8
2010
Mets Hype Machine Already Hard At Work
An article by 
It never ceases to amaze me how the Mets over-hype their prospects to no end. I’m not talking about your garden variety hype mind you, all teams are entitled and expected to hype their prospects. But with the Mets it’s completely over the top and it always leads to lofty unrealistic expectations for the prospects themselves who are mostly average at best.
Many of the fans buy into this PR hype “hook, line and sinker” and can be identified by comments such as “this guy is untouchable” or the ol’ ”we can’t drain our farm system” mantra whenever a trade proposal or even a rumor comes along.
Case in point was the news item from Ken Rosenthal the other day in which he reported that the Mets would not part with Ruben Tejada in a trade for one of the top starters in the National League, Roy Oswalt.
Ruben Tejada is an undrafted player who signed as an international free agent in 2007 at age 17. Now 20, he has compiled a career average of .274 in 1,594 plate appearances. He has no power as evidenced by his 11 homeruns in 3 1/2 seasons with the Mets organization. He has averaged 32 RBI and 47 runs scored per season. He is not ranked among Baseball America’s Top 200 prospects, and probably wouldn’t make an appearance in their Top 500 if they had one.
Roy Oswalt on the other hand… 148 W – 72 L to go with a .642 Winning Percentage, second best among all active pitchers in the Major Leagues with 250 or more starts. This season, Oswalt is lights out and sports a career best 1.11 WHIP to go with a 8.4 K/9 ratio, the highest since his rookie season. He is stuck on a bad Astros team and wants out.
If you were to exclude all Mets fans, what percentage of baseball fans would balk at the notion of trading Ruben Tejada for Roy Oswalt assuming that was an actual offer?
Getting back to the point of my post, yesterday, Matt Cerrone posted information he gleaned from his conference call with the Mets and reporters. Here is what Matt posted (in bold), followed by my comments.
He has a power arm, capable of throwing his fastball between 91 and 98 mph.
This is the first time 98mph has ever been included in Harvey’s range of velocity. which has been universally advertised as 91-96 and has reached 97 mph a few times. On occasion, some pitchers can hit a high number once or twice due to variations in radar guns which are less reliable in college than they are at the major league level, but that’s not even the case with Harvey. The fact is that he only touched 97 mph a few times this season according to Keith Law.
His curve ball sits in 80s, his change-up in the low 80s, and and his slider in the mid-80s.
He rarely uses his curve since adopting the slider which is still in the development stage. His changeup is far from a done deal and needs to be further developed if he expects to be a starting pitcher in the Majors, or else it’s the bullpen for Harvey. Most scouts believe he will end up being a power reliever.
He pitches off his fastball, but all of his pitches are usable.
Harvey has barely one plus pitch, and it’s his four seam fastball. Harvey struggled to throw any of his secondary pitches as well as he did when he was first discovered in high school where he impressed many scouts. Luckily, he has improved his offerings during his junior season at UNC, but they are still not nearly at the level that wowed so many experts in 2007.
He has good command and control for his age.
The knock on Harvey has been and still is his erratic control. During Harvey’s first two years with UNC he walked 89 batters in 142.2 innings and had 18 wild pitches. He got better in his last 14 starts leading up to the draft with 35 walks thanks to a new delivery, but he still had nine wild pitches in that span.
He was already very good in high school, but benefited from college coaching.
All players benefit from college, especially those who complete all four years instead of just three like Harvey did, who opted out in his junior year. His metrics from his three college years in total were not worthy of a first round selection, and he was drafted highly solely based on his elevated performance in his last ten starts. Keep your fingers crossed that he stays on his current course. Mets minor league coaches have a nasty habit of changing what worked for their draft picks and having them drop certain pitches, change release points and arm angles, and in some cases completely ditch their usual delivery.
He’s going to be a strike thrower, using both sides of the plate.
Harvey has shown great promise, but he is not a strike thrower, at least not yet. He will fool many college players and lower level minor leaguers with his current stuff, but players in the high minors and Major Leaguers won’t be so easily fooled as we all learned from Kevin Mulvey, Eddie Kunz and Bobby Parnell.
He is represented by Scott Boras.
Well at least they got this fact straight. Harvey was originally drafted in 2007, but at the request of Boras who could not get Harvey the big bonus he demanded from the Angels, he went to UNC and saw his stock plunge after very poor freshman and sophomore seasons. Luckily, he changed his delivery this season and it seemed to work better for him. Enter the Mets.
I don’t want to knock Matt Harvey who by many accounts is an excellent prospect with loads of potential. But lets just leave it at that…
There is no need to embellish his already noteworthy accomplishments. We did this with Brad Holt in 2008 and Steven Matz in 2009. Holt has struggled mightily since then and now has questions about his attitude, and Matz is already gone for the season with Tommy John surgery and there’s no telling if he will ever be close to the pitcher he was before the injury.
The worst part of this over-hyping is the enormous amount of pressure that is placed on the player to perform and play up to these unrealistic expectations.
Does Matt Harvey now try to over-exert himself to throw the 98mph four seamer in an attempt to justify what the Mets said he has?
Harvey was a bit of a reach at number seven and was ranked 13th in the draft by Baseball America and 20th by ESPN.com.
With advent of the internet and the social media boom, it’s so easy for the common fan to check out the claims a team makes about his players, so why say things that are counter to the real facts?
You drafted Harvey, well that’s great… Let’s all welcome him to the team and hope that he can stay healthy and reach his true potential, whatever that potential might be.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
Went to my first Mets game, a Mayors Trophy game at Shea, in '73. We beat the Yankees 8-4 and I was hooked. I marched in two Banner Day parades, and before the Grand Slam single, there was the "Hendu Can Do" grand slam - I was there. I've collected Mets memorabilia all my life and started Mets Merized Online to feed my addiction.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 26 | 18 | .591 | - |
| Braves | 26 | 20 | .565 | 1.0 |
| Mets | 24 | 21 | .533 | 2.5 |
| Marlins | 24 | 21 | .533 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 23 | 23 | .500 | 4.0 |
Last updated: 05/25/2012
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Write Your Own Mets Post
What would you have them say? That he projects as a middle reliever? Every team does this, not just the Mets. Yankees on their pick:
“We were able to draft a very athletic kid who can play a good shortstop,” said Damon Oppenheimer, Yankees Vice President of Amateur Scouting. “He has a plus arm, is a solid runner and is an excellent hitter. He’s a player we are happy to have. It was an easy decision for us.”
http://www.pinstripealley.com/2010/6/8/1506907/culver-controversial-no-1-draft
Rays:
Sale “is a corner outfielder with tremendous power,” Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison said. “He has a chance to be a middle-of-the-lineup-type bat. A kid that we’ve scouted for two years now. We feel good about him. He’s a solid makeup kid — tremendous work ethic. And a high school kid we think is advanced as far as his maturity level.”
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100607&content_id=10913726&vkey=news_tb&fext=.jsp&c_id=tb
Astros:
“You start with bloodlines, you start with his athleticism,” Heck said. “He’s a top-of-the-scale runner with a very good feel to steal bases and potential to be a leadoff hitter at the Major League level. He’s going to play as a center fielder and transition to second base, and I think with [Minor League baserunning instructor] Eric Young on this staff as well as his dad, who played second base in the big leagues, we feel very comfortable he has a chance to be a stronger profile as a second baseman.”
http://houston.astros.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100607&content_id=10912946&vkey=news_hou&fext=.jsp&c_id=hou
I’ll stop there, but you could literally go to every team’s MLB site and find quotes from the organization talking up their draft pick.
And I hope you don’t think the Astros would take Ruben Tejada for Roy Oswalt, straight-up. Tejada would be a throw-in alongside a top prospect or 2. That information is hardly worth even discussing.
There’s so many things to knock the Mets for, I don’t know why stuff like this needs to be fabricated.
I read the Yankees article and saw nothing that was fabricated. Dont have the time to read the others, but I’m sure they will be similar.
The Mets did fabricate if those are what was said in the conference call.
Harvey does not throw 98 mph, he does not have great control, and not all of his pitches are usable. Those are complete fabrications. Don’t shoot the messenger who only revealed what everyone suspected all along. (except you)
They could have said what those other teams said…
“The Mets are happy to have a talented pitcher like Harvey in the organization. He has the potential to be a good pitcher for us in the future.”
That’s what they should have said, but Omar Minaya is no Brian Cashman.
Much ado about nothing.
Most frightening thing – one site compared him to Brad Holt. Splendid.
Joe, once again you are spot on in pointing out what may not be so apparent to others. Like you said, Harvey is a solid prospect and lets hope he develops into a useful player for us. No need to make him out to be something he is not.
This is exactly the sort of thing the Mets have been guilty of for years. What you fail to mention is that over time the Mets are not only guilty of overhyping their prospects, but then they actually believe their own hype, which winds up making marginal prospects into the Mets most used word in their vocabulary, UNTOUCHABLE! Your Tejada analogy is a perfect example.
The worst part of this over-hyping is the enormous amount of pressure that is placed on the player to perform and play up to these unrealistic expectations.
Does Matt Harvey now try to over-exert himself to throw the 98mph four seamer in an attempt to justify what the Mets said he has?
Maybe that’s what landed Steve Matz on the operating table?
Parnell was not a top draft pick. I don’t think he is even in the same league with Harvey. But you are right. His rep is that he does not have command all the time. And, as Pelfrey has proved, you cannot be a 90% fastball guy in the major leagues. I wanted a hitter.
Maybe the Mets had Harvey come in for a private workout like they do in football and he did hit 98mph consistently on their radar guns and showed them great command. There could be things that happened that we dont know about and were not reported. As Mets fans we are supposed to give our team the benfit of the doubt.
You are right. As fans we don’t always know what is going on.
Great point Joe. And so true. When i read that last night i was very confused because everything i had heard about Harvey up until this point pointed to solid sinker, power arm, control/comman issues and no more curveball.
However, I dont think the Mets do this any more than any other team in similar instances….I think the Mets problem is that they refuse to take risks in the Drafts. They always make safe picks!
I do not believe in “too much hype” by an organization (of any type or trade), it is up to the individual reader, fan, employee, etc….to do their due dilligence and come to their own conclusions, not what the media says, not what the organization pumps up the player.
Any new product on the market (sports, technology etc…) is going to be hyped beyond the limits so people buy (in) to it.
I am responsible for what I believe, purchase or whatever.
If I’m behind something, I want it to be touted as the best ever……….even if………
I hope the irony of this article being published the same day as Living God has his first start for the Nats is not lost on anyone.
If an organization isn’t overhyping their prospects, they’re doing the team a disservice. When so much depends on trades, you have to convince the world every card you hold is an ace, simple as that.
The Mets just said he throws 91-98 instead of throwing 91-96. The hype machine is at it again!!!! it’s just 2mph lol.
When you think about it, can anyone have any confidence in the Omar and this organization drafts. We’ve produced Pelfrey and Davis lately and that’s about it. Even the guys we traded for Santana turned out to be mediocre. What bothers me about the Harvey pick is hearing from many sources that it was a reach and in a baseball draft this is no reason to reach. You just take the best available athlete (based on your scouts) and take your chances. By all accounts, Harvey was not the best available on the board and our track record doesn’t give me confidence that this was a cagey pick. And Boras on top of that? Why do I think something fishy is going on here?
It really depends on what you’re looking for out of a GM in the draft. The MLB draft your goal has to be to get these kids to the big leagues and stay there.
Omar has drafted Ike Davis, Joe Smith (136games), Daniel Murphy (200+ games), Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese in terms of guys who could or should be regular big leaguers. That’s 5 years of drafting.
A team like the Twins, a brilliant farm system and they always get credit for their development right?
Since 05 draft: Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing
I mean take a look around, who are you comparing Omar to when you say “can anyone have any confidence in the Omar and this organization drafts” That to me is blind omar hatred.
The MLB Draft is a crapshoot.
Are you saying: “Scott–talk Ollie into bowing out for a while and we will make Harvey a 7 pick.” Oooh, I love conspiracies.
I never made that connection, but wow. Imagine if there’s something to that?
By the way, Joe, nice job on this one!
Fellow Met fans,the game is as old as baseball. Over-hype your prospects, then trade them for something good. Anyone remmber the Santana trade?
Think about how you guys would be ripping them if all those guys they traded turned out to good. So far none have, that makes. the Mets big winners.
Yeah good post. I am not excited about this pick at all.
and trading tejada for pitching, in a heartbeat
So, Harvey is the next Kunz or Humber? Maybe…maybe not. He could be the ‘next’ Pelfrey (still a work-in-progress). Who does know? Kid has a 95+ mph fastball, no perceived arm issues, and is 21…not a bad ‘foundation’…even though i would’ve rather had Karsten Whitson (picked by SD 2 slots later)….but we shall see….
And Tejada is the next Melvin Mora. Okay, that’s not quite like saying he’s the next Albert Pujolz, but i do believe the kid will become a solid MLB regular…either with us or someone else. And before we anoint Havens the next Jeff Kent, let him be hitting round-trippers on a tear in July as he is currently. Tejada is still a kid, 21 in late October; he’ll add power as he matures. Havens is 3 years older, and i still say he’s an outfielder.
Are you saying he doesn’t have the skills needed to play 2B? Or are you implying he’ll be needed more in the outfield? Or something else?
P.S.: His arm at 2B is a plus arm, and his movement is better than Jeff Kent’s was.
Havens was a SS. So he probably has a SS arm. You cannot compare Harvey to Kunz-who was a reliever in college. As far as Humber was concerned, he was probably overused in college. The mets seem to be attracted to prospects who are injury prone, going all the way back to Steve Chilcott, right up to Matz last year, an 18 year old Tommy Johner. It is probably more luck than incompetence, but it is weird.
i may be wrong; his body type looks too big for 2B; he made a ton of errors last year at SS, although i notice his ‘E’s are way down this year. His bat has come around big time. Is it sustainable? i just like Tejada as the more proto-typical 2B guy, and ‘T’ is still so young and improving. Havens looks more like an outfielder to me.
i hope they both succeed to be with us or be trade-chips.