Although Tom Petty wrote his classic song, ‘The Waiting (is the hardest part)’ over 20 years ago, this songs rings true today. Am I the only one tired of waiting for John Maine to develop into what we all expected?
He came onto the scene in 2006 and showed promise, potential and a bright future. Now 3 years removed from his debut he is still labeled as one who has promise, potential and a bright future. Will this ever be reached?
Very few pitchers burst onto the scene and have an impact their rookie year. Our own Doc Gooden was an exception. Others that come to mind are Fernando Valenzuela in 81 and Mark ‘The Bird’ Fidrych in 76. But most pitchers, even the great ones, take a few seasons to develop. Tom Seaver was spectacular in his rookie year but only became better, winning the Cy Young Award in his 3rd season. Others like Curt Schilling take even longer. Schilling spent his 20’s struggling with mediocrity. It was not until his 30’s when he ‘learned’ how to pitch and became one of the best big game pitchers in the majors. His post-season winning percentage of .846 (11-2) is the highest in history of any pitcher with at least 10 decisions.
It takes time to learn the game and learn the hitters. One has to become a ‘pitcher’ and not a ‘thrower.’ However, John Maine has shown none of this. And he needs to!
His debut with us came on May 2, 2006 against Washington where he allowed 4 ER on 6 hits in 5 1/3 IP. Four days later he was placed on the DL with inflammation in his right middle finger.
Overall, 2006 was a great year for John. He went on to establish the Mets rookie record of 26 scoreless innings. He made 15 starts and compiled a strong 3.60 ERA, averaging 7.1 K’s for every 9 innings. He also was our surprise starter in Game One of the LDS vs. the Dodgers. He displayed that potential and promise. Mets fan saw him as a legitimate #2. However, over time, John has not really improved. He is still a thrower, not a pitcher. He has not grown at all in 4 seasons and is no more of a force now then he was as a rookie, maybe even less. Not only have his numbers not improved but they have actually gotten worse.
His ERA has risen each year from 3.60 to 3.91 to 4.18 to 4.43. His K/9 has decreased from 7.1 in 06 to 6.1 in 09. He is walking more batters now then he used to, going from 3.3 in his rookie season to 4.2 last year. He also needs to learn how to
conserve pitches. One of his big shortcomings has been his inability to pitch deep into games. Lets face it. We all know that when he starts a game our bullpen will get a lot of work that day. Last year, he pitched into the 7th inning only twice. In 08, just 5 times. And even in 2007, where he made a career high 32 starts, only 12 times he made it to the 7th inning.
In all fairness to John, he has been injured. But this also only serves to question his true value to our team. He’s been on the DL 3 times in less then a season and a half. He has averaged only 125 IP, a pitiful number for someone supposedly a legitimate starter. He has recorded just 36 wins in that time for an average of just 9 per year. Is that acceptable for someone who we expect (and more importantly NEED) to have out there every 5th day?
As we head into the 2010 season, our Mets are filled with more questions then ever before. And the biggest question is our pitching. We all know what a healthy Johan is capable of. With Mike Pelfrey we hope he will bounce back from the disappointing 09 campaign. Oliver Perez? What can we say about him? But John Maine is a dark horse. He will be turning 29 this year and he needs to become a force in our rotation, a solid starter to follow Johan. We don’t expect him to compete for a Cy Young award but just put up good, solid numbers. Is 200 innings with 18 wins and even a 4.00 too much to ask? With respectable stats like that we do have the ability to surprise some people this season. But if Maine continues to flounder yet again, to not reach back for something extra, I see us spending a long summer counting down between Johan’s starts.
David, Jose and Carlos will be coming back from injuries. And we all know what they can do when healthy. John Maine, however, we really don’t know. After all this time, we still are not really sure what he is capable of. Can he get better? Or is this the best he‘s got? I do hope he can get better. It’s imperative for him to step up and reach that potential he supposedly has. More then ever we need him.
Well we wont really know how well he can perform until the bell rings. That said, he still is young and as long as his “stuff” is still good and if he can reclaim his command, things should be ok. He’s not a superstar pitcher but we aren’t asking Maine to be the next Seaver. Just throw stikes, keep the ball down, and stay healthy basically. It frustrates me that the fans only see talent as being superb or dismal with nothing in between. Other than Doc Gooden was the rest of the pitching staff even remotely in his same class? No. But they won. Same goes for the 69′ team. Other than Seaver the rest of the staff was good but no superstars. Have faith Mets fans!
I sincerely hope I’m wrong but I don’t think John Maine is long for this team, at least not as a starter. 2010 the way I see it is his last chance. With Santana & Perez on long term expensive contracts, with Pelfrey being the prized 1st round draft pick prospect, and with Niese knocking on the door, if Maine doesn’t solidify his spot through his performance this season I feel he is the one who will be pushed aside to bring in someone new for 2011. Whether that means to the bullpen or to another team who knows. But 2010 is put up or shut up time for Maine and I hope he knows it and that he “puts up.”
I do agree with you. That was exactly the point I was making. I do hope he steps up this year. I think he does have good stuff but exactly how long do we wait? It’s time for him to either step up or step aside.
I also wonder if perhaps he’d be further along career-wise if he would have had some guidance, be it a good pitching coach, a better manager or a mentor.
I agree with both of you. Maine is not and will never be a top of the rotation starter. We should have packaged Maine along with F-Mart for Bronson Arroyo. Then we would have at least two solid equations in the rotation rather than Johan and a dozen question marks.
The problem that I see with Maine is his inability or unwillingness to make the needed adjustments from at bat to at bat. He loves his fastball and he doesn’t mix in his other pitches enough to be as effective as he can be. Until he uses his full arsenal ( he has a decent slider and an above average curve )he will continue to struggle to pitch deep into games.
All your points are valid. The only issue I have is putting some artificial timetable on when Maine will turn it around. It’s frustrating for sure but what would be more frustrating is to say enough with Maine, trade him and watch him turn it around with another team. Not that I’m comparing his talent but that’s esentially what the Mets did with Nolan Ryan. He was a talented arm, just didn’t put it all together and what did the Mets do, well that is history. All I’m saying is never give up on a pitcher. I can’t stand when teams trade young talented arms for position players. If the Mets do deal him at least get another arm and not a 21st century version of Jim Fregosi.
Here’s a Mets fan’s worst nightmare: A healthy John Maine replacing Jamie Moyer and joining Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, et. al. Anyone really want to see that?
I totally agree with matt on this and I am from holland and I will visit 5 games this year
also looking forward to spring training can’t wait
Sorry wrong site
We can ask for 200 innings and hope for an era of 4.00 and below. But 18 wins? That’s a fantasy for most pithers an unrealistic unless the whole team really does stellar.
The problem with Maine is not that he is thrower instead of a pitcher (that’s Ollie Perez). Maine is too bright to think that way. His problem is that he has inconsistent command with his fastball and his secondary pitches aren’t where they need to be to make the fastball more effective. You can WANT to be a pitcher and not a thrower, but if you don’t have the stuff, will isn’t enough to get it done. That said, I think Maine will have a good year if he stays healthy. His stuff is too good.
Personally, I strongly believe the frustrations brought about by the trevails of our 3-ENIGMAS (Pelfrey,Perez,Maine) were all caused by the same PROBLEM…”RICK PETERSON”
The Problem stems from Peterson’s philosophy that ALL pitchers are more successful throwing at the knees(strings). While this is a general method of improving the results obtained by pitcher’s more likely to induce contact than swings/misses. Controlling contact for contact pitchers is Peterson’s methodology. Just imagine with that mantra neither Gooden or Seaver would ever attain what they did. Peterson hated curveballs forcing their elimination in favor of sliders. Peterson also shunned High Heat in favor of low contact inducing GB. Imagine ‘DOC’ being forced to abandon both his HIGH RIDER & LORD CHARLES, BOTH! All 3 of our Enigmas were Petersonized to negative results. Maine’s naturally sneaky riding fastball was forced down to the knees by Peterson. Answer me this; Where does a riding fastball end up when aimed at the knees? Actual answer: THE WHEELHOUSE! Actual reasult: THE GRANDSTANDS! Peterson’s obsession over Perez’ arm angles ignored the directionality of his frame/body. While his follow through was meandering & working against his arm angle, his pitches were scattered. Pelfrey was reinvented from a College power pitcher with a heavy sinking fastball & a nasty biting curve, he was forced to backpocket the curve in favor of a mediocre slider. btw, sinkers aimed at knees end up below resulting in BB. Rather than take what 3 pitchers had naturally & molding it into a useful repetoire, Peterson chose to breakdown their natural approaches & forcefeed pitches resulting in 3 very confused talents not likely to achieve their potential.(this philosophical difference wa exactly what caused Peterson to rejecr those that refused to be converted:Kazmir,Bell, Lindstrum) This, I understand, was Petersonization from the start of his coaching career. Is it any wonder why none of his 3 Oakland proteges have ever opted for a reunion?
We are fortunate the Omar demanded Jeff’s solution,Peterson, be fired along with Willie as his pound of flesh! Since Maine became injured shortly after Petrerson’s dismissal, his exposure to Warthen was minimized until after his return last yr. One quote, I distinctly recall from Warthen’s first Burkhardt interview regarding philosophy of pitching was Dan’s quip, “I LOVE A HIGH HARD ONE!” LET US PRAY! Maine’s first start after returning under Warthenization was 7IP,7K, 0BB!
AFT! LBM!
Warthen has also ignored Perez’ arm angles in favor of ensuring his total delivery is aimed toward home plate, not the opposing dugout.
All 3-Enigmas, look lost/confused at times since, Peterson had them do what they found UNNATURAL inatead of Naturally doing what they could.
Maine can have all the potential in the world what he lacks is stamina and health and unfortunately he won’t ever amount to much. The mets should not be counting on Maine for their rotation. If its presented to me who can log hey even 160 innings oliver perez or john maine, I would go with perez…
AYE, IP IS USELESS IT’S PITCH COUNT THAT MATERS WITH MORE STRIKES THAN BALLS HIS PITCH COUNT WILL TRANSLATE INTO DEEPER APPEARANCES.
Absolutely wrong.
Pitch counts is the downfall of this game. John Maine himself denounced pitch counts on a TV interview the other day. I’m sorry i can’t remember what show.
If you were given the pitch counts of 5 starts for example – 97, 104, 54, 78. That tells you NOTHING. Is the 104 pitches in 9 innings or 4?
On the other hand, if the last 5 years a pitcher’s innings respectively were 198, 234, etc. You get the idea. That tells you a LOT.
That’s the way the game has been over one hundred years. Pitch counts weaken pitcher’s arms and take away the true competitiveness of the game.
Back in the day we had 4 man rotations with a 5th spot starter and there were less injuries because arms were stronger.
BAYONNE, YOU’LL HAVE TO ADMIT ALONGSIDE PITCHCOUNTS IS K:BB RATIO, THE MORE K THE MORE IP IN THOSE SAME PC!
Yeah then we have scrubs replacing him in the rotation..listen his ERA has gone up since 2007….his injuries are taking a toll. Injuries take away your effectiveness. While I don’t doubt he has “potential” it might never amount to much and the mets r crazy to count on him
aye? INJURIES? NO, ONE INJURY A BONE SPUR ARTHROSCOPICALLY(minimal invasion & tissue damage) THAT was his FIRST & ONLY MLB ‘INJURY’
He, being unaccostomed to rehab, overworked with enthusiasm over tiring the recovering shoulder leading to “tired arm” diagnosis. BTW THAT’S A CONDITION NOT AN INJURY! all LOGICAL thought should indicate a return to duty, healthy, btright-eyed, bushy tailed & flaming @ 95+!
He had potential with the Orioles too but they made him a throw in on a deal. Good fastball, or, I should say, had a good fastball. His problem is an inability to focus. He can be going along fine and then it is back to back HRs or 8 straight balls. He also has no putaway pitch so he throws a ton of pitches and exits early. Starters need to go 6+ at least and Maine does not do that with any regularity. At the end of last year his fastball was flat. Even if he does get it back, I see no future for him. No other pitches.
jdon, it seems to me u’re seeing what u expect to see, OR as they say perception is fact to the perceiver…
I believe Maine hasn’t ‘lost’ ability; but between the ’06 playoffs & the end of last yr, his self confidence, as was Pelf & Perez’ was stolen by Peterson, who’s”MY WAY OR THE HI-WAY” style doesn’t work with selfconfident,accomplished pitchers(Kazmir,Bell,Lindstrum, Zito,Mulder,Hudson) mainly why the first 3 were pkgd & shipped & the final 3 never sought a reunion.
Petersonization translates to, “forget, what worked for u before, I’m gonna teach u what will work, better” therefore ewvery curveball got shelved in favor of developing a slider regardless how ineffective. Fastballs designed to strike u out are aimed for you to hit on the ground at someone(hopefully).
jdon, Maine got injured almost immediastly after Peterson was dismissed sidelining him until most of last season was past, limiting his actually working with Warthen to a minimal time for deprogramming. Too often, our pitchers struggled trying to do the unnatural to achieve what they were brainwashed into believing was their only formula for success,”Controled Contact” & NOT “PUTTING ANYONE AWAY!” This rediculous plan was developed to turn pichers with 85-89 MPH heat into successful MLB? pitchers. (those similar to Peterson in his pre-injured,developing youth) Sliders prefered over curves do to poor speed differential with non-overpowering heater aka easy recognition, sliders more easily disguised. Peterson, suddenly tuttoring pitchers with high 90s velocity, “dumbed them down if u will”. his contact preferred style tends to make mediocre pitchers better & better pitchers mediocre.
I submit this is why Pelfrey, Perez &A Maine are all “LOST BOYS” confused with nothing to turn to when they aren’t getting those knees(strings) calls.
The BRAINWASHING part comes in when they get blindfolded & concentrate on “hitting the string” during side-sessions(we’ve all seen Peterson’s brag on that exercise)!
Let’s forget about MY PERCEPTIONS let’s focus on the actual facts we know. Regardless of what Baltimore thought Maine ,may or may not develop into, johnny Maine got recalled in late ’06 with minimal Peterson exposure between acquisition & callup. he featured a “sneaky” high velocity naturally rising fastball out of an easy delivery and a respectible secondary arsenal. Perez, “the wild child” followed much similarly to Maine re Peterson exposure Perez was renowned for his wildness resulting in very uncomfortable ABs described by Chipper Jones as EFFECTIVLY WILD after a Perez induced 0 for 4 day. Even though he’d always had that effectivly wild streeak his high K accumulations as exhibited in 2004 where although he’s issued 81 BB his strikeout total of 239 resulted only 4K away drom a K:BB ratio of 3:1.OUTSTANDING!
He too Peterson sent on that illusive quest for the GB out. without pinpoint string control(an element Ollie’s always lacked)What is it we ‘know’ about BIG PELF? We know he was a College power pitcher & part of that vaunted Wichita State rotation, WHO’S COACH DESCIBED HIM AS POSSESSING 2 DISTINCT POWER PITCHES A RISER FASTALL & A HEAVY SINKER COMPLIMENTED BY A VERY EFFECTIVE DOWNER CURVE. So much so as for that same college coach to proclaim he wasn’t seeing “THE SAME PITCHER” after he’d first witnessed Big Pelf as a Pro, during Peterson’s last season. Pelf, forced to discard the Deuce & adopt the slider, the advantage of having 2 power pitches delivered on the same plane,one rising, one sinking was lost to Peterson’s strings @ the knees & natural forces. Sinkers aimed at knees tend to be balls low, risers aimed at knees tend to be souveniers.
My take on all of this is that basicly we supplied Rick Peterson with better talented(stuff) raw recruits than heis program was designed for.
BTW jdon, Maine’s final outing of last season was pretty effective vS Houstn:
DATE GAME W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO NP-S GO-AO
OCT 02 HOU 1 0 4.43 1 1 0 0 0 0 7.0 5 1 1 0 0 7 106-72 8-5
NET, 7IP 7K 0BB 5H 1ER to earn a ‘W’
MAINE’S DOMINANT HIGH RIDER, LIKE PELF’S THROWN AT KNEES RISES TO WHEELHOUSE & BECOMES, “HERE’S YOUR SOUVENIER, THANK YOU & COME AGAIN!”
jdon, I didn’t come by these observations suddenly, they actually became apparent during the ’07 Collapse, as I witnessed the failures of those 2-”FOUR LETTER” WORD PITCHERS MOTA & SOSA. though I’d never really cared for either as opponents or Mets, they both had had the ability to get the occasional required K; but in ’07 time after time w RISP, I was watching grondball after groundball sneak through with nary a K. Why? Suddenly, I was watching these 2 former firebrands “pitch to contact” lo & behold they wewre resembling our young starters more & more. Those Peterson left alone; Santana, Martinez have always been their own beast counsel. I pay Warthem’s had enough time now to deprogram these young talents from the PETERSON CULT!