shockingly out of the box, I welcome anyone to counter my 6 points dilineated above. My preferred rotation order to commence this season would be
DICKEY
PELFREY
NIESE
YOUNG
CAPUANO
Divkey is equally effective with his ‘butterfly’ against both LHH & RHH.
Pelfrey through Cappy is a R/L a sequencing
62, I agree with your assessment and think it was too early to designate Pelf as the #1 when a good case can be made that Dickey is more likely to be the more reliable starter. Hopefully Pelf is a solid #2.
those cbs projections are crazy, four starters with an ERA in the 3s? that would be amazing. i do think that the two best eras will be held by young and dickey.
What concerns me is that Bill James predictions are notoriously optimistic. If he feels the staff will do that “well,” then it’s not a great sign. Also, Craig’s being very pessimistic about the bullpen. He’s got 43 losses from six starters, so realistically he’s expecting another 35 or so charged to the bullpen/spot starters. In 2007, a terrible year for the bullpen, which included 7 from Heilman, the bullpen only lost 21 decisions.
Thats why James gets the big bucks, lol. Plus he probably took two weeks to come up with his projections while I took less than an hour. But as for the 43, it’s not an exact science as you know, but I gave them 60 wins and 43 losses, as compared to 51 wins and 52 losses from James. 103 decisions from both of us with 59 yet to be decided. I was more willing to give the Mets the benefit of the doubt. I think Bill James is still ticked off about that whole Bill Buckner misunderstanding in 86.
and I took 5 minutes to come up with mine.
I can think of a lot more baseball executives who have had great runs with teams like Tampa Bay, Colorado during their miracle run, Yankees, Braves on and on and on who I would refer to as “esteemed” than that guy. Why is he esteemed?
Smells like a trap.
World Series Ring Totals:
Bill James: 2
Bayonne Mets Fan: 0
Time Magazine Most Influential Honors:
Bill James: 1
Bayonne Mets Fan: 0
Published Books:
Bill James: 4 (I think, not counting abstracts/handbooks)
Bayonne Mets Fan: 0
James is “esteemed” because he as the definition states, is “respected” in baseball.
Just because YOU don’t understand him doesn’t mean people in baseball do not respect him.
i actually like that, that’s good, lol.
if the jersey troll that spends so much time following me around everyday, being my shadow put that much effort into looking for a job to support his family instead of sitting on his pc, trolling people, collecting unemployment, the rest of us working folk, business owners supporting him with our tax dollars he just may amount to something – maybe even move his family out of a bad run-down neighborhood.
He’s infatuated with the wrong things.
Still refusing to speaking about baseball I see.
Sad indeed.
How about replying to my baseball points? I am here waiting anytime your ready.
You seem to know so much about me personally I dare to ask who is following who around?
Let me go look out my window and see if anyone is there be right back.
Here is a quote from Theo Epstein:
“When I asked our general manager, Theo Epstein, what he thought about James’ impact on the game, he said, “The thing that stands out for me is Bill’s humility. He was an outsider, self-publishing invisible truths about baseball while the Establishment ignored him. Now 25 years later, his ideas have become part of the foundation of baseball strategy. But where’s Bill? Where’s the gloating? Where’s the publicist? He’s like somebody outlining the Internet in the ’80s and watching silently as it comes to pass.”
time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1187260,00.html
Nice compliment I’d say.
Bayonne attacks that which he doesn’t understand. It’s repeated time and again. Then he digs a hole and only digs deeper.
…the esteemed Bill James – gotta run to the bathroom brb.
what is in your bathroom? dvds of the red sox championships won with the help of james?
a picture of justin bieber wearing an ike davis jersey ?
Why? Got to produce a few more of your arguments?
yes, that’s the way to do it for those like you who are into scat can understand me
You can knock his ideas, but at least give him his due respect for how much he has impacted the game. Whether you agree or not, he is esteemed.
impact the game? I think I would prefer to ask Ruben Amaro, Brian Cashman, John Schuerholz, etc., etc., for their advice then your clan leader James.
Those guys are esteemed, they actually have experience winning and SUSTAINED success.
You mean John Schuerholz who was the keynote speaker at this year’s SABR Convention?
Or Ruben Amaro who took over AFTER the Phillies won the World Series
Or Brian Cashman who has an unlimited budget and inherited a franchise that had won TWO World Series’ 3 years prior to him taking over?
Those are your examples? Really?
Yes.
You forgot the part about Cashman basically being a rubber stamp for the Steinbrenner family until this year.
i have no problem being a rubber stamp and a winner.
Even if means you are as useful to the team as the beer vendors?
Are basically saying that a good executive can do absolutely nothing for the team but enjoy the ride and still be a “winner”?
no, not saying that , i’m saying I wouldn’t mind being in Brian Cashman’s position anyday.
That being said, you’re calling Brian Cashman a do nothing?
Sounds like sour grapes from a Mets fan. He’s maintained a high level of success for many years but you don’t need me to tell you that – just put on your radio or TV anyday and hear it.
Are we forgetting that Cashman is a saberhead? That he hired a sabermetrician on the Yankees payroll?
I knew that was coming X – no he’s not a saber head but he used metrics to acquire Nick Swisher. I saw an interview when he said that.
Now they’re talking about trading him because he can’t perform in the playoffs – higher pressure. So much for that.
Are the Yankees talking about trading him, or the media? Big difference. And yes, Cashman is big into sabermetrics.
So is Girardi. Maybe a little overboard with it.
Girardi made a ridiculous comment later last season when writers called into question Jeter leading off despite having his worst season ever, and Girardi said soemthing like, “Well, his batting average might be low, but he’s still scoring a lot of runs….” It made me laugh, and a bunch of media outlets made jokes about it. I remember on saying something like, “198o called, they want their analysis back.”
Ya, he’s got that Big Book of Pitching Stats that he doesn’t seem to know how to use properly, yet. Credit for trying, though.
To his credit, he apparently understands leverage index. But his loogy-usage, aside from brief appearances from Marte, was outrageous. Hopefully for them, he understands Feliciano a bit better than Logan.
Cashman can’t even impact his own team. Today, he revealed that Hal Steinbrenner made the Soriano deal happen over his objections.
My predictions
Mike Pelfrey will do better than last year but not by a lot – still good. I say he’s above .500 by about 5-8 games.
Dickey will do the same as last year just more innings and a full season. His record may not be the same but I think his stats may be similar.
I think Niese improves over last year but again I’m not sure about his wins and losses because we don’t know if the lineup is healthy. Will Beltran play with a knee brace? Will he be healthy all year
I say either Capuano or Young surprises – not both.
I think Gee gets off to good start than comes back down to earth.
That’s it – take it for what it’s worth
Pretty optimistic. That’a a good sign.
actually yes, I kind of like our pitchers although it can be better.
I’m not high on Gee this year, not until he can get his changeup at leats 10 mph slower than his fastball and develop his curve a little more. His control isn’t bad, but secondary pitches need to be better than “ok” if his fastball’s only going to top out at 90. And I see no reason Capuano and Young can’t give everything expected of back-end starters if they stay healthy. I like Pelfrey this year. After putting up three months of All-Star numbers last year, he hit a wall and hit it hard. Old Pelfrey would have folded like a cheap tent, but he rode it out and had a pretty nice last two months. I hope this attributed to maturity.
I agree about Gee, I don’t see him as a true contender for the #5 spot. I see him as more of the ace of the Buffalo staff. Dickey is going to have another nice year. My pick for the big surprise pitcher of the year is Niese. If he can use his cutter and changeup more to set up his beautiful curve, he will have a much more effective year and will also most likely lead the team in K’s.
Stop using statistics, you nerd. Talk about grit, and heart and being clutch and all captainy.
Donal,
Pat Gillick – HOF GM – it’s 60% character/40 % ability. YES – grit, heart, clutch comes first in my book too.
YOU? don’t know who the hell you are, some guy at a keyboard i guess.
Did Gillick really say that? Then explain his decision to let Brett Myers pitch for his Phillies team the day after he was arraigned for domestic abuse.
Are you going to come up with some thoughts on your own, or just misquote other people?
Yes Gillick definitely said that.
“One thing that I think is very important is character,” Gillick said. “When I started out in this game, I thought it was 70 percent ability and 30 percent character, and the longer I’ve been in it, I think it’s 60 percent character and 40 percent ability. Because if you’re going to be out there through spring training and 162 games, you need people with character.”
nytimes.com/2010/12/07/sports/baseball/07hall.html
apparently, he didn’t mean it.
Nope your wrong the Phillies didnt win a W.S. because of ability they won because of character.
If Gillick said it it must be true.
Go ask every other GM to ever win a W.S. I’m sure they will agree as well that it’s more about Character than ability.
if the pitching staff plays out like you outline, they just need to offense to stay on the field and produce normally to be right in the WC hunt.
of course those numbers would need to be adjusted if the mets make wright a captain, his poor leadership skills =+.8 ERA for all starters.
the real interesting part will be what the starters in the other 27 games do (the ones not accounted for on this list).
I wouldn’t rule out Mejia for this year, if he’s not traded.
Or if Mejia is still slated to become a starter…
maybe, but not until the end of the year IMO. And by then, he may have run up against an innings limit (not that I know how the new FO feels about that). It seems reasonable that if he stays healthy and is over 150-160, they may not push him past that.
Bayonne,
I’d like you to explain to me how Ruben Amaro Jr. — a Gm who inherited a World Series winning team and has only had to ADD To it and has NOT won a World Series with an already established team full of superstars and a budget of over $100m
has “experience winning and SUSTAINED success.”
and yet you have consistently knocked Billy Beane who has had THREE under .500 seasons in the last TWELVE years? All while spending roughly $100million LESS than Ruben Amaro Jr.
The only other MLB teams to match that during the same time period are: NY Yankees, Boston Red Sox… and I think you know the payroll differences there don’t you?
Explain that to me please.
Ruben Amaro has been with the Phillies since 1998 and I prefer him to Billy Beane.
You remember you said in two or three years when the Phillies are saddled with all those terrible contracts Amaro gave out, after winning nothing with an inherited team that won a World Series.
This is the guy that, in order to pay a 32-year-old who already averages one DL stint per year around $25 mil till he’s 39, might have to trade Hamels away, a young lef-handed stud still under team control.
Yep, great GM.
It’s hard to criticize him right now.
Lee, Oswalt, Halladay, Hamels, Blanton.
..and that lineup.
Go ahead, criticize him and praise Sandy.
Can’t prasie Sandy yet. No on-field results to analyze. But it’s incredibly easy to criticize Amaro. Given the best team in the NL, he’s begun weakening it. He signed Howard to a deal that’s only marginally bit better than the Werth deal. There’s Ibanez. And there’s Utley’s contract. And there’s Lee, who will not only not produce anything NEAR his contract value, it might require Amaro to deal Hamels in order to pay for it.
Real easy to criticize Amaro. Real hard to criticize Sandy, with no results to critize or praise.
Bayonne,
So are you telling me that only having 3 losing teams in 12 years is not a significant achievement considering an average payroll of OVER $100m LESS than the only other 2 teams to do it? Do you hate stats so much that you cannot acknowledge that?
Also, I’m not sure when people started getting credit for a team’s success based on their status as Asst. GM? That’s the first time I have ever heard somebody give an Asst. GM credit over a GM with proven success.
The fact is in inherited a team that was already built to win a championship. There’s no denying it unless you’d like to mold information to fit your insane argument.
Has he made some good moves? Yeah, grabbing Lee from out from under everybody was big… but to say he’s had a greater impact on the sport than Bill James or Billy Beane is very, very dumb.
Bayonne Mets Fan: “Ruben Amaro has been with the Phillies since 1998″
“It’s hard to criticize him (Amaro) right now.
Lee, Oswalt, Halladay, Hamels, Blanton.
..and that lineup.”
So Amaro who has been with the Phillies as an asst GM since 1998. Who inherited a W.S. team when he bace the GM in Nov of 1998.
Is hard to criticize now because after 12 years in the Phillies Front Office he has Lee, Oswalt, Halladay, Hamels, Blanton.
But Alderson who has been at the job as the Mets GM for all of what 4 months? Is easy to criticize?
You can’t make this stuff up folks.
Not “bace” but rather “became”.
Sorry
I think you meant 2008 too
Inherited a WS team in 2008, I mean
True I meant 2008. I was never a good proof reader.