NL East Report
Atlanta Braves: (62-46; Leader)
The Braves took two of three from the Mets and beat Tim Lincecum and the Giants last night. The Braves will continue their series with the Giants this weekend. The Braves will retire Tom Glavine’s number 47 tonight.
Philadelphia Phillies: (60-48; -2)
The Phillies placed Ryan Howard on the DL and haven’t missed a beat. They’ve won four in a row, including a sweep of the Florida Marlins.
Florida Marlins: (53-55; -9)
The Marlins have lost four in a row, and lost yesterday on a very disputed call by the third base umpire that decided the game. They get Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals tonight.
Washington Nationals: (48-61; -14.5)
The Nationals split with the Arizona Diamondbacks this weekend and get the Los Angeles Dodgers. Prospect Danny Espinosa was recently promoted to AAA.
Stat School With Sach C.:
Alright, so who’s heard of Component ERA, abbreviated as ERC? ERC is the pitchers equivalent of BABIP, a stat the measures how lucky or unlucky a batter is to have the average that he does. ERC is a stat that measures the ERA that a pitcher should have, based on the hits and walks that a pitcher gives up. The formula is rather long for me to post and dissect here, but you can find it on Wikipedia anyway.
An ERC higher than a pitcher’s ERA means that the pitcher has been lucky to not have given up more runs. An ERC lower than a pitcher’s ERA means that he’s been unlucky. This is also measured by the ERC%, or ERC divided by ERA. An ERC% above 1 is lucky, below 1 is unlucky. Lucky teams are more likely to regress, while unlucky teams are more likely to impove.
Keep an eye on this stat, because it will turn up again in a future column on this site.
So, who has been the luckiest team in the National League? Well, you may not believe me, but the luckiest team in the National League…is the Mets?
Okay, that’s true, but deceptive. The Mets are 11th in the NL in ERC (4.29), and 5th in ERA (3.80). That significant disparity adds up to a league-leading ratio of 1.13. So cheer up, Met fans, the stats say we should be a lot worse than we really are.
Here’s the rest of the division, and their league ranks in parenthesis:
Atlanta Braves: ERA 3.56 (4th); ERC 3.56 (2nd); ERC% 1.00 (T-8th)
Philadelphia Phillies: ERA 3.94 (6th); ERC 3.90 (7th); ERC% .99 (13th)
Florida Marlins: ERA 4.04 (9th); ERC 3.96 (8th); ERC% .98 (14th)
Washington Nationals: ERA 4.10 (10th); ERC 4.18 (10th); ERC% 1.02 (4th)
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