29
2010
Mets Reflections: Omar’s Smile, VORP, Murph (The Awesome One), 100 Wins
An article by 
Murph Rules!
Right after the Kevin Burkhardt/Omar Minaya interview on SNY, I caught 1984 edition of Mets Yearbook. If you haven’t checked out these fantastic documentary style treats yet, you don’t know what you’re missing. I strongly urge you to try and catch them whenever they’re on. In this particular edition, longtime Mets broadcaster Bob Murphy was doing an interesting profile on Keith Hernandez, when all of a sudden he said something that completely surprised me,
“Not only does Keith Hernandez lead the Mets in batting going into the All Star break, but he’s the league leader in on-base percentage”.
Wow, who knew? How many of the fans that were originally tuned in over 25 years ago, even knew what Murph meant? It goes without saying that in addition to being the most awesomest Mets broadcaster ever, Bob Murphy was truly a man ahead of his time.
Say Cheese!
Incidentally, what was up with Omar Minaya’s glistening white smile during his interview with KB on Thursday? It kind of creeped me out and after about ten minutes into it, I found that my eyes were completely glued to his shiny white teeth. It brought this classic “Friends” episode to mind.
Healthy Or Not, Here They Come!
Omar Minaya said something about Mets starters John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez that was either ridiculously over the top or just an indication that his meds were winding down.
He said that in this years free agent market, John Lackey was a ‘difference maker, but as for the rest of the free agent starters,
“I believe that John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez, when healthy, are just as good, if not better, than some of the other starting pitchers that are or were on the free-agent market.”
So assuming everyone is “healthy”, which is exactly how he put it, Perez, Maine & Pelf are as good or better than Ben Sheets, Rich Harden, Eric Bedard, Randy Wolf and Chien-Ming Wang? Really?
Someone should tell Omar that if the Mets had “healthy” years from the five guys I mentioned the Mets would win 100 games with or without Johan. If Omar continues to make embarrassing comments like that, I’m just gonna have to lobby Jeff Wilpon for the GM job.
There’s a fly in my Veal PECOTA…
Will Leitch of New York Magazine made ten predictions based on the latest PECOTA projections on Friday. Needless to say, I have issues with Mr. Leitch and his off the wall predictions. Damn you PECOTA!
The Jason Bay signing is going to be a disaster for the Mets. His counting stats will be decent — 27 homers, 94 RBIs — but his defensive deficiencies and his low OBP (lower than Gardner’s, if you can believe that) will make him dramatically overpaid in the first year of his contract, before he starts the downward slope.
Jose Reyes will be healthy, but the Mets will still be lousy. Reyes makes a projected 640 plate appearances, hits thirteen homers, and steals 45 bases. The Mets lineup, one through four, is solid, but after Bay, the drop-off is dramatic. The best VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) from spots 5–8 is posted by Luis Castillo. Also, the third-best pitcher will be Kelvin Escobar.
Fuhgeddaboutit!
According to Jon Heyman, the Mets are interested in native New Yorker Frank Catalanotto. The 35 year old Catalanotto, batted .278 with one homerun and nine RBIs in 77 games with the Brewers, while playing left field, right field and second base. With Blanco, Cora, Matthews and Tatis already on board, Catalanotto should fit right in. In fact the Mets may win the prestigious AARP Award given each year to the team with the oldest bench in the majors. Each member receives a years supply of Centrum Silver and $25 dollars worth of valuable coupons they could use on great products like Depends, Ensure, Polident and Metamucil.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
Went to my first Mets game, a Mayors Trophy game at Shea, in '73. We beat the Yankees 8-4 and I was hooked. I marched in two Banner Day parades, and before the Grand Slam single, there was the "Hendu Can Do" grand slam - I was there. I've collected Mets memorabilia all my life and started Mets Merized Online to feed my addiction.
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PECOTA? VORP? I think that all these stats out there are just what they are, guesses. You can take an avg of any players stats over the years and get the same info so why do you need all these statistics and analysis. The game takes place on the field not on a calculator and how can you measure injuries and Castillo’s drop and it’s effect on Mets?
I say VORP you! Good stuff Joe as always. Yeah, those pearly whites on Omar, absolutely right on. The only thing that freaks me out more than that is Beltrans’ mole.
Your surprised about OBA in 1985? The statistic was used as far back as at least the 60s. It just wasn’t worshiped as it is today.
Well if Will Leitch’s PECOTA projections didn’t upset you enough I suggest you check out the recent article over at FanGraphs that suggests that Josh Willingham and Jason Bay are “the same player.”
If so, I wonder why the Red Sox didn’t just trade Manny Ramirez for Willingham?
2 questions and a comment.
1. New York Magazine has a sports section?
2. How do the come up with “PECOTA projections” anyway? With a Ouiga board and a Magic 8 Ball?
PECOTA, VORP, (sigh) baseball is getting too stat happy.
Joe you did make me smile when you mentioned Bob Murphy. My all time favorite Mets broadcaster.
Oh, and add Smoltz to this team and that AARP award is a lock!
The Mets interest in Catalanotto makes me wonder if there is still a trade out there.Maybe the Mets picked up Matthews because Pagan is being traded??? Also what do you think if the Mets sign Barajas?? Could Santos also be in on a trade.Or is Omar just making sure if there is injuries the Mets will have major league bench players to fill in?? Instead of prospects not yet ready for the majors??
Will Leicht throws like a girl and can’t reach home plate.
Will Leicht places his fingers around the bat when he squares for a bunt.
Will Leicht flinches while playing pepper.
Will Leicht chews on his glove while wandering through the clovers in right field.
Will Leicht’s cup is too large and his white cleats are too small and never smudged.
Will Leicht uses a chin strap on his batting helmut and eye-black during night games.
Will the Chill is a real battler – you can tell by the way he squints toward the scoreboard while strolling back to the pine after he gets caught looking.
Acquiring Catalanotto would have made sense 10 years ago.
KelviM Escobar actually does have a shot at being the 3rd best starter on this rotation!
Joe, your bias is showing, your usual “spot on” reflections missed the qualifying caviat in Omar’s evaluations wherby he specifically referred to the performances of 2007 & 2008 from those on roster compared to those available after Lackey. Since both Maine & Perez were 15g winners in ’07 with Pelfrey @ 13Ws in ’08. you’d have to agree that the Marquis,Pineiro,Sheets,Wolf,Garland,Bedard,Wang,Smoltz crew isn’t guaranteed supeerior to those perfomances. I’m one who has stated here repeatedly that there is a marked difference betwen pitching to your history and pitching to your talent. with pitchers in their 20s it’s usually better to evaluate on talent not history. Quite obvuiously nearly every one of those f/a alternatives has considerably better historical stats than our 3 ENIGMAS. Arguably at this point of their careers I likely would evaluate the upside of even Ollie’s pure potential talent over that of venerable Smoltz’s pure talent/ability in his 40s. While I may be wrong, I doubt Smoltzie can manage 95+ through an entire half inning; but Oliie should maintain that velocity. Harnessing it is a different measure. Is it possible Perez could have another 15W season? possible; but not likely. I certainly doubt Smoltz or even Sheets is capable of 15W as even a possibility(Sheets’ career high is 13Ws)
Since the Mets seam to be so high on Daniel Murphy. What do you think if the Mets would hire Keith Hernandez as a special instructor in spring training for Murphy and Ike Davis and other 1st Baseman. Could this help them learn the position on playing it an positioning them self.
Moose, while Mex remains one of my favorite all-time Mets & I know Bobby V. once pleaded for his help assisting Olerud in converting to Bobby’s innovative off the bag positioning, I certainly don’t get the feeling Keith likes returning to the uni/field in any capacity I peronally was quite disappointed to hear him extoll those vets that assisted in hisearly career when he freely admitted not being so inclined to pass on his wealth of knowledge.
Anyway, it was certainly an excellent idea i doubt Keith is wanting to explore. His position would likely change if Duncan were being considered for 1B(lol)