Dec
27
2010

Are Hernandez and Olerud Hall Worthy?

An article by Craig Lerner

Mark Simon of ESPN New York argues the case for voting former Mets Keith Hernandez and John Olerud into the Hall of Fame.

My vote is based partly on the eye test (which also allows me to vote for Jack Morris and Dale Murphy) and partly on the stat test (why I’ve also checked off Bert Blyleven and Tim Raines). I’ll admit to being biased. Hernandez and Olerud are my father’s two favorite Mets, so I’ve been subject to many lengthy discussions in which their virtues were extolled. I vote for both rather than just one because the two are baseball’s version of identical twins. Thus, if I think one is worthy, the other is as well.

He presents the evidence in their similarities:

Hernandez hit .296 in 17 major league seasons.
Olerud hit .295 in 17 major league seasons.

Hernandez walked a lot (11.2 percent of the time)
Olerud walked a lot (12.6 percent of the time)

Hernandez finished his career with a 128 OPS+
Olerud finished his career with a 128 OPS+
(both had an OPS 28 percent better than league average)

Hernandez age 24 to 33 :.305 BA, 134 OPS+
Olerud age 24 to 33: .307 BA, 136 OPS+

Hernandez rates first among first basemen in Total Zone Runs.
Olerud ranks third among first basemen in Total Zone Runs.
(Total Zone Runs is a defensive measure that ranks players with 500 or more games played at each position.)

In clutch situations, that is to say at-bats that could impact the game such as a tied or one-run game with men on base in the mid-to-late-innings, both first basemen score high especially during their Mets years as their Leverage Index would indicate.

Hernandez reached base 40.1 percent of the time for his career in such plate appearances, including on-base percentages of .422, .486, and .445 from 1984 to 1986, three pretty significant years in Mets history.

Olerud reached base 40.7 percent of the time and had an on-base percentage of .395 or better in all three of his season with the Mets (all of which were playoff-contending teams).

Simon writes that both of those rate as exceptional marks in the context of their eras (Hernandez slightly more-so, because most of his career came outside the steroid era and his primary ballparks favored pitchers).

Mark Simon is a heck of a researcher for ESPN and an avid Mets fan who digs up some of the most informative and telling statistics after any Mets related news hits the wire.

I happened to enjoy his piece today and while I’m not 100% sure he convinced me regarding the Hall of Fame candidacy of either Hernandez or Olerud, he did prove how similar these two players were and at the very least how each are certainly borderline candidates.

I think that eventually Keith Hernandez will get in because of the 11 Gold Gloves and his MVP, but he will still have a long wait ahead of him.

About the Author: Craig Lerner

I'm a data analyst and researcher for a leading news agency who loves life and is hooked on the Mets. I love following the Amateur Draft and have a particular fondness for the Mets Minor Leagues who I follow each day. Give me a cold beer, a summer day, and a Mets game, and I'm good to go.

35 Comments + Add Comment

johnny63 January 8, 2011 at 8:38 pm

11
t agee January 8, 2011 at 8:52 pm

The totality of Keith’s play, including the best glove at 1B ever, his high BA, OB and xtra base hits, leadership, Co-MVP numerous All-Star games (should have been more but the popularity of Rose and Garvey cost him some) and 2 world championships makes him a viable topic but I think he falls in at 85-90% of the Hall. Close but no mustache.
t agee January 8, 2011 at 9:02 pm

Oz wasn’t just the best defensive SS of all time (itself quite a distinction and at the most important defensive position on the field) He was not a no show on offense either. Ran the bases great, stole bases, walked a lot, struck out next to never, had 30-40 x base hits every year and was the glue behind a team that won a couple and got ripped off of another World Championship.
Matt January 8, 2011 at 9:08 pm

First base is a hitters position. SS is a defensive position. The shortstops who are in the hall of fame, generally, do not have great offensive production but are great defenders, whereas, the first baseman in the hall of fame are in their due, in large part, to their offensive feats. Hence, the reason Ozzie Smith, a soft-hitting, great defensive SS is in the HOF and Keith Hernandez, an average offensive, great defensive 1B is not.
Bayonne Mets Fan January 8, 2011 at 9:14 pm

Keith Hernandez was not an average offensive player
Matt January 8, 2011 at 10:01 pm

2182 hits, 162 HRs, career .296 avg, and .821 OPS.

When you say he was not an average offensive player…are you saying these numbers are above average or below average?
Bayonne Mets Fan January 8, 2011 at 10:19 pm

Not only am I gonna say above average but he offered a LOT more to his teams than just numbers. The man was a leader, he inspired winning, came up with big hits in HUGE spots time after time after time so it’s a LOT more than just numbers. That’s his legacy and everybody including his professional contemporaries know that.

Just a few fans in this new era like to just look at numbers and live and die by that. Very stupid.

Above average for sure.
t agee January 8, 2011 at 10:21 pm

Not sure what your inferring but these are pre steroid era stats. Maybe in comparison to some of the Giambi era stats they don’t look like much but there was nothing wrong with Keith’s game.
Matt January 8, 2011 at 10:24 pm

8-time gold glove winner as a second baseman…and he had 1 pretty special homerun. Comparable to Joe Namath being in the NFL HOF. Namath had a career completion percentage of 50.1% and threw 47 more interceptions than TDs. He is in the HOF because of the guarantee, Maz is in the HOF because of the HR versus the Yanks.
Matt January 8, 2011 at 10:26 pm

Never said anything was wrong with his game…I’m a fan of his and would be happy to see him in the HOF…but, baseball has always been a numbers-driven game, so I can understand why, due to his numbers as a first baseman, he is not in the HOF.
t agee January 8, 2011 at 10:29 pm

Well it was something that every single kid (that I know anyway) dreamed of doing millions of times and yet in over 100 years of World Series’ he was the only one ever.

Great World Series, Great upset. Pretty cool team too. They deserved it.
Bayonne Mets Fan January 8, 2011 at 10:31 pm

Right,
Due to his numbers he’s not in the HOF and I don’t have a problem with that but I don’t think he was an average hitter either. I think if you asked any of his contemporaries they’d say the same thing. There was nothing average about Keith, except maybe his speed, lol.

I always said if anything got him into the hall it would be as the greatest fielding first baseman of all time. And that can be argued.
t agee January 8, 2011 at 10:32 pm

I can too Matt. I feel he’s 10-15% short of the Hall but I would take a whole team of Keith Hernandez’s any day of the week.

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