17
2010
Thoughts On Mets Latest Offensive Funk
An article by 
Two games into the second half, and the Mets have yet to cross home plate. So much for the triumphant return of Carlos Beltran.
I can certainly understand being shut out by the likes of Tim Lincecum., but Barry Zito too? We made him look like Sandy Koufax out there last night… Beltran thought otherwise, “We faced Cy Young yesterday, Cy Young today,” Carlos Beltran said after the game. “They know what they’re doing. At the same time, we feel as a team that we need to push a little bit harder.”
Push a little bit harder? Funny, I didn’t sense they were pushing at all.
Two solid starts from the backend of the rotation by Dickey and Niese, wasted. That’s baseball I guess. Mets baseball.
So what’s up with the offense that was supposed to be so vastly improved with the arrival of Beltran?
I got three big reasons… 1. Jose Reyes 2. Jose Reyes 3. Jose Reyes
Also, after a solid first half that featured Jeff Francoeur and Angel Pagan playing together nearly everyday, things sure weren’t clicking with only one of them out there in the last pair of games.
Pagan also made us realize Fracnoeur’s defensive value after he allowed a runner to take an extra base (who later scored), and then Pagan extended an inning by not making an easy throw to double up the runner at first base. Well, “easy” for Jeff Francoeur, the MLB leader in assists.
Francoeur, on the other hand, saved at least a run yesterday by perfectly executing on two very similar plays, plus saving a run when he cruised into the back of the infield to make an out of a would-be bloop single. Right field defense does matter, especially in one and two run games, as noted by Gary Cohen and Keith Hernandez during last night’s broadcast when they called Frenchy the best defensive right fielder in baseball.
Jason Bay… That name doesn’t quite have the same ring that it had in February and March. He was already soundly booed during the last two games of the last homestand, but unless he starts hitting on this west coast swing, it could mean the start of an ugly downward spiral when the Mets head back to Citi Field in a week and half. He hustles and plays hard everyday, which might be enough if you weren’t getting paid $66 million dollars, but unfortunately for him and the cash-deprived Mets, he is. Tick, tock, tick, tock…
Finally, we have our once heroic catcher, Rod Barajas, who has seemingly fallen off a cliff offensively. In May he led the Mets in homeruns, but he hasn’t homered since and his batting average has dropped over one-hundred points to an anemic .233. I don’t think the Mets can afford to carry three catchers for the rest of the season, and Henry Blanco would be a better platoon partner for Thole than R-Bar… I sense a trade coming.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
Went to my first Mets game, a Mayors Trophy game at Shea, in '73. We beat the Yankees 8-4 and I was hooked. I marched in two Banner Day parades, and before the Grand Slam single, there was the "Hendu Can Do" grand slam - I was there. I've collected Mets memorabilia all my life and started Mets Merized Online to feed my addiction.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 26 | 18 | .591 | - |
| Braves | 26 | 20 | .565 | 1.0 |
| Mets | 24 | 21 | .533 | 2.5 |
| Marlins | 24 | 21 | .533 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 23 | 23 | .500 | 4.0 |
Last updated: 05/25/2012
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Spot on Joe. The Mets are struggling offensively and wasting great pitching performances, something this team can’t do if they expect to compete for a playoff spot. Bay has me totally perplexed. It’s like 1982 with the George Foster acquisition. He came here and everyone expected 25/100/.280. He gave us 13/70/.247. Bay better find it fast. Because for all his hustle and defense, baseball is still a numbers game. And we need numbers from him…I’m getting impatient waiting for a “hot streak”. Jose Reyes being as fragile as a piece of fine crystal is killing this team right now. (prevention and recovery my arse) And I think that Francouer’s defense is missed when trying to prevent other teams from taking an extra base. Angel Pagan is a very good offensive player, but if he’s going to cost us runs with his defense, it’s going to be tough to keep him in the lineup, especially when we have the “best defensive RF in MLB”… That’s how small this teams’ margin of error for victory or defeat is. 1 run lost defensively makes the difference…unbelievable that this teams’ fate can rest so heavily on 1 player, but it does. David Wright might end up winning an MVP award, but Reyes may be the most important player on his own team…
mike lloyd,
jose reyes may not be the most important player on the team, HE IS!!!!!!!!
while other get the glory, the mvp chants, the commercials with “c” celebrities, he is the engine that makes our team runs.. w/o him, we saw what happened last year.. 70 wins!!! and 70 rbis for hall of famers” ugh
Never said he wasn’t Alex. Jose is my favorite Met. Jose makes this team’s offense go. End of story. No question.
mike,
i agree with u, just making it more clear
jesse p
i didnt say he’s the reason why this team lost 90 games last season, he wasnt the reason why they did, before 2009 from 2005-2008 jose reyes miss 14 games (btw mets 5-9 in those games), so idk what u mean by staying healthy, either way, is his own fault for trying to help the team out by playing hurt
Alex,
I love Reyes… again, he’s my favorite Met. But I find it funny how rah-rah you get about him when you knock people who do the same for David Wright. How come we don’t talk about Reyes’ unclutchness? Or how come you don’t knock him for not keeping his body healthy?
To say Reyes is the only reason the Mets won 70 games in 2009 is either insane or you have a man crush.
I absolutely believe Reyes is a huge reason when the Mets have success, but I also believe he needs to start taking care of his body AND playing a little better.
I know you poo-poo OBP but how come you don’t get all over Reyes for being the leadoff hitter and only getting on base 31% of the time?
You realize that’s really bad for a #1 hitter right?
The Mets would have to complete the frontal lobotomy on Jose Reyes to give him the maturity of David Wright. He lags most players by about three years when considering his chronological age. He’s a good kid, but he’s still a kid.
When you go position by position on the Mets, Reyes is one of the most gifted players. When you consider the support package: brains, baseball instinct, maturity, snd lack of sulking, Jose comes up short — he always has. He’s getting better at realizing what he must do, but there is more than a little bit of Yunel Escobar in him.
Guarantee: Jose Reyes will never be a baseball manager. Enough said!
i think people are loving reyes because they’re making the general conclusion that they win when he plays and lose when he doesn’t.
besides the crazy won loss that the mets have when he scores a run, it does seem that the mets fortunes have gone up and down with his health over the last 2 years. it’s hard to say how true it actually is, but i can’t see a better explanation. by that standard, reyes is the mvp over wright.
Pagan is a better defender than Francoeur. There’s a reason Pagan played CF (the tougher position) in Beltran’s absence and not Francoeur. Frenchy has a strong arm, one of the best in baseball, but his range just isn’t that good. He’s pretty slow. He also has a .693 OPS, embarrassing for a corner outfielder. Pagan’s arm isn’t as strong but his range is far superior (which is the most important trait for an outfielder). Angel should play everyday, lefty or no lefty on the mound. His defense is better, and his .832 OPS is much better.
That’s a .688 OPS for Frenchy, oops. Which, actually, is the lowest of any right fielder in MLB. Lastings Milledge has a .742 OPS.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=rf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2010&month=0
Don’t get me wrong James. I am no huge Frenchy guy, and offensively he’s just not very good. I’m a huge Angel Pagan guy. But when was the last time he played RF with any regularity? RF isin’t CF, and although Pagan’s played the more difficult of the 2 positions, it still will require some adjustments tracking balls on his part.
Pagan has played RF before. I agree that it might take a few games for him to get fully acclimated, but the difference in athleticism and range between the two players is still tough to ignore. Frenchy should only play against lefties on days when Beltran has the day off. Have Beltran play tonight and give him the day off tomorrow vs. the lefty. Any game that Pagan isn’t playing makes the team worse, it’s that simple.
You are correct. Pagan is definitely the better option, especially offensively. Especially with Jose hurting… Defensively, Pagan definitely has better range. I just want him to be just as good defensively in RF as he was in CF, but realizing of course, that he must get used to tracking balls in RF, and that may detract from the teams’ defense in the short term…
Pagan looks like he has better range because his stats include CF which naturally inflates a center fielders range. That’s why you don’t compare CF with LF or RF. If you had data showing he had better range than Francoeur as a CF, than your argument may have some steam otherwise it’s mute point. Offensively, there’s no question Pagan is better albeit in a small sample size. Pagan was not better than Francoeur in the second half of 2009. And he is better in the first half of 2010. That is all we know, and that is all we should use to a judgment call.
Pagan career as RF – RF/G 1.36
Franc career as RF – RF/G 2.04
FYI, range factor (RF/G) as a useful statistic has been debunked.
As for offense, OPS:
Pagan, 2010: .832
Francoeur, 2010: .688
Pagan, 2009: .837
Francoeur, 2009: .732
Pagan, career: .791
Francoeur, career: .738
FRANCOEUR as RF – Career 35.9 UZR
PAGAN as RF – Career 3.5 UZR
I think you are misunderstanding/misusing UZR. Feel free to shoot me an email if you have questions about it, I’m more than happy to discuss.
UZR is a counting stat, not a rate stat. Francoeur has played 6500+ more innings in right field than Pagan. This is like comparing a players RBI totals when one has 3000 at-bats and the other has 30.
Pagan’s career UZR/150 (which projects a player’s UZR over 1 full season) in right field is +15.8. Francoeur’s is +6.6. The sample size for Francoeur is big enough to draw meaningful conclusions. The sample for Pagan is not, but given his performance in center field, he is clearly the superior defender.
Pagan’s UZR minus positional adjustment for his career is +16.1. Francoeur’s is +0.6. This is probably the best judge of their overall defense.
Pagan > Francoeur, both statistically and to the naked eye. Unless you’re a totally biased Francoeur fanboy who has spent the last 12 months chiding people who like sabermetrics and saying we should sign Francoeur to an extension and he is a team leader and part of the fabric of the team and a future superstar. In that case, you can totally ignore the steaming pile of garbage his season has been while claiming that he is the best right fielder in baseball. LOL.
I didnt know it was a counting stat, thanks.
James, your a pisser…” Unless you’re a totally biased Francoeur fanboy who has spent the last 12 months chiding people who like sabermetrics and saying we should sign Francoeur to an extension and he is a team leader and part of the fabric of the team and a future superstar. In that case, you can totally ignore the steaming pile of garbage his season has been while claiming that he is the best right fielder in baseball.” I love it.
I’m not huge on sabermetrics, as I’m old school. I watch the player play and use the advanced metrics to get a better handle of what my eyes see. The stats totally support your assertion, and what I see with my eyes. Pagan is the better player, case closed….
Mike, it’s amazing how often our eyes line up with what statistics suggest. I wish more people would realize that. Apologies if that rant was over-the-top but I found it warranted given the discussion.
I’m not trying to come off as a Met-hating jerk here. I want this team to win as many games as possible, and to do that they need to play their best players. Jeff Francoeur simply is not a good player. It’s nothing personal, it’s just the way it is. If he had the .832 OPS and Pagan the .688 OPS I’d be saying the same things in support of Frenchy.
i’m pretty sure we could get church back for frenchy.
THAT DOESN’T MAKE THE FRENCHMAN SPECIAL… IT JUST MAKES RYAN CHURCH A STUMBLE BUM!!!
Let’s not get carried away. Soon you’ll be saying Frenchy in RF is on a par with the departed Shawn Green! LOL
Joe, now I have the rest of the day free to myself because you took all my blogging words right out of my mouth. I thank you. LOL Great post!!!
The fact that last night one of our three most recent hot hitters, David and Jose being the other, sitting in order to give at bats to two corner outfielders that are not hitting worth a lick just shows that at this time Jerry is more content with keeping players happy and not putting the best team out there. Tejada leading off? You have to be kidding me right? Mets have painted themselves into a corner first with carrying three catchers, not having an xtra infielder (until last night), and keeping Pagan on the bench. Bay and Francouer are the ones that need to be platooned cause until Jose returns Pagan is our best leadoff hitter not Tejada, Cora or whatever.
Jerry needs to make a decision by the end of this series cause Mets need the best lineup out there until Jose is back and Bay hitting 2nd did nothing for Mets or Bay. Hey maybe he can go down to AAA and find his hitting stroke, just thought out loud, and we can bring up F-Mart or Lucas who is hitting well or Captain Kirk.
I know this sounds extreme but maybe we can catch lighting in a bottle for a few weeks with one of these until Bay or Frenchy get their stroke back, oops that’s right, Bay has not found his stroke since opening day.
Watching the game last night was not comforting and when Giants scored that run I said, “Ok, game over.”
Beltran will be a good addition in lineup even though he is still finding his stroke but David, as shown the last two games, can’t continue to carry the team as he did in the 1st half, no player can. How many games have some of the great hitters looked bad in when they are expected to carry the load plus you do go thru slumps and David is just going through one while his fellow lineup hitters are still “finding their stroke.”
The upside of what could become a disastrous road trip? Jerry might be canned before coming back to Citi Field. At least I hope the Wilpons are ballsy enough to cut the cord on this guy this late in the season. I’m not wishing for the Mets to have a horrid trip but if it they can lose enough to cost Jerry his job yet still stay in the race, I’ll take it. Anything to get this guy out of here (and Omar too, if he doesn’t come up with anything on the trade front).
I’m afraid the Wilpons are too money-conscious to pay two managers at the same time. Pops
EVERY TIME YOU SAY SOMETHING IT IS ABOUT WILPON MONIES. I ASK YOU AGAIN ARE YOU FREDDYE’S BOOKKEEPER?OR PERHAPS YOU ARE IN THE WILL?
Off topic but kind of eery seeing Randolph and Peterson with Brewers last night at Braves game. Seems like Willie might get his next chance cause Brewers are not responding to Macha plus Fielder has 20 HR and just 39 RBI. Crazy huh, but Jerry getting canned will not make Bay hit or Barrajas into the hitter he wasn’t in April/May or Frenchy to be the hitter the Braves knew he wasn’t plus add youth to Pedro’s arm or control to Nieve’s pitches so players have to have some kind of pride that translates into hitting, running and getting on base like they need to.
I guess that the approach lately to not see a lot of pitches but swing at the first good one worked for awhile, the Frenchy approach, but unless you are getting on base, walking and working the count then you will continue to have a lack of base runners plus you allow the good pitcher to pitch deeper into games.
Is there anyone, players included, that exuded with confidence after seeing the lineup Manuel posted before last nights game? Manuel is a first class moron, and I cant believe you failed to mention him as one of the culprits in your blog. First of all, how do you give your worst offensive player Tejada, the most at-bats by putting him at leadoff! Then, Jason Bay who hasn’t hit a lick in over a month is batting second???? I would rather have Thole batting second because throughout hismajor and minor league career has proven to be a pure conract hitter and patient at the plate, a perfect number two. If Thole isnt playing then go with Beltran who has the same traits coupled with speed. We’re not going to go too far with this Angel/Francoeur platoon. Niether have done well with sporadic playing time. Move both of them for a better long term solution hopefully with more power than three Jason Bays. Get rid of Barajas. Omar is a jerk, who should have jumped when the Rangers came knocking for him and offered two prospects. Now that ship has sailed because they got Bengi (I hit for a cycle with a grand slam yesterday) Molina. Oy vey.
Obviously I have not spoken with Manuel. But common sense would suggest that when a team is struggling to score runs shacking up the lineup is not a bad option. Neither is it the worst idea in the world to move a player who is struggling offensively to the #2 position the lineup hoping that his bat will be “woken up”
after see better pitches to hit. The thinking here being:
Seeing better pitches to hit = more opportunities to get hits.
Not exactly rocket science for sure. You didn’t realize this?
As far as Tejda hitting lead off, Shrugs… same idea.
joe D
you should’ve stop at reyes, once again, i know is only 11 games or so were the mets have play w/o or not the reyes we accostum to, but it proves the value of him to this team, he makes average player be good, above average players become mvp candidates and with his defense makes pitchers wanna throw strikes coz they know he’s out there, while others get the glory, is OBVIOUS who the best player on this team is, w/o him team teams dont need stragedy, they know we’re beatable, with him, well, look at our record.. enough said.. for those idiots who wanna trade him, or those who wish to have tejeda/havens up the middle, take a look at what ur mets are offensively..
is funny also how beltran right away came out the gate with excuses “they good pitchers and know what they’re doing” really??? aren’t u guys profesional hitters too, who are supoose to knoe what u doing as well????? excuses, excuses, excuses….
I guess we all can have an opinion on how to manage the Mets as concerned fans, but we must realize that the team that was put together by the owners and management is very mediocre, we can’t expect any manager from the big leagues to turn a team this bad into a winning team…but give kudos to Jerry Manuel for his efforts in keeping the Mets at least trying to make a run for the wild card. He certainly had his work cut out since the beginning with the lack of pitching and a whole bunch of triple A players that are barely competing with a much better talented group of players from other teams. Besides management has not done anything at all to remedy these problems…this is a formula for failure and you all can see the results…LGM.
With the 3 games in Atlanta and these 2 in Frisco what has the run total been 4? I bet any Triple AAA team from any franchise would have done better. They actually charge a person the price of a ticket to watch this? The Mets would make P.T.Barnum proud!
To me Joe it is quite interesting that yesterdays heros are todays villians. The catcher who everyone loves is batting what he has done his entire life.The big first baseman was rushed he is around 240.Yesterdays shortstop is in the 220 range.The smiling Frenchman in right field is a streaky catoff of Cox. People ask why aren’t the Mets Hitting?Cora,the baseball mind I constantly hear about, should take his mental skills to the bench.The final blow is Reyes not playing!!Why aren’t the Mets hitting?dAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAhh.
baby al
no offense to you, but barajas wasnt brought here to hit, he was brought here for his game calling and he’s done a good job with the pitchers, now about ike davis, his defense has been a big help for us, he shuldnt be batting 4th, or 5th, mejia could be batting .220, but i rather have him than castillo on the field any day of the week, but nowhere in the top of the lineup, idk what manuel was thinking last night, cora sucks, francour is a defensive guy who cost a lot to ride the bench, is tough, but, w/o reyes, is when others, including the “mvp” candidate must step up and show they can do it by themselves, is good to be potm when reyes is on base and teams focus on him..
68, you make good points but what I am saying is Rod B was signed to catch & he is doing that… he never hits for average.RUBEN T. is a 20 year old kid who is just getting his feet wet. Davis is a fine prospect ..but he was rushed.I don’t want him to become Eddie Kranepool who was rushed to.The Frenchman is streaky & will kill a team like this that has no offensive idenity when Reyes is out.
Many were the expectation especially when Barrajas was hitting and Davis came up, had two great ESPN web gem moments, HR off J. Sanchez and a few clutch hits but he is a rookie people. I am thankful for his steady play at 1b that had been problamatic even when Delgado was here and I believe that he, Davis, is great player and he will adjust.
Yes the play of Davis, Barrajas, even Blanco, were inspiring but as pointed out Barrajas is what he is a streaky HR hitter that has a low OBP, nothing more and Davis has to now adjust as the league has adjusted to him.
I don’t think that a AAA would have done any better against the pitching the Mets faced the last week. The Braves are in 1st cause of pitching cause they don’t hit as are the Giants so this just happened to be the week that they out pitched us vs when we shut out the Yanks and then did so to Phillies so these things go in stretches.
I am hoping that when Jose does come back that Beltran will be more comfortable, Wright will start a new streak (oh by the way, he should be in the MVP race so far this season), Pagan will continue to impress and Davis and Bay will contribute the necessary power we need.
Our pitching has kept us in games and will do so until the hitting comes back I believe. LGM
Ah the eternal optimist? I am trying to get rid of Yugo-I think we can deal.
Remember the worst team that money could buy that had Mo Vaughn and Jeremy Burnitz? The reason I couldn’t stand that team, among other reasons, is that the lineup was filled with guys who seemed to strike out every other at-bat. Unless you are a 30 plus home run, 100 RBI guy, take your strikeouts and find another club but you can’t play on mine. I love Frenchy as much as the next guy who likes a good man in the clubhouse and his an excellent right fielder. But he is a disaster as an offensive player unless he is in a strict platoon and even then it’s dicey. He has no discipline and this is after how many years in the bigs and how many hitting coaches? The guy just doesn’t adjust. And when you add Barajas to the mix, it’s a disaster. When Castillo comes back and bats eighth, you’ll have little production from the sixth to nine spot in the lineup on the days Frenchy and Barajas are both in the lineup. At this point, I would rather play Francoeur to spell Bay rather than take the bat away from Pagan. And Thole should be platooning at catcher. The only reason why that’s tough is the stupidity of having a 25-man roster when a team carries 12 pitchers but that’s not the team’s fault.
Tom, I agree with your point about the current 6-9 batters when Castillo comes back. But just to correct you about history the official worst team that money could buy was the early 90′s team with Bonilla, Vince Coleman etc.I believe a book was penned about that horrible group of misfits.
Great post, Joe. As usual. This hits home for a lot of reasons: One, and most notably, because Ken Davidoff constantly tweets me to death with his Mets predictions of an 80-82 season. I really want that NOT to happen and two, because it appears that our team lacks the grit to come through adversity. Now either it’s “grit” or its a problem with talent. Good teams win tough games. Good teams battle in the late game and win. Good teams play good baseball, bunt, make catches, make contact in important spots, etc. If changes have to be made, its now or never!
Your article suggests there is an argument to be made equating Bay’s over-value to the team w/ Francouer’s defensive play.
There is no comparison between Bay and Francouer. Even to hint at some foggy notion that the two players can even be included in the same conversation regarding most valuable Mets is insulting to Jason Bay.
There is 2+ months left of the season. I still think Bay will end the year w/15-20 home runs, 90+ rbi, 90+ runs scored.
How much is 5+ years of .280 25-30 home runs, 100+ rbi’s, 90+ runs scored w/ consistent outfield play, strong work ethic worth to the Mets?
Answer: See Jason Bay’s contract.
The Mets paid for years of Jason Bay not just this year. He’ll be fine.
You are correct about Bay. People were feeling the same way about Beltran’s first year. He didn’t do well but when they brought another big bat (delgado) and when reyes came back from an injury, they made the playoffs. Hopefully it works out the same way for the second half of this year.
I hear all this Reyes talk and he is clearly missed. But he was missing earlier this year and the team went 9-1. Obviously they would not do that for a year if he was not in the lineup. My point is his being out may hamper the lineup but it does not explain a 1-0 and a 2-0 loss. Does Reyes have all the runs scored by this team this year? Of course not. The offense is capable of scoring a few runs without Jose. We have seen these funks before, many teams have them. The mets seem to have them a little more than good teams do.
Jdon what Reyes brings is energy….life…excitement…something these other players,FOR WHATEVER REASON HAVE A HARD TIME DISPLAYING.