I fear the Fish . As currently constituted the the Marlins are a very good ball club. They finished 87-75 in 2009 and have the potential to do better in 2010. This is quite a feat considering they have the lowest payroll team in all of baseball. Last year they started the season at $36M. They have a great lineup with solid top of the rotation starting pitching. Their main weakness is relief pitching.
Starting Pitching: The rotation starts with Josh Johnson, one of the best pitchers in the National League. He is on the cusp of being a true ace. He was 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA, a WHIP of 1.16 and 8.2 Ks per 9 innings. Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez are next in the pitching order. Nolasco had an ERA of over 5 but is a strikeout pitcher with 9.5 per 9 innings of work. At only 27 years old, he has the potential to be a solid #2 starter. Sanchez, only 25 years old, was great as rookie in 2006, even throwing a no hitter. Since then he’s spent time in the minors and the DL. He finally came back in the second half of last year and pitched well. At the back end of the rotation, expectations are high for 6’8″ southpaw Sean West and Chris Volstad. Both are only 23 years old. It is anticipated that they will improve on last year’s rookie seasons.
Relief Pitching: The Marlins definitely need bullpen help. Closer, Leo Nunez was mediocre, blowing 7 of 33 save opportunities. Set up man, Dan Meyer was impressive, giving up only 47 hits and striking out 56 batters in 58 innings. If the Marlins could trade Dan Uggla for, or sign a couple of solid relief pitchers, it would go a long way toward improving their roster. And they do have replacement alternatives for Uggla.
Offense: If Dan Uggla is traded they could move Emilio Bonafacio from 3rd to 2nd base, and Jorge Cantu from 1st base to 3rd base. Rookie Gaby Sanchez is slated to be their new first baseman. He’s had two big minor league seasons in a row; 2008 at AA and 2009 at AAA. The Marlins always seem to have young studs coming up which is why they can trade their higher paid stars to continually restock their farm system. And don’t forget shortstop Hanley Ramirez. He is arguably the second best player in the NL and keeps getting better.
Even at catcher, John Baker quietly had a nice season, batting .271 with 9 HR and 50 RBI in 112 games. He also threw out 27% of base stealers.
In the outfield, 23 year old Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan is the left fielder. With a full season under his belt, he could be ready to be a star. Last year he hit .321 with a .390 OBP. Center fielder Cameron Maybin, only 22 years old had a great year in AAA ball in 2009 before his call up. He should improve. Right fielder Cody Ross plays solid defense and hits for power.
Opinion: The Marlins could contend for the division next year. In any event they will be a tough foe for the Mets to overtake.
That’s a rather optimistic look for them. Sure, they’ve had some success grooming young prospects in the past, but that doesn’t mean these guys are going to come in and hit. They’ve got some nice pitching, but it’s not necessarily steady or consistant, and the pen is exploitable. I think 87 wins was the top of their game (and considering the Mets will be like 20-30 games better, that number will naturally drop) and 87 doesn’t like get even second in the division with the Phillies probably getting 87-90 for second place.
Ceetar, If anyone is being optimistic I think it’s you. The Marlins were the ones winning 87 games last year. Young players are more likely to improve than to slip backward and I don’t see that happening. I have a great amount of respect for an organization that can have the lowest payroll in baseball and rack up 87 wins. Over the last three seasons we have won 5 more games that the Marlins and with the amount of money they have to work with I think that is pretty impressive. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a diehard Mets fan but I think you have to be realistic. Until we put up the numbers and finish ahead of the Marlins I think we better not take them for granted. Danny, I think you’re right on.
The Marlins are the peskiest team in the NL East and will be this upcoming season.
I keep spouting on and on on a bunch of forums: forget the free agents, and spend your money on the Marlins scouting staff. I can’t think of another team that does what they do: constantly casting off great players and replacing them with equally good ones. Imagine if we had the kind of players that the Marlins dug up, supplemented with our payroll!
Shamik, There is one other that comes to mind, Minnesota Twins!
Excellent article. Thanks.
The Marlins are a fine team, accomplished with a small payroll. Comparing Opening Day 2009 payrolls (salaries plus pro-rated signing bonuses)from COTS, here is how the teams stack up:
Mets $149 Million
Phillies $113 Million
Atlanta $97 Million
Washington $60 Million
Marlins $37 Million payroll.
Florida is getting a lot of bang for the team’s bucks.
I think the Mets and the Nationals will be battling for fourth place. Omar just made a good signing in Jason Bay. But he was like Rip VanWinkle until recently. The Mets need more good pitching and innings eaters to be more competitive. Other teams signed key players. The NL East has improved a lot.
P.S.: A slightly different payroll analysis (also from COTS) is found here:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ew-fwu2XT3cpPRtt9qIGw
I don’t know about that, I the Mets have a better offense than the Braves, and although the Braves do have a formidable rotation, it can be beat and their bullpen is very suspect. I think we can be legit contenders for third place in the East. That last sentence is also incredibly pathetic considering our payroll is well above anyone elses.
I’m a Mets fan through and through. But I try to peel back the PR nonsense and do an analysis of the talent we have — sometimes the difference is large.
The Marlins are a disgrace to major league baseball. If the Mets called up 8 rookies a season, chances are more of theirs would work out too.
They’ve got some nice players, but their offense is hardly unbeatable. But Maybin wasn’t really that good, and they’ll be hoping rookies succeed yet again, and that’s not always the case. Never mind if anyone gets injured in the rotation, and you know they’re not going to spend money to improve, as they pocket millions every year.
its funny how ppl fail 2 realize we are getting 2 mor FAs coming of injury in beltran and reyes, and i dont think omar is done just yet, its all but certain molina will be a met, i mean he really doesnt have any other suitors, and i feel they will bring in a pitcher either by FA or trade. plus we are still about a month away from spring training.
im tired of hearing ppl complaining that omar hasnt done nothing blah blah blah, i mean since when did gettin things done in a hurry during the offseason win u the world series?? we cant all be da glutten yankees and spend a gazillion dollars on whoever juss 2 get the fans off their baq. if we go into spring training with only the bay aqcuisition then that wud be a reason 2 be upset, but until then mets fans relax and stop panicing, omar is gettin things done (i hope).
Young talent is the key and the Marlins show that. Where is the Mets scouting staff to identify and sign similar talent?
Omar and the deposed Tony Berazard would have a lot of explaining to do !!!
Not much to say about it.