8
2010
John Maine and His Decaying Arm
An article by 
The title may have been a little bit misleading, but its honestly how i feel. When the Mets first received Maine in the trade for Anna, i mean..Kris Benson we received a hard-throwing prospect with the potential to be a #3 starter with the refining of a slider. His rising fastball, providing hope to anyone who watched it crash into the catchers mitt routinely around 95-96 MPH. Those days are long gone, my friends.
Since that 2006 season, Maine’s velocity has steadily decreased year-to-year – but why? Sometimes a pitcher will sacrifice a few miles for some control – but this isn’t the case with John Maine. His walk rates have increased, from 3.53 in 2007, his first full year as a Met to 4.20 in his shortened 2009. Maine’s inability to stay healthy specifically with shoulder injures has also tanked the majority of trade value that he would have accrued. In 2009, he was pitching around 92-93 MPH but occasionally touching 94 MPH – but for some reason, possibly shoulder discomfort, refused to throw anything but a fastball and a change-up. His first 2010 outing had him TOPPING at 90 MPH and throwing around half of his first pitches for strikes. I do understand, pitchers add velocity as the season goes on – but 4-6 MPH? Thats almost hard to believe it will be reclaimed as the wear and tear of the season weighs on his right shoulder. The only positive note was he was throwing his slider, and it was getting swings-and-misses.
Is his final destination in the bullpen? It is too early to tell. If Maine can stay around 92 MPH, learn how to repeat his mechanics and throw strikes and as he did in his first start of 2010, however disastrous throw his breaking balls for strikes, he could become a solid 4-5 starter with 12 wins a year and a 4.30 or so ERA. His flyball ways and decreased velocity will really make it hard for him to play in any of the smaller parks in the league, so his trade value is limited to either a pitching guru’s reclamation project, or the new Brian Stokes – and if the latter comparison becomes true, who’s the Gary Matthews Jr. we get for him?
If Omar Minaya has any idea what he’s doing – he may be giving GMJ playing time so that he can increase his trade value and pickup an insurance starter. Lets hope Maine can bounce back for the sake of the bullpen.
About the Author: Sean Kenny
Sean Kenny is a student/writer currently attending school at the City College of New York. For more Mets news, notes and thoughts follow him on twitter @TheSeanKenny
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Good article, Maine has not just lost his stuff…. he’s lost his desire!!!
Where do you get off questioning John Maine’s desire?
Do you recall that he wanted to pitch with the bone spur in his arm from the bullpen for the Mets? I have never questioned Maine’s desire or motivation to play.
I am going to give him at least 5 to 6 starts before I start criticizing too much. He will be prone to HRs, as he always was, but I think his velocity will return slightly. He topped out at 91, and his fastball sat at 89-90. I expect him to get back to 92-94. I don’t think the bullpen is an ideal destination for Maine. He has to start, and I expect him to improve, and especially when he’s pitching at Citi Field.
I get off making my comment about John’s desire, because all you have to do is look at him. Not his performance although I think that’s not looking so good at the moment either….. but look at him on the mound. His expresions his whole physical deminor. It’s not the same as it was in 06 07 or 08 for that matter. I don’t know what’s going on with him but it almost looks like he’s lost his energy level.
1st I’m a big Maine fan… I like the guy very much, but he needs to prove himself this year. 2nd What I saw last night I don’t believe was just opening day jitters. It scared me!
i actually agree with you. when i see john maine out there on the mound he looks depressed and tired, like he doesnt want to be there pitching. idk what his reasons are, maybe he did lose his desire, or maybe the bad results are getting the best of him. but he doesnt seem excited out there. i know john maine is not a smiling type of guy, but he doesnt show any emotions that suggests he is mad or happy. hes just depressed all the time.
There’s an alternative analysis:
If as M. claims, he feels great, then why should we not consider the strong possibility that he will at least get stronger as his starts increase?
I share the worry and skepticism about wear and tear, but I wonder why you don’t think his best for this season may well be yet to come.
Incidentally, a lot of what Maine did and didn’t do in 09 has to be attributable to discomfort and injury. Therefore it may not be that sensible to throw this in as part of his overall declining stats.
I may be very wrong in assessing Maine, but I am going to give him the first half of the season to prove himself. I certainly expect him to begin pitching better soon. He did not look good last night.
He looked horrendous yesterday.. but again, I wasn’t surprised, I’ve said it all along, he’s nothing but a 1 pitch pony who will last 5 innings coz he’ll reach his pitch count by then..
Guys, this guy and oliver perez were shoe ins, in the deals to bring jorge julio and roberto hernandez here, to be counting on this guys is ludacris yet our gm thinks they should be counted on.. so be it, that’s what we got and we’ll see what happens..
John Maine blows. I don’t care what his desire is. He is a 5 inning pitcher. All us Peterson haters should tip our cap to a guy who did the impossible. Got 15 wins out of Maine AND Ollie. He deserves an award for that. Unfortunately this feat has ruined the mets, because they keep crossing their fingers and hoping it will happen again, to the tune of about 40 million bucks. They should have dumped these clowns by now. Naine has a crappy delivery and will never hit his spots consistently. He never has. He got by with a plus fastball for five and a third every game. Now he throws 89 mph. He has breakdowns in concentration all the time. And he will kill our bullpen this year..
He’s a crappy pitcher who went 6-1 at Citi last year w/ an ERA under 3.00 while he was feeling constant discomfort.
Just lucky, I guess.
Russell,
Last year was last year, he was hurt for most part and on the road he was attrocious, and don’t compare last year with what’s gonna happen this year please, coz if u are we as fans might as well stop watching coz we’re gonna win 72 games, dwright will hit 10 homers and the injuries will plague us again..
He’s just not that good, and him and perez as each start passes are making rick peterson look like a f*ing genious who took these 2 sub par pitchers and made them into 15 game winners..
i never undesrtood why the mets fired rick peterson? he was a great pitching coach. definately better than warthen.
Peterson = Numbers, Guru Kinda guy – a real brainy pitching coach, micromanages the game. Brilliant pitching coach, but no Dave Duncan. It was part of the Willie Randolph house-cleaning.
I agree with that. I liked peterson. He seemed to be the only one to keep Maine and Perez in Line!!
The Mets have become adept at ruining promising young power arms, by rushing them through the minors and promoting them before they are developed and ready to succeed in the majors. This happens because Omar is overmatched as a GM and operates out of desperation and incompetence. He has ruined Maine by promoting him to the majors before his secondary pitches had been refined. He did the same thing to Bobby Parnell, and now he is destroying Mejia’s potential in the exact same way. The guy (Omar) is obviously too stupid to learn from his mistakes, it’s a shame that we as Mets fans must suffer so mightily because of the way this pathetic organization is run.
I love john maine but I believe he needs a change of scenary. He has the stuff but lost the confidence. Maybe its the team or maybe its because of the city. He needs to suck it up and act like he wabts to be here.
If anything I believe milawkee would bring him in, but I don’t know what we would get back for him. Peterson would love to have him back. Regardless, he needs to make pitches and if it means. Going back to the fastball and throeing the change and slider to throw hitters off then that’s what he needs to do.
He’s a MET right now, so u go out there and root for him because you ARE met fans, or so some of u say u are….
LET’S GO METS!!!!
Andy
How about castillo and maine for rickey weeks??!! I know it won’t happen coz the milwaukee gm is not as stupid as our gm but hey, we can dream..
Weekes is a walking injury – its bad for business. I could see a trade to Seattle since they have a weak rotation. Safeco is a big flyball park and with a good defense, he could pay off. The prospects they’d get in return would probably just be triple-a fodder.
Andy, I don’t know how you can say he has “the stuff”. Maine is throwing his fastball in the high 80′s, he has no curveball, a lame change-up that floats over the heart of the plate, and a mediocre slider. So where is the stuff? And if he’s so talented, how come he sucks so bad? I don’t think you know what your looking at when he pitches, did you even watch the game last nite? He was putrid and we are never going to win anything as long as we are running him out there every fifth day. Yes, I agree he should get a change of scenery, and if the Mets could get anything at all in return for him, I would love to see Maine traded. He’s awful.
I would be thrilled to be rid of Maine and Perez and get nothing in return. I would not want to play defense behind either of them. But the Mets have nothing else. Mejia is not ready to start in the bigs and they have turned him into a reliever anyway. Plus, they are stuck with Ollie and Maine. If they feel compelled to keep Green (and Omar) because they are getting 1 mill, they are certainly not letting these two go. They have been waiting on these guys for ages and refuse to cut bait or find suitable replacements.
meow
My patience is wearing thin with Maine. The Mets brass keeps talking about what he and Ollie did in 07. That will NEVER happen again with either one of them in a Mets uniform.
Perhaps his facial expressions come from knowing that he will never get the same deal that Perez got. John Maine is nothing more than a Nelson Figueroa type pitcher…a long reliever, emergency starter.
Hopefully the Mets new manager will see this.
sorry Jerry, but i think we NEED
Sorry Jerry but I think we NEED to go in another direction.
That Jennry Mejia in the bullpen thing rubs me the wrong way.
Perez and Maine and PRAY FOR RAIN