Comments on: Homeruns vs. Runs Scored – A Decade Worth Of Evidence

By: theonlymaskman

theonlymaskman — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 14:36:32 +0000

A very good article. It certainly questions the strategy of adopting a small ball approach in a pitcher’s park.

By: K Maxx

K Maxx — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 14:10:59 +0000

A lineup like that is exactly what the Mets should aspire to. Unfortunately, after their top 4 it all goes down hill for the Mets. And that’s assuming that Wright bats second when Beltran returns. Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Bay.

By: t agee

t agee — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 13:43:54 +0000

I think it’s a very well done spreadsheet. You really can’t derive too much from looking at only the best and worst of anything and ignoring everything else. Wonder what the spreadsheet would reveal from the pitching side (run prevention) What would have the highest correlation to actual runs scored? Probably the same thing right? Therefore it is Power plus OB%. One way OB% clearly helps in the HR totals is it gets your HR hitters more at bats as the lineup turns over more frequently ie your 3-4-5 hitters get 5 ab’s as opposed to 4 per game. Having HR hitters in your lineup who in addition to hitting HR’s also get on base at a higher than league avg is also important as your 5 and 6 hitters will have someone on when they deliver. As I said very few things stand alone in baseball.

By: sarge

sarge — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 02:37:11 +0000

I agree JoeD and this year (2009) was a perfect example. Mets could not even hit and run or use speed cause they did not have the right combination of players. Some extra power would of made the difference in winning more games instead of waiting for Castillo to drive in a run from 2nd or 3rd with an infield single or a pop up to OF. Small sample size but you need some power. What was Nats diff bet 2000 and 2009 with Dunn?

By: stedj34

stedj34 — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 02:09:05 +0000

Ok, it’s updated… The same link should still work. I added years and teams, ERA, and UZR.

By: The Stache

The Stache — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 01:35:04 +0000

Thanks, I think it would be easier to understand with the reference points filled in.

By: stedj34

stedj34 — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 01:14:59 +0000

What does it matter what year and team it is? We’re only looking at runs vs HR’s, or Runs vs AVG etc.

Yes, Joe used ten years of stats, but it was only the best and worst teams HR-wise. There is a lot of data in between those two extremes. He “seemed” to dispel the notion that you can win without HR’s, but as you can tell with the larger sample size on my spreadsheet (120 teams vs 20 teams), the correlation between HR’s and runs was only .62, which is not particularly strong.

However, I did notice I made a mistake in my earlier post. I meant to say, “As you can see from the spreadsheet linked to below Spd, ISO, and HR show the smallest correlation (.84). and OPS’s correlation is an astounding .947.

I’ll continue to work on the spreadsheet, adding years, and possibly team names and win data.

By: The Stache

The Stache — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 00:59:45 +0000

That link shows a chart with stats but no teams, years, etc. What was it supposed to illustrate? Also, Joe used ten years of stats and you say that’s a small samples size? He seemed to dispel the notion that you can win without homeruns.

By: stedj34

stedj34 — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 23:02:07 +0000

This is way too small of a sample size to make any meaningful observations. Typically the teams with the lowest number of HR’s suffer in just about every aspect of the game.

I took data for every team from fangraphs from the years 2006-2009 (4 years) and looked at the correlation between various stats and runs scored. The stats I looked at were AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO, Spd, and HR. As you can see from the spreadsheet linked to below, Spd, ISO, and HR show the smallest correlation (.80). OPS’s correlation is an astounding .947.

Here’s the spreadsheet: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Am6CDhtI09zldF9MWEdOeFhmblBZenNBRGRzcVI4WlE&hl=en

By: Nester

Nester — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 22:16:19 +0000

Teams need a combination of all the different aspects of the game. They need a balanced approach. The OBP thing is overblown. The ideal lineup should look like this:

1. .375+ OBP, speed
2. .375+ OBP, above avwerage speed, good contact rate
3. .900 OPS (on-base plus slugging)
4. .500 SLG
5. .475 SLG
6. .450 SLG
7 and 8. Whatever you can get.

You can still win a World Series without great speed or defense, but you won’t win anything without power.

By: SpinalRemains

SpinalRemains — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 21:55:16 +0000

Thank you so much for posting this! This is as obvious as it gets. Of course your entire team need not be made up of the prototypical slugger types (30+HR, 150+K), but a well balanced team NEEDS power in the middle of the lineup. It’s always been a winning forumla and always will be. I don’t care how many stats agents and aging players can come up with. The bootom line is that guys with power who drive in 110 or more runs are paid the most because they provide their teams the best chance to win.

The only teams and managers who claim that HR aren’t everything, are the same teams/managers who don’t provide enough and therefore have to justify their baseball existence. HRs = more runs. Please let’s all stop with OBP being the new baseball deity. It has its place and it is not in the middle of the order!

By: Mike Lloyd

Mike Lloyd — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 20:20:55 +0000

I agree somewhat Alex. A good point you’ve made in one part. High OBP for the first 2-3 guys, then get the big sticks swinging. It’s fairly obvious that power helps teams win. This based just from Joe D’s sample of the previous 10 years.
I do differ about speed and defense making no sense. I believe you definitely need good solid defense, especially, “up the middle”. If you have good defenders at Catcher, 2nd, SS, and Centerfield, sometimes you can have a good hit, poor field guy slotted into another position. Speed helps with the defense and keeps the bases clear as usually power guys when they don’t hit HR’s, become station to station runners. They are all important. (Speed, defense and power).

By: Alex in CT

Alex in CT — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 19:25:12 +0000

I dont understand why it’s so difficult for so many baseball fans to understand the importance of having 3-4 power hitters on the team. This whole speed and defense thing makes no sense, and I think all these new stats that focus on walks and OBP have turned the game on its heels. Give me two good OBP guys at the top of the order, but give me power hitters in the 3-6 spots.

By: t agee

t agee — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 19:04:07 +0000

Very hard to argue with these numbers. Pitching and lock down D can keep a game close but a 3 run HR can break it open. Of course you have to have men on base to hit a 3 run HR. Few things in baseball stand completely on their own.